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Orlando City’s Hot and Cold Streaks Tell the Story of the 2024 Season

An evaluation of scoring trends this season, with a focus on Orlando City’s recent hot and cold streaks.

Published

2 years ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

There is a story — maybe real, maybe apocryphal — of a college statistics professor who asked his students to go home and flip a coin 100 times, and then then to write down on each flip whether it was heads (H) or tails (T). He would then walk around the classroom during the next class and would correctly call out whether a student had actually done the exercise or they had made up the results, just by looking at their Hs and Ts.

His reasoning was that while over the long haul the ratio of heads to tails will be approximately 50:50, in small samples it does not work like that. Those who made up their homework would not put a run of 5,6, 7 or more heads in a row, for example, but those who actually flipped would see the occasional long run.

A similar idea is shown on the recent numbers board above roulette wheels in every casino, where it’s often jarring to see many red or black numbers on display consecutively because the mind is trained to assume that it should be even between the colors since there are 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers on the wheel. I may have played a lot of roulette in my life. We need not go into more detail.

Is there going to be a point to this? Yes. Coins, roulette wheels, rock/paper/scissors, they all generally fall out to similar ratios overall, but in short numbers, they are streaky. Athletes and teams are no different, it happens to them as well.

Baseball is the sport most associated with statistics, and in particular people talk most frequently about a batting average, which is calculated by the number of hits divided by the number of at bats. Three hits out of 10 at bats is a .300 batting average, but hitters who bat around that number rarely get three hits out of every ten at bats if you look at a list of 10 at bat chunks during a season. I could really torture this with examples, but you came here to read about soccer. My point is that players and teams run hot and cold far more often than data would indicate when you are looking at aggregated stats, and Orlando City is no exception.

Thus far this season, Orlando City has had two streaks of three losses and one draw in four matches, and also one streak of four straight wins in four matches. Ramiro Enrique scored a goal in six straight matches, and Pedro Gallese and the defense went a little more than 2.5 straight games without giving up a goal. The offense scored five goals in five MLS games during March and then 14 goals in five MLS games during July. It is not quite to the level of Will Ferrell in Old School, but there has definitely been some streaking going on during the 2024 Orlando City season.

Enrique’s streak was particularly hard to fathom, because according to fbref.com’s tracking prior to the initial goal against D.C. United that started his streak, his career average in games for Banfield of Argentina and Orlando City had been 0.24 goals per 90 minutes, and then all of a sudden he accelerated to 1.34 goals per 90 minutes during his six-match run. Subsequent to that, he has now gone consecutive games without a goal, which feels like a major letdown, when in fact, if you look across his career, it is actually not that surprising. Including his recent run of form, Enrique is now right around 0.33 goals per 90 minutes for his career, or about one goal per every three games…exactly what he has produced in his last three matches.

Was the streak a new normal? Probably not. Were the last two scoreless games a new normal? Probably not, but such is the nature of a streak. On the whole, it washes out in the numbers, but in the moment it felt amazing as a fan in July and felt particularly vexing as a fan more recently. How dare Enrique not continue to score like Messi in his prime for more than six matches!

On a broader scale, as I mentioned earlier, Orlando City as a team was scorching hot in July, scoring 14 goals in five MLS matches and 18 goals in all competitions (six matches), for a nice tidy three-goals-per-game average during the full month. This has been followed by a freezing cold (thus far) August, and looking at the data around the Lions’ performance provides a great view of the statistical concept of regression to the mean.

The averages through the first 24 matches (Concacaf Champions Cup and MLS) of the season are in the first row below. Then there was a big improvement during July (MLS and Leagues Cup), the second row. Finally, August (MLS and Leagues Cup), the third row, has been well below the initial averages, meaning that the full season averages in the fourth row are basically the same as they were in the first row, despite an outstanding July and a thus far not-so-outstanding August. (Note: own goals are not included in the data):

There are always many factors than can lead to success or struggle on the field, but over the long haul of a season, all teams have highs and lows, and the target is really to minimize the lows and to build toward having the highs towards the end of the season, when the playoffs start. This was certainly the case for the 2023 Orlando City team, which went 11-2-2 during its final 15 matches of the MLS regular season after going 7-7-5 during the first 19 matches.

With eight matches remaining in the season, the 2024 version of Orlando City could still come close to that 2023 team’s season-ending run of form, as even with the loss last week the Lions are still 4-1-2 in their last seven matches and one of only three Eastern Conference teams with 10 or more points in their last five matches. Losing at Sporting Kansas City hurt, as that was a winnable game against a bottom-of-the-table team, but the Lions can get back on the right foot (yes, even you, Facundo Torres, can get on the right foot) at home on Saturday against Nashville. When your opponent comes into the match having lost its last seven games in a row in MLS play by a combined score of 18-3, that is a game you need to win, especially when you are playing at home and coming off a frustrating loss.

To do so the Lions will need to blow up the idea that their July form was just a hot streak that will be immediately offset by an August cold streak, netting them out in the middle. The 2023 season is a blueprint follow to avoid regression to the mean and to find sustained success. And with three straight home games coming up, we will quickly see whether the game in Kansas City was an aberration, or another flashing indicator that this season will continue to be one of hot and cold streaks.

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. San Diego FC: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More

The Lions welcome San Diego FC to Orlando for the first meeting ever between the two clubs.

Published

11 hours ago

on

September 5, 2026

By

Image of Joran Gerbet playing against Minnesota United.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to your match preview and live thread for a Saturday night matchup between Orlando City (7-11-4, 25 points) and San Diego FC (8-8-6, 30 points) at Inter.co Stadium in Orlando (7:30 p.m., Apple TV). It’s the first-ever meeting between these two teams from different conferences

Here’s what you need to know ahead of the match.

History

As mentioned above, tonight’s meeting between the Lions and San Diego is the first in the series history, so there is no history. The Lions are 2-2-1 against Western Conference teams this season, which means little to nothing in this particular match, and San Diego is going to be Orlando City’s final opponent from the opposite conference in MLS regular-season play this season.

Overview

The Lions are coming off a wild 3-3 road draw at Minnesota United a week ago, in which Daryl Dike and Antoine Griezmann scored on either side of halftime on Orlando’s first two shot attempts to put their team up 2-0 in the 64th minute. Minnesota stormed back with three goals off defensive errors in a four-minute span to take a late 3-2 lead. Just when the Loons appeared to be headed for all three points, Tyrese Spicer scored in stoppage time, forcing Minnesota to split the points. Orlando has a modest 1-0-1 unbeaten streak entering tonight, and the Lions are 5-4-2 at home in 2026.

San Diego is coming off a 3-1 home win over the LA Galaxy despite having Jeppe Tverskov sent off. Tonight’s visitors have won two straight games, but both were at home. They lost their last home game 3-1 at Portland on Aug. 19 and are 2-5-3 away from home this season.

The key for Orlando City tonight will be to mark Anders Dreyer, which is far easier said than done, as he has emerged as one of the league’s best playmakers. His eight goals and 11 assists give him 19 total goal contributions to lead his team. Marcus Ingvartsen is Dreyer’s favorite teammate to combine with, as the Danish forward has converted 11 times, leading San Diego in goals, and has added five assists. However, Ingvartsen is listed as out with a lower body injury. Midfielder Onni Valakari has chipped in four goals and seven assists.

“We respect San Diego, but as well we prepare our game,” Orlando City interim head coach Martin Perelman said ahead of the match. “We know how strong we are, especially at home, so now we go.”

Orlando City will be without Braian Ojeda (foot) and Adrian Marin (thigh), while Bernardo Rhein (thigh), has been upgraded to questionable. San Diego will be without the aforementioned Ingvartsen (lower body) and Tverskov (suspension).

Match Content

Official Lineups:

Orlando City (4-4-2)

Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.

Defenders: Bernardo Rhein, Robin Jansson, David Brekalo, Griffin Dorsey.

Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Joran Gerbet, Eduard Atuesta, Justin Ellis.

Forwards: Antoine Griezmann, Daryl Dike.

Bench: Javier Otero, Zakaria Taifi, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Luis Otavio, Tiago, Marco Pasalic, Martin Ojeda, Tyrese Spicer.

San Diego FC (4-3-3)

Goalkeeper: C.J. dos Santos.

Defenders: Kieran Sargeant, Ian Murphy, Manu Duah, Oscar Verhoeven.

Midfielders: Gabriel Pirani, Anibal Godoy, Alejandro Alvarado.

Forwards: Elias Achouri, Onni Valakari, Anders Dreyer.

Bench: Duran Ferree, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, Christopher McVey, Bryan Zamble, David Vazquez, Ian Pilcher, Alex Mighten, Bryce Duke, Amahl Pellegrino.

Referees:

REF: Joe Dickerson.
AR1: Corey Parker.
AR2: Justin Howard.
4TH: Rodrigo Albuquerque.
VAR: Daniel Radford.
AVAR: Jeff Muschik.

How to Watch

Match Time: 7:30 p.m.

Venue: Inter.co Stadium — Orlando.

TV/Streaming: Apple TV.

Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).

Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.

Enjoy the match. Go City!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. San Diego FC: Three Keys to Victory

Here’s what Orlando needs to do in order to return to winning ways against San Diego.

Published

1 day ago

on

September 4, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

After the disappointment of two dropped points against Minnesota on Saturday, Orlando City is back home with an opportunity to get things back on track. The Lions need to keep picking up points if they want to keep pace in an increasingly crowded Eastern Conference, and Saturday’s game is a good chance to start September off on the right note. San Diego FC stands in the way of that good start, and what follows are three things that I believe Orlando needs to do in order to emerge victorious from this game.

Stay Strong on the Left

The left side of the defense has been a question mark for the Lions for much of the year. Adrian Marin, Bernardo Rhein, and Zakaria Taifi have all spent time at left back lately and have done so with varying degrees of success. Regardless of who suits up there on Saturday, that area of the field will be under scrutiny once again, since they’ll be tasked with stopping San Diego right winger Anders Dreyer. He has eight goals and 11 assists in 21 appearances this year, has played 60 key passes during that time, and is generally the lynchpin through which the San Diego offense operates. He hasn’t quite been on the same pace that saw him bag 19 goals and 19 assists in the regular season last year, but with four goal contributions in his last three MLS appearances, he’s extremely capable of wreaking havoc from the wing. A lot of the goals OCSC has conceded lately have come down the left side of the defense, and if that area of the field can’t be taken care of better, the Lions will likely be in for a difficult night.

Do Damage in Transition

Orlando’s current style of positionless, fluid, attacking soccer is at its best when it comes up against teams that want to come out and play. It struggles mightily against defensive bunkers but shines when the Lions can get out and run, target open spaces, and combine with teammates in unexpected areas. Fortunately for OCSC (in theory), San Diego is a team that likes to have the ball, as it has the highest average possession in the league. That means the Lions will have opportunities to force turnovers and break the other way at pace. In order to make that happen though, OCSC will need to be both disciplined and effective when it comes to applying its press. Then, if/when the Lions win the ball, correct decision-making and clinical execution in the final third will be key to avoid letting any chances slip through their fingers (paws?).

Clean Up the Self-Inflicted Errors

Orlando has dealt with more than its fair share of general defensive struggles this year, but avoidable errors have been a particular problem in recent weeks. Whether it’s been an ill-advised challenge, passing to the opposition in the defensive third, or leaving men unmarked in the box, unnecessary mistakes have cost OCSC points time and again. Against lesser opposition it hasn’t always mattered, as the Lions were able to rescue three points against Real Salt Lake, but if Orlando wants to make a playoff push, it needs to make a habit of playing cleaner games, plain and simple. San Diego is a good team with dangerous offensive players, and Saturday’s visitors will very likely take advantage of any opportunities that the Lions gift-wrap for them. Keeping things mistake-free will go a long way.

We’ve got ample proof this season that nothing is guaranteed, but if the Lions can lock down the left side of the defense, make hay in transition moments, and limit unforced errors, then they should be in a good position to take all three points from Saturday’s game. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 9/4/26

Martin Ojeda details his recovery from injury, Anna Moorhouse loaned to Manchester City, Orlando City’s U.S. Open Cup journey, and more.

Published

2 days ago

on

September 4, 2026

By

Image of Martin Ojeda celebrating a goal against New England.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Three straight days of Orlando soccer starts tonight with Orlando City B’s road match against Inter Miami II at 7 p.m. Hopefully, Orlando’s teams do well over the next few days as crunch time is upon us when it comes to making the playoffs, especially for MLS NEXT Pro. For now though, let’s jump right into today’s links from around the soccer world!

Orlando City Prepares for San Diego FC

Orlando City will take on San Diego FC on Saturday in the first-ever game between the two clubs, and one of the storylines to keep an eye on is how much Martin Ojeda plays as he works his way back from injury. The Designated Player came off the bench late in Orlando’s 3-3 draw against Minnesota United in his first appearance since May 23. Not often injured, Ojeda spoke on how being off the field for over a month has shifted his perspective while training to return.

“You learn to value the moment much more. You learn to value every training session because, when you’re training on your own and you’re not available to your teammates, you feel uncomfortable,” Ojeda said. “You value being healthy more. It’s like everything in life. When you feel good, you live life almost on autopilot, so to speak. You go to work, you go home, you come back, you sleep. However, when you or someone close to you goes through an illness or something like that, you value the moment much more and become more conscious of what you’re experiencing.”

Pride Loan Anna Moorhouse to Manchester City

The Orlando Pride loaned goalkeeper Anna Moorhouse to Manchester City through January of 2027. Moorhouse joined the Pride prior to the 2022 season and helped the club win both the NWSL Championship and Shield in 2024. However, she has struggled this year alongside the rest of the Pride’s defense. Moorhouse hasn’t played in the past two games for the Pride, with Cosette Morche starting in her place. Her current contract with the Pride lasts through the 2027 NWSL season, so we’ll have to wait and see what her future with the club is when the loan ends.

Orlando City’s U.S. Open Cup Journey

Between the World Cup, regular season, and Leagues Cup this summer, it can be easy to forget that Orlando City is still in contention to win this year’s U.S. Open Cup. The Lions are in the semifinals of the tournament after crushing Atlanta United 4-1 in the quarterfinals back on May 19. The Lions won much tighter affairs prior to that win, with Javier Otero coming up with seven saves in a 1-0 win over FC Naples and Zakaria Taifi scoring in stoppage time to beat the New England Revolution 4-3 in the following match. Orlando will be on the road for its semifinal match against the Columbus Crew on Sept. 16, but the offense has received a boost due to the arrivals of Antoine Griezmann and Daryl Dike this summer.

MLS Transfer News Roundup

MLS signings continue to pour in as teams look to improve their squads for the rest of this season and beyond. The Colorado Rapids signed Ghanaian winger Ibrahim Sadiq from AZ Alkmaar, where he recorded 18 goals and seven assists in 85 appearances across three seasons with the Dutch club. San Diego also added an attacker by signing forward Cedric Bakambu, who joins as a free agent after playing at Real Betis. As for other notable moves from across the league, Real Salt Lake signed winger Dusan Zagar as an MLS U22 Initiative player, forward Lyle Foster joined the Houston Dynamo on loan, and the Columbus Crew continued to improve on offense by signing Moroccan winger Anass Zaroury on loan from Panathinaikos.

Free Kicks

  • Former Orlando Pride player Christina Burkenroad is retiring from professional soccer and Monterrey will have Saturday’s game against Toluca be a send-off match for her.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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