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Orlando City’s Hot and Cold Streaks Tell the Story of the 2024 Season

An evaluation of scoring trends this season, with a focus on Orlando City’s recent hot and cold streaks.

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5 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

There is a story — maybe real, maybe apocryphal — of a college statistics professor who asked his students to go home and flip a coin 100 times, and then then to write down on each flip whether it was heads (H) or tails (T). He would then walk around the classroom during the next class and would correctly call out whether a student had actually done the exercise or they had made up the results, just by looking at their Hs and Ts.

His reasoning was that while over the long haul the ratio of heads to tails will be approximately 50:50, in small samples it does not work like that. Those who made up their homework would not put a run of 5,6, 7 or more heads in a row, for example, but those who actually flipped would see the occasional long run.

A similar idea is shown on the recent numbers board above roulette wheels in every casino, where it’s often jarring to see many red or black numbers on display consecutively because the mind is trained to assume that it should be even between the colors since there are 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers on the wheel. I may have played a lot of roulette in my life. We need not go into more detail.

Is there going to be a point to this? Yes. Coins, roulette wheels, rock/paper/scissors, they all generally fall out to similar ratios overall, but in short numbers, they are streaky. Athletes and teams are no different, it happens to them as well.

Baseball is the sport most associated with statistics, and in particular people talk most frequently about a batting average, which is calculated by the number of hits divided by the number of at bats. Three hits out of 10 at bats is a .300 batting average, but hitters who bat around that number rarely get three hits out of every ten at bats if you look at a list of 10 at bat chunks during a season. I could really torture this with examples, but you came here to read about soccer. My point is that players and teams run hot and cold far more often than data would indicate when you are looking at aggregated stats, and Orlando City is no exception.

Thus far this season, Orlando City has had two streaks of three losses and one draw in four matches, and also one streak of four straight wins in four matches. Ramiro Enrique scored a goal in six straight matches, and Pedro Gallese and the defense went a little more than 2.5 straight games without giving up a goal. The offense scored five goals in five MLS games during March and then 14 goals in five MLS games during July. It is not quite to the level of Will Ferrell in Old School, but there has definitely been some streaking going on during the 2024 Orlando City season.

Enrique’s streak was particularly hard to fathom, because according to fbref.com’s tracking prior to the initial goal against D.C. United that started his streak, his career average in games for Banfield of Argentina and Orlando City had been 0.24 goals per 90 minutes, and then all of a sudden he accelerated to 1.34 goals per 90 minutes during his six-match run. Subsequent to that, he has now gone consecutive games without a goal, which feels like a major letdown, when in fact, if you look across his career, it is actually not that surprising. Including his recent run of form, Enrique is now right around 0.33 goals per 90 minutes for his career, or about one goal per every three games…exactly what he has produced in his last three matches.

Was the streak a new normal? Probably not. Were the last two scoreless games a new normal? Probably not, but such is the nature of a streak. On the whole, it washes out in the numbers, but in the moment it felt amazing as a fan in July and felt particularly vexing as a fan more recently. How dare Enrique not continue to score like Messi in his prime for more than six matches!

On a broader scale, as I mentioned earlier, Orlando City as a team was scorching hot in July, scoring 14 goals in five MLS matches and 18 goals in all competitions (six matches), for a nice tidy three-goals-per-game average during the full month. This has been followed by a freezing cold (thus far) August, and looking at the data around the Lions’ performance provides a great view of the statistical concept of regression to the mean.

The averages through the first 24 matches (Concacaf Champions Cup and MLS) of the season are in the first row below. Then there was a big improvement during July (MLS and Leagues Cup), the second row. Finally, August (MLS and Leagues Cup), the third row, has been well below the initial averages, meaning that the full season averages in the fourth row are basically the same as they were in the first row, despite an outstanding July and a thus far not-so-outstanding August. (Note: own goals are not included in the data):

There are always many factors than can lead to success or struggle on the field, but over the long haul of a season, all teams have highs and lows, and the target is really to minimize the lows and to build toward having the highs towards the end of the season, when the playoffs start. This was certainly the case for the 2023 Orlando City team, which went 11-2-2 during its final 15 matches of the MLS regular season after going 7-7-5 during the first 19 matches.

With eight matches remaining in the season, the 2024 version of Orlando City could still come close to that 2023 team’s season-ending run of form, as even with the loss last week the Lions are still 4-1-2 in their last seven matches and one of only three Eastern Conference teams with 10 or more points in their last five matches. Losing at Sporting Kansas City hurt, as that was a winnable game against a bottom-of-the-table team, but the Lions can get back on the right foot (yes, even you, Facundo Torres, can get on the right foot) at home on Saturday against Nashville. When your opponent comes into the match having lost its last seven games in a row in MLS play by a combined score of 18-3, that is a game you need to win, especially when you are playing at home and coming off a frustrating loss.

To do so the Lions will need to blow up the idea that their July form was just a hot streak that will be immediately offset by an August cold streak, netting them out in the middle. The 2023 season is a blueprint follow to avoid regression to the mean and to find sustained success. And with three straight home games coming up, we will quickly see whether the game in Kansas City was an aberration, or another flashing indicator that this season will continue to be one of hot and cold streaks.

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Orlando City

Orlando City Trades Goalkeeper Mason Stajduhar to Real Salt Lake

The Homegrown goalkeeper and longest-tenured Lion is on his way to Utah in exchange for some GAM.

Published

2 hours ago

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January 15, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Well, this wasn’t the transfer news we were looking for out of Orlando City. The club announced today that Homegrown goalkeeper Mason Stajduhar is on his way to Real Salt Lake in exchange for $50,000 in 2025 General Allocation Money (GAM). RSL is also sending Orlando City its natural second-round pick in the 2026 MLS SuperDraft in the deal. If Stajduhar meets certain performance metrics, the deal could bring in up to $150,000 in additional GAM. Stajduhar’s trade to Real Salt Lake ends the longest continuous career in Orlando City’s history.

“Mason has been a part of this club since the early days and, like our club, has grown greatly over those years,” said Orlando City Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi said in a club press release. “We want to thank him for his dedication over these last 10 years and, more importantly, for his trust in us and in the development pathway that we have here in Orlando. We wish him the best moving forward in his career.”

Stajduhar, 27, was signed as the club’s fourth-ever Homegrown Player on Nov. 9, 2015, joining the first team right after the team’s inaugural MLS season out of the U.S. Soccer Development Program. He had previously appeared with the club’s U-16, U-18 and U-23 academy teams over two seasons prior to signing his Homegrown Player contract. He was named to the U-18 USSDA Best XI team by U.S. Soccer for his 2015 season. The club initially declined Stajduhar’s option after the 2019 season but signed a new one-year deal on Nov. 27, 2019, ahead of 2020. The deal included options for additional seasons. He was then loaned to New York City FC as an emergency backup for the 2020 Concacaf Champions League game at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, dressing as the backup to Luis Barraza in a 4-0 loss to Tigres out of Liga MX.

Following the 2021 season, in which he saw his role as the primary backup to Pedro Gallese begin to develop, Stajduhar had his contract option exercised to keep him on the roster through 2022. He then inked a new three-year contract with the club in June of that year designed to keep him in purple and gold through at least 2025, with a club option for 2026. 

Stajduhar did not appear in an MLS match until the 2021 season after loan stints to Louisville City (during which he did not play) and the Tulsa Roughnecks, with whom he made his professional debut on March 29, 2019 in a 2-1 win over the Rio Grande Valley Toros. The delay in his debut was due in large part to his 2017 cancer diagnosis. Stajduhar underwent treatment for Localized Ewing Sarcoma, a form of bone cancer, which put his soccer career on hold through the 2018 season.

His first start and MLS debut came in a 3-2 comeback home win over Atlanta United on July 30, 2021. Stajduhar could hardly be blamed for the Lions falling behind 1-0 just 47 seconds into the game on a cannon shot by Josef Martinez off the right post and in or the Marcelino Moreno Goal of the Week candidate-type shot in the 66th minute. Nani’s 87th-minute goal gave Stajduhar his first win six seasons into his pro career.

The native of Salem, MA, finishes his Orlando City career with 22 starts, 65 saves, nine wins, and three shutouts. He also became the first goalkeeper for the Lions to record an assist, notching a helper with a well-placed long ball to set up Duncan McGuire’s wondergoal on the road against Toronto on Oct. 21, 2023. It was the game-winning goal as the Lions claimed a 2-0 victory at BMO Field.

Stajduhar is coming off a productive season, tying his career highs in appearances (5) and starts (5) in 2024, but a short outing in the last of those five resulted in his second-most minutes in regular-season play (389). He made a career-high 21 saves and went 2-2-1 with a clean sheet and a 1.60 goals-against average. He was playing some of his best soccer as a professional, but his final season in purple came to an end due to a nasty injury he sustained on June 28, 2024 at New York City FC in a 4-2 loss, although the score was secondary to what happened in the 17th minute.

On an obviously offside play, the assistant referee kept his flag down, as is customary in the age of video review. However, because the play was still live, Stajduhar came charging out to try to prevent a breakaway by Malachi Jones. The two players collided heavily as they met at the ball. Both had their season end in that moment, requiring surgery to repair the broken tibias and fibulas of both men. Stajduhar took the loss, although the score was only 1-0 at the time he departed and was replaced by Javier Otero, who made his MLS debut.

For his 2024 season, The Mane Land staff gave Stajduhar a 7 out of 10 rating — his highest end-of-season grade in his time in Orlando.

The goalkeeper leaves after making a total of 22 starts for the Lions (16 in the regular season), making 65 saves, winning nine matches in all competitions, and keeping three clean sheets.

What It Means for Orlando City

Stajduhar’s departure opens the door for fellow Homegrown Player Otero to become the primary backup. Otero, 22, signed as a Homegrown Player on July 10, 2023, after starring in MLS NEXT Pro for OCB. The Venezuelan international, who has been called up by his national team for Saturday’s friendly against the United States, dressed every game for Orlando City following Stajduhar’s season-ending injury, backing up Pedro Gallese.

Unless Orlando brings in a new goalkeeper, Otero will be Gallese’s primary backup in 2025. Depth behind Otero is a bit thin. After last season, the club parted ways with Carlos Mercado, who was the primary starter for Orlando City B in 2024. It seems likely that Orlando City will add a goalkeeper, but whether that player is in front of or behind Otero in the pecking order remains to be seen, and that battle will likely have to take place in training.

The loss of Stajduhar will no doubt be a blow to fans who have become fond of the Homegrown over the years, as he has managed to stick around through multiple coaches. He has provided some great moments for the club — including winning a penalty shootout against Inter Miami with a save against Bryce Duke as part of the club’s 2022 U.S. Open Cup championship run — overcame a deadly disease, grew up from a teenager into a young man before our eyes, and even proposed to his girlfriend (now wife) on the pitch after helping Orlando City beat the Philadelphia 2-1 at home in U.S. Open Cup play on May 10, 2022.

Photo of Mason Stajduhar in uniform, proposing to his girlfriend on the pitch at Exploria Stadium.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

The sentimental attachment aside, the move simply means Orlando City will need a depth goalkeeper — one the club trusts to go out and win a game (or games) when Gallese isn’t available. Whether that’s Otero or someone else remains to be determined.

With Stajduhar’s departure, Kyle Smith takes over as the longest tenured Orlando City player, having joined the club in December of 2018.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/15/25

Javier Otero called up, Sofia Manner moves on, MLS roster and transfer news, and more.

Published

11 hours ago

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January 15, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. It may not feel like it yet, but the new season is just around the corner. The Lions have started preseason training, the Orlando Pride are making roster moves, and you can just about see the possibilities. There’s still a chill in the air, but my heart warms in anticipation. Let’s get to the links.

Otero Called Up

Orlando City SC backup goalkeeper Javier Otero was called up by Venezuela for the upcoming friendly against the USMNT at Chase Stadium in Ft. Lauderdale. The match will take place Saturday, Jan. 18 at 3 p.m. Representing your country is always a privilege, and fortunately for Otero, this call-up won’t necessitate a long trip. We wish Otero good luck and hope for an injury-free trip.

Pride Transfer Goalkeeper Sofia Manner

Sofia Manner’s time in Orlando is done. The goalkeeper is headed to AFC Toronto of Canada’s top flight, the Northern Super League for an undisclosed transfer fee. When Manner was brought in she was expected to compete for the starting role. Given that Anna Moorhouse is not going anywhere, it is not unexpected for Manner to want to go someplace where she can get more playing time. The Pride still have McKinley Crone and Kat Asman behind Moorhouse on the bench.

More on New MLS Roster Rules; Transfer News

Major League Soccer officially announced the roster rule changes for 2025. We highlighted some of those changes in Tuesday’s Lion Links. One other interesting rule makes Off-Roster Homegrown Players eligible to appear in up to six MLS league matches along with unlimited first-team appearances in Cup competitions.

We’re still waiting on some off-season signings from Orlando City, but there’s also still plenty of time. Here are the important dates to know around the MLS transfer window. Other clubs are doing some business. The New England Revolution have signed free agent defender Wyatt Omsberg, and D.C. United acquired midfielder Randall Leal off waivers. San Diego FC is reportedly close to signing USMNT midfielder Luca de la Torre on loan from La Liga side Celta de Vigo.

NASL Antitrust Trial Update

The NASL antitrust case against U.S. Soccer heads to trial this week. MLS is also a co-defendant with U.S. Soccer. The NASL claims that U.S. Soccer and MLS conspired to keep the league from competing in either the Division 1 or Division 2 level of professional soccer. The trial is expected to last a few weeks with as much as $500 million at stake.

Free Kicks

  • The Orlando Pride are taking donations this Thursday and Friday for those in need in the greater Los Angeles area affected by the devastating fires.

That will do it for today, though I also encourage you to listen to the latest episode of SkoPurp Soccer: An Orlando Pride PawedCast. We interviewed soon-to-be-former senior director of communications for both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride, Jackie Maynard. Jackie has been with the club for nine years, and she has made our job here at The Mane Land much easier with her professionalism and generosity. We will miss her as she moves on to her next adventure. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/14/25

Orlando City begins preseason, Orlando Pride sign defender Zara Chavoshi, MLS transfer roundup, and more.

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1 day ago

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January 14, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Tuesday, everyone! It’s been a busy few days for me and sadly I won’t be getting much of a break as my work schedule continues to be packed this week. As is always the case, we have plenty of things to talk through this morning, so let’s jump into today’s links.

Orlando City Opens Preseason

It seems like the 2024 season just came to a close, but Orlando City had its first day of preseason training on Monday. The Lions didn’t quite have everyone in attendance, as Shak Mohammed, Jack Lynn, and Ivan Angulo were not present, while Duncan McGuire and Mason Stajduhar trained off to the side. It was a good first day back though, as the team got its first taste of life without Facundo Torres. One of the big talking points of this preseason will be how the team replaces Facu, with the upcoming preseason games set to evaluate where the team stands.

Orlando Pride Sign Zara Chavoshi

The Orlando Pride announced Monday that the team has signed defender Zara Chavoshi to a one-year contract. The 22-year-old spent the last four years with Wake Forest, where she played both center back and right back for the Demon Deacons. She helped the team advance to the championship of the NCAA College Cup, where the team fell to North Carolina. While she may not play too much during the 2025 season, this is a signing that should provide solid defensive depth while the team evaluates whether or not to award her a longer deal in the future.

MLS Transfer Roundup

Monday saw a slew of MLS teams not named Orlando City making transfer moves, and that means we have a lot to catch up on. We start with confirmation that the San Jose Earthquakes have signed Josef Martinez. Sporting Kansas City decided to continue the trend of signing forwards, as it announced the acquisition of free agent striker Mason Toye, who most recently played for the Portland Timbers. San Diego FC has signed midfielder Onni Valakari on loan from Pafos FC of the Cypriot first division. LAFC has announced the signing of midfielder Odin Thiago Holm on loan from Celtic. Finally, Toronto FC has sold winger Thiago Andrade to Cerezo Osaka of the J1 League.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a ton of American players who will be taking part in games this week, and there are some good matchups to look forward to. Things get going today as Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah and AC Milan face Como in Serie A play, while Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, and Juventus travel to take on a strong Atalanta side. Tomorrow has Chris Richards, Matt Turner, and Crystal Palace taking on Leicester City in the Premier League, while Johnny Cardoso and Real Betis have a tough Copa del Rey test against Barcelona. Luca de la Torre and Celta Vigo will then have a similarly tough task on Thursday when they face Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey. Things wrap up on Friday when Gio Reyna, Cole Campbell, and Borussia Dortmund hit the road to play Nathaniel Brown and Eintracht Frankfurt in Bundesliga play.

Philadelphia Union Hit with Transfer Ban

The Philadelphia Union are currently on FIFA’s transfer ban list (paywall) handed down from FIFA — with the club currently unable to register new players for the next three transfer windows. The issue is reportedly linked to the 2022 signing of Venezuelan striker Jose Riasco. The Union owed $700 to Mineros de Guayana — Riasco’s boyhood club, as part of the sell-on percentage it was owed due to developing him. The Union had a difficult time finding a way to pay the club, and the missing money was reported to FIFA. While the Union have been trying to get the issue cleared up since December, they are not the only team dealing with a ban, so it’s uncertain how long it will take to resolve.

https://twitter.com/JoserNunez91/status/1878820472110084600

Free Kicks

  • Check out some of the views from Orlando City’s first day of preseason training.
https://twitter.com/OrlandoCitySC/status/1878914287907086415
https://twitter.com/OrlandoCitySC/status/1878849573680275609
  • MLS has reportedly instituted a cash-based internal trade system which will start immediately.
https://twitter.com/tombogert/status/1878934350596882898

That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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