Connect with us

Orlando City

Orlando City’s Hot and Cold Streaks Tell the Story of the 2024 Season

An evaluation of scoring trends this season, with a focus on Orlando City’s recent hot and cold streaks.

Published

9 months ago

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

There is a story — maybe real, maybe apocryphal — of a college statistics professor who asked his students to go home and flip a coin 100 times, and then then to write down on each flip whether it was heads (H) or tails (T). He would then walk around the classroom during the next class and would correctly call out whether a student had actually done the exercise or they had made up the results, just by looking at their Hs and Ts.

His reasoning was that while over the long haul the ratio of heads to tails will be approximately 50:50, in small samples it does not work like that. Those who made up their homework would not put a run of 5,6, 7 or more heads in a row, for example, but those who actually flipped would see the occasional long run.

A similar idea is shown on the recent numbers board above roulette wheels in every casino, where it’s often jarring to see many red or black numbers on display consecutively because the mind is trained to assume that it should be even between the colors since there are 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers on the wheel. I may have played a lot of roulette in my life. We need not go into more detail.

Is there going to be a point to this? Yes. Coins, roulette wheels, rock/paper/scissors, they all generally fall out to similar ratios overall, but in short numbers, they are streaky. Athletes and teams are no different, it happens to them as well.

Baseball is the sport most associated with statistics, and in particular people talk most frequently about a batting average, which is calculated by the number of hits divided by the number of at bats. Three hits out of 10 at bats is a .300 batting average, but hitters who bat around that number rarely get three hits out of every ten at bats if you look at a list of 10 at bat chunks during a season. I could really torture this with examples, but you came here to read about soccer. My point is that players and teams run hot and cold far more often than data would indicate when you are looking at aggregated stats, and Orlando City is no exception.

Thus far this season, Orlando City has had two streaks of three losses and one draw in four matches, and also one streak of four straight wins in four matches. Ramiro Enrique scored a goal in six straight matches, and Pedro Gallese and the defense went a little more than 2.5 straight games without giving up a goal. The offense scored five goals in five MLS games during March and then 14 goals in five MLS games during July. It is not quite to the level of Will Ferrell in Old School, but there has definitely been some streaking going on during the 2024 Orlando City season.

Enrique’s streak was particularly hard to fathom, because according to fbref.com’s tracking prior to the initial goal against D.C. United that started his streak, his career average in games for Banfield of Argentina and Orlando City had been 0.24 goals per 90 minutes, and then all of a sudden he accelerated to 1.34 goals per 90 minutes during his six-match run. Subsequent to that, he has now gone consecutive games without a goal, which feels like a major letdown, when in fact, if you look across his career, it is actually not that surprising. Including his recent run of form, Enrique is now right around 0.33 goals per 90 minutes for his career, or about one goal per every three games…exactly what he has produced in his last three matches.

Was the streak a new normal? Probably not. Were the last two scoreless games a new normal? Probably not, but such is the nature of a streak. On the whole, it washes out in the numbers, but in the moment it felt amazing as a fan in July and felt particularly vexing as a fan more recently. How dare Enrique not continue to score like Messi in his prime for more than six matches!

On a broader scale, as I mentioned earlier, Orlando City as a team was scorching hot in July, scoring 14 goals in five MLS matches and 18 goals in all competitions (six matches), for a nice tidy three-goals-per-game average during the full month. This has been followed by a freezing cold (thus far) August, and looking at the data around the Lions’ performance provides a great view of the statistical concept of regression to the mean.

The averages through the first 24 matches (Concacaf Champions Cup and MLS) of the season are in the first row below. Then there was a big improvement during July (MLS and Leagues Cup), the second row. Finally, August (MLS and Leagues Cup), the third row, has been well below the initial averages, meaning that the full season averages in the fourth row are basically the same as they were in the first row, despite an outstanding July and a thus far not-so-outstanding August. (Note: own goals are not included in the data):

There are always many factors than can lead to success or struggle on the field, but over the long haul of a season, all teams have highs and lows, and the target is really to minimize the lows and to build toward having the highs towards the end of the season, when the playoffs start. This was certainly the case for the 2023 Orlando City team, which went 11-2-2 during its final 15 matches of the MLS regular season after going 7-7-5 during the first 19 matches.

With eight matches remaining in the season, the 2024 version of Orlando City could still come close to that 2023 team’s season-ending run of form, as even with the loss last week the Lions are still 4-1-2 in their last seven matches and one of only three Eastern Conference teams with 10 or more points in their last five matches. Losing at Sporting Kansas City hurt, as that was a winnable game against a bottom-of-the-table team, but the Lions can get back on the right foot (yes, even you, Facundo Torres, can get on the right foot) at home on Saturday against Nashville. When your opponent comes into the match having lost its last seven games in a row in MLS play by a combined score of 18-3, that is a game you need to win, especially when you are playing at home and coming off a frustrating loss.

To do so the Lions will need to blow up the idea that their July form was just a hot streak that will be immediately offset by an August cold streak, netting them out in the middle. The 2023 season is a blueprint follow to avoid regression to the mean and to find sustained success. And with three straight home games coming up, we will quickly see whether the game in Kansas City was an aberration, or another flashing indicator that this season will continue to be one of hot and cold streaks.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Portland Timbers: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More

Two teams still smarting from midweek U.S. Open Cup defeats look to get back in the win column.

Published

11 hours ago

on

May 24, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to your preview and match thread for a Saturday night matchup between Orlando City (6-2-6, 24 points) and the Portland Timbers (6-3-5, 23 points) at Inter&Co Stadium. It’s the only scheduled meeting between the cross-conference opponents in 2025 and the first time the teams have met since the 2022 MLS season.

Here’s what you need to know ahead of the match.

History

The Lions are 3-1-2 against the Timbers in the regular season since joining Major League Soccer and 3-2-2 in all competitions. Orlando holds a record of 2-0-0 at home in the series.

The last time the teams met was at Providence Park on March 27, 2022, when they played to a 1-1 draw. Orlando City was ahead on a second-half goal by Junior Urso and up a man after Josecarlos Van Rankin picked up a second yellow card in the final quarter of an hour. However, Andres Perea committed a foul in the penalty area, allowing Cristhian Paredes to equalize from the spot just 10 minutes from the end of full time.

Prior to the 2022 meeting, the teams played for a trophy in the championship match of the MLS is Back Tournament on Aug. 11, 2020. The Timbers were successful on two set pieces in a 2-1 win over the Lions. Center backs Larrys Mabiala and Dario Zuparic got on the end of those set pieces to score, and Mauricio Pereyra put one in the net for Orlando on a wasteful night by the Lions, who put only one of their 14 shots on frame against the Timbers’ low block defensive formation.

The two sides also met on July 18, 2019 at Providence Park, with a largely second-choice Orlando lineup playing to a 1-1 draw against a mainly full-strength Portland side. The Lions were outshot 26-2 but managed the road point anyway, thanks to a Santiago Patino goal that was offset by a late Jeremy Ebobisse equalizer.

The last time the teams met in Orlando’s home stadium saw Orlando City rally with three goals in seven minutes to erase a 2-0 deficit and win, 3-2. Chris Mueller, Sacha Kljestan, and Dom Dwyer scored in the 80th, 82nd, and 87th minutes, respectively, to overcome a hole created by goals from Portland’s Diego Valeri and Bill Tuiloma.

The Lions’ only regular-season loss in the series came at Providence Park in a game they’d rather forget, as they ended up getting two men sent off on the way to a 3-0 loss to Portland in 2018. Goals from Valeri (twice) and Darren Mattocks got Timber Joey’s chainsaw heated up. Jonathan Spector got sent off for two yellow cards and PC saw a straight red.

In 2016, Orlando City thumped the defending MLS champion Timbers, 4-1, with four different Lions scoring — Seb Hines, Kaká, Kevin Molino, and Brek Shea. Joe Bendik stopped a Fanendo Adi penalty kick, but Jack McInerney’s late goal spoiled the shutout.

Orlando won the inaugural MLS meeting in 2015 at Providence Park, 2-0, with Cyle Larin scoring the first of his league rookie record 17 goals, chesting home a wicked cross from Molino. Kaká scored the second goal from the spot to provide the final margin after Carlos Rivas drew the first penalty in Orlando City’s MLS history.

Overview

Orlando City is coming off a frustrating 3-2 home loss to Nashville SC Wednesday in the U.S. Open Cup. Marco Pasalic opened the scoring and Ramiro Enrique equalized after the Lions fell behind on two poor goals by the defense, but a legitimate penalty shout against Nashville for a handball was ignored and the visitors got a late goal from fullback Wyatt Meyer to knock Orlando out of the competition. That snapped the club’s 12-game unbeaten streak in all competitions. However, the Lions still enter tonight on an 11-match unbeaten run in MLS games.

The Lions are 4-1-2 at home in the regular season. However, to improve upon that record, Head Coach Oscar Pareja must ensure his team has more legs under it tonight than it had on Wednesday, when multiple players — notably, Martin Ojeda, David Brekalo, and Cesar Araujo, among others — appeared sluggish after playing heavy minutes in Sunday’s emotional road win at Inter Miami. This is Orlando’s third match in seven days, so running the mostly the same lineup out there against Portland is likely not the best idea.

At the same time, it should be noted that the Timbers are playing their third match in eight days, with the most recent of those — a Tuesday night 1-0 loss after extra time to San Jose in the U.S. Open Cup — on the road. Portland is one extra day removed from both USOC play and MLS play than the Lions, but the Timbers have logged some travel miles, flying to both San Jose and Orlando.

Portland’s most recent league match was a hard-fought 1-1 home draw in the Cascadia Cup rivalry against the Seattle Sounders. The Timbers are 0-1-2 in their last three games in all competitions, but they sit fourth in the Western Conference and have been good on the road, taking points in five of seven away league matches with a 3-2-2 mark away from Providence Park.

Tonight’s visitors have multiple players who can inflict damage in the attack. Four players have at least four goals, led by Felipe Mora’s five, while Antony has scored four times and is tied for the Portland lead in assists, with seven. Kevin Kelsy and Santiago Moreno also have four goals apiece, with David da Costa sitting on two goals to go along with his seven assists.

Orlando must battle fatigue as well as the varied Portland attack. At the same time, the Lions must take their chances better than they did on Wednesday, as the Timbers have conceded more goals (20) than all but four teams in the Western Conference.

“Portland is a team that has been growing in this season. We don’t play in the same conference, but we have seen their growth lately,” Pareja said ahead of the match. “The preparation has been intense for us in such a short period of time. Knowing that they [Portland] have that game model that has been growing lately. We respect them and we’ll be ready.”

The Lions will be without Wilder Cartagena (Achilles), Nico Rodríguez (thigh), and Yutaro Tsukada (knee), while Eduard Atuesta (neck) and Gustavo Caraballo (lower leg) are questionable. The Timbers will be without Diego Chara (lower body), Zac McGraw (back), and James Pantemis (leg), while Jonathan Rodriguez (lower body) is questionable.

Match Content

Official Lineups

Orlando City (4-4-2)

Goalkeeper: Pedro Gallese.

Defenders: David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, Alex Freeman.

Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Cesar Araujo, Eduard Atuesta, Marco Pasalic.

Forwards: Luis Muriel, Duncan McGuire.

Bench: Javier Otero, Rafael Santos, Kyle Smith, Zakaria Taifi, Joran Gerbet, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, Shak Mohammed, Martin Ojeda, Ramiro Enrique.

Portland Timbers (5-4-1)

Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.

Defenders: Omir Fernandez, Jimer Fory, Finn Surman, Dario Zuparic, Juan Mosquera.

Midfielders: Santiago Moreno, Cristhian Paredes, David Ayala, David da Costa.

Forward: Kevin Kelsy.

Bench: Trey Muse, Kamal Miller, Claudio Bravo, Ian Smith, Eric Miller, Joao Ortiz, Ariel Lassiter, Antony, Felipe Mora.

Referees

Ref: Jair Marrufo.
AR1: Eric Weisbrod.
AR2: Kevin Klinger.
4th: Ricardo Montero Araya.
VAR: Kevin Terry Jr.
AVAR: Joshua Patlak.

How to Watch

Match Time: 7:30 p.m.

Venue: Inter&Co Stadium — Orlando.

TV/Live Stream: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV.

Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish).

Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.

Enjoy the game. Go City!

Continue Reading

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Portland Timbers: Three Keys to Victory

If the Lions can check these three boxes, then they should be in a good position to win Saturday night.

Published

1 day ago

on

May 23, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

Coming off a midweek U.S. Open Cup match that I think we’d all rather not talk about too much, Orlando City will try to continue a good run of form in league play tomorrow when it faces the Portland Timbers at home. Both teams will be coming off a short week and need wins to keep pace at the top of crowded Eastern and Western conferences. What follows are three things I believe will go a long way towards helping OCSC pick up the win.

Balance the Lineup

Hindsight is of course 20/20, but playing a mostly first-choice lineup on Wednesday coming off short rest on Sunday after an emotional win hurt Orlando City dearly in the end. Nashville SC looked like the fresher team, and several Lions simply seemed to hit physical walls in the second half, which wasn’t surprising considering the amount of minutes that have piled up on their legs over the course of May. Playing a lineup of all the guys who started on Wednesday would be tantamount to suicide, but Oscar Pareja is going to need to strike the right balance between calling on his best XI and getting some fresh legs in. Alex Freeman, Martin Ojeda, Cesar Araujo, and Joran Gerbet could surely do with some rest, and the health of Eduard Atuesta will surely have a big impact on how the starting lineup looks Saturday night. Either way, Papi is going to need to a good job of walking the tightrope.

Focused for the Full 90

Two of the three goals that Nashville scored on Wednesday were in large part due to the Lions being far too lackadaisical in their defending. Whether it was switching off because they were expecting a whistle that never came, or simply allowing an opposition player to have far too much time and space on the ball, moments where OCSC let its collective focus slip came back to haunt the club in a big way. Like Nashville, Portland is a strong side that’s more than capable of punishing mistakes and lapses of concentration. Tired legs and a possible emotional hangover from the Inter Miami victory likely contributed to Orlando delivering an uncharacteristically unfocused performance, but if the Lions can put those issues in the past, it’ll go a long way towards picking up all three points.

Finish Your Chances

While Orlando has been in (mostly) strong form lately, a recurring theme has begun to emerge of the team not finishing some of the best chances that it creates. Andrew DeSalvo spoke about this at length in an excellent piece, and drew upon OCSC’s 3-0 victory over Miami as a prime example of the Lions leaving goals on the table. Yes, the team has still been getting results, but the margins are so small in the game of soccer that repeatedly spurning chances to score will come back to bite you sooner or later. Plus, there’s plenty of danger going into this game: the Lions will be on short rest, with extra tired legs, against one of the best teams in the west. Any and all high-quality chances that the good guys can carve out need to be finished emphatically, and if they are, then don’t be surprised if OCSC comes out with a win.

There you have it, people. If Orlando comes out with a balanced lineup, maintains razor-sharp focus for the entirety of the game, and is ruthless about finishing off great chances to score, then the Lions should be in a great position to get the win at home. All they need to do is go out and make it happen. Vamos Orlando!

Continue Reading

Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/23/25

Tonight’s OCB match moved to Sunday, Alex Freeman makes USMNT roster, FanDuel Sports Network will stream Orlando Pride games, and more.

Published

2 days ago

on

May 23, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! A long weekend is ahead of us and there is plenty of Orlando soccer to enjoy as well. I’ll be celebrating my nephew’s first birthday this weekend, so it should be a nice next couple of days visiting family. Let’s dive right into today’s links from around the soccer world!

OCB Match Moved to Sunday in Kissimmee

As a heads up, Orlando City B is no longer playing today. OCB’s match against Atlanta United 2 was originally scheduled for tonight in Atlanta, but it was instead postponed to 7 p.m. Sunday and relocated to Osceola Heritage Park rather than Fifth Third Stadium in Georgia. Stadium availability was cited as the reason for the change, and the match will be played behind closed doors, although it will still be streamed live. The Young Lions are coming off of a 3-0 win over Inter Miami II and will face an Atlanta team that has drawn its last four games.

Alex Freeman Makes USMNT Training Camp Roster

Orlando City right back Alex Freeman was named to the United States Men’s National Team’s training camp roster ahead of friendlies next month against Turkey and Switzerland. The 20-year-old is one of five uncapped players on the roster and one of 16 MLS players. He’ll likely be behind Sergino Dest on the depth chart, but Joe Scally was not called up for this window. There are many notable players absent, opening the door for players like Freeman across multiple positions to stake their claim to participate in this summer’s Gold Cup and the World Cup next year.

FanDuel Sports Network Will Stream Select Pride Games

The Orlando Pride will have eight of its remaining games streamed on FanDuel Sports Network, including tonight’s road game against the Utah Royals. The regional network, which used to be called Bally Sports before rebranding, is available on various providers throughout Florida and there is an app for streaming as well. Personally, I find this as just another cog in a messy machine of NWSL coverage options, but I imagine this is handy for those out there who are already accustomed to using the network to watch other Floridian pro sports teams.

Winter Garden Lands USL League One Team

Another pro soccer team is coming to Central Florida, as the United Soccer League announced its intent to bring a USL League One team to the area. Central Florida Pro Soccer’s ownership group has plans for a development in Winter Garden that would include a 5,000-seat multi-purpose soccer stadium. The plans also include recreational fields, a hotel, parks, and a walking trail. The group will gather input from the community in the coming months to help determine the team’s colors, badge, and name.

Free Kicks

  • Kansas City Current defender Alana Cook was placed on the season-ending injury list due to a torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus sustained in the club’s match against the Orlando Pride.
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC and Tigres will square off in the Concacaf W Champions Cup final on Saturday. The winner will earn a spot in the 2026 Women’s Champions Cup and the 2028 Women’s Club World Cup.
  • Luka Modric penned a farewell to Real Madrid fans as his time with the club has come to an end. I don’t know where his next stop will be, but I sure hope it’s not with a team the Lions still have to face this year.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your holiday weekend!

Continue Reading

Trending