Orlando City
Orlando City’s Hot and Cold Streaks Tell the Story of the 2024 Season
An evaluation of scoring trends this season, with a focus on Orlando City’s recent hot and cold streaks.
There is a story — maybe real, maybe apocryphal — of a college statistics professor who asked his students to go home and flip a coin 100 times, and then then to write down on each flip whether it was heads (H) or tails (T). He would then walk around the classroom during the next class and would correctly call out whether a student had actually done the exercise or they had made up the results, just by looking at their Hs and Ts.
His reasoning was that while over the long haul the ratio of heads to tails will be approximately 50:50, in small samples it does not work like that. Those who made up their homework would not put a run of 5,6, 7 or more heads in a row, for example, but those who actually flipped would see the occasional long run.
A similar idea is shown on the recent numbers board above roulette wheels in every casino, where it’s often jarring to see many red or black numbers on display consecutively because the mind is trained to assume that it should be even between the colors since there are 18 red numbers and 18 black numbers on the wheel. I may have played a lot of roulette in my life. We need not go into more detail.
Is there going to be a point to this? Yes. Coins, roulette wheels, rock/paper/scissors, they all generally fall out to similar ratios overall, but in short numbers, they are streaky. Athletes and teams are no different, it happens to them as well.
Baseball is the sport most associated with statistics, and in particular people talk most frequently about a batting average, which is calculated by the number of hits divided by the number of at bats. Three hits out of 10 at bats is a .300 batting average, but hitters who bat around that number rarely get three hits out of every ten at bats if you look at a list of 10 at bat chunks during a season. I could really torture this with examples, but you came here to read about soccer. My point is that players and teams run hot and cold far more often than data would indicate when you are looking at aggregated stats, and Orlando City is no exception.
Thus far this season, Orlando City has had two streaks of three losses and one draw in four matches, and also one streak of four straight wins in four matches. Ramiro Enrique scored a goal in six straight matches, and Pedro Gallese and the defense went a little more than 2.5 straight games without giving up a goal. The offense scored five goals in five MLS games during March and then 14 goals in five MLS games during July. It is not quite to the level of Will Ferrell in Old School, but there has definitely been some streaking going on during the 2024 Orlando City season.
Enrique’s streak was particularly hard to fathom, because according to fbref.com’s tracking prior to the initial goal against D.C. United that started his streak, his career average in games for Banfield of Argentina and Orlando City had been 0.24 goals per 90 minutes, and then all of a sudden he accelerated to 1.34 goals per 90 minutes during his six-match run. Subsequent to that, he has now gone consecutive games without a goal, which feels like a major letdown, when in fact, if you look across his career, it is actually not that surprising. Including his recent run of form, Enrique is now right around 0.33 goals per 90 minutes for his career, or about one goal per every three games…exactly what he has produced in his last three matches.
Was the streak a new normal? Probably not. Were the last two scoreless games a new normal? Probably not, but such is the nature of a streak. On the whole, it washes out in the numbers, but in the moment it felt amazing as a fan in July and felt particularly vexing as a fan more recently. How dare Enrique not continue to score like Messi in his prime for more than six matches!
On a broader scale, as I mentioned earlier, Orlando City as a team was scorching hot in July, scoring 14 goals in five MLS matches and 18 goals in all competitions (six matches), for a nice tidy three-goals-per-game average during the full month. This has been followed by a freezing cold (thus far) August, and looking at the data around the Lions’ performance provides a great view of the statistical concept of regression to the mean.
The averages through the first 24 matches (Concacaf Champions Cup and MLS) of the season are in the first row below. Then there was a big improvement during July (MLS and Leagues Cup), the second row. Finally, August (MLS and Leagues Cup), the third row, has been well below the initial averages, meaning that the full season averages in the fourth row are basically the same as they were in the first row, despite an outstanding July and a thus far not-so-outstanding August. (Note: own goals are not included in the data):

There are always many factors than can lead to success or struggle on the field, but over the long haul of a season, all teams have highs and lows, and the target is really to minimize the lows and to build toward having the highs towards the end of the season, when the playoffs start. This was certainly the case for the 2023 Orlando City team, which went 11-2-2 during its final 15 matches of the MLS regular season after going 7-7-5 during the first 19 matches.
With eight matches remaining in the season, the 2024 version of Orlando City could still come close to that 2023 team’s season-ending run of form, as even with the loss last week the Lions are still 4-1-2 in their last seven matches and one of only three Eastern Conference teams with 10 or more points in their last five matches. Losing at Sporting Kansas City hurt, as that was a winnable game against a bottom-of-the-table team, but the Lions can get back on the right foot (yes, even you, Facundo Torres, can get on the right foot) at home on Saturday against Nashville. When your opponent comes into the match having lost its last seven games in a row in MLS play by a combined score of 18-3, that is a game you need to win, especially when you are playing at home and coming off a frustrating loss.
To do so the Lions will need to blow up the idea that their July form was just a hot streak that will be immediately offset by an August cold streak, netting them out in the middle. The 2023 season is a blueprint follow to avoid regression to the mean and to find sustained success. And with three straight home games coming up, we will quickly see whether the game in Kansas City was an aberration, or another flashing indicator that this season will continue to be one of hot and cold streaks.
Orlando City
Daryl Dike Returns to Orlando City, Signs Deal Through 2027
Daryl Dike is back with the Lions after being out of contract with West Bromwich Albion.
Striker Daryl Dike has returned to the club that gave him his professional start. Orlando City announced today that it has signed Dike as a free agent through the 2027 MLS “sprint season” with an option for 2027-2028. The club also had to send $75,000 in 2027 General Allocation Money (GAM) to the Seattle Sounders in exchange for Dike’s Discovery Priority and could owe the Western Conference side another $75,000 in GAM if Dike meets undisclosed performance metrics.
The signing gives Dike a new start after an injury-plagued career at West Bromwich Albion.
“Daryl is a player our club and our fans know well, and we’re very excited to welcome him back to Orlando,” Orlando City General Manager and Sporting Director Ricardo Moreira said in a club press release. “He brings a powerful combination of strength, speed, and physical presence, and his ability to hold up play, bring teammates into the attack, and finish chances gives us another important option up front. Daryl has already shown what he can do in our league and in this city, and we look forward to helping him make an impact again in purple.”
Dike, who will wear No. 9 for the Lions, returns nearly five years since Orlando City sold him to West Brom on Jan. 3, 2022, for a fee reported by The Athletic to be around $10 million.
The Edmond, OK native was Orlando City’s first-round selection with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 MLS SuperDraft. As a rookie, he started to see minutes on the pitch during the MLS is Back Tournament, making his professional debut against the Montreal Impact in the competition’s round of 16. From there, the striker out of the University of Virginia blossomed, playing in 35 regular-season matches with Orlando, including 30 starts, for a total of 2,547 minutes. He contributed 18 goals and seven assists on 63 shots, getting 27 on target. He passed well (71.1% in 2020 and 72.1% in 2021), providing 14 key passes. Dike drew 71 fouls while committing 40 and was never booked during the regular season in his time in MLS.
He also played in all three of Orlando City’s playoff games during his first stint with the club, starting all three and scoring one goal on five total shots (two on target). He suffered seven fouls and committed four, and picked up one yellow card in the 2020 postseason.
Following his rookie season, Dike went on loan to Barnsley, where he scored nine goals in 22 matches from February to May of 2021.
Dike’s play with the Lions in his first two professional seasons quickly put him on the USMNT radar and before he was sold to West Brom he made eight appearances and scored three goals for the United States at the senior level. He has added two more caps since for a total of 10.
After his sale to West Brom in the EFL Championship, Dike struggled to stay on the pitch, dealing with Achilles injuries that kept him off the pitch for long stretches. Dike managed to score 11 goals in 68 matches when healthy. He scored twice and added an assist in 24 matches in 2025-2026, starting six times, as he was finally able to get a stretch of games in.
“I’m thrilled to be back where it all started,” Dike said in the club’s press release. “Orlando is where I first got the opportunity to play professionally, and returning here feels like coming home. From the moment I arrived the first time, I felt welcomed, and that same feeling has only grown since I’ve come back. Everyone has been incredibly supportive, and I’m grateful to be back in Orlando.”
What It Means for Orlando City
Dike fills a hole vacated by the trade of Duncan McGuire to the Houston Dynamo a week ago. It will be interesting to see where his salary slots in when the MLS Players’ Association reveals its next salary information. McGuire, who had his own injury struggles in recent years, made a base salary of $600,000 and a total guaranteed annual compensation of over $920,000.
The hope will be that Dike can both stay healthy and contribute at a higher level than McGuire was prior to his trade to Houston. The new scenery may do McGuire good and a return to familiar surroundings may similarly help Dike regain his footing. At just 26 years old, Dike is still in his prime years and there are plenty of miles left in Dike’s legs if he can stay on the pitch. Fans will remember how he tossed center backs around like rag dolls during his two previous seasons in Orlando. That kind of physicality will open a lot of room underneath for Antoine Griezmann and Martin Ojeda.
With just a year and a half on the base deal, this is a low-risk and potentially very high-reward signing for the Lions.
Orlando City
Flashback Friday: July 15, 2023 at Atlanta United
Let’s rewind to a tense battle up in Atlanta that took place a little over three years ago.
Well everyone, Major League Soccer is officially back. The league returned from its summer hiatus with three games Thursday night (four were scheduled but air quality from the Canadian wildfires caused Chicago vs. Vancouver to be postponed), and two more games are set to be played later today. Orlando City won’t take the field until Wednesday night against the San Jose Earthquakes though, so that means we have time for one more trip down memory lane. Last week, we went four years into the past and reminisced on a weird 1-0 win over Inter Miami that came courtesy of a Damion Lowe own goal. Today, we go back to mid-July 2023 and a road trip against Atlanta United.
Orlando had been in mostly good form heading into the team’s trip up I-75 to take on the Five Stripes but had hit a sizable bump in the road in the previous match in the form of a 4-0 hammering out west against Real Salt Lake. Oscar Pareja went to his usual 4-2-3-1 in an effort to get back to winning ways, with Pedro Gallese in goal; Rafael Santos, Antonio Carlos, Robin Jansson, and Kyle Smith at the back; Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena at the double pivot; Ivan Angulo, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres in attacking midfield, and Duncan McGuire leading the line.
The Lions seemed determined to put the previous game’s woes behind them and fashioned a chance with not even a minute played. McGuire played a slick pass behind the defense for Pereyra, but a poor first touch let him down and Brad Guzan came off his line well to save from point-blank range. Torres, McGuire, and Araujo then tried shots in the fifth, sixth, and eighth minutes, respectively, but none of them troubled Atlanta’s goalkeeper.
Orlando then took its foot off the gas a bit after trying to come out of the gates and overwhelm the hosts, but some self-inflicted errors gave the Five Stripes some life and eventually led to them opening the scoring. The Lions took a poor throw-in during the 22nd minute which turned the ball over deep in their own defensive third. Miguel Berry drew four OCSC players to him before flicking a ball over the top for Machop Chol. Carlos saved Chol’s deflected shot off the line but Caleb Wiley was first to the loose ball and did well to lift his shot into the net over a recovering Gallese.
Fortunately, the good guys were able to find a quick response. Orlando had a dangerous free kick just three minutes after conceding, and Pereyra curled in a dangerous ball toward the penalty spot. Carlos rose highest and powered a vicious header into the far corner with Guzan left helpless.
Leveling the game gave Orlando a needed injection of belief. McGuire tried his luck at catching Guzan off his line in the 35th minute, and Angulo put a powerful shot just outside the post two minutes later. Smith even had a pop from distance in the 42nd minute, but it went high and that was the last meaningful action of the half.
Atlanta ended the opening 45 minutes with more of the ball (52.1%-47.9%) and more corners (2-0), while OCSC took more shots (7-5) put more shots on target (3-2), and passed more accurately (81.3%-78.2%).
The two teams traded chances after a slow start to the second half, with a deflected ball trickling just wide of the Atlanta net in the 51st minute, before Santiago Sosa put a ball onto the roof of Gallese’s goal four minutes later.
Orlando then went ahead in the 60th minute. Pereyra split Atlanta’s center backs with a great ball for McGuire, who held off Luis Abram’s recovery efforts, and put a low shot past Guzan and into the side netting.
The good guys really should have bagged an insurance goal in the 68th minute, but Ramiro Enrique’s diving header went off the post and out after a great cross from Torres. Pareja then switched to five at the back to try to see out the game, and Atlanta managed to generate some chances. Thiago Almada and Matheus Rossetto had chances in the 88th and 90th minutes, but nothing came of them. The most dangerous moment occurred deep in stoppage time. Atlanta had a dangerous free kick in the 98th minute, and Almada sent a wicked-looking effort on net, but Gallese got over well and put two strong hands on it to parry away.
Atlanta took the resulting corner, but the Lions cleared successfully and the final whistle blew to give the visitors a 2-1 win and all three points.
Atlanta finished with more possession (59.2%-40.8%), corners (7-1), and shot attempts (17-10), but each side put four shots on target. The hosts were also more accurate when it came to passing the ball (84%-76.3%).
Marcus Mitchell was on Player Grades for this one, and he gave Carlos the Man of the Match nod with a grade of 7.5 out of 10. Other high scorers on the evening were Pereyra and McGuire, who each earned grades of 7 out of 10.
Here’s hoping the Lions can pick up some road points in a similar fashion when they return to play next Wednesday. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 7/17/26
Toluca reportedly makes an offer for Martin Ojeda, Orlando City signs Tristan Himes, Orlando Pride add Zoe Matthews, and more.
Happy Friday! While we’re still waiting for Orlando City to return to action, we have Orlando Pride and Orlando City B games to look forward to on Saturday. There’s also the last bit of World Cup soccer for us to enjoy this weekend as well. Between all the soccer and work this week, I’ve managed to read three books to put a dent in my reading goals this year and highly recommend “Main Characters” by Bobby Palmer. It even has a couple of soccer references. Let’s get to the links!
Toluca Reportedly Makes Offer for Martin Ojeda
Liga MX club Toluca has reportedly made a $12 million verbal offer to Orlando City for attacker Martin Ojeda. The 27-year-old has been a powerhouse for the past couple of years for Orlando, recording 16 goals and 15 assists last season and scoring 11 goals in the club’s 15 games so far this season.
In January of this year, he signed a new contract with the club that lasts through the 2028-2029 season, with a club option for 2029-2030. While a $12 million transfer fee is nothing to sneeze at, a higher amount seems appropriate for one of the club’s best players to be transferred in the middle of the season. He’s been a revelation in purple and I’ve been excited to see how he combines with Antoine Griezmann as the Lions hunt for silverware.
Tristan Himes Signed to Homegrown Player Contract
Orlando City has signed Orlando City B goalkeeper Tristan Himes as the club’s 20th Homegrown Player, with a new first-team contract lasting through the shortened 2027 season and including club options for the 2027-2028 and 2028-2029 seasons. After developing through the club’s academy, Himes made his OCB debut in July last year and has made 11 appearances for the team. He also played collegiately at the University of South Carolina and Coastal Carolina University before returning to the club. Hopefully the 22-year-old can continue to improve his game with OCB this year as the Young Lions fight for the top spot in the Eastern Conference of MLS NEXT Pro.
Orlando Pride Add Midfielder Zoe Matthews
The Orlando Pride have signed 19-year-old midfielder Zoe Matthews to a contract through the end of this season. Matthews was the youngest signing in Houston Dash history when she joined the club at 17 in 2024, making her league debut that October. She then had stints in Europe with Dux Logrono in Spain and Benfica in Portugal before returning to the U.S. to become a member of the Pride. Matthews has also represented both the U.S. and Jamaica at the youth levels.
Colin Guske Called Up for Concacaf U-20 Championship
Orlando City midfielder Colin Guske was one of 21 players called up for the United States U-19 National Team roster for the Concacaf U-20 Championship that starts later this month. The 19-year-old was signed as an Orlando City Homegrown Player in late 2024 and has made six appearances for the first team this season, starting twice. He’s been consistently called up for the U.S. U-19 team in preparation for this tournament, which will also serve as qualifying for the 2027 FIFA U-20 World Cup, 2028 Summer Olympics, and 2027 Pan American Games. The U.S. will first take on Haiti on July 25 before playing El Salvador on July 28 and Cuba on July 31.
Free Kicks
- A mural of Antoine Griezmann now graces East Colonial Drive to welcome the French superstar to the city. Artist Steven Teller knocked it out of the park in my opinion, so be sure to check it out.
- Nashville SC added Tunisian winger Elias Saad on loan from Bundesliga club FC Augsburg. Saad played for Tunisia at this summer’s World Cup and could provide some more firepower to a league-leading Nashville side.
- More details on Kai Wagner’s reported return to the Philadelphia Union have emerged, with the Union paying much more to bring him back compared to what they sold him to Birmingham City for and making him a Designated Player to boot.
- Robert Lewandowski’s MLS debut will have to wait, as the Chicago Fire’s match against the Vancouver Whitecaps was rescheduled for Oct. 6 due to poor air quality in Chicago caused by smoke from Canadian wildfires drifting south on the wind.
- American goalkeeper Gabriel Slonina will reportedly be a trialist for Strasbourg for a shot to join the French club either on loan or permanently from Chelsea.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
-
Orlando City2 weeks agoOrlando City vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies: Final Score 6-0 as Lions Run Wild in Friendly on Griezmann’s Debut
-
Orlando Pride1 week agoOrlando Pride vs. Kansas City Current: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Lion Links2 weeks agoLion Links: 7/8/26
-
Lion Links2 weeks agoLion Links: 7/7/26
-
Orlando Pride4 days agoOrlando Pride vs. Boston Legacy FC: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Lion Links5 days agoLion Links: 7/14/26
-
Orlando City1 week agoOrlando City Trades Duncan McGuire to Houston Dynamo
-
Orlando City1 week agoRunning the Numbers: Orlando City’s Fastest, Fittest Players

