Orlando Pride

The Pride’s Offense is Alive but Recently Has Not Thrived

An evaluation of the Pride’s offensive performance in their three games since the NWSL resumed play after the Olympic break.

Published

3 months ago

September 12, 2024

S. Andrew DeSalvo

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

The Pride keep winning, and former New York Jets coach Herm Edwards said it best: “you play to win the game. Hello!” Whether the result looks like free-flowing and beautiful soccer or brute force, rough-and-tumble soccer that looks more like (American) football, in the end all that matters is the scoreboard, and the Pride are still undefeated and in the midst of their second six-game winning streak of the season.

That said, since the Pride came back to NWSL play after the Olympic break, they have not quite looked as dominant offensively as they did pre-Olympics. The defense remains rock solid, with zero goals given up in all three games since the return (note: zero goals in the last three games and only one goal given up in the last seven NWSL games, wow!), but the offense looks slightly off, or as off as a team can be that scores in and wins three straight games. Are these champagne problems, or is there something bubbling up that will need ironing out as the calendar turns to autumn and playoff season nears? I do not want to be the male version of Debbie Downer (Andrew Alarmist? Hopefully there will be no need to workshop this any further.), but I think it is worth exploring.

Let’s take a look at some numbers for the Pride that illustrate how the offensive performance during the most recent three games looks as compared to prior games. In the chart below, taken from data provided on fbref.com and excluding opposition own goals, are the totals for the first 16 games of the season in the first row, the last three of those first 16 games in the second row, and then the most recent three games in the third row.

With the exception of the percentage of shots the Pride put on target, games 17-19 were worse across the board in every other category when compared to the three games immediately prior to the Olympic break and to the first 16 games overall. Worse is a relative term, because if you compare the “worse” performances in those most recent three games to the rest of the NWSL throughout the full season, the Pride’s performance compares favorably in many categories, even though when compared to their own earlier season performances it seems like a downturn.

Compared to every other NWSL team’s full season metrics, the Pride’s last three games are demonstrably better (blue highlighted cells are where the Pride’s output is better) than most other teams in goals, shots on target, and expected goals. The Pride are worse in the conversion stats, goals as a percentage of shots and as a percentage of shots on target, and the number of shots they are expected to take per goal (based on expected goals scored). This is the part in every article where I add my view on expected goals; I think this data is useful in terms of looking at whether the Pride are taking shots from dangerous locations, but I do not actually put a lot of faith into whether a goal really should or should not be “expected” from that location.

If you do the PhD-level mathematics of counting the blue cells as a percentage of the total cells, the Pride are better in 47.4% of the cells above, which ranks them seventh among all teams. This is, of course, not an even comparison, as it is three games for the Pride as compared to every other team’s full 19 games, but the point is that even during a recent “down” period for the Pride’s offense the team is still in the top half of the 14 team NWSL and is performing better than all but three teams in the offensive category that matters most — goals per game. And the Pride are performing better than every team in the league in another somewhat significant measure, the league standings. Take that, Andrew Alarmist.

Alas, we cannot abrogate (SAT word alert) Andrew Alarmist just yet. We still need to take a look at Barbra Banda and what has been going on with her recently, as she has zero goals or assists in each of the last three games. Back in July I wrote an article about the historic pace Banda was on, and it is important to preface a look at the recent “poor performance” by Banda by remembering that with 17 goal contributions (12 goals, 5 assists) she is already tied for the 11th best single season in NWSL history, and with her next goal or assist she will move into a tie for 10th. If we look at the same data for Banda as we did for the full team earlier, we can see that her performance mirrors the Pride’s, which should not be surprising, considering of how much of a focal point she is for their offense.

Clearly the zeroes in the goals categories stand out as compared to the other numbers, but the big takeaway for me was really was around the quality of her shots. This is where I think expected goals really shines, because like a standardized test, it is the same for everyone, and so you can see that the locations of Banda’s shots pre-Olympics (918 minutes over 12 games) were much better than they have been recently (257 minutes over 3 games).

Banda is averaging nearly the same number of shots per 90 minutes as she was pre-Olympics (5.3 shots per 90 mins post-Olympics vs. 5.8 shots per 90 mins pre-Olympics), so the fact that her expected goals per game in the post-Olympics games is half as high indicates that the shots she has taken recently have been from more acute angles and/or farther away from the goal. Correspondingly, her shots on target percentage have dropped, which should not be a surprise based on the expected goals evaluation that the shots she has been taking are from more difficult locations.

On the flipside of the lack of goal contributions by Banda though is, once again, that the team has won all three of its recent games, even with her not scoring. Marta has now scored six goals on the season and Adriana and Summer Yates both have five, making the Pride the only team in the NWSL with four players with at least five goals scored this season. It is always better to have multiple threats, and the Pride are now rolling out four players that force the opposition to game plan against.

To go back to my question earlier, I think that it is indeed a champagne problem for the Pride that since the Olympic break they are winning games by close scores as opposed to walloping their opponents. Bill James, one of the originators of analytics in baseball, felt that run differential was more important than a team’s actual record in terms of determining who the best team in baseball really was, and if we apply this same concept to soccer, we would look at goal differential as the corresponding measure. The Pride are +25 thus far this season, 39% better than the team ranked next behind them and on track for one of the best seasons in league history, if not the best.

To give myself a little bit of credit, I think it was fair to look at the recent games with a discerning eye, but if Julie Doyle was not offside by inches against Gotham, that game is 3-0 instead of 2-0, and Banda also had multiple shots that were cleared off the line against the Red Stars, so that game could have been a multiple-goal victory as well.

To go back to the baseball well one more time, sometimes the Moneyball idea that you can evaluate sports by only looking at the numbers can be deceiving. You have to watch the games too. The Pride have clearly been the better team during all three of their recent games and Banda has been a force to be reckoned with as well. They just have been inches away from showing it both on the field and in the box scores.

I expect that a positive regression to the mean is coming for the Pride’s offense, hopefully as soon as Friday night in the Pride’s rematch with the Current!

Orlando Pride

2024 Orlando Pride Season in Review: Viviana Villacorta

Viviana Villacorta returned to the field late in the 2024 season. Let’s see how she performed this year.

Published

1 day ago

December 2, 2024

Sean Rollins

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

The Orlando Pride selected Viviana Villacorta with the ninth overall pick of the 2021 NWSL Draft out of UCLA. The defensive midfielder opted to remain in school for her senior season, but tore her ACL shortly after, which kept her out of action for the 2021 NWSL campaign. She suffered an ankle injury in the 2022 season that required surgery and tore her ACL for the second time late in the 2023 season.

Villacorta didn’t re-enter the team until late in the year in 2024, making some league appearances and a playoff appearance as the season wound down. While she didn’t have a significant impact on the championship run, the fact that she got back onto the field was an accomplishment.

Let’s take a look at how Villacorta did in the few minutes she received in 2024.

Statistical Breakdown

Villacorta was in the team for the first time this season on Sept. 28, coming on as a substitute at home against the Houston Dash. She made three regular-season appearances in 2024, starting one — the last game of the season against Seattle Reign FC. She played 69 minutes in the regular season without a goal or an assist, completing 31 of 35 passes (91.2%). Villacorta attempted one shot but it was not on frame. Defensively, she recorded one tackle and two interceptions, commited three fouls, and was not booked.

She also came on as a substitute in the first playoff game against the Chicago Red Stars, making her professional playoff debut. The midfielder played three minutes in the match without a goal contribution, helping to see out the game. She completed four of her five passes (80%).

Best Game

The 25-year-old’s best game has to be her lone start against Seattle on Nov. 2. She had a season-high 26 touches, completed 95% of her 18 passes, and recorded one of her two interceptions in 45 minutes of action. She also took her only shot of the season in that game, though it was off target. She was replaced by regular starter Angelina at halftime.

2024 Final Grade

The Mane Land staff gave Villacorta a 5.5 for the 2022 and 2023 seasons, but she didn’t play enough minutes (400 across all competitions) this year to get a grade. As a result, she receives an incomplete grade for the 2024 NWSL season.

2025 Outlook

Despite suffering multiple season-ending injuries, the Pride continue to believe in Villacorta, signing her to a new contract on July 16 that runs through the 2025 season with a mutual option for 2026. The defensive midfielder has shown her quality when healthy, but she’s been unable to remain on the field for long periods of time. The Pride have also strengthened that position, adding Angelina and Morgan Gautrat to the roster, as well as Luana, who is attempting to work her way back from cancer treatment. As a result, it will be hard for Villacorta to get significant minutes, even if she is able to remain healthy. With her experience, however, she can be a key depth player at the position.

Previous Season in Review Articles (Date Posted)

Amanda Allen (11/28/24)
McKinley Crone (11/29/24)
Sofia Manner (11/30/24)
Mariana Larroquette (12/1/24)

Orlando Pride

2024 Orlando Pride Season in Review: Mariana Larroquette

The Argentine international’s second season with Orlando did not produce the larger role with the team she may have expected.

Published

2 days ago

December 1, 2024

Michael Citro

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

In the middle of the 2023 season, the Orlando Pride signed forward Mariana Larroquette, adding her to the roster July 6 on a deal through the 2025 season. The Argentine international represented her country in the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, meaning she didn’t join the Pride until after the competition. Although she was a signing made with an eye toward bolstering the offense, Larroquette made only five appearances in her first season in Orlando — all of them off the bench. With a full preseason with the Pride under her belt, many expected to see her play a more significant role in 2024, but ultimately, it didn’t work out that way. The Pride’s signing of Barbra Banda didn’t help matters for Larroquette in terms of playing time.

Let’s take a look at how Larroquette performed in her second season in Orlando.

Statistical Breakdown

Larroquette made her season debut March 22 against Angel City, which was one of just four appearances during the regular season — all off the bench — logging 48 total minutes. She did not contribute a goal or an assist, failing to attempt a shot. The 32-year-old completed just 41.2% of her 17 passes without a key pass. Larroquette won four of her six tackle attempts (66.7%) and two headed duels. She committed one foul and drew three on the opposition and was not booked.

In the Summer Cup, Larroquette made three appearances, starting once — in the team’s 2-2 draw against CF Monterrey, in which Orlando captured the extra point in penalties. Larroquette played 107 minutes but did not contribute a goal or an assist, attempting three shots but putting neither on target. She completed 68% of her 25 passes but did not create a scoring chance from them. Defensively, she won two headed duels and recorded three interceptions, but she did not attempt a tackle. Larroquette committed one foul in the Summer Cup, drew four on the opposition, and was not booked.

She did not appear in the Pride’s playoff run.

Best Game

Larroquette’s best game has to be the one in which she started and played a season-high 65 minutes — the Pride’s 2-2 draw and 5-4 penalty shootout victory over CF Monterrey in the Summer Cup. Although Larroquette was already off the pitch by the time the shootout took place, she still made her biggest impact in this match, as it was the only game of the year in which she attempted any shots. While she didn’t impact the scoresheet on the attacking end, Larroquette recorded three interceptions in the match as she helped out in the press and defending the Mexican side.

2024 Final Grade

With 155 total minutes across all competitions, Larroquette fell short of the required 400 minutes to qualify for a grade from The Mane Land staff. As a result, she’s given an incomplete for the 2024 NWSL season. She played more in 2024 than she did in 2023, but she was also on the roster all year.

2024 Outlook

Larroquette’s contract runs through the 2025 NWSL season, but the writing may be on the wall after getting few minutes the last two seasons. She’s also on the wrong side of 30 to see much of an increase in that department. This may be an off-season that sees the club part ways with the veteran striker, who may seek a chance to get more minutes elsewhere as she the shelf life on her professional career grows shorter. If she remains on the roster, I would expect her role to remain the same in 2025, giving the club a few minutes here and there later in games and perhaps seeing a larger role in midseason cup competitions.

Previous Season in Review Articles (Date Posted)

Amanda Allen (11/28/24)
McKinley Crone (11/29/24)
Sofia Manner (11/30/24)

Orlando Pride

2024 Orlando Pride Season in Review: Sofia Manner

The Finnish goalkeeper spent her first season in Orlando. Let’s look back to see how she performed.

Published

3 days ago

November 30, 2024

Michael Citro

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

The Orlando Pride signed Finnish goalkeeper Sofia Manner on Dec. 1, 2023 on a deal through the 2025 season with an option for 2026. At the time, Orlando Pride Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter said the club expected Manner to challenge Anna Moorhouse for the starting goalkeeper role. Given that Moorhouse played every minute of the season and McKinley Crone dressed as the primary backup, that didn’t exactly happen.

However, Manner did get some minutes in her first year in Orlando in the Summer Cup, giving Head Coach Seb Hines a look at her under competitive match conditions.

Let’s take a look back at Manner’s first season with the Pride.

Statistical Breakdown

Manner did not play in the regular season, as Moorhouse played every minute of the season (and postseason) for the Pride in goal. However, Manner got the start in Orlando’s second game in the competition, a home match against CF Monterrey on July 28. The contest ended in a 2-2 draw before the Pride won 5-4 in penalties in the ensuing shootout.

Manner played 90 minutes, allowing two goals and making three saves, for a 60% save percentage. She only faced seven non-blocked shots, but five of them were on target. The Helsinki native completed 16 of 21 passes (73%), including four of 10 long balls. Following the draw, Manner made the difference in the shootout, stopping a shot by Merel Van Dongen, who was the only player of the 10 shooters not to convert.

Best Game

Having played in only one match, this is an easy choice. Manner’s debut was her only match of the year, meaning the 2-2 draw vs. CF Monterrey in the Summer Cup was also her best game of the 2024 season. The visitors took the lead twice in the match, but Manner kept her team in the game, allowing the Pride to equalize twice. Once the match moved to penalties, Manner did well to stop a shot from one of Monterrey’s most dangerous players, allowing her team to claim an extra point.

2024 Final Grade

With only 90 minutes to her credit across all competitions in 2024, Manner didn’t play enough to get a grade for the 2024 season, receiving an incomplete from The Mane Land staff. Despite a small sample size, backup goalkeepers don’t always get a chance to play, so it’s good that the coaching staff got a look at the 27-year-old during a competitive match against international competition.

2025 Outlook

With Moorhouse signed through the 2025 season and McKinley Crone also under contract, Manner could remain and try to battle her way up the depth chart. However, if the prospects don’t look good for her to get playing time, there’s a chance that she and the club could mutually agree to part ways. Crone looked good in her limited time, but it’s always nice to have a more experienced option behind Moorhouse as well. Unless there are injuries, I would expect Manner’s minutes to be limited in 2025 as well, unless she can elevate her game and earn more looks.