Orlando Pride

The Pride’s Offense is Alive but Recently Has Not Thrived

An evaluation of the Pride’s offensive performance in their three games since the NWSL resumed play after the Olympic break.

Published

3 months ago

September 12, 2024

S. Andrew DeSalvo

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

The Pride keep winning, and former New York Jets coach Herm Edwards said it best: “you play to win the game. Hello!” Whether the result looks like free-flowing and beautiful soccer or brute force, rough-and-tumble soccer that looks more like (American) football, in the end all that matters is the scoreboard, and the Pride are still undefeated and in the midst of their second six-game winning streak of the season.

That said, since the Pride came back to NWSL play after the Olympic break, they have not quite looked as dominant offensively as they did pre-Olympics. The defense remains rock solid, with zero goals given up in all three games since the return (note: zero goals in the last three games and only one goal given up in the last seven NWSL games, wow!), but the offense looks slightly off, or as off as a team can be that scores in and wins three straight games. Are these champagne problems, or is there something bubbling up that will need ironing out as the calendar turns to autumn and playoff season nears? I do not want to be the male version of Debbie Downer (Andrew Alarmist? Hopefully there will be no need to workshop this any further.), but I think it is worth exploring.

Let’s take a look at some numbers for the Pride that illustrate how the offensive performance during the most recent three games looks as compared to prior games. In the chart below, taken from data provided on fbref.com and excluding opposition own goals, are the totals for the first 16 games of the season in the first row, the last three of those first 16 games in the second row, and then the most recent three games in the third row.

With the exception of the percentage of shots the Pride put on target, games 17-19 were worse across the board in every other category when compared to the three games immediately prior to the Olympic break and to the first 16 games overall. Worse is a relative term, because if you compare the “worse” performances in those most recent three games to the rest of the NWSL throughout the full season, the Pride’s performance compares favorably in many categories, even though when compared to their own earlier season performances it seems like a downturn.

Compared to every other NWSL team’s full season metrics, the Pride’s last three games are demonstrably better (blue highlighted cells are where the Pride’s output is better) than most other teams in goals, shots on target, and expected goals. The Pride are worse in the conversion stats, goals as a percentage of shots and as a percentage of shots on target, and the number of shots they are expected to take per goal (based on expected goals scored). This is the part in every article where I add my view on expected goals; I think this data is useful in terms of looking at whether the Pride are taking shots from dangerous locations, but I do not actually put a lot of faith into whether a goal really should or should not be “expected” from that location.

If you do the PhD-level mathematics of counting the blue cells as a percentage of the total cells, the Pride are better in 47.4% of the cells above, which ranks them seventh among all teams. This is, of course, not an even comparison, as it is three games for the Pride as compared to every other team’s full 19 games, but the point is that even during a recent “down” period for the Pride’s offense the team is still in the top half of the 14 team NWSL and is performing better than all but three teams in the offensive category that matters most — goals per game. And the Pride are performing better than every team in the league in another somewhat significant measure, the league standings. Take that, Andrew Alarmist.

Alas, we cannot abrogate (SAT word alert) Andrew Alarmist just yet. We still need to take a look at Barbra Banda and what has been going on with her recently, as she has zero goals or assists in each of the last three games. Back in July I wrote an article about the historic pace Banda was on, and it is important to preface a look at the recent “poor performance” by Banda by remembering that with 17 goal contributions (12 goals, 5 assists) she is already tied for the 11th best single season in NWSL history, and with her next goal or assist she will move into a tie for 10th. If we look at the same data for Banda as we did for the full team earlier, we can see that her performance mirrors the Pride’s, which should not be surprising, considering of how much of a focal point she is for their offense.

Clearly the zeroes in the goals categories stand out as compared to the other numbers, but the big takeaway for me was really was around the quality of her shots. This is where I think expected goals really shines, because like a standardized test, it is the same for everyone, and so you can see that the locations of Banda’s shots pre-Olympics (918 minutes over 12 games) were much better than they have been recently (257 minutes over 3 games).

Banda is averaging nearly the same number of shots per 90 minutes as she was pre-Olympics (5.3 shots per 90 mins post-Olympics vs. 5.8 shots per 90 mins pre-Olympics), so the fact that her expected goals per game in the post-Olympics games is half as high indicates that the shots she has taken recently have been from more acute angles and/or farther away from the goal. Correspondingly, her shots on target percentage have dropped, which should not be a surprise based on the expected goals evaluation that the shots she has been taking are from more difficult locations.

On the flipside of the lack of goal contributions by Banda though is, once again, that the team has won all three of its recent games, even with her not scoring. Marta has now scored six goals on the season and Adriana and Summer Yates both have five, making the Pride the only team in the NWSL with four players with at least five goals scored this season. It is always better to have multiple threats, and the Pride are now rolling out four players that force the opposition to game plan against.

To go back to my question earlier, I think that it is indeed a champagne problem for the Pride that since the Olympic break they are winning games by close scores as opposed to walloping their opponents. Bill James, one of the originators of analytics in baseball, felt that run differential was more important than a team’s actual record in terms of determining who the best team in baseball really was, and if we apply this same concept to soccer, we would look at goal differential as the corresponding measure. The Pride are +25 thus far this season, 39% better than the team ranked next behind them and on track for one of the best seasons in league history, if not the best.

To give myself a little bit of credit, I think it was fair to look at the recent games with a discerning eye, but if Julie Doyle was not offside by inches against Gotham, that game is 3-0 instead of 2-0, and Banda also had multiple shots that were cleared off the line against the Red Stars, so that game could have been a multiple-goal victory as well.

To go back to the baseball well one more time, sometimes the Moneyball idea that you can evaluate sports by only looking at the numbers can be deceiving. You have to watch the games too. The Pride have clearly been the better team during all three of their recent games and Banda has been a force to be reckoned with as well. They just have been inches away from showing it both on the field and in the box scores.

I expect that a positive regression to the mean is coming for the Pride’s offense, hopefully as soon as Friday night in the Pride’s rematch with the Current!

Orlando Pride

Orlando Pride Sign Goalkeeper Kat Asman

The Pride have signed goalkeeper Kat Asman to a two-year contract through the 2026 NWSL season.

Published

2 hours ago

December 11, 2024

Sean Rollins

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

The Orlando Pride announced this afternoon that the club has signed Kat Asman to a two-year contract through the 2026 season. The Portland Thorns selected Asman in the 2024 NWSL Draft.

“Kat is a phenomenal addition to our goalkeeping corps and is someone we expect to provide competition and push this group to be even better than they have been,” Pride Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter said in a club press release. “We are so excited for what she brings to the group both on and off the pitch and are confident she will play an important role in our upcoming season. Kat is a great fit for our club, and we look forward to providing her the atmosphere and tools to grow her game and make an impact in Orlando.”

Asman was selected by the Thorns with the 39th overall pick in the 2024 NWSL Draft. The Thorns needed a goalkeeper due to starter Bella Bixby’s pregnancy, which would cause her to miss significant time. While the rookie was on the roster, she was behind Shelby Hogan, Mackenzie Arnold, and Lauren Kozal. As a result, she didn’t make any NWSL or NWSL x Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup appearances in 2024.

The Roswell, GA, native was already fourth-choice goalkeeper and Bixby will likely return to her starting position in 2025, leaving the rookie with no place in the squad. The Pride came to her rescue by signing the 24-year-old to a two-year contract.

“I am extremely excited to join the reigning NWSL champions,” Asman said in the club’s release. “A big reason I felt so drawn to joining the Pride is their drive to creating a connected team culture that thrives on building relationships off the field in order to cultivate results on the field. Over the last season, I’ve been able to watch Orlando have an unforgettable season, and I feel very blessed that I get to be a part of everything this team will continue to build in the future.”

Prior to being drafted by the Thorns, Asman spent four years starting for the Penn State Nittany Lions, where she was a teammate of Pride defenders Kerry Abello and Cori Dyke. She played 87 games in State College with 323 saves and 27 clean sheets. Additionally, she became one of four women in Penn State history to win 50 games.

Internationally, Asman has participated in training camps for the USWNT U-14 through U-18 youth teams.

What It Means for Orlando

This signing may not have much of an impact on the Pride in 2025, although the addition may bring into question Sofia Manner’s future with Orlando. Anna Moorhouse started all 26 regular-season games and all three playoff games in 2024, while McKinley Crone was the backup in all of those games. Manner was only on the team sheet for the Summer Cup matches, playing the second game and being an unused sub in the other two.

The Pride will likely have three goalkeepers on the roster for 2025, meaning one of the four currently under contract is likely on their way out. The club signed Crone to a new contract through 2026 on Sept. 6, indicating she’s part of the Pride’s future plans. With Moorhouse under contract next season, it might mean Manner is departing. The Finnish shot-stopper signed a two-year deal on Dec. 1, 2023, with an option for 2026. But with her lack of ability to lock down even the primary backup role this year, we could see a corresponding move in the coming days.

Regardless of who makes way for Asman, it’s likely she’ll be third string. The club seems content with Moorhouse and Crone as the top two goalkeepers and Asman has yet to make a professional appearance. There isn’t much for Carter to do this off-season to beef up the team, but determining who will be the third goalkeeper next season will be something to watch.

Orlando Pride

2024 Orlando Pride Season in Review: Haley McCutcheon

The veteran midfielder spent her third year in purple and contributed to the team’s run to glory.

Published

3 hours ago

December 11, 2024

Michael Citro

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Haley McCutcheon was still known as Haley Hanson when she joined the Orlando Pride on Aug. 18, 2022 in a midseason trade with the Houston Dash. The Pride gave up $75,000 in Allocation Money and a second-round draft selection. She joined Orlando for the stretch run, making her debut with the Pride on Aug. 20 in a 2-1 win over Gotham FC. Following the 2022 season, the Nebraska product signed a new contract through 2024 on Oct. 26 of last year. The Pride extended McCutcheon’s stay in Orlando on Dec. 20, 2023 by inking her to a deal through 2026.

Once again, the versatile veteran contributed in a number of different roles on the pitch, but she saved her best for last, scoring her first goals of the season in the Pride’s playoff run, helping Orlando get past Chicago and Kansas City and into the NWSL Championship against Washington.

Let’s look back at McCutcheon’s third year with the Pride.

Statistical Breakdown

McCutcheon appeared in 22 games during the regular season, starting 18 and logging 1,700 minutes, which was the sixth-most playing time among all outfield players behind three of the team’s defenders (Kerry Abello, Kylie Strom, and Emily Sams), and attackers Marta and Barbra Banda. Of her 18 starts, the first two games of the season saw her at left back, while she was in the midfield for her last 16 starts, although there were a few moments here and there where she moved around as needed when subs were made.

She did not score a goal or provide an assist in the regular season, largely due to a lack of clinical finishing, as she put only two of her 18 shot attempts on frame. She completed 80.4% of her passes, but tallied no key passes and completed just three crosses and 12 long balls on the season. Defensively, however, she shone brightly with 31 tackles and 23 interceptions, winning 69 headed duels. She committed 16 fouls, drew eight, and was booked twice.

In the NWSL playoffs, McCutcheon started in all three games, logging 270 minutes. She scored two goals, finishing the two of her three shots that hit the target, but did not record an assist or a key pass in the postseason. The midfielder connected on 62.8% of her 75 postseason passes. She contributed three tackles and three interceptions on the defensive end. She committed two fouls, did not draw one on the opposition, and was booked once.

McCutcheon made two appearances in the NWSL x Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup (both starts), playing 162 minutes. She did not have a goal contribution or attempt a shot, but she was successful on two of three dribble attempts and completed 84% of her 55 passes, albeit without a completed cross or key pass and only one successful long ball. Defensively, she won four of her five tackle attempts (80%), recorded no interceptions, and won a headed duel. She committed two fouls, drew none on the competition, and was not booked. She attempted one penalty shot but saw her potential winning effort saved against North Carolina.

Best Game

There were a few decent options for McCutcheon’s top match of the year, but the standout for me is the Pride’s 3-2 playoff semifinal win over the Kansas City Current on Nov. 17. Ironically, it was one of her poorest passing performances of the season at just a 49% completion rate, but she managed to contribute in important ways on both ends of the pitch.

Her most important contribution came in the 41st minute with Orlando trailing 1-0. Ally Watt took the ball to the end line up the right channel and cut a pass back into the middle of the penalty area. With Adriana and Barbra Banda occupying the defenders, McCutcheon made a smart late run into the box, splitting her two teammates to get into an open area just as the ball arrived. McCutcheon’s first touch was a hard shot close to the goalkeeper, but the movement was too quick for Almuth Schult to recover and keep it out. With her second goal of the postseason, McCutcheon pulled the Pride level and they kicked on to take a 3-1 lead, ultimately winning 3-2 and advancing to the NWSL Championship.

Two games in a row with a goal 🔥#NWSLPlayoffs Haley McCutcheon is next level! pic.twitter.com/Byhvt9fYxe
— National Women’s Soccer League (@NWSL) November 17, 2024

That wasn’t McCutcheon’s only contribution, although it was her only shot attempt of the match. Her 51 touches in the game showed how involved she was, and her two tackles and two interceptions illustrate her importance to the defensive effort as the Pride held off the Current’s desperation rally attempt. She picked up one foul in the game and was booked in the 12th minute of stoppage time after Danielle Chesky awarded Kansas City a penalty, perhaps trying to give Vanessa DiBernardo a little more time to think about it. Aside from her stats and her goal, McCutcheon showed leadership, often pointing out assignments like an extra coach on the field. She was solid throughout Orlando’s postseason run, but this match was probably her biggest contribution to the three-game postseason sweep.

2024 Final Grade

The Mane Land staff gives McCutcheon a composite rating of 6.5 out of 10 for the 2024 season. This is an improvement over the 6 we gave her last year and the 5 out of 10 grade she received in 2022. She was in the lineup nearly every game, missing just four games from Sept. 20 to Oct. 11. She sat out two of those (officially) with a knock and the last of those was an extra day of rest after the Pride had clinched the NWSL Shield. Other than that, she was on the field.

2025 Outlook

I don’t expect McCutcheon’s role to change much next season, although Seb Hines might like to get her more rest in 2025. With Luana’s illness and injuries to Angelina and Morgan Gautrat, McCutcheon ate up minutes in the Orlando midfield in 2024. Fewer injuries to that position group and/or adding depth in th off-season — and potentially the development of Ally Lemos — could help McCutcheon manage her minutes next year. Regardless of how much time she spends on the pitch, she will likely be one of the key, and vocal, veteran leaders pushing the Pride forward as they try to defend their NWSL Shield and NWSL Championship.

Previous Season in Review Articles (Date Posted)

Orlando Pride

Orlando Pride Announce Roster Decisions Following 2024 NWSL Season

There aren’t many surprises in the Pride’s roster status update following the 2024 NWSL season.

Published

1 day ago

December 10, 2024

Sean Rollins

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

The Orlando Pride updated the team’s roster status today following the 2024 NWSL season and announced some off-season decisions. The team is well intact for the 2025 season with 25 players currently under contract and only four players officially departing.

The players under contract for 2025 or beyond include forwards Amanda Allen, Barbra Banda, Simone Charley, Julie Doyle, Mariana Larroquette, Adriana, and Ally Watt; midfielders Kerry Abello, Angelina, Luana, Grace Chanda, Morgan Gautrat, Ally Lemos, Haley McCutcheon, Viviana Villacorta, and Summer Yates; defenders Cori Dyke, Brianna Martinez, Carson Pickett, Emily Sams, Rafaelle, and Kylie Strom; and goalkeepers McKinley Crone, Sofia Manner, and Anna Moorhouse.

The long list of players under contract is largely due to the work done during the season to sign several players to new contracts. Yates, Doyle, Gautrat, Crone, Watt, Villacorta, Dyke, Martinez, and Abello all re-signed midseason before their contracts expired.

Celia, Carrie Lawrence, and Megan Montefusco announced their retirements from professional soccer during the season, effective at the end of the year. Additionally, Evelina Duljan is out of contract and the club has decided not to bring the young attacker back.

Probably the biggest news from the updates is that the club is in discussions for club captain Marta to return for the 2025 season. The Brazilian saw her two-year contract expire, but had a resurgence at 38 years old, resulting in being named an NWSL MVP finalist.

Just as important to re-signing players were the midseason contract extensions of Pride Head Coach Seb Hines and Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter. The pair that led the Pride to the NWSL Shield and NWSL Championship signed new deals earlier this year through the 2026 season with options for 2027.

What It Means for Orlando

There weren’t going to be any major surprises because 25 of the 30 players were already under contract and three had announced their retirements. Duljan’s departure is a little surprising because she’s only 21 years old and was a highly-touted addition prior to the season. However, she only played in 11 games in all competitions and didn’t appear to be a major factor going forward with the young players in the squad.

The other big news is that the club is in discussions about a return for Marta. The captain has been with the Pride for eight seasons and lost a step after suffering a torn ACL two years ago. However, she was excellent this year, scoring 11 goals and leading the team to the double. The question was whether the club would want to re-sign the attacker — who will be 39 in February — or if she would want to ride off into the sunset with the most successful season in Pride history. The Brazilian sports icon has repeatedly said when asked that she would like to play one to two more years. That being the case, the most likely place for her to do that was in Orlando.

Regardless of the Marta decision, the Pride are in great shape moving forward. They have nearly all of their key players returning next season, setting them up for potentially another run at an NWSL Championship. However, Carter has vowed to continue trying to make the squad better, so having a lot of returning faces doesn’t mean there won’t be some activity this off-season.