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The Pride’s Offense is Alive but Recently Has Not Thrived

An evaluation of the Pride’s offensive performance in their three games since the NWSL resumed play after the Olympic break.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

The Pride keep winning, and former New York Jets coach Herm Edwards said it best: “you play to win the game. Hello!” Whether the result looks like free-flowing and beautiful soccer or brute force, rough-and-tumble soccer that looks more like (American) football, in the end all that matters is the scoreboard, and the Pride are still undefeated and in the midst of their second six-game winning streak of the season.

That said, since the Pride came back to NWSL play after the Olympic break, they have not quite looked as dominant offensively as they did pre-Olympics. The defense remains rock solid, with zero goals given up in all three games since the return (note: zero goals in the last three games and only one goal given up in the last seven NWSL games, wow!), but the offense looks slightly off, or as off as a team can be that scores in and wins three straight games. Are these champagne problems, or is there something bubbling up that will need ironing out as the calendar turns to autumn and playoff season nears? I do not want to be the male version of Debbie Downer (Andrew Alarmist? Hopefully there will be no need to workshop this any further.), but I think it is worth exploring.

Let’s take a look at some numbers for the Pride that illustrate how the offensive performance during the most recent three games looks as compared to prior games. In the chart below, taken from data provided on fbref.com and excluding opposition own goals, are the totals for the first 16 games of the season in the first row, the last three of those first 16 games in the second row, and then the most recent three games in the third row.

With the exception of the percentage of shots the Pride put on target, games 17-19 were worse across the board in every other category when compared to the three games immediately prior to the Olympic break and to the first 16 games overall. Worse is a relative term, because if you compare the “worse” performances in those most recent three games to the rest of the NWSL throughout the full season, the Pride’s performance compares favorably in many categories, even though when compared to their own earlier season performances it seems like a downturn.

Compared to every other NWSL team’s full season metrics, the Pride’s last three games are demonstrably better (blue highlighted cells are where the Pride’s output is better) than most other teams in goals, shots on target, and expected goals. The Pride are worse in the conversion stats, goals as a percentage of shots and as a percentage of shots on target, and the number of shots they are expected to take per goal (based on expected goals scored). This is the part in every article where I add my view on expected goals; I think this data is useful in terms of looking at whether the Pride are taking shots from dangerous locations, but I do not actually put a lot of faith into whether a goal really should or should not be “expected” from that location.

If you do the PhD-level mathematics of counting the blue cells as a percentage of the total cells, the Pride are better in 47.4% of the cells above, which ranks them seventh among all teams. This is, of course, not an even comparison, as it is three games for the Pride as compared to every other team’s full 19 games, but the point is that even during a recent “down” period for the Pride’s offense the team is still in the top half of the 14 team NWSL and is performing better than all but three teams in the offensive category that matters most — goals per game. And the Pride are performing better than every team in the league in another somewhat significant measure, the league standings. Take that, Andrew Alarmist.

Alas, we cannot abrogate (SAT word alert) Andrew Alarmist just yet. We still need to take a look at Barbra Banda and what has been going on with her recently, as she has zero goals or assists in each of the last three games. Back in July I wrote an article about the historic pace Banda was on, and it is important to preface a look at the recent “poor performance” by Banda by remembering that with 17 goal contributions (12 goals, 5 assists) she is already tied for the 11th best single season in NWSL history, and with her next goal or assist she will move into a tie for 10th. If we look at the same data for Banda as we did for the full team earlier, we can see that her performance mirrors the Pride’s, which should not be surprising, considering of how much of a focal point she is for their offense.

Clearly the zeroes in the goals categories stand out as compared to the other numbers, but the big takeaway for me was really was around the quality of her shots. This is where I think expected goals really shines, because like a standardized test, it is the same for everyone, and so you can see that the locations of Banda’s shots pre-Olympics (918 minutes over 12 games) were much better than they have been recently (257 minutes over 3 games).

Banda is averaging nearly the same number of shots per 90 minutes as she was pre-Olympics (5.3 shots per 90 mins post-Olympics vs. 5.8 shots per 90 mins pre-Olympics), so the fact that her expected goals per game in the post-Olympics games is half as high indicates that the shots she has taken recently have been from more acute angles and/or farther away from the goal. Correspondingly, her shots on target percentage have dropped, which should not be a surprise based on the expected goals evaluation that the shots she has been taking are from more difficult locations.

On the flipside of the lack of goal contributions by Banda though is, once again, that the team has won all three of its recent games, even with her not scoring. Marta has now scored six goals on the season and Adriana and Summer Yates both have five, making the Pride the only team in the NWSL with four players with at least five goals scored this season. It is always better to have multiple threats, and the Pride are now rolling out four players that force the opposition to game plan against.

To go back to my question earlier, I think that it is indeed a champagne problem for the Pride that since the Olympic break they are winning games by close scores as opposed to walloping their opponents. Bill James, one of the originators of analytics in baseball, felt that run differential was more important than a team’s actual record in terms of determining who the best team in baseball really was, and if we apply this same concept to soccer, we would look at goal differential as the corresponding measure. The Pride are +25 thus far this season, 39% better than the team ranked next behind them and on track for one of the best seasons in league history, if not the best.

To give myself a little bit of credit, I think it was fair to look at the recent games with a discerning eye, but if Julie Doyle was not offside by inches against Gotham, that game is 3-0 instead of 2-0, and Banda also had multiple shots that were cleared off the line against the Red Stars, so that game could have been a multiple-goal victory as well.

To go back to the baseball well one more time, sometimes the Moneyball idea that you can evaluate sports by only looking at the numbers can be deceiving. You have to watch the games too. The Pride have clearly been the better team during all three of their recent games and Banda has been a force to be reckoned with as well. They just have been inches away from showing it both on the field and in the box scores.

I expect that a positive regression to the mean is coming for the Pride’s offense, hopefully as soon as Friday night in the Pride’s rematch with the Current!

Orlando Pride

Seb Hines Has Decisions To Make For Orlando Pride’s Back Line

What will the Pride’s back line look like when everyone is healthy?

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

As the 2025 NWSL season approaches, the Orlando Pride’s roster is taking shape. While the lineup will mostly remain the same, the departure of Adriana and the addition of Prisca Chilufya will impact changes. Additionally, the team has a key previously injured player returning for next season, something that will force Head Coach Seb Hines to make some tough decisions.

One of the most interesting situations impacting the Pride is the back line. Last season, Rafaelle went down with an injury that forced Emily Sams back to her natural center back position, partnering with Kylie Strom. The duo were terrific down the stretch, lifting their team to 14 shutouts, including in the NWSL Championship.

The move forced rookie Cori Dyke to take a more significant role, starting at right back. It was a tough situation for the 24-year-old, but she handled it brilliantly. Dyke was excellent during the final stretch of the season and especially during the playoffs, helping the team win the league title.

When Rafaelle returns from her injury and is fit to play, Hines will have three center backs, all of which have proven to make strong pairings on the back line. So how will the Pride boss handle the situation? Let’s take a look at some of his options.

If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It

While Rafaelle is a Brazilian international and a great center back, Sams and Strom were fantastic together for much of last season. Sams began the year at right back, while Rafaelle and Strom were the center back pairing. When Sams was forced to move to her natural position, Dyke took over as the starting right back.

Dyke had a strong rookie campaign, especially after taking over. Taking her out of the starting lineup with how she performed would be difficult for Hines. It would be surprising to see Rafaelle healthy and on the bench, but the back line of Kerry Abello, Strom, Sams, and Dyke was the best in the league last year and Hines might not want to rock the boat.

Go Back To The Start of 2024

Another option is to go back to how the back line looked at the start of 2024. While Sams was a regular at center back in 2023, Hines moved her to right back to begin last season. In a corresponding move, Strom — who had been the starting left back since 2022 — moved to center back alongside Rafaelle.

With everyone healthy, Hines could give that lineup another chance. After all, Strom was more solid at center back than left back and Sams proved she’s more than capable of playing right back. This is probably the most likely option and would ensure the team’s three best defenders are on the field.

Return to 2023

The Pride acquired Rafaelle on July 3, 2023, while the league was in the middle of the FIFA Women’s World Cup break. When the Brazilian joined the team, she started with Sams at center back and Strom was the starting left back. Strom has much more experience at left back than Sams does at right back, so Hines could send her back to her original position.

However, Strom had her best season as a member of the Pride in 2024 while playing center back. It’s hard to believe that Hines would send his vice captain back to left back after playing her in the middle all of last year. Rafaelle and Sams are the team’s only other experienced center backs, so this option is a possibility, even if it is unlikely.

Take Advantage of Versatility

When it comes to acquiring defenders, one of the primary things Hines and Haley Carter consider is versatility. Almost everyone on the back line can play center back and at least one of the outside back positions. This gives Hines an opportunity that few coaches have with their rosters.

Hines could move the players around, pairing all three center backs at times and moving Strom to the left and Sams to the right occasionally. Even Dyke can play center back, as she did in college. Moving players around would give them breaks during the season, keeping them fresh.

This decision could also backfire. Players get comfortable with their positions, so moving them around constantly could impact their quality. It would be a risky choice and is unlikely, but given the versatility of the players, it is an option for Hines. He could also take advantage of their versatility by playing a back line of three center backs, using Strom, Rafaelle, and Sams, while pushing Kerry Abello and Dyke up to wingback.


The Pride won the NWSL Shield and NWSL Championship in 2024, one of the best seasons for any team in league history. They have most of the team returning, so they’ll be a favorite to repeat in 2025. While most of the lineup will be back, there are still some questions to be answered. One of those is who will start along the back line. We’ll find out soon enough, and it will be interesting to see what Hines decides.

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Orlando Pride Sign Zambian Forward Prisca Chilufya

Pride add to their attack by signing Zambian international Prisca Chilufya from FC Juarez.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The Orlando Pride announced today that the club has signed Zambian forward Prisca Chilufya to a three-year deal that runs through the 2027 season. She’s the third Zambian attacker to join the Pride in the last 10 months.

“We are thrilled to welcome Prisca to the Orlando Pride. Prisca is a dynamic forward who brings exceptional ability, speed, and a proven scoring record to our attack,” Orlando Pride Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter said in a club press release. “Her experience in both international competition with Zambia and her success in Liga MX Feminil demonstrates the kind of top-tier talent we’re committed to bringing to Orlando. She represents both immediate impact and long-term potential, and we believe she will thrive in our environment. Her three-year commitment reflects our shared vision for building something special. We can’t wait for our fans to see her take the pitch in purple.” 

The 25-year-old attacker joins the Pride from FC Juarez in Mexico. Since joining the team in 2023, she’s made 48 appearances and scored 14 goals. She’s scored four goals this year in just over half a season.

“I am honored to be joining Orlando Pride, a club with such a strong vision and commitment to excellence in women’s soccer,” Chilufya said in the club’s release. “I’m excited to bring my experience and skills to the NWSL, which is one of the most competitive leagues in the world. The opportunity to play alongside such talented teammates and learn from the coaching staff here in Orlando is something I’ve dreamed about. I’ve watched as the Pride have been built something special, and I want to contribute to the team’s success both on and off the field.” 

Before moving to Mexico, Chilufya played for Tomris Turan of the Kazakh Women’s Championship, making 14 appearances and scoring 18 goals during the 2022-2023 season. She moved to that club from fellow Kazakh club BIIK Kazygurt — which she helped win the championship in 2021.

On the international level, Chilufya has been a regular for Zambia since making her debut in the 2018 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations and qualifiers for the Tokyo Olympics. She took part in all three of Zambia’s games in the 2024 Paris Olympics, serving as an alternate for the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup. Most recently, she played in the 2024 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations.

What It Means for Orlando

This signing comes on the heels of the Pride transferring Brazilian star Adriana to the Saudi Women’s Premier League. It’s not surprising the club made a move to bring in an attacker and that the player was Zambian.

Chilufya is the third Zambian international the Pride have signed in the last year. It started with the acquisition of striker Barbra Banda, who quickly became a focal point of the Pride’s attack. Then they signed Grace Chanda, whose injury during the Olympics has thus far kept her from making her Pride debut.

The impact Chilufya will make on the team is unknown, but it won’t be easy to break into the lineup. With Adriana gone, Chanda will likely move into the attacking midfield if she’s healthy. Meanwhile, the club re-signed club captain Marta to a new two-year deal, and she’ll obviously play the 10 role. Julie Doyle and Summer Yates both played on the left side in 2024 and are expected to continue sharing responsibility there in 2025. Such competition for a starting spot can only help the club, pushing all of these attackers to develp their game.

Regardless of which players seize a starting spot, the Pride have added depth, something Carter continually tries to do. Head Coach Seb Hines will have plenty of choices in an attacking midfield that can be devastating to NWSL defenses at times. It’s a good move for the Pride after losing a key piece in the attack.

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Orlando Pride Transfer Adriana to Saudi Side Al Qadsiah FC

The club has secured one of the highest transfer fees in NWSL history for the Brazilian attacker after she requested a transfer.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

The Orlando Pride announced today that the club has secured a club-record transfer fee from Al Qadsiah FC of the Saudi Women’s Premier League in exchange for Brazilian international attacking midfielder/forward Adriana. The club announced that the sale was one of the three highest in NWSL history, with Jeff Kassouf of The Equalizer reporting the fee as $500,000.

“We are incredibly grateful for Adriana’s contributions to the club, and while we will miss her presence both on and off the pitch, we are happy to support her in this next chapter of her career,” Orlando Pride Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter said in a club press release. “At the Pride, we believe in empowering our players to pursue opportunities that align with their personal and professional goals. The record transfer fee we received reflects both Adriana’s exceptional talent and our commitment to building mutually beneficial relationships in the global transfer market. These resources will help us continue to attract world-class talent to Orlando as we build for the future. We wish Adriana all the best and she will always be part of the Pride family.” 

The move, which was requested by Adriana, comes shortly after the start of training camp as the Pride prepare to defend their NWSL Shield and NWSL Championship titles.

“I want to thank the Orlando Pride, my teammates, and especially our amazing fans for making Orlando feel like home,” Adriana said in the club’s release. “This club gave me an incredible opportunity to grow as a player and person, and I will always be grateful for my time here. The Pride organization has been very supportive of my desire to take on this new challenge overseas. They worked hard to make this move possible while ensuring it benefited everyone involved. Orlando will always hold a special place in my heart, and I look forward to watching the club continue to grow and succeed.” 

The Pride signed Adriana almost exactly two years ago on Jan. 19, 2023, from Brazilian giants Corinthians. That deal was through the 2025 season, meaning her contract would have been up at the end of this year. As Orlando typically extends players’ deals before they expire, the timing makes some sense, despite it happening during the Pride’s preseason.

In two seasons with Orlando, Adriana was a key player for the Pride with the versatility for Seb Hines to deploy her in multiple ways. She was primarily used as a winger during her time in Orlando, appearing in 46 NWSL regular-season games with 38 starts, logging 3,333 minutes. She scored six goals and added four assists, sharing the team lead in those categories in 2023. Her contributions in 2024 raised her career regular-season totals with the Pride to 12 goals and five assists across two seasons.

Adriana appeared in all three of the Pride’s playoff games during her stay in Orlando, starting two and logging 197 minutes. She did not make a goal contribution, attempting six shots with only one of those hitting the target. She tallied five key passes and one successful long ball in the Pride’s run to the title.

Additionally, the Brazilian made one appearance in the NWSL Challenge Cup, playing just eight minutes off the bench in 2023 without a goal contribution. She was on international duty during four of the Pride’s six matches in that competition. Adriana was away at the Olympics during the NWSL x Liga MX Femenil Summer Cup, so she did not play in that competition.

What It Means for Orlando

Losing a player of Adriana’s caliber does not make a team better, but the club got a big return for an attacking piece that had started splitting time with Summer Yates during Orlando’s final stretch of the season in 2024. The Pride’s younger players are starting to demand more minutes with their performances, and while the team’s depth takes a hit with Adriana’s departure, the club has the resources to find a roster replacement.

Someone will have to replace Adriana’s six goals per year. Yates scored five in her second season in the league, but a jump to 11 in her third year seems unrealistic. However, more minutes for Yates may mitigate some of Adriana’s lost offense. Others who can contribute to replacing those goals include Grace Chanda, Simone Charley, Ally Watt, and Julie Doyle. The first two on that list are talented, but still have yet to play their first game for the Pride. It’s also conceivable that Barbra Banda can score more goals in her second NWSL season.

In Adriana, the Pride also lost one of the team’s better penalty takers. Adriana was two-for-two from the spot in 2024. Someone else will need to step up and take up the secondary penalty-taker role (to Marta) in 2025.

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