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Orlando City

César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena Are Playing Obscenely Well Together for Orlando City

An analysis of the midfield pairing of César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena’s performance during the 2024 season.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart said in 1964 that his definition of obscenity is “I know it when I see it.” Now, obscenity is not a topic we often cover at The Mane Land, except when talking about the Professional Referee Organization, but it is the quote, rather than the topic, that I thought was prescient for the topic I want to cover today. And yes, this story drops when one of its subjects is suspended for the match tonight.

There are not a lot of statistics that can help define how effective a defensive, or holding, midfielder is. Of course there are statistics (passing completion percentage, defensive tackle win percentage, ball recoveries) that you can look at for every player and then isolate them to compare holding midfielder to holding midfielder, but even those statistics do not ever tell the full story, because they are dependent on the style of play of the team just as much as the players themselves.

Orlando City generally plays a 4-2-3-1 formation with two holding midfielders, but some teams play with only one holding midfielder, so how can you compare the statistics evenly? You can, but only to a point, and the style of play of teams requires more or less from a holding midfielder, making it even harder to compare effectiveness. Therefore, to some degree you have to default back to Supreme Court Justice Stewart and use the eye test.

Using the eye test of S. Andrew DeSalvo (alas the S. does not stand for Supreme Court Justice or even just Supreme, though perhaps I should think about a name change), I have been wildly impressed for three years now by the play of César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena. Both players arrived at Orlando City in 2022 — Araújo before the season began and Cartagena in August during the transfer window — and have been mainstays on the field since joining the team.. The table below shows their MLS regular-season stats since 2022, and illustrates how both players have started and played nearly 90% of the games and minutes that they could have played in MLS play:

Fbref.com tracks and codes players’ performances by position, and among MLS players who are classified as pure midfielders (as opposed to a player like Facundo Torres, who they classify as a hybrid midfielder and forward), Araújo ranks sixth and Cartagena 33rd in minutes played during the past two seasons. Those ranks would likely be even better if both players were a little bit better about controlling their tempers and their aggressiveness (Araújo has 18 yellow cards and Cartagena 14 yellow cards and a red card since the beginning of the 2022 season).

As I mentioned earlier, there are not a lot of publicly available statistics that help quantify the play of holding midfielders as compared to one another, but one that is pretty important for every player is plus/minus. A player’s plus/minus is a pretty simple measure. All it does is subtract the goals conceded by a team when a player is on the field from the goals scored by a team when a player is off the field. While it is difficult to blame a striker for a goal conceded by the defense, or conversely reward a defender for a goal scored by a striker, in the macro sense over an entire season, I think it is instructive to look at plus/minus and consider whether the data backs up the aforementioned eye test.

Considering only the players who have played more than 500 minutes in 2024, here is the full plus/minus heatmap (red is good and blue is not as good) for Orlando City thus far this season (includes all competitions and own goals):

Mirror, mirror on the wall, who has been the hottest of them all? Why, that is Araújo and Cartagena, of course, as both players are +15 for the full season across all competitions. They have not always played next to each other in the midfield, as there have been injuries and substitutions, and Cartagena also played center back for more than 600 minutes this season. But in looking at the chart above, and also considering the eye test about who influences the games for the Lions, it is pretty clear that the eye test and the numbers match up here, and it is not just a feeling that Orlando City has an elite paring at holding midfield. It is, in fact, a fact.

I have another dataset that I have been tracking all season that evaluates Orlando City’s performance by offensive grouping, and in looking at all the offensive groupings where Araújo and Cartagena have played side by side in the midfield, the team is +13 across those minutes as you can see from the chart below (excludes own goals):

Translating +13 over 1,511 minutes to a per-90-minute metric, when Araújo and Cartagena play next to one another the team is +0.77 goals per 90 minutes, whereas during all the other minutes the team is -0.21 goals per 90 minutes. This nets out to an increase of 0.98 goals per 90 minutes, meaning that the Orlando City lineups with Araújo and Cartagena in the holding midfield roles are nearly one goal per game better than any lineup without the two of them playing side by side. I’d say that portfolio is strong to quite strong.

An old soccer cliché is that a team wants to have a midfield destroyer in its lineup, and Orlando City has that times two with Araújo and Cartagena when they play side by side. I believe that it is no coincidence that as the team has settled into a consistent lineup and consistent substitution pattern, the Lions have really taken off and have become one of the hottest teams in MLS with eight wins in their last 11 matches.

I know obscenity when I see it, and the Lions are looking obscenely good right now.

Orlando City

Previewing Luis Muriel’s Second Year in Purple

Orlando City needs more production from its Colombian striker in 2025, so what’s the best way to get it?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The 2025 season will be Luis Muriel’s second as an Orlando City player following a 2024 campaign that wasn’t bad but was uneven and marked by potential that ultimately went unfulfilled. With the Colombian striker still occupying a Designated Player slot, there’s a lot of questions about how he’s going to fit into the team.

With him occupying a precious DP slot and commanding the highest salary on the team by a comfortable margin, it’s essential that the Lions get maximum output from him on the field. What’s the best way to do that, though? With the departure of Facundo Torres and Muriel getting a full off-season and preseason under his belt, there are a few different ways to achieve that goal.

Striker

The obvious answer is the reason that he was brought to the City Beautiful in the first place — to play him at striker. Duncan McGuire likely won’t be available until sometime in April, meaning that Muriel will be duking it out in preseason with Ramrio Enrique (and to a lesser extent, Jack Lynn) for the right to start as the tip of Orlando City’s proverbial spear. He got some time there last year in the first few months of the season, but ultimately his production, or lack thereof, opened the door for McGuire, and later Enrique, to supplant him.

The most straightforward way to get him in the team is to get him scoring in the volume that he’s shown himself to be capable of. It wouldn’t require any alterations to the formation or moving players around to areas where they might not be comfortable. Orlando could try to go big for a winger with proven goal-scoring threat to help replace the Facundo Torres-sized hole on the right wing, Ivan Angulo can stay out left, Martin Ojeda retains his place at the 10, and things keep ticking along.

The big question is whether he can find the back of the net consistently enough to justify going this route, particularly when McGuire and Enrique have proven themselves to be capable of providing solid scoring output. However, if he shows better than Enrique and Lynn in preseason, this is probably the most likely route.

Winger

Another solution, and probably the one that would be second easiest, would be to deploy him at the winger spot vacated by the now-departed Torres. This would allow Enrique and McGuire to compete for the no.9 slot, while filling Torres’ place with someone who is capable of creating and producing goals for others at the same, if not higher, level, and it wouldn’t require any formation or positional shifts.

A downside is that the right-footed Muriel wouldn’t be inverting the way that Torres did, which would tweak some of the team’s tactics and patterns of play in the final third. Additionally, it would be gambling on Muriel improving his goal-scoring numbers despite being shifted out wide and presumably not having as many looks at goal.

In this scenario, the Lions likely aren’t going out and adding a third Designated Player, or if they are, it’s probably an attempt to upgrade over Angulo — something which just doesn’t seem super likely to me, given how ever-present he’s been in the lineup since joining the team. I also don’t know if I can see Luiz Muzzi and Co. standing pat with the current state of a roster that couldn’t win it all and then lost its best player.

No. 10

A different route would be to trot him out at the no.10 position, where he often found himself deployed when coming on as a substitute during the second half of the year. The advantages of this solution are that it would allow the Colombian to utilize his considerable passing range and ability on the ball while minimizing his need to contribute large amounts of goals. On the downside, it would require shifting Ojeda out of the central position that he occupied to such great effect during the second half of the 2024 season. While Muriel has played well in this position, I can’t see the decision-makers being willing to gamble on Ojeda regressing if moved out wide again.

Shadow Striker/Roving Playmaker

The final, and most intriguing (and complex) of the options would be to deploy him as a shadow striker/roaming playmaker as part of a front two. Muriel drops into the hole behind the striker and moves around, finding space just behind his fellow forward, popping up wherever the spaces are and making it difficult for teams to zero in on patterns of play.

Again, it would allow him to use his excellent passing and dribbling ability to create scoring chances for McGuire/Enrique, while still getting him some looks at goal. It’s also a position that he’s played at various times throughout his career, including last year, when we saw him partnered with McGuire in either a 4-4-2 or 3-5-2. The two played well together during those games, and showed signs of a flourishing partnership that ultimately wasn’t pursued further as the team got more bodies healthy and Ojeda began to shine as the central player in the three-man attacking midfield.

The biggest problem would be finding a formation that gets Orlando’s best players on the field in their best positions. A 4-4-2 would allow a midfield of Ojeda, Angulo, Wilder Cartagena, and Cesar Araujo, but Ojeda would need to be out wide and we’ve already covered why that’s an issue. A 3-5-2 would also allow for those guys to be on the field, but then Dagur Dan Thorhallsson and Rafael Santos would likely be sacrificed, and Cartagena would move to center back while Nico Lodeiro slotted into the midfield in his place. OCSC is better when Cartagena and Araujo are partnering in the midfield, and I love having Santos’ crossing ability and DDT’s versatility on the field. For me, it would be cutting off your nose to spite your face.

An interesting solution could be trying a 4-2-2-2, with Santos, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel/David Brekalo, and Thorhallson at the back, Araujo and Cartagena as the defensive midfielders, Angulo and Ojeda as the attacking midfielders, and Enrique/McGuire and Muriel up top, with Muriel operating as the shadow striker. To get the necessary width in attack, one of the fullbacks (presumably DDT) could invert into the midfield when in possession, and one of the defensive mids (likely Cartagena) would drift out wide while Ojeda plays centrally, where he operates best. The biggest issues here are that it would necessitate a lot of tactical variation from what the team is accustomed to, requires Thorhallsson to run his guts out, and is susceptible to getting torched on the counterattack. There’s a world where it could work, but I wouldn’t expect to see it.


At the end of the day, everyone’s lives are made easier if having a full off-season and preseason under his belt helps the Colombian DP find his shooting boots and he hits the ground running as the striker in Oscar Pareja’s preferred 4-2-3-1. Orlando adds firepower at right wing, Ojeda stays in the middle, and Muriel does what he was primarily signed to do — score goals. If that doesn’t happen, there are still ways to try to get him involved, but each solution comes with its own unique set of advantages and disadvantages to navigate. Either way, Muriel’s fit during the 2025 season is an intriguing storyline to watch as we build towards the start of the new campaign. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/10/25

Orlando City reportedly nears signing Nicolas Rodriguez, Orlando Pride re-sign Marta, Americans abroad this weekend, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! I’m already pretty much over this cold weather. While it was a nice change of pace, I’ve never been a huge fan of shivering in my car while waiting for the heat to get going. Thankfully, it looks like some warmer weather is coming this weekend before temperatures dip again next week. But enough about the weather, let’s get to today’s links!

Orlando City Linked With Nicolas Rodriguez

According to Fabrizio Romano, Orlando City is close to signing Colombian winger Nicolas Rodriguez from Fortaleza in Colombia’s top flight.

The 20-year-old would bring the club some needed attacking power and Orlando has open U22 Initiative slots to make it happen. The Lions have yet to make much noise this off-season beyond transferring Facundo Torres to Palmeiras, so hopefully signing Rodriguez kicks off the excitement ahead of the 2025 season. Another report has the transfer fee coming in around $2 million, with Fortaleza keeping a 30% sell-on fee if he’s sold in the future.

Marta Re-Signs With the Orlando Pride

The Orlando Pride have re-signed Marta to a new contract that will keep her in the City Beautiful through 2026. Whether or not Marta would return was the biggest question mark surrounding the club after her contract expired following a historic season that included winning both the NWSL Shield and the NWSL Championship. Marta is one of the best attacking midfielders in the league and was a finalist for both the NWSL MVP and NWSL Midfielder of the Year awards last year. Enjoy how Marta revealed the big news through the club’s social media. She definitely had me in the first half.

Keeping Up With the Americans Abroad

Goalkeeper Ethan Horvath had a stellar game in Cardiff City’s 1-0 win over Sheffield United in the FA Cup, making seven saves in the shutout. It was his first start for the club since August and he could get the nod in Cardiff’s next FA Cup match in February. Lindsey Horan had an assist in Lyon’s 2-0 road win over Dijon, while Cameron Carter-Vickers and Auston Trusty started in Celtic’s 2-0 win against Dundee United.

As for upcoming action, Joe Scally will have a chance to impress when Borussia Mönchengladbach hosts Bayern Munich on Saturday. Elsewhere in the Bundesliga, Giovanni Reyna and Borussia Dortmund will take on Bayer Leverkusen today. Serie A should feature the usual suspects on Saturday, with Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, and AC Milan playing Cagliari and Tim Weah, Weston McKennie, and Juventus facing off against Torino. We also might get to see Matt Turner in goal when Crystal Palace plays Stockport County in the FA Cup.

FA Cup Third Round Storylines

There’s plenty of more FA Cup soccer all over England this weekend to check out. While we were robbed from seeing Ashley Young and his son Tyler Young play against each other in Everton’s 2-0 win against Peterborough United, there are still many storylines in the third round. The heavyweight matchup is between Arsenal and Manchester United on Sunday. While it may be too much to say some of the English Premier League’s bigger clubs are on upset alert this weekend, Tottenham’s road game against Tamworth and Liverpool’s match with Accrington Stanley could prove interesting. Manchester City is set to take on a Salford City side owned by several former Manchester United players as well.

Free Kicks


That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Orlando City

Orlando City is Often Late to the Transfer Party

Why you shouldn’t worry that we’re still waiting on Orlando City’s off-season signings.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Here we are yet again. It’s that time of the year when seemingly every MLS club is making moves, signing new players, and going about the business of getting better for the coming season. It’s also the time of the year when supporters of Orlando City are looking around like Vincent Vega in Pulp Fiction, wondering where the signings are for the Lions.

I’m here to tell you not to panic. As frustrating as it is, this is business as usual for Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi and Vice President of Soccer Operations and Technical Director Ricardo Moreira. In case you’ve forgotten, here are some late signings that the club has made over the years.

January Signings

Despite how it feels, Orlando City signs plenty of players in January. Some of those have been earlier than Jan. 9. Nicolas Lodeiro signed with the club on Jan. 4, 2024, Rafael Santos signed on Jan. 5, 2023, and Cesar Araujo signed Jan. 7, 2022. I understand if you think they shouldn’t count since it was before this exact time of the month, but some fans have been freaking out for a week.

Let’s look at those on this day of the month or later. That list includes Martin Ojeda, who became a Lion on this day in 2023. In addition, Pedro Gallese signed Jan. 17, 2020, Ramiro Enrique signed on Jan. 30, 2023, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson signed the very next day. All four of those players were consistent starters in 2024.

February/March Signings

Muzzi and Moreira aren’t afraid to wait to see if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow to sign new players. Just last year, the club signed David Brekalo on Feb. 8 and Luis Muriel on Feb. 15. Muriel really came on late in the season, and Brekalo will certainly be vying to get his starting spot back in 2025.

I’ve saved my most compelling example for last. Orlando City signed Robin Jansson on March 12, 2019. All he’s done is become Orlando City’s captain and all-time appearance leader. His contributions to the club are extensive. Not too bad for a very late signing.


Historically speaking, Orlando City isn’t doing things any slower than usual. That is why I’m saying not to panic…yet. The Lions made it to the Eastern Conference final for the first time in 2024. If they want to win MLS Cup, the club will need to continue to improve the team.

Given the departure of Facundo Torres, at least one major signing needs to happen. Like you, I hope that signing happens sooner than later. Indeed, I’d like to see several signings, as the club wisely uses the money from the Torres deal to bolster the club for the upcoming season.

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