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Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run

An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.

Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:

This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):

This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.

There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):

I had three major takeaways from this data:

  1. Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
  2. Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
  3. The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.

Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.

I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.

Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.

PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.

The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.

Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.

Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.

I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.

Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.

The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.

Orlando City

Orlando City Striker Duncan McGuire Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

It’s the other shoulder this time, but Big Dunc is on the shelf for awhile again after undergoing surgery.

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Orlando City announced today that Duncan McGuire has undergone arthroscopic surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder. The surgery was performed by Orlando City Chief Medical Officer Dr. Craig Mintzer of the Orlando Health Jewett Orthopedic Institute performed the surgery. Mintzer previously repaired the labrum and rotator cuff in McGuire’s right shoulder back in December for an injury he sustained in Orlando City’s playoff match against Charlotte FC Nov. 9 when he was pulled down by Djibril Diani.

The club’s press release said the 24-year-old striker’s return to play is expected “later this year.” The recovery given for his right shoulder surgery in late 2024 was listed as four to five months, but McGuire was able to come back and play much earlier than expected, appearing for the first time in 2025 in Orlando’s March 15 against the New York Red Bulls — at least a month before the earliest initial projection — however, this time there was no mention of damage to the rotator cuff.

Regardless, the Lions will be without the big target striker for a considerable amount of time.

McGuire had appeared in 12 matches during the regular season in 2025, starting three and scoring one goal and adding an assist. His goal came recently, serving as the game winner in Orlando’s 1-0 home victory over the Portland Timbers on May 24. He was recently listed as questionable on the club’s availability report ahead of the team’s most recent match against the Chicago Fire.

Orlando City drafted McGuire in the first round (No. 6 overall) in the 2023 MLS SuperDraft. After a breakout rookie campaign, in which the Omaha, NE native scored 14 goals, he was courted by several teams in Europe, signing with Blackburn Rovers, only to see the transfer rejected by the English Football League due to an administrative error by the EFL Championship club. After returning to Orlando, McGuire signed a new deal on Aug. 22 to remain a Lion. The new contract runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028. McGuire scored 10 goals and added three assists in 2024. For his Orlando City career, McGuire has appeared in 88 games (46 starts) across all competitions, scoring a total of 28 goals to go along with seven assists.

What It Means for Orlando City

McGuire appeared to be just finding his form, so this injury is unfortunate. The club didn’t put a timeline on McGuire’s recovery this time, but shaving a little off his 2024 recovery estimate, it’s likely that he’ll be out until at least some time in September.

Oscar Pareja has been favoring a 4-4-2 with Luis Muriel and Martin Ojeda up top in recent weeks, with Ramiro Enrique — who is also finding his form — typically spelling one of them when needed. Not having McGuire will affect Pareja’s late-game substitution pattern when Orlando is trailing, as he likes to put Enrique and McGuire both on the field when chasing the game. It also takes the team’s best target striker option out of the lineup when dealing with back lines with lots of height.

McGuire brings size and strength and an ability to occupy center backs that others on the roster can’t replicate. There are times when Enrique’s game is better suited to the opponent, but without McGuire there will be no ability to pivot. With Jack Lynn’s off-season retirement, that leaves the striker pickings mighty slim on the Orlando City bench. That might change Ricardo Moreira’s approach to the MLS Secondary Transfer Window.

Losing a scorer of McGuire’s caliber is always difficult, but this season it could be the difference between finishing high in the table and simply getting into the postseason in a strong Eastern Conference field.

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Opinion

Orlando City Must Learn from May’s Mistakes

The Lions can learn some valuable lessons from the three losses they suffered in May.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

Orlando City hadn’t quite achieved juggernaut status as the Major League Soccer season turned from April to May, but a 12-match unbeaten run in the league is nothing to sniff at, despite there being a healthy number of draws interspersed with the victories. Things turned sour as May drew to a close though, as the Lions lost three of their final four matches of the month and entered a two-week break with a whimper rather than a roar.

Losing is never fun, but in this case those three defeats don’t need to be entirely negative experiences, and there are plenty of lessons to be learned from those three bitter losses that will hold Orlando in good stead if it can implement the proper solutions.

More Squad Rotation

One of the biggest factors in Orlando’s rough finish to May was a lack of squad rotation. Oscar Pareja has always been a coach that likes to find his first-choice XI and stick to it almost religiously. He doesn’t normally tweak his lineups or tactics according to whatever opponent is on the slate, and very much values consistency. In periods of fixture congestion, that tendency can be to Orlando’s detriment, and that was very much the case against both Nashville SC and the Chicago Fire.

After beating Inter Miami 3-0 in an emotional rivalry match on May 18, Pareja made just one change for a U.S. Open Cup match against Nashville SC three days later. Ramiro Enrique slotted in for Luis Muriel up top, but every single other starter from the Miami game also got the nod midweek. With Nashville deploying a heavily rotated lineup mostly filled with backups, the gamble was a simple one: hope that OCSC’s A-team can open up a big first-half lead against Nashville’s B-squad before bringing mass changes in the second half to get guys some rest. Hindsight is, of course, 20/20, but the strategy backfired badly as the Lions lost 3-2. Orlando started well with Marco Pasalic’s 17th-minute strike, but the team faded badly afterwards and gave up a couple of very uncharacteristic goals to lose the game. Lapses in concentration and tired defending cost OCSC the game, and that isn’t something we can normally say about this team.

Then, after losing to Atlanta United 3-2 on May 28 due in no small part to Cesar Araujo’s red card, Pareja made two changes for a match against the Chicago Fire on May 31, with Muriel coming in for Enrique, and the other change being a forced one, as Eduard Atuesta replaced the suspended Araujo. Those starters looked noticeably gassed during the resulting 3-1 loss, and the fatigue manifested itself by players missing chances that would normally be converted or in sloppy, mistake-ridden defending.

May was a packed month with a whopping nine matches in 31 days, and most months won’t be that busy. August is set to be the busiest remaining period of the year with six games in 31 days, although that number could rise higher if the Lions make a run in Leagues Cup. The bottom line is that guys are going to need more rest as the season goes on. If the coaching staff doesn’t trust some of the guys currently available as backups, then they need to dip into the transfer market in one way or another and get some players that they do trust, because if the starting XI gets run ragged during busy periods it’s going to cost Orlando, plain and simple.

Cool Heads Usually Prevail

Orlando City has received three red cards on the season, which is tied for the second-most in the league. Unsurprisingly, the Lions are winless in games in which they’ve had a man sent off, with draws against the New York Red Bulls and CF Montreal and a loss to Atlanta United. The results against the Red Bulls and Atlanta were particularly difficult to swallow, as before going down to 10 men, Orlando had looked on track to get three points in each game.

Araujo’s red card against Atlanta was especially frustrating, as he allowed Mateusz Klich to get under his skin, grabbed him by the throat, and reduced his team to 10 men when OCSC was nursing a 2-1 lead on the road. It was completely unnecessary and was also the sort of thing that Orlando had looked to put in the rearview mirror after keeping its collective composure and not picking up any bookings in the 3-0 road win against Miami, while the Herons picked up four and looked noticeably rattled in the process.

It should go without saying, but the Lions can’t afford to get key players sent off. Six extra points could make a big difference in the standings at the end of the year, and that number could rise even higher if OCSC can’t put its disciplinary issues to rest once and for all.

Focus for the Full 90

There were moments in each of Orlando’s three May losses that the team committed bad defensive lapses or mistakes. Whether it was not playing to the whistle on Nashville’s third goal, Atuesta’s bad turnover against Atlanta, or the Lions collectively allowing Chicago to stroll through midfield to score a third goal, there were plenty of examples of bad breakdowns that were largely absent during the team’s unbeaten run. Can some of that be attributed to tired minds and tired legs? Maybe so — it’s a lot harder to play crisp and focused when the minutes have piled up. Regardless, its something that can’t continue to happen going forward. It’s possible that having more rotation in the squad will help that a lot, but it’s also on the players on the field to stay as mentally sharp as they can when they’re out on the pitch.


Clearly, a recurring theme here is that fresh legs and balanced squad rotation are top of my list of things I want to see change. I’m all for riding the hot hands, but tired legs make for tired minds, and tired minds make mistakes and are easier to rile up. Whether reinforcements come from the bench or an outside source, using more bodies will go a long way towards solving some of the issues that we saw in May’s three losses. All we can do now is wait and see what happens once the team returns from its break. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/6/25

Alex Freeman called up for Concacaf Gold Cup, Orlando Pride get ready for the Houston Dash, Orlando City B plays tonight, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Happy Friday! I’ll be spending this weekend celebrating my birthday by beating my friends at mini golf with no mercy but still hope to catch some soccer over the next few days. I’ve also been on a bit of a movie kick and plan on catching Wes Anderson’s new flick at some point soon. But for now, let’s dive into today’s links!

Alex Freeman Called Up For Gold Cup

Orlando City defender Alex Freeman was officially called up by the United States Men’s National Team for the Concacaf Gold Cup this summer. He’s the only Lion who will be at the tournament and is one of seven uncapped USMNT players on the roster. The 20-year-old could receive more playing time than expected, as right back Sergino Dest is not on the roster so that he can recover over the summer. Left back John Tolkin was added to replace Dest, so Freeman has a real shot at making a claim for the position this month. The U.S. will take on Turkey Saturday in the first of two friendlies before its first Gold Cup match against Trinidad & Tobago on June 15.

Orlando Pride Prepares to Host the Houston Dash

With the international break for women’s soccer over, the Orlando Pride return to action Saturday with a home game against the Houston Dash. It should be a great opportunity for the Pride to ease back into the swing of things against a Dash team that’s only scored 10 goals this season. Pride midfielder Ally Lemos spoke on the benefit of being able to rest heading into this match while maintaining a winning mindset from a 3-1 victory on May 23.

Anna Moorhouse Called Up For 2025 Euros

Orlando Pride goalkeeper Anna Moorhouse was named to England’s final roster for the 2025 UEFA European Women’s Championship. She’s one of three goalkeepers on the squad following Mary Earp’s surprise retirement from international soccer, and she will likely compete with fellow uncapped player Khiara Keating for the backup position behind Hannah Hampton. Moorhouse has started in every game for the Pride this season and was an NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year finalist for her record-breaking season last year. England’s Euro run will begin July 5 against France before other group matches against the Netherlands and Wales.

Orlando City B Takes On Huntsville City FC

The Young Lions are riding high after a 2-1 win over Chattanooga FC and will take that momentum into tonight’s road match against Huntsville City FC. Midfielder Noah Levis scored his first career goal in that home win, with Justin Hylton providing the assist in his OCB debut. Orlando’s offense has been hot and cold this season but has a variety of attacking talent that can create chances in different ways. The Young Lions have only won once on the road, but a win tonight would lift them to third in the Eastern Conference.

Free Kicks

  • FIFA Club World Cup action is coming to the City Beautiful this month and Orlando City legend Kaká spoke on how it’s nice for Orlando to host games.
  • San Diego Wave Head Coach Jonas Eidevall was named NWSL Coach of the Month. The Wave were undefeated in May, winning three of their four matches to climb to second in the league standings.
  • The NWSL will allow intraleague loans for all teams, with the players needing to consent to the move in order for it to happen. Denver and Boston’s expansion teams will have access to potentially over $1 million in Allocation Money starting on July 1 to build their rosters before the 2026 season.
  • Atletico Madrid is reportedly close to signing American midfielder Johnny Cardoso from Real Betis.
  • South Korea, Uzbekistan, and Jordan all qualified for the 2026 World Cup, while China was eliminated from contention. Australia beat Japan 1-0 and will qualify so long as it doesn’t lose heavily to Saudi Arabia on June 10.
  • Spain beat France 5-4 in a wild game to reach the UEFA Nations League final against Portugal on Sunday. Lamine Yamal continues to take the world by storm, but a late rally by France nearly completed a comeback.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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