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Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run

An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.

Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:

This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):

This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.

There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):

I had three major takeaways from this data:

  1. Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
  2. Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
  3. The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.

Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.

I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “ÂżPor que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.

Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.

PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian MbappĂ© were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.

The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.

Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.

Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.

I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.

Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.

The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.

Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/13/24

Orlando City’s international call-ups, Orlando Pride playoffs preview, NWSL Awards voting opens, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Orlando City might have to wait a week to continue its playoff journey, but the Orlando Pride do not. The Kansas City Current are coming to town this Sunday for the third meeting between these NWSL heavyweights this year, and I will be there. I hope you will make it to Inter&Co Stadium to show this Pride club how much we appreciate all they have done this season in their final home match of the season. For now, let’s get to the links.

Lions on International Duty

Several Orlando City players received call-ups for this international break, including Facundo Torres for Uruguay. Additionally, the following also got the call: David Brekalo with Slovenia, Pedro Gallese and Wilder Cartagena for Peru, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson for Iceland, and Favian Loyola for Chile’s U-20 squad. All we can hope for is they all stay healthy and in form. Orlando City’s next opponent, Atlanta United, also had several players called up.

The NWSL Playoffs Continue

The Orlando Pride will face the fourth-place Kansas City Current this weekend after decimating the Chicago Red Stars Friday. There’s been a lot of drama between these two clubs, making this an intriguing semifinal match. The other match sees the second-place Washington Spirit take on third-place NJ/NY Gotham FC. While we get to enjoy seeing the Pride continue their NWSL playoff run, many clubs are now watching from home and working on next season’s campaign.

NWSL Award Voting Open

The NWSL has opened the “fans voting round” for its 2024 end-of-season awards. There are several Pride players who were named finalists, including Barbra Banda, Marta, Emily Sams, Kylie Strom, and Anna Moorhouse. Of course, Seb Hines is up for NWSL Coach of the Year in what should be a foregone conclusion. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t get out there and submit your vote here. This is your chance to make a difference for Hines and these Pride players who have given so much this season.

Pepi is Ready

The USMNT will play its first competitive match under Mauricio Pochettino against Jamaica Thursday night in the first leg of a Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal series. The U.S. doesn’t have a ton of options at forward, meaning Ricardo Pepi will likely get the start. The PSV striker said he feels he’s “ready to be the man.” It’s been years since anyone locked down the starting role up top for the USMNT. Let’s hope that Pepi is indeed ready.

Free Kicks

  • In unsurprising news, Charlotte FC’s Kristijan Kahlina was named 2024 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year. Orlando fans are all too familiar with how good Kahlina is in goal. Honestly, Khalina is a very deserving winner.
  • England’s squad will look very different this international window with eight players out due to injury, including Bukayo Saka and Cole Palmer.
  • The UScpMNT match scheduled for today has been postponed due to inclement weather.
  • Coventry City has its eye on Frank Lampard as a possible replacement for Mark Robins as manager.
  • We have unfortunately seen the last of Memphis 901 FC. It is a sad day, as we’re unlikely to see such a cool name with whatever Santa Barbara comes up with.
  • We’re sad to share that FC Cincinnati’s Marco Angulo passed away as a result of injuries sustained in a car accident. Our thoughts are with his family, friends, and teammates.
  • Finally, I leave you with Ally Watt solving a Rubik’s Cube.

That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for the Pride’s playoff match against the Kansas City Current. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/12/24

Examining Orlando City’s playoff path, what to watch in the Concacaf Nations League, Lily Yohannes declares for the U.S., and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City / Jeremy Reper

Happy Tuesday, everyone! The weekend couldn’t have gone much better for Orlando’s soccer teams, as both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride advanced after their respective playoff games, with the Pride dominating Chicago and the Lions getting a late, dramatic equalizer before winning the penalty shootout. The Pride will return to action Sunday against the Kansas City Current, while the Lions have a slightly longer layoff before they take on Atlanta United. As usual, we have plenty to discuss this morning, so let’s get into the links.

Orlando City’s Playoff Path

It was a wild weekend for the MLS playoffs as far as the Eastern Conference was concerned, and a slew of upsets suddenly means that the path to the MLS Cup final in the Eastern Conference goes through Orlando. The Lions are the highest remaining seed in the East, and not only will they host Atlanta Nov. 24, but they would also host the Eastern Conference final, should they come out victorious. Oscar Pareja spoke after the game about not wanting the victory over Charlotte FC to be the end of the playoff journey, and says the team intends to chase the MLS Cup. If Orlando does make it that far, the team wouldn’t be likely to host the match, as it would require Minnesota United to come out of the Western Conference in order for the final to be held in Orlando. Stranger things have happened though.

What to Watch For With the USMNT

It seems like we just had an international break, but here we are again with two more United States Men’s National Team games on the docket. These are two important games, as the USMNT squares off against Jamaica in the Concacaf Nations League quarterfinals. Besides the obvious chance to advance to the semifinals, there are plenty of other storylines to keep an eye on. With Josh Sargent and Folarin Balogun both absent due to injury, can Ricardo Pepi seize an opportunity to lay claim to the starting striker role? What sort of impacts can Brendan Aaronson and Weston McKennie have in the midst of good starts to the season for their clubs? Last, but certainly not least, is Christian Pulisic, who has had a fantastic start to the season and will have many eyes on him in the first competitive matches under Mauricio Pochettino.

Lily Yohannes Chooses the United States

The United States Women’s National Team has landed a great young talent, as Lily Yohannes announced on Monday that she has chosen to represent the U.S. over the Netherlands. While she was born in Virginia, Yohannes has lived abroad since the age of 10, making her eligible to play for either country. However, she stated that with the United States being her country of birth, as well as where her extended family lives, she decided to commit to representing Emma Hayes’ team. Yohannes made her debut for Ajax’s senior side in November of last year, and has seven goals in 40 appearances for the Dutch team.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

As always, the transfer rumor mill continues to turn, which means we have plenty of things to catch up on. We start with Major League Soccer itself, where FC Cincinnati’s Luciano Acosta has said he may have played his final game for the club. He cited frustration with falling short of silverware as a possible reason for wanting to move on, so he may change his mind once the sting has faded more. Moving to Spain, Barcelona is reportedly monitoring Eintracht Frankfurt’s Omar Marmoush as an option to replace the aging Robert Lewandowski. Arsenal and Manchester United are said to be interested in Leroy Sane, and will pursue him hard if contract talks with Bayern Munich don’t progress well.

Free Kicks

  • NWSL Commissioner Jessica Berman had some friendly words for the Orlando Pride.

That does it for me today. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Charlotte FC: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 1-1 draw/4-1 shootout win in Game 3 against Charlotte FC?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The Cardiac Cats were back again as Orlando City conceded its first goal of the postseason in the 81st minute, equalized on a rebound from a saved penalty with almost the last kick of the game, and won on penalties. Before we begin to look forward to the Eastern Conference semifinal against Atlanta United, we’ll look back at how the team played in its 1-1 draw and 4-1 shootout victory against Charlotte FC.

Let’s take a look at the individual performances in this memorable playoff battle.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 7 — The Lions dominated the chances in this game, so there wasn’t a lot for Gallese to do in the 90 minutes. He saved two of the three shots on target, and the goal he conceded took a deflection that sent the goalkeeper the wrong way. Gallese’s moment came in the penalty shootout with everything on the line. He saved the first two penalties to give his team a commanding lead, helping the Lions advance. He also guessed correctly on the third penalty, although he couldn’t quite get to Ashley Westwood’s shot. In addition to his shot stopping, Gallese completed 80% of his 10 passes but neither of his two long balls. He also recorded two clearances. Although he had a quiet game in regulation, he did what was needed in the shootout.

D, Rafael Santos, 6 — Santos had a team-high 86 touches, completed 87.7% of his 57 passes and two of his three long balls, and had two key passes. While he only completed one of his seven crosses, he should have had an assist when Kyle Smith failed to convert right in front of the goal in the 90th minute. Defensively, the left back recorded two tackles, two interceptions, and four clearances, leading the team in all three statistics. He also converted his penalty, sending the Lions through to the conference semifinals.

D, Robin Jansson, 6 — Jansson touched the ball 69 times in this game while completing 92.1% of his 63 passes. He had one key pass, completing five of his 10 long balls, and put his lone shot on target. Defensively, Jansson was less active than usual, recording three clearances and a blocked shot. He got caught on a high bounce on the attack that ultimately led to Charlotte’s only goal, which was his lone mistake of the night.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 6 — Schlegel had 42 touches in the game and completed 87.5% of his 32 passes, including two of his three long balls. Like Jansson, Schlegel took one shot and put it on target. The center back recorded one tackle, two interceptions, and three clearances. He was replaced by David Brekalo in the 89th minute.

D, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, 6 — Touching the ball 49 times in this game, Thorhallsson completed 87.9% of his 33 passes, including two key passes, one of his three crosses, and his lone long ball. He didn’t take any shots in the game and didn’t record any defensive statistics before being replaced by Kyle Smith in the 79th minute.

MF, Wilder Cartagena, 6.5 — Cartagena came into this game with two yellow cards, leaving him one short of a suspension. However, the defensive midfielder did well to stay out of the book while touching the ball 84 times and retaining his grit in the middle of the pitch. He completed 88% of his team-high 75 passes, including four of his six long balls. He recorded two interceptions and a clearance, but his biggest impact was a good ball into the box that contributed to Djibril Diani pulling down Duncan McGuire, resulting in the penalty that set up the equalizer.

MF, Cesar Araujo, 6 — Araujo took 70 touches and was back to his stellar passing, completing 93% of his 57 attempts, including one of his two crosses and six of his seven long balls. He was also credited with a key pass in the game. His two shots were off target, but he added three clearances defensively.

MF, Ivan Angulo, 6 — Angulo’s 37 touches were the fewest of Orlando City’s midfielders. However, he completed 93.3% of his 30 passes, the highest pass completion percentage of his position group. His only shot was off target and he didn’t record any defensive statistics before being replaced by Luis Muriel in the 65th minute.

MF, Martin Ojeda, 6.5 — Ojeda touched the ball 62 times and completed 83.8% of his 37 passes, including four of his five long balls and a team-high four key passes. However, he only completed three of his team-high 14 crosses. One of the midfielder’s two shots was on target and he didn’t have a defensive impact before coming off for Nico Lodeiro in the 79th minute. For much of the first hour of the game, most of Orlando’s offensive chances and most dangerous attacks came via Ojeda’s forays up the left and interplay with Santos.

MF, Facundo Torres, 7 (MotM) — Torres had 68 touches and completed 88% of his 50 passes, including two key passes. He didn’t complete any of his seven crosses but all of his three long balls. While only two of his six shots were on target, he hit the post and crossbar in the first half. More importantly, he converted on the rebound after Kristijan Kahlina saved his penalty for the equalizing goal. He made up for the penalty save by converting his spot kick in the shootout.

F, Ramiro Enrique, 5.5 — Enrique wasn’t very involved in this game, touching the ball 20 times and completing 90.9% of his 11 passes. While he completed his lone cross, none of four shots were on target, including a free running header on a corner kick when he was left completely uncovered. The forward was replaced by Duncan McGuire in the 65th minute.

Substitutes

F, Duncan McGuire (65’), 6 — McGuire came on for Enrique in the 65th minute, but only touched the ball five times. He completed all four of his passes and didn’t take any shots, but had the most impactful play of the night. In the final seconds of the game, he went down after a tug on the back of his jersey by Diani, drawing the penalty that resulted in the equalizing goal. Unfortunately, he injured his shoulder on the play and didn’t take part in the shootout.

F, Luis Muriel (65’), 6.5 — Muriel replaced Angulo in the 65th minute and touched the ball 28 times. He completed 76.5% of his 17 passes, including a key pass, one of his two long balls, and one of his two through balls.  Only one of his three shots were on target, with his free kick effort deflected by the defense, but he converted the first penalty in the shootout, getting the Lions off to a good start. His introduction allowed the Lions to maintain possession and create chances as time wound down.

MF, Nico Lodeiro (79’), 6 — Lodeiro came on for Ojeda in the 79th minute, touching the ball 19 times in his short appearance. He completed 83.3% of his 12 passes, including a key pass and two of his seven crosses.

D, Kyle Smith (79’), 5.5 — Smith came on for Thorhallsson in the 79th minute, touching the ball seven times and completing one of his three passes. Santos found him for a tap-in at the back post in the 90th minute, but the defender completely messed up the golden opportunity stepping over/onto the ball and going to ground. However, he made up for it with the best penalty of the shootout, in my opinion. He didn’t end up with any defensive statistics in the game.

D, David Brekalo (89’), N/A — Brekalo replaced Schlegel in the 89th minute, as Oscar Pareja wanted his aerial presence on the field for the final push. He touched the ball seven times and completed all of his five passes. He didn’t record any defensive statistics in his short appearance.


That’s how I saw the individual performances in Orlando City’s playoff win over Charlotte. Let us know how you saw the game in the comments and don’t forget to vote for your Man of the Match.

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