Orlando City
Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run
An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.
Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.
Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:
This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):
This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.
There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):
I had three major takeaways from this data:
- Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
- Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
- The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.
Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.
I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.
Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.
PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.
The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.
Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.
Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.
I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.
Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.
The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.
Orlando City
Orlando City Forward Jack Lynn Announces His Retirement
Orlando City forward Jack Lynn retires from professional soccer.
Orlando City announced this morning that forward Jack Lynn has retired from professional soccer to explore opportunities outside of the game. The striker was the Lions’ first-round pick in the 2022 MLS SuperDraft.
“Jack is a player who always gave 100 percent for us here in Orlando both in training and every game that he played,” Orlando City Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi said in a club press release. “He is someone who was always a positive to have as a part of the group and was ready to do whatever was asked of him for the team. We want to thank Jack for these last three years of hard work and professionalism and wish him nothing but the best in this next step of his life.”
The 25-year-old was selected with the 18th overall pick out of Notre Dame and the Lions signed him to a one-year deal on Feb. 16, 2022, with club options for 2023, 2024, and 2025. Orlando City exercised its option on Lynn following the 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons, so he was set to enter his final option year in 2025.
Lynn quickly became a regular starter for Orlando City B, playing 53 games with 45 starts and recording 3,950 minutes. He scored a team-record 38 goals and added five assists over three seasons with the second team.
After scoring 15 goals for OCB during his rookie season, Lynn won the Golden Boot with 19 goals in 2023. His play that season earned him the title of MLS NEXT Pro MVP, making him the first OCB player to win the award.
The third-year forward saw his role with the first team increase significantly in 2024. He only made seven total first-team appearances in his first two seasons, but appeared 14 times in 2024 with his only two starts. In his three seasons in Orlando, Lynn played in 22 games with two starts and recorded 326 minutes. He scored twice, with both goals coming in MLS action.
Prior to joining the Lions, Lynn was a standout forward at Notre Dame, playing 79 times with 57 starts while scoring 31 goals and adding eight assists. He scored 10 goals with four assists during his senior year, helping the Fighting Irish win the ACC Championship before losing to eventual champion Clemson in the NCAA College Cup semifinal. He was a three-time All-ACC selection and All-Region selection during his collegiate career.
What This Means for Orlando City
Lynn played sparingly during his professional career but saw his role increase last season. An injury and subsequent surgery for Duncan McGuire meant he was likely to see even more time in 2025 had he continued playing. However, he would’ve been the third or fourth choice on the roster.
The retirement means the Lions will likely be on the lookout for another striker as they attempt to add some depth to the position. Ramiro Enrique will be the starter as the season begins and Luis Muriel can play up top if needed, but there was already a need for depth up top. That need is even more urgent with Lynn’s departure.
Orlando City
Orlando City Signs Colombian Winger Nicolas Rodriguez
The Lions add a skilled young winger ahead of the 2025 season.
Orlando City has announced the previously reported signing of Colombian forward Nicolas Rodriguez from Fortaleza CEIF through 2027 with a club option for 2028. Rodriguez, 20, will occupy an MLS U22 Initiative slot.
“We’re very excited to have Nico join us here in Orlando. With the characteristics he has as a player, he’s someone that we feel really fits our model and culture at the club,” Orlando City Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi in a club press release. “Nico has a skilled left foot that makes him a challenge to defend, likes to take defenders on one-on-one, and has a promising future. We’re excited for all he’ll achieve here during his time in purple.”
Rodriguez made 19 appearances (all starts) in the 2024 Primera A Clausura season with Fortaleza, compiling 1,607 minutes, scoring five goals, and adding three assists.
“It’s an honor and a point of pride to be able to wear this kit, to be able to represent this badge, and it’s very important to me and to my family,” Rodríguez said in the club’s press release. “I’m excited about this next step along my journey.”
The San Jose del Guaviare, Colombia native joined Fortaleza’s youth team in 2021, making his debut in the Categoria Primera B against Boyaca Chico. After rarely appearing in his first two years, the 5-foot-8 winger became a regular starter in 2023, appearing in 44 matches and scoring eight times, helping the club earn promotion to Primera A. He played in 42 games in all competitions for Fortaleza in 2024, scoring eight goals.
What It Means for Orlando City
The Lions get a talented, young offensive-minded player who can help the club while developing. If things go well, Orlando City will be able to move him in the future for a great deal more than what the club is investing in him now, which is good business, but not at the expense of the team on the field. Rodriguez isn’t a like-for-like replacement for Facundo Torres — at least not yet — but he doesn’t have to be. The Lions could play Martin Ojeda or Luis Muriel opposite Ivan Angulo, allowing Rodriguez time to develop with minutes off the bench and spot starts during heavy fixture congestion. And, with an open Designated Player slot, there may still be a forward or winger brought in before the 2025 season starts.
In addition to playing right wing, Rodriguez can also play the right side in a three-man midfield and even the No. 10 spot. In Oscar Pareja’s system, he would likely project as the right attacking midfielder in the 4-2-3-1.
Rodriguez will occupy an international and U22 Initiative slot for the Lions. He’s a player with a lot of upside and with the financial investment of the transfer fee, coupled with the reports that Fortaleza will retain as much as 30% of a future sale, the club must feel good about his future. Fans should as well after seeing the video below, which shows Rodriguez has plenty of confidence and finishing ability, even from outside the box.
Opinion
Likes and Dislikes from the First Week of Orlando City’s Preseason
Here are a few things that stood out from the first week of preseason — some good and some bad.
The 2024 Major League Soccer season has barely had time to breathe, but Orlando City opened preseason training on Monday. If it feels like time has flown by, that’s because it has. Hell, we’ve already got a whole working week’s-worth of practices in, and things are only going to pick up from here. With that being the case, I wanted to stop and reflect on a couple things that I liked, and a couple things that I disliked from the first week of the Lions’ preseason.
Likes
The Boys Are Back in Town
First and foremost, it’s good to be back in soccer mode. Its always nice to reflect on fond memories from the most recent season — particularly when its a successful one like the Lions just had, but reminiscing only takes you so far. But now we’re getting daily looks at OCSC’s preseason work and are able to check in with the familiar faces we know and love while also getting to know a few new ones. Videos like this one are always nice and help build excitement for the games to come.
Games Just Around the Corner
Speaking of games, we aren’t too far from Orlando’s first game of 2025. The Lions will play a preseason match a little over a week from today on Jan. 25, when they take on Atletico Mineiro at home in the FC Series. It may be only a preseason game but it still provides us with our first glimpse of what Orlando City will look like during the 2025 season. We’ll presumably get to see some of the team’s draft picks in action and should get some clues as to how the positional pecking order is starting to shape up.
Dislikes
The Wait for Reinforcements
It isn’t out of the norm for Orlando City to take its time making off-season signings when compared to its fellow MLS teams, and that’s been the case once again this year. Granted, there are plenty of teams that have more spots to fill than the Lions and some teams are in the midst of outright rebuilds. Still, OCSC has several spots that are in need of strengthening, depth, or both, not to mention a Facundo Torres-sized hole out on the right wing. There’s absolutely work to be done, and while I’m all for taking the time to make sure you sign the right players, there’s also something to be said for giving those players as much time in preseason as possible to adapt to their new teammates and unfamiliar surroundings. Here’s hoping that some moves start getting made soon.
The Departure of Mason Stajduhar
I won’t lie to you guys, when the news came through on Wednesday afternoon that the Lions had traded Mason Stajduhar to Real Salt Lake for General Allocation Money and a draft pick, it was a tough blow and one that I’m still having trouble coming to terms with. Professional soccer is a business, and I understand that, but it’s tough to see a guy like Mason head out the door. The team’s fourth Homegrown Player had been around since 2015 and beat cancer, made his MLS debut, got his first MLS wins and shutouts, helped OCSC hoist the club’s first silverware as an MLS team, and got engaged and then married — all while wearing Orlando purple. As our editor Michael Citro put it, we watched him grow up from a teenager into a young man, and it’ll always be tough to watch someone leave who has been around for 10 years and has been a consummate professional for each one of them. I’ll miss him but wish him all the best.
What did you guys make of the first week of the 2025 preseason? Are there any things that you’re keeping a particularly close eye on as we begin building towards the match against Atletico Mineiro? Be sure to have your say down in the comments, and I’ll see you next week. Vamos Orlando!
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