Orlando City
Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run
An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.

Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.
Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:

This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):

This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.
There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):

I had three major takeaways from this data:
- Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
- Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
- The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.
Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.
I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.
Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.
PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.
The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.
Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.
Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.
I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.
Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.
The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.
Orlando City
Orlando City Showing Signs of Adjusting to Eduard Atuesta’s Absence
The Lions have looked much better on offense the last two games, and there’s a couple of reasons why.

Much has been made of Orlando City’s difficulties in creating chances and scoring goals when Eduard Atuesta has been unavailable due to injury. It’s not hard to understand why either. The Colombian was unavailable for three of Orlando’s four scoreless draws this year, and he only played nine minutes as a substitute in the stalemate against the New York Red Bulls on April 12.
When he was healthy and got the start against Atlanta United two games later, the Lions won 3-0 and he created the most chances of anyone in the game with three. Orlando then promptly reverted to being offensively stunted in the following game against the Chicago Fire, and was only able to manage its fourth scoreless draw of the year, despite playing over a half the game with a man advantage.
There certainly seemed to be plenty of evidence pointing towards Atuesta being the missing cog in Orlando City’s offense. While he only has two assists in eight games, he does a ton of work in linking the defense to the attack and is great at finding attacking players in dangerous areas, as evidenced by his 17 key passes. In the 0-0 draws with the Philadelphia Union, CF Montreal, and the Fire, Orlando just didn’t look right without him, although the Red Bulls game was a much better performance that was ultimately derailed by Rodrigo Schlegel’s sending off.
While he hasn’t played in either of Orlando’s last two league matches, a 3-3 draw against the New England Revolution, and a 3-1 win against Charlotte FC, the offense clearly hasn’t had any problem creating chances. If anything, the Lions should have scored more goals if not for a couple instances of less-than-crisp finishing in each match.
So, why the sudden change?
Well for one thing, the Designated Players are firing on all cylinders again. Martin Ojeda scored a hat trick against New England, and he and Luis Muriel scored Orlando’s first two goals against Charlotte. Ojeda didn’t start either of the two games against Atlanta and Chicago because he was dealing with a minor injury, but now that it’s in the rearview mirror, he’s been a man possessed. Muriel probably should have had at least one goal of his own against the Revs but seemed oddly reluctant to shoot, although he still completed three dribbles and delivered three key passes. The Charlotte game was then his turn to come out of the gate swinging, as he narrowly had a goal ruled out for offside just two minutes in, before hammering a venomous shot from distance just six minutes later that gave Kristijan Kahlina all sorts of trouble and opened the scoring.
It isn’t just getting contributions from the big guns though, because we need to acknowledge the play of rookie Joran Gerbet in these last two games. He’s the man who’s been asked to fill in for Atuesta next to Cesar Araujo, and he’s getting more and more comfortable in that role. Against the Revs he had an interception, a key pass and an assist, and completed a long ball and a through ball while recording a passing accuracy of 86.5%. Against Charlotte, he recorded an interception, three clearances, a completed dribble, and two successful long balls, and he had an outstanding passing accuracy of 98%. They weren’t all simply backwards or sideways passes either. There were plenty of times when he progressed the ball upfield to an attacking player and helped keep the Lions moving forward, and that’s exactly what you want out of the guy playing that position.
He still has a way to go before reaching Atuesta’s level, but that’s to be expected for a guy that’s playing the first professional season of his career. What’s most important is that he’s getting more comfortable, contributing, and proving that he can be a legitimate option to rotate into the starting XI when Atuesta is unavailable or when fixture congestion dictates changes to the lineup.
It’s worth mentioning the caveat that the last two games haven’t been against the strongest opposition the league has to offer. The Revs were on a four-game winning streak before playing Orlando, but three of those four wins were against weak or shaky teams in Atlanta, Toronto FC, and Charlotte, while the fourth team (NYCFC) has been difficult to get a read on. I’m not saying the Revs are a paper tiger, but it’s tough to know how good they really are despite a good run of recent form. Then you have Charlotte, which was above the playoff line but also on a three-game losing streak coming into the match that has now been convincingly extended to four.
At the end of the day, you can only beat who’s in front of you, but I’d encourage us all to not get too carried away until we see the same results against sterner opposition. For better or worse, that’s exactly what we’ll get in the Lions’ next three matches, which will be against a capable, albeit flawed, Inter Miami side on the road, at home in the U.S. Open Cup against a Nashville SC team that’s fourth in the East, and at home against the Portland Timbers, who are currently fourth in the West.
Ultimately, we can only judge this team on what we’ve seen from it, and over the last two games we’ve seen a side that’s had no trouble creating chances. Despite the continued absence of the important Atuesta, the Lions are adjusting thanks to contributions from their heavy hitters and the improving play of the rookie Gerbet. Only time will tell if those improvements are sustainable, but for now its a hell of a lot of fun to enjoy.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 5/16/25
Orlando City players make MLS Team of the Matchday, Luis Muriel focused, Orlando Pride plays tonight, and more.

Happy Friday! I’ve had a pretty good week so far and am looking forward to three straight days of Orlando soccer. The Orlando Pride will get us started tonight and then we have Orlando City B on Saturday before Orlando City plays on Sunday. It should be a fun next few days, and hopefully one filled with celebrations too. Let’s dive into today’s links!
Lions Make MLS Team of the Matchday
There’s plenty of purple in the latest MLS Team of the Matchday following Orlando City’s 3-1 win over Charlotte FC. Martin Ojeda and David Brekalo were both selected, while Oscar Pareja was chosen as the top coach from the midweek slate. Ojeda’s strike in the first half is also up for Goal of the Matchday as his strong run of form continues. The only outfield player on this Team of the Matchday that didn’t score is Brekalo, who had two assists, so it’s nice to see him receive deserved recognition for an excellent performance that included a great setup on Orlando’s third goal. Pareja has the Lions on an 11-game unbeaten streak across all competitions and is managing things well so far during this busy May.
Luis Muriel Staying Focused in Sophomore Season
With five goals so far this season, Orlando City forward Luis Muriel has already mirrored his scoring total from all of last season. Staying mentally prepared has been key for the 34-year-old in his second year with Orlando, and he spoke about what’s changed for him after not quite reaching expectations in his first year.
“Coming to a league like this isn’t easy. A lot of times from the outside, you aren’t able to measure up or really see what the league is. Sometimes you can underestimate things, thinking it’s easy,” Muriel said. “That leads you to take things on in a different way, the work, the matches.
“When you go into ‘MLS Mode’ you realize how good the league is, how competitive it is, how demanding the league is to be able to do things well. That’s when things start to flow, to go well. I think that’s the difference between this year and last.”
He’s finding his footing in the league now and was a force to be reckoned with against Charlotte on Wednesday. Muriel is aware that the Lions will need him to be at his best when they travel to take on Inter Miami on Sunday for an important rivalry clash.
Diving Into Justin Ellis’s Ascent
Victor Olorunfemi of Top Drawer Soccer gave a great profile on Orlando City B forward Justin Ellis and his growth with the club. Ellis, who just celebrated his 18th birthday on Wednesday with his MLS debut, is having a great year after a solid season with OCB last year. The high school senior was the top scorer at this year’s Generation Adidas Cup with six goals to help Orlando’s U-18 team win the tournament. He can create chances just as well as he can convert them and is quick to give credit to the coaches and staff that have helped him develop. The U.S. youth pool is deep, but Ellis could be a name to keep an eye out for ahead of the U-20 World Cup in September.
Orlando Pride Match Headlines NWSL Weekend
The Orlando Pride’s match tonight against the Kansas City Current is the premier matchup this week in the NWSL. While I wouldn’t call it a rivalry just yet, these two teams had great games last year. The Current are still out for revenge after Orlando beat them while shorthanded last summer and won again in the NWSL playoffs in Orlando before winning the NWSL Championship in Kansas City. First place in the league is on the line and it should be a thrilling match featuring the league’s top two defenses and attacking threats like Barbra Banda, Temwa Chawinga, Marta, and Debinha.
NWSL Contenders and Underperformers
We’re about a third of the way into the NWSL season and ESPN‘s Jeff Kassouf dove into how each team is meeting its expectations so far. Despite their stumbles in recent weeks, the Pride are near the top of the table and have plenty of time to get things firing on all cylinders. Two of the California teams are enjoying surprising success so far, with the San Diego Wave up in fourth while Angel City FC is in fifth and could become a real contender once Alexander Straus takes over as head coach. NJ/NY Gotham FC and the North Carolina Courage are sleeping giants of sorts, so it will be interesting to see when they start climbing up the table.
Free Kicks
- You’ll need a paid subscription for the full details, but Orlando City right back Alex Freeman continues to impress this season. Freeman is finding success in a way different from his father Antonio Freeman, who led the NFL in receiving yards for the Green Bay Packers in 1998.
- This year’s MLS pre-match jerseys to celebrate Pride month are out and they’re a vibrant and funky design.
- Esther Gonzalez leads the NWSL with seven goals this season and has agreed to a contract extension with Gotham FC that will last through 2027.
- FIFA representatives, including FA Chair Debbie Hewitt and UEFA President Alexander Ceferin, walked out of FIFA’s annual congress in protest of FIFA President Gianni Infantino arriving three hours late. Infantino has spent this week in the Middle East visiting leaders in Saudi Arabia and Qatar with Donald Trump.
- FC Barcelona officially won this year’s La Liga title after a 2-0 win over Espanyol. Phenom Lamine Yamal scored a sensational goal in the match, which is fitting considering how crucial he was to Barcelona winning the league this year.
- Predictable names like Luis Enrique and Antonio Conte are on the list of top European coaches this year, but this article also shines a light on coaches who navigated tough waters in small boats. Alexander Blessin has St. Pauli on the verge of survival in the Bundesliga and Filippo Inzaghi improved Pisa by 30 points in Serie B to secure promotion.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Inter Miami: Three Keys to Victory
What do the Lions need to do to secure a victory in Sunday’s edition of Tropic Thunder?

The first Tropic Thunder match of the season is here. As I recently said on The Mane Land PawedCast, I am both looking forward to and dreading this match. I think that is an appropriate feeling. Orlando City is in the midst of a congested May schedule, but every match matters.
Inter Miami tops my list of hated teams at this point. As such, I very much want the Lions to win and for Florida to be purple. What does Orlando City need to do to earn all three points on the road against their in-state rivals?
Pocket Messi
Orlando City must keep Lionel Messi from having too big of an impact on the match. There are plenty of other players that the defense will need to worry about, and I’ll get to them. What I’m looking for is a frustrated Messi — Messi that feels he should be getting calls on the lightest of touches but is not.
The pair of players that I’m expecting to keep an eye on Messi are Cesar Araujo and Rodrigo Schlegel. The lion’s share of that burden will fall to Araujo. I want him to be hounding Messi every time he gets the ball. If Messi is able to get past Araujo, I want Schlegel to be right in his face. We’re all sick of MLS and Apple TV putting his smug mug in our faces at every opportunity. It’s time for two of Orlando’s defenders to take the shine off of Messi.
Deal with the Rest
Assuming Araujo can limit Messi, Orlando City still has to deal with Miami’s talented attacking players not named Messi. Miami and Orlando entered Wednesday night’s game with the same number of goals scored (21) and allowed (15) this season, although the Herons conceded more at San Jose (3) than the Lions (1) did at home against Charlotte. Each scored three times on Wednesday. However, the memory of the last time the Lions faced Miami at Chase Stadium in Ft. Lauderdale is a 5-0 loss. That isn’t something we want to see again.
Theoretically, no match is more important than another, although an argument could be made that Tropic Thunder is no mere match. I fully expect a starting back line of Alex Freeman, Schlegel, Robin Jansson, and David Brekalo in front of Pedro Gallese to stop Miami’s attack. A clean sheet is the objective.
Alex vs. Alba
As you can tell, this is a very defensive heavy Three Keys, but given what happened in this fixture last year, I don’t think it’s out of line. Alex Freeman has been good this season. He has secured the starting spot at right back and seems unlikely to give it back. One of the things he is good at is getting into the attack with Marco Pasalic. That isn’t what I’m looking for from him this weekend.
Miami’s Jordi Alba is a dangerous player that Freeman will be expected to help contain. Alba has five assists, seven successful crosses, and 13 key passes so far this season. If Freeman is still getting up the pitch to assist in the attack, he will need to make sure he isn’t allowing Alba free rein to get behind him and serve as a provider in Orlando’s half of the field.
That is what I will be looking for Sunday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
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