Orlando City
Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run
An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.
Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.
Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:
This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):
This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.
There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):
I had three major takeaways from this data:
- Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
- Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
- The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.
Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.
I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.
Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.
PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.
The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.
Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.
Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.
I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.
Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.
The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.
Orlando City
Orlando City Giving the Kids A Look
This preseason, Oscar Pareja is letting Orlando City’s young academy products show what they can do.
Orlando City finished its 2025 preseason campaign with a 2-2 draw against Inter Miami CF Friday night at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. It capped off the first winless preseason campaign in club history. However, there were some positives to take away from the past three weeks.
Since Luiz Muzzi joined the club in Dec. 2018 and subsequently brought Ricardo Moreira on, there’s been a much greater focus on bringing players through the club’s youth setup. No fewer than nine players have come out of the academy; played for the club’s second team, Orlando City B; and signed Homegrown contracts with the first team since the pair took over. It’s something that’s continued this year.
The two most notable additions have been 18-year-old defensive midfielder Colin Guske and 16-year-old midfielder Gustavo Caraballo. Guske is the third member of his family to come through the academy and join OCB. He follows his older brothers Owen and Liam. However, the youngest Guske is the only one to sign a first-team deal.
It’s not a surprise that the young defensive midfielder has seen time on the field this preseason. He played the most minutes of anyone his age in MLS NEXT Pro last year and just signed a first-team deal on Dec. 16.
The bigger surprise has been Caraballo. The 16-year-old signed with the Young Lions on Aug. 14, 2023, and has only made two short appearances. But Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja clearly thought enough of the young player to throw him into the deep end, starting him in the team’s preseason opener against Atletico Mineiro on Jan. 25.
Fortunately, he swam well this preseason, showing his ability from the opening game. The teenager has shown no fear, even when going up against older, experienced opposition. His fearlessness with the ball has been impressive, especially for someone of his age.
A player you might see more of this year for the first team is right back Alex Freeman. The 20-year-old defender has been arguably the most impressive of the young players and played extensively this preseason. The Homegrown Player scored against Atlanta United in a closed-door friendly and was crucial in several attacks this preseason.
A fourth player is one some probably thought wouldn’t be back with the team this year. Center back Thomas Williams initially signed a Homegrown deal on June 15, 2021. After a strong start with the first team, he’s played exclusively with OCB the last couple of years and has had his struggles. He’s been regularly outplayed by Nabi Kibunguchy and often found himself on the bench for the reserve side.
Despite his inconsistency, Orlando City signed him to a new two-year deal on Jan. 22, keeping him in Orlando through 2026. Since he’s only 20 years old, it’s not a surprise the club thinks he can develop into a productive first-team player. However, the club didn’t pick up the option on Wilfredo Rivera at the same age, signing him to OCB instead.
The playing time awarded to Guske, Caraballo, and Williams show the club’s continuing commitment to developing Homegrown talent. Even Rivera was kept at the club after the Lions decided not to exercise his option and signed multiple short-term MLS deals last year.
In all likelihood, none of these players will see significant time with the first team in 2025. However, they showed their abilities this preseason and could be future starters for the club. They’ll make watching OCB a must for Orlando City fans this season to see how they do.
There are some other players to pay attention to this year for OCB. 19-year-old academy product Zakaria Taifi has shown improvement on the back line and played during the club’s preseason game against CF Montreal. Jhon Solis, a 20-year-old midfielder, didn‘t come through the academy, but has been a leader for the second team and saw some minutes for the first team this preseason. Additionally, Pareja found minutes for Bernardo Rhein in the Montreal match and he looked solid playing against much more experienced competition.
As the 2025 season begins, we’ll probably find out more about who the club covets. Orlando City is playing in three competitions this season and will likely use some OCB players in less important games. It’s another thing to look forward to this year.
Orlando City
Orlando City Signs First-Round Pick Joran Gerbet
The Lions have signed 2025 their first-round SuperDraft pick through the upcoming season with a series of option years.
Orlando City announced today that the club has signed 2025 MLS first-round selection Joran Gerbet through the 2025 MLS season, with club options for 2026, 2027 and 2028. The 23-year-old central midfielder has impressed this preseason and now has earned his first professional contract.
“Joran is a great young player that we identified through our detailed analysis and scouting process ahead of the draft,” Orlando City Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manger Luiz Muzzi said in a club press release. “He has done well and worked hard in training this preseason and has great technical abilities that we feel really add to and complement our preferred style of play.”
The Lions selected Gerbet in the first round (No. 27 overall) out of Clemson University in the 2025 MLS SuperDraft. The native of Valence, France, began his highly decorated collegiate career at Oregon State University, playing two seasons before transferring to Clemson for his final two years. He was a 2024 Mac Hermann Trophy semifinalist, ACC Midfielder of the Year, a first-team United Soccer Coaches All-American, and earned United Soccer Coaches First Team All-South Region honors. He was also a first-team All-ACC selection and made the All-ACC Tournament Team as a senior.
The 5-foot-11 midfielder helped lead the Tigers to a national championship in 2023 after Clemson won the ACC Tournament, in which Gerbet was named to the All-ACC Tournament Team. He was a third-team All-ACC selection in 2023, a member of the Academic All-ACC Team, and earned United Soccer Coaches Second Team All-South Region honors. While at Oregon State, Gerbet was named the Pac-12 Player of the Year and was an All-Pac-12 First Team selection in 2022. He was Pac-12 Freshman of the Year in 2021 as well as a First Team All-Pac-12 Team and Second Team All-Far West Region selection. Top Drawer Soccer placed him on the site’s Freshman Best XI first team.
Gerbet played in 78 games (76 starts), logging 6,708 minutes over the course of his college career. He scored 12 goals and added 15 assists. Of those, 10 goals and 11 assists came in 42 appearances (40 starts) with the Tigers in his final two years.
“It’s an immense honor to be part of this organization and this team for the next step of my journey,” Gerbet said in the club’s release. “Every person has welcomed me with open arms since I got here, and it has felt like home since day one. I can’t wait to represent the badge in front of our fans and give everything on the field to bring the wins and the trophies that this club deserves.”
What It Means for Orlando City
Gerbet’s signing has seemed all but certain since the CF Montreal preseason match. The addition of Eduard Atuesta means Orlando City won’t need to rush Gerbet into the lineup, allowing him to develop without too much pressure, although he appears to be ready to step in and get minutes off the bench already.
The rookie appears to have better than average attacking skills for a central midfielder. He told me after the Atletico Mineiro match that he sees himself as a No. 6 who can play the No. 8 role. His curling effort off the crossbar against Montreal showed he’s got sneaky good offensive capabilities, making him a dangerous player arriving late in the box.
Gerbet will provide good depth behind Cesar Araujo and Atuesta during what will likely be a season without Wilder Cartagena, mitigating the need to rush Colin Guske into first-team minutes if injury or suspension keep one of the starters out.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 2/17/25
Lions draw in Tampa vs. Inter Miami in final preseason match, Pride sign Cori Dyke to a new contract and add Oihane Hernandez, and more.
Hello, Mane Landers, and happy President’s Day! I hope you all are doing well down in Florida over the holiday weekend. I’ve been covering high school playoff basketball and hockey over the past week. Orlando City’s home opener is coming up Saturday, and like many of you, I look forward to seeing what the Lions can do during the 2025 MLS season. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.
Lions Draw Inter Miami 2-2 in Final Preseason Match
In its final preseason match, Orlando City could not hold onto the lead and got out of Tampa with a 2-2 draw against rival Inter Miami Friday at Raymond James Stadium. The Lions were up 2-1 with goals from Martin Ojeda and Ramiro Enrique, but Fafa Picault scored the equalizer in stoppage time. Orlando finishes its 2025 preseason without a win for the first time in club history. The 2025 MLS season will kick off this weekend as Orlando City will face the Philadelphia Union on Saturday at Inter&Co Stadium.
Orlando Pride Add Defender Oihane Hernandez
On Friday, the Orlando Pride announced a new addition as the club signed defender Oihane Hernandez from Real Madrid Femenil for an undisclosed transfer fee. The contract is a two-year deal through the 2026 season with a mutual option for 2027. The 24-year-old right back played two seasons with Real Madrid Femenil, notching two assists in 31 appearances. Hernandez also brings international experience playing with the Spanish Women’s National Team and was part of the squad that won the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup. Hernandez’s joins a growing right back position group, which includes Brianna Martinez and…
Orlando Pride Sign Cori Dyke to Contract Extension
The Orlando Pride extended the contract of defender Cori Dyke after a stellar rookie year last season. Dyke’s new contract is through the 2027 season. The 24-year-old defender made 26 appearances, started 21 matches, logged 1,095 minutes, and stepped up to play right back to help Orlando win the NWSL Shield and NWSL Championship last season. It’s the third contract she has signed with the club in less than a year. Dyke’s role with the club for 2025 remains to be seen, but she has proven to be a versatile player.
MLS Transfer Roundup
We are four days away from kicking off of the 2025 MLS season, and there are still some notable transfer moves happening across the league. The Colorado Rapids have reportedly acquired midfielder Josh Atencio from the Seattle Sounders in exchange for $1.3 million in General Allocation Money plus add-ons. Atencio will be an MLS U22 Initiative player on the Rapids roster. Meanwhile, Brazilian side Botafogo is reportedly finalizing a deal to sign Santi Rodriguez from New York City FC.
Toronto FC has signed forward Ola Brynhildsen on loan for the 2025 season from Danish side FC Midtjylland, which includes a purchase option. LAFC has transferred forward Cristian Olivera to Gremio in Brazil for a reported $4.5 million, which includes a sell-on fee. Lastly, Palmeiras is reportedly finalizing a deal with the Houston Dynamo to sign center back Micael for a club record fee.
Free Kicks
- The District Press released its 2025 MLS jersey rankings, and Orlando City was ranked 19th on their lists.
- Former Lion Daryl Dike returned to the pitch for West Brom over the weekend, coming off the bench in the second half against Millwall after being sidelined for over a year dealing with multiple injuries. The match ended in a 1-1 draw.
- Former Orlando Pride defender Carrie Lawrence has found a new role after retiring from professional soccer at the end of last season. She was named the director of global women’s soccer recruitment for Young Money APAA Sports.
- Check out this article from Goal.com on how Orlando has established itself as a soccer city over the years.
- Bay FC goalkeeper Katelyn Rowland announced her retirement from professional soccer after a 10-year career in which she won four NWSL championship titles.
- Manchester United forward Amad Diallo suffered an ankle injury while training and will likely be out for the remainder of the season.
- New York City FC midfielder James Sands, who is on loan at St. Pauli, underwent surgery on Sunday to repair a serious right ankle injury he suffered during their match on Friday against Freiburg that will keep him sidelined indefinitely. No timetable is set for his return.
- The U-17 U.S. Men’s National Team defeated Cuba 2-0 to wrap up Group F play and has qualified for the U-17 FIFA World Cup, which will take place in November in Qatar.
That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.
Orlando City Giving the Kids A Look
Orlando City Signs First-Round Pick Joran Gerbet
Lion Links: 2/17/25
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