Connect with us

Orlando City

Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run

An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.

Published

2 years ago

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.

Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:

This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):

This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.

There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):

I had three major takeaways from this data:

  1. Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
  2. Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
  3. The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.

Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.

I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.

Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.

PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.

The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.

Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.

Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.

I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.

Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.

The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/21/26

Catching up with Daryl Dike, Antoine Griezmann’s impact, Giles Barnes leaves Orlando Pride, and more.

Published

10 hours ago

on

July 21, 2026

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

Good morning, everyone, and happy Orlando City matchday eve. It seems like an eternity since the Lions played way back in late May, but a competitive OCSC game is finally almost upon us, and we’ll have our first chance to see both a new face and a familiar one. We’ve got a lot to talk about this morning, so let’s get into the links.

Catching Up with Daryl Dike

Daryl Dike is wearing Orlando City purple for the second time in his career, and he took some time to express his thoughts and feelings about returning to the club where he got his start. He emphasized how much fun he had during his first stint with the Lions and said the happy memories from his time with OCSC were a big factor in wanting to come back. Despite Robin Jansson being the only teammate left from his first spell with the team, Dike spoke about things feeling very familiar and welcoming. Dike was part of the first Orlando team to ever make the playoffs, and he’s focused on keeping that streak alive for the club now that he’s a Lion once more.

Antoine Griezmann’s Impact

Antoine Griezmann has yet to play an official game for Orlando City,but he’s already making an impact on the team. Interim head coach Martin Perelman praised his presence in the locker room and highlighted the Frenchman’s humility and energy. He certainly brings a lot of experience at the highest level and has the trophy cabinet to prove it, so the club is hoping some of that rubs off on the Lions. After all, the club isn’t that far away from the playoff line, has a U.S. Open Cup semifinal looming in mid-September, and will begin Leagues Cup play in just over two weeks. Here’s hoping his off-field impact carries over onto the field too.

Giles Barnes Leaves Orlando Pride

Giles Barnes has departed from his position as an assistant coach for the Orlando Pride. The former OCSC forward has agreed to become the new head coach of Al Qadsiah FC, a team in the Saudi Women’s Premier League. Barnes had been an assistant with the Pride since the 2022 season, when he joined on an interim basis with then-interim head coach Seb Hines. He helped lead the team to the 2024 NWSL Championship and 2024 NWSL Shield. As a player, Barnes spent the 2017 season with Orlando City as a Designated Player. This will be Barnes’ first head coaching gig, and we wish him the best of luck!

FIFA Will Investigate Post-Final Clashes

FIFA has begun a disciplinary investigation into the clashes that took place at the end of the World Cup final, which saw several Argentine coaches and players involved in physical altercations with Spanish players. Argentina’s Nahuel Molina and Leandro Paredes were seen hitting Spain’s Eric Garcia and Rodri, while Argentine assistant coach Roberto Ayala appears to have hit Dani Olmo. Lionel Scaloni and multiple players attempted to defuse the situations that were playing out, one of which included a verbal confrontation between Nicolas Otamendi and former Manchester City teammate Rodri. FIFA has opened a review of the postgame scenes, and suspensions could well be on the way for the worst offenders.

Free Kicks

  • Barbra Banda has been called up to represent Zambia at WAFCON.
  • Marco Pasalic was still absent from training as of Monday morning, amidst rumors surrounding a possible summer departure. Perelman said he will be back soon, however.

That’s all I’ve got for you today. Vamos Orlando!

Continue Reading

Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/20/26

Pride fall to Utah Royals, OCB draws Chattanooga FC, Orlando City signs Clovis Archange, and more.

Published

1 day ago

on

July 20, 2026

By

Image of Pedro Leao taking a penalty against Carolina Core FC.
Image courtesy of Orlando City B / Mark Thor

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I’ve been busy at work, but I checked out a Noah Kahan concert and watched the World Cup final while catching up with friends over the weekend. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Orlando Pride Fall at Utah Royals

The Orlando Pride fell 1-0 to the Utah Royals at America First Field Saturday night. Narumi Miura scored the lone goal for Utah to secure the win, while the Pride have lost back-to-back matches after losing to Boston Legacy Wednesday. That result also dropped Orlando below the playoff line, as the club sits ninth in the NWSL table with 20 points. The Pride will return home for their next match against the Chicago Stars Friday at Inter&Co Stadium.

OCB Wins Penalty Shootout After 1-1 Draw vs. Chattanooga FC

Orlando City B drew Chattanooga FC 1-1 on the road at Finley Stadium Saturday. Pedro Leao scored the opener for the Young Lions in the first half. However, in the second half, Chattanooga FC scored the equalizer. The Young Lions won the penalty shootout 4-3 to earn a second point. OCB will be back in action at home Sunday, facing Huntsville City FC at Osceola County Stadium.

Orlando City Signs Clovis Archange to Homegrown Player Contract

Orlando City announced Friday that the club has signed defender Clovis Archange to a Homegrown Player contract with the first team. The deal is a three-year contract lasting through the 2027 calendar year, with club options in 2028 and 2029. Archange has made six appearances across all competitions for OCB during the 2026 MLS NEXT Pro season.

Latest MLS Transfer Roundup

According to Tom Bogert of The Athletic, there is no movement on the rumored Orlando City forward Marco Pasalic’s potential transfer to Hull City, but the English Premier League side has reportedly inquired about a loan deal.

The Columbus Crew have signed former Manchester United and Real Oviedo center back Eric Bailly. The contract runs through June 2027, with club options for the 2027-2028 and 2028-2029 seasons. Liga MX side CF Monterrey is reportedly finalizing a deal to sign Chicago Fire forward Hugo Cuypers.

LAFC has reportedly reached an agreement with Hammarby on a transfer fee to move midfielder Amin Boudri to the Swedish club. Lastly, San Diego FC is reportedly finalizing a deal to sign winger Elias Achouri from FC Copenhagen.

🇹🇳 Sources: San Diego FC is finalizing a deal to sign Tunisia int'l winger Elias Achouri from FC Copenhagen.Achouri, 27, joins San Diego as a Designated Player. He had 5g/7a in 2,368 mins (37 apps) last year & played in all 3 games for Tunisia at the World Cup

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2026-07-18T16:37:04.314Z

Spain Wins World Cup

Spain defeated Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the 2026 FIFA World Cup final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, Sunday to win the World Cup for the second time since 2010. Argentina midfielder Enzo Fernandez was sent off in stoppage time after committing a foul on Spain defender Pau Cubarsi. The match went to extra time, and Ferran Torres scored the winning goal for Spain in the 106th minute. Argentina was unable to find a late equalizer to send the match to penalties. Argentina was looking to repeat as champions but had only two shots in the game (both in extra time) and failed to record a shot on goal. As for the FIFA World Cup awards, Spain midfielder Rodri took the Best Player Award, while France striker Kylian Mbappe won the Golden Boot Award with 10 goals, the Golden Glove Award went to Spain goalkeeper Unai Simon, and Cubarsi won the Young Player Award.

Free Kicks

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

Continue Reading

Orlando City

Daryl Dike Returns to Orlando City, Signs Deal Through 2027

Daryl Dike is back with the Lions after being out of contract with West Bromwich Albion.

Published

4 days ago

on

July 17, 2026

By

Image of Daryl Dike posing in his Orlando City kit after re-signing with the club on July 17, 2026.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Striker Daryl Dike has returned to the club that gave him his professional start. Orlando City announced today that it has signed Dike as a free agent through the 2027 MLS “sprint season” with an option for 2027-2028. The club also had to send $75,000 in 2027 General Allocation Money (GAM) to the Seattle Sounders in exchange for Dike’s Discovery Priority and could owe the Western Conference side another $75,000 in GAM if Dike meets undisclosed performance metrics.

The signing gives Dike a new start after an injury-plagued career at West Bromwich Albion.

“Daryl is a player our club and our fans know well, and we’re very excited to welcome him back to Orlando,” Orlando City General Manager and Sporting Director Ricardo Moreira said in a club press release. “He brings a powerful combination of strength, speed, and physical presence, and his ability to hold up play, bring teammates into the attack, and finish chances gives us another important option up front. Daryl has already shown what he can do in our league and in this city, and we look forward to helping him make an impact again in purple.” 

Dike, who will wear No. 9 for the Lions, returns nearly five years since Orlando City sold him to West Brom on Jan. 3, 2022, for a fee reported by The Athletic to be around $10 million.

The Edmond, OK native was Orlando City’s first-round selection with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2020 MLS SuperDraft. As a rookie, he started to see minutes on the pitch during the MLS is Back Tournament, making his professional debut against the Montreal Impact in the competition’s round of 16. From there, the striker out of the University of Virginia blossomed, playing in 35 regular-season matches with Orlando, including 30 starts, for a total of 2,547 minutes. He contributed 18 goals and seven assists on 63 shots, getting 27 on target. He passed well (71.1% in 2020 and 72.1% in 2021), providing 14 key passes. Dike drew 71 fouls while committing 40 and was never booked during the regular season in his time in MLS.

He also played in all three of Orlando City’s playoff games during his first stint with the club, starting all three and scoring one goal on five total shots (two on target). He suffered seven fouls and committed four, and picked up one yellow card in the 2020 postseason.

Following his rookie season, Dike went on loan to Barnsley, where he scored nine goals in 22 matches from February to May of 2021.

Dike’s play with the Lions in his first two professional seasons quickly put him on the USMNT radar and before he was sold to West Brom he made eight appearances and scored three goals for the United States at the senior level. He has added two more caps since for a total of 10.

After his sale to West Brom in the EFL Championship, Dike struggled to stay on the pitch, dealing with Achilles injuries that kept him off the pitch for long stretches. Dike managed to score 11 goals in 68 matches when healthy. He scored twice and added an assist in 24 matches in 2025-2026, starting six times, as he was finally able to get a stretch of games in.

“I’m thrilled to be back where it all started,” Dike said in the club’s press release. “Orlando is where I first got the opportunity to play professionally, and returning here feels like coming home. From the moment I arrived the first time, I felt welcomed, and that same feeling has only grown since I’ve come back. Everyone has been incredibly supportive, and I’m grateful to be back in Orlando.” 

What It Means for Orlando City

Dike fills a hole vacated by the trade of Duncan McGuire to the Houston Dynamo a week ago. It will be interesting to see where his salary slots in when the MLS Players’ Association reveals its next salary information. McGuire, who had his own injury struggles in recent years, made a base salary of $600,000 and a total guaranteed annual compensation of over $920,000.

The hope will be that Dike can both stay healthy and contribute at a higher level than McGuire was prior to his trade to Houston. The new scenery may do McGuire good and a return to familiar surroundings may similarly help Dike regain his footing. At just 26 years old, Dike is still in his prime years and there are plenty of miles left in Dike’s legs if he can stay on the pitch. Fans will remember how he tossed center backs around like rag dolls during his two previous seasons in Orlando. That kind of physicality will open a lot of room underneath for Antoine Griezmann and Martin Ojeda.

With just a year and a half on the base deal, this is a low-risk and potentially very high-reward signing for the Lions.

Continue Reading

Trending