Orlando City
Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run
An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.
Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.
Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:

This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):

This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.
There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):

I had three major takeaways from this data:
- Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
- Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
- The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.
Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.
I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.
Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.
PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.
The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.
Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.
Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.
I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.
Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.
The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.
Orlando City
Flashback Friday: June 3, 2023 vs. New York Red Bulls
Let’s rewind to an eventful match on the road up in New Jersey that took place just over three years ago.
With Orlando City on break for the foreseeable future, it falls to me to keep bringing you fond memories from OCSC games of years gone by. We won’t be going quite as deep into the vault as we did last week, when we rewound to nine years ago and relived a wet and weird win over D.C. United. Today, we’ll go a little over three years into the past to June 3, 2023, when the Lions hit the road to take on the New York Red Bulls.
As Orlando prepared to face the Red Bulls after opening the season against them at home, things were going pretty well for the Lions. They were riding a four-game unbeaten streak that included some solid results on the road and sought to continue that trend up in Harrison, NJ.
To do that, then-coach Oscar Pareja sent out the team in his traditional 4-2-3-1. Pedro Gallese was in net, while Kyle Smith, Antonio Carlos, Robin Jansson, and Rafael Santos manned the back line. Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena sat in deep midfield as the double pivots, Ivan Angulo, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres were the attacking midfielders, and Ercan Kara was deployed as the tip of the proverbial spear.
By and large, the first half wasn’t the most engaging 45 minutes of soccer that Orlando City has ever graced us with. The first 15 minutes saw a lot of fouls and fairly sloppy play, with the game lacking any real rhythm but featuring plenty of stops, starts, and turnovers. That all changed in the 18th minute when Orlando broke the deadlock through an unlikely source. The Lions managed to break New York’s press, and Cartagena took advantage of an out-of-position John Tolkin to play Angulo behind the defense with a great ball. The Colombian carried the ball into the box, cut onto his left foot to avoid the sliding challenge of Dylan Nealis, and beat goalkeeper Carlos Coronel to score his third goal of the season.
The Red Bulls had a great opportunity to tie the game in the 30th minute after a bad Pereyra giveaway at midfield, but Luquinhas hit a tame shot at Gallese and failed to capitalize. Smith of all people had a crack at goal from inside the box just a few minutes before halftime, but he sent his effort wide of the post when he really should have hit the target. Tom Barlow then wasted another chance to put the game at 1-1 going into halftime but contrived to fire over the bar from the top of the area when all he had to do was hit the empty net.
That proved to be the last action of the half, and it was surprising to see Orlando in the lead based on the stats. Orlando held slightly more possession (52.1%-47.9%) and passed marginally better (76.1%-74.9%) but those were the only categories in which it led. The Lions were outshot (7-2), had fewer shots on goal (2-1), and took no corner kicks while the Red Bulls had one.
Fortunately, the Lions got a break just a couple minutes into the second half. Kara ran onto a ball over the top and New York center back Andres Reyes pulled him back, picked up a deserved second yellow card, and hit the showers early in the 47th minute.
New York cleared the danger from the ensuing free kick, but referee Victor Rivas was advised to go to the monitor and check for a foul during the play. Further examination revealed that Sean Nealis took Jansson down from behind as the ball was in the air, and he rightfully pointed to the spot. Enter Torres, who stepped up and beat Coronel (who guessed the right way), to double Orlando’s advantage despite the Paraguayan trying to get in his head beforehand.
The good vibes were dented slightly when Araujo went down injured in the 57th minute, with Felipe coming on in his place. The Red Bulls kept up their traditional high pressing despite being down a man, and with the Lions continuing to be sloppy in possession, it was hard to blame them. The teams traded chances right after Araujo made his exit, and some close calls for New York spurred Pareja into further changes, with Duncan McGuire and Martin Ojeda entering the fray for Kara and Pereyra in the 62nd minute.
Angulo squeezed off a shot from an acute angle three minutes later and Coronel saved it well, with the game entering a bit of a lull after he did so as the teams traded fouls and McGuire was caught offside.
Things sprang back into life in the 72nd minute. Ojeda cleared his lines and managed to find Angulo in the process, who absolutely torched Frankie Amaya down the left wing. The Colombian carried the ball into the box, drew Tolkin to him, and crossed perfectly for the unmarked Torres, who fired low and hard past Coronel with conviction to put the game away for good.
Despite being down 3-0, the Red Bulls kept up the fight and Jansson was forced into a good block just four minutes after Facu bagged his brace. The Lions spurned a few more half chances as the game wound down, and there was a scary moment in the 82nd minute when Dylan Nealis fell into Gallese’s leg, but the goalkeeper was able to soldier on after getting some treatment, although he looked a little shaky.
That more or less did it for the notable moments of action, as Orlando saw out a healthy eight minutes of stoppage time to make it five games unbeaten. The Lions finished with more possession (51.2%-48.8%) and more shots on target (5-2), but New York was crisper with its passing (79.2%-78%), took more shots (14-7), and won more corners (8-2).
David Rohe was on hand for our Player Grades column in this one, and Angulo took Man of the Match honors with an 8 out of 10 for his one-goal, one-assist performance that also included three completed dribbles, two tackles, and an interception. Torres unsurprisingly also graded out high with a 7.5 out of 10, as did Cartagena, who received the same grade.
The Lions went on to grab one more victory before the undefeated streak ended at six up in Foxborough against the New England Revolution. Fortunately, they started picking up points again immediately afterward and had a largely strong summer and back half of the year that saw them finish second in both the Eastern Conference and Supporters’ Shield race. Hopefully, this year’s side can take some cues from the 2023 squad and start stacking points with more regularity once the season resumes in July. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 6/5/26
Maxime Crepeau named Canada’s starter, analyzing Germany before USMNT friendly, USWNT prepares for Brazil, and more.
Happy Friday, Mane Landers! It’s been a pretty hectic week for me, but I’m looking forward to a weekend filled with soccer and celebrating with some friends. It should be a nice next couple of days before the World Cup is here in full force next week. Before we dive into today’s links, let’s all wish a happy birthday to Orlando City B midfielder Dylan Judelson!
Canada Chooses Maxime Crepeau as Starting Goalkeeper
Orlando City goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau was named as the starter for Canada for the upcoming World Cup. The 32-year-old has been in a tight battle with Dayne St. Clair for the starting job for quite some time and he’s done well enough for Jesse Marsch to choose him for the role. This will be Crepeau’s first World Cup since he wasn’t able to take part in the 2022 competition due to a broken leg. Canada will play Ireland today in a friendly before hosting Bosnia and Herzegovina in the World Cup on June 12.
Analyzing Germany Ahead of USMNT Clash
The United States Men’s National Team will take on Germany on Saturday in Chicago in its final friendly before the World Cup starts next week. This will be the 13th match between the two nations, with the most recent one being a 3-1 loss by the U.S. in October of 2023. Manuel Neuer is Germany’s starting goalkeeper, but he’s dealing with an injury and backup Oliver Baumann could play on Saturday in his place. Hopefully the U.S. can make his life difficult, but Germany has tough defenders in Jonathan Tah and Nico Schlotterbeck. Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertz, and Leroy Sane are dangerous attacking threats, while Nick Woltemade brings both height and solid ball movement at the top of the formation. It should be a great test for the USMNT before the games get serious.
USWNT Prepares for Brazil
The United States Women’s National Team is in action on Saturday as well, with the team set to play Brazil in Sao Paulo in the first of two friendlies. Plenty of attention will be on the reunited attacking trio of Sophia Wilson, Trinity Rodman, and Mallory Swanson that combined for 10 goals and five assists in the 2024 Summer Olympics. As for Brazil, the Orlando Pride are well represented, with Marta, Angelina, and Rafaelle all called up for these friendlies. There’s plenty of competing talent on Brazil’s roster, so it will be interesting to see who starts on Saturday. I’m most interested to see how the U.S. defense manages against Brazilian attackers like Ludmila, Dudinha, and Kerolin without having Naomi Girma on the back line.
Liverpool Hires Andoni Iraola as Next Manager
Liverpool didn’t waste much time finding a new manager after firing Arne Slot last week, hiring Andoni Iraola as his replacement. Iraola joins Liverpool after three years with Bournemouth that included securing Europa League qualification for the first time in club history this past season. He now joins a Liverpool team that qualified for the Champions League, but lost 12 league games after winning the league title in 2025. It will be interesting to see how Iraola does at one of England’s biggest clubs, particularly in regards to how his high-octane approach is applied.
Free Kicks
- While the Pride haven’t provided an injury update on Barbra Banda according to reporter Jeff Kassouf, she did reportedly travel for Zambia’s friendlies against Kenya and Burkina Faso as the team prepares for next month’s Women’s Africa Cup of Nations tournament.
- MLS created profiles for each league player taking part in this World Cup, providing info on their statistics and experience. Make sure to check out the ones for Orlando City’s Maxime Crepeau, Marco Pasalic, and Braian Ojeda.
- The Columbus Crew will take on Burnley in an exhibition on July 12, which is between the quarterfinals and semifinals of the World Cup.
- Enjoy this cool story on how former USMNT striker Jozy Altidore will be part of Telemundo’s World Cup coverage as a commentator for the Spanish network.
- Bayer Leverkusen fired Kasper Hjulmand after a sixth-place finish in the Bundesliga this past season, replacing him with Carles Martínez Novell.
- Here’s an insightful look into how soccer provides an opportunity for young Brazilian players in Rio de Janeiro’s favelas.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastical Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
According to Math, Orlando Among Top Soccering Cities in North America In 2026
A ranking of every North American city by its soccer performances thus far in 2026.
The opening match of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup kicks off one week from today, when Mexico hosts South Africa at Estadio Azteca Mexico City Stadium (thanks FIFA, for your silly stadium-naming policy). Like most soccer fans, I am excited for wall-to-wall games starting next week, but I will definitely also be missing the men and women in purple as Orlando City and the Orlando Pride will not play again until early July (Pride) and late July (Orlando City).
MLS NEXT Pro channeled its inner Red Hot Chili Peppers and said they “can’t stop, they’re addicted to the shindig” and will continue to play a normal weekly schedule throughout the World Cup, so thankfully we will still have the Young Lions to root for during this break. But aside from that, it will be all international soccer for the upcoming weeks, and primarily in North America.
With that in mind, I took a deeper look at the beautiful game on our beautiful continent and evaluated which cities in North America are having the best soccer-related 2026 so far. There are no actual rankings for this, so I created my own, using the following components:
- I awarded a half point to the city of every team in Liga MX, Liga MX Femenil, Major League Soccer (MLS), NWSL, and the Northern Super League (Canada’s top domestic women’s league). This covers the highest levels of club competition on the continent. I did not include the Canadian Premier League (men’s, ranked 159th among men’s leagues by Opta) or the Gainbridge Super League (women’s, ranked 35th among women’s leagues), because even though those are considered leagues at the highest level of competition in their countries, they do not compare to the five leagues I included. Also, Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver all have teams in MLS.
- I awarded a full point to every city that is hosting World Cup games. This is a little sticky because some stadiums and/or teams represent metropolitan areas as opposed to the actual zip/area code location for the team or stadium, but I did some rounding. I had to put my mathematics degree to good use.
- I averaged the points earned per match per team in that city, and awarded that total number of points to the city. Orlando, for example, received 1.18 points in this category, as Orlando City is averaging 0.93 (this was disappointing to type) and the Pride are averaging 1.42.
- I awarded a point to the city of each quarterfinalist in the 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup and U.S. Open Cup, and a subsequent point for each win by those teams.
- I awarded a point to the city of each semifinalist in the 2026 Concacaf W Champions Cup (this tournament went straight to the semifinals after the group stage), and a subsequent point for each win by those teams, excluding the third-place game.
After I awarded all those points, I rested for a minute, and then I summed up all the points for each city to see which cities are having the best 2026 so far (there are 47 North American cities/metro areas with at least one team in the leagues I included).
As this is an Orlando-focused publication, let’s take a look at the City Beautiful and how we fared. There are two professional teams in Orlando that count, so a half point for Orlando City plus a half point for the Pride accounted for one total point. With how well OCB has been playing (fourth in the Eastern Conference and winners of three of its last four games), I wish I could have included MLS NEXT Pro teams in the points system, but including that league did not make sense.
OCB would have helped with the average points metric as well, as it is averaging 1.83 points per match, the best in Orlando. Restricting it down to Orlando City and the Pride, however, added the 1.18 points that I referenced in the bullets earlier.
The Lions are in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals, which earned them one point for being a quarterfinalist and another point for winning that quarterfinal match, so they picked up two points from the U.S. Open Cup.
Orlando was not selected to be a host city for any World Cup games, Orlando City did not qualify for this year’s Concacaf Champions Cup, and the Pride nearly qualified for the semifinals of the Concacaf W Champions Cup but fell just short (ugh, because they really should have advanced), so Orlando did not pick up any points from any of those three categories.
With the points that Orlando accumulated it has tallied a total of 4.18 points so far in 2026. Let’s take a look at where 4.18 puts Orlando in the city rankings:

The cities in the chart above are sorted alphabetically, for ease of finding any cities you are interested in picking out, but the chart below shows the same data but sorted from most to fewest points earned:

In looking at this chart, you will find Orlando just outside the top 10, sitting in the lucky number 13 spot. Unsurprisingly, most of the teams at the top are among the largest cities on the continent and were also selected to be World Cup host cities. Among cities not selected as host cities, and therefore cities that did not receive a one-point bump in my rubric, Orlando ranked fifth, trailing Toluca (Mexico), Nashville, Washington D.C., and Denver.
If the Pride had played a little better in the Concacaf W Champions Cup, and had Barbra Banda not gotten injured and missed the entire group stage last summer, Orlando likely would have qualified for at least the semifinals in that cup and finished in the top six, or perhaps even higher, of these rankings.
It should come as no surprise to soccer fans that Mexican cities dominate the top of this ranking system, as Mexico City boasts a continent-high six teams (men’s and women’s heavyweights Club América, Cruz Azul, and Pumas), Monterrey houses four (men’s and women’s for Tigres and Monterrey), and Toluca, which only has men’s and women’s teams called Toluca but is the reigning Concacaf men’s champion after defeating Tigres on May 30.
With Miami to the south and Atlanta to the north, it was always unlikely that Orlando was going to be selected as a host city, but based on performance alone, our city is among the top soccer cities on the continent this year. And this is even with Orlando City having a down year during league play in 2026 and the Pride only recently putting together some decent results.
Last year, through 15 games Orlando City was nearly one full point better, averaging 1.80 points per game compared to this year’s 0.93, and the 2025 Pride were two-thirds of a point better than this year’s team through their first 12 games, averaging 2.08 points per game last year compared to 1.42 in 2026.
That was then and this is now, and neither season ended the way Orlando City or the Pride wanted in 2025, so hopefully the slower starts portend something better for this year’s teams. There is still a U.S. Open Cup, Leagues Cup, and MLS playoff spot for Orlando City to play for when its season resumes, and the Pride can solidify, or preferably, improve their playoff spot as well.
As we get closer to the end of 2026 I will update this chart to see where Orlando finishes in the full-year rankings, but for now we once again have unimpeachable evidence that shows that Orlando is the soccer capital of the southeast. We have all known this for years and years, but it is important to remind the people of Atlanta and Miami about it from time to time.
This was that time.
Vamos Orlando!
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