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Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run

An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.

Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:

This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):

This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.

There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):

I had three major takeaways from this data:

  1. Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
  2. Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
  3. The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.

Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.

I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.

Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.

PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.

The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.

Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.

Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.

I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.

Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.

The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.

Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/18/25

Justin Ellis named U-19 MLS NEXT MVP, Orlando Pride announce historic apparel collection, landing spots for USMNT players, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City B

Happy Friday! It’s been a long week, but the weekend is nearly upon us. My parents are in town on vacation, so I’m looking forward to having an excuse to go out to brunch. It should be a nice few days with plenty of soccer to keep us all entertained. Let’s get to the links!

Justin Ellis Named U-19 MLS NEXT MVP

Orlando City B forward Justin Ellis was named MLS NEXT MVP for the U-19 age group after a stellar season that included 18 goals for the Lions. The 18-year-old was the top scorer of this year’s Generation Adidas Cup to help his team lift the trophy and helped the team reach the semifinals of the MLS NEXT Cup. In MLS NEXT Pro action, Ellis has recorded seven goals and three assists in 11 appearances for OCB. It’s quite the accolade for the forward and hopefully he can continue to make strides in his development to make an impact with the first team.

Orlando Pride Announce Full-Team Apparel Collection

The Orlando Pride became the first NWSL club to offer a merchandise line featuring every player on the roster after announcing a new apparel collection. The Pride, in collaboration with apparel brand 500 Level, will offer over 500 player-specific items to form the largest player collection across the major U.S. sports leagues. As someone who is usually a fan of the unsung heroes when it comes to sports, I think it’s pretty great that fans are now able to get apparel representing their favorite Pride player no matter who that is.

Ideal Transfer Landing Spots for USMNT Players

ESPN took a stab at identifying the best fits for United States Men’s National Team players with transfer buzz following the Concacaf Gold Cup. Orlando City right back Alex Freeman was listed but could need a bit more time solidifying his game with the Lions before big clubs come knocking. Midfielder Diego Luna had a strong tournament with the U.S. this summer and could fit in well with Celta Vigo’s rebuilding plans. As for other intriguing things to keep an eye on, a move to MLS could give Giovanni Reyna the playing time he desperately needs; Ricardo Pepi may be best off staying at PSV Eindhoven; and Marseille may be just what the doctor ordered for Tim Weah.

England Comes Back to Reach Euro Semifinals

England secured its spot in the Women’s European Championship semifinals in dramatic fashion, advancing on penalties against Sweden after a 2-2 draw. A pair of goals in the first half by Sweden had the Scandinavian nation on top for most of the match, but Lucy Bronze scored in the 79th minute, before 19-year-old substitute Michelle Agyemang scored the equalizer in the 81st. The penalty shootout included nine misses, but the defending champs prevailed in the end. It’s a brutal way for Peter Gerhardsson’s tenure as Sweden’s head coach to come to a close. England will face Italy in the semifinals on Tuesday.

Free Kicks


That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Orlando City vs. New York City FC: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 2-1 loss to NYCFC?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City gave up two late goals to drop all three points in a 2-1 home loss against New York City FC. The Lions had plenty of chances to put the game away, but once again were unable to score multiple goals at home. Despite having the better of the match for the first 87 minutes, this team continues to allow teams to stick around and steal points late. Let’s take a look at the individual performances in this extremely disappointing match.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 6 — I feel bad for Gallese. He made two saves, including his 500th save as Orlando City’s keeper, but gave up two goals that were very difficult to stop. The first was the own goal at point blank range just seconds after his outstanding save against former Lion Andres Perea. There was nothing he could have done on that. The second was a two-on-one attack in stoppage time, when he came out to cut down the angle, but it was a lost cause. As for the first part of the match, it was slow. He didn’t even make his first save until the 53rd minute. Gallese touched the ball 25 times, completing 56.3% of his 16 passes, though he did not connect on any of his seven long balls. Defensively, he made one tackle, and two clearances.

D, David Brekalo, 7 — With the return of Jansson, Brekalo resumed his left back duties. He was active in the attack early. He sent a header on target off of a corner in 30th minute but didn’t put enough on it. He headed another corner in 35th minute, but it was too high and off target. The third time was the charm though, as he once again headed a corner kick. This time, he sent the ball to Jansson for the goal to earn an assist. Brekalo had 55 touches, completing 91.3% of his 46 passes, including one key pass and two of his four long balls. Offensively, he had one shot on target. Defensively, he had one tackle, one clearance, and two interceptions. He wasn’t at fault for either of NYCFC’s goals.

D, Robin Jansson, 7.5 (MotM) — Jansson scored his first goal of the season and perhaps his best goal for the Lions. Brekalo headed the corner kick from Ojeda over to Jansson, who chested it down and then left-footed it into the back of the net. It was a good performance from the captain, but the goal is what put him over the top for Man of the Match. Jansson had 42 touches, completing 88.2% of his 34 passes and two of his five long balls. Offensively, he had the one shot on target for the goal. Defensively he had two clearances, one interception, one blocked shot, and he suffered one foul. Most importantly, he wasn’t culpable on either of NYCFC’s goals either.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 5.5 — Until the final minutes of the match, Schlegel wasn’t doing too badly. He had 49 touches, completing 87.5% of his 40 passes, and one of his five long balls. Offensively, he had two shots, with one on target, though he failed to score for Orlando City. Defensively he had one tackle, two clearances, one blocked shot, and a foul. While he didn’t have a goal contribution for the Lions he did kick the ball off of Kyle Smith and into the net to give NYCFC the equalizer in the 87th minute. Smith is credited with the own goal, but Schlegel gets the own assist.

D, Alex Freeman, 7 — Freeman was dangerous in this match. His speed, skill, and size present problems for defenses and that was the case again in this match. Even though he didn’t get a goal contribution, he did create opportunities for both himself and his teammates. His efforts created four first-half corner kicks. He also stole the ball in the 58th minute, made a run up the field — including a give-and-go with Marco Pasalic — and got into the box to receive the ball back after continuing his run, but hhe sent his shot high. Freeman had 64 touches, completing 80.6% of his 36 passes, two crosses, and one of his three long balls. Offensively, he had four shots, with one on target, and two dribbles. Defensively, he logged three tackles, three clearances, three interceptions, and two fouls committed.

MF, Ivan Angulo, 6 — Angulo was better in this match. He was not great, as he still failed to earn a goal contribution, but neither was he the place where the attack went to die. He provided pressure on the defense and almost took the ball away from the keeper early on. Angulo had 31 touches, completing 82.6% of his 23 passes, and made three key passes. Offensively, he had one off-target shot, suffered two fouls, and was only dispossessed once. Defensively, he recorded two interceptions. His grade comes as much from what he didn’t do — good and bad — as for what he did do. He came off for Kyle Smith in the 74th minute.

MF, Cesar Araujo, 6 — This was a typical night for Araujo. He did mostly well in the defensive midfield, sniffing out attacks and winning the ball back. The one time he couldn’t, he committed a professional foul in the 61st minute that earned him a yellow card after Jansson was caught upfield. Araujo had 60 touches, completing 89.6% of his 48 passes, including two key passes and two of his five long balls. Offensively, he had one shot that was off target. Defensively, he logged one clearance, two interceptions, and one blocked shot. He committed the aforementioned foul, though he also suffered three fouls. Like almost everyone else, he was caught up the field on NYCFC’s second goal, and there wasn’t anything he could have done.

MF, Eduard Atuesta, 6 —  Atuesta was active, as usual, in this match. Like some of his teammates, he was generally pretty good, but it was his ball into the box that was intercepted and sprung NYCFC’s counterattack on the second goal. Atuesta had a team-high 82 touches, completing 86.6% of his 67 passes, including five key passes, three crosses, and five of his 10 long balls. Offensively, he attempted two shots with neither on target, one dribble, and two fouls committed. Defensively, he logged one tackle, and suffered two fouls.

MF, Marco Pasalic, 6.5 — Much like Martin Ojeda, Pasalic was not as clinical as he usually is. He placed an excellent through ball to Luis Muriel in the 20th minute, but Muriel’s shot was stopped. He had several shots that were blocked out for corner kicks. Pasalic had 40 touches, completing 90.5% of his 21 passes, including three key passes, one cross, and one of his two long balls. Offensively, he had a team-high six shots with one on target, completed two dribbles, and suffered one foul. Defensively, he notched one interception. He came off in the 74th minute for Dagur Dan Thorhallsson.

F, Martin Ojeda, 6.5 — It was an “almost” night for Ojeda. He earned a secondary assist on Jansson’s goal after delivering the corner kick to Brekalo to bring his season total to 10 assists and his goal contribution streak to eight matches. However, he should have been more clinical. Case in point: he missed a golden opportunity in the 47th minute on an NYCFC turnover with only the keeper to beat, but he sent the shot wide left. All of his shots were either off target or right at Matt Freese. Ojeda had 45 touches, completing 81.5% of his 27 passes, including four crosses and one of his two long balls. Offensively, he fired five shots with only one on target, completed one dribble, and committed one foul. Defensively, he had one interception, and suffered one foul. Ojeda came off in the 84th minute for Nico Rodriguez.

F, Luis Muriel, 5.5 — It was another uninspiring match from Muriel. The forward certainly put in the effort early on, pressing the defense and Matt Freese, but he was never able to make it pay off. He had a golden opportunity in the 20th minute, but he couldn’t beat the keeper. Muriel finished with just 19 touches, completing 90% of his 10 passes, including one key pass, one long ball, and two crosses. Offensively, he attempted two shots, which were both on target, but he could not find the back of the net. He committed one foul and drew none. Muriel came off in the 64th minute for Ramiro Enrique.

Substitutes

F, Ramiro Enrique (64’), 5.5 — Enrique came on in the 64th minute for Muriel, touching the ball seven times and completing 40% of his five passes. He took one shot from a great spot that was not on target, and won three aerial balls. Despite being on the pitch for over 30 minutes, he didn’t do much.

MF, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson (74’), 5 — Thorhallsson came on in the 74th minute for Pasalic as the Lions looked to hang onto their 1-0 lead. Unfortunately, he was unable to help in that regard. He finished with 13 touches, completing all of his nine passes, including one key pass. Defensively, he logged one interception and one clearance, but sadly he was unable to make the most important tackle on the night. He was the last man with a chance to stop the breakaway on NYCFC’s second goal, but he swung and missed on his desperate attempt to make the tackle.

MF, Kyle Smith (74’), 5 — Smith came on for Angulo in the 74th minute in a defensive change. Sadly he was in the wrong place at the wrong time as he and Schlegel were both trying to clear the ball away from goal when Schlegel kicked it off of Smith for NYCFC’s equalizer. Smith was credited with the own goal, although he didn’t know much about it. He touched the ball 12 times, completing all of his eight passes, including one cross. Defensively, he added a clearance.

MF, Nico Rodriguez (84’), N/A — Rodriguez was a late replacement for Ojeda as the Lions looked to see out the game. He earned a foul less than a minute after entering the match to set up a free kick for Orlando, though it amounted to nothing. He touched the ball 15 times, completing 75% of his eight passes, and made one key pass. Offensively, he had one dribble and suffered two fouls. His biggest contribution was a negative one late in the game, as he played a corner kick so quickly that most of his teammates weren’t ready. Thorhallsson was still walking back into his deep defensive position and the two center backs hadn’t even arrived in the box yet. So when Rodriguez played the corner quickly short to Atuesta, it threw off the entire team and allowed NYCFC to break with numbers for the winner.


That’s how I saw the individual performances in Orlando City’s 2-1 loss to NYCFC. Let us know how you saw the game in the comments below and don’t forget to vote on your Man of the Match.

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Orlando City vs. New York City FC: Five Takeaways

Here’s what we learned from Orlando City’s 2-1 loss against NYCFC.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

I have never actually been punched in the gut, but I am sure that it does not feel much worse than what it felt like to watch Orlando City capitulate once again in the final minutes of a game, going from a 1-0 lead to a 2-1 defeat in the final minutes of Wednesday’ night’s game. The Lions had plenty of chances to salt the game away in the first 85 minutes but they could not tally more than one goal, and then the combination of bad luck on one play and bad execution on a play shortly thereafter gave New York City FC a smash-and-grab win.

Here are my five takeaways from another disappointing match at home.

Wrong Place, Wrong Time

Own goals are brutal whenever they happen, but they are especially tough when they follow an incredible save by the goalkeeper but still end up in the back of the net. Pedro Gallese made a save at full stretch, denying former Lion Andrés Perea from scoring a late equalizer with a header, but then Rodrigo Schlegel tried to clear the rebound from danger but hit his clearance right off of Kyle Smith and into the Orlando City net. Schlegel did well to react quickly after Gallese made a fantastic save, but he did not have a chance to look around before trying to bomb the ball out of the zone and just suffered an incredible stroke of bad luck by hitting Smith, who was also going for a clearance, and watching the ball carom right into the net. At that moment, it felt like karma for all the missed shots by the Orlando City offense and that it would be another dropped two points from a winning position, but sadly it would become three dropped points just moments later.

For the Love Of Everything That Is Good, Please Ban Short Corners

I understand that teams want to have a lot of different looks that they could go to on set plays, but I would like the Lions to remove short corners from their bag, as they say, and not go with the short corner routine again. Ever. Kind of like how the guys in the movie Armageddon didn’t want to pay taxes again. Ever. Nico Rodriguez played a quick ball to Eduard Atuesta, trying to catch NYCFC off guard, but the team that was really caught off guard was Orlando City, as Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, the player assigned to be the last man back on defense during a corner kick, had his back to the ball and did not even know the play had started. Many of the other Lions were also caught flat footed while Atuesta tried to find a teammate to pass the ball to. Atuesta eventually played a poor ball into the middle — one of his few poor passes on the night — and NYCFC was able to break out on the counter with only Thórhallsson to beat. The Icelandic midfielder sprinted back at full speed, but because the play had started to so quickly, he was not deep enough to be in a position to slow down the counterattack. Alonso Martínez was able to get by him and finish the breakaway and, for all intents and purposes, the game.

Wasteful Offense

Orlando City took 25 shots on Wednesday night but was only able to put seven shots on goal. Many of the shots the Lions did put on goal did not really trouble goalkeeper Matt Freese. There were opportunities galore for the Lions to get multiple goals, with all three of the Designated Players failing to score on excellent opportunities, César Araújo hitting a free kick straight into a wall from a dangerous location, Alex Freeman not being able to get his feet sorted out to really uncork a threatening shot, and Ramiro Enrique putting his one shot wide of the goal from about nine yards out on the right side. The shots that were on goal were not well hit, and the balls that were well struck went wide, over, or right into a defender — in particular the last one with the Pigeons blocking nine shots on the night. The offense was simply not good enough, again, and the Lions paid for not being able to put multiple goals in the net.

The Only Offense Came From The Defense

Orlando City’s offensive players could not find their form but almost got bailed out by an unlikely source, as the one goal the team scored came from from a header by David Brekalo off of a Martín Ojeda corner that went right to Robin Jansson. The Beefy Swede looked like he had been playing striker for years by using his shoulder to knock the ball down and then volleying it low, hard, and into the corner — a place where all of the other Orlando City players were apparently unable to shoot any of their shots. This goal exemplified why many analysts, yours truly included, think that all corner kicks should be played directly into the box. Brekalo and Jansson got themselves into good positions and made a play, and when a play is made from close range, good things often happen, and purple smoke goes off and the crowd goes wild.

Tired Legs And a Barren Bench Are a Bad Combination

Óscar Pareja started eight players who had started the previous game against CF Montréal four days prior. When he went to the bench, he brought on players who had started that game (Enrique) or who had also come in off the bench in that game (Rodriguez, Smith, and Thórhallsson). Orlando City seemed the more dangerous team for most of the game, but it was not a particularly well-played game, with two teams that looked like they had just played days before and neither team sharp offensively. The Lions created more opportunities but were not sharp, and NYCFC rarely threatened for most of the game.

Pareja went with his trusted group of substitutes to try to protect a 1-0 lead, once again deciding to only use four of his five possible changes (this was the fifth straight game in which he did not use all of his allowed substitutions), and the lack of fresh MLS-quality legs was apparent in the final minutes, especially after the team fell behind. Rodriguez looked lively, but Enrique, Smith, and Thórhallsson contributed little, and the players who had been on the field all game had little left in the tank. Orlando City needs Joran Gerbet and Duncan McGuire to return from injury and needs to make use of the transfer window that opens next week, because the Lions cannot keep running out the same players over and over and expect the results to be different.


Those are my takeaways from Orlando City’s disappointing 2-1 defeat against NYCFC. The Lions had a deserved lead but could not find what would likely have been a back-breaking second goal and paid for it in the end. The team will need to shake this off quickly because the Lions travel to New England on Saturday. But after that performance against NYCFC, maybe it is better that they will be on the road for their next game.

Let us know your thoughts about the NYCFC match in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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