Orlando City

Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run

An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.

Published

2 years ago

September 26, 2024

S. Andrew DeSalvo

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.

Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:

This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):

This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.

There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):

I had three major takeaways from this data:

Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.

Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.

I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.

Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.

PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.

The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.

Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.

Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.

I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.

Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.

The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.

Orlando City

Why Three Could Be Greater Than Four In Orlando City’s Back Line

An analysis of MLS teams using three, four, and five-man back lines and whether it would benefit Orlando City to use a three-man grouping going forwards.

Published

8 minutes ago

April 16, 2026

S. Andrew DeSalvo

Orlando City starting lineup vs New York Red Bulls

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City rolled out a three-man back line during last Sunday night’s game against Columbus, and while that formation alone is not responsible for the Lions leading for most of the game and getting their first point of the season on the road, it definitely played a role. During the Óscar Pareja era, Orlando City nearly always played with a four-man back line, but with a lot of roster turnover from last season and new leadership on the sideline, it could be time to give the three-man group a look, as the Lions try to climb out from the bottom of the standings and make the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season.

We will explore whether a three-man back line is worth pursuing below, but making the playoffs is definitely a five-star idea and highly recommended.

Soccer back lines, and formations in general, are fluid. Baseball is static before every play, so you can see exactly where every fielder (defender) was and evaluate offensive and defensive performances against shifts or alignments. American football is not exactly static, but it is closer to baseball than soccer, with most players being still as the play is initiated. Soccer is most similar to hockey, basketball, and lacrosse, where even though players are nominally playing set positions, those positions can constantly change throughout a play and throughout the entirety of the game.

That said, most players generally play in a specific position for much of the game, so we can look at some tracking data and make generalizations about the formations. Opta’s tracking analysts list a primary formation for each team in every game, and while it is not perfect, it is correct more often than not for the general formation used by that team in that game.

Opta’s tracking on fbref.com gives the following table for every formation used in MLS play so far this year, and I have added the associated points earned, goals scored, and goals allowed by each team while in that formation. Make sure you are taking the formation with somewhere between a grain of salt and the bottom third of the salt shaker, but this is the unedited data:

Formation	Games Used	Avg. Points Earned	Avg. Goals For	Avg. Goals Allowed
4-2-3-1	77	1.58	1.74	1.44
4-3-3	48	1.35	1.67	1.65
4-4-2	32	0.97	0.84	1.41
3-4-3	30	1.47	1.57	1.83
3-5-2	7	1.43	1.57	1.57
5-4-1	4	1.25	1.25	0.75
4-1-4-1	3	1.33	1.67	1.33
3-4-1-2	3	1.67	2.00	1.67
3-5-1-1	1	3.00	4.00	3.00
4-4-1-1	1	0.00	0.00	3.00

I think it is probably easier to just bucket the different formations into simpler sets, using the number of defenders to segment the formations:

Back Line	Games Used	Avg. Points Earned	Avg. Goals For	Avg. Goals Allowed
Three-man	41	1.51	1.66	1.81
Four-man	161	1.38	1.53	1.50
Five-man	4	1.25	1.25	0.75

Most teams in MLS, and also around the world, utilize four-player back lines. Coaches are pragmatists, and some combination between using a lineup that feels more secure (i.e. usually one with more defenders) and one that will not get ridiculed by players, pundits, fans, owners, and writers (the audacity of someone to analyze and comment on lineup choices, how dare they?) drives a hefty portion of the decision making for those making lineup decisions.

Orlando City used a three-man back line in the game against Columbus, though there were parts of the game when it looked much more like a five-man back line with Griffin Dorsey and Iván Angulo dropped all the way back on defense. The sofascore.com heatmaps for all five (Angulo, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Iago, and Dorsey) are listed below in order from left to right, and you can see where all five have a good amount of touches in the defensive third. Angulo and Dorsey played far higher than the middle three, however, which is why the formation Opta assigned to Orlando City was a back three. Imperfect, but directionally it makes sense.

Heat maps of Orlando City's defensive players against Columbus.

With the players on the current roster, a back three may well be the right lineup to use until the next transfer window. There is a not a lot of blazing speed among Orlando City’s defensive group, but most of the defenders have decent size and are good in the air, so protecting the heart of the defense with Brekalo, Jansson, and Iago as the starters and Adrián Marín and Tahir Reid-Brown as backups gives the team some decent depth without sacrificing size. Alas, this comes one year too late for former Lion Thomas Williams, who probably would have been better suited to a back three than a back four.

In addition to having a good set of center back candidates, Angulo, Dorsey, Zakaria Taifi, and Marín are all good wingback options as well, and players who have the skills and pace to get up into the attack while also recovering back to help out the defensive line.

Orlando City’s current personnel fits the three-man back line well, and considering most teams in MLS are using four-man back lines, that decision also bodes well considering how three-man back lines have done this season when playing against four- or five-man back lines. Three-man back lines have been used against four- or five-man back lines 31 times thus far this season, and those teams are earning 1.58 points per match during those games. That amount of points per match would have been in the top half of MLS last season (13th), right above the actual 2025 Orlando City team, which finished on 1.56 points per match.

Orlando City hosts Houston this weekend, and the Dynamo have primarily used a four-man back line (featuring former Lion Antonio Carlos) thus far this season. On Saturday night we will see if the three-man back line was just for the Columbus game or if it is something that the Lions will trot out again in hopes of continuing the league-wide trend of teams finding success when playing three in the back against teams playing four in the back.

I do not really care whether it is three or four in the back, as long as that by the end of the game Orlando City has done better than Houston at putting more in the back…of the opposition’s net.

Vamos Orlando!

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Houston Dynamo: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to earn all three points against the Dynamo this weekend?

Published

2 hours ago

April 16, 2026

David Rohe

Image of Eduard Atuesta looking for a teammate to pass to.

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City returns home to Inter&Co Stadium to take on the Houston Dynamo on Saturday. The Lions are coming off a 1-1 draw against the Columbus Crew on Sunday, and a 1-0 road win against FC Naples in the U.S. Open Cup on Wednesday in a busy week. Hopefully, Orlando City can keep the good time rolling with another positive result this weekend. What must the Lions do to earn all three points against Houston Saturday night?

The Midfield (Part 1)

Houston has a pretty good midfield with Hector Herrera, Mateusz Bogusz, and Lawrence Ennali. Ennali has two of the Dynamo’s 10 goals this season. Controlling these players and thus controlling possession in the middle of the pitch will make a difference in how the match plays out. Braian Ojeda and Eduard Atuesta are not midfield destroyers and that has hurt Orlando City this season. If at all possible, the Lions need to be more physical in the defensive midfield to limit Houston’s ability to build the attack.

More on Herrera: In his first stint with the Dynamo he was a Designated Player and considered one of the best midfielders in the league. He helped lead Houston to a U.S. Open Cup title in 2024. Despite having only played limited minutes this season, he already has two assists and will present problems in the midfield.

The Midfield (Part Deux)

Traffic flows both ways on a soccer pitch, and while Orlando City hasn’t been good about taking on and stopping attacks in the defensive midfield, the players have also struggled to break through the opposition’s lines. This has been in large part due to very poor passing, and I’m not certain how to fix “stop passing the ball to the opponent,” but that is what the team will need to do.

Having Robin Jansson as the safety outlet for the others on the back line, and by extension the midfield, helps, as does his ability to send accurate long balls down the field. It would also be good if the rest of the players could connect on their passes. Not only will it allow Orlando City to move the ball down the pitch and connect the defense to the attack, but it will limit the amount of time Houston is on the ball. Passing shouldn’t be a key I write about, but here we are.

Finish Them

Orlando City struck first against the Columbus Crew and then wasted every other chance — that is, while there were chances still being created. It was like a switch was turned off. “Hey, we got a goal. Let’s go back to how we were playing when we weren’t scoring goals,” is how I think it went. That cannot happen against Houston — or any team for that matter. I’m not even talking about how sometimes a team will get more defensive with a lead, or the other team makes adjustments. There was some sort of mentality switch, and it needs to be fixed.

If Orlando City is able to score first, then someone needs to get a second goal. The Lions have only scored two goals in a match twice this season. The first was against Inter Miami, and we know what happened in that one. The other time was against CF Montreal — Orlando City’s only win so far. Houston isn’t as good as Miami but is probably better than Montreal. My point is the Lions most likely need multiple goals to win this match, and it starts with finishing.

That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/16/26

Orlando City wins against FC Naples, U.S. Open Cup results, USWNT takeaways following loss, and more.

Published

6 hours ago

April 16, 2026

Marcus Mitchell

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

This Thursday might feel a little more like a Friday thanks to Orlando City winning a game last night. Sure, it was more like the Lions failed to complete an implosion, but we’ll take what we can get at this point. Another MLS match is on the horizon this weekend, so if you crafted any lucky charms, make sure to keep them out for a few more days. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando City Wins U.S. Open Cup Match

It wasn’t the prettiest of wins, but Orlando City went on the road and beat FC Naples 1-0 in the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup to advance to the round of 16. The Lions opted for a fairly young roster to start and managed to take the lead in the first half. The defense started to fall apart as the match wore on, but it managed to hold on by a matter of inches against the USL League One side for its first clean sheet of the year. Orlando is the last Floridian team standing in the tournament and its next match will be on the road against the New England Revolution on either April 28 or 29.

MLS Mostly Avoids Cupsets in Round of 32

There weren’t too many shocking results in the round of 32 of this year’s U.S. Open Cup, with the MLS clubs taking care of business for the most part. Charlotte FC crushed the Charlotte Independence 6-0, the Columbus Crew shut out the Richmond Kickers in a 3-0 win, and the New York Red Bulls beat the Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3-1. St. Louis City and the Houston Dynamo also cruised to comfortable wins. D.C. United was defeated though, losing the penalty shootout to One Knoxville SC after a thrilling game. Last year’s tournament didn’t include any teams from outside MLS in the quarterfinals. The Colorado Springs Switchbacks and Louisville City also managed to take down their MLS opponents earlier this week, so we’ll see if they can keep making noise later this month.

Takeaways From USWNT Loss to Japan

The United States Women’s National Team lost 1-0 to Japan in the second of three friendlies between the two this month, snapping its 10-game win streak. Head Coach Emma Hayes went with a young roster, with 20-year-old midfielder Claire Hutton becoming the team’s youngest captain since 2001. The team’s inexperience showed at times, particularly when it came to struggling to produce chances despite plenty of possession, but these were valuable minutes against one of the top teams in the world. We’ll see how the team responds on Friday when the two play again in Denver.

UEFA Champions League Semifinals Set

Only four teams remain in the UEFA Champions League after an exciting series of quarterfinals. Bayern Munich advanced after beating Real Madrid 4-3 in a rollercoaster of a match that included five goals in the first half. Arda Guler had a brace within the first 30 minutes, but Bayern kept things close and then scored two late goals after Eduardo Camavinga was shown a red card in the 86th minute. The match between Arsenal and Sporting was a quieter affair, with Arsenal advancing on aggregate after a scoreless draw.

The semifinals don’t feature any teams from the same country and should be a fun round of matches. Atletico Madrid will square off against Arsenal, while Bayern will play against Paris Saint-Germain.

Free Kicks

LAFC midfielder Jude Terry won MLS Goal of the Matchday for his curled shot from outside of the box against the Portland Timbers. It was the 17-year-old’s first goal in MLS and a pretty impressive way for him to open his account.
In case you missed it, LAFC drew 1-1 against Cruz Azul to reach the Concacaf Champions Cup semifinals. Nashville SC also advanced, beating Club America 1-0 at the Azteca in a huge win.
You’ll need to get past the paywall for the full details, but the NWSL is reportedly working on a league-wide exposure agreement policy that would force players to cover up logos of non-sponsored brands.
New Zealand qualified for the 2027 Women’s World Cup after winning 1-0 against Papua New Guinea.
French forward Hugo Ekitike will miss the World Cup due to a leg injury sustained during Liverpool’s Champions League match against Paris Saint-Germain.