Orlando City
Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run
An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.
Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.
Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:

This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):

This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.
There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):

I had three major takeaways from this data:
- Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
- Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
- The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.
Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.
I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.
Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.
PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.
The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.
Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.
Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.
I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.
Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.
The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.
Orlando City
Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. New York City FC
Get up to speed on the Pigeons ahead of Saturday’s game, courtesy of someone who knows them best.
Happy Friday, everyone. Orlando City got a week of rest after taking care of business against D.C. United at home, and it returns to the purple palace Saturday night to face a New York City FC team with its back against the wall in the race for a playoff place.
A showdown with the Pigeons means I caught up with Matthew Mangam of New York Soccer Journal. As always, he was helpful in getting us up to speed on NYCFC, and we appreciate his help. I also answered some of his questions about Orlando City, so make sure you check them out over at their place!
Talk me through NYCFC’s summer transfer business. Who’s out, who’s in to replace them, and how have they performed?
Matthew Mangam: NYCFC’s summer business wasn’t anything groundbreaking. The club brought in striker Luighi on loan from SE Palmeiras and got back midfielder/defender James Sands, whose loan with St. Pauli ended.
Luighi started off well, bagging four goals in his first seven league appearances. But since then, the 20-year-old is on a five-game drought. To his credit, Luighi started only two of his last five games. As for Sands, this is his third stint at NYCFC, so the versatile 26-year-old was welcomed back with open arms.
The biggest acquisition this summer, though, was Bénie Traoré. The winger joined the club as a Designated Player from FC Basel in Switzerland, but it hasn’t gone well. In 15 league appearances, Traoré has one goal — a penalty kick that hit off the post and went in — and no assists.
The club’s last move that didn’t happen in the summer surprised everyone: adding free agent Matt Miazga. The veteran defender hasn’t made his debut yet, and I’m honestly not sure when he will.
New York City has been a wildly different team since the league restarted after the World Cup. What’s happened to cause the change in form?
MM: I honestly don’t know where to start with this one. There’s so much I could say, but if I did then I’d be here all day. I’ll narrow it down to this: NYCFC can’t play a complete 90 minutes.
NYCFC has conceded six goals in stoppage time this season, is 0-4-12 after falling behind 16 times, and is 4-5-6 at home. So, they can’t hang onto leads — they’ve lost seven points after the 75th minute — they have no come-from-behind wins, and they’re poor at home.
There are other smaller factors, like injuries, individual mistakes from usually solid players (Matt Freese and Sands), and players struggling, but, as I said, it’s a lot.
The playoffs are still in reach, as NYCFC is just two points out of eighth. What needs to happen in order to get above the line and stay there?
MM: Simply put, NYCFC needs to win all four remaining games, or, at the very least, go 3-1-0. Teams around them, like Toronto, Columbus, and Cincinnati, are picking up wins and building separation, so NYCFC is in a do-or-die situation.
Getting Alonso Martínez back and starting again is huge, but you can’t expect him to return from a brutal injury and save the team immediately; it’s not fair. Traoré has to step up and show why the club paid DP money for him — one lone goal that, in my opinion, fortunately went in, and no goals from open play is extremely concerning.
Also, Nico Fernández Mercau hasn’t scored in five matches. He’s getting double- and triple-marked because teams are now well aware of how talented the Argentine is, but he has to find a way back on the scoresheet in this stretch. NYCFC needs him to. So, so badly.
Will any players be unavailable due to injury, suspension, etc.? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?
MM: The only players out are the ones with long-term injuries: Keaton Parks, Kai Trewin, Maxi Moralez, Arnau Farnós, and Drew Baiera.
Given that NYCFC needs to win or the season is practically over, I expect Head Coach Pascal Jansen to leave it all out there with his best possible lineup:
Matt Freese; Kevin O’Toole, James Sands, Thiago Martins, Tayvon Gray; Andres Perea, Aiden O’Neill; Hannes Wolf, Nico Fernández Mercau, Agustin Ojeda; Alonso Martínez.
I think Nico Fernández Mercau and Alonso Martínez score, but it won’t be enough, as Antoine Griezmann gets a brace and both teams settle for a 2-2 draw.
Thank you to Matt for his excellent refresher on NYCFC. Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links
Lion Links: 10/23/26
Orlando City prepares for New York City FC, Antoine Griezmann’s impact in Orlando, U.S. will host FIFA Women’s Club World Cup, and more.
Happy Friday, Mane Landers! It’s been a pretty nice week for me, as I was able to watch all of Slow Horses and finish reading Bad Words by Rioghnach Robinson, both of which were brilliant. Attention now turns to this weekend’s soccer, with both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride playing at home over the next couple of days. Let’s get to the links!
Orlando City Prepares for New York City FC
The Lions host New York City FC on Saturday in one of the marquee matchups in MLS as the regular season nears its conclusion. Plenty has changed since Orlando’s 5-0 loss to NYCFC on March 7. The Lions have clawed their way up the table while the Pigeons have only won once in their past 13 league games. NYCFC enters this match after a 1-1 draw with LAFC that included an equalizer by former Lion Andres Perea to give the team a valuable point amid the playoff race. Nicolas Fernandez Mercau, Luighi, and Benie Traore are all NYCFC players the Lions will need to keep in check, or else it could end up being another high-scoring affair in the City Beautiful.
Antoine Griezmann’s Impact on Orlando’s Offense
Orlando’s wait for Antoine Griezmann to join in the summer has proven to be well worth it, as he’s transformed Orlando’s attack into a force to be reckoned with just as the playoffs near. Although Griezmann wasn’t able to enjoy a fairytale ending with Atletico Madrid by lifting the Copa del Rey or Champions League trophies this year, he’s breathed life into an Orlando side that struggled mightily prior to his arrival. The 35-year-old has recorded 12 goals and seven assists in just 14 appearances this season. Not only has he excelled when it comes to getting the ball in the net, but he’s done well in terms of defensive metrics and intangibles as well.
U.S. Will Host Women’s Club World Cup
The inaugural FIFA Women’s Club World Cup will be held in the U.S. in January of 2028 with the host cities still to be determined. There will be 19 clubs taking part, with Gotham, Arsenal, Barcelona, and Club America having already qualified along with three other teams so far. This tournament is sandwiched between the 2027 Women’s World Cup in Brazil and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, so there’s plenty of exciting women’s soccer to look forward to in the coming years.
U.S. U-17 Women’s National Team Wins at World Cup
The United States U-17 Women’s National Team won 6-1 against Kenya in the group stage of the FIA U-17 Women’s World Cup in Morocco, clinching a spot in the round of 16. Maggie DiMaria scored four goals to bring her total to 10 across just two games. The U.S. will play its final group game on Sunday against China PR, which also won both of its games against Kenya and Samoa to secure a spot in the knockout stage. The winner of this group will get to avoid a match with Spain in the round of 16, so there’s still plenty to play for before the next round gets underway.
Free Kicks
- The first leg of the Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal between the United States Men’s National Team and Haiti has been moved from Kingston to Miami. Haiti has had to play games outside of the country due to unrest and submitted a request to Concacaf to play in the country of its opponent.
- American center back Naomi Girma is now dealing with a calf injury that may sideline her for a few weeks according to Chelsea Head Coach Sonia Bompastor. She missed out on the team’s recent friendlies against Spain and may be absent for the Concacaf W Championship quarterfinal against El Salvador next month too.
- The United States Women’s Cerebral Palsy National Team beat Ireland 15-0 to advance to the IFCPF Women’s World Cup final, which takes place today against Australia. Annie Wickett scored five goals with four other players scoring braces.
- The San Diego Wave signed defender Mimi Van Zanten to a contract extension through the 2029 season. She’s made 27 appearances for San Diego during her rookie season, helping the club keep pace in the NWSL Shield race.
- After being stretchered off the field due to a head injury in the U.S. Open Cup final, St. Louis City goalkeeper Roman Burki is alert and in good spirits, according to the club.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Orlando’s October Outburst Originated Months Ago
Orlando City’s October offensive surge may look like a recent development, but the Lions have been scoring at an impressive rate for months.
We do not watch nearly enough Sesame Street in my house, but ever since the summer we say that A is for Antoine when the show discusses the alphabet. Sadly, this replaced A is for Andrew, which is my name, because Antoine Griezmann is more popular than me in my house. I cannot say that I am surprised, but I can say that it hurts just a little bit. More than a little bit.
For the past few years, O has been for Ojeda, as in Martín Ojeda, the man who is now Orlando City’s all-time leading goal scorer. This October, however, O is for offense, as the Lions have scored 10 goals during their three October matches, and that tally leads all of MLS this month. Orlando City’s offense has actually been on point for several months now, as you can see from the chart below (MLS games only):
| Month | Goals Scored | Games Played | Goals per Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| February | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
| March | 4 | 4 | 1.0 |
| April | 7 | 5 | 1.4 |
| May | 11 | 5 | 2.2 |
| July* | 5 | 2 | 2.5 |
| August | 9 | 5 | 1.8 |
| September | 11 | 5 | 2.2 |
| October | 10 | 3 | 3.3 |
| Total | 58 | 30 | 1.9 |
- *There were no games in June due to the FIFA Men’s World Cup
Griezmann arrived for the July games, but even before that, the offense had started to heat up in May. Although May 1 is an arbitrary date, if we use it as a benchmark it allows us to capture two-thirds of Orlando City’s season, as the first 10 games happened before May and the team has now played 30 in total. Since May, the Lions rank fourth in MLS in goals scored with 46, sitting behind only Miami (54), Philadelphia (52), and St. Louis (47).
In a matter of perfect symmetry, the Lions also rank fourth in goals allowed, and by rank fourth I most certainly do not mean they are among the best defensive teams in the league. Orlando City has allowed 41 goals in the last 20 games, which is an average of more than two goals allowed per game but is also fewer than the 46 the team has scored. I know you already did the math in your head, but 46 – 41 = 5, and that +5 goal differential since May puts the Lions at eighth overall in MLS.
Perhaps we are now in the Inception timeline, because in yet another matter of symmetry Orlando City has also earned the eighth-most points (34) since May 1. This is yet another reminder of how poor of a start the club had this season, with seven losses in those first 10 games.
Since then, however, the 2026 team has performed like the teams of the past few years, but even with a top 10 performance for two-thirds of the season, it has not been able to climb above seventh in the Eastern Conference. This is because four of the five best teams since May are in the same conference, and the ninth and 10th hottest teams, right behind Orlando City, are also in the East. For those of you counting, hopefully in a voice like The Count’s (“Ah, ah,ah!”), that makes seven of the top 10 Eastern teams, so it is no wonder that the Lions are still in a precarious playoff position.
Saturday’s game against New York City FC is, on paper, the easiest of the remaining four games, but then again, the Pigeons did dirty pigeon things all over the Lions in the first matchup, winning that game 5-0. A repeat performance would wipe away the +5 goal differential Orlando has since May, but in addition to the fact that this game will be played on an actual soccer field, there is another pretty major difference between the early season Lions and the current Lions: Griezmann.
The French superstar is up to 12 goals scored and six primary assists (to go with one secondary assist in only 14 MLS games, which is wild), and he and Ojeda make up one of only seven tandems in the league in which both players have at least 12 goals each (Ojeda has 15). Only three tandems have at least 13 goals each (Miami’s Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez, Cincinnati’s Kévin Denkey and Evander, and Nashville’s Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar), and with another goal from Griezmann, the two Lions would become the second pair in club history to each score at least 13 goals in a season, joining Facundo Torres and Duncan McGuire in 2023.
Marco Pašalić scored in the most recent game, and both Iván Angulo and Justin Ellis have recorded double-digit goal contributions, so let’s hope the team’s recent offensive onslaught continues, because with all the injuries on the back line and some difficult opponents coming up on the schedule, the Lions will likely need to put up multiple goals if they are going to get results and qualify for the playoffs for the seventh consecutive season.
And considering how poor the start to the season was, if they can orchestrate that it would be outstanding. Let’s gooooooooo.
Vamos Orlando!
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