Connect with us

Orlando City

Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run

An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.

Published

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.

Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:

This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):

This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.

There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):

I had three major takeaways from this data:

  1. Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
  2. Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
  3. The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.

Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.

I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.

Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.

PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.

The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.

Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.

Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.

I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.

Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.

The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.

Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/2/25

Orlando Pride players on International duty, NWSL power rankings, USWNT friendlies, and more.

Published

on

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. There is plenty of Orlando Pride news today, which is good considering we’re heading into an international break. That means we can look forward to some women’s international matches in addition to Orlando City’s next bout against the Philadelphia Union. Before we jump into today’s news, please join us in wishing Orlando City midfielder Cesar Araujo a happy 24th birthday. Let’s get to the links.

International Duty, Pride Edition

Four players from the Orlando Pride have been called up for international duty. Anna Moorhouse (England), Angelina (Brazil), Emily Sams (U.S.), and Zara Chavoshi (U.S. U-23 training camp) will all head to their respective national teams. Moorhouse’s England will compete in the UEFA Women’s Nations League, while Angelina and Sams will face off in a pair of friendlies between the USWNT and the Brazil Women’s National Team.

Pride Still on Top

It seems that there are more outlets providing NWSL power rankings every week, but as long as they keep the Pride on top, I’ll keep letting you know about it. Given that the Pride are undefeated, with the most goals scored and the best goal differential, it isn’t surprising that the club is sitting atop the official standings along with these “highly scientific” power rankings. Goal.com, Sports Illustrated, and All For IX all rank the Pride in first place just above the Kansas City Current. I suppose even power rankings are occasionally correct.

Orlando’s Various World Cup Ties

You probably know that Orlando wasn’t selected to be one of the host cities for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. As disappointing as that was, there’s still a chance that the city, and Orlando City SC’s training grounds at Osceola Heritage Park will host team training during the event. The top notch facilities, plus the relatively close proximity to host cities Miami and Atlanta, make Orlando a good option.

On a more positive note, Orlando was chosen as a host city for the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup. Camping World Stadium will see Club León vs. CR Flamengo, and Juventus vs. Manchester City. The Group H runner-up vs. Group G winner match and one of the quarterfinal round matches will also be in Orlando. There’s plenty to see and do in the City Beautiful, including some great soccer.

USWNT Youth Movement

Sams won’t be the only younger player in Emma Hayes’ lineup for the friendlies against Brazil. Hayes wants to deepen the player pool, which means bringing in players with an average age of just over 25 years old, and the average number of appearances is less than 35. Hayes also believes this is a chance for the younger players who appeared in the loss to Japan in the SheBelieves Cup. The first of the two matches is this Saturday at 5 p.m., with the second coming up Tuesday at 10:30 p.m.

Free Kicks


That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for the Orlando City and OCB matches this weekend. Hopefully, you have two screens since the match start times overlap. Vamos Orlando!

Continue Reading

Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/1/25

Barbra Banda’s continued importance, Americans in midweek action, USWNT announces friendly, and more.

Published

on

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Good morning everyone! It was a great weekend for Orlando’s soccer teams as Orlando City and the Orlando Pride both won, meaning that we got treated to a six-point weekend (OCB was off). As always we have plenty to talk through this morning, so let’s get into today’s links.

Barbra Banda Keeps Rolling in 2025

After a wildly successful debut season with the Orlando Pride in 2024, Barbra Banda has showed no signs of slowing down this year. A brace in the season opener meant that she picked up right where she left off last year, and the team has continued to be successful too. The Pride have made it three wins from three to start the 2025 season, and while Banda hasn’t scored since the opener, her blend of pace, power, dribbling, passing, and movement have continuously helped open things up for her teammates, and she drew a penalty that led to the Pride’s game-winning goal Saturday. She isn’t the Pride’s only offensive weapon, but the team clicks into a different gear when she’s at her best.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans who will be playing in games during the working week, and there are some very important clashes on hand. Things get going later today when Antonee Robinson and Fulham visit Arsenal in Premier League play as the Cottagers are in hot pursuit of a coveted European place. Wednesday has Chris Richards, Matt Turner and Crystal Palace facing Southampton, while Tyler Adams and Bournemouth take on Manchester City. Also on Wednesday, Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, and AC Milan will face Inter Milan in a Coppa Italia semifinal. Things finish up on Friday as Aidan Morris and Middlesborough travel to Blackburn Rovers in the EFL Championship.

USWNT Announces Canada Match

The United States Women’s National Team has announced another friendly taking place this summer, as the team will face Canada on July 2 in Washington, D.C. The match will be the third that the USWNT will play during the window, following a pair of friendlies against Ireland in late June. The neighboring countries will meet at Audi Field with the match designated as the Allstate Continental Clasico, with this being the first time that the match will feature the USWNT. The U.S. faced Canada twice in 2024, with both matches ending in 2-2 draws and the USWNT emerging victorious in shootouts.

Concacaf Champions Cup Preview

The Concacaf Champions Cup returns this week, with the first legs of the four quarterfinal matches set to be played today and tomorrow. Things get started tonight with what should be an exciting match between Club America and Cruz Azul, with the crosstown rivals two of the winningest teams in the competition. Cruz Azul’s Angel Sepulveda leads the CCC’s golden boot race with four tallies. The late game sees the LA Galaxy taking on Tigres as the Galaxy will try to distract themselves from a difficult start to their MLS Cup title defense. Wednesday’s slate has the Vancouver Whitecaps taking on Pumas UNAM in Canada in what will be the second-ever meeting between the two teams. The late game will be an all-MLS affair as LAFC hosts Inter Miami in the first meeting between the two sides in CCC play.

Sporting Kansas City Fires Peter Vermes

The longest-tenured coach in Major League Soccer is out of work, as Sporting Kansas City announced the firing of Peter Vermes on Monday morning. It’s an end of an era in Kansas City, as Vermes was the head coach since 2009, back when the team was still called the Kansas City Wizards, and he had been named the club’s technical director three years earlier in 2006. He guided the team to an MLS Cup win in 2013; claimed U.S. Open Cup titles in 2012, 2015, and 2017; and helped the team be consistently competitive for a majority of his tenure. Despite all of that, SKC missed the playoffs in two of the last three seasons and was mired in the midst of a 13-game winless streak in all competitions that stretched back to Sept. 18 of last year. After being an assistant on Vermes’ staff, Kerry Zavagnin will take over as interim head coach.

Free Kicks


That’s all I have for this morning. Vamos Orlando!

Continue Reading

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. LA Galaxy: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s 2-1 victory over the LA Galaxy?

Published

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City capped off its March slate of matches with a cross-country bout against the 2024 MLS Cup champions, the LA Galaxy. In what was the longest commute that the Lions will register in the 2025 season, Orlando looked out of sync for much of the match, especially when contrasted with the squad that stomped D.C. United at home last week. Miraculously for the fans that stayed up past their bedtimes back on the East Coast, the Lions shocked the reigning champions and stole all three points with a come-from-behind 2-1 victory over the final quarter hour of the match.

Let’s look at the Lions’ individual performances to see who made the grade and who can improve as the calendar turns to April.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 6.5 — Gallese returned for Orlando after missing time while representing Peru during World Cup qualifiers. For the most part, he did well against the pressure of an agressive attack from the Galaxy. In the end, he was credited with just one save, which was a massive righthanded block of a shot by Gabriel Pec that could have put the game away for the home side. It isn’t worth entertaining a discussion about Gallese “letting another one in,” as the goal that the Galaxy scored was off a point-blank redirection back against his momentum, and it should have at the bare minimum warranted a second look for a potential offside ruling. His distribution was mostly solid, and he had an 81.8% passing rate on his 11 attempts while completing three of his five long balls. He was booked in the waining moments of the match for time wasting — although it was Rodrigo Schlegel who kicked the ball away without being spotted, and Gallese was merely retrieving it.

D, Rafael Santos, 5.5 — Santos had a few bright moments throughout the match, with an emphasis on the word few. I did think that he was better at getting into the attack and sent several balls across the net that had the potential to be dangerous. On the defensive end, there were just too many mistakes for my liking, whether that be careless turnovers, poor positioning, or falling asleep on the back side of the play. He and Ivan Angulo were both at fault on LA’s goal, as neither picked up Miki Yamane’s run. Santos was also overpowered twice by Pec. The Brazilian touched the ball 48 times, provided two key passes, one successful cross (on five attempts), and a passing rate of 76.9%. Defensively, he provided two tackles and three clearances. Offensively, Santos recorded a shot that was not on target. The left back currently benefits from a lack of depth pushing him for his starting minutes but will need to improve if Orlando is to continue its winning ways. He was replaced by David Brekalo in the 66th minute.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 7 — Schlegel had a productive and technically sound evening for the Lions. Defensively, he contributed one interception, a team-high seven clearances, and two blocked shots. He passed at a 93.6% rate, while touching the ball a team-high 88 times, and completed five long balls (on eight attempts). He didn’t register an offensive statistic during the match, but he played well and I thought that he had solid positioning throughout the night when the Galaxy sent balls into the box.

D, Robin Jansson, 6 — Something just seems off right now with Jansson, as the output from the captain simply feels less than what we have come to expect. Nonetheless, Jansson went the full 90 and recorded 65 touches. He completed 94.8% of his passes which included a team-best seven accurate long balls on nine attempts. Defensively, he contributed one tackle, one interception, and three clearances. Christian Ramirez beat Jansson on the lone goal for the Galaxy.

D, Alex Freeman, 6.5 — Freeman continues to put in the work for Orlando City. While his first West Coast trip was not fruitful in terms of goal-scoring contributions, the young Lion still managed to affect the game in a myriad of ways. He recorded 69 touches and completed 93.3% of his passes, which included two key passes and one accurate cross. Defensively, he added a team-high four tackles and two clearances. Offensively, Freeman tied Martin Ojeda for the most shots taken on the night (three) but was only able to put one on target. Freeman continues to showcase a solid motor that is helping to drive the offense, and he has shown strong chemistry with Marco Pasalic as well, but the most impressive aspect of his game against the Galaxy for me was the job he did in space defensively against Joseph Paintsil when the speedster entered the match in the second half.

MF, Cesar Araujo, 6.5 — This felt like a classic Araujo performance and the Uruguayan was seemingly everywhere on the pitch. He logged 63 touches and completed 90% of his passes but was only successful on one of his five long-ball attempts. Defensively, he contirbuted two tackles, one interception, and two clearances. Offensively, Araujo did not record a stat but did suffer a team-high three fouls. Araujo was able to defend without being booked against the Galaxy, and he has shown signficant improvement this season so far in not picking up careless yellow cards.

MF, Eduard Atuesta, 7.5 (MotM) — The former member of LAFC became the catalyst for the late offensive turnaround against what used to be his crosstown rival by earning a penalty in the 77th minute. He recorded 75 touches and completed 89.8% of his passes, which inlcuded two key passes, four accurate long balls on five attempts, and two succesful crosses on two attempts. Offensively, he attempted two shots, one which nearly put Orlando City in the lead when it hit the right post. Defensively, he contributed one tackle and two clearances. Atuesta benefitted from the insertion of Brekalo and Duncan McGuire, pushing forward into the attack, and without his effort, Orlando City likely would not have earned all three points. He was replaced by Joran Gerbet in stoppage time as part of a time-wasting, like-for-like substitution to see out the match.

MF, Ivan Angulo, 5.5 — To put it bluntly, Angulo is not in great form right now. The speedy Colombian is failing to challenge opposing back lines in the attack and has become a liability on the defensive side of the ball. The pairing of Angulo with Santos on the left has become a favorite area for the opposition to attack, and he was partly culpable in letting Yamane sneak in toward the back post on LA’s goal. He recorded 37 touches and completed 90.5% of his passes, which included one key pass. Defensively, he chipped in one tackle and one interception. Offensively, Angulo was dispossessed a team-high four times, as the careless giveaways — often in Orlando’s defensive half — continue to pile up. Orlando clearly needs more from the left wing, who was replaced in the 66th minute by McGuire, with Oscar Pareja pushing Ojeda to the left and playing Luis Muriel as the No. 10.

MF, Martin Ojeda, 7 — Ojeda did not allow another Lion to even remotely consider taking the penalty as he quickly stood over the spot, ball in hand, and then calmly converted the PK to pull Orlando level. Ojeda has now tied his goals total (four) from the 2024 season in only the sixth game of the year. Ojeda touched the ball 56 times and passed at a 90.5% rate while providing one key pass and four accurate long balls out of five attempts. Ojeda could have stood to improve his crossing, as he was only accurate on one of his five attempts. Offensively, Ojeda took three shots (tied with Freeman for the most on the team) but put just one on target (the penalty that he converted). He badly scuffed his first shot and his second was just off target in the first half. Defensively, he didn’t contribute a meaningful statistic, which was surprising, and it kept him just a rung below Atuesta when it came to Man of the Match honors.

MF, Marco Pasalic, 6.5 — Pasalic showcased several individual moments of brillance in the first half when the game was moving quickly end to end. Unfortunately for the Croatian winger, those moments failed to result in a change to the scoreboard. He touched the ball 39 times and completed 81.5% of his passes, including all four of his long balls. Defensively, like Ojeda, Pasalic did not record a meaningful statistic. Despite not scoring against the Galaxy, Pasalic continues to flash his skill with the ball and has been one of the main driving forces behind the strong offensive start to the season. He was replaced by Dagur Dan Thorhallsson in the 82nd minute.

F, Luis Muriel, 7 — Did Muriel score or did John McCarthy botch the play? Both, but who cares? Muriel’s long-distance free kick in the 90th minute found the back of the net, and the placement of the shot contributed to McCarthy’s mistake, as the Colombian sealed the victory and three important road points for Orlando City. A play reminisent of when fellow Designated Player Ojeda hit the equalizer from practically midfield against Charlotte FC back in 2023, Muriel stepped up to a free kick well outside the box and sent a shot towards the top left corner of the net. The goal capped a well-rounded performance for Muriel, who continues to play his best soccer in an Orlando City kit. Muriel finished with 37 touches and completed 88% of his passes, including a key pass. Offensively, he registered two shots with the one that mattered being on target. His other shot was a laser through traffic that barely missed just outside the left post on a set piece. Defensively, the striker contributed a tackle. Kyle Smith replaced him in the third minute of stoppage time.

Substitutes

D, David Brekalo (66’), 7 — I thought Brekalo put in some of his best minutes of the year as he entered in the 66th minute for Santos. It was an unexpected substitution, as Brekalo is a central defender. Regardless, the Slovenian played strong and sound defense, snuffing out multiple attacking runs by Pec. He racked up three tackles and three clearances on defense and put in several eye-opening efforts in the attack as well, as Orlando looked to get back into the match. He completed 90.9% of his passes, and while he did not record a shot, he was quite active around the box and made multiple runs off of his attacking counterparts. Brekalo at left back might be something to keep an eye on, as Pareja has been looking for someone to play consistently well there early in the season. Time will tell.

F, Duncan McGuire (66’), 6.5 — McGuire secured his longest stint since his off-season shoulder surgery and looked agressive over the final moments of the match. He opens up the field in a way Muriel is physically not able to at this point in his career, as the American got in behind the back line multiple times and pulled it out of shape for his teammates to exploit. He recorded three shots, which were all off target, but it is only a matter of time before the forward finds the back of the net. He completed 80% of his five passes and was credited with a key pass.

MF, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson (82′), N/A — Thorhallsson came on in relief of Pasalic and did well over the final moments of the match. The insertion of Brekalo, McGuire, and then Thorhallsson allowed Orlando to be the more dangerous side over the last 20 plus minutes of game time. He completed 83.3% of his passes and was credited with two key passes. Defensively, the product of Iceland added two clearances, and he did well to track back and help Freeman keep Paintsil bottled up.

D, Kyle Smith (93′), N/A — Smith came in following the long-distance goal by Muriel to help see out the victory.

MF, Joran Gerbet (93′), N/A — Like Smith, Gerbet was inserted to help see out the road win in stoppage time but also came into the match for Atuesta who was on a yellow card.


That’s how I saw the individual performances in Orlando City’s come-from-behind win over the Galaxy. Let us know how you saw the game in the comments below, and don’t forget to vote for your Man of the Match.

Continue Reading

Trending