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Orlando City Needs to Defend Better to Make a Deep Playoff Run

An analysis of how Orlando City’s defensive performance has been based based opponent rankings.

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3 weeks ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.

Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:

This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):

This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.

There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):

I had three major takeaways from this data:

  1. Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
  2. Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
  3. The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.

Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.

I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.

Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.

PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.

The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.

Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.

Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.

I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.

Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.

The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.

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Orlando City

Orlando City Experiencing Its Golden Age of Offense

Facundo Torres and Duncan McGuire are leading Orlando City to its best offensive seasons.

Published

10 hours ago

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October 14, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

For most of Orlando City’s MLS history, finding multiple reliable goal scorers has been a struggle. As a result, the team has often been further down the league in goals scored, decreasing its goal difference. However, the duo of Facundo Torres and Duncan McGuire has changed that trend and provided the Lions with their best offensive seasons.

Orlando City drafted Cyle Larin with the first pick of the 2015 MLS SuperDraft and he quickly became a reliable source of goals. The Canadian international scored a team-record 18 goals across all competitions in his rookie year, and then scored 14 in the following season.

Larin’s production dipped slightly in 2017, scoring 12 goals, and the striker departed following that season. Orlando City has struggled to find someone that can provide the same scoring threat since. Over the next five years, only Nani and Chris Mueller scored double-digit goals in multiple seasons, each doing so twice. Prior to 2023, four other players scored double-digit goals in one season, as Dom Dwyer did it in 2018, Tesho Akindele in 2019, Daryl Dike in 2021, and Ercan Kara in 2022.

The lack of consistent goal production changed in 2022 when the club signed Facundo Torres from Uruguayan side Penarol. The young Designated Player made an immediate impact for his new team, scoring 13 goals in all competitions, including a brace in the 2022 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup final to lift the Lions to their first major trophy.

Torres and Kara combined for an impressive 25 goals that season. Unfortunately, the pair didn’t have much support and the Lions only scored 44 goals in 2022. However, that changed the following year when Orlando City drafted former Creighton striker and Hermann Trophy winner Duncan McGuire.

Torres increased his goal tally to 14 in his second season in Orlando and McGuire netted a team-high 15 in his rookie campaign. The 29 goals scored by the pair were the most by two Orlando City players in an MLS season, topping the 28 goals scored by Larin and Kaká in 2015.

The goal tally has increased in 2024, with Torres scoring a career-high 18 goals, McGuire adding 11, and Ramiro Enrique chipping in with 11 of his own across all competitions. It’s the first time an Orlando City team — including the USL Pro era — has had three players score double-digit goals in one year. It’s also the first time in club history Orlando has had multiple double-digit goal scorers in three consecutive years.

The production by multiple players has seen a significant increase in goals scored by the Lions over the past two seasons. After netting only 44 league goals in 2022, Orlando City scored 55 times in 2023, tying the team’s MLS record previously set in 2016. The Lions surpassed that number this year by scoring 58 goals with one game remaining in the regular season.

The club’s record-setting scoring output comes at a time when Orlando City is playing some of its best defense in its MLS history. The 2023 squad only conceded 39 goals, the fewest in a 34-game season. While it has conceded nine more this year, it’s the second-fewest goals conceded in a season, tying the 2021 team.

The past two seasons have seen Orlando City set new club records in the MLS era for highest goal difference in a 34-game season. The only two years in which the Lions had a positive goal difference prior to 2023 was in a shortened 2020 season, when they were +15 and in 2021 when they were +2. They set a new record in 2023 by finishing +16 and are +10 this year.

The increase in goals and goal difference has resulted in better performances throughout the season. The team set a new club record with 63 points last season, placing second in the Supporters’ Shield standings. Orlando has amassed 52 points so far this season, the club’s second-highest point total since joining MLS.

While the play of the back line has contributed to the team’s recent success, goal production has been the catalyst. For the first time in its history, Orlando City has two reliable goal scorers who have produced in back-to-back seasons. The result is the best back-to-back seasons in the club’s MLS history.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 10/14/24

Getting to know Martin Ojeda, Orlando Pride unbeaten run ends, USMNT beats Panama, and more.

Published

13 hours ago

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October 14, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you over the holiday weekend. I’ve been busy working at Under Armour and finishing up stream monitoring for an NISA Playoff semifinal match in California. Let’s also wish a happy birthday to Orlando City B forward Wilfredo Rivera. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links. 

Getting to Know Martin Ojeda

Orlando City midfielder Martin Ojeda was featured as part of the club’s video series to learn more about the players. In the video, Ojeda gave insight into his beginnings playing soccer when he was three years old and playing for his neighborhood club in South America. He also discussed his style of play, focusing on the attack, creating opportunities, and stating that there is always room to improve. You can check out the rest of the video below.

Pride Unbeaten Run Ends in Loss to Thorns

The Orlando Pride suffered their first loss of the NWSL season on Friday, falling 2-0 to the Portland Thorns. Morgan Weaver and Christine Sinclair scored for the Thorns to seal the win and end Orlando’s 24-match unbeaten streak dating back to Oct. 6 of last season. Despite the loss, the Pride remain in first place in the NWSL table with 57 points after winning the NWSL Shield a week ago. The next match for the Pride will be on Sunday on the road against NJ/NY Gotham FC.

Keys to Success in Orlando Pride Turnaround

The Athletic ($) took a deep dive into the process that led to the Orlando Pride turnaround this season. The article begins with the Pride joining the NWSL in 2016, their up-and-down seasons, and how recent changes in the last couple of years have set the foundation for the club’s success in 2024. It also shared some unique insights from interviews with staff and players and how the club was eager to make changes after finishing in the bottom half of the table for the last five seasons. The most interesting takeaway for me from reading the article was Head Coach Seb Hines speaking on the process of changing the culture of the club, building that underdog mindset, and how he keeps his players motivated. Although the 24-match unbeaten streak is over, the Pride are breaking records this season and won their first trophy. There’s been plenty to be excited about for the Pride this season, and hopefully they will carry this momentum into the playoffs and make a deep run.

USMNT Defeats Panama in Mauricio Pochettino’s Coaching Debut

The U.S. Men’s National Team defeated Panama 2-0 on Saturday at Q2 Stadium, securing the first win in Head Coach Mauricio Pochettino’s debut in a friendly. Yunus Musah and Ricardo Pepi scored the USMNT’s goals in the second half to secure the victory. Matt Turner started in goal, and Christian Pulisic added an assist to set up Musah’s goal. The USMNT will face Mexico in Guadalajara on Tuesday. Pulisic, Pepi, and Weston McKennie will miss the match to return to their respective European clubs. Marlon Fossey and Zack Steffen will also return to their clubs.

Free Kicks

  • Orlando City goalkeeper Pedro Gallese earned a clean sheet on international duty as his Peru side defeated Uruguay 1-0 in a CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying match on Friday. Wilder Cartagena and Facundo Torres did not play in the match.
  • Orlando Pride midfielder Angelina and forward Adriana were called up to the Brazil Women’s National Team for friendlies against Colombia on Oct. 26 and Oct. 29.
  • Sports Illustrated listed five MLS players that could move abroad this off-season, mentioning Orlando City’s Facundo Torres and Duncan McGuire as potential targets.
  • Angel City FC forward Christen Press scored her first goal in 28 months over the weekend in a 1-1 draw against the North Carolina Courage. Press had been sidelined due to an ACL injury requiring four surgeries before returning to action.
  • Kansas City Current forward Temwa Chawinga broke an NWSL record after scoring her 19th goal of the season in a 1-0 win over Bay FC over the weekend.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday and I’ll see you next time.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 10/11/24

Orlando Pride in Portland, U.S. men and women news, international upsets, and more.

Published

4 days ago

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October 11, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Milton has finally made its way out of Florida, though many of us will be dealing with the aftermath for a while. We hope that you and yours are safe and that the damage is minimal. I know that many are still without power — which is why I’m writing Lion Links today instead of Marcus Mitchell. Fortunately, the Orlando Pride play in Portland tonight, although it will be a late one. Let’s get to the links.

Pride in Portland

The Orlando Pride may be the NWSL Shield winners, but with three matches left in the regular season, the job is not done. Now, the club will take on the Portland Thorns. The Thorns haven’t been great as of late, but Providence Park is a tough place to play. While the club is focused on the upcoming playoffs, the Pride still want to finish undefeated in the regular season. Portland, like many clubs, are fighting for a playoff spot.

USWNT Players in the News

Lindsey Horan didn’t have the best Olympics in my opinion, but she is doing very well in her start to Lyon’s season. She’s scored five goals in four matches to help Lyon top the table. Back home, Crystal Dunn is being honored by Empowerment on the East River hosted by Black Players for Change.

USMNT in Action

The USMNT plays its first match under Mauricio Pochettino Saturday night against Panama, and you can watch it on multiple platforms. There are no conflicts of interest this go-around, but next year, some players will need to choose between playing in the Club World Cup or the Gold Cup.

International Results

Orlando City, and all the other teams and leagues, aren’t playing right now due to an international break. The matches have already begun. Perhaps the biggest news was Greece’s stunning 2-1 win over England. The victory puts Greece atop Group B2 in the UEFA Nations League competition.

Over in Group A2, Italy blew a two-goal lead to draw Belgium 2-2. There were plenty of other results, including Erling Haaland becoming his country’s all-time top scorer after scoring a brace in Norway’s 3-0 win over Slovenia. If you want to catch more matches, here’s where you can watch.

Free Kicks

That will do it for today. Check back tonight for our Pride match recap, and follow The Mane Land on Twitter during the match. Vamos Orlando!

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