The Orlando Pride are in a great position with just four games remaining in the NWSL regular season. After remaining undefeated through the first 22 games, they have established a seven-point lead at the top of the table. With a matchup against the second-place Washington Spirit looming, the Pride could win the NWSL Shield as soon as this weekend — at Inter&Co Stadium no less. There is everything to play for in the coming weeks, so how do the scenarios play out for the shield, potential playoff opponents, and several NWSL regular-season records that may still be broken?

The Shield Race

The NWSL shield is the trophy awarded to the club that finishes the regular season with the highest point total, and though the Orlando Pride are clear favorites, there is still work to be done to clinch the award. Shown below are the four teams that remain in the shield race and the “magic number” needed for the Pride to finish above them, with more explanation below the table.

The magic number is used to measure what results are needed for the leading team (Orlando) to be mathematically guaranteed of finishing in first place. The magic number for each opposing team counts down until it reaches zero, at which point that team cannot match Orlando’s point total. Specifically, an Orlando win reduces the magic number by three points for each team in the table, and one point for a tie, because they have extended their lead by that many points. When a team below Orlando loses, it reduces that team’s magic number by three points because there are that many fewer points available to gain and catch Orlando. Therefore, when an opposing team ties, it creates a special case that reduces the magic number by two points, because they had the opportunity for three points but dropped two of them.

The example of the Kansas City Current from the table above helps to explain the magic number. As it stands today, the Pride could finish with 54 points, at worst, after four straight losses. Kansas City could finish with 55 points after four wins and claim the shield. If the Current drop two points, or Orlando gains two points, the magic number goes to zero and the Current cannot win the shield. The same math applies for Gotham, where the Pride only need one win (or one loss from Gotham) to make the magic number zero. This shows just how narrow of a path to the shield now remains for Gotham and Kansas City, so only the Spirit can offer a credible challenge.

Considering the Spirit, this weekend’s matchup looms extra large, because head-to-head matches count double in a title race. If the Pride defeat the Spirit, that would reduce the magic number by six, three for Orlando winning and three for Washington losing, and the shield race would be over. For the three remaining matches of the season, Head Coach Seb Hines would be able to rest the squad intelligently and enter the postseason in the best shape possible to play for the NWSL championship. But, don’t expect too much rest for key players, as there would still be the undefeated season to play for.

Even a tie on Sunday would serve Orlando well and reduce the magic number by three. Fans would love it if the club won the shield at home so they could be present for the celebrations, but if that doesn’t happen Sunday, collective stress levels would be better served by winning on the road at Portland or Gotham, rather than waiting until the final match of the season to clinch the trophy. It would also be possible for the Pride to win the shield by tying each remaining match of the season, meaning that the club cannot go undefeated in the regular season and somehow lose the shield.

A loss against the Spirit is where things would start to look a little more challenging for the Pride. After a hypothetical loss, Hines would have to refocus the squad in order to win two of the final three matches, assuming perfection from the Spirit. Unfortunately, Washington does not have any games against top-five opposition after playing the Pride, as the Spirit face Racing Louisville and the Chicago Red Stars at home and North Carolina Courage on the road. While the Spirit have been playing without several injured stars, notably Trinity Rodman and Croix Bethune, they showed their quality and depth by beating Angel City FC away from home in their most recent outing. Fortunately for Orlando, the Pride also currently boast a goal differential eight goals better than the Spirit, so in the unlikely possibility that this tiebreaker matters in back-to-back seasons, the Pride should have the edge.

Playoff Matchups

Behind the excitement of the shield race is the importance of matchups when it comes to the NWSL playoffs. For simplicity’s sake, it is not unreasonable to assume a top-two finish for the Pride, considering the long odds of multiple teams finishing above them after the coming matches. A top-two finish is significant not only because it ensures the first round is played against opposition from middle clubs in the final NWSL table, but it also ensures home field advantage in the second round of the playoffs if the team advances. Despite these advantages, anything can happen in the NWSL playoffs, as Gotham showed last year by finishing in the final playoff spot and then winning three matches en route to being crowned NWSL champions.

Looking at the rest of the NWSL table (below) shows just how many teams Orlando could still face in the first round of the NWSL playoffs. Since Orlando can technically finish anywhere from first to fourth, and no teams have been eliminated from contention, the Pride could play any team in the league in the first round.

By using some common sense, however, we can whittle the number of potential opponents down to four probable candidates. Based on a top-two finish by Orlando, the Pride would face a team that finishes either seventh or eighth. Then, since only four matches remain and none of the teams in the middle of the pack are lighting the world on fire of late, it’s likely that a team within five points of these positions will end the season there.

This list of expected first-round opponents then can be pared down to Chicago, Portland, Bay, and Racing, as it seems to be just too much ground for the others to make up. The Pride have had solid results against their potential playoff opponents, racking up five wins and two draws, with a match against Portland still upcoming. It doesn’t seem that long ago that Portland and Orlando met on a combined 13-match winning streak, but fortunes have diverged greatly since then and Portland has the league’s worst form and risks missing the playoffs altogether. As the Orlando Pride well know, every team in the league has their day, and the team is sure to take the matchup seriously, no matter who the opponent ends up being.

League Records in Reach

While wins and trophies are all that a roster and coaching staff should worry about, us fans often like to keep track of records set along the way. Due to Orlando’s elite play all season, many of the loftiest league records could be broken before the season ends. Several of these records could take all 26 matches to break, but some, like the points record of 57, set by the Courage in 2018, can be surpassed in the same number of matches that they were set.

After going undefeated for 22 matches so far this season, the Orlando Pride are favorites for the NWSL shield. Their additional reward for winning that trophy would be favorable matchups in the playoffs, including home field advantage for the quarterfinals and semifinals. Both of these would have been considered lofty goals at the start of the season, but now, everything is within reach, including some truly incredible records.

Based on the way they’ve carried themselves all year, the players are sure to give it their all and play some damn fine soccer in the final regular season matches. Sunday, they could have a trophy to show for it, and all of Inter&Co Stadium would be there to share in the celebrations. If Sunday isn’t their day, the Pride will have a few more chances for glory in the weeks that follow.

The Orlando Pride announced today that the club has signed midfielder Julie Doyle to a new contract. The three-year deal will keep Doyle in purple through the 2026 NWSL season.

“Julie has been critical to the culture we are building here and our success on the pitch this season,” Orlando Pride Vice President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director Haley Carter said in a club press release. “She brings an important element to our attack, her speed posing problems for opponents whether she’s on the wing or in the middle of the field. She’s invested in herself, committed to her development and growth, and has consistently provided a positive presence whether starting or entering matches as a game changer. We’re excited Julie’s eager to remain in Orlando and look forward to helping her achieve the goals she’s set out for herself.”

The Pride selected Doyle with the 11th overall pick in the 2022 NWSL Draft out of the University of Santa Clara, signing her to a one-year deal with a club option. She debuted on April 16, 2022, in the NWSL Challenge Cup, coming on in the 70th minute for Meggie Dougherty Howard in a 4-2 loss to the North Carolina Courage. The midfielder soon made herself a key part of the team, starting nine games in her rookie season. Her play earned her a new two-year deal on May 8, 2023.

The attacker has become a regular starter over the past two seasons. She’s made 24 appearances this year with 19 starts and recorded 1,393 minutes in all competitions, scoring three goals and providing an assist. In her nearly three years as a professional, Doyle has made 61 appearances with 43 starts, recorded 3,260 minutes, scored seven goals, and accumulated four assists.

“I couldn’t be happier to be staying in Orlando. This team is so special, and I feel blessed to be a part of what we are creating here,” Doyle said in the club’s press release. “I am extremely motivated to continue to contribute to the team’s success and bring a championship home to our amazing fans.”

Prior to being drafted by the Pride, Doyle was a key contributor to the Santa Clara Broncos, captaining the side and helping the team to its second national championship in 2020. She made 70 appearances during her collegiate career with 55 starts, scoring 16 goals and providing 14 assists. She was named to the All-West Regional First Team in 2020 and was a three-time All-WECC selection.

Doyle has also had an international career, representing the United States at the U-15, U-18, U-19, and U-20 levels. She was an alternate for the 2016 FIFA U-20 Women’s World Cup in Australia.

What It Means for Orlando

Doyle has become a regular starter in the Pride attack since her arrival, usually starting on the left alongside Marta and Adriana. She’s one of the fastest players in the league, causing problems for opposing defenses. Originally a forward, Doyle has found a home in the midfield where she can use her speed to cause the most trouble.

It’s not surprising that the Pride would want to keep Doyle nor that the midfielder would want to stay in Orlando. She was drafted early in the team’s rebuild and quickly became a part of the team’s core. At 26 years old, her best years are likely ahead of her and she’ll continue to be a key contributor to the Pride as they work toward winning trophies.

The National Women’s Soccer League has grown significantly over the past few years. It wasn’t long ago that players were struggling to make a living wage, largely because crowds were rarely more than 3,000 fans. However, many of the league’s teams have regularly seen attendances over 10,000 this season.

Orlando City’s ownership group launched a women’s team in 2016 and it looked like it would be one of the best supported women’s teams in the world. After Orlando City filled Camping World Stadium in 2015 and 2016 with over 62,000 fans, the club tried a similar marketing campaign with the Pride. It worked for the opening game, as the team saw 23,403 fans enter the stadium, setting a league record at the time.

Unfortunately, that momentum soon went away. Following the record-breaking crowd in the season opener, the Pride drew an average of 7,139. While it was a far cry from the more than 23,000 in the team’s first game, the average attendance, excluding the opener, was second to the Portland Thorns — who regularly filled Providence Park — and nearly 1,500 more than the Houston Dash.

To the Pride’s credit, they did everything they could to draw people to Camping World Stadium. The team filled its roster with USWNT stars, including Alex Morgan and Ashlyn Harris. They improved their roster in 2017, signing Ali Krieger, Alanna Kennedy, and Marta, arguably the best women’s player of all time.

The signings were fruitful on the field as the Pride qualified for the NWSL playoffs for the first time in team history, falling to the Thorns in the semifinal round. But the success didn’t show in the stands. The first game in the team’s new soccer-specific stadium saw 14,452 in attendance for the first game, a number that fell significantly during the season. The average home attendance in 2017 was 6,186, but only 5,435 without counting the season opener.

Over the next few years, attendance numbers continued to drop, falling to a team-worst average of 3,773 in 2021. Excluding the NWSL Challenge Cup — which drew much smaller crowds— the average was raised slightly to 4,227 fans per game.

The 2022 season saw a slight rise in regular-season home attendance for the Pride with an average of 4,385. However, that number is skewed by a special game at Daytona International Speedway, which drew 7,573. The team drew 4,067 fans at its home stadium.

A large part of the poor attendance that season was that the Pride were going through a rebuild. Star players like Morgan, Harris, and Krieger were traded away for draft picks and Allocation Money as the Pride looked to follow the example of the Washington Spirit, which won the NWSL championship in 2021.

The Pride made some big changes following the 2022 season. Head Coach Amanda Cromwell and Assistant Coach Sam Greene were banned from the league for retaliatory behavior and assistants Aline Villares Reis and Michelle Akers left the club. General Manager Ian Fleming was also let go. Seb Hines — who was the only coach remaining and took over as interim head coach — was hired permanently and Haley Carter was brought in as general manager.

The work of Hines and Carter has seen success on and off the field. When they felt the young core was ready, the duo began to bring in veteran players. As a result, the Pride narrowly missed out on the 2023 playoffs solely on goal differential and are unbeaten this year through 22 games and on the cusp of claiming the NWSL Shield.

The crowds have begun to show up as well. Last season, the Pride averaged 5,766 fans across all home games and 6,353 in home league games. That average league attendance is the second-highest in team history. That number has grown this year to 8,034 in all competitions and 8,448 in league games. The team drew an announced crowd of 17,084 Saturday night against the Houston Dash, the second-largest crowd in team history, the team’s largest in the current stadium, and its largest outside of a season opener.

The difference in the crowd support has been noticed by the players and few have a better viewpoint for comparison than Carson Pickett. The right back initially played for the Pride from 2018 to 2020 before being traded to the North Carolina Courage. She was brought back this year from Racing Louisville FC in a midseason trade and spoke about the difference in crowd support Saturday night.

“To be able to see this club turn from 2020 all the way until now, and just see the growth and everything that Haley and Seb have done here and the girls, the work that they’ve put in day in and day out. I stepped into this club, and I was like, ‘Wow, this is a winning club, a winning culture,’” Pickett said. “And just to be able to do it in front of, I think a record crowd, I mean, it’s unbelievable. It’s pushing the game forward. It’s pushing the Orlando Pride forward.”

While the team is glad to see the growth, it doesn’t depend solely on the fans to make it happen. The players and staff know they need to provide a product worth watching and put the responsibility on themselves to draw people to the stadium.

“I’ve said it from the start, we’ve had to make it our duty to try to attract more fans to come watch us play,” Hines said after the Houston game. “I know behind the scenes the front office are doing a terrific job to continue to try to promote fans to come out and support this team. And our job is to put the performances together. And I can assure you, the players are giving absolutely everything. They are doing the most to go out there and perform at their highest level and get victories. And I think tonight epitomizes with the crowd coming out and showing their support for this team. Because they’ve done so well this year.”

The success on the field and the support in the stands go together. The more the team wins, the more fans will show up. And, according to Hines, the team will play better when they have a supportive crowd behind them.

“It’s really important. It’s really important to get the backing of the fans, get them off their seats, get them excited,” Hines said. “I thought we started the half really well. I thought we were on the front foot. Created some opportunities and you could hear them. I’ve said it from the start, the fans are your 12th player. They’re the ones who spur you on. They’re the ones that stick by you, even towards the end. You can hear them loud and proud and pushing the players into getting the victory at the end.”

The future looks very bright for the Pride. They remain undefeated with only four games left in the season and could clinch the NWSL Shield Sunday. In addition to being the first trophy in club history, it would secure the first seed in the playoffs, guaranteeing the Pride home-field advantage until the NWSL Championship Game, which will be held in Kansas City.

The core of this team is still quite young, and Marta — the captain and undisputed leader — has played much younger than her 38 years of age this season. For this reason, the 2024 season likely won’t be an anomaly. The success on the field and growing crowds off the field should only increase in the coming years. If it does, the sky’s the limit for the Orlando Pride.