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Orlando City’s Most Successful Offensive and Defensive Lineups

An analysis of the best offensive and defensive groupings for Orlando City this season across all competitions.

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2 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Soccer is a game that has cheer leaders but not cheerleaders, so there is usually no opportunity to hear people chanting out “two, four, six, eight, who do we appreciate?” at soccer matches. In this article, however, we are going to offer some appreciation, and look back at a two, a four, a six and….an 11 that we appreciate.

Let’s start with the two, and take a look at midfield tandem of César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena. Orlando City’s preferred partnership started 23 games alongside one another in all competitions in 2024, and in those games Orlando City went 13-4-6.

CompetitionWinsLossesDrawsPoints per GameGoal Differential
Concacaf Champions Cup1012.00+3
Leagues Cup1021.67+3
MLS11432.00+13
Total13461.96+19

Taking a quick look at the final MLS standings, the 2.00 points per game in MLS play that Orlando City averaged when Araújo and Cartagena started together in the midfield would have ranked only behind Inter Miami’s 2.18 points per game across all 29 MLS teams and was 31% better than Orlando City’s actual final tally of 1.53 points per game (15-12-7). Doing the math, if the Lions were 11-4-3 with Araújo and Cartagena starting together (including six straight wins in their most recent six starts) and 15-12-7 overall, then they must have been 4-8-4 when it was a different starting midfield two, and 4-8-4 is a paltry 1.00 points per game, something closer to a team in the bottom third of the league. Orlando City’s lineup with their top midfield partnership was equivalent to a team on a top-two pace, a one-two punch that was frequently too powerful for an opponent to handle.

Moving on from two to four, let’s take a look at Orlando City’s back lines throughout the season to see which combination of four performed the foremost (ok, I’ll stop) throughout the season. There was a period of time early in the season when the Lions deployed a three-man back line with two wingbacks for a few games, but once they got everyone back from international matches and back to health they have rolled with the four-man back line ever since.

On the season Orlando City has played 41 games (34 in MLS, four in Concacaf Champions Cup, and three in Leagues Cup), so there have been 3,690 total minutes played by defensive groupings so far. Here are the six groupings that played at least 5% of the minutes, and how they have performed this season (own goals scored by Orlando City’s opponents have been excluded, players listed left to right on how they played positionally):

Back LineMinutes% of MinutesGoals AgainstGoals Against per 90 MinsGoal Differential
Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, Thorhallsson1,22733.3%231.69+1
Smith, Jansson, Brekalo, Thorhallsson49613.4%91.63+3
Schlegel, Cartagena, Brekalo38610.5%40.93-3
Smith, Jansson, Schlegel, Thorhallsson37910.3%71.66+4
Santos, Jansson, Brekalo, Thorhallsson3679.9%51.23-2
Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, Smith2627.1%31.03+6

Interestingly, the three-man back line of Rodrigo Schlegel, Cartagena, and David Brekalo has the best goals against per 90 minutes rating, giving up less than one goal per game, but the team struggled to score while in this lineup — odd since a three-man back line allows for seven players to play higher up the field, as opposed to only six when in the standard four-man back line. I chalk a lot of this up to it being an unfamiliar formation and one that was played early in the season when the team was trying to figure out how to mix the attacking players together, rather than an issue caused by a three-man back line.

We are focusing on the fours here though, and while the teams preferred back line clearly appears to be Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Schlegel, and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, the data points to two other groupings as ones that played at least 250 minutes together and had better goal differentials. The Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Kyle Smith back line did not debut until September, but it was effective against Charlotte (late game), Dallas (starting four), Philadelphia (starting four), and Cincinnati (starting four), and had the second-best goals against per 90 minutes rating of the most used lineups.

The Smith, Jansson, Schlegel, and Thórhallsson back line played together in nine different games — a mix of four starts and five games where they subbed into that grouping. While it was not a grouping that was difficult to break down and score against, as evidenced by the 1.66 goals against per 90 minutes, they were +4 in only 379 minutes together, so the Lions were banging in the goals at a rate of 2.61 goals scored per 90 minutes.

Sometimes the best defense is a good offense, but when we are trying to find the best defensive group of four, we want the best defense to be the best defense, so it looks like it would be either Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith or Santos, Jansson, Brekalo, and Thórhallsson. Alas, we never saw Santos, Jansson, Brekalo, and Smith together during the season, so there is no data around that grouping, and with Brekalo being seemingly the forgotten man in recent weeks, I do not think we are going to see that lineup in the playoffs either, unless there is an injury or a card situation.

For my four I’m going to go with the data, and while I expect that Thórhallsson will probably start over Smith in the next match, the data says the lineup should read Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith, with their low goals against and high goal differential.

We will yell out fore and drive our way over to six, and move from the defensive grouping to the offensive one. It is rather amazing how many different offensive combinations have played at least one minute this season. By my count, there were 107 unique offensive groupings that the Lions utilized throughout the 41 games.

While on the defensive side, Orlando City settled into a lineup that ended up playing almost exactly one-third of all minutes, on the offensive side, the most common lineup just barely reached half that number, and the six lineups that played the most together did not even play half of the total minutes available this season (players listed alphabetically, as I could not come up with an easy way to depict the offensive formation in a table).

Attacking GroupMinutes% of MinutesGoals ScoredGoals per 90 MinutesGoal Differential
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, Enrique, Ojeda, Torres61516.7%111.61+7
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, McGuire, Ojeda, Torres3399.2%82.12+3
Angulo, Araujo, Lodeiro, McGuire, Muriel, Ojeda, Torres1774.8%52.54+3
Angulo, Araujo, Lodeiro, McGuire, Muriel, Torres1644.4%21.10-1
Angulo, Araujo, Lodeiro, McGuire, Muriel, Torres1484.0%42.43+1
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, Lodeiro, McGuire, Torres1273.4%10.71+1

No other attacking grouping even played one game’s worth of minutes together all season, but I do want to include the statistics from three additional groupings, because as you see here they were prolific, albeit in small samples:

Attacking GroupMinutes% of MinutesGoals ScoredGoals per 90 MinutesGoal Differential
Angulo, Araujo, Cartagena, Enrique, Muriel, Torres722.0%33.75+2
Araujo, Cartagena, Enrique, Lodeiro, Ojeda, Torres641.7%45.63+4
Angulo, Cartagena, Enrique, Lodeiro, Muriel, Torres381.0%37.11+2

I do not expect that any of these groupings would actually continue to score at this rate if they played more minutes together, but the two lineups with Araújo and Cartagena seem like lineups that the Lions could use if trailing, and even the bottom row where Nico Lodeiro would be in for Araújo could be possible as well, since Cartagena is generally more of an offensive threat than Araújo if the coaching staff decided to move to one holding midfielder or if they needed to choose one of the two to sub out.

Going back to the commonly used lineups, the question still remains on whether the group of five (Ivan Angulo, Araújo, Cartagena, Martin Ojeda and Facundo Torres) should play more minutes with Ramiro Enrique or Duncan McGuire. The data says they are more efficient with McGuire, to the tune of an additional half a goal per 90 minutes, but most of the McGuire minutes with this group have been played later in the match, when Orlando City was already ahead and the opposition was tired and chasing an equalizer. Enrique’s minutes have nearly all been as a starter since mid-summer, so he generally faces a fresh defense and an even scoreline, so the defenders are not taking as many risks.

Two lineups that are not in either of these tables, because they were each used for only 30 minutes this season, are Araújo, Cartagena, Enrique, Luis Muriel, Ojeda, and Torres and Araújo, Cartagena, Enrique, McGuire, Muriel, and Torres, and they each scored one goal in their time together for a goals-per-90-minutes average of 3.00. Both of those lineups do not contain Angulo, which sacrifices his speed and recovery ability to get back on defense, but they do include every primary creative attacking player except Lodeiro. The samples are too small to be quantitatively confident in their success, but the qualitative side of looking at those names and thinking about how they could line up is one that is exciting to consider with the wealth of attacking talent that they possess.

All of that said, I am going to to cheat a little bit and choose for my six to be Angulo, Araújo, Cartagena, Duncmiro Enriguire, Ojeda, and Torres, a grouping that is +10 for the season in goal differential and averages 1.79 goals scored per 90 minutes while only giving up 0.85 goals scored per 90 minutes. The group with Enrique is better defensively, giving up 0.59 goals per 90 minutes, as compared to 1.33 for the group with McGuire, while the group with McGuire is better offensively, scoring 2.12 goals per 90 minutes, as compared to 1.61 with Enrique.

Alright, so we have our two, our four and our six, and as promised we are going to skip the eight and go to the 11. If we look at the full 11-player lineup that we chose (using Pedro Gallese as the goalkeeper), we had a back line of Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith; holding midfielders Araújo and Cartagena; attacking midfielders Angulo, Ojeda, and Torres; and Enrique or McGuire at striker. That lineup played together only twice all season, both with Enrique as the striker, and they were +3 during the 110 minutes that they were on the field together, scoring three goals and giving up zero.

It is hard to lose when you give up zero goals, though Orlando City did manage to do so against Cruz Azul (kind of, it was a shootout loss after a draw), but when you average scoring 2.45 goals per 90 minutes and give up 0.00 goals per 90 minutes, that sounds like a winning lineup.

In fact, of all the lineups that played together for more than 75 minutes this season, that lineup does have the best goal differential per 90 minutes. Just as with some of the attacking groupings, there were some lineups that had better goal differentials per 90 minutes in a limited sample size of minutes, but in looking at the groups that played the most minutes, it is the 11-man group from the previous paragraph that performed the best per 90 minutes.

The 11-man lineup that was used the most was Gallese as goalkeeper; a back line of Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Thórhallsson; holding midfielders Araújo and Cartagena; attacking midfielders Angulo, Ojeda, and Torres; and Enrique as striker. That group was +7 for the season in nearly 300 minutes together, a goal differential of +2.17 per 90 minutes, which is also Borat-level very nice.

While it was a rough beginning to the season for Orlando City, as the year went on the Lions settled into lineups and rotations that maximized their abilities, as evidenced by their season-ending run of 11-3-3 in all competitions since the calendar turned to July. Óscar Pareja has identified his preferred lineup, and the data and the gut feelings he has around who to play are nearly exactly matched in terms of playing the right players in combination with one another.

Whether it is the two, the four, the six or the 11, Pareja knows who to play, I reckon.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

New Year’s Resolutions for Orlando Players and Staff

What resolutions are we looking for from some of Orlando’s finest?

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1 hour ago

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January 2, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

New Year’s resolutions are a common way for many to get back on track or to continue progress already made. While I don’t personally make such resolutions, I can see how committing to bettering one’s self can provide motivation heading into a new year. That got me thinking about what resolutions some Orlando City and Orlando Pride players and staff might make at the start of 2025.

Most of these are tongue in cheek, so take these resolutions with the mirth and amusement with which they are given.

Seb Hines

What could the 2024 NWSL Coach of the Year possibly improve upon in 2025? It can’t be to smile more. I think I’ve literally only seen him not smiling on the sidelines one time. That’s it. Even when he’s having words with the officials he’s got a grin on his face. I certainly don’t want him to change that positive attitude since it’s what helped build the culture of a winning Pride. Instead, I want Hines to take a little credit for himself, even if just in his own heart.

Oscar Pareja

Oscar Pareja has taken Orlando City to five straight playoff appearances, won the 2022 U.S. Open Cup, and proven the early season doubters wrong time and again. It would be easy to say he should resolve to win the whole flipping thing, but I’m certain that is already his goal. Instead, I want him to resolve to be a little more flexible in his starting lineups. Pareja has a tendency to stick with a lineup match after match if he thinks it’s working. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but depending on the opponent, a change at say, striker, might be a good idea. You can do it, Papi!

Rodrigo Schlegel

You may not have noticed, but Rodrigo Schlegel has grown mentally and emotionally over the last few seasons. He has always had a bit of hot headedness in his play. There’s nothing wrong with that, but if you can focus that passion so you don’t get as many fouls, that’s even better. He has done that the last two seasons. He’ll be fighting for a starting spot yet again this off-season, and I think he should continue to grow in his ability to employ the dark arts without losing that fire he has in his belly.

Julie Doyle

Julie Doyle brings a lot of things to the pitch. She can contribute goals and assists, she brings fire and attitude, and she has bought into the Pride culture. What I want from her in 2025 is to bring back the Doyle Buns. I have absolutely no stats to back this up, but I feel she plays better when her hair is in double Doyle Buns formation (see picture below). It doesn’t have to be every match, but it’s been a while since we’ve seen them.

Image of Julie Doyle with her hair in matching pigtails at the back.
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

It should be obvious that Doyle’s hairstyle has nothing to do with how she plays, but since that is the case, why not bring back the buns?

Cesar Araujo/Wilder Cartagena

Orlando City’s colors are purple and gold. I feel that Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena might think they are purple and yellow with as many yellow cards they’ve earned. In 2024, the pair earned 18 yellow cards between them, which was two more than the 16 in 2023. While defensive midfielders are the most prone to be booked, given their role on the pitch, perhaps they could resolve to limit that number to avoid suspensions.

Haley McCutcheon

Haley McCutcheon was the “I didn’t see that coming” goal scorer for the Pride in the playoffs. She scored the first goal of the playoffs to give Orlando the lead in the 4-1 win over the Chicago Red Stars.

She then scored the Pride’s first goal in the 3-2 victory over the Kansas City Current to get the Orlando offense started.

If it’s not too much to ask, perhaps McCutcheon could resolve to start scoring goals earlier in the year? I don’t see the need for her to wait until the playoffs.

Luis Muriel

Luis Muriel is one of those players who needed more time to adapt to MLS. Based on his play down the stretch, it seems he’s finally comfortable with the league and his team, and he has settled in to his new home in Orlando. His resolution should be to break into the starting lineup for Orlando City. As a Designated Player, he garners a hefty paycheck, and I want the goal contributions to be commensurate with his contract.

Marta

Does anyone know where the Fountain of Youth is? I want nothing more for Marta than to stop time and keep her energy, pace, and health at 2024 levels. She was a critical component in the Pride’s historical season. As such, whatever she needs to do to bring it all again in 2025 is what she should resolve to do. Actually, I think everyone else should resolve to do whatever they can to help Marta. All of the coaches, trainers, teammates, and the front office should make her their resolution.

Obviously, I’ve only scratched the surface of the possibilities here. Now, I’d love to hear your suggestions in the comments below. Happy New Year!

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Lion Links: 1/2/25

Women’s soccer to watch in 2025, USMNT and USWNT predictions, James Sands loaned to St. Pauli, and more.

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5 hours ago

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January 2, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Welcome to the second day of the new year, Mane Landers. I didn’t do anything too monumental to ring in 2025, but it was still a fairly good start. I’ve foolishly increased my reading goal even though I didn’t hit it last year, but I’m feeling pretty optimistic. Before we get going, we here at The Mane Land want to give a special shout out to Steele Mycroft for signing up for a TAM Player-level membership on our Buy Me a Coffee page. By signing up at one of our three levels of support, our readers and podcast listeners can enjoy added benefits in addition to keeping our bills paid so we can continue doing what we do.

With that, let’s dive into today’s links!

Women’s Soccer to Watch in 2025

While most of our attention will be on whether the Orlando Pride can repeat as NWSL champions, there’s plenty worth keeping an eye on in women’s soccer this year. We’ll get to see how Brazil does without Marta in this summer’s Copa América Femenina in Ecuador. We also may get to see Barbra Banda and Grace Chanda in the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations, with Zambia in Group A along with host Morocco, Senegal, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Every FIFA confederation will also have a club champion by the end of the year, with the inaugural Concacaf W Champions Cup and AFC Women’s Champions League wrapping up. There’s also the new UEFA Women’s Europa Cup, which should put a spotlight on smaller European teams.

Predicting 2025 for USMNT and USWNT

Stars and Stripes FC made predictions for how 2025 will go for both the United States Men’s National Team and United States Women’s National Team. It predicts that the USWNT will go undefeated this year, beating some of the world’s best teams along the way. Plenty of attention will be on Lily Yohannes this year, and this month’s Futures Camp is also worth noting. I’m personally hoping the Pride’s Emily Sams can claim the center back spot alongside Naomi Girma.

As for the USMNT, Stars and Stripes FC predicts it will win both the Concacaf Nations League and Concacaf Gold Cup this year. I’m mostly excited to see how Head Coach Mauricio Pochettino unlocks the offense, and I agree that Ricardo Pepi is in a great spot to score plenty of goals.

James Sands Loaned to St. Pauli

New York City FC midfielder James Sands is headed to the Bundesliga, joining St. Pauli on loan until the end of June. The loan can also be extended through the following European season if conditions are met. The 24-year-old has already spent time in Europe, joining Rangers on loan back in 2022, but the Bundesliga should be a new kind of challenge for him. St Pauli is just four points clear of the relegation zone and Sands may help the club ensure its spot in the league next year.

MLS Teams Reportedly Interested in Marcus Rashford

A move to MLS could be an option for Manchester United forward Marcus Rashford, who has not been receiving much playing time at the club as of late. The 27-year-old still has three and a half years on his contract, but an exit before then feels inevitable. He will likely have options to stay in Europe, but MLS teams are reportedly keeping tabs on the situation and could convince Rashford to play in the U.S. While it’s not particularly novel that MLS teams would want someone of Rashford’s caliber, it’s nice that such a move isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility.

Free Kicks

  • Austin FC signed Ilie Sanchez through 2025, removing another notable free agent from the market. The 34-year-old recorded 10 goals and 18 assists in his time with LAFC and Sporting Kansas City since joining the league in 2017.
  • The Athletic ($) dove into how Christian Pulisic will be affected by AC Milan hiring Sergio Conceicao.
  • Wrexham had a minor setback in its fight for promotion after a 2-1 loss to Barnsley dropped it to third in the League One standings. While a loss never helps, there’s still plenty of the season left to go.
  • Arsenal moved up to second in the English Premier League after a 3-1 win over Brentford. Liverpool has a six-point lead and a game in hand over Arsenal, but the transfer window could change things up in the second half of the season.

That’s all I have for you all this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/1/25

Orlando Pride’s 2024 goals, Orlando City photographer featured, USMNT news, and more.

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1 day ago

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January 1, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to the first Lion Links of 2025, Mane Landers. I hope that you safely enjoyed ringing in the new year last night. My wife and I had a nice quiet evening at home, but there was nowhere else I wanted to be. As you saw from our Top 10 Moments of 2024, it was quite a year for those of us who support Orlando City, the Orlando Pride, and OCB. Here’s hoping that 2025 brings us more of the same, or even better.

Let’s get to the links.

All the Goals!

You might think that it’s time to look forward, but sometimes it’s more fun to look back. That’s especially true when you look back at all of the amazing goals that brought the Orlando Pride two trophies. Whether it was a blast by Barbra Banda, Marta breaking defenders’ ankles with her slick moves, or Summer Yates stealing the ball and the spotlight, they were all enjoyable. Here’s your chance to experience the magic again.

Get to Know Orlando City’s Photographer

If you ever take the time to look at the photo credit information on the feature photo of our articles, you will often see that they were taken by Orlando City and Orlando Pride photographer Mark Thor — as was the photo for this article. Now, we can learn more about Thor in this feature from The Community Paper. He has taken some very memorable photos over the years for the club. Photographers like Thor and our own Dan MacDonald are often taken for granted, but we appreciate their work.

USMNT Players on the Move from Club Teams

Several USMNT players are either on the move or potentially on the move in the new year. The Seattle Sounders have a deal to acquire Jesus Ferreira from FC Dallas. The deal is still pending final approval and the paperwork. Fellow USMNT striker Brandon Vazquez is leaving Monterrey per mutual agreement. As of now, Vazquez doesn’t have a landing spot though an MLS side is a possibility.

USMNT defender Bryan Reynolds may be moving to Czech side Sparta Prague from Belgian Pro League club Westerlo. Elsewhere, PSV’s Ricardo Pepi is getting interest from other clubs in Europe, and Gio Reyna might finally move on from Borussia Dortmund. There are big things ahead for USMNT players.

2025 Predictions and Resolutions

As the year begins, there are plenty who want to make predictions in the world of soccer. Some are really stepping out on a limb by saying Inter Miami will win MLS Cup, Neymar will make the move to MLS, and more. On the U.S. Soccer front, Mauricio Pochettino needs to dominate Concacaf, Emma Hayes should keep on winning, and Christian Pulisic should embrace the whole Captain America thing.

Free Kicks

That will do it for today. I hope you know how much we appreciate you reading and listening to our work. If you’re looking for a way to support our endeavors in 2025, please check out our Buy Me a Coffee subscription service. Vamos Orlando!

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