While Orlando City has made the playoffs in each of the last five seasons, including this one, things have been a mixed bag for the Lions once they’ve gotten there. OCSC has only advanced past the first round on two occasions, with the first coming in 2020 by eliminating New York City FC on penalties, and the second occurring in 2023, thanks to a pair of 1-0 wins over Nashville SC.

In 2021 and 2022, Orlando was eliminated at the first hurdle, which came against Nashville in the former season and CF Montreal in the latter. Across all four of the Lions’ postseason campaigns, there’s one constant theme that needs to change — goal scoring, or rather a lack of it.

It might be easy to forget in light of Orlando finally banishing its streak of missing the postseason, and then starting a new streak of making the playoffs five years straight, but the Lions have never scored more than one goal in a playoff game, and they’ve been shut out on two occasions. OCSC has played seven postseason games in the last four years and has only scored five goals, for an average of 0.71 goals per game. Yes, it’s a relatively small sample size, but that is…not great.

To refresh memories, Orlando’s maiden playoff game took place in 2020, and finished in a 1-1 draw with NYCFC, but the good guys got through on penalties courtesy of the Hand of Godrigo. That postseason journey ended the following game, courtesy of a 3-1 defeat to the New England Revolution. In 2021, a brutal 3-1 loss on the road to a Nashville team that gave Orlando all sorts of hell that year ended the dance early, while in 2022 the Lions dropped a 2-0 decision on the road to CF Montreal.

Last year, Orlando got a measure of revenge by beating Nashville home and away 1-0 to get through to the second round, but couldn’t make home field advantage count against the Columbus Crew, and fell 2-0 to the eventual champions in extra time after Rodrigo Schlegel was sent off late in regulation.

The New York City draw saw Orlando record 16 shots but only put three of them on target, and the goal came courtesy of a Nani penalty kick. In the following match, Orlando outshot New England 11-9 but only put three shots on target to the Revs’ six. In the 2021 loss to Nashville, the Lions matched the hosts’ shot total with nine apiece, but again only recorded two shots on target to the opposition’s six. The 2022 loss to Montreal was a particularly painful affair, as Orlando’s lack of regular-season goals carried over into the postseason, and Montreal put two of its 11 shots on goal and scored from both, while the Lions only attempted five and didn’t put any on frame.

In the first playoff game last year against Nashville, Orlando City took a whopping 25 shots but only put five on target, and it took a wondergoal from Wilder Cartagena to get OCSC on the board. In the away leg, Ivan Angulo capitalized on an early mistake in the Nashville box and opened the scoring, but the Lions once again outshot their hosts 16-10 and put five shots on target to their four but could only muster the lone goal. Their season then ended against Columbus in a game in which a red card hampered Orlando greatly, but didn’t prevent the Lions from creating 13 chances, with several good ones coming on the break. Only three of those resulted in shots on target though, and none found a way past Patrick Schulte.

That makes a total of 95 shots taken in seven games with 21 on target and five goals. Orlando has put 22% of its shots on target and scored on 23% of those shots on target. Essentially, creating chances, or at least taking shots, hasn’t been the issue (usually). The problem has been getting shots on target and making the goalkeeper work. Failing to do so makes it hard to actually put the ball in the back of the net. Scoring hasn’t been a difficulty for Orlando in 2024, as the Lions have bagged 59 goals in 34 games, which is a club record. At first glance, OCSC is well-positioned to end its postseason scoring difficulties.

Unfortunately, Orlando drew a pretty tricky first-round opponent in Charlotte FC. Dean Smith’s team has the second stingiest defense in the league with only 37 goals given up in 34 games, which is good for a 1.08 goals-per-game average. Charlotte doesn’t score a ton of goals either, scoring only 46 during the regular season, but Sunday’s visitors put a strong season together by being tough to score against. Orlando put two goals past them in each of the meetings between the two teams this year, and doing so again would be a great start to getting out of the first round.

To do that, the Lions are probably going to need to be good in the proverbial “halfcourt” against a team that will likely look to sit deep and be difficult to play through. Passing will need to be sharp and quick, movement will need to be creative, and players will need to make the right decisions and execute them well. We’ve seen this year that the Lions are capable of doing all those things, and if they can put it all together when it matters, then they’ve got a great chance of advancing past the first round.

History is against the Lions, but there’s no time like the present when it comes to writing a new chapter.

Welcome to Friday, Mane Landers. Congratulations on making it through another week. Hopefully, you’re in the type of job that allows you to have weekends off. If not, then I share your pain. Regardless, there’s plenty of soccer coming up this weekend to watch, including your very own Orlando City. Before we get started today, remember to schedule some time to celebrate, as today marks the anniversary of the USL announcing Orlando City joining the league. OCSC started play in 2011, won a bunch of trophies, later joined MLS, and the rest is history.

Now, let’s get to the links.

Orlando City Will Host FC Series

Inter&Co Stadium will be the site of a special edition of the FC Series in January. In addition to Orlando City, three Brazilian clubs will take part: Cruzeiro, São Paulo, and Atlético Mineiro. The competition will consist of three matches, with Orlando City playing Atlético Mineiro in the third match. The event will celebrate the 10-year anniversary of the series going back to its Florida Cup roots.

USWNT Defeats Iceland

The USWNT won the first of two friendlies against Iceland with a 3-1 victory Thursday night in Austin, TX. The U.S. struck first on an excellent shot by Alyssa Thompson, who netted her first international goal. Iceland equalized in the second half. Jaedyn Shaw gave the U.S. a 2-1 lead late, and Sophia Smith added another goal minutes later. Emily Sonnett earned her 100th cap, while Hal Hershfelt and Yazmeen Ryan made their debuts. Sadly, Emma Hayes didn’t see fit to give the Orlando Pride’s Emily Sams her debut. Hopefully, that is remedied in Sunday’s match.

MLSPA Releases Salary List

The MLS Players Association has released salary data for all the players in MLS. Unsurprisingly, Lionel Messi tops the list at $20.5 million which is more than the entirety of Orlando City’s roster put together. The only surprising thing is that Inter Miami doesn’t have more than two names in the Top 10. Luis Muriel is Orlando City’s highest paid player, followed by Facundo Torres. Duncan McGuire rounds out the top three for the Lions, thanks to his new contract.

Dike Returns from Injury

Former Orlando City striker Daryl Dike is finally making his way back from a ruptured Achilles tendon injury suffered last season. His time at West Bromwich Albion has been marred with injuries that have kept him on the sidelines for the majority of his tenure with the club. Dike is training with the club’s Under-21 squad. He’ll next train with the senior squad before getting playing time with the Under-21s and finally making his return to play for the senior team. We wish him luck.

Free Kicks

• The USMNT will be the subject of a multi-part documentary series produced by HBO Sports Documentaries. It will be about the preparation of the team heading into the 2026 World Cup.
• Melchie Dumornay from Haiti and Adalberto Carrasquilla from Panama have been named 2023-2024 Concacaf Women’s and Men’s Players of the Year, respectively. Congratulations to them both.
• The Seattle Sounders have signed Head Coach Brian Schmetzer to a contract extension. The club has not announced specific details on the multi-year contract.
• Utah Royals FC took the “interim” tag off now head coach Jimmy Coenraets. Much like the Orlando Pride’s Seb Hines, Coenraets started out as an assistant for the club.
• Alex Morgan received the key to the city from San Diego officials for her athletic contributions and advocacy for equal pay in women’s sports.
• I’ll leave you with these sentiments from Haley Carter. Well said.

That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for Orlando City’s upcoming playoff match against Charlotte FC on Sunday. Vamos Orlando!

Soccer is a game that has cheer leaders but not cheerleaders, so there is usually no opportunity to hear people chanting out “two, four, six, eight, who do we appreciate?” at soccer matches. In this article, however, we are going to offer some appreciation, and look back at a two, a four, a six and….an 11 that we appreciate.

Let’s start with the two, and take a look at midfield tandem of César Araújo and Wilder Cartagena. Orlando City’s preferred partnership started 23 games alongside one another in all competitions in 2024, and in those games Orlando City went 13-4-6.

Taking a quick look at the final MLS standings, the 2.00 points per game in MLS play that Orlando City averaged when Araújo and Cartagena started together in the midfield would have ranked only behind Inter Miami’s 2.18 points per game across all 29 MLS teams and was 31% better than Orlando City’s actual final tally of 1.53 points per game (15-12-7). Doing the math, if the Lions were 11-4-3 with Araújo and Cartagena starting together (including six straight wins in their most recent six starts) and 15-12-7 overall, then they must have been 4-8-4 when it was a different starting midfield two, and 4-8-4 is a paltry 1.00 points per game, something closer to a team in the bottom third of the league. Orlando City’s lineup with their top midfield partnership was equivalent to a team on a top-two pace, a one-two punch that was frequently too powerful for an opponent to handle.

Moving on from two to four, let’s take a look at Orlando City’s back lines throughout the season to see which combination of four performed the foremost (ok, I’ll stop) throughout the season. There was a period of time early in the season when the Lions deployed a three-man back line with two wingbacks for a few games, but once they got everyone back from international matches and back to health they have rolled with the four-man back line ever since.

On the season Orlando City has played 41 games (34 in MLS, four in Concacaf Champions Cup, and three in Leagues Cup), so there have been 3,690 total minutes played by defensive groupings so far. Here are the six groupings that played at least 5% of the minutes, and how they have performed this season (own goals scored by Orlando City’s opponents have been excluded, players listed left to right on how they played positionally):

Interestingly, the three-man back line of Rodrigo Schlegel, Cartagena, and David Brekalo has the best goals against per 90 minutes rating, giving up less than one goal per game, but the team struggled to score while in this lineup — odd since a three-man back line allows for seven players to play higher up the field, as opposed to only six when in the standard four-man back line. I chalk a lot of this up to it being an unfamiliar formation and one that was played early in the season when the team was trying to figure out how to mix the attacking players together, rather than an issue caused by a three-man back line.

We are focusing on the fours here though, and while the teams preferred back line clearly appears to be Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Schlegel, and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, the data points to two other groupings as ones that played at least 250 minutes together and had better goal differentials. The Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Kyle Smith back line did not debut until September, but it was effective against Charlotte (late game), Dallas (starting four), Philadelphia (starting four), and Cincinnati (starting four), and had the second-best goals against per 90 minutes rating of the most used lineups.

The Smith, Jansson, Schlegel, and Thórhallsson back line played together in nine different games — a mix of four starts and five games where they subbed into that grouping. While it was not a grouping that was difficult to break down and score against, as evidenced by the 1.66 goals against per 90 minutes, they were +4 in only 379 minutes together, so the Lions were banging in the goals at a rate of 2.61 goals scored per 90 minutes.

Sometimes the best defense is a good offense, but when we are trying to find the best defensive group of four, we want the best defense to be the best defense, so it looks like it would be either Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith or Santos, Jansson, Brekalo, and Thórhallsson. Alas, we never saw Santos, Jansson, Brekalo, and Smith together during the season, so there is no data around that grouping, and with Brekalo being seemingly the forgotten man in recent weeks, I do not think we are going to see that lineup in the playoffs either, unless there is an injury or a card situation.

For my four I’m going to go with the data, and while I expect that Thórhallsson will probably start over Smith in the next match, the data says the lineup should read Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith, with their low goals against and high goal differential.

We will yell out fore and drive our way over to six, and move from the defensive grouping to the offensive one. It is rather amazing how many different offensive combinations have played at least one minute this season. By my count, there were 107 unique offensive groupings that the Lions utilized throughout the 41 games.

While on the defensive side, Orlando City settled into a lineup that ended up playing almost exactly one-third of all minutes, on the offensive side, the most common lineup just barely reached half that number, and the six lineups that played the most together did not even play half of the total minutes available this season (players listed alphabetically, as I could not come up with an easy way to depict the offensive formation in a table).

No other attacking grouping even played one game’s worth of minutes together all season, but I do want to include the statistics from three additional groupings, because as you see here they were prolific, albeit in small samples:

I do not expect that any of these groupings would actually continue to score at this rate if they played more minutes together, but the two lineups with Araújo and Cartagena seem like lineups that the Lions could use if trailing, and even the bottom row where Nico Lodeiro would be in for Araújo could be possible as well, since Cartagena is generally more of an offensive threat than Araújo if the coaching staff decided to move to one holding midfielder or if they needed to choose one of the two to sub out.

Going back to the commonly used lineups, the question still remains on whether the group of five (Ivan Angulo, Araújo, Cartagena, Martin Ojeda and Facundo Torres) should play more minutes with Ramiro Enrique or Duncan McGuire. The data says they are more efficient with McGuire, to the tune of an additional half a goal per 90 minutes, but most of the McGuire minutes with this group have been played later in the match, when Orlando City was already ahead and the opposition was tired and chasing an equalizer. Enrique’s minutes have nearly all been as a starter since mid-summer, so he generally faces a fresh defense and an even scoreline, so the defenders are not taking as many risks.

Two lineups that are not in either of these tables, because they were each used for only 30 minutes this season, are Araújo, Cartagena, Enrique, Luis Muriel, Ojeda, and Torres and Araújo, Cartagena, Enrique, McGuire, Muriel, and Torres, and they each scored one goal in their time together for a goals-per-90-minutes average of 3.00. Both of those lineups do not contain Angulo, which sacrifices his speed and recovery ability to get back on defense, but they do include every primary creative attacking player except Lodeiro. The samples are too small to be quantitatively confident in their success, but the qualitative side of looking at those names and thinking about how they could line up is one that is exciting to consider with the wealth of attacking talent that they possess.

All of that said, I am going to to cheat a little bit and choose for my six to be Angulo, Araújo, Cartagena, Duncmiro Enriguire, Ojeda, and Torres, a grouping that is +10 for the season in goal differential and averages 1.79 goals scored per 90 minutes while only giving up 0.85 goals scored per 90 minutes. The group with Enrique is better defensively, giving up 0.59 goals per 90 minutes, as compared to 1.33 for the group with McGuire, while the group with McGuire is better offensively, scoring 2.12 goals per 90 minutes, as compared to 1.61 with Enrique.

Alright, so we have our two, our four and our six, and as promised we are going to skip the eight and go to the 11. If we look at the full 11-player lineup that we chose (using Pedro Gallese as the goalkeeper), we had a back line of Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Smith; holding midfielders Araújo and Cartagena; attacking midfielders Angulo, Ojeda, and Torres; and Enrique or McGuire at striker. That lineup played together only twice all season, both with Enrique as the striker, and they were +3 during the 110 minutes that they were on the field together, scoring three goals and giving up zero.

It is hard to lose when you give up zero goals, though Orlando City did manage to do so against Cruz Azul (kind of, it was a shootout loss after a draw), but when you average scoring 2.45 goals per 90 minutes and give up 0.00 goals per 90 minutes, that sounds like a winning lineup.

In fact, of all the lineups that played together for more than 75 minutes this season, that lineup does have the best goal differential per 90 minutes. Just as with some of the attacking groupings, there were some lineups that had better goal differentials per 90 minutes in a limited sample size of minutes, but in looking at the groups that played the most minutes, it is the 11-man group from the previous paragraph that performed the best per 90 minutes.

The 11-man lineup that was used the most was Gallese as goalkeeper; a back line of Santos, Jansson, Schlegel, and Thórhallsson; holding midfielders Araújo and Cartagena; attacking midfielders Angulo, Ojeda, and Torres; and Enrique as striker. That group was +7 for the season in nearly 300 minutes together, a goal differential of +2.17 per 90 minutes, which is also Borat-level very nice.

While it was a rough beginning to the season for Orlando City, as the year went on the Lions settled into lineups and rotations that maximized their abilities, as evidenced by their season-ending run of 11-3-3 in all competitions since the calendar turned to July. Óscar Pareja has identified his preferred lineup, and the data and the gut feelings he has around who to play are nearly exactly matched in terms of playing the right players in combination with one another.

Whether it is the two, the four, the six or the 11, Pareja knows who to play, I reckon.

Vamos Orlando!