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Orlando City’s Offense Off to Good Start in 2024 Playoffs

A look at Orlando City’s playoff scoring, or lack thereof, over its MLS years and an evaluation of whether this playoff run will be better.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

As noted in the recap of Orlando City’s first playoff game against Charlotte, the Lions scored more than one goal in a postseason playoff game for the first time in their MLS history. However, the Lions struggled to score in their seven other MLS playoff games, getting shut out twice and scoring one goal in the other five matches.

Even with the low-scoring output, the team advanced one round in 2020 and again in 2023, but the Lions have yet reach the conference final. A quick look at their performances in the regular season, as opposed to the playoffs, shows just how stark the offensive struggles have been (I am aware that points are not a thing in the playoffs, but just pretend that they were for comparison purposes, so even though Orlando City won in 2020 against New York City FC, it was a draw after 90 minutes that eventually went to penalties. As such, I called it a draw for average points purposes):

You can see from the data that while the team’s defense is averaging roughly the same amount of goals given up per game across all playoff games, the offense is down 56% in terms of average goals scored per game. I am not someone who believes in teams carrying history with them onto the field, as we are beaten over our heads with when the Yankees take the field in baseball and the announcers intimate that because the team won a lot of titles in the first half of the 20th century, that somehow matters in 2024 (altogether unsurprising note — I despise the Yankees), but in this situation I think it is worth looking at the last few years, because it is the same head coach and the team plays a similar formation and in very similar ways.

The players from 2020 are different than today (leading scorer: the Money Badger, Chris Mueller, and of 2024’s roster only two current players (Pedro Gallese and Robin Jansson) started in more than half of their games), but the reality from that year, and every year, is that the teams played all season long include teams at the top, middle, and bottom of the league, but the opponents in the playoffs include some in the middle but are mostly at the top.

With a higher caliber of opponent on the field, the Lions have performed similarly defensively but have struggled offensively, and the chart below shows some of the reasons why (red shading means the value is lower (even barely) in the playoffs as compared to during the regular season):

Insert usual disclaimer about non-penalty expected goals (npxG) being a metric that is more about shot locations than if the player really should have been expected to score, but regardless, while the red to white split in the table on the right is not drastic (11-9 red to white), some of the gaps in efficiency are large. The playoff stats on the right are full of small sample sizes, and as Billy Beane of Moneyball fame said “my (expletive) doesn’t work in the playoffs,” meaning that in small sample sizes, anything can happen, and season-long trends can disappear. The 2024 playoff stats, albeit through only one game, look good though, so perhaps this season will be the one when everything goes right offensively instead of wrong.

Whether the reason is offensive struggles, playing against better defenses, or some kind of mental block for playoff games, the reality is that prior to the home game against Charlotte on Sunday, Orlando City had never scored more than one goal in a playoff game. But, now the Lions have done that, and I do not want to take full credit, but it was my daughter’s first-ever game in attendance when they did so…I am taking full credit. (Sorry, actual players who played in the game.)

This year’s team scored the most regular-season goals of any Orlando City squad in the MLS era, and in my opinion, the Lions have the best collection of overall offensive talent of any team in club history, so much so that they bring three players off the bench (Duncan McGuire, Luis Muriel, and Nico Lodeiro) who combined for 37 goal contributions this season in MLS regular-season play. Now that the team has achieved one playoff game with at least two goals, the next offensive goal target will be multiple playoff games with multiple goals — hopefully starting as soon as in the match at Charlotte on Friday.

The last two seasons have been full of achievements for Orlando City in the team’s MLS era, and with two more wins (though let’s not get ahead of ourselves), the team would add another achievement to that list — the Lions’ first-ever trip to the conference final. Advancing in the playoffs does not require scoring goals (provided you hold your opponent scoreless too and win your shootouts), but scoring goals is fun, and fun is good (doctor’s orders, right Dr. Seuss?). And I believe that this team has the offensive ability to continue to have fun and advance in the upcoming weeks.

Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/28/25

Wilder Cartagena injury reports, Orlando City B’s 2025 schedule, Americans in the UEFA Champions League, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Good morning, everyone! It was nice to get a first look at the 2025 edition of Orlando City on Saturday, but the experience was sullied by an injury that we’ll speak more about shortly. Regardless, we continue to march towards the start of the season with a closed-door scrimmage against Forge FC up next on the docket today. We have a ton to discuss this morning, so let’s get into the links.

Wilder Cartagena Injury Reports

Wilder Cartagena exited Orlando City’s preseason game against Atletico Mineiro with a non-contact injury, naturally leading to fears about what the injury would be. While the club has not released a diagnosis at the time of writing, reports are emerging that the Peruvian midfielder suffered an injury to his Achilles tendon. There are some reports that go as far as saying that he will undergo surgery soon. If true, Cartagena could be sidelined for anywhere from a few months or up to a year, depending on the severity of the injury. We’ll keep you updated as more news becomes available.

Orlando City B Schedule Released

In much more pleasant news, the MLS NEXT Pro schedule was released, which means that we have OCB’s roadmap for the upcoming season. The Young Lions will get the season started at home on Sunday, March 9 against Columbus Crew 2 with a 7 p.m. kickoff. OCB closes the season at home against FC Cincinnati 2 on Decision Day, which will be on Sunday, Oct. 5. The team will play 14 home games, 13 away games, and one at the neutral site of IMG Academy in Bradenton. Most of the games will be streamed on MLS Season Pass on Apple TV, with the rest appearing on mlsnextpro.com.

Americans in Champions League Action

The UEFA Champions League will have its final matchday of the league phase on Wednesday, and there are a lot of Americans who will be competing. Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, and AC Milan can guarantee a place in the top eight of the standings with a win when they welcome Dinamo Zagreb to San Siro. Ricardo Pepi, Richy Ledezma, and Esmir Bajraktarević also have a lot to play for with PSV Eindhoven, as a loss or draw risks the club being overtaken and eliminated from the competition. Aside from Juventus, all other teams featuring Americans are placed anywhere from 14th-24th, so the stakes are high during this week’s action.

NWSL News Roundup

Monday was a busy day for the National Women’s Soccer League, so let’s get caught up. The Houston Dash acquired former Orlando Pride forward Messiah Bright in a trade with Angel City FC. The Dash sent $100,000 in inter-league transfer funds to Angel City in exchange, and that number could increase by up to $50,000 with incentives. The Chicago Stars noted that Mallory Swanson has not joined the team for the start of camp due to personal reasons. Jenna Nighswonger has reportedly been sold to Arsenal for a fee of $100,000.

Free Kicks

  • Orlando City went old school to bring us a look at Monday morning’s training session.
  • The Pride meanwhile, opted for a more traditional route.
  • Congratulations are in order for the team of Baby Lions that became the PreMLS NAC Champions for the 2013 age group!
  • Former Lion and cowboy hat enthusiast Benji Michel is training with Nashville SC.

That’s all I’ve got for this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Javier Otero Has the Chance to Prove Himself in 2025

Young goalkeeper Javier Otero can prove himself at the MLS level in 2025.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City sent backup goalkeeper Mason Stajduhar to Real Salt Lake on Jan. 15 for $50,000 in General Allocation Money and RSL’s natural second-round pick in the 2026 MLS SuperDraft. The move resulted in the end of the Lions’ longest-tenured player, but provides an opportunity for another.

Stajduhar initially signed for the first team on Nov. 9, 2015, as a Homegrown Player. He was largely out of sight for the first few years of his professional career, not even appearing for Orlando City B. However, he eventually became the primary backup to the starter Pedro Gallese and showed his ability. His appearances primarily came early in U.S. Open Cup games or when the primary starter was away on international duty with Peru, but he played well when given the opportunity.

While Stajduhar never made more than six appearances in a season for the MLS side, he had the opportunity to prove himself and his development. It’s hard to say whether the 27-year-old will get more playing time with his new club, but his departure opens the door for another Homegrown goalkeeper.

Born in Venezuela, Javier Otero moved to the United States with his family and joined the Orlando City Academy in 2017 as a 14-year-old. He signed with OCB in 2020, backing up Austin Aviza, and became the regular starter for the Young Lions in 2022 at 17 years of age.

Otero has often been a lifesaver for the Young Lions, being forced to make an incredibly high number of saves. During his first season as a starter, the young shot stopper made a league-high 100 saves from 130 shots on target.

Otero was signed to a Homegrown contract on July 10, 2023, beginning his tenure as a first-team player. He remained with OCB since he was third string, but was forced away from the reserve side when Stajduhar suffered a broken tibia and fibula in his right leg during a June 28, 2024 game in New York. Otero finished the contest, conceding three goals on a difficult night, and backed up Gallese for the remainder of the season.

The injury to Stajduhar left Otero in a bit of a predicament. Since he had to be with the first team as the primary backup, he was unable to play for OCB. As a result, the substitution appearance against New York City FC was his final action in 2024.

Moving Stajduhar and elevating Otero to the primary backup makes sense for the Lions. Gallese doesn’t seem to want to leave and Orlando City isn’t eager for his departure. However, eventually, the 34-year-old Peruvian’s time in Orlando will end and the club needs his replacement. Otero is five years younger than Stajduhar, giving him more time to develop for when Gallese does depart.

The brief appearance by Otero in 2024 clearly isn’t enough to determine if he can play at the MLS level. While he likely won’t play substantial minutes in 2025, he’ll probably have at least five starts throughout the season. This might be during a less important competition than the league or while Gallese is away on international duty.

Gallese is currently on his option year, meaning he’ll be out of contract following the 2025 season unless the club reaches an extension agreement. At this point, it’s hard to see him leaving so soon. But if he does, Orlando City needs to know what it has behind him.

As for Otero, this is his opportunity to prove himself at a higher level. He was fantastic in MLS NEXT Pro action, but MLS competition will provide a much greater challenge than the third division league. This season will give Otero the opportunity to prove to the club and himself that he can take over the number one spot one day, something the higher-ups clearly believe he can do.

The 2025 season will be an interesting one for the Lions. They made the Eastern Conference final last year and are bringing back most of their roster. Despite losing the club’s all-time leading goal scorer, expectations are high that they can match or surpass last year‘s accomplishments.

The upcoming season will also tell us a lot about the future. The departure of Facundo Torres means other players will have to step up. While Gallese will spend the 2025 campaign with the Lions, it’s unclear how long he’ll remain. Otero’s appearances with the first team, no matter their length, will indicate whether he can fill those large shoes when the time comes.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 1/27/25

Orlando CIty wins first preseason match, Naomi Girma completes move to Chelsea, MLS transfer news, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I’ve been staying busy working and covering high school sports. Besides that, I was able to watch a few Premier League matches over the weekend. Let’s all wish a happy belated birthday to Orlando Pride midfielder Angelina, who turned 25 on Sunday. We have plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Orlando City Defeats Atletico Mineiro in Penalties After Scoreless Draw

In its first preseason match of 2025, Orlando City edged past Atletico Mineiro 6-5 on penalties after a scoreless draw at Inter&Co Stadium in the FC Series. The Lions had to go through seven rounds of penalties to defeat Atletico Mineiro and clinch the Inter&Co Trophy. Both teams had chances throughout the match, but after 90 minutes of play, the game went to penalties. After being tied 5-5 after six rounds, Joran Gerbet scored in the seventh round andPedro Gallese saved Bruno Fuchs’s shot to win the shootout for the Lions. Orlando City will be in Mexico for camp for the next week and will face Forge FC. The Lions will take on Inter Miami in Tampa on Feb. 14 at Raymond James Stadium.

Lions Reportedly Shift Focus Away From Marco Pasalic

According to Tom Bogert, Orlando City is reportedly shifting their focus from Croatian winger Marco Pasalic to other transfer targets, as the 24-year-old is undecided about his future.

The Lions were reportedly in talks to sign Pasalic from HNK Rijeka last week, as they look to fill their open Designated Player spot following the record-breaking transfer of forward Facundo Torres to Palmeiras last month. The clock is ticking for the Lions to sign a new Designated Player, with Orlando’s season opener set for Feb. 22.

Naomi Girma Completes Record Transfer Move to Chelsea

United States Women’s National Team and former San Diego Wave defender Naomi Girma has completed her transfer to Chelsea in a record-breaking deal. The transfer fee is reportedly agreed at $1.1 million, making her the first player to break the $1 million mark in women’s soccer. Girma signed a four-and-a-half-year deal with Chelsea after three seasons with the Wave. She has 44 caps for the USWNT and was an integral part of the squad that won a gold medal at the 2024 Olympics in Paris.

MLS Transfer Roundup

Major League Soccer had another busy weekend with some notable transfer moves. The Chicago Fire signed midfielder Rominigue Kouame on loan from La Liga 2 side Cadiz CF for the 2025 MLS season, with an option to purchase. The Fire also transferred midfielder Federico Navarro to Argentine first division side Club Atletico Rosario Central for an undisclosed transfer fee. FC Cincinnati is reportedly in negotiations to sign center back Gilberto Flores.

LAFC has agreed to transfer midfielder Mateusz Bogusz to Cruz Azul for a fee reportedly over $10 million. The New York Red Bulls have transferred forward Dante Vanzeir to KAA Gent in Belgium. The Red Bulls have also reportedly expressed interest in signing Tottenham Hotspur forward Timo Werner, who is on loan from Red Bull Leipzig.

Free Kicks

  • Former Lion Daryl Dike is close to full fitness and is back training as he looks set to return to action for West Brom. Dike has been recovering from a ruptured Achilles injury from last season that has kept him sidelined for almost a year.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

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