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Orlando City’s Offense Off to Good Start in 2024 Playoffs

A look at Orlando City’s playoff scoring, or lack thereof, over its MLS years and an evaluation of whether this playoff run will be better.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

As noted in the recap of Orlando City’s first playoff game against Charlotte, the Lions scored more than one goal in a postseason playoff game for the first time in their MLS history. However, the Lions struggled to score in their seven other MLS playoff games, getting shut out twice and scoring one goal in the other five matches.

Even with the low-scoring output, the team advanced one round in 2020 and again in 2023, but the Lions have yet reach the conference final. A quick look at their performances in the regular season, as opposed to the playoffs, shows just how stark the offensive struggles have been (I am aware that points are not a thing in the playoffs, but just pretend that they were for comparison purposes, so even though Orlando City won in 2020 against New York City FC, it was a draw after 90 minutes that eventually went to penalties. As such, I called it a draw for average points purposes):

You can see from the data that while the team’s defense is averaging roughly the same amount of goals given up per game across all playoff games, the offense is down 56% in terms of average goals scored per game. I am not someone who believes in teams carrying history with them onto the field, as we are beaten over our heads with when the Yankees take the field in baseball and the announcers intimate that because the team won a lot of titles in the first half of the 20th century, that somehow matters in 2024 (altogether unsurprising note — I despise the Yankees), but in this situation I think it is worth looking at the last few years, because it is the same head coach and the team plays a similar formation and in very similar ways.

The players from 2020 are different than today (leading scorer: the Money Badger, Chris Mueller, and of 2024’s roster only two current players (Pedro Gallese and Robin Jansson) started in more than half of their games), but the reality from that year, and every year, is that the teams played all season long include teams at the top, middle, and bottom of the league, but the opponents in the playoffs include some in the middle but are mostly at the top.

With a higher caliber of opponent on the field, the Lions have performed similarly defensively but have struggled offensively, and the chart below shows some of the reasons why (red shading means the value is lower (even barely) in the playoffs as compared to during the regular season):

Insert usual disclaimer about non-penalty expected goals (npxG) being a metric that is more about shot locations than if the player really should have been expected to score, but regardless, while the red to white split in the table on the right is not drastic (11-9 red to white), some of the gaps in efficiency are large. The playoff stats on the right are full of small sample sizes, and as Billy Beane of Moneyball fame said “my (expletive) doesn’t work in the playoffs,” meaning that in small sample sizes, anything can happen, and season-long trends can disappear. The 2024 playoff stats, albeit through only one game, look good though, so perhaps this season will be the one when everything goes right offensively instead of wrong.

Whether the reason is offensive struggles, playing against better defenses, or some kind of mental block for playoff games, the reality is that prior to the home game against Charlotte on Sunday, Orlando City had never scored more than one goal in a playoff game. But, now the Lions have done that, and I do not want to take full credit, but it was my daughter’s first-ever game in attendance when they did so…I am taking full credit. (Sorry, actual players who played in the game.)

This year’s team scored the most regular-season goals of any Orlando City squad in the MLS era, and in my opinion, the Lions have the best collection of overall offensive talent of any team in club history, so much so that they bring three players off the bench (Duncan McGuire, Luis Muriel, and Nico Lodeiro) who combined for 37 goal contributions this season in MLS regular-season play. Now that the team has achieved one playoff game with at least two goals, the next offensive goal target will be multiple playoff games with multiple goals — hopefully starting as soon as in the match at Charlotte on Friday.

The last two seasons have been full of achievements for Orlando City in the team’s MLS era, and with two more wins (though let’s not get ahead of ourselves), the team would add another achievement to that list — the Lions’ first-ever trip to the conference final. Advancing in the playoffs does not require scoring goals (provided you hold your opponent scoreless too and win your shootouts), but scoring goals is fun, and fun is good (doctor’s orders, right Dr. Seuss?). And I believe that this team has the offensive ability to continue to have fun and advance in the upcoming weeks.

Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/5/24

Orlando City announces preseason match, how the Orlando Pride turned things around, Americans in midweek action, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Tuesday, everyone. We have a massive week ahead of us, as the Orlando Pride take on the Chicago Red Stars in the NWSL playoffs on Friday. That will be followed up by a pivotal Game 3 for Orlando City against Charlotte FC on Saturday. Both matches will be at home, so suffice it to say we have a lot going on around these parts. As usual, we have lots to talk through today, so let’s get into the links.

Orlando City Announces Friendly

Orlando City has announced that the club will play a preseason match against Inter Miami in Tampa on Valentine’s Day, Feb. 14. The game will take place at Raymond James Stadium at 7:30 p.m., with tickets going on sale to the general public on Nov. 14. There will also be a pregame fan festival set up outside the stadium, which is free if you have a ticket. The decision to play Miami in a preseason game isn’t a surprising one, as it involves minimal travel for both clubs, and a chance to capitalize on the box office draw of Lionel Messi. It is a little surprising that the decision was made to host the game at Raymond James Stadium rather than Orlando’s Camping World Stadium, but it’s possible that the latter wasn’t available, or that there was a desire to capitalize on the additional gate money from the extra 15,000 seats at Raymond James.

How the Pride Escaped the Cellar

In a season that featured several teams who played outstanding campaigns, the Orlando Pride still managed to finish first in the National Women’s Soccer League. It’s a feat made even more impressive when considering how the club has historically struggled, but the change didn’t happen overnight. The rebuild really got underway in 2021, which was when a series of high profile exits and trades began to take place, which would eventually allow the Pride to do a lot of maneuvering in the transfer market. It was a long process though, and it took the arrival of Haley Carter in the front office and Seb Hines as the head coach for things to really start coming together. It’s been an all-around effort, but one that paid off with a first-place finish this season.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans playing this week, so make sure you’ve got everything marked down on your calendar. UEFA Champions League action returns tomorrow, as Malik Tillman, Ricardo Pepi, and Richie Ledezma will take on Girona with PSV Eindhoven. Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, and AC Milan face Real Madrid, and Tim Weah, Weston McKennie, and Juventus hit the road to take on Weah’s former club, Lille. European action then continues on Thursday as Tanner Tessmann and Lyon face Hoffenheim on the road in the Europa League, and Johnny Cardoso and Real Betis host Celje in the Conference League.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

As always seems to be the case, there are a number of transfer rumors floating around. First up, Spanish outlet Marca says that if Vinicius Jr. becomes available then Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain would be interested in signing him. This comes amid reports that the Brazilian is considering a move to Saudi Arabia. Speaking of Chelsea, Enzo Fernandez could seek an exit from the Blues reportedly due to not being favored by boss Enzo Maresca, with Barcelona and Inter Milan as possible destinations. Finally, Eintracht Frankfurt star Omar Marmoush is reportedly attracting interest from some of Europe’s big clubs, with Bayern Munich and Liverpool both interested in signing him.

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That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/4/24

Orlando City falls to Charlotte FC in penalty shootout, Orlando Pride defeat the Seattle Reign, Megan Montefusco retires and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I covered high school cross country state semifinals over the weekend, and I’m getting ready to cover a high school soccer playoff match later this week. We have plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Lions Lose Penalty Shootout to Charlotte FC

Orlando City fell 3-1 on penalties to Charlotte FC at Bank of America Stadium on Friday night after playing to a scoreless draw in Game 2 of the MLS Cup playoffs. Orlando’s offense struggled to create anything throughout the match in the attack. The best chance came late in the second half when Facundo Torres thought he had scored the game-winner for Orlando, but the assistant referee deemed him to be offside. In the penalty shootout, Luis Muriel was the only Lion to find the back of the net. Nico Lodeiro and Duncan McGuire had their penalty kicks saved by Charlotte FC goalkeeper Kristijan Kahlina, while Robin Jansson’s kick sailed over the net. The Lions will host Charlotte FC in Game 3 at Inter&Co Stadium on Saturday with a spot in the Eastern Conference semifinals on the line.

Orlando Pride Defeat the Seattle Reign in Regular Season Finale

The Orlando Pride snapped their two-match losing streak and defeated the Seattle Reign 3-2 to close out the 2024 NWSL regular season. Ally Watt, Kerry Abello, and Marta all scored for the Pride. Even though the Reign fought back to keep it close, Orlando held on for the win. The Pride finished the regular season first in the NWSL standings with 60 points. The Pride will take on the Chicago Red Stars in the quarterfinals of the 2024 NWSL playoffs on Friday in their first home playoff match ever. The match will kick off at 8 p.m. and will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video.

Megan Montefusco Announces Retirement

Orlando Pride defender Megan Montefusco will retire from professional soccer following the 2024 season. She’s played in the NWSL since 2015 and joined the Pride prior to the 2022 season. In her time in Orlando, Montefusco made 45 appearances for Orlando and scored in a 2023 Challenge Cup match against NJ/NY Gotham FC. She did not play in any matches in the 2024 season after undergoing foot surgery during the off-season and was placed on the season-ending injury list. Montefusco finishes her career with 179 appearances, scoring three goals and adding four assists across all competitions.

MLS Playoff Roundup

The first round of the MLS Cup playoffs continued over the weekend, with a few teams booking their spot in the next round. The Columbus Crew’s title defense ended after they lost 5-4 on penalties to the New York Red Bulls after a 2-2 draw. The LA Galaxy dominated the Colorado Rapids 4-1 on the road to advance to the Western Conference semifinals. Minnesota United also moved on, defeating Real Salt Lake in a shootout after a 1-1 draw and the Loons will face the Galaxy. The Seattle Sounders edged past the Houston Dynamo 7-6 on penalties after a 1-1 draw to advance to the Western Conference semifinals as well.

New York City FC bounced back with a 3-1 win over FC Cincinnati, while Atlanta United did the same with a 2-1 victory over Inter Miami as both teams stayed alive to force a third game in their series. LAFC fell 3-0 on the road to the Vancouver Whitecaps in a match that included two own goals.

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That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday and I’ll see you next time.

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Orlando City

Orlando City at Charlotte FC: Player Grades and Man of the Match

How did your favorite Lions perform in Orlando City’s road shootout loss to Charlotte FC?

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City was offensively challenged in a 0-0 road draw at Charlotte FC and the ensuing penalties that decide who “wins” best-of-three, first-round playoff games. Those challenges included the shootout, in which the Lions made one measly spot kick on four attempts.

Let’s take a look at the individual performances in this disappointing penalty kick loss.

Starters

GK, Pedro Gallese, 7 (MotM) — Orlando City might have lost in penalty kicks, but it only got that far thanks to a good night from Gallese. El Pulpo made three huge saves in the match to keep the Lions in the game. In addition to the saves, he did well in owning the box and distributing the ball. Gallese passed at a 76.5% rate on 17 passes with 27 touches. He was successful on four of his eight long balls. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to stop any of Charlotte’s three shots during penalties, guessing correctly once.

D, Rafael Santos, 5.5 — It was a mostly “blah” night for Santos. He was as anemic as the rest of the team in the first half, and most of the second half. He had the most touches of any player with 76, but only managed a 79.4% passing rate on 63 passes and struggled to get through balls to their intended targets to break lines. Santos was accurate on five of his 11 long balls and provided one cross. Defensively, he made two clearances and committed one foul. Santos came off for Kyle Smith in the 74th minute.

D, Robin Jansson, 5.5— I know that Jansson is the captain, but perhaps having a center back go second during penalty kicks isn’t the best decision. When Jansson sent his kick well over the crossbar, he all but guaranteed the return match at Inter&Co Stadium next weekend, as Nico Lodeiro had already seen his attempt saved. He also earned a yellow card for a foul against Patrick Agyemang in the 34th minute. That was the bad stuff. On the good side of the ledger, Jansson had 68 touches, passed at 91.7% rate on 60 passes, and connected on one of his five long balls. Defensively, he recorded two tackles, two clearances, and two interceptions.

D, Rodrigo Schlegel, 6 — Schlegel put in a decent shift on the back line. Defensively, he made three clearances, including one in the 26th minute to keep the ball away from Agyemang, and he made a crucial block in the box. Schlegel touched the ball 69 times with a passing rate of 91.4% on 58 passes, completing one of six long balls. He picked up a yellow card in second-half stoppage time which was his only foul committed.

D, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, 5.5 — It was a mixed bag for Thorhallsson in this match. He had one of the few shots taken by Orlando City, though it was not on target. He touched the ball 49 times and passed at an 88.6% rate on 35 passes. Thorhallsson had a few giveaways, although he also contributed two clearances on defense. He made way for David Brekalo in the 84th minute.

MF, Wilder Cartagena, 6.5 — Cartagena was his usual good self. He patrolled the defensive midfield, stopping potential attacks throughout the match. The Peruvian touched the ball 59 times and passed at an 88.5% rate on 52 passes. More importantly, he finished with four tackles and three clearances defensively. He was a big reason that Charlotte didn’t put the ball in the back of the net before the penalties.

MF, Cesar Araujo, 6 — Araujo put in a solid shift alongside Cartagena. Overall, he was good on the night, though he wasn’t as clean as he usually is, coughing up the ball occasionally. Araujo is also good at earning fouls, drawing three in the match. He managed 67 touches, passed at an 88.1% rate on 59 passes, and was successful on four of his five long balls. Defensively, he recorded one tackle and three clearances.

MF, Ivan Angulo, 5.5 — Angulo had the only shot attempt on target for the Lions in the match, coming on his only shot of the night. Frankly, there wasn’t much behind it, though. He managed 37 touches and passed at an 87.5% rate on 24 passes. He had the same problem that most of the offense had in this game. That problem was a lack of urgency in getting into the attack. It’s pretty telling that he didn’t manage to contribute any crosses. Angulo came off for Luis Muriel in the 88th minute.

MF, Martin Ojeda, 5.5 —  Ojeda was excellent in the first match against Charlotte, but he wasn’t really able to make a big difference in this one. It’s not that he was bad, as he passed at a 93.8% rate on 32 passes with a total of 40 touches. He connected on three of his four long balls and made three crosses. However, he did not take any shots nor provide any assists. Ojeda came off for Lodeiro in the 75th minute.

MF, Facundo Torres, 6.5 — Torres was average for most of the match. It wasn’t until Oscar Pareja made the late second-half substitutions that Torres really opened up. He didn’t manage to take a shot or provide an assist, though he did have one key pass. He passed at an 85.4% rate on 48 passes and connected on one of his four long balls. He was successful on one of his six crosses, most of which came late in the match. Torres had a bad giveaway in 49th minute that resulted in a chance for Agyemang, but it was saved by Gallese. Defensively, he contributed three clearances. Had the assistant referee’s flag stayed down for Lodeiro’s run, he would have scored a goal that likely would have pushed Orlando through to the next round, and although it was a well-struck shot, it ultimately doesn’t count.

F, Ramiro Enrique, 4.5 — Given how little offense Orlando City generated, it’s not surprising that Enrique didn’t do much in this match. The striker registered no shots or assists and only touched the ball 17 times. His passing rate wasn’t great at 44.4%, but to be fair, he only made nine passes. He managed to make one tackle and provide two clearances, committing one foul and drawing one foul. If you thought he was quiet in the previous match, he was practically invisible in this one. He was replaced by Duncan McGuire in the 56th minute.

Substitutes

F, Duncan McGuire (56’), 5 — McGuire provided a different look for Orlando City’s offense after coming on for Enrique, and he managed to get a shot off, though it wasn’t on target. He finished with just 15 touches, passing at a 55.6% rate on only nine passes. He contributed one clearance and one blocked shot on defense. Most importantly, his penalty kick was saved by Kristijan Kahlina to end the match. Overall, it was a forgettable performance, but his was by no means the only one.

D, Kyle Smith (75’), 5 — Smith came on in the 75th minute for Thorhallsson for defensive help. He seemed somewhat out of sync with his teammates, though he wasn’t horrible. He touched the ball 30 times and completed 78.3% of his 23 passes. Smith completed all three of his attempted long balls and had one key pass. He also didn’t record any defensive statistics in his time on the field. He did, however, help keep Charlotte off the board through the end of the match to send it to penalty kicks.

MF, Nico Lodeiro (75’), 5 — When Lodeiro replaced Ojeda, he was one of the subs that sparked the Lions’ offensive efforts. Though they didn’t get a goal, at least they looked dangerous in Charlotte’s half of the field. Lodeiro attempted four crosses, made one key pass, and was offside three times — this included the play that could have resulted in a late Torres goal. He touched the ball 20 times and completed 68.2% of his 22 passes. On the other hand, he got Orlando City off on the wrong foot in the penalty shootout when he left his shot too close to Kahlina and at a favorable height for the goalkeeper, who guessed correctly and made a good save.

D, David Brekalo (84’), N/A — Brekalo came on in the 88th minute for Thorhallsson as the Lions went to three center backs to see out the game. He only managed six touches, completing one of his two passes. However, he made two clearances, so that’s good.

F, Luis Muriel (88’), N/A — Muriel’s entrance was definitely too little, too late. He came on to help with penalty kicks, and he was the only one to score his attempt. He managed 10 touches and completed 100% of his seven passes.


That’s how I saw the individual performances in Friday’s loss for the Lions. Let us know how you saw the game in the comments and don’t forget to vote for your Man of the Match.

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