Orlando City did exactly what it needed to in Game 1 against Charlotte FC, as the Lions controlled the game, created good chances, and put those opportunities away to secure a solid win and take control of the three-game series. Attention turns to the Tarheel State this evening, when the two teams will square off in Game 2, with Orlando trying to close things out and advance to the conference semifinals. Let’s take a look at what the Lions need to do tonight in order to finish this series off and advance to the next round.

Keep it Tight Defensively

With Charlotte staring down the barrel of elimination from the postseason, the hosts are going to have to come out and attack OCSC. It’s possible that if the game remains tied as time winds down that Charlotte could decide to sit back and take its chances in the crapshoot that is penalty kicks, but expect the home side to attack more than in Game 1 in an attempt to settle the game in regulation. That means that Orlando must be alert and precise on defense. The Lions can’t afford to make the sort of mental errors that plagued the back line so often during the first few months of the season. Even if Charlotte chooses to play on the counter and OCSC has a ton of the ball, the Lions will need to avoid falling asleep and giving up a goal against the run of play. Either way, the men in purple were nearly flawless during Sunday’s Game 1 performance, and a repeat of that effort will go a long way towards getting Orlando the result it needs.

Be Clinical in Front of Goal

Regardless of how much Charlotte decides to attack, Orlando is going to have chances. The attack is working well at the moment, and whether shots are coming on the counterattack or in the “half-court,” the Lions are going to get looks at goal. Convert those chances, and the series tilts farther in Orlando City’s favor, especially if the visitors can grab the first goal. That would force Charlotte to pour numbers forward, open up spaces in behind, and present even more opportunities for OCSC to kill off the game, pull some starters, and get some rest for legs that have seen long seasons.

Keep the Heads Cool

It doesn’t happen all the time, but the Lions have had a nasty habit of losing their cool in big games. Red cards in playoff games and rivalry matches have changed the complexion of things and made tough tasks even tougher. That sort of thing absolutely cannot happen in tonight’s game. For starters, it would make it that much more difficult to get past Charlotte. Being a man down in a hostile, packed house is a recipe for disaster, especially when Orlando has so much going in its favor heading into this game. Getting sucked into scuffles or making rash challenges could also have huge ramifications on the next round, should Orlando City take care of business and advance. OCSC needs to play with grit and intensity, but not let the size of the moment become overwhelming, and make sure it keeps all 11 men on the field.

It’s never that easy, and nothing guarantees a win, but if the Lions can play another great defensive game, take the chances they get in front of goal, and stay levelheaded and avoid getting sucked into any extracurriculars, it should go a long way towards securing a win and booking passage to the conference semifinals. Vamos Orlando!

Welcome to November, Mane Landers! It’s kind of crazy that there are only two months left of 2024, and I’m not looking forward to the holiday shopping frenzy. I checked on how my resolutions are doing for this year and am going to have to pick up the pace if I want to reach my reading goals. Let’s get this November started with today’s links!

Lions Takes On Charlotte FC Tonight

Orlando City has a chance to book its spot in the next round of the playoffs tonight when it faces off against Charlotte FC at 7:30 p.m. This will be Charlotte’s first playoff game at home since joining the league and it will likely be a loud environment for the Lions to deal with. Charlotte is without Designated Player Pep Biel due to his red card, but midfielders Kerwin Vargas and Patrick Agyemang are more than capable of making an impact. The Lions will have to remain at the top of their game to avoid the series being sent back to Orlando for Game 3 on Nov. 9.

Orlando Pride Prepare for Regular Season Finale

The Orlando Pride will aim to get back on track Saturday night when they take on the Seattle Reign at home in their final game of the regular season. After a pair of losses, a match against the Reign presents a good chance for the team to return to its winning ways after securing its first NWSL Shield. Pride Head Coach Seb Hines spoke on how the international break gives the team a decent chance to reset, as well as how playing at home should give the team a boost.

NWSL Playoff Race Nears Its End

While the Pride secured the top spot in the standings weeks ago, a majority of the league has plenty on the line this weekend. There are three teams in contention for the final two playoff spots, and there’s a three-team race for the second seed in the playoffs. The Portland Thorns can clinch a spot in the playoffs with a result tonight against Angel City FC, while Bay FC can clinch with a result tomorrow night against the Houston Dash. If either team loses, it opens the door for Racing Louisville to snatch a spot in the playoffs on Sunday against the San Diego Wave. After last year’s drama that included the Pride narrowly missing out on the playoffs, I’m glad things are already locked up for Orlando this year.

USWNT’s New Era Off to Strong Start

One of the biggest takeaways from the United States Women’s National Team’s trio of victories in the recent international window was how many new players took the field and impressed. Head Coach Emma Hayes utilized plenty of rotation across the three matches, and Pride defender Emily Sams was one of seven players who made their debut. Sams received a rating of 7 coming off the bench in the team’s win over Argentina, a match that showcased just how deep the U.S. player pool is. It’s been a fantastic past few months for Hayes, who leaned on innovation and experimentation with Chelsea and has the U.S. rebuilding while still staying on top.

Free Kicks

• Forward Diana Ordonez won’t play in the Dash’s final game of the season after undergoing successful surgery earlier this week.

• St. Louis City’s home stadium has been named Energizer Park as part of the club’s partnership with the battery manufacturer.
• The NWSL announced the schedule of events leading into the NWSL Championship on Nov. 23. The NWSL Skills Challenge will take place the night prior and the winner of the Lauren Holiday Impact Award will be announced on the day of the match.
• Chicago Fire FC II midfielder David Poreba was named 2024 MLS NEXT Pro MVP after leading the league with 18 goals this season.
• Ruben Amorim stated that there will be clarification on his reported move to Manchester United after Sporting CP’s match today.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and a relaxing weekend!

As noted in the recap of Orlando City’s first playoff game against Charlotte, the Lions scored more than one goal in a postseason playoff game for the first time in their MLS history. However, the Lions struggled to score in their seven other MLS playoff games, getting shut out twice and scoring one goal in the other five matches.

Even with the low-scoring output, the team advanced one round in 2020 and again in 2023, but the Lions have yet reach the conference final. A quick look at their performances in the regular season, as opposed to the playoffs, shows just how stark the offensive struggles have been (I am aware that points are not a thing in the playoffs, but just pretend that they were for comparison purposes, so even though Orlando City won in 2020 against New York City FC, it was a draw after 90 minutes that eventually went to penalties. As such, I called it a draw for average points purposes):

You can see from the data that while the team’s defense is averaging roughly the same amount of goals given up per game across all playoff games, the offense is down 56% in terms of average goals scored per game. I am not someone who believes in teams carrying history with them onto the field, as we are beaten over our heads with when the Yankees take the field in baseball and the announcers intimate that because the team won a lot of titles in the first half of the 20th century, that somehow matters in 2024 (altogether unsurprising note — I despise the Yankees), but in this situation I think it is worth looking at the last few years, because it is the same head coach and the team plays a similar formation and in very similar ways.

The players from 2020 are different than today (leading scorer: the Money Badger, Chris Mueller, and of 2024’s roster only two current players (Pedro Gallese and Robin Jansson) started in more than half of their games), but the reality from that year, and every year, is that the teams played all season long include teams at the top, middle, and bottom of the league, but the opponents in the playoffs include some in the middle but are mostly at the top.

With a higher caliber of opponent on the field, the Lions have performed similarly defensively but have struggled offensively, and the chart below shows some of the reasons why (red shading means the value is lower (even barely) in the playoffs as compared to during the regular season):

Insert usual disclaimer about non-penalty expected goals (npxG) being a metric that is more about shot locations than if the player really should have been expected to score, but regardless, while the red to white split in the table on the right is not drastic (11-9 red to white), some of the gaps in efficiency are large. The playoff stats on the right are full of small sample sizes, and as Billy Beane of Moneyball fame said “my (expletive) doesn’t work in the playoffs,” meaning that in small sample sizes, anything can happen, and season-long trends can disappear. The 2024 playoff stats, albeit through only one game, look good though, so perhaps this season will be the one when everything goes right offensively instead of wrong.

Whether the reason is offensive struggles, playing against better defenses, or some kind of mental block for playoff games, the reality is that prior to the home game against Charlotte on Sunday, Orlando City had never scored more than one goal in a playoff game. But, now the Lions have done that, and I do not want to take full credit, but it was my daughter’s first-ever game in attendance when they did so…I am taking full credit. (Sorry, actual players who played in the game.)

This year’s team scored the most regular-season goals of any Orlando City squad in the MLS era, and in my opinion, the Lions have the best collection of overall offensive talent of any team in club history, so much so that they bring three players off the bench (Duncan McGuire, Luis Muriel, and Nico Lodeiro) who combined for 37 goal contributions this season in MLS regular-season play. Now that the team has achieved one playoff game with at least two goals, the next offensive goal target will be multiple playoff games with multiple goals — hopefully starting as soon as in the match at Charlotte on Friday.

The last two seasons have been full of achievements for Orlando City in the team’s MLS era, and with two more wins (though let’s not get ahead of ourselves), the team would add another achievement to that list — the Lions’ first-ever trip to the conference final. Advancing in the playoffs does not require scoring goals (provided you hold your opponent scoreless too and win your shootouts), but scoring goals is fun, and fun is good (doctor’s orders, right Dr. Seuss?). And I believe that this team has the offensive ability to continue to have fun and advance in the upcoming weeks.

Vamos Orlando!