The Orlando Pride start their quest for a second trophy this season against the Chicago Red Stars this Friday night at Inter&Co Stadium. The Pride got back on track with a 3-2 victory over the Seattle Reign in their last match to finish the regular season. Now, the stakes are higher in a win-or-you’re-done game against the eighth-place Red Stars.

What do the Pride need to do to defeat Chicago and move on to the next round of the NWSL playoffs?

Defend this House

The Orlando Pride defense was dealt a continuation of a blow when it was announced that Rafaelle has a season-ending injury. It’s not that she had been playing, but some of us were hoping she’d return to help bolster a back line that has given up more goals lately. That help is not coming, and the Pride will have to deal with one Mallory Swanson.

The USWNT and Chicago star has seven goals and four assists this season. She is a seasoned international player who is always dangerous in the attack. Emily Sams will once again anchor the Pride defense, but she can’t do it alone. In fact, one of the reasons the Pride defense was so stingy was that every player on the pitch took offense if the opponents were able to score a goal. As such, they put their bodies on the line over and over to make sure it didn’t happen.

My hope is that the last three matches that saw the Pride give up seven goals was a result of those matches not mattering since the Pride had already won the NWSL Shield and secured the first seed in the playoffs. Now, the stakes matter again. It is a must-win match, so it’s time to get back to the sacrifice-for-the-defense mentality this team had most of the year.

Perhaps a Banda Goal…or Two?

I mentioned in the Three Keys article last week that it was time for Barbra Banda to start scoring goals again. That didn’t happen. She found herself in some dangerous positions, however, and on our latest episode of SkoPurp Soccer: An Orlando Pride PawedCast, Michael Citro said he feels like she’s about to break back out.

I certainly hope that’s the case, since the Pride need a victory or Banda will have to wait until next season to start scoring again. I agree with Michael about Banda. She is long overdue to score a goal with her foot, and once she does, I think the floodgates will open.

Precision Scoring

Regardless of whether it is Banda, Marta, Adriana, Ally Watt, or any other Pride player, they will need to be precise when taking their scoring chances. The Red Stars have Swanson on one end of the pitch, and on the other they have Alyssa Naeher in goal. The USWNT’s number one keeper is one of the better keepers in the world, and scoring on her won’t be easy.

The Pride scored just one goal in each of the two regular-season matches against the Red Stars, winning 1-0 on the road and drawing 1-1 at home. Just to be safe, I think multiple goals will be better. It is something we know the Pride can do, since in their last three wins, the Pride have scored eight goals. Continuing that type of attack will go a long way to seeing the Pride advance to the next match.

That is what I will be looking for Friday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

Saturday at Inter&Co Stadium, the Orlando Pride finished their NWSL Shield-winning regular season with a 3-2 victory over the Seattle Reign. Orlando showed some of the same warning signs in this match that plagued the club in its previous two losses at the Portland Thorns and Gotham FC, including poor defending, especially from set pieces. This dip in form came in matches that didn’t carry the same weight for Orlando after the Pride clinched the top spot in the league, but they will have to get back on track in a hurry for the playoffs.

Orlando was the best team in the NWSL during the regular season, but to evaluate how form can be a factor in crowning a champion, this piece will open the history books to compare Orlando’s performances in the final matches to prior NWSL Shield and championship-winning clubs.

Before looking at recent NWSL trophy winners’ end-of-season performances, it is important to contextualize Orlando’s end to the season. Over the final five matches, the Pride racked up three wins and their only two losses of the season. The Pride won the shield with three games remaining on the calendar, which created a strange situation for the club. These remaining matches mattered less in context, and due in part to tough matchups, heavy lineup rotation, and maybe some drop in concentration, the Pride had just one win and two losses to close the campaign.

In the 11 matches leading up to winning the Shield, the Pride only conceded two goals, but in the three matches since, they have conceded seven times. Returning to their defensive roots, quickly and without Rafaelle, who is now out for the year, will be critical for Orlando’s chances in the playoffs.

After looking at the Pride’s form, it can be compared to prior NWSL Shield and championship winners from each of the previous five seasons:

The good news for Orlando is there is some precedence for the Pride’s situation. In both 2018 and 2019, the shield-winning North Carolina Courage went on to win the NWSL championship as well. Each season, the Courage dropped a result or two in the final games, before getting a final-day win to propel them into the playoffs. These teams were two of the best ever in the NWSL, winning the shield with four games and two games left to be played, respectively. With the Pride’s win against Seattle on Saturday, they surpassed the 2018 Courage team to break the record for the most points and the most wins in a single regular season, showing just how special this season has been so far.

Since the North Carolina Courage completed back-to-back domestic doubles, the NWSL Shield winners have not won a playoff game, let alone the NWSL championship. In each season from 2018 to 2023, the shield winner had fewer points than the year before, showcasing the league’s parity. In 2021, the Portland Thorns struggled mightily down the stretch, winning only one of their final five games. That year it was the Washington Spirit, undefeated in their final seven regular-season matches, that took home the trophy. The following year, the shield-winning Reign lost in the first round despite coming into the playoffs on a seven-match unbeaten streak. That season, the Thorns won the NWSL championship after a five-match unbeaten run to close the regular season. Both of these years, hot teams kept their streaks going into the playoffs to win it all, regardless of who won the shield.

The 2023 NWSL campaign stands out as one of the more unique seasons. The San Diego Wave won a tight shield race on the final day despite accumulating only 37 points. Then, Gotham, which just barely beat out the Orlando Pride for the final playoff spot on goal differential, won the NWSL championship despite poor form to close the season. San Diego’s early exit from the playoffs continued a trend of tight shield races followed by first-round losses. This pattern, shown below, highlights how Orlando’s early shield win has more in common with the 2018 and 2019 Courage teams than recent shield winners.

The table above shows some correlation between how tight a shield race is to the playoff result of the winner. This pattern could be explained by how hard a team is working in the final weeks of the season to win a trophy before running out of steam for the playoffs. On the other hand, it may show that tight races mean there are multiple good teams capable of winning the NWSL championship, unlike the 2018 and 2019 seasons, in which the Courage were a step above the opposition.

The Pride will hope that winning the shield early means they are fresh and well rested for the playoffs. If not, the other top teams in the league have been in great form at the end of the year, as Washington, Gotham, and Kansas City have each only dropped points in one of their final five matches heading into the playoffs.

At the end of the regular season, it was clear that the Orlando Pride’s form had dipped after winning the NWSL shield. The win against Seattle on the final day of the regular season was a step in the right direction, but unconvincing. A look at the history books shows that the best teams in NWSL history have been able to win both the NWSL Shield and championship. For Orlando to stake its claim as having had the best season in league history, the Pride will need to reverse their form and defeat some of the hottest teams in the league.

The Orlando Pride began the 2024 NWSL season on a 23-game unbeaten run. They were three results away from being the first team in league history to complete a full season without a loss. However, they lost a pair of away games before returning home and defeating Seattle Reign FC 3-2 in the regular-season finale.

While the Pride have big names in their attack, it’s their defense that lifted them to unprecedented heights. The team conceded just 13 goals in their first 23 games and had 13 clean sheets. But those stellar performances have stopped over the last three games.

One of the reasons why the Pride were so successful defensively for most of the season was their ability to avoid conceding on set pieces. A primary way many teams score is through free kicks, corner kicks, and throw-ins. Through the first 23 games, the Pride didn’t give up a single goal from a set piece.

That changed when they traveled west to face the Portland Thorns. A corner kick in the 12th minute found the head of Reyna Reyes, who headed the ball towards goal from near the penalty spot. Morgan Weaver slipped behind Carrie Lawrence and Cori Dyke to touch it in and give the Thorns an early lead.

In the 55th minute, the Thorns earned a throw-in. Quick passing off the set piece saw the Thorns play through the midfield line, setting up Christine Sinclair for the second goal.

“I think it came down to, you know, a defensive set piece and a throw-in,” Pride Head Coach Seb Hines said after the game. “And so it’s a good opportunity for us to reflect, review the game, and make sure that doesn’t happen again.”

Unfortunately, they were unable to fix the problem. The following game against NJ/NY Gotham FC, the Pride conceded their third goal from a set piece in two games. This one came off an early corner kick when Sam Hiatt got a foot to the ball, albeit with a weak touch, and the Pride were unable to clear. It’s questionable whether there was another touch in front of goal, but it doesn’t matter as none of the defenders were able to get a piece of it.

Saturday night was the third consecutive game that the Pride conceded a set -piece goal. This one was off a throw-in in the 84th minute when nobody closed down the players on the outside, enabling Veronica Latsko to find the head of Maddie Mercado to cut the Pride’s lead to 3-2.

After conceding only 13 goals in the first 23 games, the Pride have conceded seven in the last three. Of those, four have come from set pieces when they hadn’t given up a single set-piece goal all season prior.

According to Hines, these defensive lapses come down to concentration. Against Portland, Weaver snuck behind two defenders to get on the end of a header towards goal. The Pride let the ball travel through multiple defenders before reaching the goal against Gotham and left Mercado wide open in the box Saturday night.

“The second goal comes from a defensive throw-in that, similar (to the first goal), we allow a ball to get into the box. She’s open again, free header, and it goes into the back of the net,” Hines said about Seattle’s second goal. “So these are things that we can control. It’s concentration.”

Despite Hines’ claim that the team focuses on each game individually, part of the problem might be the achievement prior to the game in Portland. The Pride clinched the NWSL Shield against the Washington Spirit on Oct. 6, securing the team’s first trophy and the top seed in the playoffs. There wasn’t much to play for other than setting more league records.

The next game is Friday night against the Chicago Red Stars with a lot more on the line. The NWSL’s playoff structure is single-game rounds, so a lapse in concentration can end your season. Additionally, the team’s primary goal this year was winning the NWSL Championship, something that’s still very much achievable.

The Pride have a big advantage in that the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds (if the team advances) will be at home. They’ve yet to lose this year at Inter&Co Stadium and Saturday night was the first time they’ve conceded multiple goals in their home stadium. The team will have to keep their concentration and return to their defensive efforts on set pieces to achieve their ultimate goal.