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Orlando City’s Playoff Offense Needs to Match Its Prolific Defense

A comparison of Orlando City’s offensive and defensive performances in the regular season and playoffs, and a conference final prediction.

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1 month ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City / Jeremy Reper

A few weeks ago I wrote about the final four NWSL teams and what the Pride would need to do to be the last team standing, and two weeks later the Pride won the NWSL Championship. I am not saying that there is a direct explicit cause-and-effect connection between the two, and that the sole reason the Pride won was because of me and what I wrote, but I am not not saying it either.

I am absolutely not saying that. Out loud.

Seriously though, congratulations to the Pride. What an amazing season they had and they thoroughly deserve to call themselves champions. As my colleague Sam Denker wrote, they have built something special and sustainable.

Staying in the same stadium and color, but moving to MLS, Orlando City has reached the same place the Pride were two weekends ago — the final four of its league playoffs. In contrast to the NWSL, where the top four teams during the regular season made the final four, on the MLS side, it is the teams ranked fourth (LA Galaxy), seventh (Seattle), ninth (Orlando City) and 14th (the New York Red Bulls). There is a Wicked joke in here somewhere about Inter Miami getting splashed with cold water in the first round of the playoffs and melting away, but I will leave it at that and move on to focusing on the best MLS team in Florida, a team that actually advanced not once, but twice in the playoffs.

Orlando City has technically won three of its four games in these playoffs, as MLS counts penalty kick shootout wins as full game wins in the best-of-three, first-round matchups, but it has not been pretty. The offense that was averaging nearly 2.5 goals scored per game from July through the end of the regular season is averaging a paltry 1.0 goals per game in the playoffs, and while that has been enough for the Lions to squeeze through and advance to the conference finals, it would be a whole lot nicer if Orlando City’s offense was performing more like, say, the LA Galaxy, who are averaging a cool 5.0 goals per game in the playoffs (yes, you read that correctly).

Perhaps the Lions will score the required 21 goals against the Red Bulls to lift their playoff average from 1.0 to 5.0, but probably not, and at this point I would be happy with a two-goal game and would be extremely thankful (timely reference alert) for a three-goal game, especially considering how well the defense has been playing.

We will get to the defense, a positive story, in a moment, but before that I want to show a comparison between Orlando City’s performance during the full regular season, the regular season games from July on, and the four playoff games (own goals are excluded from these stats; all data is from fbref.com):

GamesGoals/GameShots/GameSoT%Goal Conversion (Shots)Goal Conversion (SoT)npxG/Shot
All Regular Season1.6513.1534%12.5%37.1%.10
July and After2.2913.9237%16.5%44.0%.11
Playoffs1.0013.2530%7.5%25.0%.09
SoT = Shots on Target and npxG = non-penalty expected goals

The Lions came into the playoffs extremely hot, but in their four playoff games they have looked like the Orlando City of the early season, which struggled to find the net with consistency. It is a small sample, and the competition is fiercer in the playoffs than the regular season, but what stands out to me is that the quality of the shot locations has decreased by nearly 20% (look at the decrease in npxG/Shot in the playoffs as compared to the games from July onward) and, probably unsurprisingly, the conversion rates have decreased as well. However, the Lions are not the only team experiencing a postseason decline, as evidenced by the chart showing the change in each statistic from the regular season to the playoffs:

GamesGoals/GameShots/GameSoT%Goal Conversion (Shots)Goal Conversion (SoT)npxG/Shot
Last Four Teams+0.34-0.15-0.3%+2.6%+7.7%Same
LA Galaxy+3.00+1.29+17.5%+18.0%+20.7%+.04
Other Three-0.45-0.56-6.7%-2.9%-2.6%-.02
SoT = Shots on Target and npxG = non-penalty expected goals

If you look broadly at the last four teams, there is more green than red (first row), but as you can see from the subsequent two rows, it is really that the Galaxy have been full of shooting stars (see what I did there?) and the other three teams have performed worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. The good news is that Orlando City is not alone in having playoff struggles. The bad news is that every game in the playoffs is a must-win game, so the Lions need to figure this out right now.

Or do they?

Soccer is the rare game where a team can hold its opponent scoreless and still get knocked out of the playoffs, but giving up zero goals guarantees at least a chance in a shootout, and when you have Pedro Gallese and Rodrigo Schlegel, your chances are good that you can win that shootout. Orlando City has posted shutouts in three of the four playoff games, and while the team’s offense has slipped in productivity, the defense has made up for it by giving up just one goal in 360 minutes of playoff action (plus stoppage time). If we look at the same type of stats for Orlando City’s opponents that we did for the Lions’ own attackers, we can see that while the offense slipped from scoring 1.65 goals per game during the regular season to a flat 1.00, a 39% decline, the defense has more than made up for it:

GamesGoals/GameShots/GameSoT%Goal Conversion (Shots)Goal Conversion (SoT)npxG/Shot
All Regular Season1.4711.2134%13.1%39.1%.11
Playoffs0.259.0025%2.8%11.1%.08
SoT = Shots on Target and npxG = non-penalty expected goals

The comparative for Orlando City’s opponents is an 83% decrease in goals scored per game, an astounding decline and one that is a testament to the the whole team on how the Lions are limiting the opposing offenses. Atlanta United did not even get one shot on target all game, and while Charlotte did actually put the ball in the net, it only did so once in 270 minutes. Orlando City is limiting opponents to fewer shots per game, and the shots allowed are from locations that have historically produced fewer goals — an excellent combination.

As the Lions enter their first-ever MLS Eastern Conference final, the offense is chugging along while the defense is going full throttle, but I think a breakout is coming for the offense. This group has started nearly every game together for months, and I think the players will use their familiarity to break out of their mini slump and return to their high flying ways in the most important MLS game in the club’s history. Thus far this season, Orlando City has lost and drawn its two games with the Red Bulls, with both of those matches coming before the July turnaround, and I believe the Lions will complete the full results set and win the third one at Inter&Co Stadium this weekend.

My daughter is 3-0-0 in the three games she has ever attended , and she will be there in the stands, cheering on the Lions Saturday night. I am not saying that her attendance is the only reason that Orlando City will win, but I am not not saying it either.

Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 12/31/24

Orlando Cup Pro Series scheduling changes, MLS news roundup, Americans in midweek action, and more.

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14 hours ago

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December 31, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Tuesday and happy New Year’s Eve! I hope you’ve been enjoying the strange time of limbo that seems to set in during the time in between Christmas and the beginning of the new year. It’s strange to think that the year has passed by so quickly, but that just means we’re a little bit closer to the start of Orlando City’s 2025 season. We have plenty to talk over today, so let’s get into the links.

Two Teams Withdraw From Orlando Cup Pro Series

On Monday, the Orlando Cup-Pro Series announced that Santos FC and Atletico Nacional have pulled out of the competition. That means that three matches have been canceled, with Santos FC vs. Atletico Nacional, Fortaleza vs. Santos FC, and Atletico Nacional vs. Fortaleza no longer taking place. All fans who purchased tickets to those games will get refunds, and an updated match schedule will be dropping soon.

MLS News Roundup

There are a number of pieces of MLS news that we need to get to this morning. Up first is a familiar face, as former Orlando City goalkeeper Earl Edwards Jr. was traded from the New England Revolution to the San Jose Earthquakes, with the Revs receiving $150,000 in 2025 General Allocation Money in exchange. Up next, CF Montreal has been busy filling out its staff, as the team announced four coaching hires on Monday. They will join Head Coach Laurent Courtois, who will be in his second year at the helm of the team in 2025. Finally, former Orlando City player Felipe has been putting in the off-season work following the end of his time with the Lions.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans taking part in games throughout the week, so make sure you have everything marked down on your calendar. Things get started tomorrow when Brenden Aaronson and Leeds United host Blackburn Rovers as Leeds looks to stay atop the EFL Championship standings. Thursday sees Cameron Carter-Vickers, Auston Trusty, and Celtic take on Rangers in the Old Firm Derby, with the Hoops trying to remain undefeated in league play. Finally, we get some American-on-American violence on Friday, as Yunus Musah and AC Milan face Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, and Juventus in an Italian Super Cup semifinal that is being played in Saudi Arabia for some reason.

European Transfer Rumor Mill

With the January transfer window quite literally just a day away from opening, rumors are flying thick and fast. We start with Brandon Vazquez, who is reportedly leaving CF Monterrey after mutually agreeing to terminate his contract with the team a little less than a year after joining. A number of MLS teams are said to be interested in securing his services. We then make a big leap across the world to Saudi Arabia, where Cristiano Ronaldo is said to be open to signing elsewhere with his Al-Nassr contract set to expire in June. On the flip side of things, Casemiro is reportedly ready to leave Manchester United and join the Saudi League, where a number of teams are said to be interested. Finally, Antonee Robinson, Marcus Rashford, and Viktor Gyokeres are among the players who could be on the move during the January window, so keep an eye on their names.

Free Kicks

  • Check out some picture perfect moments from the Orlando Pride’s 2024 season.

That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

2024 Orlando City Season in Review: Pedro Gallese

The Peruvian goalkeeper had an inconsistent start to the year, but was solid throughout the team’s second-half surge.

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1 day ago

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December 30, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City initially signed goalkeeper Pedro Gallese on Jan. 17, 2020, and the Peruvian immediately became a fixture in the Lions’ starting lineup. He led the club to its first MLS playoff appearance and was sent off during penalties in one of the most bizarre endings in league history before leading the team to the postseason again every year since joining the Lions. In the 2022 season, he started the quarterfinal, semifinal, and final of the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup, helping the Lions win their first major trophy. Orlando City signed Gallese to a new contract on Dec. 27, 2022, keeping him in purple through 2024 with a club option for 2025.

Let’s take a look at how Gallese played in his fifth season in Orlando.

Statistical Breakdown

Gallese was Orlando City’s first-choice goalkeeper for the fifth straight season, playing in 29 games (all starts) and recording 2,610 minutes during the regular season. He gave up 39 goals while making 72 saves for a save percentage of 64.9% and a 1.34 goals-against average. Additionally, Gallese recorded eight clean sheets and saved two of his six penalties faced. The shot stopper completed 439 of his 614 passes (71.5%) in the regular season, including 83 long balls. He also recorded his first assist for the club, setting up an attack that resulted in a Duncan McGuire goal against Charlotte FC on Sept. 18.

In the playoffs, Gallese started all five games, recording 450 minutes. He conceded two goals while recording three clean sheets and making seven saves for a 77.8% save percentage and a 0.40 goals-against average. He completed 67 of his 97 passes (69.1%), including 14 long balls. He split his two penalty shootouts in the postseason, not making a save in Game 2 against Charlotte, but stopping the first two spot kicks in Game 3 against Pep Biel and Karol Swiderski to help Orlando City advance to the conference semifinals.

Gallese started all three Concacaf Champions Cup games, playing 270 minutes. He recorded a pair of clean sheets in a 3-0 win over Cavalry FC and a scoreless first leg against UANL Tigres before giving up four goals in the 4-2 loss to the Mexican opponent in the second leg for a 0.50 goals-against average. His 10 postseason saves resulted in a 71.4% save percentage. The starting goalkeeper completed 44 of his 59 passes for a 74.6% completion percentage.

In the Leagues Cup, Gallese started all three games, recording 270 minutes. He conceded a pair of goals with a clean sheet and made 15 saves for an 88.2% save percentage and a 0.25 goals-against average. Additionally, he saved the only penalty he faced in the competition during normal time. He completed 44 of his 69 passes for a 63.8% pass completion percentage. In Orlando City’s two penalty shootouts against Atletico San Luis and Cruz Azul, Gallese stopped Leo Bonatini to help the Lions win the former. He wasn’t able to make a save in the penalty shootout against Cruz Azul, and although Ignacio Rivero missed the net entirely, Orlando fell on penalties due to Robin Jansson and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson having their spot kicks saved.

Best Game

Gallese’s best game of the year was a game the Lions didn’t win and saw them eliminated from the Leagues Cup. On Aug. 9, he faced six shots on target in a scoreless draw against Mexican giants Cruz Azul, the third-highest number of shots he faced all season. However, he conceded four goals from nine shots in the second leg against Tigres and two goals from seven shots against Philadelphia on May 11. For this reason, I consider his clean sheet against Cruz Azul to be his best performance.

Orlando’s starting goalkeeper played all 90 minutes in that game and kept Cruz Azul off the board with his six saves. His distribution was also excellent, as he completed 21 of his 25 passes (84%). It was his only clean sheet of the tournament, as he conceded once each against CF Montreal and Atletico San Luis.

Due to the Leagues Cup format, the game went directly into penalties, which was unfortunate for Orlando City. Rivero missed the first attempt for Cruz Azul, but the other five shooters were successful. Cruz Azul goalkeeper Kevin Mier saved the two aforementioned penalties to put his team into the round of 16, but that doesn’t take away from Gallese’s strong performance against a good side from Liga MX.

2024 Final Grade

The Mane Land staff gave Gallese a composite grade of 7 out of 10 for the 2024 season. It’s the lowest grade he’s received since 2020, when he received the same grade. That season was followed by an 8 in 2021, an 8 in 2022, and a 7.5 in 2023. His 39 goals conceded are his second most since joining Orlando City and his 72 saves are his fewest in a 34-game season for the club. The latter number is attributable in part to Orlando City allowing the fourth-fewest shots against per match in 2024. Gallese, like the team in general, was particularly inconsistent in the first half of the 2024 season. However, he was at his best when it mattered most, especially in the shootout against Charlotte, when he stopped two the first two penalties and guessed correctly on the third. Gallese recorded three clean sheets in five playoff games and only gave up one goal in each of the other two games. Overall, while there was a slight drop in the Peruvian’s consistency, it was a solid season for the Lions’ shot stopper.

2025 Outlook

Gallese signed a deal through the 2024 season with an option for 2025 back in 2022 and that option was triggered because he achieved the necessary performance-based metrics. As a result, he’ll be the starting goalkeeper for his sixth season in Orlando. The only way the Peruvian won’t be in net is if he’s injured or away on international duty. While he allowed some uncharacteristic goals at times in 2024, he’s still a proven shot stopper and a leader on this team. Even with a slight dip in form, his presence is necessary for Orlando City to reach its goals in 2025.

Previous Season in Review Articles (Date Posted)

This concludes our 2024 Orlando City player-by-player Season in Review series. We hope you’ve enjoyed looking back on the Lions’ performances from the past year as we move closer toward seeing what lies ahead in 2025.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 12/30/24

Orlando City shares top goals of 2024, MLS transfer roundup, English Premier League results, and more.

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2 days ago

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December 30, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Hello, Mane Landers. I hope you all have been doing well and enjoying time with family and friends for the holidays as we close out 2024 tomorrow. I’ve been busy working at Under Armour all week. I’ll also be back at Wrigley Field to work the NHL Winter Classic tomorrow, and two Big Ten college hockey games later this week. There is plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Orlando City Unveils Top Goals of 2024

Orlando City shared some of the club’s top goals of 2024 and invited fans to vote on which one was the best of the year.

The club has been slowly unveiling its top 10 goals of the season on its Instagram page. Here’s what the organization has chosen as the best so far:

10. Martin Ojeda’s goal against D.C. United on July 6.
9. Duncan McGuire’s chip goal against Charlotte FC on Sept. 18.
8. Ramiro Enrique’s volley against FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5.
7. Facundo Torres’ strike against the Chicago Fire on June 22.
6. Ramiro Enrique’s goal against Cavalry FC in the Concacaf Champions Cup.
5. Luis Muriel’s first goal as a Lion against the Philadelphia Union on May 11.

Orlando City’s top four goals of the year are still to come, but what was your favorite Orlando City goal from the 2024 season? Let me know in the comments section below.

MLS Transfer Roundup

We have some big moves in Major League Soccer to catch you up on from the weekend. FC Dallas has acquired defender Shaq Moore from Nashville SC in exchange for $50,000 in 2025 General Allocation Money (GAM) and incentive-based GAM of up to $100,000. Moore has agreed to a two-year deal through 2026 with a club option for 2027. San Diego FC signed goalkeeper Pablo Sisniega to a one-year contract for the 2025 season with club options for the 2026 and 2027 seasons. Sisniega previously played for USL Championship side San Antonio FC. Lastly, Inter Miami has reportedly signed former Vancouver Whitecaps winger Fafa Picault.

English Premier League Recap

The Premier League fixtures continue through the holidays, and there were plenty of matches on Sunday. Manchester City defeated Leicester City 2-0 to snap its run of five consecutive matches without a win. Crystal Palace defeated Southampton 2-1, while Nottingham Forest won 2-0 against Everton and moved to second in the league table. Fulham and Bournemouth battled to a 2-2 draw, while Tottenham Hotspur and Wolverhampton’s match also ended 2-2. Liverpool cruised past West Ham United 5-0 as well. We have three more Premier League matches later today, with Aston Villa hosting Brighton, Ipswich Town facing Chelsea, and Manchester United taking on Newcastle United.

Keeping Up With the Americans Abroad

Several Americans were in action in Europe over the weekend. Brenden Aaronson scored the lone goal for Leeds United to defeat Derby County 1-0 to extend its unbeaten run to six matches and remain atop the EFL Championship table. Auston Trusty was on the bench for Celtic, but Cameron Carter-Vickers played a full 90 minutes against St. Johnstone in the Scottish Premiership. Celtic won 4-0 to extend its unbeaten run to 19 matches across all competitions. Weston McKennie played 62 minutes for Juventus before he was subbed off in the second half. Fiorentina grabbed a late equalizer for a 2-2 draw against Juventus as both sides have 32 points in Serie A and remain in fifth and sixth in the league table, respectively. Gianluca Busio played a full 90 minutes for Venezia, but his side lost 1-0 to Napoli on Sunday.

Free Kicks

  • NJ/NY Gotham FC will reportedly sign midfielder Gabi Portilho from Corinthians. Portilho won a silver medal with Brazil at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris and was a Ballon d’Or finalist.
  • AC Milan forward Christian Pulisic had an injury setback and did not play in Sunday’s match against AS Roma due to an ankle injury.
  • Dani Olmo is at risk of not playing for Barcelona in the second half of the La Liga season after a court rejected the club’s lawsuit to extend his temporary registration, which expires at the end of this month.
  • Dunfermline Athletic forward Dapo Mebude gave insight into resurrecting his career in an interview with BBC Sport. He had survived a car crash earlier this year while playing for Oostende in Belgium.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

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