Orlando City
Orlando City’s Playoff Offense Needs to Match Its Prolific Defense
A comparison of Orlando City’s offensive and defensive performances in the regular season and playoffs, and a conference final prediction.
A few weeks ago I wrote about the final four NWSL teams and what the Pride would need to do to be the last team standing, and two weeks later the Pride won the NWSL Championship. I am not saying that there is a direct explicit cause-and-effect connection between the two, and that the sole reason the Pride won was because of me and what I wrote, but I am not not saying it either.
I am absolutely not saying that. Out loud.
Seriously though, congratulations to the Pride. What an amazing season they had and they thoroughly deserve to call themselves champions. As my colleague Sam Denker wrote, they have built something special and sustainable.
Staying in the same stadium and color, but moving to MLS, Orlando City has reached the same place the Pride were two weekends ago β the final four of its league playoffs. In contrast to the NWSL, where the top four teams during the regular season made the final four, on the MLS side, it is the teams ranked fourth (LA Galaxy), seventh (Seattle), ninth (Orlando City) and 14th (the New York Red Bulls). There is a Wicked joke in here somewhere about Inter Miami getting splashed with cold water in the first round of the playoffs and melting away, but I will leave it at that and move on to focusing on the best MLS team in Florida, a team that actually advanced not once, but twice in the playoffs.
Orlando City has technically won three of its four games in these playoffs, as MLS counts penalty kick shootout wins as full game wins in the best-of-three, first-round matchups, but it has not been pretty. The offense that was averaging nearly 2.5 goals scored per game from July through the end of the regular season is averaging a paltry 1.0 goals per game in the playoffs, and while that has been enough for the Lions to squeeze through and advance to the conference finals, it would be a whole lot nicer if Orlando City’s offense was performing more like, say, the LA Galaxy, who are averaging a cool 5.0 goals per game in the playoffs (yes, you read that correctly).
Perhaps the Lions will score the required 21 goals against the Red Bulls to lift their playoff average from 1.0 to 5.0, but probably not, and at this point I would be happy with a two-goal game and would be extremely thankful (timely reference alert) for a three-goal game, especially considering how well the defense has been playing.
We will get to the defense, a positive story, in a moment, but before that I want to show a comparison between Orlando City’s performance during the full regular season, the regular season games from July on, and the four playoff games (own goals are excluded from these stats; all data is from fbref.com):
| Games | Goals/Game | Shots/Game | SoT% | Goal Conversion (Shots) | Goal Conversion (SoT) | npxG/Shot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Regular Season | 1.65 | 13.15 | 34% | 12.5% | 37.1% | .10 |
| July and After | 2.29 | 13.92 | 37% | 16.5% | 44.0% | .11 |
| Playoffs | 1.00 | 13.25 | 30% | 7.5% | 25.0% | .09 |
The Lions came into the playoffs extremely hot, but in their four playoff games they have looked like the Orlando City of the early season, which struggled to find the net with consistency. It is a small sample, and the competition is fiercer in the playoffs than the regular season, but what stands out to me is that the quality of the shot locations has decreased by nearly 20% (look at the decrease in npxG/Shot in the playoffs as compared to the games from July onward) and, probably unsurprisingly, the conversion rates have decreased as well. However, the Lions are not the only team experiencing a postseason decline, as evidenced by the chart showing the change in each statistic from the regular season to the playoffs:
| Games | Goals/Game | Shots/Game | SoT% | Goal Conversion (Shots) | Goal Conversion (SoT) | npxG/Shot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Four Teams | +0.34 | -0.15 | -0.3% | +2.6% | +7.7% | Same |
| LA Galaxy | +3.00 | +1.29 | +17.5% | +18.0% | +20.7% | +.04 |
| Other Three | -0.45 | -0.56 | -6.7% | -2.9% | -2.6% | -.02 |
If you look broadly at the last four teams, there is more green than red (first row), but as you can see from the subsequent two rows, it is really that the Galaxy have been full of shooting stars (see what I did there?) and the other three teams have performed worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. The good news is that Orlando City is not alone in having playoff struggles. The bad news is that every game in the playoffs is a must-win game, so the Lions need to figure this out right now.
Or do they?
Soccer is the rare game where a team can hold its opponent scoreless and still get knocked out of the playoffs, but giving up zero goals guarantees at least a chance in a shootout, and when you have Pedro Gallese and Rodrigo Schlegel, your chances are good that you can win that shootout. Orlando City has posted shutouts in three of the four playoff games, and while the team’s offense has slipped in productivity, the defense has made up for it by giving up just one goal in 360 minutes of playoff action (plus stoppage time). If we look at the same type of stats for Orlando City’s opponents that we did for the Lions’ own attackers, we can see that while the offense slipped from scoring 1.65 goals per game during the regular season to a flat 1.00, a 39% decline, the defense has more than made up for it:
| Games | Goals/Game | Shots/Game | SoT% | Goal Conversion (Shots) | Goal Conversion (SoT) | npxG/Shot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Regular Season | 1.47 | 11.21 | 34% | 13.1% | 39.1% | .11 |
| Playoffs | 0.25 | 9.00 | 25% | 2.8% | 11.1% | .08 |
The comparative for Orlando City’s opponents is an 83% decrease in goals scored per game, an astounding decline and one that is a testament to the the whole team on how the Lions are limiting the opposing offenses. Atlanta United did not even get one shot on target all game, and while Charlotte did actually put the ball in the net, it only did so once in 270 minutes. Orlando City is limiting opponents to fewer shots per game, and the shots allowed are from locations that have historically produced fewer goals β an excellent combination.
As the Lions enter their first-ever MLS Eastern Conference final, the offense is chugging along while the defense is going full throttle, but I think a breakout is coming for the offense. This group has started nearly every game together for months, and I think the players will use their familiarity to break out of their mini slump and return to their high flying ways in the most important MLS game in the club’s history. Thus far this season, Orlando City has lost and drawn its two games with the Red Bulls, with both of those matches coming before the July turnaround, and I believe the Lions will complete the full results set and win the third one at Inter&Co Stadium this weekend.
My daughter is 3-0-0 in the three games she has ever attended , and she will be there in the stands, cheering on the Lions Saturday night. I am not saying that her attendance is the only reason that Orlando City will win, but I am not not saying it either.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Flashback Friday: July 4, 2023 vs. Toronto FC
Let’s rewind to an Independence Day affair that had plenty of offensive fireworks.
The United States Men’s National Team picked up a gritty, resilient 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 on Wednesday, and will now face Belgium in a rematch of the 2014 World Cup Round of 16 next Monday. While we patiently wait for that game, it’s time to continue our Friday tradition of revisiting some classic Orlando City games from years past.
Last week, we rewound to a high octane affair against the Chicago Fire in late June 2022, that saw the Lions douse Chicago’s flames and pick up a much-needed 4-2 victory. Today, let’s hop in the time machine and travel back to Independence Day 2023, when Toronto FC came to town.
At the time of Toronto’s visit, things were going relatively smoothly for OCSC. The team was riding a three-match unbeaten streak and had scored five goals across those three games. Oscar Pareja lined up his team in its customary 4-2-3-1, with Pedro Gallese in goal; a back line of Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Antonio Carlos, and Kyle Smith; Wilder Cartagena and Cesar Araujo in the double pivot; Ivan Angulo, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres in the attacking midfield; and Duncan McGuire up top.
Orlando very nearly got a goal a little under 10 minutes into the game. Former OCSC goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh knocked down a cross in front of the net, and while Pereyra was first to the ball, he could only blast it over the bar with the goal at his mercy. Fortunately, that miss would not come back to haunt the Lions, who bagged the game’s first goal in the 16th minute. Angulo sucked defenders toward him on the left edge of the box before releasing Santos out wide. The fullback played a peach of a first-time, curling cross to the back post, where Araujo was waiting to power a diving header into the side netting at the far post for his first league goal.
That goal broke the game open, and Orlando got another goal six minutes later to double the advantage. It initially looked like a carbon copy of the first goal, with Santos out in space on the left side of the box, sending in a curled cross. The ball deflected off a defender and came in low toward the goal. Ranjitsingh waited for the ball instead of going to claim it, and that allowed McGuire to nip in front of him and get a touch on the ball to sneak it in at the near post.
Orlando nearly got even more goals inside the half hour, with Torres and McGuire both going close in quick succession. Federico Bernardeschi smashed a shot off the post in the 28th minute, and the Lions seemed to be losing focus a little bit, with the hydration break a welcome pause in play when it came. OCSC came out of the pause well, and Pereyra put Angulo through in the 36th minute, but the Colombian couldn’t bring the ball under control and fashion a shooting chance.
Orlando led in every meaningful statistical category at halftime. The Lions had more possession (55.8%-44.2%), shots (6-2), shots on goal (2-0), corners (4-2), and passing accuracy (89.5%-85%). Most importantly, they led 2-0 on the scoreboard.
Toronto tried to change things at halftime by introducing three substitutes, but Orlando settled back into the game quickly and negated the efforts of interim TFC manager Terry Dunfield. Angulo and Torres forced Ranjitsingh into a pair of saves in the 53rd and 55th minutes, and the Lions tried to press their advantage by sending on Ramiro Enrique and Martin Ojeda in the 57th minute for McGuire and Pereyra.
The game then changed in a big way in the 62nd minute. Cartagena and Bernardeschi exchanged words after a turnover, and the Italian winger put Cartagena on the ground with the help of a little theatrics from the midfielder. Bernardeschi had already been yellow carded in the 47th minute for a foul on Smith, and the altercation with Wilder saw him receive a second yellow and his marching orders to go along with it.
With TFC down to 10 men, the Lions started to tee off at goal. Ojeda came close to getting the team’s third in the 69th minute, with Enrique doing the same in the 71st but missing just wide. When the goal finally came, it was from the unlikely foot of Dagur Dan Thorhallsson, who had been subbed into the game alongside Ercan Kara in the 68th minute.
Thorhallsson made a great run behind the defense in the 77th minute, and Araujo picked him out well. Ranjitsingh came out to try to play sweeper-keeper, but DDT beat him to the ball easily, touched it around the former Lion, and rolled it into the empty net to score his first MLS goal and make it 3-0.
Toronto had a halfway decent chance to pull one back in the 82nd minute, but Brandon Servania’s long-distance attempt at chipping Gallese ended up missing high and settling on the roof of the net. Kara then iced the game in the 84th minute. Araujo fired a pass to Ojeda at the top of the box, and even though he had trouble bringing it under control, he had the presence of mind to backheel it toward goal for the big Austrian to pounce on and fire a low, hard shot into the net for 4-0.
Ojeda nearly got a goal of his own two minutes later but had a great effort saved in what was the last truly dangerous moment of the game.
As was the case at halftime, when the final whistle blew, the Lions had created plenty of fireworks on both the scoreboard and the stat sheet. OCSC finished with more possession (59.6%-40.4%), shots (18-6), shots on target (9-0), corners (8-2), and passing accuracy (91%-84.8%).
Marcus Mitchell had Player Grades for this one, and he named Araujo the Man of the Match with a grade of 8 out of 10 for his one-goal/one-assist effort. The other high performers on the night were Antonio Carlos, and Cartagena, who each graded out at 7.5 out of 10.
That’ll do it for this week’s trip down memory lane. We’ve been getting spoiled lately, with Orlando putting up four goals in back-to-back time machine games, and it’s made for an enjoyable glimpse into years gone by. With any luck, next week’s edition will be similarly entertaining. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 7/3/26
Orlando Pride visit Angel City tonight, NWSL free agents to watch, Portugal and Spain advance, and more.
Happy Friday, Mane Landers! I don’t have many plans this holiday weekend beyond enjoying some soccer and indulging myself in a few hot dogs to celebrate. It should be a fun weekend, but make sure to stay safe out there if you plan on setting off any fireworks. For now though, let’s get to the links!
Orlando Pride Take On Angel City FC Tonight
The NWSL resumes today and the Orlando Pride will play against Angel City FC at 10 p.m. in their first match since a 3-1 win over Bay FC on May 29. That win capped off a six-game month for the Pride, including a stretch of three straight road games. Meanwhile, Angel City parted ways with Alex Straus over the break after only winning once in May, and tonight’s match will be Leif Gunnar Smerud’s first since being named interim head coach. It can be tough playing an opponent with a new coach, but hopefully the Pride can bring all three points back to Orlando.
Top NWSL Free Agents to Watch
Free agency is officially underway in the NWSL and the list of players with contracts expiring at the end of the year includes some of the league’s best players. Orlando Pride star Marta was listed as one of the top free agents to watch, though I would be pretty shocked if she plays for another NWSL club if she leaves Orlando after this season. Leicy Santos, Debinha, and Rose Lavelle are other skilled attackers who will become free agents, but Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger is sure to have plenty of clubs reaching out for her talents as well.
Portugal and Spain Advance in World Cup
This World Cup hasn’t been short on excitement and that continued with Portugal’s 2-1 win against Croatia. After a scoreless first half, Croatia took the lead thanks to a goal from Ivan Perisic, but Cristiano Ronaldo equalized from the penalty spot and the game was moments away from heading to extra time. Goncalo Ramos gave Portugal the goal it needed to advance deep in stoppage time, but Croatia nearly came back with a goal that was disallowed due to an offside call. Spain cruised to a 3-0 win against Austria to book its spot in the round of 16 as well. Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice for his second brace of the tournament, with Marc Cucurella assisting on both of his goals. Spain and Portugal will square off in the next round in what should be a fantastic match. Switzerland and Algeria kicked off late.
The round of 32 wraps up today with a trio of matches, starting with Egypt’s game against Australia. Cape Verde will then look to shock the world when it plays Argentina, and the late game will be between Colombia and Ghana.
Columbus Crew Sign New Designated Player
The Columbus Crew have signed Spanish midfielder Brais Mendez to a Designated Player contract through the 2028-2029 season with a club option for the 2029-2030 season. Mendez has spent the past four La Liga seasons with Real Sociedad, recording 33 goals and 24 assists in 166 appearances. He gives the crew some additional firepower as reports swirl regarding Diego Rossi’s departure for CF Monterrey. While maybe not in the same headline-grabbing tier of MLS summer signings like Antoine Griezmann or Robert Lewandowski, Mendez is a big addition to the league as the Eastern Conference arms race continues.
Free Kicks
- Kissimmee SC of the United Premier Soccer League thanked Orlando City for hosting a friendly between the two sides.
- CF Montreal sent $2.1 million in General Allocation Money to Austin FC in exchange for midfielder Dani Pereira. Selected with the first overall pick in the 2021 MLS SuperDraft, Pereira has contributed six goals and 23 assists in 165 appearances across all competitions for Austin.
- Real Salt Lake reportedly rejected a transfer bid around $3.5 million from CF Monterrey for midfielder Diego Luna.
- American winger Emma Sears reportedly requested a trade from Racing Louisville, although the club is not reportedly interested in a midseason transfer.
- The United States Men’s National Team’s win over Bosnia and Herzegovina had record viewership. Understandably so, too, as I spent most of the match pacing around my living room.
- MFK Karvina, which won the Czech Cup to claim a spot in the fourth round of Europa League qualifying, has been banned from European competitions next season by UEFA for match fixing.
- British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stated that pubs in England will stay open until 5 a.m. there on the night of England’s World Cup match against Mexico.
- Santi Cazorla has announced his retirement at age 41 after spending the past three seasons with his boyhood club, Oviedo.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 7/2/26
USMNT shuts out Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kat Asman loaned to Denver Summit FC, MLS transfer news, and more.
Wednesday nights are starting to feel magical. Orlando City has thrived this year when playing on Wednesdays, and now the United States Men’s National Team has provided us with a reason to tackle this Thursday at full force. Before we dive into that result and the rest of today’s links, let’s all wish a happy birthday to Orlando City defender Tahir Reid-Brown!
USMNT Survives Red Card to Advance
The U.S. won 2-0 against Bosnia and Herzegovina in an emotional rollercoaster of a match in the World Cup’s round of 32. Folarin Balogun got the U.S. on the board at a crucial time right before halftime by scoring his third goal of the tournament. But the game flipped on its head in the second half when Balogun was shown a harsh red card by the referee after video review for a foul when he accidentally came down on the back of an opponent’s foot. The Yanks fought hard to make up for the difference of being down a player and doubled their lead after earning a free kick right outside the box. Malik Tillman’s shot went up and over the wall and into the net for a goal U.S. fans will be replaying over and over again.
The U.S. did well to grind out the win after that second goal, with former Lion Alex Freeman doing his part on defense to help shut out Bosnia and Herzegovina. It was a memorable win, and now the U.S. will turn its focus to its round-of-16 matchup against Belgium on Monday.
Pride Loan Goalkeeper Kat Asman to Denver Summit
The Orlando Pride loaned goalkeeper Kat Asman to the Denver Summit for the remainder of the 2026 NWSL season. Asman is coming off of a loan with Lexington SC in the Gainbridge Super League, where she played every minute of the season to help Lexington win the title. She posted 11 clean sheets with Lexington last season and won the league’s Golden Glove as well. Asman has yet to make an appearance for the Pride since joining prior to the 2025 season, and her contract expires at the end of the season. She now heads to Denver, where Abby Smith has done well in goal as the expansion team’s starter.
MLS Transfer News Roundup
Real Salt Lake sent $625,000 in General Allocation Money (GAM) to Atlanta United in exchange for winger Saba Lobjanidze and a third-round pick in the 2028 MLS SuperDraft, with another $100,000 in GAM going Atlanta’s way if he re-signs with Real Salt Lake. The Columbus Crew fully acquired defender Andres Herrera from River Plate after an extended loan, signing him to a contract through the 2028-2029 season. The LA Galaxy transferred defender Mauricio Cuevas to Santos Laguna, the New England Revolution added forward Wilson Harris, and Sporting Kansas City signed center back Moises Mosquera from FC Juarez. The San Jose Earthquakes are reportedly close to signing Scottish goalkeeper Angus Gunn, with Daniel heading to FC Dallas in a trade if that happens. It’s somewhat surprising considering Daniel has done well to help San Jose only concede 15 goals this season.
European Nations Move On After Dramatic Comebacks
This World Cup continues to deliver thrilling games during this new round-of-32 phase. Senegal looked certain to go through to the next round until Belgium scored a pair of goals after the 85th minute to knot the game at 2-2 and send it into extra time. The game was decided by a penalty, but not in a shootout, as a foul in the box resulted in Youri Tielemans scoring from the spot to give Belgium the victory. In Atlanta, Harry Kane scored twice to rescue England in a 2-1 win over the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Brian Cipanga gave the Congo an early lead, but Kane struck twice in the second half, with his winner being one of the best goals of the tournament so far.
England is now set to face Mexico at the Azteca on Sunday in what should be a great game. As for today’s action, Orlando City winger Marco Pasalic and Croatia will take on Portugal in a matchup between European heavyweights. The winner of that match will face whoever prevails today between Spain and Austria, with Switzerland and Algeria squaring off in the late night match.
Free Kicks
- Orlando City B remained in eighth in the MLS NEXT Pro power rankings following its draw and shootout loss to Columbus Crew 2.
- Boston Legacy FC bolstered its defense by signing American center back Deja Davis on a free transfer. Davis has spent the past two seasons with Paris FC.
- Bayern Munich signed Moroccan attacker Ismael Saibari from PSV Eindhoven for a transfer fee reported to be around $63 million. Saibari has scored three goals so far for Morocco this World Cup and was named Eredivisie Player of the Year after recording 15 goals and eight assists last season.
- Despite its precarious financial situation, Chelsea signed Italian fullback Marco Palestra from Atalanta for a reported $57 million transfer fee. The 21-year-old showed plenty of pace with Atalanta and signed a seven-year contract with Chelsea.
- Sebastian Beccacece stepped down as Ecuador’s head coach following the team’s loss to Mexico at the World Cup.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!
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