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Orlando City’s Playoff Offense Needs to Match Its Prolific Defense

A comparison of Orlando City’s offensive and defensive performances in the regular season and playoffs, and a conference final prediction.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City / Jeremy Reper

A few weeks ago I wrote about the final four NWSL teams and what the Pride would need to do to be the last team standing, and two weeks later the Pride won the NWSL Championship. I am not saying that there is a direct explicit cause-and-effect connection between the two, and that the sole reason the Pride won was because of me and what I wrote, but I am not not saying it either.

I am absolutely not saying that. Out loud.

Seriously though, congratulations to the Pride. What an amazing season they had and they thoroughly deserve to call themselves champions. As my colleague Sam Denker wrote, they have built something special and sustainable.

Staying in the same stadium and color, but moving to MLS, Orlando City has reached the same place the Pride were two weekends ago — the final four of its league playoffs. In contrast to the NWSL, where the top four teams during the regular season made the final four, on the MLS side, it is the teams ranked fourth (LA Galaxy), seventh (Seattle), ninth (Orlando City) and 14th (the New York Red Bulls). There is a Wicked joke in here somewhere about Inter Miami getting splashed with cold water in the first round of the playoffs and melting away, but I will leave it at that and move on to focusing on the best MLS team in Florida, a team that actually advanced not once, but twice in the playoffs.

Orlando City has technically won three of its four games in these playoffs, as MLS counts penalty kick shootout wins as full game wins in the best-of-three, first-round matchups, but it has not been pretty. The offense that was averaging nearly 2.5 goals scored per game from July through the end of the regular season is averaging a paltry 1.0 goals per game in the playoffs, and while that has been enough for the Lions to squeeze through and advance to the conference finals, it would be a whole lot nicer if Orlando City’s offense was performing more like, say, the LA Galaxy, who are averaging a cool 5.0 goals per game in the playoffs (yes, you read that correctly).

Perhaps the Lions will score the required 21 goals against the Red Bulls to lift their playoff average from 1.0 to 5.0, but probably not, and at this point I would be happy with a two-goal game and would be extremely thankful (timely reference alert) for a three-goal game, especially considering how well the defense has been playing.

We will get to the defense, a positive story, in a moment, but before that I want to show a comparison between Orlando City’s performance during the full regular season, the regular season games from July on, and the four playoff games (own goals are excluded from these stats; all data is from fbref.com):

GamesGoals/GameShots/GameSoT%Goal Conversion (Shots)Goal Conversion (SoT)npxG/Shot
All Regular Season1.6513.1534%12.5%37.1%.10
July and After2.2913.9237%16.5%44.0%.11
Playoffs1.0013.2530%7.5%25.0%.09
SoT = Shots on Target and npxG = non-penalty expected goals

The Lions came into the playoffs extremely hot, but in their four playoff games they have looked like the Orlando City of the early season, which struggled to find the net with consistency. It is a small sample, and the competition is fiercer in the playoffs than the regular season, but what stands out to me is that the quality of the shot locations has decreased by nearly 20% (look at the decrease in npxG/Shot in the playoffs as compared to the games from July onward) and, probably unsurprisingly, the conversion rates have decreased as well. However, the Lions are not the only team experiencing a postseason decline, as evidenced by the chart showing the change in each statistic from the regular season to the playoffs:

GamesGoals/GameShots/GameSoT%Goal Conversion (Shots)Goal Conversion (SoT)npxG/Shot
Last Four Teams+0.34-0.15-0.3%+2.6%+7.7%Same
LA Galaxy+3.00+1.29+17.5%+18.0%+20.7%+.04
Other Three-0.45-0.56-6.7%-2.9%-2.6%-.02
SoT = Shots on Target and npxG = non-penalty expected goals

If you look broadly at the last four teams, there is more green than red (first row), but as you can see from the subsequent two rows, it is really that the Galaxy have been full of shooting stars (see what I did there?) and the other three teams have performed worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. The good news is that Orlando City is not alone in having playoff struggles. The bad news is that every game in the playoffs is a must-win game, so the Lions need to figure this out right now.

Or do they?

Soccer is the rare game where a team can hold its opponent scoreless and still get knocked out of the playoffs, but giving up zero goals guarantees at least a chance in a shootout, and when you have Pedro Gallese and Rodrigo Schlegel, your chances are good that you can win that shootout. Orlando City has posted shutouts in three of the four playoff games, and while the team’s offense has slipped in productivity, the defense has made up for it by giving up just one goal in 360 minutes of playoff action (plus stoppage time). If we look at the same type of stats for Orlando City’s opponents that we did for the Lions’ own attackers, we can see that while the offense slipped from scoring 1.65 goals per game during the regular season to a flat 1.00, a 39% decline, the defense has more than made up for it:

GamesGoals/GameShots/GameSoT%Goal Conversion (Shots)Goal Conversion (SoT)npxG/Shot
All Regular Season1.4711.2134%13.1%39.1%.11
Playoffs0.259.0025%2.8%11.1%.08
SoT = Shots on Target and npxG = non-penalty expected goals

The comparative for Orlando City’s opponents is an 83% decrease in goals scored per game, an astounding decline and one that is a testament to the the whole team on how the Lions are limiting the opposing offenses. Atlanta United did not even get one shot on target all game, and while Charlotte did actually put the ball in the net, it only did so once in 270 minutes. Orlando City is limiting opponents to fewer shots per game, and the shots allowed are from locations that have historically produced fewer goals — an excellent combination.

As the Lions enter their first-ever MLS Eastern Conference final, the offense is chugging along while the defense is going full throttle, but I think a breakout is coming for the offense. This group has started nearly every game together for months, and I think the players will use their familiarity to break out of their mini slump and return to their high flying ways in the most important MLS game in the club’s history. Thus far this season, Orlando City has lost and drawn its two games with the Red Bulls, with both of those matches coming before the July turnaround, and I believe the Lions will complete the full results set and win the third one at Inter&Co Stadium this weekend.

My daughter is 3-0-0 in the three games she has ever attended , and she will be there in the stands, cheering on the Lions Saturday night. I am not saying that her attendance is the only reason that Orlando City will win, but I am not not saying it either.

Vamos Orlando!

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Joe Parra

    November 28, 2024 at 5:46 pm

    The team has not “slipped” on offense a lot. The team played Charlotte 3 of the 4 playoff games. Everyone will score less against Charlotte then against Miami. Charlotte parks the bus as a regular tactic.

    • Steve Winsteel

      November 29, 2024 at 1:06 pm

      Exactly, plus Atlanta also parked the bus so we played four matches against teams that absolutely tried nothing more than sitting back and gumming up the works.

      While NYRB also gives up 70% possession, they’re a high pressing team and if you beat the first two waves, you have green pastures and few defenders. That bodes well IF we attack the press right.

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Orlando City

2024 Orlando City Season in Review: Jack Lynn

The young striker played a career high in minutes for Orlando City and played in all four
competitions.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Jack Lynn joined Orlando City through the 2022 MLS SuperDraft, when he was selected in the first round by the Lions with the No. 18 overall pick out of Notre Dame. He primarily played with OCB during the 2022 and 2023 seasons, scoring 15 goals in 2022 and 19 in 2023 while earning the MLS NEXT Pro MVP for that season. He was a depth player for most of the 2024 season with Orlando City, but late in the season he returned to playing more frequently with OCB, and quickly found his goal-scoring form once again with the Young Lions.

Let’s take a look back at Lynn’s 2024 season.

Statistical Breakdown

After two seasons of double-digit goal scoring in MLS NEXT Pro, the young forward looked to be a leading candidate to serve as the backup to Duncan McGuire, and in the opening few months he was frequently in the game day squad. However, the signing of Luis Muriel meant that he often was an unused substitute as the Lions used McGuire and Muriel as their strikers. Ramiro Enrique then returned from a prolonged absence and took over the starting spot with McGuire as the primary sub off the bench, and in the second half of the season, Lynn did not dress for Orlando City as frequently. He got some starts for OCB and scored four goals and had one assist in his eight games played with the Young Lions.

For Orlando City, Lynn appeared primarily in MLS regular-season games, making 11 appearances with two starts, playing 253 minutes. He took six shots, putting three on target and scoring two goals. He passed at a 66.7% completion percentage but did not have any key passes or assists. On the defensive side deuces were wild, as he won two tackles, made two blocks and had two clearances. He committed five fouls, drew two on the opposition, and was not booked.

Lynn also made one appearance late in the Lions’ final MLS playoff match, coming in for two minutes and recording just one touch of the ball, with no shots, passes attempted or defensive actions, and he did not receive a booking.

During Concacaf Champions Cup play, the Notre Dame product came off the bench in both games against Cavalry FC, playing 21 total minutes without a goal contribution, recording one shot that was off target, completing all three of his passes, and suffering one foul. He did not contribute any defensive actions or get booked.

Lynn participated in one Leagues Cup match, subbing in against CF Montréal. He played 12 minutes and did not have a goal contribution or take any shots, but he completed both of his passes, with one being a key pass. On the defensive side, he made two recoveries and committed one foul, but he wasn’t booked.

Best Game

The 24-year-old striker earned his first-ever starting nod for Orlando City on March 23 against Austin FC, and in the 42nd minute, he scored his first MLS goal. He timed his run perfectly to get wide open at the back post and finished with a powerful header off a cross from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson to give the Lions a 1-0 lead.

Lynn went on to play 73 minutes, completing 10 of his 13 passes (76.9%) and adding one additional off-target shot. He contributed a tackle and a clearance on defense. Orlando City won the game 2-0, making Lynn’s goal in the opening half the game-winner. Head Coach Óscar Pareja said he was pleased with Lynn’s performance, praising him in the post-game press conference:

“(Jack) is a player who patiently has been waiting (for) his opportunity,” Pareja said. “I could say that maybe he should have more games at this point with the way he has performed in the second group and what he has achieved as an individual. He’s very lethal and he has goals. Today, he opened the game. Jack’s discipline and constant effort has paid off and we’re happy.”

2024 Final Grade

With only 288 minutes on the field across all competitions in 2024, Lynn did not play enough minutes to get a grade for the season, receiving an incomplete from The Mane Land staff. Still, he showed that he was capable of contributing when called upon to play first-team minutes.

2025 Outlook

After watching how prolific Lynn was in MLS NEXT Pro in 2023, and then once again this season when he returned to play a few matches with OCB, Lynn has clearly proven that he is above the level of play in that league. In limited minutes at the MLS level, he has shown flashes, but based on the substitution patterns as the season went along, it was clear that he was at best the third option at striker. Orlando City appears to be bringing back both Enrique and McGuire, so while they picked up Lynn’s option for 2025 season, I expect that it will be another season similar to 2024, where he is a depth player who primarily comes in off the bench, if he comes in at all.

I believe that Lynn is an MLS-caliber player, as he is an excellent finisher of the “fox in the box” ilk, but my projection is that 2025 will look similar to 2024 and he will be fighting for minutes off the bench at the MLS level.


Previous Season in Review Articles (Date Posted)

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 12/11/24

Orlando City’s protected players, Orlando Pride roster update, the USMNT is returning to Inter&Co Stadium, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. The season might be over, but there’s still plenty of news to be found. I’m glad that we have all the movies and specials to watch since there are no MLS or NWSL matches. There are quite a few that my family watch each year including Elf, Scrooged, and of course, Die Hard. Let me know your favorites in the comments below. Let’s get to the links.

Orlando City Protected List Released

The addition of San Diego SC to MLS means another expansion draft this off-season. Yesterday, Orlando City released its protected players list. There are a total of 19 players on the list, though seven of those are automatically protected due to either Homegrown or Generation Adidas status. San Diego will be able to pick up to five players from across the league, but only one from any given club. There aren’t many surprises in which players Orlando City chose to protect.

Pride End-of-Season Roster Update

Following a historic season that saw the club win both the NWSL Shield and the 2024 NWSL Cup, the Pride have released their end of season roster update. We already knew that Celia, Carrie Lawrence, and Megan Montefusco retired. Given how the club works its contracts, often re-signing players during the season, there weren’t a lot of surprises. Marta and Evelina Duljan were the two players out of contract, and we now know that Duljan won’t be returning, while the club is negotiating a deal that would keep Marta in Orlando.

USMNT Returning to Inter&Co Stadium

The USMNT is heading back to the City Beautiful, as the team will play Costa Rica Jan. 22 at Inter&Co Stadium. Kickoff for the match will be 7 p.m., allowing fans in the Orlando area to make it after work. It will be the second match in Florida, as the Americans will take on Venezuela Jan. 18 at Chase Stadium in Ft. Lauderdale. Pre-sale tickets went on sale Tuesday, and ticket sales for the general public start Friday.

USWNT vs. Brazil

If you were hoping for a rematch of the 2024 Women’s World Cup final between the USWNT and the Brazilian Women’s National Team, you are in luck. The two teams will square off on April 5 and April 8, 2025 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles and at PayPal Park in San Jose, respectively. The match at SoFi Stadium will be the first soccer match played in the venue, which will also host matches for the 2026 World Cup.

Free Kicks

  • It’s no surprise to those of us who work with the Pride regularly that Jackie Maynard, Lucas Medeiros, and the rest of Orlando’s comms staff was named the first-ever NWSL Communications Team of the Year winner. We congratulate Jackie and her team and look forward to continuing to work with a great group of professionals.
  • Take a trip down memory lane with this compilation of Facundo Torres’ goals from 2024.
  • Today, FIFA will award the 2034 World Cup to Saudi Arabia. The circumstances leading up to this “decision” are exactly as forthright, transparent, and without any hint of shenanigans as one expects from FIFA. Give me a minute, my eyes got stuck in the back of my head because of how hard I rolled them.
  • In related news, Norway plans to protest the decision to award the 2034 World Cup to Saudi Arabia and will abstain on the basis that not enough has been done to protect human rights at the event.
  • Orlando City wasn’t the only team to drop its list of protected rosters. Here are the lists for every MLS club.
  • Plenty of teams were in action in the UEFA Champions League Tuesday. Liverpool won its sixth consecutive first round match 1-0 over Girona, and Mbappe scored and got injured in Real Madrid’s 3-2 victory over Atalanta.

That will do it for today. Keep checking in for our Season in Review pieces for both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 12/10/24

Facundo Torres linked with move to Palmeiras, Pride players in FIFPRO Women’s World 11, Amanda Allen suffers injury, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Tuesday, everyone. I hope your week is getting off to a good start and that you’re on top of any Christmas shopping that you still need to do, because I’m just now realizing that I’ve done exactly zero of mine. Alas, the only way out is through. As usual, we have a lot to talk through this morning, so let’s get into the links.

Facundo Torres Linked With Palmeiras

Tom Bogert reported on Monday evening that Orlando City has agreed to a deal with Brazilian club Palmeiras for the transfer of Facundo Torres. While Bogert says the two clubs have reached an agreement, the transfer is still pending as Torres and Palmeiras still need to agree on personal terms. While no price tag was given, the fee would reportedly eclipse the $9.5 million fee that West Bromwich Albion paid for Daryl Dike, which is OCSC’s current outbound transfer record. Torres is the club’s record signing, as he joined from Penarol for roughly $7.5 million, and has been central to the team’s success ever since. We will bring you more from this story as it develops.

Familiar Faces in FIFPRO Women’s World 11

FIFA announced the 2024 FIFPRO Women’s World 11 on Monday and there are two familiar faces in the lineup, as Marta and Barbra Banda were named to the team. This is the third time in Marta’s career that she has been chosen for the award, which is the only global player award decided exclusively by the players themselves. Banda is included in the team for the first time, with this also being the very first time that an African player has made the team. Both players had incredible seasons for the Orlando Pride and were instrumental in the team winning its first two pieces of silverware. Congratulations to both for all their hard work and justified recognition!

Amanda Allen Suffers Injury

The Orlando Pride announced on Monday that forward Amanda Allen has suffered a torn labrum in her right shoulder and will undergo surgery to repair it. As a result, Allen’s loan with USL Super League team Lexington Sporting Club has been terminated, and she has been placed on the season-ending injury list. It’s a tough break for Allen, who became the youngest player to debut for the team back during the 2023 season, as she was getting good minutes and experience on loan. We wish her all the best and hope to see her back on the field soon!

Christian Pulisic Injury News

AC Milan announced on Monday that United States Men’s National Team forward Christian Pulisic has torn a muscle in his right calf, and will spend time on the sideline. The winger went off injured during the team’s game on Friday, and Milan has said that he could be on the shelf until January. While the USMNT won’t play a competitive game until March’s Concacaf Nations League semifinals, the timing is a tough blow for Pulisic, who has had an excellent start to the season with eight goal contributions in Serie A and three UEFA Champions League goals. Here’s hoping that he makes a speedy recovery.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans who will take part in games this week, so make sure you get everything marked down on your calendar. Things get started later today as Auston Trusty, Cameron Carter-Vickers, and Celtic take on Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League, while Ricardo Pepi, Richy Ledezma, Malik Tillman, and PSV Eindhoven face Brest in the same competition. Tomorrow has Yunus Musah and AC Milan hosting Crvena Zvezda in the Champions League, while Weston McKennie, Tim Weah, and Juventus welcome Manchester City to Allianz Stadium. Things then finish up on Friday as Mark McKenzie and Toulouse host St-Etienne in Ligue 1 play.

MLS Transfer Happenings

We have a lot of MLS transfer moves and roster changes to cover this morning. Cruzeiro has declined the purchase option on FC Cincinnati winger Alvaro Barreal, meaning he has returned to the club following the conclusion of his loan. Expansion side San Diego FC has acquired Tomas Angel and a second-round pick in the 2025 MLS SuperDraft from LAFC in exchange for $200,000 in 2025 General Allocation Money (GAM). Austin FC also bought out Gyasi Zardes’ contract, making the 10th-highest scorer in MLS history a free agent.

The Colorado Rapids signed center backs Ian Murphy and Chidozie Awaziem from FC Cincinnati in exchange for $1 million in General Allocation Money. Tom Bogert is also reporting that Bournemouth is finalizing a deal to sign American center back Matai Akinmboni from D.C. United in a deal worth up to $2.5 million. Finally, in the wildest piece of MLS transfer news I’ve seen in awhile, I simply present the following tweet.

Free Kicks

That’s all I have for this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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