Orlando City
Orlando City’s Playoff Offense Needs to Match Its Prolific Defense
A comparison of Orlando City’s offensive and defensive performances in the regular season and playoffs, and a conference final prediction.
A few weeks ago I wrote about the final four NWSL teams and what the Pride would need to do to be the last team standing, and two weeks later the Pride won the NWSL Championship. I am not saying that there is a direct explicit cause-and-effect connection between the two, and that the sole reason the Pride won was because of me and what I wrote, but I am not not saying it either.
I am absolutely not saying that. Out loud.
Seriously though, congratulations to the Pride. What an amazing season they had and they thoroughly deserve to call themselves champions. As my colleague Sam Denker wrote, they have built something special and sustainable.
Staying in the same stadium and color, but moving to MLS, Orlando City has reached the same place the Pride were two weekends ago โ the final four of its league playoffs. In contrast to the NWSL, where the top four teams during the regular season made the final four, on the MLS side, it is the teams ranked fourth (LA Galaxy), seventh (Seattle), ninth (Orlando City) and 14th (the New York Red Bulls). There is a Wicked joke in here somewhere about Inter Miami getting splashed with cold water in the first round of the playoffs and melting away, but I will leave it at that and move on to focusing on the best MLS team in Florida, a team that actually advanced not once, but twice in the playoffs.
Orlando City has technically won three of its four games in these playoffs, as MLS counts penalty kick shootout wins as full game wins in the best-of-three, first-round matchups, but it has not been pretty. The offense that was averaging nearly 2.5 goals scored per game from July through the end of the regular season is averaging a paltry 1.0 goals per game in the playoffs, and while that has been enough for the Lions to squeeze through and advance to the conference finals, it would be a whole lot nicer if Orlando City’s offense was performing more like, say, the LA Galaxy, who are averaging a cool 5.0 goals per game in the playoffs (yes, you read that correctly).
Perhaps the Lions will score the required 21 goals against the Red Bulls to lift their playoff average from 1.0 to 5.0, but probably not, and at this point I would be happy with a two-goal game and would be extremely thankful (timely reference alert) for a three-goal game, especially considering how well the defense has been playing.
We will get to the defense, a positive story, in a moment, but before that I want to show a comparison between Orlando City’s performance during the full regular season, the regular season games from July on, and the four playoff games (own goals are excluded from these stats; all data is from fbref.com):
| Games | Goals/Game | Shots/Game | SoT% | Goal Conversion (Shots) | Goal Conversion (SoT) | npxG/Shot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Regular Season | 1.65 | 13.15 | 34% | 12.5% | 37.1% | .10 |
| July and After | 2.29 | 13.92 | 37% | 16.5% | 44.0% | .11 |
| Playoffs | 1.00 | 13.25 | 30% | 7.5% | 25.0% | .09 |
The Lions came into the playoffs extremely hot, but in their four playoff games they have looked like the Orlando City of the early season, which struggled to find the net with consistency. It is a small sample, and the competition is fiercer in the playoffs than the regular season, but what stands out to me is that the quality of the shot locations has decreased by nearly 20% (look at the decrease in npxG/Shot in the playoffs as compared to the games from July onward) and, probably unsurprisingly, the conversion rates have decreased as well. However, the Lions are not the only team experiencing a postseason decline, as evidenced by the chart showing the change in each statistic from the regular season to the playoffs:
| Games | Goals/Game | Shots/Game | SoT% | Goal Conversion (Shots) | Goal Conversion (SoT) | npxG/Shot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Four Teams | +0.34 | -0.15 | -0.3% | +2.6% | +7.7% | Same |
| LA Galaxy | +3.00 | +1.29 | +17.5% | +18.0% | +20.7% | +.04 |
| Other Three | -0.45 | -0.56 | -6.7% | -2.9% | -2.6% | -.02 |
If you look broadly at the last four teams, there is more green than red (first row), but as you can see from the subsequent two rows, it is really that the Galaxy have been full of shooting stars (see what I did there?) and the other three teams have performed worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. The good news is that Orlando City is not alone in having playoff struggles. The bad news is that every game in the playoffs is a must-win game, so the Lions need to figure this out right now.
Or do they?
Soccer is the rare game where a team can hold its opponent scoreless and still get knocked out of the playoffs, but giving up zero goals guarantees at least a chance in a shootout, and when you have Pedro Gallese and Rodrigo Schlegel, your chances are good that you can win that shootout. Orlando City has posted shutouts in three of the four playoff games, and while the team’s offense has slipped in productivity, the defense has made up for it by giving up just one goal in 360 minutes of playoff action (plus stoppage time). If we look at the same type of stats for Orlando City’s opponents that we did for the Lions’ own attackers, we can see that while the offense slipped from scoring 1.65 goals per game during the regular season to a flat 1.00, a 39% decline, the defense has more than made up for it:
| Games | Goals/Game | Shots/Game | SoT% | Goal Conversion (Shots) | Goal Conversion (SoT) | npxG/Shot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Regular Season | 1.47 | 11.21 | 34% | 13.1% | 39.1% | .11 |
| Playoffs | 0.25 | 9.00 | 25% | 2.8% | 11.1% | .08 |
The comparative for Orlando City’s opponents is an 83% decrease in goals scored per game, an astounding decline and one that is a testament to the the whole team on how the Lions are limiting the opposing offenses. Atlanta United did not even get one shot on target all game, and while Charlotte did actually put the ball in the net, it only did so once in 270 minutes. Orlando City is limiting opponents to fewer shots per game, and the shots allowed are from locations that have historically produced fewer goals โ an excellent combination.
As the Lions enter their first-ever MLS Eastern Conference final, the offense is chugging along while the defense is going full throttle, but I think a breakout is coming for the offense. This group has started nearly every game together for months, and I think the players will use their familiarity to break out of their mini slump and return to their high flying ways in the most important MLS game in the club’s history. Thus far this season, Orlando City has lost and drawn its two games with the Red Bulls, with both of those matches coming before the July turnaround, and I believe the Lions will complete the full results set and win the third one at Inter&Co Stadium this weekend.
My daughter is 3-0-0 in the three games she has ever attended , and she will be there in the stands, cheering on the Lions Saturday night. I am not saying that her attendance is the only reason that Orlando City will win, but I am not not saying it either.
Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/28/24
Orlando City prepares for Eastern Conference final, details revealed on Osceola Heritage Park changes, MLS roster changes, and more.
Happy Thanksgiving, Mane Landers! I don’t have too much preparation today beyond putting together some cranberry and brie bites for my family. The baking trials over the past week were more…trialing than expected, but I think I’ve figured out how to make them without giving myself too much stress today. My muffin tin was also a bit bigger than is probably optimal, so they come out more like muffins than anything. Before we dive into today’s links, here’s a picture of an imperfect batch before I realized they need a drizzle that I’ll make today.
Orlando City Prepares for the New York Red Bulls
For the first time in club history, Orlando City will take part in an Eastern Conference final when it hosts the New York Red Bulls on Saturday. It will be the third game between the two teams this year, and the Lions did not win either of the previous two meetings. The past hardly matters now though, as both teams are now just a game away from playing in the MLS Cup final. Head Coach Oscar Pareja spoke on the importance of Saturday’s game and how the Lions are preparing for their last home game of 2024.
Changes Planned For Osceola Heritage Park
Public documents revealed some of the major changes planned for Osceola Heritage Park following the Wilf family’s submitted proposal for parts of the land. The project is estimated to cost close to $1.3 billion and would include expansions for the team’s headquarters, academy, and 18 training fields. There are also plans for apartments, hotels, and restaurants and construction could begin next year. Orlando’s letter of interest in the land was the only one submitted and Osceola County Manager Don Fisher will reportedly recommend that county commissioners proceed with negotiations with the Wilf family.
Eliminated MLS Clubs Make Roster Moves
With only four contenders left in the MLS playoffs, the eliminated teams have turned their attention to getting their rosters ready for 2025. LAFC exercised the options on the contracts for goalkeepers Hugo Lloris and David Ochoa. It declined the option on MLS veteran Kei Kamara’s contract and is in discussions with forward Carlos Vela and defender Aaron Long as well. Former Lion Benji Michel’s contract option with Real Salt Lake was one of many declined by the club. Rubio Rubin, Maikel Chang, and Marcelo Silva won’t be in Salt Lake City next year either. Bongokuhle Hlongwane and Dayne St. Clair predictably had their contract options exercised by Minnesota United, while former Lion Derek Dodson had his declined.
The Columbus Crew will roll into 2025 without Yaw Yeboah or Alexandru Matan, but is keeping a decent amount of players around like Christian Ramirez, Jacen Russell-Rowe, and Patrick Schulte. Luis Suarez and Inter Miami have also agreed to a one-year contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2025.
UEFA Champions League Roundup
The most exciting match from the latest round of Champions League matches was in the Netherlands, with PSV Eindhoven coming back to beat Shakhtar Donetsk 3-2. The Americans shined, as Malik Tillman scored twice to tie things up, and then Ricardo Pepi provided the winner in stoppage time as a substitute. Benfica also had a thrilling 3-2 win thanks to a pair of late assists from Angel Di Maria to beat Monaco.
Real Madrid’s rough tournament continued with a 2-0 loss to Liverpool that included Kylian Mbappe having a penalty kick saved and an injury to Eduardo Camavinga. Borussia Dortmund cruised to a 3-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb, Aston Villa and Juventus battled to a scoreless draw in England, and Ngal’ayel Mukau had a brace in Lille’s 2-1 victory against Bologna. Cameron Carter-Vickers had a rough day after an own goal in Celtic’s 1-1 draw with Club Brugge.
Free Kicks
- Philadelphia Union Sporting Director Ernst Tanner may have revealed that not every MLS team will take part in Leagues Cup next year, which would be a change from its past iterations.
- Ruud van Nistelrooy will reportedly become Leicester City’s next manager. This news comes after his solid and brief stint as Manchester United’s interim head coach.
- It may be Thanksgiving, but there’s still some soccer to check out today in the Europa League. The 18-match slate is highlighted by Tottenham’s clash with Roma and Manchester United’s home game with Bodรธ/Glimt.
- FIFA announced a $50 million legacy fund in collaboration with 2022 World Cup host Qatar and various groups like the World Health Organization, World Trade Organization, and UN Refugee Agency. Amnesty, a human rights group, noted how this legacy fund does not provide aid for the families of the migrant workers affected by the construction for the 2022 World Cup.
- Referee David Coote is under investigation for allegations that he exchanged messages with a fan about giving a yellow card to Leeds United defender Ezgjan Alioski.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Thanksgiving and enjoy plenty of great food and time with friends and family.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/27/24
MLS fines Orlando City, Barbra Banda wins another award, NWSL sets viewership record, and more.
Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers! I don’t know about you, but I’m still buzzing from the Orlando Pride winning the NWSL Championship, and Orlando City advancing to the Eastern Conference final. If you haven’t already make sure to listen to The Mane Land PawedCast that dropped yesterday, and keep an eye out for SkoPurp Soccer: An Orlando Pride PawedCast dropping later today. For now, let’s get to the links, but first, it’s time to wish Orlando City midfielder Martin Ojeda a happy 26th birthday.
DisCo Strikes Again
The MLS Disciplinary Committee issued undisclosed fines against several players from both Orlando City and Atlanta United for violating the leagueโs Mass Confrontation Policy. As this was the third time Orlando City violated the policy, Head Coach Oscar Pareja was fined. This was the second time Atlanta United violated the policy, so interim coach Rob Valentino was also fined. In case you forgot the incident, you can watch the video here.
Banda Wins Another Award
Barbra Banda was named the MVP of the 2024 NWSL Championship on Saturday, and now she has also been named the BBC Women’s Footballer of the Year 2024. Her trophy shelf certainly is getting crowded. Banda was one of five players up for the Footballer of the Year award, and won the award based on votes by the public. As you can tell from the following video, her Pride teammates are very proud of their striker.
Pride (Help) Achieve Another NWSL Record
The NWSL Championship match between the Orlando Pride and the Washington Spirit broke the NWSL viewership record for any NWSL match โ regular season or postseason โ in the league’s history. The match was watched by an average audience of 967,500 viewers on CBS, which doesn’t include those who watched on Paramount+. At its peak, the number of viewers rose to 1.1 million viewers. When you add in the Skills Challenge on Sunday, the total weekend viewership was over 2.5 million.
Champions League Results
Tuesday was a big day in the UEFA Champions League. Christian Pulisic kept up his good form in AC Milan’s 3-2 victory over ล K Slovan Bratislava, scoring in the 21st minute.
In one of the most interesting matches, Feyenoord came back from a three-goal deficit to draw Manchester City 3-3. Robert Lewandowski became only the third player ever to score 100 Champions League goals. Lewandowski scored a brace for Barcelona in the Spanish side’s 3-0 victory over Brest. You can check out the rest of the results here.
Free Kicks
- Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser held up her end of the bargain after losing her wager with Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, lighting up the Frederick Douglass Memorial Bridge in purple.
- Former Pride winger Claire Emslie signed a new two-year contract through 2026 with Angel City FC.
- Inter Miami named Javier Mascherano as head coach of the club. Mascherano, who replaced Gerardo Martino, was most recently head coach of the Argentina U-20 and Olympic teams.
- Olof Mellberg has been named St. Louis City SCโs new head coach. The former Aston Villa and Swedish Men’s National Team captain has coached at several Scandinavian clubs.
- The head coaching carousel continued with New York City FC parting ways with Head Coach Nick Cushing.
- Finally, Orlando City and the Orlando Pride hosted their annual turkey giveaway for families in need. I love the fact that there have been trophies won over the last few years, but it’s also good knowing that the club does stuff like this for the Orlando community.
That will do it for today. I hope you enjoy the holiday tomorrow if you’re with family or friends. No matter what else you do, take care of yourself.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/26/24
Pride celebrate NWSL title, previewing the MLS conference finals, Alyssa Naeher retires from USWNT, and more.
Happy Tuesday, and what a Tuesday it is! The Orlando Pride are NWSL Champions and Orlando City will play in the Eastern Conference final for the very first time. If this isn’t the best weekend that Orlando soccer has ever had, then I sure as hell don’t know what is. We’ve got a lot to talk about this morning though, so let’s get into today’s links!
Orlando Pride Celebrate NWSL Title
The Orlando Pride celebrated the team’s first ever NWSL Championship in style on Monday, with a victory parade down Orange Avenue followed by a celebration at City Hall.
Plenty of people came out and lined the parade route, Marta and the team were presented with a key to the city, and Nov. 25, 2024 was declared “Orlando Pride Day” by Orange County. Congratulations to the Pride!
Examining the MLS Conference Finals
Just three matches remain in the MLS Cup playoffs, so it’s time to turn our attention to the conference finals and what each team needs to do to advance. For Orlando City, it’ll be important to win second balls and for Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena to set the tone in the midfield. On the flip side of things, the New York Red Bulls need Emil Forsberg to show up and make his mark on the game. The Red Bulls haven’t had much of the ball in their last five games, so they need to make the most of their touches when they do have it. Out west, the LA Galaxy need to make sure Gabriel Pec gets on the ball in the final third, while the Seattle Sounders need to stay organized and compact in defense. That’ll be easier said than done against a Galaxy side with a stunning amount of firepower, but the Sounders are here for a reason.
Alyssa Naeher Announces International Retirement
Alyssa Naeher announced on Monday that she will be retiring from international play following the United States Women’s National Team’s upcoming matches. Naeher is one of the all-time great USWNT goalkeepers, and the only women’s soccer goalkeeper to ever keep a clean sheet in both an Olympic gold medal game and a World Cup final. She received her first national team cap almost 10 years ago on Dec. 18, 2014 and has gone on to make 113 appearances for the team. She’ll still play for the Chicago Red Stars during the 2025 season and possibly afterward, but her final game for the USWNT will come on Dec. 3 against the Netherlands in The Hague.
Vanni Sartini Out in Vancouver
After spending five years with the Vancouver Whitecaps in various roles, including a little over three as head coach, Vanni Sartini has left that position by mutual agreement with the club. The Italian led the Whitecaps to an improbable playoff berth in 2021 after taking over as head coach, and the team also qualified for the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, notching a 3-0 upset of top seed LAFC in Game 2 of the first round of the playoffs this year. Despite that, Sporting Director and Chief Executive Officer Axel Schuster felt that the team needed someone different in charge, and the team has begun the search for its next head coach.
Free Kicks
- The Pride’s title win has put a much needed spotlight on Black coaches thanks to Seb Hines.
- Take in some of the scenes from the final whistle of Orlando City’s playoff win against Atlanta United.
- Former Lion and U.S. Open Cup shootout hero Adam Grinwis has announced his retirement.
- Darlington Nagbe has received the 2024 Impact Award for his work in the community across the greater Columbus area.
- Former Houston Dynamo player Hector Herrera has said he is sorry for spitting at the referee during his final match with the club.
That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City’s Playoff Offense Needs to Match Its Prolific Defense
2024 Orlando Pride Season in Review: Amanda Allen
Lion Links: 11/28/24
Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Final Score 1-0 as Lions Advance to Eastern Conference Final
Orlando Pride vs. Washington Spirit, NWSL Championship: Final Score 1-0 as Pride Win Club’s First League Title
-
Orlando City4 days agoOrlando City vs. Atlanta United: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Orlando City1 week agoOrlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory
-
Orlando Pride2 weeks agoOrlando Pride vs. Kansas City Current: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Orlando City1 week agoHow Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
-
Orlando City4 days agoOrlando City vs. Atlanta United: Final Score 1-0 as Lions Advance to Eastern Conference Final
-
Orlando Pride2 weeks agoOrlando Pride vs. Kansas City Current: Final Score 3-2 as Pride Advance to NWSL Championship
-
Orlando Pride5 days agoOrlando Pride vs. Washington Spirit, NWSL Championship: Final Score 1-0 as Pride Win Club’s First League Title
-
Lion Links1 week agoLion Links: 11/20/24
Joe Parra
November 28, 2024 at 5:46 pm
The team has not “slipped” on offense a lot. The team played Charlotte 3 of the 4 playoff games. Everyone will score less against Charlotte then against Miami. Charlotte parks the bus as a regular tactic.