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Orlando City’s Playoff Offense Needs to Match Its Prolific Defense

A comparison of Orlando City’s offensive and defensive performances in the regular season and playoffs, and a conference final prediction.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City / Jeremy Reper

A few weeks ago I wrote about the final four NWSL teams and what the Pride would need to do to be the last team standing, and two weeks later the Pride won the NWSL Championship. I am not saying that there is a direct explicit cause-and-effect connection between the two, and that the sole reason the Pride won was because of me and what I wrote, but I am not not saying it either.

I am absolutely not saying that. Out loud.

Seriously though, congratulations to the Pride. What an amazing season they had and they thoroughly deserve to call themselves champions. As my colleague Sam Denker wrote, they have built something special and sustainable.

Staying in the same stadium and color, but moving to MLS, Orlando City has reached the same place the Pride were two weekends ago — the final four of its league playoffs. In contrast to the NWSL, where the top four teams during the regular season made the final four, on the MLS side, it is the teams ranked fourth (LA Galaxy), seventh (Seattle), ninth (Orlando City) and 14th (the New York Red Bulls). There is a Wicked joke in here somewhere about Inter Miami getting splashed with cold water in the first round of the playoffs and melting away, but I will leave it at that and move on to focusing on the best MLS team in Florida, a team that actually advanced not once, but twice in the playoffs.

Orlando City has technically won three of its four games in these playoffs, as MLS counts penalty kick shootout wins as full game wins in the best-of-three, first-round matchups, but it has not been pretty. The offense that was averaging nearly 2.5 goals scored per game from July through the end of the regular season is averaging a paltry 1.0 goals per game in the playoffs, and while that has been enough for the Lions to squeeze through and advance to the conference finals, it would be a whole lot nicer if Orlando City’s offense was performing more like, say, the LA Galaxy, who are averaging a cool 5.0 goals per game in the playoffs (yes, you read that correctly).

Perhaps the Lions will score the required 21 goals against the Red Bulls to lift their playoff average from 1.0 to 5.0, but probably not, and at this point I would be happy with a two-goal game and would be extremely thankful (timely reference alert) for a three-goal game, especially considering how well the defense has been playing.

We will get to the defense, a positive story, in a moment, but before that I want to show a comparison between Orlando City’s performance during the full regular season, the regular season games from July on, and the four playoff games (own goals are excluded from these stats; all data is from fbref.com):

GamesGoals/GameShots/GameSoT%Goal Conversion (Shots)Goal Conversion (SoT)npxG/Shot
All Regular Season1.6513.1534%12.5%37.1%.10
July and After2.2913.9237%16.5%44.0%.11
Playoffs1.0013.2530%7.5%25.0%.09
SoT = Shots on Target and npxG = non-penalty expected goals

The Lions came into the playoffs extremely hot, but in their four playoff games they have looked like the Orlando City of the early season, which struggled to find the net with consistency. It is a small sample, and the competition is fiercer in the playoffs than the regular season, but what stands out to me is that the quality of the shot locations has decreased by nearly 20% (look at the decrease in npxG/Shot in the playoffs as compared to the games from July onward) and, probably unsurprisingly, the conversion rates have decreased as well. However, the Lions are not the only team experiencing a postseason decline, as evidenced by the chart showing the change in each statistic from the regular season to the playoffs:

GamesGoals/GameShots/GameSoT%Goal Conversion (Shots)Goal Conversion (SoT)npxG/Shot
Last Four Teams+0.34-0.15-0.3%+2.6%+7.7%Same
LA Galaxy+3.00+1.29+17.5%+18.0%+20.7%+.04
Other Three-0.45-0.56-6.7%-2.9%-2.6%-.02
SoT = Shots on Target and npxG = non-penalty expected goals

If you look broadly at the last four teams, there is more green than red (first row), but as you can see from the subsequent two rows, it is really that the Galaxy have been full of shooting stars (see what I did there?) and the other three teams have performed worse in the playoffs than in the regular season. The good news is that Orlando City is not alone in having playoff struggles. The bad news is that every game in the playoffs is a must-win game, so the Lions need to figure this out right now.

Or do they?

Soccer is the rare game where a team can hold its opponent scoreless and still get knocked out of the playoffs, but giving up zero goals guarantees at least a chance in a shootout, and when you have Pedro Gallese and Rodrigo Schlegel, your chances are good that you can win that shootout. Orlando City has posted shutouts in three of the four playoff games, and while the team’s offense has slipped in productivity, the defense has made up for it by giving up just one goal in 360 minutes of playoff action (plus stoppage time). If we look at the same type of stats for Orlando City’s opponents that we did for the Lions’ own attackers, we can see that while the offense slipped from scoring 1.65 goals per game during the regular season to a flat 1.00, a 39% decline, the defense has more than made up for it:

GamesGoals/GameShots/GameSoT%Goal Conversion (Shots)Goal Conversion (SoT)npxG/Shot
All Regular Season1.4711.2134%13.1%39.1%.11
Playoffs0.259.0025%2.8%11.1%.08
SoT = Shots on Target and npxG = non-penalty expected goals

The comparative for Orlando City’s opponents is an 83% decrease in goals scored per game, an astounding decline and one that is a testament to the the whole team on how the Lions are limiting the opposing offenses. Atlanta United did not even get one shot on target all game, and while Charlotte did actually put the ball in the net, it only did so once in 270 minutes. Orlando City is limiting opponents to fewer shots per game, and the shots allowed are from locations that have historically produced fewer goals — an excellent combination.

As the Lions enter their first-ever MLS Eastern Conference final, the offense is chugging along while the defense is going full throttle, but I think a breakout is coming for the offense. This group has started nearly every game together for months, and I think the players will use their familiarity to break out of their mini slump and return to their high flying ways in the most important MLS game in the club’s history. Thus far this season, Orlando City has lost and drawn its two games with the Red Bulls, with both of those matches coming before the July turnaround, and I believe the Lions will complete the full results set and win the third one at Inter&Co Stadium this weekend.

My daughter is 3-0-0 in the three games she has ever attended , and she will be there in the stands, cheering on the Lions Saturday night. I am not saying that her attendance is the only reason that Orlando City will win, but I am not not saying it either.

Vamos Orlando!

Orlando City

Flashback Friday: June 18, 2022 vs. Houston Dynamo

Let’s relive a yellow-card filled match with the Dynamo that took place just over four years ago.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The main event for today is, of course, the United States Men’s National Team’s second game of group play against Australia this afternoon. I’ll be fortunate enough to take that game in live, and I’ll probably report back on it during Monday’s subscriber newsletter, so keep an eye out for that if you’re signed up! If you’re not, you can do that here (the newsletter is a TAM or DP level perk).

In the meantime though, let’s continue our reminiscence on some memorable Orlando City games from years gone by. Last week we relived a shutout win over the Colorado Rapids that took place a little over two years ago, and today we’ll be going a little farther into the archives to June 18, 2022 and a home match against the Houston Dynamo.

The Lions were in slightly uneven form going into the match. They were on a three-game winless run (0-1-2) in league play, a four-game winless run in all competitions (0-1-3 with a shootout win after a U.S. Open Cup draw against Inter Miami), and hadn’t picked up three points in just over a month. Changing that wasn’t going to be the easiest task due to Rodrigo Schlegel being unavailable for selection due to a suspension for yellow card accumulation.

That meant that Oscar Pareja’s team consisted of Pedro Gallese in goal; Joao Moutinho, Robin Jansson, Kyle Smith, and Ruan in defense; Cesar Araujo and Junior Urso in the double pivot; Jake Mulraney, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres in attacking midfield; and Ercan Kara leading the line.

OCSC got off to a lively start and created its first chance after just two minutes, when Moutinho sent in a cross for Mulraney, whose effort was blocked. Kara sent a header straight at Houston goalkeeper Steve Clark shortly afterward, before Corey Baird sent a shot of his own into Gallese’s chest four minutes later.

Jansson then picked up a yellow for dissent in the 14th minute, which meant he’d miss the next game due to yellow card accumulation. The Dynamo seemingly took inspiration from his booking, as Robert Avila, Adam Lundqvist, and Matias Vera all picked up yellows of their own in the space of the next seven minutes.

Orlando finally provided a non-discipline-related event in the 25th minute, when it broke the deadlock. Pereyra played a delightful stabbed ball over the top of the defense with his first touch, which fell perfectly into the path of an onrushing Torres. He then used his own first touch to play the ball hard and low across the top of the six-yard box, where Kara was on hand to put it home from close range.

The next notable moment came in the form of — you guessed it — another yellow card, as Zeca picked up Houston’s fourth of the game in just the 32nd minute. Orlando responded by Mulraney carving out a good chance for Torres four minutes later, but his effort was blocked by defender Tim Parker. Pereyra then cut Orlando’s yellow card deficit in half in the 39th minute, as he fouled Baird and paid the price.

The closing moments of the half saw a flurry of activity. Pereyra got behind the defense in the 44th minute but could only send his shot directly at Clark. Just as the clock struck 45 minutes, the Lions thought they had a penalty after the ball hit Avila on the arm, but video review rightfully changed the call to a free kick on the edge of the box. Kara nearly scored as he was somewhat surprisingly the man to take the ensuing set piece, but Clark once again made a save to keep his team in the game.

Oh, and Teenage Hadebe picked up a yellow card in the 45th minute.

At halftime, the Lions boasted more possession (52.9%-47.1%), shots (9-3), and shots on goal (4-1), but just had the 1-0 lead to show for it. The Dynamo had a vastly superior lead in yellow cards (5-2).

Houston made a couple of changes at halftime, with Darwin Quintero coming on for Avila, and Daniel Steres coming on for Parker, but Orlando started the second half as hot as it had finished the first.

Clark saved from Urso in the 48th minute after the midfielder was set up well by Torres, but the game then entered a bit of a lull as both teams tried to adjust to the Dynamo substitutions. Fortunately for Orlando, things sprang back into life in the 57th minute. Moutinho put a ball into the box that Mulraney flicked on, and while Hadebe tried to clear it, he could only get it as far as Pereyra. The captain lashed the ball on the half-volley with his left foot, and it took the slightest of deflections off Kara and ended up in the net for the Austrian’s second of the night.

It took Houston less than a minute to cut Orlando’s 2-0 lead in half, though. Zeca sent a dangerous ball into the box from the right wing, and Carlos Ferreira was able to beat Smith to it. He stuck a great header into the far corner beyond a fully stretched Gallese, and the Dynamo had life at 2-1.

The Lions nearly got their own response just a minute after conceding, but Kara’s snapshot attempt at the top of the six-yard box flashed just wide, denying the big striker a hat trick.

The 64th minute saw Gallese come off his line to try to clear the danger during a Dynamo break, but he got none of the ball and all of Ferreira. Fortunately, referee Rosendo Mendoza was content to give El Pulpo a yellow card and the Lions managed to keep all 11 men on the field.

Pareja made a series of changes to try to keep Orlando fresh and in control, but Houston kept carving out good chances. The Dynamo hit the post with the free kick that was awarded for Gallese’s foul, and substitute Tyler Pasher forced El Pulpo into saves in the 72nd and 76th minutes to preserve OCSC’s slim advantage.

The 87th minute had hearts in mouths for the Orlando City faithful, as Thorleifur Ulfarsson went down in the box under pressure from Smith, and there were immediately questions about a foul. The Accountant was proven innocent by the replays though, and when Mendoza went to his pocket it was to show Ulfarsson a yellow card for simulation.

Orlando had a chance to put the game to bed as the clock ticked into the 90th minute, but Benji Michel put his shot over the bar from about seven yards away, and it looked to be a hugely consequential miss when Quintero put the ball into the net for Houston in the final minute of added time. The assistant referee rightfully pulled the play back for offside though, and the Lions managed to escape with a welcome three points.

The final stats saw Houston with the edge in possession (53.8%-46.2%) but the Lions with an edge in shots (18-13), shots on target (6-5), and duels won (52-45). Perhaps most crucially, the Dynamo finished with a whopping six yellow cards to Orlando’s pitiful (by comparison) three.

Ryan Smith handled our Player Grades for this one, and he gave Pereyra the Man of the Match nod with a grade of 8 out of 10. Other high earners were Kara with a 7.5, and Gallese and Torres, who each received a 7.


That’ll do it for today’s glimpse into the past. I’ll see you right back here next Friday for another trip down memory lane. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 6/19/26

USMNT takes on Australia today, Christian Pulisic’s availability still in question, Canada wins big, and more.

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Image of Maxime Crepeau taking a goal kick against Atlanta.
Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Happy Friday! Last Friday, we all got to enjoy the U.S. kicking off its World Cup campaign with an emphatic win. Hopefully, the Yanks can replicate that performance in today’s game. It should be a fun start to a weekend filled with soccer, including an Orlando City B home game on Sunday. If the soccer bug has bitten you this month, make sure to go out and support the Young Lions!

USMNT Hosts Australia Today in World Cup

The United States Men’s National Team returns to action this afternoon with a match against Australia in Seattle — the team’s second game of this year’s World Cup. Both teams won their first games of the tournament, with the U.S. dominating Paraguay 4-1 and Australia beating Turkiye 2-0. American forward Folarin Balogun scored a brace in that win and the U.S. will look to keep the attacking momentum flowing against a formidable Australian defense. A win tonight by either side would go a long way towards winning Group D, which would notably face one of the third-place teams to start the knockout stage.

Christian Pulisic’s Availability Up in the Air

It’s still unclear if American star Christian Pulisic will play for the USMNT today as he works his way back from injury. The 27-year-old notched an assist in the win against Paraguay but had to exit at halftime after aggravating a calf injury picked up in training. Sebastian Berhalter came on for him in that match, but it will be interesting to see if USMNT Head Coach Mauricio Pochettino opts for Giovanni Reyna or Tim Weah instead. Pochettino did state that he’ll be available for the game against Turkiye if he doesn’t play today, so that’s good at least.

Canada Cruises to Big Win Over Qatar

Orlando City goalkeeper Maxine Crepeau started in goal but had little to do in Canada’s 6-0 win over Qatar, which was its first-ever win at a World Cup. Former Lion Cyle Larin got the scoring started for Canada in the 16th minute with his second goal of the tournament and Jonathan David scored a hat trick. Qatar was reduced to 10 men when Homam Al-Amin was shown a straight red in the 32nd minute, and then Assim Madibo was sent off early in the second half for a tackle that resulted in a gruesome leg injury to Ismael Kone. The Canadian midfielder was stretchered off, and his replacement, Nathan Saliba, scored from a free kick and raised Kone’s shirt in celebration. Canada now sits atop Group B with a better goal differential than Switzerland, meaning it will win the group with a win or draw against the Swiss on Wednesday.

Keeping Up With the World Cup

As for the other Group B game, Switzerland beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-1 by scoring four times in the second half after the hydration break. Substitute Johan Manzambi scored twice, but Bosnia’s consolation goal from Ermin Mahmic could play a role in goal-differential tiebreakers. In Group A, South Africa kept its hopes alive thanks to a late penalty that Teboho Mokoena converted in a 1-1 draw against Czechia.

Along with the U.S. game, today’s action includes Morocco taking on Scotland and Brazil playing against Haiti in Group C. We’ll also get to see if Orlando City midfielder Braian Ojeda takes the field when Paraguay faces Turkiye late tonight.

Free Kicks


That’s all I have for you all this time around. I hope you all have a fantastical Friday and rest of your weekend

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Players Fared In Transfermarkt’s Latest Market Valuations

A look at Transfermarkt’s latest player valuations for Orlando City and where those players rank across all of MLS.

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Image of Inter&Co Stadium at night.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

The World Cup is finally here and in full swing, and the soccer on the field has been thoroughly enjoyable through its first week. The “home” North American teams are off to a good start, with dominating wins by Mexico and the United States, a draw from Canada, and good showings from Haiti and Curaçao, even though both teams lost (Panama had not played as of this article’s completion). Curaçao’s goal against Germany was one of the moments of the tournament so far, even in what turned out to be a thumping defeat, and if the next few weeks can match the first week, we are in for a great tournament.

And thank goodness for that, because Orlando City and the Orlando Pride are still on hiatus, leaving only Orlando City B in action locally, as MLS NEXT Pro continues to channel its inner Mcfadden & Whitehead, reminding everyone that “ain’t no stoppin’ us now.”

And speaking of on the move, several Lions who moved on from Orlando contributed majorly to their nation’s opening games, with Alex Freeman (U.S.) and Richie Laryea (Canada) earning starts and Cyle Larin (Canada) coming off the bench. All three were excellent during their time on the field, and Larin and Freeman each recorded a World Cup goal contribution (goal for Larin and assist for Freeman) on the same day. Laryea really broke out after leaving Orlando City (much like another L-named former Lion on a World Cup roster, Brazil’s Léo Pereira), but Larin and Freeman were excellent in Orlando before transferring elsewhere, which leads me to Transfermarkt, the go-to website for player valuations.

The analysts at Transfermarkt generally update their player valuations twice per year, with occasional additional valuations upon player transfers. Fortunately for us during this dearth of Orlando City soccer, those updates happen in June and December, so there are brand new valuations for the Lions (and most of the players in MLS) as of the last few weeks.

Keep in mind these are estimated player valuations if another team would try to buy that player, and not salaries or estimates of worth as it relates to Orlando City’s 2026 team. Robin Jansson, for example, is valued at a lower amount than Iago and considerably lower than David Brekalo, even though the Orlando City coaching staff likely rates him as their top center back on this year’s team. Jansson is nearing retirement age, while Iago and Brekalo both have many years left in their careers, hence their larger value than Jansson.

The calculations behind Transfermarkt‘s estimated valuations are proprietary and are not shared on the site, but here is the list of Orlando City’s top players by position, and their corresponding rank among all MLS players at that position:

PlayerPosition*Valuation (in $ millions)MLS Rank at Position
Maxime CrépeauGK$2.09T-8
Adrián MarínLB$1.74T-20
David BrekaloCB$4.06T-5
Griffin DorseyRB$1.74T-14
Braian OjedaDM$4.06T-3
Eduard AtuestaCM$4.06T-15
TiagoLW$4.06T-13
Marco PašalićRW$7.536
Martín OjedaAM$10.432
Duncan McGuireCF$2.32T-35

*GK=goalkeeper, LB = left back, CB = center back, RB = right back, DM = defensive midfielder, CM = central midfielder, LW = left wing, RW = right wing, AM = attacking midfielder, and CF = center forward. Those positions were assigned by Transfermarkt. I cannot tell you why Braian Ojeda is a defensive midfielder and Atuesta is a central midfielder. Also, in a somewhat surprising categorization, attacking midfielders are classified as midfielders and not attackers, which will become relevant below.

For those who are interested, the full list of Orlando City valuations can be found here; just know that the numbers will look different because the site tracks valuations in Euros and I did the conversion to dollars for the table above. Putting that mathematics degree to good use!

On the whole, Transfermarkt values Orlando City’s roster at $56.6 million, with goalkeepers at $2.3 million, defenders at $11 million, midfielders at $24.1 million, and attackers at $19.3 million, respectively (there is some rounding in there, which is why when you did the math in your head, and I know you did, you summed those values to $56.7 million instead of $56.6 million). Among all MLS teams, those positional sums rank 11th, 19th, fourth, and 20th, in the same positional order. Orlando City is not the only team that is about to add a new signing once the secondary transfer window opens up, but Antoine Griezmann is currently valued at $9.27 million and adding that to the existing $19.3 million of Orlando City’s attacking group would vault them from 20th to sixth in attack and into fifth overall across all rosters.

Griezmann is not yet on the roster, however, so he is not included in the chart below, which displays the MLS rankings based on Transfermarkt‘s valuations. Orlando City ranks 26th in the league in points earned per game, but the Lions are doing it with a roster that is estimated as having the 12th-most value, and it would be a lot nicer if those two were flipped, or if the Lions could just play better and pick up more points. It is the hope that kills you keeps you going.

Here is the current state of Transfermarkt‘s valuations (I combined goalkeepers and defenders into one grouping):

Graph showing estimated valuations by position group for MLS teams.

Miami dominates this list, as its roster contains three of the league’s seven highest-valued players, a group of three that by themselves are more valuable than the bottom eight teams in MLS. The less said about them the better, so that is enough on the Herons.

As previously mentioned, Orlando City’s midfield, featuring the league’s 14th-highest valued player Martín Ojeda, is where most of the team’s value is. Pašalić leads the attacking group at $7.53 million (26th overall in MLS), nearly double the estimated value of the next highest attacker Tiago, and Brekalo is in a similar boat as the defender with the most value ($4.06 million), nearly twice that of Crépeau ($2.09 million) and more than double any other back line player. Adding Griezmann will give the Lions some bite on the field and also in these rankings, as McGuire has the most value on the club but ranks only 35th among forwards, and his value has fallen 60% from where it was in June of 2024 ($5 million).

Among the 26 players that Transfermarkt valued for Orlando City, 16 of them had valuations two seasons ago as well. Eight players have increased in value from 2024, three are at the same valuation, and five have decreased. As much as I would like to put stock into these valuations, as Transfermarkt is one of the most trusted sites in the business, a certain former Lion named Freeman is on a rocket ship trajectory in his career and yet is currently only valued at the same dollar amount as Atuesta, Brekalo, Braian Ojeda, and Tiago. Positional differences account for some part of it, but I think few teams in the world would actually value all of those players the same, with Freeman commanding far more than any of those other four players.

In the end, a player’s value is determined not by a website but by what one team is willing to pay for them, and with the MLS secondary transfer window set to open in a little less than a month on July 13, we will soon see if any current Lions are transferred out, and at what price, and if there will be any new Lions joining the team aside from Griezmann.

Orlando City got younger and, according to Transfermarkt, more valuable from 2025 to 2026, but while we as fans enjoy the discourse and rumors about buying and selling players, what we really want are wins and banners. I do not think San Jose’s fans care one bit that their team is rated as having the third-least value in MLS, the Earthquakes are averaging earning the third-most points per match, picking up three points in most of their games.

The Lions still have 19 regular-season games remaining, and it would be great if by the next update from Transfermarkt in December the roster will be full of players who increased their valuations after a scorching run to close out the season. Once again, it is the hope that kills you keeps you going.

Vamos Orlando!

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