Orlando City
Ranking the Best Attacking Seasons by Orlando City Players
Which offensive player had the best attacking season for Orlando City in recent years?
I spend a lot of time thinking about ways to quantify soccer players and soccer teams, because even though I love soccer purely as a game, I am always thinking about how to measure what I see as well. There is a scene in the movie Moneyball in which Brad Pitt, acting in the role of Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane, says that he does not even watch the games. In his eyes, he has done all the analyzing and put the team in the best situation in which to succeed, but the games are random, so he does not even watch.
I will never reach the point where I would rather just look at the statistics to see what happened as opposed to watching the games, but I will also never stop trying to figure out ways to channel Tina Turner and figure out who is simply the best. And so, while we are still in off-season mode and do not have any new games to look at, I thought I would look at something that is always enjoyable: offensive attacking players.
ESPN soccer writer Ryan O’Hanlon, a favorite of mine, recently wrote an article ranking the top 100 men’s attacking players in Europe based on data. In that article, he created a formula for how he ranked the players, and I took that formula and applied it to MLS. His formula is pretty simple, as it has four inputs:
- Goals
- Expected Assists
- Progressive Carries
- Progressive Passes
The idea is to find the players who put the most pressure on a defense, and who puts more pressure on a defense than a player who scores goals, completes passes to teammates in scoring positions (regardless of whether they actually score or not), carries (dribbles) the ball at least 10 yards towards the goal in the attacking half of the field, or completes passes of 10 yards or more towards the goal in the attacking half of the field?
Basketball coaches always talk about being in “triple threat” position when you receive the ball, as you want to be able to dribble, pass, or shoot, and while scoring in soccer is slightly different than basketball, the idea is still the same — goals are created by players dribbling, passing, or shooting.
O’Hanlon’s formula is the following: Goals Scored + Expected Assists + 0.0113 (Progressive Carries + Progressive Passes)
I know there is an obvious question when you see this formula, and that is about how did he arrive at the 0.0113 value. Looking at the 2022 and 2023 seasons in Europe’s top leagues, he determined that a goal was scored per every 88.44 progressive actions, and so, as I know all of you just did in your head, one goal per 88.44 progressive actions = 1 divided by 88.44 = 0.0113. Actual goals scored and passes completed to teammates in shooting positions are valued much more highly than just attacking dribbles and forward moving passes, but if we are looking to find out who is attacking during each game I liked how he laid out his reasoning for what he called his version of a soccer “game score,” modeled after a concept created by the father of sports analytics, Bill James, for starting pitchers in baseball.
For those of you still awake, it is now about to pay off, because now we will look at Orlando City’s players going back to 2018, the first year Opta started tracking expected assists and progressive carries and passes for MLS. We will look at this statistic in two different ways: once as an overall score, which favors the players who played in more games and therefore contributed more attacking plays, and then we will normalize all the data on a per-90-minute calculation, to see who made the most of their minutes on the field.
Without any further ado, and without any Freddy Adu, your top 10 Orlando City attacking players since 2018 by their aggregated full season game scores (reminder that the 2020 MLS season was 23 games instead of 34; all data from fbref.com):
| Player | Season | Season Game Score | Rank in MLS | MLS Best that Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nani | 2019 | 22.0 | 8 | 50.7 |
| Facundo Torres | 2023 | 20.9 | 10 | 31.1 |
| Facundo Torres | 2024 | 20.0 | 21 | 32.6 |
| Facundo Torres | 2022 | 17.4 | 25 | 33.7 |
| Duncan McGuire | 2023 | 16.3 | 26 | 31.1 |
| Nani | 2021 | 16.2 | 26 | 26.6 |
| Sacha Kljestan | 2018 | 15.6 | 46 | 38.0 |
| Chris Mueller | 2020 | 14.8 | 11 | 21.8 |
| Yoshimar Yotún | 2018 | 14.7 | 53 | 38.0 |
| Dom Dwyer | 2018 | 14.3 | 58 | 38.0 |
I cannot say that I am surprised that Nani and Facundo Torres lead the way for Orlando City attacking players. They both played a lot of minutes and had a lot of the ball during their time in purple, and they are two of the best offensive players to ever play for the Lions. Data for expected assists and progressive actions was not available in Kaká’s era, but had it been, I am sure he would have made this list as well. The player who likely would have benefitted the most, however, is Cyle Larin, as even with no available data for expected assists or progressive actions, he would have ranked fifth with just his 2015 season tally of 17 goals.
Any metric that heavily weights goals favors forwards, as they usually score the most goals, as evidenced by the fact that Harry Kane led all of the major European leagues (England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) in 2024 with a score of 44.0, and Denis Bouanga led MLS at 32.6. Looking at Orlando City though, it is quickly evident that the team has primarily been led by attacking midfielders as opposed to forwards when it comes to the attack. Larin might have passed Nani for the single-season lead had there been other data for him, but perhaps not, as he was a finisher and not someone who was involved as much in the buildup.
The last item around the aggregated season-long totals is to look at how far away Orlando City’s leading players always were as compared to the MLS leader. The Lions have only averaged 1.5 goals/game or more (in MLS regular season play) during five of their 10 seasons, and only at least 1.7 twice. Larin remains the only player to score more than 14 goals in a regular season, and so for any metric where goals are heavily weighted, like this one, which is attempting to evaluate attacking production, Orlando City’s individual players will often lag far behind those from other teams, even though the full team has been successful in recent years.
We could also look at this data in a different way, and instead of looking at the aggregated scores for the season, which benefits those who play the most minutes, look at per-90-minute game scores instead. In many cases I prefer to normalize the data and evaluate everyone not on totals but by looking at per-90 statistics, but in this case I will present the per-90 data, but I think the raw data matters more, because I wanted to see who had the best overall attacking season, and overall production matters more than per-minute production in this case. If you disagree, I will happily entertain your reasoning in the comments.
Looking at game scores normalized per 90 minutes, Orlando City’s top 10 since 2018 looks as follows (among players who played at least 500 minutes in a season):
| Player | Season | Game Score/90 | Rank in MLS | MLS Best that Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan McGuire | 2023 | 1.06 | 5 | 1.11 |
| Chris Mueller | 2020 | 0.91 | 9 | 1.15 |
| Nani | 2019 | 0.87 | 13 | 1.67 |
| Nani | 2021 | 0.80 | 21 | 1.24 |
| Benji Michel | 2020 | 0.80 | 21 | 1.15 |
| Facundo Torres | 2023 | 0.79 | 24 | 1.11 |
| Nani | 2020 | 0.79 | 23 | 1.15 |
| Ramiro Enrique | 2024 | 0.78 | 30 | 1.62 |
| Daryl Dike | 2021 | 0.76 | 27 | 1.24 |
| Chris Mueller | 2019 | 0.76 | 34 | 1.67 |
Some of the same full-season leaders are on this list as well, but we also see the entrance of several players who rarely had the burden of being expected to play a full game. McGuire, Benji Michel, and Ramiro Enrique were more supersub or rabbit-type players who started with the expectation of going around 60 minutes or came off the bench for the final third of the game. While they had to be productive to make the top 10 ranking, their smaller sample size of minutes helps them on a per-90-minute calculation.
The Money Badger, Chris Mueller, makes this list twice, and while his post-Orlando City career has likely not been what he hoped, I wonder whether I did not appreciate how well he performed while a Lion. Torres played a lot of minutes during all three of his seasons with the club, and so while he racked up counting numbers (which it is important to note are what matters when trying to win games), his per-minute performance knocks two of his three seasons out of the top 10 (2024 was 16th and 2022 was 24th). Nani remains elite, whether by totals or per-minute calculations, and McGuire’s 2023 season moves to the top for Orlando City. That season ranked fifth in 2024 and 33rd overall among all MLS seasons since 2018, and makes it hurt all the more that he will be out for a few months to start the 2025 season.
It sure would be nice to have some more attacking options joining the team for 2025 with McGuire’s injury and Torres’ departure. I am just saying. Loudly.
This article is about Orlando City, but I wanted to briefly flip to the Pride to note that Barbra Banda’s 2024 full-season game score was 19.2 in a season that had eight fewer games than a standard MLS season. Banda ranked second in the league in overall game score and game score per 90 minutes, which for her was 1.04. That darned Temwa Chawinga (26.6 total, 1.12 per 90) of the Kansas City Current beat her out for both the total and per-90 lead.
As with any metric that tries to pull in different parts of a player’s performance, nothing is perfect, and any measurement formula could be tweaked until the lions sleep at night. In looking at how the results shook out across the major European leagues in O’Hanlon’s original article and in my own application to MLS, I found that the rankings seemed to work to push players who pass the eye test and the math test (my favorite test, to the surprise of no one) to the top of these charts.
I plan to continue to look at this metric, among others, throughout the 2025 season to see how Orlando City and the Orlando Pride’s players are performing. I hope to see players in purple at the top of the charts, though at this point I am more confident in those being Pride players than Lions. With every week that passes, we get closer to the 2025 season, and comparing predictions and hopes to actual results, and I am as excited as ever for the new seasons to start.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Orlando City’s Three Biggest Current Roster Questions
What are the three most concerning issues for Orlando City this preseason?
Orlando City has begun its preseason training as the 2026 MLS season nears. The last few weeks have seen signings and departures that have given fans a closer look at what the team will look like when the Lions take on the New York Red Bulls on Feb. 21.
In some cases, the team has made moves that will secure positions that were questionable during the off-season. The two most notable are the signing of Maxime Crepeau as the starting goalkeeper and Martin Ojeda signing a new deal through the 2028-2029 season.
But there are also some questions still to be answered. Let’s take a look at some of the most concerning issues with the current roster.
Who Will Start at Left Back?
Rafael Santos became Orlando City’s starting left back for the 2023 MLS season after the departure of Joao Moutinho. The Brazilian was a regular in the lineup until early last season when he was relegated to the bench in favor of David Brekalo. The club ended up trading Santos to the Colorado Rapids on Aug. 15, 2025.
Despite not being a natural left back, Brekalo started in the position for the majority of last season until the final three games, when Adrian Marin started in the role. Brekalo started two of the last three games at center back and was away on international duty for the other.
Marin was less than impressive in his first starts for the club. Even though he’s really a center back, Brekalo seemed better at the position than the newer arrival. However, that might not be an option this season and isn’t an ideal situation in any case.
Orlando City sold starting center back Rodrigo Schlegel to Atlas FC on Dec. 16. The decision seemingly forces Brekalo back into the center of the field, where he’ll start alongside club captain Robin Jansson. Even if the club complete the rumored acquisition of Brazilian defender Iago, the departures of both Schlegel and Thomas Williams mean Brekalo will likely need to play his natural position.
That leaves the question of what to do at left back. At this point, Marin starting makes the left back position the weakest of the four. The club doesn’t have any dependable options after Kyle Smith departed the club this off-season. Right now, it will be either Marin or Brekalo, which will cause concerns at the position or leave depth issues at center back. Regardless, it’s an issue that needs to be addressed as the season gets closer.
However, it bears mentioning that Marin had to adjust midseason to a new team on a new continent. It’ll be up to him to settle in during preseason camp and be ready when the season starts.
What Will Happen With Alex Freeman?
The left fullback position isn’t the only potential problem on the back line. A Homegrown product that came through the Orlando City academy and Orlando City B, Freeman made himself a household name last year. The right back quickly took the starting role from Dagur Dan Thorhallsson and started at right back for the U.S. National Team over the summer.
However, his stellar play has also led to interest from clubs overseas. Freeman has publicly stated his desire to play in Europe and he’s currently on a club option year for 2026. If he refuses to re-sign with the club, Orlando City might look to sell him before the European transfer window closes in early February or this summer in the MLS secondary transfer window to avoid losing the 21-year-old for free.
That would leave the Lions with a very serious problem at right back. The Lions traded Thorhallsson to CF Montreal this off-season and, as previously stated, Smith is gone as well. At this point, the starter if Freeman departs would probably be Zakaria Taifi. While the 20-year-old has shown quality for OCB and the first team, he’s still raw with little MLS experience.
As of now, Freeman will be the starter when the season begins and could end up extending his contract with the club, especially since playing in MLS hasn’t hindered his ability to get into the senior national team. But if contract negotiations don’t look positive in the near future, the club will have to figure out what to do with the future of that position.
Will Duncan McGuire Solidify His Spot Up Top?
The defensive midfield and attacking midfield positions are pretty well set for the 2026 campaign. However, there are definitely some questions when it comes to who will play up top.
The position wasn’t exactly in a great state late in the 2025 season. The two top goal scorers on the team last year were midfielders in Ojeda and Marco Pasalic. Luis Muriel and Ramiro Enrique both scored in double digits in all competitions, but neither is with the club anymore.
The Lions sold Enrique to Saudi side Al-Kholood on Sept. 8, and sold Muriel to Colombia’s Atletico Junior on Jan. 15. That leaves McGuire as the club’s only striker with any considerable experience.
A first-round pick in the 2023 MLS SuperDraft, McGuire had a strong rookie campaign that saw him score 15 goals in 37 appearances in all competitions. He nearly left the club following the season — even traveling to England to finalize the deal — but a clerical error on Blackburn Rovers’ part saw the move fall through.
McGuire’s contributions dipped slightly in 2024 as he scored 11 goals in 37 appearances and it got worse when he suffered a shoulder injury in the first round of the playoffs that required surgery.
The 2025 season was McGuire’s worst since turning professional as he sustained an injury to his other shoulder and watched Muriel and Enrique carry the attacking position until Enrique’s departure. Even when Oscar Pareja put two players up top, he usually paired Ojeda with Muriel rather than McGuire. McGuire only appeared 23 times in 2025 with seven starts in all competitions, scoring just three goals. However, with Muriel’s departure this off-season, McGuire is the only experienced natural striker on the roster.
The main question for McGuire this season will be his health. The attacker has had trouble staying on the field with the back-to-back shoulder injuries. The recent departures and lack of additions into the squad mean he’ll likely be expected to start when the season begins. It could be a bounce back season if he can stay healthy.
However, that’s still a big question. In the meantime, the club still needs depth at that position, regardless of McGuire’s health. It’s something that must be addressed during the preseason. The club does, however, have an open Designated Player slot available.
This off-season has been somewhat troubling for Orlando City fans. The club saw some key departures and not enough additions to feel confident about the upcoming season, but there is still a month before opening day.
As the team goes through preseason training and the first regular-season game gets closer, there are still some issues that must be addressed if the team wants to improve on last year’s disappointing finish. These three questions are the most concerning.
Lion Links
Lion Links: 1/19/25
Lions signs Harvey Sarajian, Orlando City’s latest transfer rumor, Pride sign three players, and more.
Hello, Mane Landers! I hope you all had a good holiday weekend as we celebrate Martin Luther King Jr. Day. I’ve been staying busy at work and checked out the 2026 Chicago Cubs Convention over the weekend. Before we get started, let’s all wish OCB’s Titus Sandy Jr. a happy birthday. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.
Orlando City Signs First-Round Pick Harvey Sarajian
Orlando City announced Friday that the club has signed 2026 MLS SuperDraft first-round pick Harvey Sarajian to a first-team contract. The deal runs through the 2027-2028 MLS season, with three additional club option years that could keep him in Orlando through 2030-2031. The Naples native began his collegiate career at Georgia Southern before transferring to Wake Forest last year. He scored two goals and added two assists in 17 games last season for the Demon Deacons, but his side fell to SMU in the ACC Tournament and failed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Sarajian will likely be a reserve for MLS games this year and develop his game with Orlando City B in MLS NEXT Pro.
Lions Reportedly in Negotiations to Sign Brazilian Defender
According to Tom Bogert of The Athletic, Orlando City is reportedly in negotiations to sign 20-year-old center back Iago from Flamengo in Brazil’s Serie A.
Iago joined the club in 2024 and has played for the Flamengo U-20 squad, making 10 appearances and scoring six goals. He has also made five appearances for Flamengo’s first team, scoring one goal across all competitions. According to another report, the two sides have been in negotiations for the last 10 days, and the transfer fee is reportedly $3.5 million. Iago has exceeded the age limit for Flamengo’s U-20 side, and his contract expires at the end of the year as the club looks to sell the defender.
Orlando Pride Sign Three Players to One-Year Deals
The Orlando Pride announced Friday that the club has signed forward Seven Castain, goalkeeper Cara Martin, and defender Nicole Payne to one-year contracts for the 2026 NWSL season. Castain spent four seasons playing collegiate soccer at Texas Christian University. She earned 2025 United Soccer Coaches All-America first-team honors, was a MAC Hermann Trophy semifinalist, and tied the school’s single-season goals record with 17 in her senior season. Martin played college soccer at Georgetown University, where she was named Big East Goalkeeper of the Year, starting 23 games in her senior season, and recording eight shutouts and 59 saves. Payne was a free agent and had previously played for the Portland Thorns and Paris Saint-Germain.
MLS Transfer News Roundup
There is plenty of transfer moves from the past few days. Austin FC has reportedly submitted a transfer bid to acquire former Lion Facundo Torres from Palmeiras. A week ago, Torres was linked with a potential move to Benfica. Orlando City would receive a 15% sell-on percentage if the transfer move is finalized.
St. Louis City is reportedly finalizing a deal to sign Mamadou Mbacke Fall from Barcelona.
Toronto FC has signed goalkeeper William Yabrough to a contract through the 2026 season with an option through June 2027. Real Salt Lake has acquired Lukas Engel from EFL Championship side Middlesbrough. Engel is under contract through December 2028 with an option for 2028-2029. New York City FC announced the club has loaned defender Mitja Ilenic to Polish side Rakow Czestochowa through December 2026. Lastly, the San Jose Earthquakes announced that defender Nick Lima has retired from professional soccer after nine seasons in Major League Soccer.
Rose Lavelle, Lilly Earn U.S. Soccer Recognition
The U.S. Soccer Federation announced its 2025 U.S. Soccer Female Player of the Year and Young Female Player of the Year Award Friday. NJ/NY Gotham FC midfielder Rose Lavelle was voted 2025 U.S. Soccer Female Player of the Year. Lavelle scored the lone goal to help Gotham FC defeat the Washington Spirit to win the 2025 NWSL Championship, earning match MVP honors. She returned to the U.S. Women’s National Team last June and had six caps and one goal contribution in each of those matches. She beat out Sam Coffey and Catarina Macario for the award. Lavelle’s teammate, Lilly Reale, was voted the 2025 U.S. Soccer Young Female Player of the Year. The 22-year-old defender made 29 appearances last season in the NWSL, played 2,217 minutes, and was named the NWSL Rookie of the Year. Reale had five caps for the USWNT and recorded one assist in her debut against Ireland last summer. She won 48% of the total vote, beating out Jordyn Bugg and Micayla Johnson.
Senegal Wins 2025 Africa Cup of Nations
Senegal beat host Morocco 1-0 after extra time to win the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations title for the second time in five years. The match saw drama late in the second half when Morocco was awarded a controversial penalty kick in stoppage time. Senegal Men’s National Team manager Pape Thiaw instructed his team to leave the pitch. Players from both teams argued over the controversial VAR penalty call, and violent altercations ensued between Senegal supporters and Moroccan authorities. After a 15-minute delay, the Senegal players returned to the pitch, and Brahim Diaz saw his Panenka penalty attempt easily saved, keeping the match scoreless and sending it to extra time. Pape Gueye scored the winning goal for Senegal, while Morocco missed out on ending its 50-year wait for a continental title on home soil.
Free Kicks
- Our Lions have been busy at preseason training camp over the weekend, working on their conditioning.
- Orlando City gave new signings Braian Ojeda and Maxime Crepeau a warm welcome at Inter&Co Stadium.
- Norwich City forward Josh Sargent was reportedly sent to train with the club’s U-21 squad after he made himself unavailable for the third round FA Cup match against Walsall, despite being linked to a move to Toronto FC recently. Sargent did not play in Norwich City’s 2-1 win against Wrexham Saturday.
- Patrick Agyemang scored the lone goal to lift Derby County to a 1-0 win against Preston North End. Haji Wright came off the bench in the second half and scored a late winner as Coventry City edged Leicester City 2-1.
- The Illigs, owners of Sporting Kansas City, have reportedly reached an agreement to sell a majority stake to one of the club’s existing limited partners, Peter Mallouk, for an MLS-record sum of $700 million.
- Arsenal midfielder Katie McCabe is reportedly attracting interest from several NWSL clubs as her contract expires at the end of the season.
That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.
Orlando City
Orlando City Signs First-Round Pick Harvey Sarajian
The Lions have signed their first pick of the 2026 MLS SuperDraft to a first-team contract.
Orlando City announced today that the club has signed first-round selection Harvey Sarajian through the 2027-2028 MLS season, with three additional club option years that could keep him in purple through 2030-2031. The 20-year-old attacking midfielder, who will soon turn 21, officially joins the first team after multiple departures in the team’s attack.
“We’re really excited to bring Harvey into the fold,” Orlando City General Manager and Sporting Director Ricardo Moreira said in a club press release. “He’s a player we identified early in the draft process as someone who fits our style and developmental pathway. Adding young talent like Harvey is an important part of building depth and ensuring long-term success as we continue into the next iteration of our competitive cycle.”
The Lions selected Sarajian with the fifth overall pick in the 2026 MLS SuperDraft out of Wake Forest University. It was the first of four picks Orlando City made in the first round this year, and Sarajian is the first of the group to be signed.
The Naples, FL, native, who will wear No. 23 this season, began his collegiate career at Georgia Southern in 2024 before transferring to Wake Forest in 2025. He earned Sun Belt Freshman of the Year and All-Southeast Region second-team honors his first year before joining one the nation’s top programs.
The 6-foot-2 sophomore scored two goals and added two assists in 17 games last season while putting six of his 19 shots on frame (31.6%). It was a down year for the Demon Deacons, who lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament to SMU and didn’t qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
In his two years of collegiate action, Sarajian played 34 games (31 starts), recording 1,921 minutes. He scored six goals and had eight assists for the two schools.
What It Means for Orlando City
Sarajian’s signing is all about development as he likely won’t see much time for the first team in 2026. His primary position is in the number 10 role, a spot already occupied by Martin Ojeda. He can also play on either wing, potentially backing up Ivan Angulo and Marco Pasalic.
In all likelihood, Sarajian will be at most a reserve for MLS games and will see most of his time with Orlando City B in MLS NEXT Pro. His status on the club will probably be like that of former Lion draftee Shak Mohammed, a fellow former first-round draft pick that plays a similar style and left the club this off-season.
The attacker will only be 21 years old when the season begins, so he still has a lot of room to improve. He wasn’t a star at Wake Forest, so the Orlando City brass clearly sees this as a long-term project who will hopefully pay dividends down the road. If not, the club likely feels comfortable with the attacking options coming through the academy and OCB, like Justin Ellis and Justin Hylton.
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