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Orlando City’s Opener Marked by Negative Events Unlikely to Reoccur

An evaluation of four key unlikely events that contributed heavily to the 4-2 loss to the Philadelphia Union.

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1 year ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The first article I wrote for The Mane Land was in June of 2024, and by that time Orlando City had played 20 games and there was already a robust amount of data to look at and analyze, and trends were already visible. We are now at the beginning of the 2025 season, and while the one-game sample size makes it feel like the team is terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad, I want to urge everyone to heed the words from this week’s The Mane Land PawedCast and please do not panic.

Despite my love for hip hop music I will also urge you not to listen to French Montana’s “Don’t Panic,” as it is actually a terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad song, but I agree with Montana’s central theme of going ixnay on the anic-pay.

With their season-opening loss, Orlando City is no longer able to get to 100 points this year, but let’s be honest, nobody ever thought that was going to happen, even among the most optimistic of optimistic Lions fans. On the whole, I thought Orlando City actually played pretty well, the Lions just had one of those when-it-rains-it-pours games, and there was a confluence of negative events that happened during Saturday’s match that I think are unlikely to happen again this season, especially not all in the same match:

  • A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a back line that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time.
  • Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese.
  • Three shots that hit the woodwork.
  • Six “big chances” squandered.

Let’s take a look at each of these and evaluate the likelihood of them happening again this season. You may be surprised by just how rare the events that befell the Lions were.

A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a backline that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time

My guess is that during the preseason Orlando City had moments in practice when the back line consisted of (from left to right) Rafael Santos, Rodrigo Schlegel, David Brekalo and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, but that group had never played a minute together in a real match until the season opener. In addition, during the last week of practice in advance of the game, the team surely was focused on a game plan of a Santos-Jansson-Schlegel-Thórhallsson starting group, since that was the announced lineup one hour before kickoff. Losing Jansson was a double blow, as not only did the Lions have to alter their lineup, but he is also the captain and one of the best defenders in the league.

I believe that as the season progresses there will be more defensive lineups used that have never played together before, especially as matches get into the second half and the team makes substitutions, but the likelihood of a late scratch right before a game starts and the team being forced to go with a back line with zero minutes played together is low, especially now that the group that started against Philadelphia — and that same group, but with Alex Freeman instead of Thórhallsson — has logged minutes together.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 3%

Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese

I want to start by saying that to lay the blame on Gallese for the Union scoring four goals on their only four shots would be unfair, because three goals were scored at point-blank range and the fourth was shot into an open net that he had little chance to cover because of how that goal developed. That said, goalkeepers can and do make saves, even on shots from point-blank range, so Gallese could have possibly positioned himself differently or communicated more to the defense earlier to snuff out the attack. I do not think he bears all the blame, but he is not blameless either.

Looking at El Pulpo’s career, fbref.com shows Gallese having started 266 club matches as the goalkeeper, playing for clubs in Peru, Mexico, and in MLS with Orlando City. There were nine matches when he allowed at least four goals while making zero saves, which is 3.4% of his starts. With Orlando City specifically, he had four matches like this out of his 136 starts, which is 2.9%. In a 34-game regular season each game accounts for…would you look at that, 2.9% of the season, so I think the likelihood of another four-plus goals allowed and zero-save game is very low, especially for a goalkeeper of Gallese’s caliber.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 5%

Three shots that hit the woodwork

The Lions smashed three shots off the woodwork against Philadelphia — two off the crossbar (Freeman and Luis Muriel) and one off the post (Marco Pašalić). Muriel and Pašalić hit theirs within seconds of one another, right before Pašalić got the ball back yet again and finally deposited the shot into the net. Hitting the post feels better than missing the goal entirely and better than having a shot saved, but not that much better, since none of those scenarios result in a goal. It may feel a little better, since the shot was (literally) on frame and got by the goalkeeper, but it does not help on the scoreboard.

Going back to the beginning of 2023 Orlando City has played 77 MLS matches, including regular season and playoffs, and in only two of those matches did the Lions put more than two shots off the woodwork. That works out to 2.6%, or once per every 38.5 games, but I think the team’s offense is going to be more prolific this year in terms of shots taken per game, and with a good amount of attacking talent, I think the shots will be more likely to be on and around the goal, leading to a slightly increased possibility of another game of two or more shots off the woodwork.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 10%

Six “big chances” squandered

Fotmob takes everyone’s favorite metric of xG (expected goals) and calls any shot with an xG of 0.15 or greater as a “big chance.” That value is approximately a one-in-six chance of scoring, so we can quibble all day about whether that should be a big chance or not, but if we use that as a baseline, then there were six shots against Philadelphia that were big chances but were not capitalized on. All six of these happened in the second half and were the aforementioned three shots from close range that went off the woodwork by Freeman, Muriel and Pašalić, Pašalić’s close-range attempt that was blocked after Andre Blake fumbled a header from Schlegel, Muriel’s header that Blake saved at full stretch, and Iván Angulo’s shanked mis-hit shot off a great cross from Freeman.

Once again, going back to the beginning of 2023, the Lions have played 77 matches, and they only even created six or more big chances four times total, but twice in those four games they squandered at least six big chances. Two out of 77 is the same 2.6% as it was before, and using similar rationale, I also think that with a better offense will come more big chances, and unfortunately also the ability to miss out on scoring on big chances. Orlando City went one-for-seven in big chances against Philadelphia (Pašalić’s second goal was the one success), and once again I think there is a slight increase in probability for there to be another game when the Lions create six or more big chances but do not score on at least six of those chances.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 15%

If you listen to The Mane Land PawedCast, you likely know our hosts Michael and Dave will often say that they were told there would be no math when discussing various statistics, but they were never told that by me. In looking at the four events that happened in the opening game, I have assigned the reoccurrence likelihoods to be 3%, 5%, 10%, and 15%.

There is some level of interdependency between these events, so they are not truly independent, but let’s pretend that they are four unique independent events. In that case, to find the probability of a game like the season opener happening again you would do that like this:

Probability = .03 x .05 x .10 x .15

That probability is approximately one in 44,000, which can also be referred to more colloquially as really, really, really unlikely. As I mentioned, there are some dependencies. For example, hitting the woodwork and squandering big chances can be linked, but to have another game where all of these events happen is still unlikely, even if I was way off on my estimates for the reoccurrence likelihoods.

There are 33 regular-season games remaining to play, and even if all of these events do not happen in the same game, Orlando City still needs to try to avoid any of them happening, because as individual events they were not great, and collectively they were a disaster. Couple that with what was likely one of the worst touches of Schlegel’s career at the exact wrong time and it all led to a loss against a team that was eminently beatable.

I view this is as a silver lining, and if you are interested in other silver linings, I wrote several of those in our weekly private newsletter, available only to those who subscribe to our Buy Me a Coffee membership at the TAM Player level or above, which you can do by clicking on this hyperlink. We would love to share even more content with you.

Orlando City has a great opportunity in its next game to show that the season opener was an aberration, full of bad luck and once-in-a-season-type negative events, and the Lions can make us forget all of that by getting a first win under their belt by defeating Toronto FC in the season’s second game. I believe that they will do so, and I am looking forward to watching it happen with my own eyes in Inter&Co Stadium on March 1.

Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/12/26

Barbra Banda up for weekly honors, Johnny Cardoso to have surgery, Americans in midweek action, and more.

Published

15 hours ago

on

May 12, 2026

By

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Good morning, everyone. It was a mixed bag for Orlando’s soccer teams over the weekend, as the Orlando Pride and Orlando City B both picked up victories, while Orlando City lost. There’s no rest for the wicked though, because the Pride take on Boston Legacy on the road tonight, while the Lions will host the Philadelphia Union on Wednesday. We’ve got a lot to talk about this morning, so let’s get into the links.

Barbra Banda up for Weekly Honors

Barbra Banda’s game-winning strike over the North Carolina Courage has been nominated for the NWSL Goal of the Week. Banda cut across her marker in the 87th minute with the match tied 0-0 and curled a great strike inside the far post to give the Pride a lead that wouldn’t be relinquished. The victory got Orlando back on track after dropping two games in a row, and the goal was Banda’s league-leading eighth strike of the year. Make sure you go vote for her to win!

Surgery for Johnny Cardoso

Atletico Madrid announced on Monday that midfielder Johnny Cardoso will have surgery to repair an injury to his right ankle. Cardoso was hurt during a training session, with Atletico classifying the injury as a “high-grade sprain involving joint damage.” The club’s statement did not specify a timeline for his return to the field and U.S. Soccer has not made any statement besides wishing Cardoso a speedy recovery. That said, with this summer’s World Cup less than a month away, its tough to imagine that he’ll be healed up and ready to be part of the United States Men’s National Team roster. If that’s the case, it’ll be a bitter blow for both the USMNT and a midfielder that looked like a sure bet to be on the squad.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans who will be taking part in games during the working week, so let’s make sure we’ve got everything on the schedule. Things got started on Monday when Brenden Aaronson played 63 minutes in Leeds United’s 1-1 draw with Tottenham. Action continues today when Aidan Morris and Middlesborough face Southampton in the second leg of an EFL Championship playoff promotion semifinal. Wednesday sees Auston Trusty and Celtic take on Motherwell in a game with massive ramifications on the title race in the Scottish Premier League. Wednesday also has Alex Freeman and Villarreal hosting Sevilla in La Liga play, while Chris Richards and Crystal Palace will try to play spoiler against Manchester City.

MLS Matchday 12 Lessons

Matchday 12 is officially in the books for Major League Soccer, so what did we learn from the weekend’s action? For one thing, Jack McGlynn was imperious in his second game back from injury, as his brace helped the Houston Dynamo knock off LAFC on the road while USMNT assistant Jesus Perez was watching from the stands. The New England Revolution are now unbeaten in the club’s last seven league games, and Carles Gil was a big reason why, as he nabbed a goal and an assist in the Revs’ 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Union. He’s got four goals and four assists so far, and the Revs are sitting pretty at second in the Eastern Conference.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

European seasons aren’t quite wrapped up yet, but that isn’t stopping transfer rumors from flying thick and fast. We start with the Premier League, where Manchester City is reportedly prepared to trigger the release clause of 16-year-old Hertha Berlin midfielder Kennet Eichhorn, before immediately sending the player on loan to continue his development. Elsewhere in England, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Arsenal are all said to be interested in signing Juventus fullback Andrea Cambiaso. Switching lanes to the managerial side of things, Chelsea has reportedly identified Xabi Alonso as the leading candidate to become the next manager of the team, with the Spaniard said to be open to taking the job. Finally, Jose Mourinho is said to be open to taking the Real Madrid job, although he reportedly has a couple conditions that he wants met first.

Free Kicks

  • Kickoff times have been set for Orlando City’s three group stages matches in this year’s Leagues Cup.
  • The Lions will be launching a new merch collection Friday at The Final Whistle.

That’s all I’ve got for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. CF Montreal: Player Grades and Man of the Match

Here’s how your favorite Lions performed in Orlando City’s 2-0 loss to CF Montreal.

Published

1 day ago

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May 11, 2026

By

Image of Griffin Dorsey trying to send the ball upfield against a Montreal defender.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

If you play Football Manager enough, you play plenty of games where the after-match comment is “a bore draw.” That appeared to be where Orlando City’s road game at CF Montreal was headed until a mistake by Robin Jansson in added time led to a penalty which opened the scoring for the hosts. They tacked on another late in stoppage time and the Lions will return home for a three-game set (one of them in the U.S. Open Cup) sore from Saturday’s 2-0 loss to CF Montreal.

Let’s take a look at how Orlando City’s players rated individually in their matchup with the Quebecois.

Starters

GK, Maxime Crépeau, 5.5 — With 25 shots by Montreal, one would’ve figured Crepeau was busy. Not really — he finished with three saves. A goalkeeper is almost never responsible for being scored on from the penalty spot, but Dagur Dan Thorallsson’s goal at the death is one Crepeau will want back, although in fairness it was perfectly placed. The Canadian goalkeeper finished with a 72.7% passing rate and was helped out after being rounded by Prince Owusu in a 1-v-1 opportunity that his teammates should never have allwoed for what would have been a goal if not for Iago’s sliding block to clear it off the line.

D, Adrián Marin, 5.5 — Marin got caught ball-watching in the 34th minute to allow a Wiki Carmona rocket that just went wide. Otherwise, he just didn’t impact the game one way or the other. Marin completed 87.8% of his passes and added one tackle, one block, and three clearances.

D, Robin Jansson, 5 — Jansson played his normal emergency role all game. Unfortunately, he got put off-balance in the first minute of added time in the second half and fell into the legs of Luca Petrasso, giving a penalty. It was a rough ending for the captain, but Orlando left the door open for Montreal and the hosts took it. The Swede also couldn’t close down Thorhallsson to prevent the second late Montreal goal. Jansson completed 78.7% of his passes, with one tackle, 10(!) clearances, and one block.

D, Iago, 6 — We saw both sides of Iago. He had a really nice pass in the 17th minute to free up Eduard Atuesta on goal but the Colombian missed the target to waste Orlando’s best chance of the game. The Brazilian’s biggest highlight moment was in the 76th minute, when Owusu dribbled past Crepeau for an open look at goal but Iago was there to clear it off the line. On the flip side, he also had a dangerous header defending a corner that almost created an own goal, instead hitting the left post. He got pulled wide in the first minute of the second half, allowing a dangerous shot by Owusu. On the offensive end, he got on the end of a corner but headed it right at Thomas Gillier. He was all over the place, which you can expect from a young player. He would’ve gotten a higher grade had the game finished scoreless because of his goal-line clearance and a couple of sparkling long balls that should have led to more. Alas. He finished with zero interceptions or tackles, three blocks, six clearances, and a 92.3% passing rate. He also picked up a yellow card in the sixth minute of added time in the second half preventing a counter on one of his attacking teammates’ many turnovers.

D, Griffin Dorsey, 5.5— While Orlando City was heavily weighted to the left side all game, when the Lions went down the right, it was through Dorsey. He led the break down that side multiple times but had trouble connecting. Dorsey finished with one tackle, three clearances, and one cross while passing at a 79% rate.

MF, Iván Angulo, 4.5 — When Angulo whiffed on a ball in the second minute which caused a Montreal counter, it was an indicator of the night to come. He was sloppy all game long and, by The Mane Land’s unofficial tally, turned the ball over eight times, with the majority of those coming in his own defensive half. It was an ugly night that looked a touch better when Tyrese Spicer departed, changing Angulo’s duties, but it didn’t wipe out a forgettable match. He finished with 90.2% passing, despite being loose with the ball. He was two out of six for successful dribbles and two out of seven in winning ground duels.

MF, Eduard Atuesta, 5.5 — A major part of the toothlessness of the Lions in the match was the midfield play. While Atuesta had a 95% passing rate, the only real impact he had was in the 17th minute, when Iago broke him free with a great pass. Atuesta made a well-timed run, but he ended up doing nothing with it when he sent his shot wide of goal. He had a turnover in the fourth minute to leave Montreal with a 3-on-2 break, leaving me to wonder if it was going to be one of those nights for him. Luckily no, but there was no real contribution either. He picked up a yellow card in the 62nd, was dispossessed once, and committed four fouls.

MF, Braian Ojeda, 5.5— Atuesta’s midfield partner also had trouble linking the play but contributed a touch more defensively. His sloppy handling in the 41st minute allowed Montreal to keep possession and created a corner. In the end, he finished with one tackle, one block, one clearance, and a 90% passing rate.

MF, Tyrese Spicer, 6— Unfortunately, most of Spicer’s contributions came on the defensive end this game because he could never get himself in the flow offensively. While he was 10-for-11 passing, he attempted two shots, one right at the goalkeeper and the other that missed so badly it almost went behind the net without hitting anything. He had just two touches in the opposition box. His biggest highlight was a tackle in the 23rd minute to end a dangerous Montreal possession. He was replaced in the 67th minute by Duncan McGuire. Spicer finished with a 91% passing success rate, led the team in tackles with four, and added two interceptions.

F, Martín Ojeda, 5 — This grade may be a bit harsh. However, when you are a Designated Player, you have to contribute, and Martin Ojeda was invisible at best. With 44 total passes, he was the one having to compensate for the lack of midfield control and it showed by his lack of offensive contribution. He had zero touches in the opposition box, which is not going to be a recipe for Orlando City success. Martin took one shot that was on target and passed at a 91% rate.

F, Justin Ellis, 6.5 (MotM)— Someone has to win Man of the Match. Ellis almost wins it by default as his overall play was the only positive thing all game. While his stats were mediocre, and there was not one moment you can pick to point to, he was the most talented when on the ball, tracked back to collect the ball occasionally, did more to link play than the midfield did, and just didn’t have a negative impact. He was replaced in the 80th by David Brekalo and finished with a 94% passing rate, was four-for-four on successful dribbles, and went five-for-six on ground duels won.

Substitutes

F, Duncan McGuire (67′), 5— McGuire started out playing out of position on the wing and while asked to pick up the offense, McGuire was unable to show anything of promise. Dorsey found him in the 88th minute with a cross, but McGuire turned down a quick shot and held the ball too long while deciding, and he ended up taking a low angle shot that had been there from the beginning that ended up harmless. He passed at a 75% rate and had three touches in the opposition box, turning those into a measly 0.05 expected goals. One of his touches on a promising attack was heavy and wasted the opportunity to get a shot off late in the game.

D, David Brekalo (80′), N/A — Brekalo came on for Ellis with a few minutes remaining, maybe a tactical choice to see out the draw. He completed all seven of his passes and had one clearance. He was not able to do anything to prevent Montreal’s two late goals, but he wasn’t the only one.

MF, Tiago (90′+5), N/A — Tiago entered right after the penalty to try to claw back a goal. Unfortunately, he whiffed on a 50/50 ball just moments before Thorhallsson ended up scoring the game’s second goal. He wasn’t on long enough to issue a grade, however.

D, Zakaria Taifi (90′+5), N/A — The best thing you can say about Taifi’s time is that he didn’t turn the ball over conceding a goal in the five minutes he was on the field.

That’s how I saw the individual performances in Orlando City’s loss to CF Montreal. Let us know what you thought of the game in the comments below, and don’t forget to vote for your Man of the Match.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/11/26

Lions fall to CF Montreal, Pride defeat North Carolina Courage, OCB beats Atlanta United 2, and more.

Published

2 days ago

on

May 11, 2026

By

Image of Barbra Banda taking a shot against North Carolina.
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Justin Glatt

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida, and belated happy Mother’s Day to all you moms out there. I spent the weekend in Texas catching up with friends and family. Let’s wish a happy birthday to Orlando City goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau, who turns 32 today. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Lions Fall to CF Montreal

Orlando City fell 2-0 to CF Montreal at Stade Saputo Saturday on a pair of late goals. After a scoreless first half, the Lions were minutes away from escaping with a point on the road but conceded twice in stoppage time, with former Lion Dagur Dan Thorhallsson adding the insurance goal for Montreal as Orlando City left Canada with zero points. The Lions could not capitalize on their few scoring chances throughout the match. Orlando City returns home for its next match on Wednesday against the Philadelphia Union at Inter&Co Stadium.

Banda’s Late Goal Lifts Pride Over Courage

The Orlando Pride defeated the North Carolina Courage 1-0 at Inter&Co Stadium Friday, as Barbra Banda scored the lone goal late in the second half to help the Pride secure a much-needed win, snapping their two-match losing streak. Banda scored her eighth goal of the season, and she has scored five goals in the last three matches. The Pride will be on the road this week, facing the Boston Legacy Tuesday at Gillette Stadium, followed by another match Saturday against the Denver Summit at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park.

OCB Beats Atlanta United 2 on the Road

Orlando City B defeated Atlanta United 2 with a goal in each half, winning 2-0 at Turner Soccer Complex in Athens, GA Sunday. Gustavo Caraballo scored the opening goal from the spot to give the Young Lions the early lead. In the second half, Issah Haruna added another goal for the Young Lions to put it away and take three points. OCB will be back on the road Sunday to face New England Revolution II at Beirne Stadium in Smithfield, RI.

Americans Abroad

Austin Trusty played a full 90 minutes as Celtic won its sixth consecutive match across all competitions 3-1 against Rangers. Gio Reyna scored his first goal of the season for Borussia Monchengladbach to snap his 16-month goal drought at the club level, but his side fell 3-1 to FC Augsburg. Weston McKennie played 86 minutes for Juventus in a 1-0 win against Lecce. In the Women’s FA Cup semifinals, Alyssa Thompson played 78 minutes for Chelsea, but her side fell 3-2 to Manchester City after extra time. Lindsey Heaps scored for OL Lyonnes while Lily Yohannes and Korbin Shrader were also in action in a 4-1 win against Paris Saint-Germain to lift the Coupe De France trophy. Later today, Brenden Aaronson and Leeds United will face Tottenham Hotspur.

Free Kicks

  • Check out this video on Orlando City’s social media pages featuring some players writing letters to their moms for Mother’s Day.
  • James Rodriguez will reportedly leave Minnesota United this week and will not return to the club after the World Cup concludes this summer.
  • Slavia Prague chairman Jaroslav Tvrdik stated that the club will impose a lifetime ban to fans who invaded the pitch as the club was minutes away from defeating rivals Sparta Prague Saturday to win the Czech First League title before the match was abandoned.
  • Leandro Trossard scored a late winner in the second half to help Arsenal beat West Ham United 1-0 to keep its five-point lead over Manchester City and pull a step closer to clinching the English Premier League title.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

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