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Orlando City’s Opener Marked by Negative Events Unlikely to Reoccur

An evaluation of four key unlikely events that contributed heavily to the 4-2 loss to the Philadelphia Union.

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1 year ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The first article I wrote for The Mane Land was in June of 2024, and by that time Orlando City had played 20 games and there was already a robust amount of data to look at and analyze, and trends were already visible. We are now at the beginning of the 2025 season, and while the one-game sample size makes it feel like the team is terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad, I want to urge everyone to heed the words from this week’s The Mane Land PawedCast and please do not panic.

Despite my love for hip hop music I will also urge you not to listen to French Montana’s “Don’t Panic,” as it is actually a terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad song, but I agree with Montana’s central theme of going ixnay on the anic-pay.

With their season-opening loss, Orlando City is no longer able to get to 100 points this year, but let’s be honest, nobody ever thought that was going to happen, even among the most optimistic of optimistic Lions fans. On the whole, I thought Orlando City actually played pretty well, the Lions just had one of those when-it-rains-it-pours games, and there was a confluence of negative events that happened during Saturday’s match that I think are unlikely to happen again this season, especially not all in the same match:

  • A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a back line that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time.
  • Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese.
  • Three shots that hit the woodwork.
  • Six “big chances” squandered.

Let’s take a look at each of these and evaluate the likelihood of them happening again this season. You may be surprised by just how rare the events that befell the Lions were.

A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a backline that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time

My guess is that during the preseason Orlando City had moments in practice when the back line consisted of (from left to right) Rafael Santos, Rodrigo Schlegel, David Brekalo and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, but that group had never played a minute together in a real match until the season opener. In addition, during the last week of practice in advance of the game, the team surely was focused on a game plan of a Santos-Jansson-Schlegel-Thórhallsson starting group, since that was the announced lineup one hour before kickoff. Losing Jansson was a double blow, as not only did the Lions have to alter their lineup, but he is also the captain and one of the best defenders in the league.

I believe that as the season progresses there will be more defensive lineups used that have never played together before, especially as matches get into the second half and the team makes substitutions, but the likelihood of a late scratch right before a game starts and the team being forced to go with a back line with zero minutes played together is low, especially now that the group that started against Philadelphia — and that same group, but with Alex Freeman instead of Thórhallsson — has logged minutes together.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 3%

Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese

I want to start by saying that to lay the blame on Gallese for the Union scoring four goals on their only four shots would be unfair, because three goals were scored at point-blank range and the fourth was shot into an open net that he had little chance to cover because of how that goal developed. That said, goalkeepers can and do make saves, even on shots from point-blank range, so Gallese could have possibly positioned himself differently or communicated more to the defense earlier to snuff out the attack. I do not think he bears all the blame, but he is not blameless either.

Looking at El Pulpo’s career, fbref.com shows Gallese having started 266 club matches as the goalkeeper, playing for clubs in Peru, Mexico, and in MLS with Orlando City. There were nine matches when he allowed at least four goals while making zero saves, which is 3.4% of his starts. With Orlando City specifically, he had four matches like this out of his 136 starts, which is 2.9%. In a 34-game regular season each game accounts for…would you look at that, 2.9% of the season, so I think the likelihood of another four-plus goals allowed and zero-save game is very low, especially for a goalkeeper of Gallese’s caliber.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 5%

Three shots that hit the woodwork

The Lions smashed three shots off the woodwork against Philadelphia — two off the crossbar (Freeman and Luis Muriel) and one off the post (Marco Pašalić). Muriel and Pašalić hit theirs within seconds of one another, right before Pašalić got the ball back yet again and finally deposited the shot into the net. Hitting the post feels better than missing the goal entirely and better than having a shot saved, but not that much better, since none of those scenarios result in a goal. It may feel a little better, since the shot was (literally) on frame and got by the goalkeeper, but it does not help on the scoreboard.

Going back to the beginning of 2023 Orlando City has played 77 MLS matches, including regular season and playoffs, and in only two of those matches did the Lions put more than two shots off the woodwork. That works out to 2.6%, or once per every 38.5 games, but I think the team’s offense is going to be more prolific this year in terms of shots taken per game, and with a good amount of attacking talent, I think the shots will be more likely to be on and around the goal, leading to a slightly increased possibility of another game of two or more shots off the woodwork.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 10%

Six “big chances” squandered

Fotmob takes everyone’s favorite metric of xG (expected goals) and calls any shot with an xG of 0.15 or greater as a “big chance.” That value is approximately a one-in-six chance of scoring, so we can quibble all day about whether that should be a big chance or not, but if we use that as a baseline, then there were six shots against Philadelphia that were big chances but were not capitalized on. All six of these happened in the second half and were the aforementioned three shots from close range that went off the woodwork by Freeman, Muriel and Pašalić, Pašalić’s close-range attempt that was blocked after Andre Blake fumbled a header from Schlegel, Muriel’s header that Blake saved at full stretch, and Iván Angulo’s shanked mis-hit shot off a great cross from Freeman.

Once again, going back to the beginning of 2023, the Lions have played 77 matches, and they only even created six or more big chances four times total, but twice in those four games they squandered at least six big chances. Two out of 77 is the same 2.6% as it was before, and using similar rationale, I also think that with a better offense will come more big chances, and unfortunately also the ability to miss out on scoring on big chances. Orlando City went one-for-seven in big chances against Philadelphia (Pašalić’s second goal was the one success), and once again I think there is a slight increase in probability for there to be another game when the Lions create six or more big chances but do not score on at least six of those chances.

Reoccurrence Likelihood: 15%

If you listen to The Mane Land PawedCast, you likely know our hosts Michael and Dave will often say that they were told there would be no math when discussing various statistics, but they were never told that by me. In looking at the four events that happened in the opening game, I have assigned the reoccurrence likelihoods to be 3%, 5%, 10%, and 15%.

There is some level of interdependency between these events, so they are not truly independent, but let’s pretend that they are four unique independent events. In that case, to find the probability of a game like the season opener happening again you would do that like this:

Probability = .03 x .05 x .10 x .15

That probability is approximately one in 44,000, which can also be referred to more colloquially as really, really, really unlikely. As I mentioned, there are some dependencies. For example, hitting the woodwork and squandering big chances can be linked, but to have another game where all of these events happen is still unlikely, even if I was way off on my estimates for the reoccurrence likelihoods.

There are 33 regular-season games remaining to play, and even if all of these events do not happen in the same game, Orlando City still needs to try to avoid any of them happening, because as individual events they were not great, and collectively they were a disaster. Couple that with what was likely one of the worst touches of Schlegel’s career at the exact wrong time and it all led to a loss against a team that was eminently beatable.

I view this is as a silver lining, and if you are interested in other silver linings, I wrote several of those in our weekly private newsletter, available only to those who subscribe to our Buy Me a Coffee membership at the TAM Player level or above, which you can do by clicking on this hyperlink. We would love to share even more content with you.

Orlando City has a great opportunity in its next game to show that the season opener was an aberration, full of bad luck and once-in-a-season-type negative events, and the Lions can make us forget all of that by getting a first win under their belt by defeating Toronto FC in the season’s second game. I believe that they will do so, and I am looking forward to watching it happen with my own eyes in Inter&Co Stadium on March 1.

Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/16/26

Orlando City wins friendly, Orlando Pride beaten at home, MLS season returns tonight, and much more.

Published

2 hours ago

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July 16, 2026

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Image of Antoine Griezmann and Martin Ojeda celebrating a goal during Orlando City's 2-1 friendly win at FC Dallas.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Justin Glatt

How’s it going, Mane Landers? For those of us in Florida, it looks like some storms could be heading our way this week. While that can be a bit annoying if you have outdoor plans, hopefully it will make some of this oppressive heat a bit more bearable. Both the Orlando Pride and Orlando City B are on the road on Saturday, so we may get to dodge some dreaded weather delays as well. But for now, let’s get to the links!

Orlando City Wins Friendly at FC Dallas

The Lions went to Texas for a friendly against FC Dallas and won 2-1 at Texas Health Mansfield Stadium — home of North Texas SC, FC Dallas’ MLS NEXT Pro side. Antoine Griezmann seems to be settling in nicely with the club, scoring yet again in this friendly after doing so a week ago against the Tampa Bay Rowdies. Martin Ojeda also got on the scoresheet in the first half and you can check out both finishes below.

While I don’t put too much stock in friendlies, it sure does feel better to be on the winning side of them. This was the final tune-up for Orlando before the Lions hit the road for a match against the San Jose Earthquakes on Wednesday in their first league game since May.

Orlando Pride Shut Out At Home

The Orlando Pride hosted the Boston Legacy and weren’t able to get a result in a 1-0 loss at Inter&Co Stadium. Barbara Olivieri scored the game’s only goal in the 17th minute to give Boston the lead. Orlando had its chances to equalize but couldn’t manage to put together a finished product in the end. This was Orlando’s third loss to an expansion side this season (0-3-1) as the Pride picked up only one point out of 12 in four matches against Boston and Denver. It’s been a season of inconsistency for the Pride, but hopefully that means they’ll come back stronger in Saturday’s road match against the Utah Royals.

MLS Season Returns Tonight

MLS is back! While the Lions aren’t in action until Wednesday, the season resumes tonight with an exciting slate of games. Many eyes will be on the match between the Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps, as it could include Robert Lewandowski’s MLS debut. While it’s a brand new team and league for the forward, he’d be going up against a familiar face in former Bayern Munich teammate Thomas Muller, who has helped Vancouver climb to the top of the Western Conference. Other intriguing matchups tonight include a Canadian clash between CF Montreal and Toronto FC and a rivalry game between the Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers. On Friday, Nashville will host Atlanta United before the LA Galaxy and LAFC square off in the latest edition of El Trafico.

Argentina Will Face Spain in World Cup Final

Argentina orchestrated yet another dramatic victory this World Cup, beating England 2-1 to advance to the World Cup final to face Spain. After a scoreless first half, Anthony Gordon gave England the lead in the 55th minute with his first goal of the tournament. England shifted gears and parked the bus to defend its lead, but Enzo Fernandez scored an equalizer in the 85th minute and Lautaro Martinez gave Argentina its winner in stoppage time. Lionel Messi assisted on both goals, and Argentina is now just one game away from winning its second consecutive World Cup. Sunday’s final should be a great match pitting Argentina’s potent offense up against a Spanish defense that has only conceded once all tournament.

Free Kicks

  • Former Lion Alex Freeman was noted as one of many players whose stock likely went up due to their World Cup performance. Hopefully, a solid summer translates to more playing time with Villarreal and an eventual transfer for Orlando City to benefit from due to the sell-on percentage.
  • Duncan McGuire wasted no time scoring for his new team, putting the ball in the back of the net early on in the Houston Dynamo’s 2-1 friendly win against America de Cali.
  • The Galaxy added Finnish forward Robert Taylor as a free agent, signing him to a contract through the end of the year with an option for all of 2027 as well.
  • The Philadelphia Union are reportedly finalizing the return of Kai Wagner, who only just left the Union for Birmingham City in January.
  • The San Jose Earthquakes are reportedly close to signing Australian forward Luka Jovanovic, who scored 11 goals last season for Adelaide United.

🇦🇺 Sources: San Jose Earthquakes are finalizing a deal to sign Australia youth int'l forward Luka Jovanovic from Adelaide UnitedJovanovic, 21, was co-Golden Boot winner of the A-League with 11g/3a in 1,639 mins last season. Joins on a U-22 initiative deal.

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2026-07-15T16:58:50.262Z

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/15/26

Daryl Dike’s potential return, Orlando Pride prepare for Boston, World Cup news, and more.

Published

1 day ago

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July 15, 2026

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Oh boy, do we have some news for you today. Between the Orlando Pride match tonight, the World Cup this afternoon, and some potential big signings, we have a lot to get to. We also want to wish a very happy birthday to Orlando City B goalkeeper Tristan Himes. Now, let’s get to the links.

The Return of Dike(?)

Forget “It’s coming home,” rather he’s coming home! Per Tom Bogert, Daryl Dike is set to return to Orlando City after his multi-year stint with West Bromwich Albion. Dike had a rough go of it in England, mainly due to injuries he sustained. I figure he just needs some Florida sunshine and the team at Orlando Health to help find the form that made him a terror to Orlando City’s opponents.

It also seems that the departure of Marco Pasalic is not a done deal. There has not been an official bid as of yet, and if Orlando City’s valuation isn’t met, then he may be staying. If he stays, he bolsters the attack. If not, well that’s what Dike is coming back to do and it would supply the Lions with plenty of coin to bolster the roster.

Orlando Pride Set for Boston Legacy

The Orlando Pride host expansion side Boston Legacy FC at Inter&Co Stadium tonight. The Pride will look to avenge a 2-1 loss earlier this season in Boston. After defeating the Kansas City Current over the weekend, Seb Hines’ squad will want to keep the home winning streak going. This may be Barbra Banda’s last match before heading out for the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations tournament later this month, so take the opportunity to head to the match if you are in the Orlando area.

World Cup News

France was unable to keep things going as Spain defeated Les Bleus 2-0 on Bastille Day. La Roja now wait to see whether Argentina or England will be the opponent in the final. As they have done so many times this World Cup, the Spanish did not allow a goal and did enough offensively to advance. Lamine Yamal earned a penalty that Mikel Oyarzabal slotted home to give Spain a lead in the 22nd minute. Pedro Porro added another in the second half and France was unable to muster any magic.

Later today, England and Argentina square off to see which team will play the Spaniards. The amount of history between these teams at World Cups is enough to make most watch the match. I think the bigger question is which team does Gianni Infantino want to win, and will we see the same shenanigans we’ve seen in previous matches featuring these two teams? Don’t worry, England. I’m sure it’ll be fine.

USMNT Reflections

There’s been a bit of space and time for all of us to process the USMNT’s performance at the World Cup and it isn’t all doom and gloom. None other than Carli Lloyd said that despite the way it ended, it was a successful outing for the U.S. Matt Freese is trying to see the positives even though he made a costly mistake that gave up a goal to Belgium. Folarin Balogun said what I was thinking in that a certain phone call about his red card did affect the USMNT’s nerves heading into the match against Belgium. Lastly, the future could be bright thanks to these five USMNT prospects.

Free Kicks

🇨🇱 Atlanta United has signed Chile int'l defedner Paulo Diaz. Versatile but likely to play center back.Joins on a free transfer after spending years at River Plate. Diaz, 31, has 56 caps for Chile.

— Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2026-07-14T14:06:23.290Z

That will do it for today. Check back later for our coverage of the Orlando Pride’s match against Boston Legacy FC. You can follow The Mane Land on Bluesky for updates. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/14/26

Marco Pasalic transfer rumor, Marta up for weekly award, MLS transfer roundup, and more.

Published

2 days ago

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July 14, 2026

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Image of Marta looking for an outlet in action against Kansas City.
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Good morning, everyone. I write to you from Texas, specifically Dallas, as I was in Austin to see friends over the weekend and decided to pop up the road to take in the energy of the World Cup semifinal that will be played in the city later today. I won’t be attending the game, since I don’t wish to sell one of my kidneys but am looking forward to mingling with some of the fans who have traveled here for it. We’ve got a lot to talk about this morning, so let’s get into the links.

Marco Pasalic Transfer Rumor

There have been some quiet rumblings for awhile now that Marco Pasalic may leave Orlando City during the summer transfer window. We now have a more concrete report regarding a potential departure, as the streets are saying that the winger is set to sign for newly promoted Hull City, with a price tag of at least €7 million.

If the move does come to pass, it would reunite him with manager Sergej Jakirovic, who he briefly played for during his time at HNK Rijeka. Jakirovic also stated in a recent interview that he wants to sign Pasalic, so this is a rumor that could have some legs.

Marta Up for Weekly Honors

The Orlando Pride picked up an excellent win on Friday by knocking off the Kansas City Current 3-0, and Marta has been rewarded for her efforts in the victory with a nomination for the NWSL Player of the Week. The Brazilian legend bagged the team’s first goal shortly after halftime, when she found herself in space well outside the box and unleashed a low left-footed drive into the bottom corner for her 50th goal as a Pride player. For some reason, she was snubbed in the Goal of the Week voting despite her impressive strike, so make sure you go vote for her for Player of the Week!

MLS Transfer Roundup

With the MLS summer transfer window opening on Monday, we’ve got a slew of moves to get caught up on. We begin with confirmation of an item that we covered in Monday’s Links, as Nathan Ordaz has officially moved to D.C. United in exchange for up to $2.875 million. The New England Revolution have extended Matt Turner’s loan from Lyon, with the new deal lasting through December. It also has an option to extend the loan again until December 2027, after which the Revs have a purchase option. Atlanta United has signed Paraguayan center back Junior Alonso on a free transfer, with his deal running through the 2028-2029 season. Finally, Charlotte FC has announced the signing of forward Allan Saint-Maximin as a Designated Player. He will occupy the DP slot vacated by Wilfried Zaha.

USWNT Announces Fall Friendlies

The United States Women’s National Team has announced that it will play a pair of October friendlies against Spain in a matchup of the reigning World Cup champions against the reigning Olympic champions. The USWNT will face the top-ranked team in the world on Oct. 10 at Audi Field in Washington D.C., and again on Oct. 13 at Subaru Park in Chester, PA. The Oct. 10 match will also have a pregame retirement celebration for USWNT defender Crystal Dunn. This will be just the fourth time that the two teams have faced each other, with the U.S. winning two of the three previous meetings. The two friendlies will be the last games that the USWNT plays before beginning World Cup qualifying.

Previewing France vs. Spain

The World Cup semifinals begin today, with France and Spain set to throw down in Dallas. For France, the stars are too many to count, with Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and Michael Olise all taking turns lighting up both the field and the scoreboard for the team that has made back-to-back appearances in the final. As far as Spain goes, all the focus is on Lamine Yamal, as the young winger has been key to Spain’s success despite scoring just one goal. If Nico Williams is able to start on the opposite wing, the French won’t be able to key so heavily on Yamal, and it could open up more space for him in which to operate. The matchup between the youngster and Lucas Digne will be key, as will the ability of either Mikel Oyarzabal or Ferran Torres to be effective up top for Spain.

Free Kicks

  • Former Lion Daryl Dike is leaving West Bromwich Albion. We know a team that just traded a striker.

That’s all I’ve got for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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