Orlando City
Orlando City’s Opener Marked by Negative Events Unlikely to Reoccur
An evaluation of four key unlikely events that contributed heavily to the 4-2 loss to the Philadelphia Union.
The first article I wrote for The Mane Land was in June of 2024, and by that time Orlando City had played 20 games and there was already a robust amount of data to look at and analyze, and trends were already visible. We are now at the beginning of the 2025 season, and while the one-game sample size makes it feel like the team is terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad, I want to urge everyone to heed the words from this week’s The Mane Land PawedCast and please do not panic.
Despite my love for hip hop music I will also urge you not to listen to French Montana’s “Don’t Panic,” as it is actually a terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad song, but I agree with Montana’s central theme of going ixnay on the anic-pay.
With their season-opening loss, Orlando City is no longer able to get to 100 points this year, but let’s be honest, nobody ever thought that was going to happen, even among the most optimistic of optimistic Lions fans. On the whole, I thought Orlando City actually played pretty well, the Lions just had one of those when-it-rains-it-pours games, and there was a confluence of negative events that happened during Saturday’s match that I think are unlikely to happen again this season, especially not all in the same match:
- A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a back line that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time.
- Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese.
- Three shots that hit the woodwork.
- Six “big chances” squandered.
Let’s take a look at each of these and evaluate the likelihood of them happening again this season. You may be surprised by just how rare the events that befell the Lions were.
A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a backline that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time
My guess is that during the preseason Orlando City had moments in practice when the back line consisted of (from left to right) Rafael Santos, Rodrigo Schlegel, David Brekalo and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, but that group had never played a minute together in a real match until the season opener. In addition, during the last week of practice in advance of the game, the team surely was focused on a game plan of a Santos-Jansson-Schlegel-Thórhallsson starting group, since that was the announced lineup one hour before kickoff. Losing Jansson was a double blow, as not only did the Lions have to alter their lineup, but he is also the captain and one of the best defenders in the league.
I believe that as the season progresses there will be more defensive lineups used that have never played together before, especially as matches get into the second half and the team makes substitutions, but the likelihood of a late scratch right before a game starts and the team being forced to go with a back line with zero minutes played together is low, especially now that the group that started against Philadelphia — and that same group, but with Alex Freeman instead of Thórhallsson — has logged minutes together.
Reoccurrence Likelihood: 3%
Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese
I want to start by saying that to lay the blame on Gallese for the Union scoring four goals on their only four shots would be unfair, because three goals were scored at point-blank range and the fourth was shot into an open net that he had little chance to cover because of how that goal developed. That said, goalkeepers can and do make saves, even on shots from point-blank range, so Gallese could have possibly positioned himself differently or communicated more to the defense earlier to snuff out the attack. I do not think he bears all the blame, but he is not blameless either.
Looking at El Pulpo’s career, fbref.com shows Gallese having started 266 club matches as the goalkeeper, playing for clubs in Peru, Mexico, and in MLS with Orlando City. There were nine matches when he allowed at least four goals while making zero saves, which is 3.4% of his starts. With Orlando City specifically, he had four matches like this out of his 136 starts, which is 2.9%. In a 34-game regular season each game accounts for…would you look at that, 2.9% of the season, so I think the likelihood of another four-plus goals allowed and zero-save game is very low, especially for a goalkeeper of Gallese’s caliber.
Reoccurrence Likelihood: 5%
Three shots that hit the woodwork
The Lions smashed three shots off the woodwork against Philadelphia — two off the crossbar (Freeman and Luis Muriel) and one off the post (Marco Pašalić). Muriel and Pašalić hit theirs within seconds of one another, right before Pašalić got the ball back yet again and finally deposited the shot into the net. Hitting the post feels better than missing the goal entirely and better than having a shot saved, but not that much better, since none of those scenarios result in a goal. It may feel a little better, since the shot was (literally) on frame and got by the goalkeeper, but it does not help on the scoreboard.
Going back to the beginning of 2023 Orlando City has played 77 MLS matches, including regular season and playoffs, and in only two of those matches did the Lions put more than two shots off the woodwork. That works out to 2.6%, or once per every 38.5 games, but I think the team’s offense is going to be more prolific this year in terms of shots taken per game, and with a good amount of attacking talent, I think the shots will be more likely to be on and around the goal, leading to a slightly increased possibility of another game of two or more shots off the woodwork.
Reoccurrence Likelihood: 10%
Six “big chances” squandered
Fotmob takes everyone’s favorite metric of xG (expected goals) and calls any shot with an xG of 0.15 or greater as a “big chance.” That value is approximately a one-in-six chance of scoring, so we can quibble all day about whether that should be a big chance or not, but if we use that as a baseline, then there were six shots against Philadelphia that were big chances but were not capitalized on. All six of these happened in the second half and were the aforementioned three shots from close range that went off the woodwork by Freeman, Muriel and Pašalić, Pašalić’s close-range attempt that was blocked after Andre Blake fumbled a header from Schlegel, Muriel’s header that Blake saved at full stretch, and Iván Angulo’s shanked mis-hit shot off a great cross from Freeman.
Once again, going back to the beginning of 2023, the Lions have played 77 matches, and they only even created six or more big chances four times total, but twice in those four games they squandered at least six big chances. Two out of 77 is the same 2.6% as it was before, and using similar rationale, I also think that with a better offense will come more big chances, and unfortunately also the ability to miss out on scoring on big chances. Orlando City went one-for-seven in big chances against Philadelphia (Pašalić’s second goal was the one success), and once again I think there is a slight increase in probability for there to be another game when the Lions create six or more big chances but do not score on at least six of those chances.
Reoccurrence Likelihood: 15%
If you listen to The Mane Land PawedCast, you likely know our hosts Michael and Dave will often say that they were told there would be no math when discussing various statistics, but they were never told that by me. In looking at the four events that happened in the opening game, I have assigned the reoccurrence likelihoods to be 3%, 5%, 10%, and 15%.
There is some level of interdependency between these events, so they are not truly independent, but let’s pretend that they are four unique independent events. In that case, to find the probability of a game like the season opener happening again you would do that like this:
Probability = .03 x .05 x .10 x .15
That probability is approximately one in 44,000, which can also be referred to more colloquially as really, really, really unlikely. As I mentioned, there are some dependencies. For example, hitting the woodwork and squandering big chances can be linked, but to have another game where all of these events happen is still unlikely, even if I was way off on my estimates for the reoccurrence likelihoods.
There are 33 regular-season games remaining to play, and even if all of these events do not happen in the same game, Orlando City still needs to try to avoid any of them happening, because as individual events they were not great, and collectively they were a disaster. Couple that with what was likely one of the worst touches of Schlegel’s career at the exact wrong time and it all led to a loss against a team that was eminently beatable.
I view this is as a silver lining, and if you are interested in other silver linings, I wrote several of those in our weekly private newsletter, available only to those who subscribe to our Buy Me a Coffee membership at the TAM Player level or above, which you can do by clicking on this hyperlink. We would love to share even more content with you.
Orlando City has a great opportunity in its next game to show that the season opener was an aberration, full of bad luck and once-in-a-season-type negative events, and the Lions can make us forget all of that by getting a first win under their belt by defeating Toronto FC in the season’s second game. I believe that they will do so, and I am looking forward to watching it happen with my own eyes in Inter&Co Stadium on March 1.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
More Spice or Less? Tyrese Spicer as Starter vs. Substitute
Tyrese Spicer’s performances as an OCSC starter and substitute, and how he ranks as against offensive subs in MLS.
Back in 2015, I worked for a company that assigned me to a project for a company in Trinidad & Tobago, and I spent about half a year traveling back and forth from Orlando to Port of Spain, the capital city. I loved everything about my time in Trinidad & Tobago, and while I promise this will move to soccer shortly and not become a travelogue or a food blog, I have to briefly mention my discovery there of a food called “doubles.”
Doubles are often eaten as a breakfast food but are delicious at any time of the day. Much like with cheesesteaks in Philadelphia, there is a language associated with ordering them. A doubles order usually consists of how many you want and how hot you would like them to be. I do not have a high tolerance for heat, so I often ordered mine with “no pepper,” (tell me you are an American without telling me you are an American), but Trinis generally go with at least slight pepper and often medium or heavy pepper.
All of that discussion of Trinidad & Tobago and pepper brings us to a man who comes from the twin islands and literally has spice in his last name — Tyrese Spicer.
Spicy T was the Man of the Match in our player grades from Orlando City’s most recent MLS game after contributing a goal and an assist. He scored his fourth goal of the MLS season, which ranks second on the team behind Martín Ojeda’s 11. Spicer scored that goal after coming off the bench to replace Tiago, and his bench goal was the seventh for the Lions this season, which ties them for the league lead in goals scored by substitutes:
| Team | Substitute Goals | Total Goals* | Substitute Goal % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City | 7 | 30 | 23% |
| Cincinnati | 7 | 44 | 16% |
| Seattle | 6 | 20 | 30% |
| Miami | 6 | 44 | 14% |
| Portland | 5 | 32 | 16% |
| Dallas | 5 | 31 | 16% |
| St. Louis | 5 | 23 | 22% |
| Nashville | 5 | 35 | 14% |
*Excludes opposition own goals
All four of Spicer’s goals in MLS play have come as a substitute, and he is tied for the league lead with Cincinnati’s Tom Barlow in that category:
| Player | Team | Substitute Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Spicer | Orlando City | 4 |
| Tom Barlow | Cincinnati | 4 |
| Christian Ramirez | Austin | 3 |
| Samuel Sarver | Dallas | 3 |
| Peyton Miller | New England | 3 |
During the entire 2025 MLS season the league leaders in substitute goals scored only four goals off the bench, and Spicer has already reached that tally through Orlando City’s first 18 league games.
Extrapolating those 18 games to the full season would put Spicer on pace for 7.56 goals, and since he has scored all of his goals off the bench, the extrapolation for goals as a substitute would also be for that same amount, which would be the most in MLS since Dejan Joveljić scored eight goals as a substitute for the LA Galaxy in 2022.
A logical question would be: If Spicer is scoring all these goals in limited minutes as a substitute, should Orlando City just make him a starter?
On the surface, it seems like an obvious no.
Put aside the fact that leading scorer Martín Ojeda is out injured but will command a starting spot when he returns, likely at the same left wing position where Spicer usually plays, another fact is that since joining Orlando City in August of 2025, Spicer has played demonstrably better off the bench than as a starter across all competitions (data from Opta’s tracking on fbref.com):
| Role | Minutes Played | Goals | Primary Assists | Goal Contributions per 90 mins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starter | 457 | 2 | 0 | 0.39 |
| Subtitute | 557 | 5 | 4 | 1.45 |
In recent years, Orlando City has benefitted from “supersubs,” as Spicer’s four goals thus far in 2026 marks the fourth consecutive season in which a Lion has scored at least four goals in a season as a substitute. Duncan McGuire started the trend with five in 2023 and added four in 2024. Ramiro Enrique followed with four off the bench in 2025 (and likely would have scored more that had he not transferred in August; I really wish he had stayed. Sigh.), and now Spicer has four in 2026 with many games still to play. McGuire’s five in 2023 is the joint club record with Júlio Baptista, as The Beast lived up to that moniker when coming off the bench in 2016, but Spicer is hot on their heels.
Some players simply perform better off the bench, and Spicer, at least so far, seems to be in that Manu Ginóbili mold of a player with starter-level talent that is better at finishing games than starting them.
Orlando City General Manager and Sporting Director Ricardo Moreira noted this when the club acquired Spicer from Toronto, saying that the Trinidad & Tobago international player would “bring additional depth and energy” and that “his relentless work rate and ability to stretch the field will give us a much-needed boost and add another dimension to our attack moving forward.”
Spicer’s boosts off the bench have led to two game-winning goals this season, the fourth in the amazing 4-3 comeback victory over Inter Miami in May and the only goal in the 1-0 home victory over Nashville at the end of July.
August is a packed month for Orlando City, with at least eight games on the calendar and possibly nine, depending on how the Lions do in Leagues Cup. We’ll see throughout the rest of August (this article was written before the Leagues Cup game against CF Monterrey, which had Spicer in the starting lineup) if Martín Perelman is locked in to using Spicer as a supersub or gives him additional chances as a starter, as there will need to be some rotation with games every three to four days.
The numbers say that Perelman should keep looking for someone to hold down the left wing for the first portion of the game and bring in Spicer to close, but Orlando City’s poor play on the left side of the field in the first half helped dig a hole it could not climb out of against the Red Bulls, and this is a critical part of the season, so getting positive results is of paramount importance.
I’m looking forward to finding out if Perelman makes the call to go from no pepper to Spicy T as a frequent left wing starter, at least until Ojeda returns. The numbers are against it, as am I, but we shall see what Perelman orders.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Pasalic Remains in Purple
Marco Pasalic is staying. What does that mean for Orlando City’s season?
At least for the moment, it seems the Marco Pasalic to Hull City transfer is a bust. With the Croatian back in the mix for Orlando City, the team will have two of three Designated Players available. Unfortunately, we’re still waiting for Martin Ojeda to make it back from his injury. In the meantime, the return of the left-footed, Croatian rocket launcher is a good thing, right? Let’s take a look at the arguments for and against, and how it affects the rest of the squad.
More Firepower
Pasalic has the potential to contribute a significant number of goals for Orlando City. We haven’t seen what he can do when on the pitch with Antoine Griezmann, who can create space for Pasalic on the right side of the box. Griezmann can drag defenders to the left, allowing Pasalic more of an opening to unleash his signature top-of-the-box shot. Griezmann or Justin Ellis will be able to provide slick, no-look passes to a hopefully wide-open Pasalic.
Additionally, if Pasalic regains his form, the threat he poses will allow the left side of the attack some more space to move. There’s also the Daryl Dike factor. Once the big man is fully integrated back into the attack, there is a veritable smorgasbord of attacking options for an attack-oriented Martin Perelman to employ. He does seem to have an “all gas, no brakes, who needs defense” approach to tactics. Obviously, that is hyperbole, but not by much.
All of this is contingent on Pasalic resetting his mindset to give 100% to Orlando City. As a professional, I expect he will believe he is going to do so, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy, given he obviously wanted to make a move back to Europe. Recommitting to a team you thought you were leaving is never easy, no matter what anyone says.
Defensive Implications
If Orlando City had sold Pasalic, there would have been an infusion of cash available to help build the roster. I think it unlikely that a new Designated Player could be signed before the secondary window closes. That kind of money could be used on a decent left back, another veteran center back, or help in the defensive midfield. Maybe even all of the above.
Now, the money is tied up and the defense still has so many challenges. I don’t think Pasalic’s offensive production will be able to overcome the goals the defense will give up the rest of the season. Not losing a Designated Player at this point of the season is generally a good thing, especially with Ojeda being injured, though I’m not convinced things are actually better with Pasalic staying. Of course, even if he had been sold, there’s no guarantee that Ricardo Moreira would reinforce the defense in the transfer window.
I’m hopeful that Pasalic rededicates himself to Orlando City and starts to produce some goals for the Lions, because given this defense, the team will need as many goals as possible. Let us know your thoughts on how Pasalic staying plays out. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 8/6/26
Orlando City beats Monterrey, Marco Pasalic reportedly staying in Orlando, Zambia ousted from Women’s Africa Cup of Nations, and more.
It’s Thursday, which means we’re celebrating an Orlando City victory. The Lions have been midweek monsters this season and it’s been a nice boost of energy to get through the week. If any of you are performing some sort of ritual on Wednesday nights, please keep it up. Let’s get to the big win and more in today’s links!
Orlando City Beats Monterrey in Leagues Cup
After a lengthy weather delay, Orlando City beat Monterrey 2-1 at home in its first match of this year’s Leagues Cup. The video review system was put through its paces in this match, overturning a Monterrey goal, a Monterrey red card, and a penalty on Orlando’s Robin Jansson in separate instances. Be sure to check out our recap of the win, which included a nice performance from Tyrese Spicer as a starter and the return of Daryl Dike off the bench. The Lions will be back in action on Saturday against Club Leon before wrapping up this phase of the tournament on Wednesday against San Luis.
Marco Pasalic Reportedly Staying in Orlando
There’s been buzz this summer regarding Marco Pasalic being transferred form Orlando City to Hull City, but the move is reportedly not going to happen according to Croatian sports newspaper Sportske Novosti.
Pasalic had 12 goals and five assists in his first MLS season last year after joining Orlando from HNK Rijeka. While the 25-year-old hasn’t quite had the same impact so far this season, he did play for Croatia in this summer’s World Cup and could benefit from the addition of Antoine Griezmann to the offense. Pasalic came off the bench for a late cameo on Wednesday to help see out the win over Monterrey.
Zambia Eliminated From WAFCON Despite Win
Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda scored in Zambia’s 2-1 win against Malawi in the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations, but it wasn’t enough for Zambia to avoid elimination. Zambia, Malawi, and Nigeria all finished with six points in the group stage, but Zambia was ousted due to the third tiebreaker of goals scored in matches between the three. It’s a rough way to go out for Zambia, which finished with the best overall goal differential in the group. As a result, Zambia will not take part in the 2027 Women’s World Cup. Banda finished the tournament with five goals and will return to a Pride team in desperate need of help on offense.
U.S. Qualifies for 2027 U-20 Men’s World Cup
The United States U-19 Men’s National Team beat Guatemala 3-1 to advance to the semifinals of the Concacaf U-20 Men’s Championship, qualifying for the 2027 U-20 World Cup and 2027 Pan American Games in the process. Guatemala struck first, but the U.S. found an equalizer right before halftime and went on to win the game with a pair of goals in the second half. Orlando City midfielder Colin Guske was a starter in the match as well. The U.S. will take on Costa Rica in the semifinals Friday at the Azteca.
FIFA Backs Gianni Infantino as Pressure Rises
As the soccer world reacts to FIFA President Gianni Infantino’s failed scheme to sell stakes in the World Cup, FIFA reaffirmed its support for him at a crisis meeting in Morocco over his presidency. There have been many calls for reform due to Infantino’s actions, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stating he does not have confidence in him and Portuguese legend Luis Figo calling for him to step down. FIFA also denied a report that Infantino offered Morocco hosting for the 2030 World Cup final in exchange for support.
Free Kicks
- Former Lion Nico Lodeiro announced his retirement from professional soccer and Orlando City General Manager and Sporting Director Ricardo Moreira wished him the best with one of his highlights as a Lion.
- The Columbus Crew added Chilean forward Gonzalo Tapia on loan from Sao Paulo through the 2027 MLS sprint season.
- Eva Olid was announced as the next head coach of Manchester United’s women’s soccer team, replacing former Pride head coach Marc Skinner. She has spent the past five years with Hearts and won the Scottish Women’s Premier League title last season.
- Wrexham signed midfielder Ben Whiteman, who has 200 EFL Championship appearances under his belt and was Preston North End’s captain.
- Mo Salah arrived in Istanbul as it appears he will sign with Trabzonspor after nine seasons with Liverpool. Does this make the Turkish Super Lig a retirement league or does that label only apply when it’s about MLS?
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!
More Spice or Less? Tyrese Spicer as Starter vs. Substitute
Pasalic Remains in Purple
Lion Links: 8/6/26
Orlando City vs. New York Red Bulls: Final Score 3-2 as Poor Start Sinks Lions
Orlando City vs. Monterrey, Leagues Cup: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
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