Orlando City
Orlando City’s Opener Marked by Negative Events Unlikely to Reoccur
An evaluation of four key unlikely events that contributed heavily to the 4-2 loss to the Philadelphia Union.
The first article I wrote for The Mane Land was in June of 2024, and by that time Orlando City had played 20 games and there was already a robust amount of data to look at and analyze, and trends were already visible. We are now at the beginning of the 2025 season, and while the one-game sample size makes it feel like the team is terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad, I want to urge everyone to heed the words from this week’s The Mane Land PawedCast and please do not panic.
Despite my love for hip hop music I will also urge you not to listen to French Montana’s “Don’t Panic,” as it is actually a terrible, horrible, no good, and very bad song, but I agree with Montana’s central theme of going ixnay on the anic-pay.
With their season-opening loss, Orlando City is no longer able to get to 100 points this year, but let’s be honest, nobody ever thought that was going to happen, even among the most optimistic of optimistic Lions fans. On the whole, I thought Orlando City actually played pretty well, the Lions just had one of those when-it-rains-it-pours games, and there was a confluence of negative events that happened during Saturday’s match that I think are unlikely to happen again this season, especially not all in the same match:
- A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a back line that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time.
- Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese.
- Three shots that hit the woodwork.
- Six “big chances” squandered.
Let’s take a look at each of these and evaluate the likelihood of them happening again this season. You may be surprised by just how rare the events that befell the Lions were.
A late scratch of a starting defender, forcing a backline that had never played together to start the match with zero preparation time
My guess is that during the preseason Orlando City had moments in practice when the back line consisted of (from left to right) Rafael Santos, Rodrigo Schlegel, David Brekalo and Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, but that group had never played a minute together in a real match until the season opener. In addition, during the last week of practice in advance of the game, the team surely was focused on a game plan of a Santos-Jansson-Schlegel-Thórhallsson starting group, since that was the announced lineup one hour before kickoff. Losing Jansson was a double blow, as not only did the Lions have to alter their lineup, but he is also the captain and one of the best defenders in the league.
I believe that as the season progresses there will be more defensive lineups used that have never played together before, especially as matches get into the second half and the team makes substitutions, but the likelihood of a late scratch right before a game starts and the team being forced to go with a back line with zero minutes played together is low, especially now that the group that started against Philadelphia — and that same group, but with Alex Freeman instead of Thórhallsson — has logged minutes together.
Reoccurrence Likelihood: 3%
Zero saves and four goals allowed by Pedro Gallese
I want to start by saying that to lay the blame on Gallese for the Union scoring four goals on their only four shots would be unfair, because three goals were scored at point-blank range and the fourth was shot into an open net that he had little chance to cover because of how that goal developed. That said, goalkeepers can and do make saves, even on shots from point-blank range, so Gallese could have possibly positioned himself differently or communicated more to the defense earlier to snuff out the attack. I do not think he bears all the blame, but he is not blameless either.
Looking at El Pulpo’s career, fbref.com shows Gallese having started 266 club matches as the goalkeeper, playing for clubs in Peru, Mexico, and in MLS with Orlando City. There were nine matches when he allowed at least four goals while making zero saves, which is 3.4% of his starts. With Orlando City specifically, he had four matches like this out of his 136 starts, which is 2.9%. In a 34-game regular season each game accounts for…would you look at that, 2.9% of the season, so I think the likelihood of another four-plus goals allowed and zero-save game is very low, especially for a goalkeeper of Gallese’s caliber.
Reoccurrence Likelihood: 5%
Three shots that hit the woodwork
The Lions smashed three shots off the woodwork against Philadelphia — two off the crossbar (Freeman and Luis Muriel) and one off the post (Marco Pašalić). Muriel and Pašalić hit theirs within seconds of one another, right before Pašalić got the ball back yet again and finally deposited the shot into the net. Hitting the post feels better than missing the goal entirely and better than having a shot saved, but not that much better, since none of those scenarios result in a goal. It may feel a little better, since the shot was (literally) on frame and got by the goalkeeper, but it does not help on the scoreboard.
Going back to the beginning of 2023 Orlando City has played 77 MLS matches, including regular season and playoffs, and in only two of those matches did the Lions put more than two shots off the woodwork. That works out to 2.6%, or once per every 38.5 games, but I think the team’s offense is going to be more prolific this year in terms of shots taken per game, and with a good amount of attacking talent, I think the shots will be more likely to be on and around the goal, leading to a slightly increased possibility of another game of two or more shots off the woodwork.
Reoccurrence Likelihood: 10%
Six “big chances” squandered
Fotmob takes everyone’s favorite metric of xG (expected goals) and calls any shot with an xG of 0.15 or greater as a “big chance.” That value is approximately a one-in-six chance of scoring, so we can quibble all day about whether that should be a big chance or not, but if we use that as a baseline, then there were six shots against Philadelphia that were big chances but were not capitalized on. All six of these happened in the second half and were the aforementioned three shots from close range that went off the woodwork by Freeman, Muriel and Pašalić, Pašalić’s close-range attempt that was blocked after Andre Blake fumbled a header from Schlegel, Muriel’s header that Blake saved at full stretch, and Iván Angulo’s shanked mis-hit shot off a great cross from Freeman.
Once again, going back to the beginning of 2023, the Lions have played 77 matches, and they only even created six or more big chances four times total, but twice in those four games they squandered at least six big chances. Two out of 77 is the same 2.6% as it was before, and using similar rationale, I also think that with a better offense will come more big chances, and unfortunately also the ability to miss out on scoring on big chances. Orlando City went one-for-seven in big chances against Philadelphia (Pašalić’s second goal was the one success), and once again I think there is a slight increase in probability for there to be another game when the Lions create six or more big chances but do not score on at least six of those chances.
Reoccurrence Likelihood: 15%
If you listen to The Mane Land PawedCast, you likely know our hosts Michael and Dave will often say that they were told there would be no math when discussing various statistics, but they were never told that by me. In looking at the four events that happened in the opening game, I have assigned the reoccurrence likelihoods to be 3%, 5%, 10%, and 15%.
There is some level of interdependency between these events, so they are not truly independent, but let’s pretend that they are four unique independent events. In that case, to find the probability of a game like the season opener happening again you would do that like this:
Probability = .03 x .05 x .10 x .15
That probability is approximately one in 44,000, which can also be referred to more colloquially as really, really, really unlikely. As I mentioned, there are some dependencies. For example, hitting the woodwork and squandering big chances can be linked, but to have another game where all of these events happen is still unlikely, even if I was way off on my estimates for the reoccurrence likelihoods.
There are 33 regular-season games remaining to play, and even if all of these events do not happen in the same game, Orlando City still needs to try to avoid any of them happening, because as individual events they were not great, and collectively they were a disaster. Couple that with what was likely one of the worst touches of Schlegel’s career at the exact wrong time and it all led to a loss against a team that was eminently beatable.
I view this is as a silver lining, and if you are interested in other silver linings, I wrote several of those in our weekly private newsletter, available only to those who subscribe to our Buy Me a Coffee membership at the TAM Player level or above, which you can do by clicking on this hyperlink. We would love to share even more content with you.
Orlando City has a great opportunity in its next game to show that the season opener was an aberration, full of bad luck and once-in-a-season-type negative events, and the Lions can make us forget all of that by getting a first win under their belt by defeating Toronto FC in the season’s second game. I believe that they will do so, and I am looking forward to watching it happen with my own eyes in Inter&Co Stadium on March 1.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Inside the Numbers: Goal Scoring and Shot Creation for Orlando City, OCB, and the Pride
A comparison among all three Orlando teams on where their goals and chance creation have come from.
Starting next week, all three Orlando teams will be back in season. After playing the most games (15) going into the World Cup break, Orlando City will return having played fewer games than both the Pride (will be at 16 games) and Orlando City B (will be at 19 games). MLS NEXT Pro channeled, fittingly, its inner Junior Senior and said we “won’t stop (won’t stop) won’t stop the beat” and kept playing through the break, hence OCB’s large lead in games played. The Pride returned two weeks ago, and are in the midst of a two-game week to vault them past Orlando City as well.
As of the writing of this article Orlando City had played 15 games, the Pride 14, and OCB 18, and with all teams coming back into action this felt like a good time to have a good time by talking about the most fun part of soccer — creating chances and scoring goals. Goalkeepers might disagree with that statement, but they can take inspiration by what they see when they look left and right on the goal line and pipe down.
The three charts below show every player who has scored at least one goal for any of the three Orlando teams thus far this season, using FotMob’s data for “chances created.” Chances created is FotMob’s category name for the stat also known as key passes (the MLS and MLS NEXT Pro websites track these pretty well, the NWSL’s website not so much), which are classified as the final pass that happened before a player takes a shot.
We’ll start with the Pride, using data through their game against Kansas City on July 10:
| Player | Minutes | Goals | Goal Share | Chances Created* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barbra Banda | 1,017 | 12 | 57% | 1.59 |
| Haley McCutcheon | 1,260 | 2 | 10% | 1.29 |
| Hannah Anderson | 545 | 2 | 10% | 0.17 |
| Marta | 346 | 2 | 10% | 1.30 |
| Cori Dyke | 1,244 | 1 | 5% | 0.14 |
| Jacquie Ovalle | 520 | 1 | 5% | 2.25 |
| Nicole Payne | 249 | 1 | 5% | 0.72 |
*per 90 minutes
Barbra Banda’s production continues to be prodigious. She is currently the only player in league history to play more than 1,000 minutes in a season and average more than one goal per 90 minutes (1.06). Her 12 goals accounts for nearly three out of every five scored by the Pride, and she is the only player in the league with a goal share higher than 50%, which says just as much about the rest of the Pride’s offense as it does Banda. Center back Hannah Anderson ranking in a tie for second among goal scorers is also a little concerning.
On the flip side of that concern, however, is a reminder that Marta and Jacquie Ovalle have not even played a combined 900 minutes. When they play, they create shots — in particular Ovalle, who is in the top 10 in the league in chances created per 90 minutes — and Pride fans can continue to imagine what it would be like to see a front line of Banda, Ovalle, and Marta, and to see how they would all create shots and goals for one another.
Moving from one team with a dominant primary scorer to another, Orlando City is up next:
| Player | Minutes | Goals | Goal Share | Chances Created* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Ojeda | 1,313 | 11 | 48% | 1.58 |
| Griffin Dorsey | 951 | 2 | 9% | 0.85 |
| Marco Pašalić | 642 | 2 | 9% | 0.70 |
| Duncan McGuire | 481 | 2 | 9% | 1.12 |
| Tyrese Spicer | 440 | 2 | 9% | 1.43 |
| Tiago | 584 | 1 | 4% | 0.46 |
| Justin Ellis | 534 | 1 | 4% | 1.69 |
| Luis Otávio | 417 | 1 | 4% | 0.22 |
| Ignacio Gómez | 14 | 1 | 4% | 0.00 |
*per 90 minutes
Martín Ojeda’s 48% goal share (it’s actually 47.8%, but I rounded all the goal shares to two digits, which is why that column does not appear to sum to 100%; you can breathe a sigh of relief, the math maths) ranks him just behind the 48.1% of Chicago’s Hugo Cuypers, and those two players are the only two players above 45% in MLS. Orlando City’s pattern looks remarkably similar to the Pride’s, with one player scoring most of the goals and everyone else at two or one. The arrival of Antoine Griezmann and the rumored return of Daryl Dike could, and probably should, change that, but we know that Duncan McGuire will not score any more goals for the Lions and Marco Pašalić is also rumored to be moving on as well, so it likely will be someone else who steps up.
Please someone step up.
When it comes to creating shots, Orlando City does not have a go-to player like Ovalle, but both Justin Ellis and Ojeda are in the top 40 in the league. As will be seen below, Ellis is already an elite creator when playing against players his own age, and in a decent sample of minutes, he has shown he has the talent to compete at the MLS level. The next few weeks will reveal a lot about his ability to continue to contribute, as teams have now had the chance to watch him play in MLS and will have him in their game plans once the season resumes. I think he will continue to excel, especially since in recent weeks he has had a chance to play alongside and learn from Griezmann.
Speaking of Griezmann, Orlando City’s newest Lion created 1.90 chances per 90 minutes in La Liga and 1.86 during Champions League play this past season, so I think it is a safe assumption that Griezmann will immediately create chances at a high level once the season resumes. The big question will be if someone will step up to complement Ojeda as a second scorer. Again, I beg someone to do so.
And now for OCB, a team with plenty of players who have stepped up:
| Player | Minutes | Goals | Goal Share | Chances Created* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Leão | 1,195 | 7 | 19% | 1.51 |
| Harvey Sarajian | 1,118 | 5 | 14% | 2.01 |
| Gustavo Caraballo | 895 | 4 | 11% | 2.41 |
| Justin Ellis | 356 | 3 | 8% | 3.03 |
| Justin Hylton | 398 | 3 | 8% | 1.13 |
| Matthew Belgodere | 847 | 3 | 8% | 2.13 |
| Issah Haruna | 1,171 | 3 | 8% | 1.54 |
| Bernardo Rhein | 1,428 | 2 | 5% | 1.58 |
| Ignacio Gómez | 902 | 2 | 5% | 0.50 |
| Nicolas Lasheras | 259 | 1 | 3% | 0.35 |
| Zakaria Taifi | 254 | 1 | 3% | 0.35 |
| Jacob Ramírez | 218 | 1 | 3% | 0.83 |
| Caleb Trombino | 316 | 1 | 3% | 1.14 |
| Dylan Judelson | 1,030 | 1 | 3% | 0.61 |
*per 90 minutes
The Young Lions do not have a single scorer dominating the chart like the other two Orlando teams, but unlike their fellow teams, they have an abundance of players who have scored more than twice this season. Seven different players have scored three or more times and 14 players have scored at least once. As a team, OCB ranks fourth in the league in goals scored per game. No player accounts for more than 20% of the team’s goals, making OCB difficult to defend.
Another reason the Young Lions are difficult to defend is that so many players are constantly looking to set up their teammates for shots and are skilled enough to be able to do so. Four attacking players have created more than two chances per 90 minutes, including the aforementioned Ellis, during his early season games with OCB, and defender Bernardo Rhein creates more shots than almost everyone on Orlando City and the Pride.
The diversity of OCB’s attack, especially as compared to the senior Lions and the Pride, is on display in the chart below, which shows all of the players who have scored at least one goal in league play and their associated chances created per 90 minutes values. OCB’s players are in yellow, Orlando City’s in purple, and the Pride’s in light blue.
It may be subjective whether you think Florida sits on the Gulf of Mexico or the Gulf of America, but there is also a gulf in Orlando and that is between Banda and Ojeda and the rest of their teammates.
Hopefully, by the time the regular seasons wrap up for all three teams, the gulf is more like a cove, or better yet a stream, as additional scorers have emerged like hot springs for the Lions and the Pride. OCB will be fine if it continues to flood the field with all of its attacking talent. It is the senior teams that need to look deep inside the well to find some additional scorers.
By this time next week, all three seasons will be going again, and with the games coming fast and furious in July and August, we will rapidly see if the second part of the season will look like more of the same, or if that World Cup break will lead to a sea change as the season continues.
Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 7/16/26
Orlando City wins friendly, Orlando Pride beaten at home, MLS season returns tonight, and much more.
How’s it going, Mane Landers? For those of us in Florida, it looks like some storms could be heading our way this week. While that can be a bit annoying if you have outdoor plans, hopefully it will make some of this oppressive heat a bit more bearable. Both the Orlando Pride and Orlando City B are on the road on Saturday, so we may get to dodge some dreaded weather delays as well. But for now, let’s get to the links!
Orlando City Wins Friendly at FC Dallas
The Lions went to Texas for a friendly against FC Dallas and won 2-1 at Texas Health Mansfield Stadium — home of North Texas SC, FC Dallas’ MLS NEXT Pro side. Antoine Griezmann seems to be settling in nicely with the club, scoring yet again in this friendly after doing so a week ago against the Tampa Bay Rowdies. Martin Ojeda also got on the scoresheet in the first half and you can check out both finishes below.
While I don’t put too much stock in friendlies, it sure does feel better to be on the winning side of them. This was the final tune-up for Orlando before the Lions hit the road for a match against the San Jose Earthquakes on Wednesday in their first league game since May.
Orlando Pride Shut Out At Home
The Orlando Pride hosted the Boston Legacy and weren’t able to get a result in a 1-0 loss at Inter&Co Stadium. Barbara Olivieri scored the game’s only goal in the 17th minute to give Boston the lead. Orlando had its chances to equalize but couldn’t manage to put together a finished product in the end. This was Orlando’s third loss to an expansion side this season (0-3-1) as the Pride picked up only one point out of 12 in four matches against Boston and Denver. It’s been a season of inconsistency for the Pride, but hopefully that means they’ll come back stronger in Saturday’s road match against the Utah Royals.
MLS Season Returns Tonight
MLS is back! While the Lions aren’t in action until Wednesday, the season resumes tonight with an exciting slate of games. Many eyes will be on the match between the Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps, as it could include Robert Lewandowski’s MLS debut. While it’s a brand new team and league for the forward, he’d be going up against a familiar face in former Bayern Munich teammate Thomas Muller, who has helped Vancouver climb to the top of the Western Conference. Other intriguing matchups tonight include a Canadian clash between CF Montreal and Toronto FC and a rivalry game between the Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers. On Friday, Nashville will host Atlanta United before the LA Galaxy and LAFC square off in the latest edition of El Trafico.
Argentina Will Face Spain in World Cup Final
Argentina orchestrated yet another dramatic victory this World Cup, beating England 2-1 to advance to the World Cup final to face Spain. After a scoreless first half, Anthony Gordon gave England the lead in the 55th minute with his first goal of the tournament. England shifted gears and parked the bus to defend its lead, but Enzo Fernandez scored an equalizer in the 85th minute and Lautaro Martinez gave Argentina its winner in stoppage time. Lionel Messi assisted on both goals, and Argentina is now just one game away from winning its second consecutive World Cup. Sunday’s final should be a great match pitting Argentina’s potent offense up against a Spanish defense that has only conceded once all tournament.
Free Kicks
- Former Lion Alex Freeman was noted as one of many players whose stock likely went up due to their World Cup performance. Hopefully, a solid summer translates to more playing time with Villarreal and an eventual transfer for Orlando City to benefit from due to the sell-on percentage.
- Duncan McGuire wasted no time scoring for his new team, putting the ball in the back of the net early on in the Houston Dynamo’s 2-1 friendly win against America de Cali.
- The Galaxy added Finnish forward Robert Taylor as a free agent, signing him to a contract through the end of the year with an option for all of 2027 as well.
- The Philadelphia Union are reportedly finalizing the return of Kai Wagner, who only just left the Union for Birmingham City in January.
- The San Jose Earthquakes are reportedly close to signing Australian forward Luka Jovanovic, who scored 11 goals last season for Adelaide United.
- Enjoy this comprehensive list of United States Men’s National Team head coach candidates should Mauricio Pochettino find a new gig.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 7/15/26
Daryl Dike’s potential return, Orlando Pride prepare for Boston, World Cup news, and more.
Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Oh boy, do we have some news for you today. Between the Orlando Pride match tonight, the World Cup this afternoon, and some potential big signings, we have a lot to get to. We also want to wish a very happy birthday to Orlando City B goalkeeper Tristan Himes. Now, let’s get to the links.
The Return of Dike(?)
Forget “It’s coming home,” rather he’s coming home! Per Tom Bogert, Daryl Dike is set to return to Orlando City after his multi-year stint with West Bromwich Albion. Dike had a rough go of it in England, mainly due to injuries he sustained. I figure he just needs some Florida sunshine and the team at Orlando Health to help find the form that made him a terror to Orlando City’s opponents.
It also seems that the departure of Marco Pasalic is not a done deal. There has not been an official bid as of yet, and if Orlando City’s valuation isn’t met, then he may be staying. If he stays, he bolsters the attack. If not, well that’s what Dike is coming back to do and it would supply the Lions with plenty of coin to bolster the roster.
Orlando Pride Set for Boston Legacy
The Orlando Pride host expansion side Boston Legacy FC at Inter&Co Stadium tonight. The Pride will look to avenge a 2-1 loss earlier this season in Boston. After defeating the Kansas City Current over the weekend, Seb Hines’ squad will want to keep the home winning streak going. This may be Barbra Banda’s last match before heading out for the Women’s Africa Cup of Nations tournament later this month, so take the opportunity to head to the match if you are in the Orlando area.
World Cup News
France was unable to keep things going as Spain defeated Les Bleus 2-0 on Bastille Day. La Roja now wait to see whether Argentina or England will be the opponent in the final. As they have done so many times this World Cup, the Spanish did not allow a goal and did enough offensively to advance. Lamine Yamal earned a penalty that Mikel Oyarzabal slotted home to give Spain a lead in the 22nd minute. Pedro Porro added another in the second half and France was unable to muster any magic.
Later today, England and Argentina square off to see which team will play the Spaniards. The amount of history between these teams at World Cups is enough to make most watch the match. I think the bigger question is which team does Gianni Infantino want to win, and will we see the same shenanigans we’ve seen in previous matches featuring these two teams? Don’t worry, England. I’m sure it’ll be fine.
USMNT Reflections
There’s been a bit of space and time for all of us to process the USMNT’s performance at the World Cup and it isn’t all doom and gloom. None other than Carli Lloyd said that despite the way it ended, it was a successful outing for the U.S. Matt Freese is trying to see the positives even though he made a costly mistake that gave up a goal to Belgium. Folarin Balogun said what I was thinking in that a certain phone call about his red card did affect the USMNT’s nerves heading into the match against Belgium. Lastly, the future could be bright thanks to these five USMNT prospects.
Free Kicks
- Atlanta United has signed Chilean defender Paulo Diaz on a free transfer. I didn’t realize a team could improve the defense with signings.
- As I alluded to above, Ismail Elfath will lead an all-U.S. Soccer referee crew for the match between Argentina and England. I’m curious to see how it plays out.
- If you want to watch the Bundesliga, you may need to get another streaming service as the U.S. rights are moving from ESPN to USA Network & Fandango.
- Charlotte FC is ending the practice of charging Personal Seat Licenses (PSLs) in an effort to stem declining attendance and slower ticket sales. I’m glad that was an experiment that failed in MLS even if it is standard in other American professional sports.
- The New England Revolution have signed 18-year-old Peyton Miller to a contract extension through the 2028-2029 season.
- Former Orlando City B defender Nabi Kibunguchy has signed with USL Championship side Indy Eleven. We wish him luck with his new team.
That will do it for today. Check back later for our coverage of the Orlando Pride’s match against Boston Legacy FC. You can follow The Mane Land on Bluesky for updates. Vamos Orlando!
Inside the Numbers: Goal Scoring and Shot Creation for Orlando City, OCB, and the Pride
Orlando Pride vs. Boston Legacy FC: Five Takeaways
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