Orlando City
Orlando City Was Hot, But Now Is Not — An Explanation
A comparison of the Lions’ start to the season vs. recent form.

Years ago, back during the early days of the new millennium, one of the first websites to ever “go viral” was the matchmaking site AmIHotOrNot.com. I, of course, never visited this site, as I had access to a mirror on the wall and already knew who was the fairest of them all (not me, the mirror was pretty clear about that). But as a college student during those years, I knew of the site and how it quickly was getting millions of views per day. Today’s topic is related to hot and not, but it is the significantly more important topic of Orlando City’s performance on the field during the 2025 season.
During the first six games of the season, the Lions looked better than any previous Orlando City team in the club’s MLS era in terms of early season offensive prowess. The squad led the league in goals scored, the Designated Players were scoring or contributing to nearly every goal, and with Duncan McGuire still to return to add even more firepower, it seemed like there might be the possibility of running out of purple smoke to shoot off in front of The Wall with how many goals Orlando City was scoring.
And then, with apologies to Prince, purple flames were doused by purple rain, and we found out what it sounds like when Lions fans cry. To understand why the offense went from 2.5 goals scored per game to being shut out in three straight matches for the first time since 2018 we need to first consider whether the start to the season was an aberration itself, and had our expectations misaligned for how this team would perform for the rest of the season. Let’s take a look at how the first six games of 2025 compared with the second half of the 2024 regular season (17 games):
Metric | 2024 Final 17 | 2025 First 6 |
---|---|---|
Goals per Game | 2.5 | 2.5 |
Shots on Target per Game | 5.6 | 5.5 |
Shots on Target % | 40% | 35% |
Goal Conversions per Shot on Target | 44% | 45% |
Medium + Long Passes Completed per Game | 215 | 208 |
Medium + Long Pass Completion % | 81% | 80% |
Completed Crosses + Switches per Game | 21.4 | 21.0 |
Progressive Carries + Passes per Game | 64.6 | 57.3 |
Points Earned per Game | 2.06 | 1.67 |
For the most part it looks like the beginning of the 2025 season picked right up where the 2024 regular season ended (I intentionally excluded the 2024 playoffs from the data because playoff games tend to be played differently than regular-season games). There were some major changes in personnel from 2024 to 2025, but even with the changes in players, the style of play and the formation used by Orlando City remained the same, and most of the offensive stats are nearly exactly the same. Six games is a decent enough sample size to say that those stats from 2025 were not a fluke, and the offensive output that we saw in the second half of the 2024 season could be reasonably expected to continue at a similar pace.
But then it did not. Oh boy has it not. Looking at the same chart, but comparing the 2025 first six games to the 2025 most recent three matches gets an immediate “not hot” vote and is as ugly as a Bubba Sparxxx song.
Metric | 2025 First 6 | 2025 Last 3 |
---|---|---|
Goals per Game | 2.5 | 0.0 |
Shots on Target per Game | 5.5 | 3.0 |
Shots on Target % | 35% | 31% |
Goal Conversions per Shot on Target | 45% | 0% |
Medium + Long Passes Completed per Game | 208 | 171 |
Medium + Long Pass Completion % | 80% | 74% |
Completed Crosses + Switches per Game | 21.0 | 12.6 |
Progressive Carries + Passes per Game | 57.3 | 42.0 |
Points Earned per Game | 1.67 | 1.0 |
The sharp-eyed observer will note that red cards are not noted anywhere above, and in those last three games Orlando City played nearly 50 minutes with only 10 players. In both of the games when a red card (the ultimate sum of two yellow cards by the same player) was given, Orlando City was ahead in expected goals at the moment the red card was issued, and while those do not count for anything officially, they indicate who was getting shots off from more dangerous locations. I thought Orlando City seemed more likely to score and take all three points in both games up until the dismissal of a player. Instead, of course, the Lions went down a player and immediately had to pivot to a more defensive posture, and with one fewer player on the field, they could not play (or at least maintain) the same style as they had been.
In addition to playing far more conservatively, in both games Orlando City substituted on a defender for a key attacking player within four minutes of the red card, removing Marco Pašalić in the game against New York and Luis Muriel in the game against Montréal. This was effectively a double negative, and not in the way that turns two negatives into a positive. It was more like f(x) = -2x, a function with a slope of -2 and…let me stop right there. It was bad, and hurt the offense to remove a key playmaker and goal scorer.
Another major issue is that the midfield engine of César Araújo and Eduard Atuesta have played a combined 11 minutes in the last three games, and all 11 of those minutes were played by Atuesta in the game against New York and after the red card. Araújo’s absence has definitely been felt, but as he is more of a deep-lying player and defensive destroyer, the team has been able to adequately replace him, but Atuesta’s offensive talents have been sorely missed. Atuesta may not have many goal contributions, but he is second on the team in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (4.62) and first on the team in goal-creating actions per 90 minutes (1.20). That 1.20 is the highest in club history (fbref.com only has tracking back to 2018, so apologies to the legend Kaká) among players who played at least 500 minutes in a season, and it is nearly 50% higher than the player in second place in that stat, Mauricio Pereyra in 2020, when he averaged 0.82.
Might it be nice to be able to play a player who is creating a goal every 90 minutes? I think so. Joran Gerbet has played well, especially for a rookie, and specially especially (just go with it) for a rookie in the mentally and physically demanding role of a central midfielder. He has a ton of potential, but he is not yet as productive a player as Atuesta and when the Colombian playmaker returns the offense will get back a key cog that will help to create good shots, and in a game like soccer the difference between a goal and a miss is often a matter of inches, and a slightly better delivery on the pass can turn a shot into a shot on target and a shot on target into a goal.
Is it really as simple as just red cards and injuries, and that if Orlando City can keep its full complement of players on the field and get back some injured players, everything will go from not hot to hot again? Perhaps, but I think there is a style of play change that has also been causing some of the recent issues. I included rows on the charts above on the aggregation of completed crosses and switches (as in switches of the field) per game and medium and long passes completed per game, and from that chart you can see that the numbers are much lower in the last three games as compared to the beginning of this season and the final half of last season.
Those drops coincide with Rafael Santos playing only 59 minutes in the last three games, and with Alex Freeman not being able to get into the attack in the same way as he was in the season-opening games. There definitely is some overlap here with playing down a player and needing to keep defensive players back, but Santos’ offensive contributions (he is currently 20th in MLS in completed crosses + switches per 90 minutes), and even just the threat of him playing a long ball across the field to change the point of attack, have been missed by the Orlando City offense with him off the field. David Brekalo is an excellent defender, but his offensive contributions are more tied to his ability to win balls in the air, whereas Santos is among the league leaders in crosses and switches per 90 minutes, with Freeman one of his primary targets.
Brekalo playing left back certainly helped shore up a defense that had been leaking goals, and Santos was a major contributor to that with some poor defensive performances, but that tradeoff has removed a major threat to the Orlando City offense. Freeman’s reduction in offensive contributions has not helped, but I think the loss of Santos’ early crosses, long switches, and overlapping runs contributed more to the nearly 400-minute dry spell without a goal from open play. The Lions need him to find his form again, though he will not be able to do it against Atlanta, as he will be suspended.
Three games without a goal is unpleasant as a fan, but Orlando City battled in all three games and at least came away with a point. The defense is playing well, and despite many injuries, the Lions are still very much in the playoff hunt as the season approaches the one-third mark. There are legitimate reasons for the recent offensive swoon, and Araújo and Atuesta will likely be back shortly, and McGuire also may soon be able to start a game and offer a different offensive look. Ramiro Enrique heated up once spring turned to summer in 2024, and when all four of those players are back to full health, the team will once again have a deep roster full of players aggressively competing for minutes.
Óscar Pareja historically has used the first half of a season to find his preferred lineup for the stretch run of the season, and I believe this is another season when he will be playing the long game and seeing what he has at his disposal. The red cards and injuries provided short-term pain in terms of points dropped, but they will likely also provide long-term gain with the view into how the players play in different positions and combinations.
It is a long season, with two cup competitions still to start, in addition to 25 more regular-season games, and summer does not even start until June. I expect that a lot of the issues from the recent run of games will work themselves out with time. We just need to keep our cool and wait for the inevitable Orlando City late season hot streak.
Orlando City
Orlando City Striker Duncan McGuire Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
It’s the other shoulder this time, but Big Dunc is on the shelf for awhile again after undergoing surgery.

Orlando City announced today that Duncan McGuire has undergone arthroscopic surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder. The surgery was performed by Orlando City Chief Medical Officer Dr. Craig Mintzer of the Orlando Health Jewett Orthopedic Institute performed the surgery. Mintzer previously repaired the labrum and rotator cuff in McGuire’s right shoulder back in December for an injury he sustained in Orlando City’s playoff match against Charlotte FC Nov. 9 when he was pulled down by Djibril Diani.
The club’s press release said the 24-year-old striker’s return to play is expected “later this year.” The recovery given for his right shoulder surgery in late 2024 was listed as four to five months, but McGuire was able to come back and play much earlier than expected, appearing for the first time in 2025 in Orlando’s March 15 against the New York Red Bulls — at least a month before the earliest initial projection — however, this time there was no mention of damage to the rotator cuff.
Regardless, the Lions will be without the big target striker for a considerable amount of time.
McGuire had appeared in 12 matches during the regular season in 2025, starting three and scoring one goal and adding an assist. His goal came recently, serving as the game winner in Orlando’s 1-0 home victory over the Portland Timbers on May 24. He was recently listed as questionable on the club’s availability report ahead of the team’s most recent match against the Chicago Fire.
Orlando City drafted McGuire in the first round (No. 6 overall) in the 2023 MLS SuperDraft. After a breakout rookie campaign, in which the Omaha, NE native scored 14 goals, he was courted by several teams in Europe, signing with Blackburn Rovers, only to see the transfer rejected by the English Football League due to an administrative error by the EFL Championship club. After returning to Orlando, McGuire signed a new deal on Aug. 22 to remain a Lion. The new contract runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028. McGuire scored 10 goals and added three assists in 2024. For his Orlando City career, McGuire has appeared in 88 games (46 starts) across all competitions, scoring a total of 28 goals to go along with seven assists.
What It Means for Orlando City
McGuire appeared to be just finding his form, so this injury is unfortunate. The club didn’t put a timeline on McGuire’s recovery this time, but shaving a little off his 2024 recovery estimate, it’s likely that he’ll be out until at least some time in September.
Oscar Pareja has been favoring a 4-4-2 with Luis Muriel and Martin Ojeda up top in recent weeks, with Ramiro Enrique — who is also finding his form — typically spelling one of them when needed. Not having McGuire will affect Pareja’s late-game substitution pattern when Orlando is trailing, as he likes to put Enrique and McGuire both on the field when chasing the game. It also takes the team’s best target striker option out of the lineup when dealing with back lines with lots of height.
McGuire brings size and strength and an ability to occupy center backs that others on the roster can’t replicate. There are times when Enrique’s game is better suited to the opponent, but without McGuire there will be no ability to pivot. With Jack Lynn’s off-season retirement, that leaves the striker pickings mighty slim on the Orlando City bench. That might change Ricardo Moreira’s approach to the MLS Secondary Transfer Window.
Losing a scorer of McGuire’s caliber is always difficult, but this season it could be the difference between finishing high in the table and simply getting into the postseason in a strong Eastern Conference field.
Opinion
Orlando City Must Learn from May’s Mistakes
The Lions can learn some valuable lessons from the three losses they suffered in May.

Orlando City hadn’t quite achieved juggernaut status as the Major League Soccer season turned from April to May, but a 12-match unbeaten run in the league is nothing to sniff at, despite there being a healthy number of draws interspersed with the victories. Things turned sour as May drew to a close though, as the Lions lost three of their final four matches of the month and entered a two-week break with a whimper rather than a roar.
Losing is never fun, but in this case those three defeats don’t need to be entirely negative experiences, and there are plenty of lessons to be learned from those three bitter losses that will hold Orlando in good stead if it can implement the proper solutions.
More Squad Rotation
One of the biggest factors in Orlando’s rough finish to May was a lack of squad rotation. Oscar Pareja has always been a coach that likes to find his first-choice XI and stick to it almost religiously. He doesn’t normally tweak his lineups or tactics according to whatever opponent is on the slate, and very much values consistency. In periods of fixture congestion, that tendency can be to Orlando’s detriment, and that was very much the case against both Nashville SC and the Chicago Fire.
After beating Inter Miami 3-0 in an emotional rivalry match on May 18, Pareja made just one change for a U.S. Open Cup match against Nashville SC three days later. Ramiro Enrique slotted in for Luis Muriel up top, but every single other starter from the Miami game also got the nod midweek. With Nashville deploying a heavily rotated lineup mostly filled with backups, the gamble was a simple one: hope that OCSC’s A-team can open up a big first-half lead against Nashville’s B-squad before bringing mass changes in the second half to get guys some rest. Hindsight is, of course, 20/20, but the strategy backfired badly as the Lions lost 3-2. Orlando started well with Marco Pasalic’s 17th-minute strike, but the team faded badly afterwards and gave up a couple of very uncharacteristic goals to lose the game. Lapses in concentration and tired defending cost OCSC the game, and that isn’t something we can normally say about this team.
Then, after losing to Atlanta United 3-2 on May 28 due in no small part to Cesar Araujo’s red card, Pareja made two changes for a match against the Chicago Fire on May 31, with Muriel coming in for Enrique, and the other change being a forced one, as Eduard Atuesta replaced the suspended Araujo. Those starters looked noticeably gassed during the resulting 3-1 loss, and the fatigue manifested itself by players missing chances that would normally be converted or in sloppy, mistake-ridden defending.
May was a packed month with a whopping nine matches in 31 days, and most months won’t be that busy. August is set to be the busiest remaining period of the year with six games in 31 days, although that number could rise higher if the Lions make a run in Leagues Cup. The bottom line is that guys are going to need more rest as the season goes on. If the coaching staff doesn’t trust some of the guys currently available as backups, then they need to dip into the transfer market in one way or another and get some players that they do trust, because if the starting XI gets run ragged during busy periods it’s going to cost Orlando, plain and simple.
Cool Heads Usually Prevail
Orlando City has received three red cards on the season, which is tied for the second-most in the league. Unsurprisingly, the Lions are winless in games in which they’ve had a man sent off, with draws against the New York Red Bulls and CF Montreal and a loss to Atlanta United. The results against the Red Bulls and Atlanta were particularly difficult to swallow, as before going down to 10 men, Orlando had looked on track to get three points in each game.
Araujo’s red card against Atlanta was especially frustrating, as he allowed Mateusz Klich to get under his skin, grabbed him by the throat, and reduced his team to 10 men when OCSC was nursing a 2-1 lead on the road. It was completely unnecessary and was also the sort of thing that Orlando had looked to put in the rearview mirror after keeping its collective composure and not picking up any bookings in the 3-0 road win against Miami, while the Herons picked up four and looked noticeably rattled in the process.
It should go without saying, but the Lions can’t afford to get key players sent off. Six extra points could make a big difference in the standings at the end of the year, and that number could rise even higher if OCSC can’t put its disciplinary issues to rest once and for all.
Focus for the Full 90
There were moments in each of Orlando’s three May losses that the team committed bad defensive lapses or mistakes. Whether it was not playing to the whistle on Nashville’s third goal, Atuesta’s bad turnover against Atlanta, or the Lions collectively allowing Chicago to stroll through midfield to score a third goal, there were plenty of examples of bad breakdowns that were largely absent during the team’s unbeaten run. Can some of that be attributed to tired minds and tired legs? Maybe so — it’s a lot harder to play crisp and focused when the minutes have piled up. Regardless, its something that can’t continue to happen going forward. It’s possible that having more rotation in the squad will help that a lot, but it’s also on the players on the field to stay as mentally sharp as they can when they’re out on the pitch.
Clearly, a recurring theme here is that fresh legs and balanced squad rotation are top of my list of things I want to see change. I’m all for riding the hot hands, but tired legs make for tired minds, and tired minds make mistakes and are easier to rile up. Whether reinforcements come from the bench or an outside source, using more bodies will go a long way towards solving some of the issues that we saw in May’s three losses. All we can do now is wait and see what happens once the team returns from its break. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 6/6/25
Alex Freeman called up for Concacaf Gold Cup, Orlando Pride get ready for the Houston Dash, Orlando City B plays tonight, and more.

Happy Friday! I’ll be spending this weekend celebrating my birthday by beating my friends at mini golf with no mercy but still hope to catch some soccer over the next few days. I’ve also been on a bit of a movie kick and plan on catching Wes Anderson’s new flick at some point soon. But for now, let’s dive into today’s links!
Alex Freeman Called Up For Gold Cup
Orlando City defender Alex Freeman was officially called up by the United States Men’s National Team for the Concacaf Gold Cup this summer. He’s the only Lion who will be at the tournament and is one of seven uncapped USMNT players on the roster. The 20-year-old could receive more playing time than expected, as right back Sergino Dest is not on the roster so that he can recover over the summer. Left back John Tolkin was added to replace Dest, so Freeman has a real shot at making a claim for the position this month. The U.S. will take on Turkey Saturday in the first of two friendlies before its first Gold Cup match against Trinidad & Tobago on June 15.
Orlando Pride Prepares to Host the Houston Dash
With the international break for women’s soccer over, the Orlando Pride return to action Saturday with a home game against the Houston Dash. It should be a great opportunity for the Pride to ease back into the swing of things against a Dash team that’s only scored 10 goals this season. Pride midfielder Ally Lemos spoke on the benefit of being able to rest heading into this match while maintaining a winning mindset from a 3-1 victory on May 23.
Anna Moorhouse Called Up For 2025 Euros
Orlando Pride goalkeeper Anna Moorhouse was named to England’s final roster for the 2025 UEFA European Women’s Championship. She’s one of three goalkeepers on the squad following Mary Earp’s surprise retirement from international soccer, and she will likely compete with fellow uncapped player Khiara Keating for the backup position behind Hannah Hampton. Moorhouse has started in every game for the Pride this season and was an NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year finalist for her record-breaking season last year. England’s Euro run will begin July 5 against France before other group matches against the Netherlands and Wales.
Orlando City B Takes On Huntsville City FC
The Young Lions are riding high after a 2-1 win over Chattanooga FC and will take that momentum into tonight’s road match against Huntsville City FC. Midfielder Noah Levis scored his first career goal in that home win, with Justin Hylton providing the assist in his OCB debut. Orlando’s offense has been hot and cold this season but has a variety of attacking talent that can create chances in different ways. The Young Lions have only won once on the road, but a win tonight would lift them to third in the Eastern Conference.
Free Kicks
- FIFA Club World Cup action is coming to the City Beautiful this month and Orlando City legend Kaká spoke on how it’s nice for Orlando to host games.
- San Diego Wave Head Coach Jonas Eidevall was named NWSL Coach of the Month. The Wave were undefeated in May, winning three of their four matches to climb to second in the league standings.
- The NWSL will allow intraleague loans for all teams, with the players needing to consent to the move in order for it to happen. Denver and Boston’s expansion teams will have access to potentially over $1 million in Allocation Money starting on July 1 to build their rosters before the 2026 season.
- Atletico Madrid is reportedly close to signing American midfielder Johnny Cardoso from Real Betis.
- South Korea, Uzbekistan, and Jordan all qualified for the 2026 World Cup, while China was eliminated from contention. Australia beat Japan 1-0 and will qualify so long as it doesn’t lose heavily to Saudi Arabia on June 10.
- Spain beat France 5-4 in a wild game to reach the UEFA Nations League final against Portugal on Sunday. Lamine Yamal continues to take the world by storm, but a late rally by France nearly completed a comeback.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
-
Orlando Pride2 weeks ago
Orlando Pride vs. Utah Royals: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Orlando City2 weeks ago
Orlando City vs. Portland Timbers: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Lion Links1 week ago
Lion Links: 5/30/25
-
Orlando City2 weeks ago
Orlando City vs. Portland Timbers: Final Score 1-0 as Lions Tie Club-Record 12-Game Unbeaten Streak
-
Orlando City1 week ago
Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Final Score 3-2 as Late Araujo Red Card Turns Orlando Lead into a Loss
-
Orlando City1 week ago
Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Orlando Pride1 week ago
Orlando Pride Sign Forward Simone Jackson Through 2028
-
Orlando Pride2 weeks ago
Orlando Pride vs. Utah Royals: Final Score 3-1 as Pride Win Behind Barbra Banda Hat Trick