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Converting More Big Chances Could Propel Orlando City’s Season Into An Epic Universe

An analysis of Orlando City’s conversion rate on big chances and an evaluation of the impact of a small improvement .

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

If you could all hop in the Wayback Machine with me, I would like to take you all the way back to Sunday, May 18, 2025. It was a glorious day, punctuated by a 3-0 victory over Orlando City’s southern rivals Inter Miami. The Five Takeaways article about that game was pretty awesome too, and in that article, the dashingly handsome and spellbindingly brilliant author noted that Orlando City “could, and probably should, have scored five or even six goals” against Miami.

You probably surmised that the author of that Five Takeaways article was me, and I appreciate your immediate recognition of my handsomeness and brilliance. I am also pretty confident that you believe that Orlando City should have scored more than three goals as well, and I am here to tell you that the eye test and the tracking data agree. The wonderful site fotmob.com tracks a statistic coded by analysts from Opta called “big chances,” which they define on their frequently asked questions page as:

A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.

The key words in their definition are “reasonably be expected,” and so, while the word ‘expected’ is in this definition, do not confuse “reasonably be expected” with “expected goals” (xG). I think of expected goals more like a geography problem, kind of like the game show Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego? Was that an excuse just to mention that one of my best friends was a contestant on that show in 1994 and won a trip to Orlando? A gentleman never tells.

Back to the geography problem, expected goals is really just a mapping exercise, mapping conversion percentages to locations all over a soccer field and then summing up all the shots taken from those locations in a game. By that measure, fbref.com had Orlando City with an xG of 2.9 against Miami, extremely close to the actual output of three goals. Earlier in the season, however, the xG tracking was 1.6 against Toronto…but the Lions scored four goals.

There are countless examples of the real results not matching the xG. While I value xG and just finished reading a great book called How To Win The Premier League: The Inside Story of Football (soccer)’s Data Revolution, which details the history of expected goals and how the author — the former director of research at Liverpool — helped build the first analytics department at a Premier League club using xG as a foundational measurement tool, I still think xG needs to be used alongside other measures and cannot stand alone by itself.

One of the main reasons I think it needs to be combined with other data is that xG requires a shot to be taken, and sometimes that does not happen. Consider Orlando City’s third goal against Miami, if Duncan McGuire’s cross had gone untouched then the xG on that play would have gone from 0.56 to 0.0, because without a shot attempt there is no shot location, and no map coordinates to use to find the xG for that area of the field.

This takes us back to that definition of big chances, which notably does not include a requirement for a shot to be taken. Duncan McGuire’s pass clearly created a chance to score, and that pass, combined with the perfectly timed run from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, meant that Orlando City had a great opportunity to score from a location where anyone with eyes would think that “a player should reasonably be expected to score.” If Thórhallsson had whiffed, then the xG would have said no sir, you get 0.0 xG, even though everyone who watched that pass would have said, “Oh my, he should have scored that, what a big chance missed.”

Note: Thórhallsson did not miss, and it was glorious.

According to Opta’s tracking, Orlando City had eight big chances in the game against Miami. Which sounds closer to your memory of that match: Orlando City’s xG was 2.9 or Orlando City created eight big chances to score? I think most people probably think of the latter and remember the breakaways and the close-range opportunities and how it seemed like Orlando City had so many clear chances to score.

Looking at the 2025 season to date, the Lions are tied for the MLS lead with 50 big chances thus far, and just as against Miami, you can see that their conversion rate on those big chances has not been great:

ClubBig ChancesBig Chances ConvertedConversion Rate
San Jose502040%
Orlando City501428%
Chicago461839%
Columbus461430%
Nashville411229%
Vancouver402153%
LAFC391436%
Miami392051%
Minnesota391436%
Portland371643%
MLS Average*3412.437%
  • *The MLS Average is the average of every team except Orlando City

If you were wondering, yes, 28% is among the league’s worst conversion rates on big chances. It is tied for second worst, ahead of only Austin, which must be driving its fans up the wall with a 19% conversion rate on 31 big chances. Maybe the release of Wicked at the end of 2024 put the kibosh on good things happening to those in green for a while. Vancouver, on the other hand, is out there Burning Blue like Mariah the Scientist (contemporary pop song alert), converting a league-leading 53% of its big chances.

For Orlando City, however, 28% feels right. It feels terrible, but it also feels right. How many times did it seem like it would be harder not to score than to score, but then the Lions went ahead and did not score? Luis Muriel leads the team with 12 big chances missed (second most in MLS), and while it takes an extreme amount of skill and work to get into position to miss chances, the reality is that 12 times independent analysts thought Muriel should reasonably have been expected to score and he did not.

Anytime there is a lower-than-average performance there is always a question of whether that performance is reality or if there is a regression to the mean coming. In this case, regression to the mean would actually be positive, or something more akin to ascension to the mean. If Orlando City performs at a conversion rate similar to that of the rest of the league, the Lions will score about one additional goal per every 10 big chances, or an additional five goals over their next 50 big chances generated.

Considering that the Lions generated those 50 big chances in 14 games, it is easy math to double that and put Orlando City at 100 big chances after 28 games at the current pace. That extra five goals, were it to happen and the team continued to similarly convert its “small chances,” would net the team 32 goals in the next 14 games, and take the team to 59 after 28 games, with six more games still to play in the season.

Readers of UpRoar, the weekly newsletter for The Mane Land’s Buy Me a Coffee subscribers, which you can subscribe to by clicking this link, will know that Orlando City’s offense is already on pace to break the club’s MLS goal-scoring record, which is…wait for it…59 goals, and so, if the Lions could start converting more of their big chances, then the 2025 team could not only break that record but smash it — like, epically smash it like the Super Smash Brothers.

And speaking of…what better way to celebrate today’s official opening of Epic Universe but to imagine Óscar Pareja and the coaching staff out there training their goal-scoring dragons and super Marco and Luis-gi to tame the dark world of opposition defenses with their Harry Potter-esque offensive wizardry?

That would be epic, and if you are asking me what the coaching staff should do, that is what I pick.

Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/13/26

Pride and OCB win, Maxime Crepeau to compete in MLS All-Star Skills Challenge, Latest MLS transfer roundup, and more.

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Image of Marta blasting a goal from long range against Kansas City.
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I’ve been very busy at work, but I look forward to watching the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals and final this week. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Pride Shut Out Kansas City Current at Home

The Orlando Pride defeated the Kansas City Current 3-0 at Inter&Co Stadium Friday night, bouncing back from a tough outing at Angel City the previous week. After a scoreless first half, Marta scored the opener from long distance to give Orlando the lead. Hannah Anderson and Barbra Banda added a goal apiece as the Pride have won three out of their last four league matches. Goalkeeper Anna Moorhouse earned a clean sheet in her 100th appearance for the club. Orlando remains eighth in the NWSL table with 20 points. The Pride will be back in action at home Wednesday, taking on Boston Legacy at Inter&Co Stadium.

OCB Wins at FC Cincinnati 2

Orlando City B beat FC Cincinnati 2 by a 2-1 scoreline at NKU Soccer Stadium in Highland Heights, KY on Sunday. Issah Haruna’s goal gave the Young Lions the lead in the first half. In the second half, Cincinnati leveled the match, but Matthew Belgodere scored the winner on the road. That result pulls the Young Lions into third in the MLS NEXT Pro Eastern Conference standings with 33 points, just one point off leaders Chattanooga FC. OCB will be away for another road test Saturday against Chattanooga FC at Finley Stadium.

Orlando City Reportedly Submits Transfer Offer for Alex Moreno

Orlando City has reportedly submitted a transfer offer to sign Girona defender Alex Moreno. No agreement has been reached between the two sides, and conversations remain ongoing, according to reports. Moreno made 31 appearances for Girona last season in La Liga and recorded three assists. The 33-year-old left back remains under contract with Girona through 2027, but the club was relegated from La Liga to La Liga 2 last season. Several European clubs have also expressed interest in signing Moreno, including La Liga sides Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano.

Crepeau to Compete in MLS All-Star Skills Challenge

Orlando City goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau will compete in the 2026 MLS All-Star Skills Challenge at Truist Field in Charlotte on July 28, the club announced Friday. The competition will feature top players from Major League Soccer and Liga MX competing to test their soccer skills on the pitch. Five skills challenge competitions are featured, including the All-Star Goalie Wars, All-Star Crossbar Challenge, and the MLS vs. Liga MX Relay Challenge. Each competition will crown its own champion this year, switching from the traditional MLS-versus-opponent format used in previous years.

Latest MLS Transfer Roundup

According to Tom Bogert of The Athletic, Sporting Kansas City has emerged as a potential option to sign former Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah.

🚨🇪🇬 Sources: Sporting KC has emerged as top MLS suitor for Liverpool legend Mo Salah.Still a longshot of course, as sources believe he prefers Europe + Saudi very interested, but SKC the top MLS option now.More here with @paultenorio.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/athletic/743…

Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2026-07-10T19:35:14.046Z

D.C. United has reportedly acquired forward Nathan Ordaz from LAFC.

🇸🇻 BREAKING: D.C. United to acquire El Salvador international forward Nathan Ordaz from LAFC, per sources.Ordaz, 22, is a product of LAFC's academy. Made 98 first team apps. 9g/4a in 2,163 mins over last two years.Gets chance to earn more mins at D.C.

Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2026-07-12T13:55:49.973Z

Meanwhile, the Seattle Sounders have reportedly traded defender Cody Baker to the New England Revolution.

Free Kicks

  • Former Lion Silvester van der Water has signed with Cambodian Premier League side Preah Khan Reach Svay Rieng FC.
  • Ted Lasso actor Cristo Fernandez, who plays Dani Rojas in the show, made his professional debut for USL Championship side El Paso Locomotive over the weekend.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

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Orlando City

Orlando City Trades Duncan McGuire to Houston Dynamo

The Lions send the 2023 first-round pick to Houston for a pile of Garberbucks.

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Image of Duncan McGuire playing the ball against New York City FC.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando no longer runs on Duncan as Orlando City has traded 2023 first-round draft pick Duncan McGuire to the Houston Dynamo. The big striker with the even bigger smile and the back flips joins the Dynamo, with the Lions receiving $600,000 in 2026 General Allocation Money (GAM), $400,000 in 2027 GAM, and $250,000 in 2027-2028 GAM. The return could also include up to $1.15 million in GAM add-ons if certain performance metrics are met. OCSC will retain a percentage of any sell-on by Houston.

It became clear that something was up with McGuire, as he did not dress for Orlando City’s friendly against Tampa Bay on Wednesday.

“Duncan has meant a great deal to this club since the day he arrived in Orlando,” Orlando City General Manager and Sporting Director Ricardo Moreira said in a club press release. “His resilience, determination, and willingness to fight through challenges both on and off the field have earned the respect of everyone throughout our organization. He has played a major role in our success over the last several years, and when the opportunity arose, we wanted to ensure it was a move that made sense for both Duncan and the club. We’re grateful for everything he has given to Orlando City and wish him and his family nothing but success in this next chapter.”

The Lions selected McGuire out of Creighton with the No. 6 overall selection in the first round of the 2023 MLS SuperDraft. Although he was not a Generation Adidas player, the striker had signed a pre-draft contract with the league, meaning Orlando City didn’t need to spend time agreeing to a contract. The 6-foot-1 forward quickly became a starter for the Lions during his rookie year, and put together back-to-back, double-digit goal-scoring seasons in his first two professional seasons. Now in his fourth pro year, McGuire has appeared in 85 MLS matches (45 starts) for the Lions, scoring 29 goals and adding eight assists. In all competitions, McGuire has contributed 32 goals and nine assists in 109 appearances (55 starts).

Once one of the most promising up-and-coming American strikers in any league after his 24 goals across his first two MLS campaign, Mcguire underwent surgery on both shoulders in separate procedures after the 2024 MLS Cup playoffs, which have restricted his availability, affected his form, and have limited him to just five goals and three assists in his last 29 matches. He has sat behind various other strikers starting in his place the last couple of seasons, including Ramiro Enrique, Luis Muriel, and Justin Ellis.

After his breakout rookie campaign, in which the Omaha, NE native scored 14 goals, he was courted by several teams in Europe. He signed with Blackburn Rovers in 2024, only to see the transfer rejected by the English Football League due to an administrative error by the EFL Championship club. Upon his return, the Creighton product signed his most recent contract on Aug. 22, 2024, locking him down through 2027 with a club option for 2028. That deal now belongs to the Dynamo.

McGuire’s hot start to his professional career had him climbing the U.S. Men’s National Team player pool. Gregg Berhalter called him up to the USMNT for the first time in January 2024 ahead of the team’s friendly against Slovenia. The striker made his first USMNT appearance in that match, coming off the bench to replace Brian White on Jan. 20, 2024, in a 1-0 loss. That is his only cap to date, although he had previously appeared nine times and scored one goal for the U.S. U-23 side.

The 2022 Hermann Trophy winner spent three seasons at Creighton, where he appeared in 24 games (23 starts) in his final (junior) season, logging 1,591 college minutes. McGuire scored 23 goals and added three assists in 2022.

What It Means for Orlando City

It makes sense to deal a striker making a base salary of $600,000 ($921,000 in total guaranteed compensation) if he can’t crack the starting lineup. While some of that comes down to coaching decisions and other players emerging, it didn’t help McGuire that he struggled to regain the consistent form he showed in his first two years in Orlando. In the end, this is a bit of a blow financially to the club, as the initial agreement with Blackburn was for a reported $4 million. He now departs for considerably less money, but his value understandably dropped with his production and the two shoulder surgeries.

McGuire is still just 25 years old, and sitting out after two surgeries means he has fewer miles on his legs than many players his age. He could still regain the form that saw him score 14 times in 2023 and 10 more times in 2024 and had the USMNT and European clubs paying attention. Orlando City will hope that he returns to form, because that will influence how much GAM the club eventually receives for this transaction.

A fan favorite since his arrival, McGuire will be missed, and while the Lions could perhaps have benefitted from getting a player back in return to bolster an area of need, the influx of GAM can help accomplish the same goal.

McGuire’s departure appears to solidify Justin Ellis’ position on the first team, although his play in the first half of the season likely already did that. It may also open up more minutes for Tiago. But the trade also tells us that unless a new striker is brought in, the Lions will play without a traditional target striker for the time being, allowing players who have typically either played as wingers, attacking midfielders, or false nines to have the freedom to fluidly change positions and force defenders out of their comfort zones when it comes to coverage. Martin Ojeda, Antoine Griezmann, Ellis, Ivan Angulo, Marco Pasalic, and the team’s fullbacks will be harder to keep tabs on under such a system.

Whether it will work or if it will further stress the team’s shoddy transition defense (or both) remains to be seen.

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Flashback Friday: July 10, 2022 vs. Inter Miami

Let’s rewind to a match against the Herons that featured the unlikeliest of heroes.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

With both the United States Men’s National Team and Colombia suffering World Cup exits that were both agonizing in their own right, this summer’s tournament has lost a little luster for me. Don’t get it twisted, I’m still looking forward to the rest of the games, but I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t going to be a little bittersweet.

Fortunately, Orlando City will be back in action before we know it, and in the meantime we can continue our practice of looking back on Lions matches from years gone by. Last week we relived a 4-0 win over Toronto FC from July 4, 2023. This week we go a little farther into the past to July 10, 2022, and a visit from Inter Miami.

Going into the match with the Herons, OCSC was badly in need of a result. The Lions were in the midst of a summer slump and had won just one of eight matches since squeaking by Toronto FC 1-0 back on May 14. To try to turn things around, Oscar Pareja sent out a lineup of Pedro Gallese in goal; a back line of Kyle Smith, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, and Ruan; Junior Urso and Cesar Araujo in the double pivot; Benji Michel, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres in attacking midfield; and Ercan Kara up top.

Orlando’s effort to try to pick up a win had to wait a little longer than originally planned, as kickoff was postponed by close to two and a half hours due to lightning in the area. Once the game eventually started, both Orlando City’s fans and players probably wished it had been delayed a little longer. The Lions came out of the starting blocks slow and were guilty of a number of bad passes and miscommunication that made it difficult to get going offensively.

The bad start nearly cost the home side early, as Pereyra played a bad back pass in the seventh minute that was snagged by Indiana Vasilev, who promptly broke toward goal. Fortunately, his shot smashed into Gallese’s face and went wide of the net to spare Mauricio’s blushes. Speaking of the Uruguayan, Miami seemed to have keyed on him as a player to stop at all costs, because whenever the Lions started to get a rhythm in the final third, the Herons promptly fouled him to break up the flow of things.

It took half an hour for the first decent chances to finally surface for Orlando City. When those opportunities arrived, it was in the form of Urso taking a pop from outside the box that got blocked on the way through, and Michel nearly getting on the end of a training ground corner kick routine, only to be let down by a bad first touch.

That was mostly everything of note in a largely quiet first half. Miami had the more dangerous chances, but there wasn’t much to separate the teams in the end. Miami had a slim lead in possession (50.6%-49.4%), and also had more shots (6-3), shots on target (1-0), and corners (3-2). Orlando City was a shade more accurate in its passing (84.5%-83.6%).

Once the second half started, Miami very nearly got an early goal once again, but Robert Taylor didn’t get good contact on a header attempt and the ball went out harmlessly for a goal kick. Vassilev had a much more dangerous effort in the 49th minute, but he put his shot over the bar and wasted a nice passage of play from the visitors.

Orlando carved out an excellent chance of its own nine minutes later. Ruan played a clever cutback for Michel, but like Taylor, he didn’t get good contact on his shot and sent it tamely right to goalkeeper Drake Callender. Torres and Urso sent shots wide and high shortly afterward, before Miami really should have scored from a 72nd-minute corner kick. Aime Mabika found himself all alone in front of goal after the initial ball was played short, but he put his header wide right.

Tesho Akindele was one of the substitutes brought on, and he flashed his fresh legs by getting on a couple of chances as the game wound towards the 90th minute. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to convert either one, and things looked sure to end in a scoreless draw. Enter an extremely unlikely hero: Jake Mulraney.

In the second of four minutes of stoppage time, the winger sent a hopeful cross into the box with just two men in purple to aim for. The ball had relatively little chance of reaching Akindele, who was bracketed by two defenders, but Damion Lowe tried to clear it and instead sliced it off the underside of the crossbar and into the Miami net making it 1-0 to the good guys.

Unsurprisingly, given the state of the game up to that point, neither team managed to muster any real chances after that, and Orlando narrowly came away with three much-needed points.

OCSC ended the game with more possession (54.7%-45.3%) and better passing accuracy (96.6%-82.9%), while Miami took more shots (10-8) and won more corners (6-2). Both sides put just one shot on target, making the final score somewhat unsurprising.

Marcus Mitchell was at the helm for Player Grades in this game, and he gave the outstanding Cesar Araujo the Man of the Match award, with a grade of 7.5 out of 10. The midfielder racked up eight tackles, drew nine fouls, and played a key pass while snuffing out a lot of Miami’s danger before it could truly develop.

Those three points didn’t exactly galvanize the Lions in the short term, as they won just one of their next six games in all competitions, not counting a friendly loss to Arsenal. Fortunately, better times lay ahead in the U.S. Open Cup.


That’ll do it for this week’s edition of Flashback Friday. We’ve only got one more of these before Orlando City returns to action on July 22, so enjoy the reminiscing while you can. Vamos Orlando!

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