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Converting More Big Chances Could Propel Orlando City’s Season Into An Epic Universe

An analysis of Orlando City’s conversion rate on big chances and an evaluation of the impact of a small improvement .

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

If you could all hop in the Wayback Machine with me, I would like to take you all the way back to Sunday, May 18, 2025. It was a glorious day, punctuated by a 3-0 victory over Orlando City’s southern rivals Inter Miami. The Five Takeaways article about that game was pretty awesome too, and in that article, the dashingly handsome and spellbindingly brilliant author noted that Orlando City “could, and probably should, have scored five or even six goals” against Miami.

You probably surmised that the author of that Five Takeaways article was me, and I appreciate your immediate recognition of my handsomeness and brilliance. I am also pretty confident that you believe that Orlando City should have scored more than three goals as well, and I am here to tell you that the eye test and the tracking data agree. The wonderful site fotmob.com tracks a statistic coded by analysts from Opta called “big chances,” which they define on their frequently asked questions page as:

A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.

The key words in their definition are “reasonably be expected,” and so, while the word ‘expected’ is in this definition, do not confuse “reasonably be expected” with “expected goals” (xG). I think of expected goals more like a geography problem, kind of like the game show Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego? Was that an excuse just to mention that one of my best friends was a contestant on that show in 1994 and won a trip to Orlando? A gentleman never tells.

Back to the geography problem, expected goals is really just a mapping exercise, mapping conversion percentages to locations all over a soccer field and then summing up all the shots taken from those locations in a game. By that measure, fbref.com had Orlando City with an xG of 2.9 against Miami, extremely close to the actual output of three goals. Earlier in the season, however, the xG tracking was 1.6 against Toronto…but the Lions scored four goals.

There are countless examples of the real results not matching the xG. While I value xG and just finished reading a great book called How To Win The Premier League: The Inside Story of Football (soccer)’s Data Revolution, which details the history of expected goals and how the author — the former director of research at Liverpool — helped build the first analytics department at a Premier League club using xG as a foundational measurement tool, I still think xG needs to be used alongside other measures and cannot stand alone by itself.

One of the main reasons I think it needs to be combined with other data is that xG requires a shot to be taken, and sometimes that does not happen. Consider Orlando City’s third goal against Miami, if Duncan McGuire’s cross had gone untouched then the xG on that play would have gone from 0.56 to 0.0, because without a shot attempt there is no shot location, and no map coordinates to use to find the xG for that area of the field.

This takes us back to that definition of big chances, which notably does not include a requirement for a shot to be taken. Duncan McGuire’s pass clearly created a chance to score, and that pass, combined with the perfectly timed run from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, meant that Orlando City had a great opportunity to score from a location where anyone with eyes would think that “a player should reasonably be expected to score.” If Thórhallsson had whiffed, then the xG would have said no sir, you get 0.0 xG, even though everyone who watched that pass would have said, “Oh my, he should have scored that, what a big chance missed.”

Note: Thórhallsson did not miss, and it was glorious.

According to Opta’s tracking, Orlando City had eight big chances in the game against Miami. Which sounds closer to your memory of that match: Orlando City’s xG was 2.9 or Orlando City created eight big chances to score? I think most people probably think of the latter and remember the breakaways and the close-range opportunities and how it seemed like Orlando City had so many clear chances to score.

Looking at the 2025 season to date, the Lions are tied for the MLS lead with 50 big chances thus far, and just as against Miami, you can see that their conversion rate on those big chances has not been great:

ClubBig ChancesBig Chances ConvertedConversion Rate
San Jose502040%
Orlando City501428%
Chicago461839%
Columbus461430%
Nashville411229%
Vancouver402153%
LAFC391436%
Miami392051%
Minnesota391436%
Portland371643%
MLS Average*3412.437%
  • *The MLS Average is the average of every team except Orlando City

If you were wondering, yes, 28% is among the league’s worst conversion rates on big chances. It is tied for second worst, ahead of only Austin, which must be driving its fans up the wall with a 19% conversion rate on 31 big chances. Maybe the release of Wicked at the end of 2024 put the kibosh on good things happening to those in green for a while. Vancouver, on the other hand, is out there Burning Blue like Mariah the Scientist (contemporary pop song alert), converting a league-leading 53% of its big chances.

For Orlando City, however, 28% feels right. It feels terrible, but it also feels right. How many times did it seem like it would be harder not to score than to score, but then the Lions went ahead and did not score? Luis Muriel leads the team with 12 big chances missed (second most in MLS), and while it takes an extreme amount of skill and work to get into position to miss chances, the reality is that 12 times independent analysts thought Muriel should reasonably have been expected to score and he did not.

Anytime there is a lower-than-average performance there is always a question of whether that performance is reality or if there is a regression to the mean coming. In this case, regression to the mean would actually be positive, or something more akin to ascension to the mean. If Orlando City performs at a conversion rate similar to that of the rest of the league, the Lions will score about one additional goal per every 10 big chances, or an additional five goals over their next 50 big chances generated.

Considering that the Lions generated those 50 big chances in 14 games, it is easy math to double that and put Orlando City at 100 big chances after 28 games at the current pace. That extra five goals, were it to happen and the team continued to similarly convert its “small chances,” would net the team 32 goals in the next 14 games, and take the team to 59 after 28 games, with six more games still to play in the season.

Readers of UpRoar, the weekly newsletter for The Mane Land’s Buy Me a Coffee subscribers, which you can subscribe to by clicking this link, will know that Orlando City’s offense is already on pace to break the club’s MLS goal-scoring record, which is…wait for it…59 goals, and so, if the Lions could start converting more of their big chances, then the 2025 team could not only break that record but smash it — like, epically smash it like the Super Smash Brothers.

And speaking of…what better way to celebrate today’s official opening of Epic Universe but to imagine Óscar Pareja and the coaching staff out there training their goal-scoring dragons and super Marco and Luis-gi to tame the dark world of opposition defenses with their Harry Potter-esque offensive wizardry?

That would be epic, and if you are asking me what the coaching staff should do, that is what I pick.

Orlando City

2025 Orlando City Season in Review: Marco Pasalic

The Croatian international had big shoes to fill at right wing but he provided offense to offset the off-season loss of Facundo Torres.

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Image of Marco Pasalic saluting the fans.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City signed winger Marco Pasalic to a Designated Player contract on Feb. 5, just weeks ahead of the 2025 season. The Lions needed to try to replace the considerable production of their all-time leading scorer, Facundo Torres, who transferred to Brazilian side Palmeiras in the off-season. The 25-year-old Uruguayan had not only been a fan favorite, but he’d been the club’s most dangerous attacking threat.

It was difficult to lose a young player to a club that wasn’t in one of the world’s big four leagues, but Luiz Muzzi and Ricardo Moreira did well to locate his replacement in Croatia. Pasalic hit the ground running, scoring a brace in the first match of the season and making an instant impact. Throughout his first season in Orlando, Pasalic did everything in his power to ease the sting Orlando City fans were experiencing after losing Torres to Palmeiras.

Let’s look back to see how the Croatian international performed during his first season in the City Beautiful.

Statistical Breakdown

Pasalic played in all four competitions in which the Lions took part in 2025 — MLS regular season, MLS playoffs, U.S. Open Cup, and Leagues Cup.

The winger showed good durability, appearing in 33 of Orlando City’s 34 regular-season matches, starting 32 and playing 2,593 minutes, which placed him fifth on the club behind only goalkeeper Pedro Gallese, forward Martin Ojeda, and the starting center back duo of Rodrigo Schlegel and Robin Jansson. He scored 12 goals — second on the team only to Ojeda’s 16 — and added five assists (fifth most on the club). Pasalic put 41 of his 103 shots on target, surprisingly attempting only one headed shot all season, with 93 shots taken with his “weapon” of a left foot and eight shots with his right. The Croatian connected on 80% of his passes with 44 key passes, eight successful crosses, and 56 accurate long balls. Pasalic recorded 25 tackles, 15 interceptions, and 22 clearances on the defensive end, but did not block a shot. He committed 20 fouls, drew 19 on the competition, and was shown three yellow cards.

In Orlando City’s lone playoff game, Pasalic started and played 69 minutes without a goal contribution, putting his only shot attempt on target. It wasn’t a great passing night for Pasalic, who only connected on 75% of his 16 attempts, although he created two chances with key passes and was accurate on two of his three long balls. He was, however, unsuccessful at finding the target on any of his four crosses. He contributed a tackle and a clearance on the defensive end, did not commit a foul, drew one foul on the opposition, and was not booked.

In the U.S. Open Cup, Pasalic made one appearance — a start on May 21 against Nashville — and played all 90 minutes, scoring the opening goal of the game in the 17th minute. It was a screamer.

Pasalic also set up Ramiro Enrique’s goal to add an assist to go with his goal. He put one of his three shots on target in the match and his assist was one of his three key passes in the game. He missed the mark on both of his crosses but completed both of his long balls en route to a 91% passing rate on 33 attempts. Defensively, Pasalic registered just two ball recoveries but no other stats. He did not commit a foul, but he drew one on Nashville, and he was not booked.

In Leagues Cup play, Pasalic appeared in all six of Orlando City’s matches in 2025, starting five, and playing 420 minutes and contributing two goals but no assists. He put seven of his 14 shots on target and completed 79.6% of his 147 passes including three key passes. His two crosses were both unsuccessful, but he connected on 15 of his 18 long balls (83.3%). Defensively, Pasalic contributed three tackles and nine clearances but no interceptions or blocks. He committed two fouls and drew three on his opponents, and he was not booked in the competition.

Best Game

Pasalic had several great games throughout his first season in Orlando, with his brace in the opener, a strong overall performance in the aforementioned U.S. Open Cup match, and a great night with a goal and an assist against Atlanta United in Orlando’s 3-0 home win on April 26. But his best overall match probably occurred when the Lions beat St. Louis City SC 4-2 on June 25. Pasalic notched a brace to help Orlando City get the win and was selected our Man of the Match with a season-high match rating of 8.5 out of 10.

The Croatian didn’t get the scoring party started, but he did double the lead to 2-0 just two minutes after Ramiro Enrique’s opening goal. Pasalic brought the ball forward down the middle of the pitch with speed. He made a sick move to lose Akil Watts and created space for himself to fire a shot from outside the box that tucked just inside the right post beyond the diving save attempt by Roman Burki in the ninth minute.

Despite the dream start, St. Louis City cut what had been a 3-0 lead to just a one-goal advantage with two goals in the final minutes of the first half, giving the Lions plenty to do on the road in the second half. The game remained 3-2 until the 82nd minute, when Eduard Atuesta brought the ball forward in transition. The midfielder dished it to Pasalic on the right, and the Croatian cut inside, used Jayden Reid as a screen, and blasted a shot past Burki to give the Lions some insurance with his second goal of the night.

In addition to Pasalic’s two goals, the Croatian was simply a threat every time he touched the ball. He fired four shots, putting three on target, and was successful in all three of his dribble attempts, leaving St. Louis City players in his wake. He completed 40 passes at an 83.3% success rate, delivering three key passes and connecting on three of his four long balls. He didn’t have a successful cross, but he tried three of them, which is a higher-than-usual number for the shoot-first winger. Pasalic had four loose-ball recoveries on the defensive end, won four of his seven ground duels (57%), did not commit a foul, and drew one on St. Louis. It was a big performance from the Croatian.

2025 Final Grade

The Mane Land awarded Pasalic a solid composite rating of 7.5 out of 10 for his first season in Orlando. Unlike the talented Torres, Pasalic started scoring early in the season and had it not been for a team-wide power outage down the stretch, he likely would have surpassed Torres’ 2024 totals in the MLS regular season. As it was, he came within two goals and one assist of there being no dropoff from the Uruguayan’s offensive output, and unlike Torres, he was not the club’s primary (or even secondary) penalty taker. In short, Pasalic may not have made Orlando City fans forget the popular Torres, but he provided similar numbers and a more even distribution of his goal contributions. And, while both players are exceedingly one-footed, Pasalic has found workarounds that allow him to use his magical left foot in traffic a bit better than Torres did during his stay in Orlando by way of outside-foot passes that curl like a right-footed pass and an uncanny ability to nutmeg defenders on the sideline to get past.

2026 Outlook

Pasalic is under contract through 2027, but news that German clubs are interested in his services are concerning. If Borussia Monchengladbach or another Bundesliga club makes a serious offer, it’s unlikely that Orlando City can keep the Croatian. While the grass isn’t always greener, and he might not be guaranteed as much playing time, he’d be moving to a more high-profile league, showing what he can do against better competition, and he’d be much closer to home, making for much easier travel for those international call-ups. It really comes down to what kinds of offers come in for the left-footed wonder.

If Orlando City does not get a satisfactory offer, and Pasalic returns for 2026, he will be the starter at right wing. He’ll no doubt see additional adjustments from opposing defenses, but it’s not likely anything he hasn’t seen already. Teams will overplay him to cut inside on his left foot, which is sometimes easier said than done, and they’ll try to pick him up further out from goal, knowing the danger he poses even from 30 yards. However, he’d also be settled into the league after a year of adjustment. He’d know what to expect from the travel, different climates, the culture, and he’ll have a much better understanding of those tasked with marking him. It’s not unreasonable to expect an increase in production.

But the Lions will need to keep the poachers at bay first.


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Lion Links: 11/14/25

Luana signs new contract, Orlando Pride prepare for semifinal, Marta and Jacquie Ovalle nominated for FIFA Marta Award, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Happy Friday! The international soccer this week has been pretty nice to watch, with teams all over the world trying to secure a spot in the greatest tournament in sports — the World Cup. The NWSL playoffs return Saturday, making it a nice time to be a soccer fan. I’ll be spending most of the weekend watching soccer and trying to make a pumpkin pie cheesecake. Let’s get to the links!

Orlando Pride Re-Sign Luana

Midfielder Luana has signed a new contract with the Orlando Pride that will last through 2026, with a mutual option for 2027. This news comes after Luana scored her first goal for the Pride one week ago, converting a late penalty kick to seal the win against the Seattle Reign. Luana joined the Pride prior to the 2024 season but missed a majority of that season and the 2025 campaign after being diagnosed with Hodgkin’s lymphoma and undergoing treatment and recovery. The Pride’s midfield is now fairly set for the 2026 season, with Luana, Angelina, Haley McCutcheon, and Viviana Villacorta all under contract.

Orlando Pride Prepare for NWSL Semifinal

The Orlando Pride will host NJ/NY Gotham FC Sunday in the semifinals of this year’s NWSL playoffs. It will be a clash between the two most recent NWSL champions, with Orlando winning last year and Gotham winning in 2024. Orlando will have to find a way to get past 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year Ann-Katrin Berger, while also keeping Gotham’s many talented attacking players from making too much noise. It will be the last Pride game at Inter&Co Stadium this season, so make sure to get out and support the team for this massive game if able to do so.

Marta and Jacquie Ovalle Nominated for Marta Award

The nominees were revealed for this year’s FIFA Marta award, which celebrates the best goal in women’s soccer, and Orlando Pride teammates Marta and Jacquie Ovalle made the list. I’m not surprised to see Ovalle’s “shrimp” goal that she scored while with Tigres nominated, as I’ve never seen anything quite like it and it took some impressive acrobatic skill.

Marta, who won last year, was nominated this year for her goal against the Kansas City Current on Nov. 17, 2024. She sent a pair of Current defenders sliding with a nice cutback move in the box before dribbling around goalkeeper Almuth Schult and scoring to push the Pride into the NWSL Championship.

American midfielder Ally Sentnor was nominated for her screamer for the U.S. during the SheBelieves Cup. While I think Ovalle’s goal is the best of the bunch, there are some pretty good options from around the world so make sure to check them out and vote!

MLS Officially Changes Competition Calendar

A major shift is coming to MLS, as the league’s MLS Board of Governors voted to change the competition calendar to run from summer to spring like most European leagues. This new format is set to start in the summer of 2027, with the league kicking off near the end of July. Prior to that, there will be a 14-game transition season in 2027 from February to May to determine qualifying for the Concacaf Champions Cup, U.S. Open Cup, and Leagues Cup. This is one of the biggest changes in league history and I’m curious about how jarring the breaks in the winter and summer will end up being. Hopefully the benefits regarding the transfer market pan out though!

MLS Season Pass Will End After 2025

Starting in 2026, MLS games will be part of Apple TV’s streaming service at no additional cost to subscribers. As a result, MLS Season Pass will conclude after this year. It’s pretty great news for fans, especially those of us already paying for an Apple TV subscription. Another part of this news is that an Apple TV subscription will be part of full-season ticket packages in 2026. MLS games have been streamed on MLS Season Pass since 2023 as part of a 10-year broadcasting deal between the league and Apple.

Free Kicks

  • Former Lion Kevin Molino scored a late equalizer in Trinidad & Tobago’s 1-1 draw with Jamaica in World Cup qualifying. Orlando City’s Tyrese Spicer also started in the match and was denied a goal on a great save in the first half by Andre Blake.

That’s everything I have for you all this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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2025 Orlando City Season In Review: Robin Jansson

The captain’s play declined slightly, but he was still a first-choice player when healthy.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City signed Robin Jansson back in early March of 2019, and he has been a starter at center back ever since. There is no question that he is one of the club’s all-time great players, and he is also on the list of all-time fan favorites as well. The team recognized his efforts with a new contract before the 2024 season that went through the 2025 season with a club option for the 2026 season, and as of this writing, we do not know the status of that club option.

Let’s take a look back at the Beefy Swede’s seventh (!) season in purple.

Statistical Breakdown

Jansson’s total games played decreased for the third straight season, partially due to the early playoff exit and also due to a few injuries. When healthy, he started nearly every game though, slotting in as the left center back in Orlando City’s usual back four alignment.

In MLS regular-season play, Jansson appeared in 30 of Orlando’s 34 matches, starting all 30 and playing a total of 2,614 minutes —the fourth-most minutes of any player. He scored one goal, making it four out of the last five seasons that he has scored from his center back position, and added one assist. He attempted seven shots and put four on target. Jansson completed 88% of his passes, including career-high completion percentages on short (96%) and medium (95%) passes, and contributed five key passes. On the defensive side, he compiled 25 tackles, 24 interceptions, 136 clearances, and 20 blocks. He committed 20 fouls and suffered 23, and he received eight yellow cards but no red cards.

Orlando City went with its usual back four in the Eastern Conference wild card game, and even though Jansson was not 100% healthy, he started and went the full 90 minutes. He did not take any shots or contribute to a goal, completing 83% of his passes with no key passes. He added one tackle and three clearances on defense and committed zero fouls while suffering one. He was not booked.

The Beefy Swede only played one game in the U.S. Open Cup, starting against Nashville and playing all 90 minutes. He did not take any shots or record any goal contributions, but he completed 93% of his passes with two key passes. Defensively, he did not have any tackles but tallied six clearances and blocked one shot. He committed three fouls, drew two on the opposition, and was not booked.

Jansson played every minute during the first five Leagues Cup games, starting all five and playing until the final whistle (this will be important later in this paragraph) for a total of 450 minutes. He did not take any shots or have any goal contributions, though he converted his spot kick attempt in the game against Toluca that went to a penalty shootout. Jansson completed 85% of his passes with one key pass. On defense, he contributed one tackle, five interceptions, 21 clearances, and five blocks. He committed one foul but suffered six, and received one yellow card during game action and one red card after the conclusion of the semifinal game against Miami, due to the language he used when talking to the officials. That resulted in a suspension that forced him to miss the road game at the LA Galaxy.

Best Game

While he scored his only goal of the season against New York City FC and chipped in his only assist against Miami, I think Jansson’s best all-around game was in Orlando City’s 3-1 victory over Charlotte on May 14. The big man turned back the clock in this one, leading the team in tackles (4), interceptions (4), and clearances (5), while also recovering four loose balls and blocking a shot. He brought his offensive boots as well, completing a team-leading 72 passes at a 95% completion rate, and going 49-for-52 (94%) on medium and long passes. It was his long ball over the top to Alex Freeman that set up Orlando City’s second goal, and while he did not receive an assist, that goal would not have happened without his inch-perfect 50-yard bomb, which made Freeman look more like his wide receiver dad Antonio as he “caught” a long pass down the sideline. The Beefy Swede was excellent in helping the team secure all three points against Charlotte in a game that took Orlando City’s streak to 10 straight MLS games without a loss.

2025 Final Grade

The Mane Land awarded Jansson a composite rating of 6.5 out of 10 for the 2025 season, which is a decrease from the 7.5 out of 10 that he received in 2024, and tied for the lowest he has ever received from our site (6.5 in 2019, 7 in 2020, 7.5 in 2021, 7 in 2022, and 8 in 2023). Father Time robbed Jansson of somewhere between a quarter-step and half-step during 2025, and with a slight decrease in speed, Jansson stayed home on defense more often, decreasing his progressive carries from seven in 2023 and 2024 to zero in 2025. The captain was still a more-than-capable MLS center back, but there was a slight dip from 2024 to 2025 — something not unique specifically to him — and that is reflected in our grade.

2026 Outlook

As mentioned, the decision on Jansson’s 2026 club option has not been publicly announced, but if he wants to return to Orlando, the Lions will likely do everything they can to make that happen. Jansson is the club’s all-time leader in appearances with 238 and probably would surpass 250 during the initial months of 2026 if he returns, further cementing his status as a club legend.

He may have lost a little of his speed, but as is reflected in our final grade and in positional rankings, like this one from American Soccer Analysis (he ranked 53rd out of 124 qualified center backs), Jansson is still an MLS-caliber center back and would have the inside track on a starting role in 2026.

With several other players out of contract and likely to depart, it is logical that the club would want to keep some stability in the middle of the defense, so the Lions are likely to either trigger his club option or sign him to a new contract — probably a one-year deal with an option for the 2027 season — at a lower salary than his current guaranteed compensation of $996,667. Triggering his club option probably would push his salary above $1,000,000, so I think the club will go the new contract route instead of the club option route since he declined this past season and is in the latter part of his career. I expect him to return though, and to continue to be a fan favorite for his passionate play on defense, great hair, and the leadership he shows during every minute of every game.


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