Orlando City
Converting More Big Chances Could Propel Orlando City’s Season Into An Epic Universe
An analysis of Orlando City’s conversion rate on big chances and an evaluation of the impact of a small improvement .
If you could all hop in the Wayback Machine with me, I would like to take you all the way back to Sunday, May 18, 2025. It was a glorious day, punctuated by a 3-0 victory over Orlando City’s southern rivals Inter Miami. The Five Takeaways article about that game was pretty awesome too, and in that article, the dashingly handsome and spellbindingly brilliant author noted that Orlando City “could, and probably should, have scored five or even six goals” against Miami.
You probably surmised that the author of that Five Takeaways article was me, and I appreciate your immediate recognition of my handsomeness and brilliance. I am also pretty confident that you believe that Orlando City should have scored more than three goals as well, and I am here to tell you that the eye test and the tracking data agree. The wonderful site fotmob.com tracks a statistic coded by analysts from Opta called “big chances,” which they define on their frequently asked questions page as:
A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.
The key words in their definition are “reasonably be expected,” and so, while the word ‘expected’ is in this definition, do not confuse “reasonably be expected” with “expected goals” (xG). I think of expected goals more like a geography problem, kind of like the game show Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego? Was that an excuse just to mention that one of my best friends was a contestant on that show in 1994 and won a trip to Orlando? A gentleman never tells.
Back to the geography problem, expected goals is really just a mapping exercise, mapping conversion percentages to locations all over a soccer field and then summing up all the shots taken from those locations in a game. By that measure, fbref.com had Orlando City with an xG of 2.9 against Miami, extremely close to the actual output of three goals. Earlier in the season, however, the xG tracking was 1.6 against Toronto…but the Lions scored four goals.
There are countless examples of the real results not matching the xG. While I value xG and just finished reading a great book called How To Win The Premier League: The Inside Story of Football (soccer)’s Data Revolution, which details the history of expected goals and how the author — the former director of research at Liverpool — helped build the first analytics department at a Premier League club using xG as a foundational measurement tool, I still think xG needs to be used alongside other measures and cannot stand alone by itself.
One of the main reasons I think it needs to be combined with other data is that xG requires a shot to be taken, and sometimes that does not happen. Consider Orlando City’s third goal against Miami, if Duncan McGuire’s cross had gone untouched then the xG on that play would have gone from 0.56 to 0.0, because without a shot attempt there is no shot location, and no map coordinates to use to find the xG for that area of the field.
This takes us back to that definition of big chances, which notably does not include a requirement for a shot to be taken. Duncan McGuire’s pass clearly created a chance to score, and that pass, combined with the perfectly timed run from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, meant that Orlando City had a great opportunity to score from a location where anyone with eyes would think that “a player should reasonably be expected to score.” If Thórhallsson had whiffed, then the xG would have said no sir, you get 0.0 xG, even though everyone who watched that pass would have said, “Oh my, he should have scored that, what a big chance missed.”
Note: Thórhallsson did not miss, and it was glorious.
According to Opta’s tracking, Orlando City had eight big chances in the game against Miami. Which sounds closer to your memory of that match: Orlando City’s xG was 2.9 or Orlando City created eight big chances to score? I think most people probably think of the latter and remember the breakaways and the close-range opportunities and how it seemed like Orlando City had so many clear chances to score.
Looking at the 2025 season to date, the Lions are tied for the MLS lead with 50 big chances thus far, and just as against Miami, you can see that their conversion rate on those big chances has not been great:
| Club | Big Chances | Big Chances Converted | Conversion Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | 50 | 20 | 40% |
| Orlando City | 50 | 14 | 28% |
| Chicago | 46 | 18 | 39% |
| Columbus | 46 | 14 | 30% |
| Nashville | 41 | 12 | 29% |
| Vancouver | 40 | 21 | 53% |
| LAFC | 39 | 14 | 36% |
| Miami | 39 | 20 | 51% |
| Minnesota | 39 | 14 | 36% |
| Portland | 37 | 16 | 43% |
| MLS Average* | 34 | 12.4 | 37% |
- *The MLS Average is the average of every team except Orlando City
If you were wondering, yes, 28% is among the league’s worst conversion rates on big chances. It is tied for second worst, ahead of only Austin, which must be driving its fans up the wall with a 19% conversion rate on 31 big chances. Maybe the release of Wicked at the end of 2024 put the kibosh on good things happening to those in green for a while. Vancouver, on the other hand, is out there Burning Blue like Mariah the Scientist (contemporary pop song alert), converting a league-leading 53% of its big chances.
For Orlando City, however, 28% feels right. It feels terrible, but it also feels right. How many times did it seem like it would be harder not to score than to score, but then the Lions went ahead and did not score? Luis Muriel leads the team with 12 big chances missed (second most in MLS), and while it takes an extreme amount of skill and work to get into position to miss chances, the reality is that 12 times independent analysts thought Muriel should reasonably have been expected to score and he did not.
Anytime there is a lower-than-average performance there is always a question of whether that performance is reality or if there is a regression to the mean coming. In this case, regression to the mean would actually be positive, or something more akin to ascension to the mean. If Orlando City performs at a conversion rate similar to that of the rest of the league, the Lions will score about one additional goal per every 10 big chances, or an additional five goals over their next 50 big chances generated.
Considering that the Lions generated those 50 big chances in 14 games, it is easy math to double that and put Orlando City at 100 big chances after 28 games at the current pace. That extra five goals, were it to happen and the team continued to similarly convert its “small chances,” would net the team 32 goals in the next 14 games, and take the team to 59 after 28 games, with six more games still to play in the season.
Readers of UpRoar, the weekly newsletter for The Mane Land’s Buy Me a Coffee subscribers, which you can subscribe to by clicking this link, will know that Orlando City’s offense is already on pace to break the club’s MLS goal-scoring record, which is…wait for it…59 goals, and so, if the Lions could start converting more of their big chances, then the 2025 team could not only break that record but smash it — like, epically smash it like the Super Smash Brothers.
And speaking of…what better way to celebrate today’s official opening of Epic Universe but to imagine Óscar Pareja and the coaching staff out there training their goal-scoring dragons and super Marco and Luis-gi to tame the dark world of opposition defenses with their Harry Potter-esque offensive wizardry?
That would be epic, and if you are asking me what the coaching staff should do, that is what I pick.
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Real Salt Lake: Five Takeaways
Here’s what we learned from Orlando City’s 2-1 victory over Real Salt Lake.
Orlando City hosted Real Salt Lake at Inter.co Stadium Saturday, and it was a tale of two halves. The first half was one of the most boring first halves of soccer ever, and the second half was a wild free-for-all with Orlando City coming to life. The Lions were able to earn all three points at home, defeating RSL 2-1. Here are my five takeaways from the match.
An Inevitable Goal
Orlando City put out a mostly first-choice team on short rest, while RSL rotated pretty heavily due to their schedule congestion and a Leagues Cup knockout match coming up on Tuesday.The Lions had the majority of the possession through the first 35 mintues, while RSL was able to send the ball over the top a few times early, but the visitors kept getting the timing wrong against Orlando’s high line, resulting in offside calls. That was until the 36th minute, when Dominik Marczuk managed to stay onside, blazed past Zakaria Taifi, and was all alone on the back post. It wasn’t hard to put it in from there. Orlando City had the better of the play up to that point, but it still felt like Real Salt Lake’s goal was more likely.
Possession Without Purpose
Despite holding 58% possession in the first half, Orlando City managed to get exactly zero shots on goal on zero shots total. Zero shots taken the entire first half! As I mentioned above, that was zero shots against a heavily rotated RSL squad. For a team with Antoine Griezmann, Marco Pasalic, and Griffin Dorsey in the starting lineup, that stat is unacceptable. The lack of any chances resulted in Martin Perelman bringing on Justin Ellis and Daryl Dike as offensive halftime substitutions.
Subs Make a Difference
It took less than 10 minutes for Ellis and Dike, along with fellow substitute Joran Gerbet, to make a difference. While it was ultimately Griezmann who scored the goal, it was Gerbet, Ellis, and Dike that made it happen. Gerbet picked up a loose ball Eduard Atuesta won and sent it to Ellis on the right. Ellis sent the ball into the box to Dike, who took it with his back to goal, pirouetted with the ball, and shot it. Unfortunately for Dike, Mason Stajduhar was there to block it. Unfortunately for Stajduhar, Griezmann was there for the poacher’s goal to level the score for Orlando City. Griezmann positioned himself wisely without the ball, but it was the three halftime subs that really made it happen.
Griezmann Gets Another
After equalizing, Orlando City had all the momentum and pressed for a second goal. It was Griezmann who provided the winning goal with his first brace for the Lions. If his first goal was a “right time, right place” type of goal, his second was luck and skill combined. He took a pass in the box from Tyrese Spicer and tried to back heel it to Dike. The ball bounced off the defender and right back to Griezmann, who wasted no time in putting it in the back of the net. It was a microcosm of Griezmann’s time in Orlando for me. He tried to be unselfish, but ultimately taking the shot himself was what was needed. More of this please.
Possession With Purpose
If Orlando City did almost nothing with the ball in the first half, the Lions did everything needed with the ball in the second half. They actually raised the possession to 60% by the end of the match, scored two goals, and didn’t allow a second from RSL. The defenders were able to clear most of the attacks and Maxime Crepeau cleaned up anything that got through. Orlando City was able to continue to push into the attack even after the second goal. As I said above, it was a tale of two halves, and fortunately, the second half was enough for the win.
That is what I saw in Orlando City’s 2-1 victory over Real Salt Lake. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Real Salt Lake: Final Score 2-1 as Griezmann’s Brace Lifts Lions to Win
Antoine Griezmann scored twice in the second half to help Orlando City erase a 1-0 deficit and beat RSL at home.
Antoine Griezmann scored two second-half goals for his first Orlando City brace, leading the Lions to a 2-1 comeback win over Real Salt Lake at Inter.co Stadium tonight. After a lethargic opening 45 minutes that saw the visitors take a 1-0 lead into the half on Dominik Marczuk’s goal, an energetic trio of halftime subs injected life into the attack for Orlando (7-11-3, 24 points).
Griezmann’s two goals pushed the Lions past Real Salt Lake (8-8-4, 28 points), but it’s fair to say Orlando City wasn’t clean enough in the first half and couldn’t turn possession into attacking threat until the introduction of second-half subs Justin Ellis, Joran Gerbet, Daryl Dike, and Tyrese Spicer.
The Lions snapped an 0-2-2 winless streak in all competitions and a 0-2-1 skid in league play with tonight’s win, moving just over the playoff line into ninth spot in the Eastern Conference.
“It was a tough game,” Orlando City interim head coach Martin Perelman said after the match. “It wasn’t easy the first half; we tried good and sometimes it happens like that, the game. I think the team in the second half was able to to play in a very difficult moment. It’s not easy and the guys did an amazing job.”
Perelman’s lineup included Maxime Crepeau in goal behind a back line of Zakaria Taifi, Robin Jansson, David Brekalo, and Griffin Dorsey. Luis Otavio and Eduard Atuesta started in central midfield inside of Ivan Angulo and Marco Pasalic, with Tiago joining Antoine Griezmann up top.
The first half consisted of long spells of Orlando possession that came to nothing against a heavily rotated RSL side, with former Lion Mason Stajduhar having to do nothing in goal, because the Lions couldn’t even manage one first-half shot attempt. The visitors were content to stay in their low block of five at the back and four midfielders, wait for the exhausted-looking hosts to misplace a pass or have a bad touch, and look for chances to hit on the counter or with balls over the top.
Griezmann looked the most in need of a rest, as several of his touches were heavy in the first half, but he was far from the only one.
There was a scary moment early in the game when Jansson collided with Marczuk on an attempted RSL switch of play. The Orlando City captain was fouled and stayed down to get treatment, eventually leaving the field under his own power. He was able to return moments later.
Orlando City won a few set pieces in the opening half but did nothing with them, while the visitors looked dangerous if they could stay onside, which they struggled to do early. When the Lions did manage to find space against RSL’s back line, the crosses were poor, ending up either out of play or in the goalkeeper’s hands.
The visitors broke through the dull affair in the 36th minute. Alexandros Katranis laid off a ball on the left flank for Sam Junqua behind him. Junqua picked up his head and spotted Marczuk’s well-timed run behind Taifi and delivered a nice cross. Marczuk met the ball in the air with his foot and knocked it past Crepeau to make it 1-0.
Crepeau kept things from getting worse just before halftime. Angulo turned the ball over on an attempted recycle of a failed set piece, igniting a Real Salt Lake counter. The ball ended up with Marczuk again on the right and this time Crepeau was able to get a hand on it to palm it out for a corner.
The Lions dealt with the set piece and the half came to an end with Orlando’s starters trailing 1-0 to an RSL B-squad that dien’t allow a single shot attempt.
At the break, Orlando City had the advantage in possession (59.4%-40.6%) and passing accuracy (89.7-84.2%), while Real Salt Lake led in shots (3-0) and shots on target (2-0) and each team won one corner.
“It was a complicated game,” Griezmann said. “It’s never easy starting off with with a negative mark like that, but we made changes at halftime and put more more guys further up the field, and we were able to to get that goal and really kind of give ourselves some time of tranquility to create more opportunities to create those occasions to go out and get the winner.”
Looking to injuct some life into the game, or at least some fresh legs, Perelman sent Gerbet, Dike, and Ellis into the game at halftime for Otavio, Tiago, and Pasalic. It took a few minutes for the subs to settle in, but it made a difference in the Lions’ energy level.
Marczuk had the first look at goal in the second half, however, firing from distance from the right side, but it caused no trouble for Crepeau in the 50th minute.
Gerbet and Atuesta worked well together in the middle, keeping the ball better and allowing Taifi to jump into the play on the left. Taifi had a shot blocked out for a corner in the 51st minute. A minute later, Atuesta played a slick through ball for Griezmann. With Stajduhar coming off his line, the Frenchman chipped a shot over him but it went inches wide of the left post.
Orlando scored seconds after Stajduhar put the ball back into play. Atuesta won the ball to Gerbet at midfield, and he turned and found Ellis on the right. Ellis sent it in front to Dike for the shot, but it was blocked to Griezmann, who cleaned up in front, making it 1-1 in the 53rd minute.
Taifi got down the left in the 55th minute and did well to cut back a cross for Griezmann entering the box. Griezmann hit his shot immediately but it fizzed just over the bar. Three minutes later, Taifi cut inside and fired but hit the outside of the left post.
Real Salt Lake sent on Diego Luna, Saba Lobjanidze, and Morgan Guilavogui to try to counter the energy Orlando’s subs had brought into the game, and things opened up a bit. Dorsey did well to stick out a foot to deny a pass that would have put Luna in on goal in the 64th minute.
Spicer came on for Taifi in the 69th minute and injected even more energy into the match. He quickly won a set piece on the left just moments after coming on near the left corner flag. Atuesta sent his delivery on target toward the near post but it was headed behind for a corner kick. The ensuing corner bounced out to Ellis near the top of the area. The Homegrown forward used some deft footwork to work his way past two defenders before getting his shot blocked out for another corner.
Real Salt Lake broke the other way after the set piece and Luna ended up with it. He fired on target but Crepeau blocked it out of play for a corner. Orlando partially cleared the set piece delivery and Katranis tried a shot from long range that was well off target.
Orlando City took the lead moments later. Jansson sent the ball long out of the back to Spicer on the left. The Trinidad & Tobago international did well to get a cross in for Griezmann in the box. The first touch got away from the Frenchman but he picked up the rebound and slotted it past Stajduhar to make it 2-1 in the 81st minute.
“I think it’s a very good cross from ‘Spice’ and I was thinking to do one touch to score but I did very bad,” Griezmann said. “The defender touched the ball and the ball came to me, and yeah I saw a lot of legs and I tried to just make a pass between the legs of the defender and here is where you need to be patient just for one or two seconds. And today I was very patient in this time and this is why I scored.”
“It’s mandatory for us to enjoy Griezmann,” Perelman said. “We are lucky to be in the moment that he’s here with us. He’s one of the best players in the history of this sport. We have the privilege to see him. It’s just about enjoying him, watching him and enjoying him.”
Real Salt Lake threw bodies forward into the attack, but aside from some corner kicks, the visitors couldn’t produce much. Any time it looked like RSL might create something in the final third, Orlando was able to block crosses or head them out of danger. Orlando City also kept the ball well for spells down the stretch, taking the pressure off and allowing the Lions to see out the game.
At the final whistle, the Lions held the advantage in possession (59.6%-40.4%), shots (13-9), passing accuracy (88.8%-82%), and corners (5-4). Real Salt Lake put more shots on target (4-3). Ultimately, the Lions were sharp enough in the second half to make up for the slow start, although RSL helped out by being offside seven times to just once for Orlando.
“In the final zone, we were a lot more aggressive,” Griezmann said of the second half. “We were pressing more and more aggressive with our press, and it was a really good way to to get the win tonight.”
“The players were wanting to give us that control of the game against a team who sat back a little bit,” Perelman said. “I think the guys did a huge effort. Fortunately we could come back, win, because we really need it, and now we need to rest and think (about) the next one.”
“Just so happy to have the win at home,” Gerbet said. “It’s been like a gritty one, but a necessary one, an important one towards like the end of the season to get some momentum, because we’re going to start to go away as well, so we need to start to gain momentum, and I think that was a great way to do it.”
The Lions now get an honest-to-goodness normal work week. Their next match will be a week from tonight at Minnesota United.
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Real Salt Lake: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
The Lions look to finish their long homestand with a bounce-back performance against RSL.
Welcome to your match thread and preview for a Saturday night showdown between Orlando City (6-11-3, 21 points) and Real Salt Lake (8-7-4, 28 points) at Inter.co Stadium (7:30 p.m., Apple TV). This is the first and only scheduled meeting between the two teams from opposing conferences and the first time they’ve met since 2023 in Utah.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of the match.
History
The Lions are 2-2-3 in seven previous MLS meetings with RSL, including a 1-0-2 mark at home. However, Orlando City is 0-2-1 in their last three games against tonight’s visitors.
The last time the teams met, it was a forgettable result for Orlando City fans. But if you do remember, it’s not for good reasons, because it was a 4-0 beatdown that Real Salt Lake laid on the Lions on July 8, 2023. Cristian Arango, Justen Glad, Jefferson Savarino, and Anderson Julio did the damage.
During the most recent matchup in Orlando, most of us had no idea what COVID-19 was yet. The Lions and Real Salt Lake met on opening day of the 2020 MLS season, playing to a 0-0 draw at Exploria Stadium on Feb. 29. Despite it being a Leap Day, no one wanted to leap onto the scoresheet.
Orlando City lost the previous meeting, a 2-1 Real Salt Lake win in Utah on April 13, 2019. Nani scored Orlando’s only goal that day, but it came late in the match after Sam Johnson and Demir Kreilach had staked RSL to a 2-0 lead.
The May 6, 2018 meeting in Orlando was a wild 3-1 win for the Lions in which RSL missed multiple good scoring chances, hitting the woodwork and forcing Joe Bendik into some big saves. Dom Dwyer, Lamine Sané, and Yoshimar Yotún provided Orlando’s offense to offset Corey Baird’s early strike.
When the teams met in 2017 at Rio Tinto, Will Johnson provided all the offense against his old club in a 1-0 Orlando City victory. Johnson’s tally in the 17th minute was all Orlando City needed to take the first win of the series after two draws the previous two seasons.
In 2016, the teams played a memorable opening day match in which the Lions roared back with a frantic rally, as Cyle Larin and Adrian Winter pulled City level in a 2-2 draw at the Citrus Bowl. Joao Plata scored both RSL goals — one from the penalty spot — and RSL led 2-0 despite going down a man for 25 minutes, prior to Chris Penso evening things out by sending off Darwin Ceren.
Orlando drew 1-1 on the road in 2015 while down to 10 men after Kaká was sent off at the end of the first half. The captain opened the scoring. Sebastian Jaime found the equalizer in the 28th.
Match Overview
Orlando City enters on a poor run of form in a congested fixture schedule. The Lions lost 2-1 at home against the Chicago Fire on Wednesday, making it four games without a win in all competitions (0-2-2) and they haven’t won in MLS play in their last three (0-2-1). While the defense is leaking just one or two goals per game of late, the offense has been less tidy in finishing chances, which could be attributed to some players, including Antoine Griezmann, not getting much rest during this stretch of seven games in 22 days. Orlando is a pedestrian 4-4-2 at home this season and is winless in its last two home matches (0-1-1).
Real Salt Lake sits eighth in the Western Conference after going 0-3-3 in its last six league matches, including a 4-3 home loss to FC Dallas on Wednesday. But, oddly enough, that stretch of matches sandwiches a 2-0-1 run in Leagues Cup, and RSL advanced to the knockout rounds, where it will play Club Leon on Tuesday, so we may see some rotation, assuming the Utah-based club is going all in on trying to win Leagues Cup or at least one of the three coveted Concacaf Champions Cup spots. Tonight’s match will be RSL’s first on the road since Aug. 1, where the team is 1-5-3 in 2026 in league play.
Sergi Solans leads tonight’s opponents in goals (9) and goal contributions (12), with Diego Luna leading in assists (6) while adding five goals for 11 total goal contributions. The departure of Zavier Gozo and his six goals and five assists is a tough break for RSL, because beyond those three, 10 goals are spread across eight different players.
The Lions must rediscover their scoring boots for this game, as the Orlando defense pitches precious few shutouts, and if RSL plays its starters, either Solans, Luna, or both could do some damage on the other end.
The Lions will be without Braian Ojeda (foot), Martin Ojeda (thigh), and Bernardo Rhein (thigh), while Adrian Marin (thigh) is questionable, so left back may be an adventure, with Zakaria Taifi, Ivan Angulo, and David Brekalo as the leading candidates to play there, and all of them are right-footed. Real Salt Lake will be without Zach Booth (hamstring), Griffin Dillon (foot), Emeka Eneli (knee), Glad (adductor), and Ariath Piol (Achilles).
Match Content
- The most recent episode of the PawedCast includes our key matchups and score predictions for tonight’s match.
- David Rohe gave his three keys to an Orlando City victory in tonight’s match.
Official Lineups
Orlando City (4-4-2)
Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.
Defenders: Zakaria Taifi, Robin Jansson, David Brekalo, Griffin Dorsey.
Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Luis Otavio, Eduard Atuesta, Marco Pasalic.
Forwards: Tiago, Antoine Griezmann.
Bench: Javier Otero, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Joran Gerbet, Gustavo Caraballo, Harvey Sarajian, Tyrese Spicer, Justin Ellis, Daryl Dike.
Real Salt Lake (5-4-1)
Goalkeeper: Mason Stajduhar.
Defenders: Alexandros Katranis, Sam Junqua, Juan Arias, Kobi Henry, Domink Marczuk.
Midfielders: Aiden Hezarkhan, Luca Moisa, Pablo Ruiz, Lineker Rodrigues.
Forward: Victor Olatunji.
Bench: Rafael Cabral, Juan Sanabria, Philip Quinton, Lukas Engel, Noel Caliskan, Colin Guske, Morgan Guilavogui, Saba Lobjanidze, Diego Luna.
Referees
REF: Fotis Bazakos.
AR1: Brian Dunn.
AR2: Jose Da Silva.
4TH: Marcos DeOliveira.
VAR: Edvin Jurisevic.
AVAR: TJ Zablocki.
How to Watch
Match Time: 7:30 p.m.
Venue: Inter.co Stadium — Orlando.
TV/Streaming: Apple TV.
Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).
Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.
Enjoy the match. Go City!
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