Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Houston Dynamo: Player Grades and Man of the Match
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/OCvFCC-2019.05-47-1-scaled.jpg)
Orlando City may have failed to score for the third consecutive game, but at least the Lions got a point for this one. A good defensive effort went largely to waste due to a lack of attacking precision but at this point it’s at least better to draw than lose.
It wasn’t a match most people that the supporters will be singing about for years to come and now the Lions have only one win in 20 matches (1-16-3). However, the performance was actually pretty decent and miles better than last Sunday’s game at Chicago.
Let’s get to the grades.
Starters
GK, Adam Grinwis, 7.5 — Grinwis made his MLS debut and got a clean sheet, though truthfully he didn’t have to do a lot. But what he did have to do, he did well. Grinwis made a crucial 1-v-1 save in the 58th minute to stop Romell Quioto. That was easily the most difficult of his three saves on the night. It nearly turned into a nightmare just 15 minutes in. He took a ball played by Houston and tried to play it into the area to pick up. Quioto took it from him and scored into an empty net but video review ruled that the Houston attacker had kicked it out of Grinwis’ hands. He made his first MLS save on a Tomas Martinez shot in the closing minutes of the first half. Even his distribution was good, as he connected on eight of his 10 long balls and passed at an 84% rate.
D, Mohamed El-Munir, 5.5 — Mo had a tough first half in many ways, losing the ball out of bounds and over the end line a few times. It seemed he didn’t trust his speed and several of his attacks slowed down and allowed Houston to get behind the ball. He finished with a decent 87% pass percentage but a lot of the attacks up his side broke down as he couldn’t quite get on the same page with his attacking teammates. He created only one chance in the game. Defensively he was pretty good, making two tackles, leading the team with four interceptions, and adding a clearance.
D, Lamine Sané, 7.5 (MotM) — It was good to see Sané back in the lineup and he helped stabilize the defense. His five clearances were a team high and he did well to help provide cover for the few times El-Munir got caught up field or beaten down the wing. He added two tackles, three interceptions and a blocked shot, but, more importantly, he always seemed to pop up in the right spot with a crucial tackle to prevent Houston’s attack from getting into dangerous spots. He also passed well (94%), hitting three of his four long balls.
D, Jonathan Spector, 7 — Although Baldomero Toledo ruled it a foul, Specs made a vital challenge in the 24th to dispossess Quioto on the break. The play looked clean but there may have been contact in the follow-through. Toledo gave Houston a free kick but it could have been much worse. He made a vital clearance with his head after Grinwis stopped Quioto in the 58th, nodding away a shot by Martinez. His 93% passing rate was good and he connected on four of six long balls. Defensively, he put in a good shift, blocking two shots and notching two clearances. He didn’t register an interception or a tackle, but some of that is due to the overall team defense keeping Houston quiet and the tackle he made was ruled a foul. I vehemently disagree with the call.
D, Scott Sutter, 6.5 — His clearance late in the first half prevented a goal at the back post by Quioto and he overall did a good job of keeping Houston’s assist leader from getting dangerous crosses in, often forcing Quioto to play negative balls. He had a tackle, an interception, and two clearances, but his passing wasn’t quite as sharp (83%) as it could have been. He attempted one shot but it was no trouble for Joe Willis.
MF, Uri Rosell, 6.5 — Although his passing was pretty sharp in the first half (89%), he also put himself in jeopardy a few times by touching the ball into an area where he could be closed down and dispossessed. Uri did a solid job of helping funnel the Houston attacks wide and keeping the middle trouble free for the center backs. He created three scoring chances and finished with an 86% passing accuracy (on the most attempts, with 73). He connected on eight of his 12 long balls. After the match, James O’Connor and Spector each praised Rosell and our next player in the list for their efforts at helping keep a clean sheet.
MF, Carlos Ascues, 7 — The Peruvian international made a nifty drop pass to Sacha Kljestan in the 31st minute that led to Orlando’s first shot on target. His passing was spot on in the first half, finishing the first period at 97% and although there weren’t a lot of difficult ones, he always seemed to pick out the right one. Ascues attempted one shot and created two scoring chances, while passing at a 93% rate and finishing with one tackle, two interceptions, and three clearances. He definitely looks the part at defensive midfielder.
MF, Yoshimar Yotún, 6 — I thought it was a mixed bag for Yoshi on the evening. He once again led the team in touches and his three chances created tied Rosell for the team lead. However, he seemed a bit off in the attacking third, seeing many of his final balls into the area cut out or not be on the same page as his runner. His 82% passing rate could have been better and only two of his 12 crosses were accurate. He made one tackle on defense. After the game, he picked up an unnecessary yellow card. Still, if anything was going to happen offensively on the evening, it looked like it was going to come through Yotún. He just lacked the final quality. Neither of his two shots were on target, although his inside-out attempt didn’t miss by much in the 56th.
MF, Sacha Kljestan, 5 — Kljestan hasn’t quite seemed himself since returning from injury, but he did have two shot attempts and got both on target, forcing a couple decent saves. His passing was decent overall (88%) but he created only one scoring chance. His shot in the 31st forced Joe Willis into into a diving save. Defensively, he had a clearance on a Houston corner. He didn’t get credit for for a shot but he did get his foot on a cross in the 47th minute that skipped just wide of the far post.
MF, Will Johnson, 5 — It was Johnson’s 50th appearance with Orlando and it was a solid, if unspectacular, outing. Will tried for the spectacular in the 32nd with a long-range effort that didn’t miss the near post by much. A minute later, he made a nice midfield steal and then drew a yellow card foul on Andrew Wenger. He sent in a dangerous shot in the 41st that forced save. Johnson led the team in shot attempts (3), getting one on target. Defensively, he had a clearance and a blocked shot. He was accurate on 91% of his passes and he drew five fouls, although he also committed three himself.
F, Dom Dwyer, 5 — Dom has seemed a bit off of late, missing three 1-v-1 opportunities in the last two matches. Tonight he had one such chance and again saw his shot saved although it didn’t matter since he was offside anyway. He was fouled a lot and he allowed the ones that didn’t get called to get into his head a bit and took a yellow card as a result. He attempted two shots, got one on target, and only attempted seven passes, connecting at just a 71% rate. Defensively he registered a clearance.
Substitutes
F, Stefano Pinho (79’), N/A — The Brazilian was the only substitute on the night but he didn’t do much and I’m not sure he had an opportunity to really make an impact so I’m not giving him a grade. He did attempt one shot that got blocked. He was three of five on his passes (60%), was dispossessed once and had two unstable touches. Not much impact, really.
That’s the way I saw it. Tell me what you thought and vote in our poll below.
Polling Closed
Player | Votes |
Adam Grinwis | 41 |
Lamine Sané | 20 |
Jonathan Spector | 7 |
Carlos Ascues | 24 |
Uri Rosell | 1 |
Yoshimar Yotún | 2 |
Other | 3 |
Opinion
Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024
Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/OCvMontreal-LeaguesCup-2024.07.26-29-1-scaled.jpg)
Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?
The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.
For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.
Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.
It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.
Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.
Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.
Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.
Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.
Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 9/6/24
Amanda Allen loaned to Lexington SC, Alex Morgan announces retirement, USMNT prepares for Canada, and more.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/DSC_0068.jpg)
Happy Friday! I don’t have many plans this weekend, but am still looking forward to the next few days after a hectic week. When not working, I plan on finally starting Book of Night by Holly Black and figuring out how to make the most out of some dark rum I was gifted. For now though, let’s get to today’s links from around the soccer world!
Amanda Allen Loaned to Lexington SC
The Orlando Pride have loaned forward Amanda Allen to Lexington SC for the remainder of the USL Super League season. This decision should give Allen some valuable minutes, and the loan includes a right to recall as well. The 19-year-old has made 17 appearances since joining the Pride and had an assist in this year’s season opener. She is also currently in Colombia for the U-20 Women’s World Cup and her Canada squad takes on Brazil tonight. Hopefully she’s able to tear it up in the USL Super League’s inaugural season.
Alex Morgan Announces Her Retirement
American forward Alex Morgan has announced that she will retire after the San Diego Wave’s match on Sunday. She also announced that she is pregnant with her second child.
In her 224 international appearances, Morgan scored 123 goals and was a major force behind the USWNT’s back-to-back World Cup victories in 2015 and 2019. At the club level, she has played in every year of the NWSL’s existence and joined the Orlando Pride ahead of their inaugural season in 2016. In her six years in Orlando, Morgan recorded 23 goals and 10 assists in 69 appearances. Off the field, she’s been an outspoken supporter of equality and increased investment in women’s sports. We wish her the best of luck after a legendary career.
USMNT Faces Canada on Saturday
The United States Men’s National Team will take on Canada on Saturday in Kansas City in the first of two friendlies this month. Plenty has changed since the U.S. beat Canada in a penalty shootout in the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup quarterfinals, particularly on the sideline. American coach Jesse Marsch was hired by Canada in May, while the U.S. will be led by Mikey Varas in an interim capacity amid buzz that Mauricio Pochettino will take over. The U.S. is without Giovanni Reyna for these friendlies due to injury, with Cade Cowell replacing him. Canada boasts a talented roster that includes a trio of former Lions in Cyle Larin, Richie Laryea, and Kamal Miller. After this match, the USMNT will take on New Zealand on Tuesday.
Keeping Up With International Soccer
San Marino may be one of the smallest countries in the world, but it arguably had the biggest win of a busy day of international soccer after beating Liechtenstein 1-0 for its first competitive victory. Elsewhere in the UEFA Nations League, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia, while Spain was held to a scoreless draw in Serbia.
The third round of AFC World Cup qualifying is underway and Australia was upset 1-0 at home by Bahrain. Japan suffered no such setback though, dominating China in a 7-0 home win. Palestine drew 0-0 against South Korea in Seoul, which is no easy task.
CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifiers have also resumed, and Bolivia came up with a huge 4-0 win in high altitude against Venezuela to move up the table. We may see some Lions in action today. Facundo Torres and Uruguay take on Paraguay, while Pedro Gallese, Wilder Cartagena, and Peru host Colombia.
Free Kicks
- FC Cincinnati’s Luca Orellano won MLS Goal of the Matchday for scoring from nearly 80 yards out to beat CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois. Orlando’s Facundo Torres placed second in the voting for his volleyed strike against Nashville SC.
- NJ/NY Gotham FC forward Ella Stevens was named NWSL Player of the Month after recording three goals and two assists in August.
- Argentina beat Brazil in blind soccer at the Paralympics, ending Brazil’s unbeaten streak that has lasted the past 20 years. France and Argentina will face off in the gold medal game on Saturday.
- Chris Jurasek has stepped down as Chelsea’s chief executive after a year in the position, with Jason Gannon replacing him.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season
A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CityReper83124-42.jpg)
We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.
The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:
- Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
- Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
- At Columbus (1.96, second)
- At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
- Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
- At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
- Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)
As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.
In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.
In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)
New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Last-7-Games-1024x257.png)
A few takeaways from this chart:
- I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
- That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
- Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
- Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.
During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Possible-7-Game-Results.png)
Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.
Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.
No, that loss still stunk.
Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Algorithm-1024x262.png)
That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Rank-Order.png)
Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.
I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.
While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.
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