Orlando City
Orlando City vs. FC Cincinnati: Final Score 1-1 as Lions Again Drop Points Against a Team Low in the Table
Nani’s second-half goal rescues a point on the road.
Wednesday night’s 1-1 draw against Inter Miami should have been a wakeup call despite being a rivalry game. But Orlando City continued to be wasteful with chances in a 1-1 away draw against FC Cincinnati tonight, dropping points again in a matchup with a lower table team at TQL Stadium. The Lions (8-4-6, 30 points) came from a goal down in the second half on a Nani strike after conceding to Cincinnati (3-7-7, 16 points) forward Brenner in the closing minutes of the first half.
Orlando has not lost to FC Cincinnati since FCC entered the league (2-0-2) but has yet to win against the recent expansion side in their home stadium (0-0-2) with one more match to play there this season. The Lions are unbeaten in their last three (1-0-2) but still haven’t returned to their form from earlier in the season. FC Cincinnati still hasn’t won in its new home (0-3-4).
“Obviously it’s always tough, because you want to win every game,” goalkeeper Mason Stajduhar said. “We fought hard, though. We came back in the second half.”
Oscar Pareja didn’t rotate heavily, but did swap out some players from Wednesday’s match against Inter Miami. Stajduhar got his third straight start in goal, backing up a defensive line of Emmanuel Mas, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel (for the injured Antonio Carlos — concussion protocol), and Kyle Smith. Junior Urso and Uri Rosell played central midfield, with Benji Michel, Mauricio Pereyra, and Chris Mueller funneling the attack toward Tesho Akindele at the top of the formation. Nani started on the bench and Joao Moutinho returned to the match day roster, although there was no sign of Daryl Dike, Pedro Gallese, or Alexandre Pato.
Orlando City held much of the possession in the first half but did little with it. Cincinnati played defensively and the Lions didn’t do a lot to break down the hosts’ shape, opting for shots from outside the area or trying to be too fine around the top of the box and losing the ball without generating anything.
The Lions got the first opportunity in the 11th minute when Mas tried a shot from outside the area. The ball skipped in front of Kenneth Vermeer and nearly slipped underneath him for a goal.
Cincinnati’s first chance came in the 17th minute when Allan Cruz was able to sneak in down the right, but Jansson got back and made a sliding block.
Three minutes later, Mas hit an inside-out shot toward goal that Vermeer was able to snare, although it may have been drifting wide anyway.
Mas said he’s getting more comfortable in Pareja’s system and that’s allowing him to get more into the flow of the match.
“It’s a new football for me. It’s a new system,” Mas said through a club interpreter. “I think, seeing that’s the way that Oscar wants to play and he’s got the confidence to give me some minutes, that really helped me develop. It’s a system where you need minutes. You need time in the game playing with your teammates to really make it work.”
A minute after his second shot, Mas sent a dangerous cross back across the area from left to right, but the defense knocked it away before Akindele could get to it. Mas was easily Orlando’s best player in the opening half.
Mueller had a go from outside the area in the 22nd minute but hit his shot way over the bar as Orlando just didn’t seem to have any ideas on how to finish an attack.
In the 27th minute, both teams fashioned a chance. Brenner had his shot blocked by Jansson and it fell for Yuya Kubo, who fired well over the crossbar. The Lions somehow got the ball to Akindele behind the defense seconds later (the broadcast didn’t show how) and he was 1-v-1 against Vermeer, who made an outstanding save to preserve the 0-0 score.
Two Lions got in each other’s way on the ensuing corner and it appeared Mas got his head to it, but the confusion made him send it wide. Mas then served in a great cross in the 32nd minute to the top of the six and Smith got to it first but made a mess of his shot attempt and popped it up over the goal.
A minute later, the Lions almost paid for that miss when Luciano Acosta worked Schlegel back and forth and sent a shot just wide of the far post from the top of the area.
In the 36th minute, Pereyra sent a good ball across to the far side from the left. Mueller slipped on the play, but Smith was able to reach it before the defense closed. The right back again got his final touch completely wrong and the ball squirted harmlessly off target.
Alvaro Barreal fired a shot wide of goal in the 39th minute and moments later Rosell went down with a non-contact injury, holding his groin area. He struggled back onto the pitch on the ensuing throw-in but was obviously not moving well. Barreal got down the right and cut the ball back to Brenner who was completley unmarked and the Brazilian finished easily. It was Cincinnati’s first goal in more than three matches.
As the video shows, Rosell’s lack of mobility after the injury set up an overload on the attacking right, but on the back side no one picked up Brenner. Rosell was subbed out after the goal for Andres Perea.
“I was very upset with that moment because I thought as well that (Rosell) was hurt,” Pareja said. “When I saw him walking back to the field — sometimes that happens with a player. It was almost the last two or three minutes in the half. I’ll take that responsibility on not subbing right away.”
Pareja said he’d hoped they could get to halftime and not have to use up one of their three substitution stoppages but dropping Pereyra deeper didn’t work on the play and he had no choice but to then send Perea on for Rosell.
Orlando held a possession advantage (51.4%-48.6%) and passed more accurately (87.8%-86.1%) in the first half, but a late flurry by FC Cincinnati had the hosts ahead on shot attempts (8-7), although Orlando got more on frame (3-1). Each team won one corner.
Pareja let the second half play out for 10 minutes and then brought on a triple substitution, sending Nani, Moutinho, and Ruan on for Michel, Mas, and Smith. Mas had been his most productive offensive player all night but he’s still likely a little short of 90-minute match fit and Nani works well down the left with the Portuguese left back.
Just a minute after Nani came on, he tied the game. A terrible no-look pass in his own half by Cruz ended up on the foot of Orlando’s captain instead. Nani dribbled toward the top of the area and sent a shot just inside the right post to even the score with his ninth goal of the season in the 56th minute. It was the captain’s 15th goal involvement in 15 appearances in 2021.
Orlando went for the kill in the moments right after the goal. Mueller ended up with the ball on the right and he blasted a shot but Vermeer was able to fight it off in the 57th minute. A minute later, Urso got into the box and went down as he was set to tee up a shot but referee Fotis Bazakos wasn’t interested in his penalty shout. Ruan won a corner on the other side just seconds later and the cross found Akindele’s head but his redirect was just over the bar.
Cincinnati had to sub Vermeer out a few minutes later, as the keeper went down holding his quad, and Przemyslaw Tyton entered the match. That delay seemed to break Orlando’s momentum and allowed the hosts to settle down a bit. The game opened up and FCC seemed to generate the better opportunities on the counter. Cruz fired over the bar in the 66th and Brenner did likewise from a tight angle in the 73rd.
Mueller nearly sent Akindele in behind just seconds after the restart from Brenner’s miss but new Cincinnati defender Geoff Cameron poked the ball away at the last second as the forward was preparing to shoot.
Brenner sent another shot just inches wide in the 75th minute before Orlando won a series of corners, but the Lions could do nothing with them.
Pareja sent Joey DeZart into the match for Urso in the 83rd minute with his final substitution, but would have liked to have made an attacking sub late. He said the injury to Rosell forced his hand to go a different way.
“The substitution early in the middle just took away the possibility, for example, to bring (on) Silvester (van der Water) or Alex (Alvarado). That was in my plans just to finish stronger up front,” Pareja said.
DeZart got into the box in the 88th minute and went down after contact but again Bazakos wasn’t interested. That was the last promising opportunity for Orlando other than some forays down the right that fizzled when Ruan either waited too long to cross or just sent a low ball blindly into traffic with his runners on the far side.
Cincinnati fashioned a chance to win the game in stoppage time. Forward Isaac Atanga was either offside or just held on by Moutinho and the ball found its way through to him. He dribbled into the area and Stajduhar came off his line, made himself big, and deflected the ball away for Jansson to clear in the 94th minute.
“I first thought he was offside — it’s what it looked like — but I guess he wasn’t,” Stajduhar said. “I just wanted to stay patient, stay up, wait for him to make a move, make him do something. The last second I went to spread and luckily got a piece of it. Robin was there to sweep it up, clean it up.”
Orlando saw out the ensuing corner and the match was over.
The more open second half allowed Cincinnati to out-shoot Orlando 17-13, although the Lions got more attempts on goal (5-2). Orlando also held more possession (53.8%-46.2%), earned more corners (6-2), and passed more accurately (87%-84.1%) but could only manage a single goal.
“I think we leave a little bit angry about the result,” Mas said. “We came in today to take the three points. I think that’s the beautiful thing about MLS is that every team is competitive. You can’t take a day off. You can’t relax on any particular game because there are so many irregularities that if you don’t come in and give your best effort, then any team can take the three points.”
“There’s no easy game in MLS, but you want to win every game you play,” Stajduhar said. “I think it’s just keep doing that next little step, get us over the hump, and get back in the win column.”
Next up for Orlando City is a Leagues Cup matchup at home against Santos Laguna on Thursday, Aug. 12. It’s the Lions’ first international competition and a big moment in club history.
Opinion
The Case for Starting Luis Muriel Against Atlanta
Muriel’s game is tailor made to help Orlando get the result in what will likely be a tight contest.
For the second season in a row, Orlando City finds itself hosting a match in the Eastern Conference semifinals. It was a scenario that was far less likely this year, with the Lions watching as all three seeds above them crashed out in the first round, leaving OCSC as the highest-seeded team still standing in the East. Last year’s semifinal match didn’t go so well, with 10-man Orlando falling to the eventual champion Columbus Crew in extra time. So, how do the Lions avoid that fate this year and advance to the Eastern Conference final for the first time?
For starters, they can succeed on each of Dave Rohe’s three keys to victory! I’d like to make an addition though, and campaign for Oscar Pareja to start Luis Muriel instead of Ivan Angulo. To be clear, it’s not that I have an axe to grind against Angulo, as he’s largely ranged from solid to good when starting out on the left wing. For my money though, this match is tailor made for Muriel and giving him the start could help Orlando get through to the next round without needing to resort to extra time or penalties.
It’s not unreasonable to expect Sunday’s game to play out in a similar manner to Orlando’s 2-1 Decision Day loss to Atlanta, in which the visitors had 34% of the ball to OCSC’s 66%. True, part of that disparity was down to Atlanta’s 2-0 lead after 16 minutes, which allowed the visitors to sit back, bunker, and protect what they had. Even if the game had remained scoreless for longer though, Atlanta probably would likely have ceded possession anyway and looked to play defensively and hit on the counter. They rolled out a compact 4-2-3-1 in that game, but deployed a 3-5-2 in their last two games against Miami, and they might do so again after its effectiveness.
With Orlando likely to have the lion’s share (hehe) of the ball, and Atlanta sitting deep, there figures to be less room for Angulo to deploy his electric pace. OCSC will probably need to make things happen in the “half-court,” with an emphasis on moving the ball quickly, making clever runs, and finding those runs with creative and accurate passes.
Enter Luis Muriel. The Colombian Designated Player had a slow start to life with Orlando City but has come on strong in recent months, excelling in a super sub role and frequently making an impact in games off the bench. In 56 minutes against Charlotte in Game 3, he completed two dribbles, played one key pass and one through ball, and took three shots, with one on target, one off target, and one blocked. He doesn’t offer Angulo’s speed, but he has maybe the best vision and range of passing of anyone on the team, he’s an outstanding dribbler, and he’s a calm and capable finisher.
He hasn’t been asked to do a ton of traditional striker work during his resurgence, but Muriel has excelled at setting up teammates and creating chances, as evidenced by the litany of key passes littering his stat sheet. Those attributes could be hugely important in breaking Atlanta down, and with two key passes and two completed dribbles against them in just 22 minutes on Decision Day, he’s already proven he can be effective against the Five Stripes.
Another thing that could help the Lions in starting Muriel, is that it would almost certainly take Atlanta by surprise. Oscar Pareja isn’t exactly known for tweaking his lineup on a game-to-game basis, vastly preferring to find an XI that works and stick with it religiously. As long as everyone’s healthy, that lineup has featured Angulo starting with Muriel coming off the bench, and flipping the script would certainly be an unexpected variation that Atlanta might not be expecting. At this level, teams are good enough to adjust on short notice, but you also take every possible edge that you can find, and a lineup shift could be exactly that.
In short, as much as I like Angulo, I think Muriel should get the call in his place on Sunday. The veteran’s combination of vision, passing ability, and dribbling makes him uniquely suited to help unlock defenses, which will be crucial in a game where Orlando City is likely to dominate possession. I don’t think it’s likely to happen given Papi’s consistency with his lineups, but the unexpected move could give the Lions the edge they’re looking for. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/22/24
Emily Sams wins Defender of the Year, Orlando City’s turnaround, Barbra Banda nominated for African Woman Player of the Year, and more.
Happy Friday! Beyond working and catching some soccer here and there, I don’t have many plans for the weekend. I’m also hoping to find some time to trial some cranberry and brie bites I’m trying to perfect before Thanksgiving next week. For now though, let’s jump right into today’s links from around the soccer world!
Emily Sams Awarded NWSL Defender of the Year
The Orlando Pride’s Emily Sams was named 2024 NWSL Defender of the Year after a fantastic season. The Pride only conceded 20 goals in a record-breaking season, and Sams played in all 13 of the team’s shutouts. Sams was one of the most impactful players for the Pride this year and had 163 recoveries, 76 clearances, and 16 blocks. She’s the first Pride player to win the award and it’s great to see her receive some deserved recognition in her second year in Orlando.
Analyzing Orlando City’s Revitalization
It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for the Lions to say the least. There were serious concerns over whether or not the Lions would even make the playoffs back in June and now they find themselves as the highest remaining seed in the Eastern Conference this postseason. Facundo Torres’ excellent run of play is a major reason behind the club’s turnaround, but the buy-in from all of Orlando’s attackers has helped create a dynamic and unselfish offense. Although expectations are rising once more for the Lions, Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi spoke on how the team is focused on Sunday’s playoff match.
“There’s only one team that matters: Atlanta United,” Muzzi said. “The easiest way to lose a game is to look ahead. I’ll say we didn’t expect to be playing at home, but it’s welcomed. We’re focused on Atlanta, they’re playing great. They have a lot of confidence and momentum. It doesn’t matter they’re the No. 9 seed because they’re not playing like the No. 9 seed.”
Barbra Banda Up For African Woman Player of the Year
Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda was one of 10 players nominated for this year’s African Woman Player of the Year award. The 24-year-old has done well for both club and country this year. She scored 13 goals in her first regular season with the Pride and has three goals so far in the playoffs. Banda also had a hat trick for Zambia in the Summer Olympics. She’s joined by fellow NWSL players Temwa Chawinga and Racheal Kundananji on the list of nominees. Bay FC striker Asisat Oshoala, who has won the award in five of the past six years, was not nominated for the first time in a decade. The nomination list will be trimmed to a three-player shortlist before the winner is announced on Dec. 16 in Morocco.
Croix Bethune Named NWSL Midfielder of the Year
Washington Spirit rookie Croix Bethune won NWSL Midfielder of the Year after recording 10 assists and five goals in 17 matches this season. A knee injury cut her season short in September, but she still tied Tobin Heath’s record for the most assists in a season. Bethune gave plenty of NWSL teams headaches this year and also won Rookie of the Year earlier this week. She’s the first player to ever receive NWSL Midfielder of the Year and she beat out the Pride’s Marta, the North Carolina Courage’s Ashley Sanchez, and Kansas City Current duo Lo’eau LaBonta and Vanessa DiBernardo.
Eastern Conference Clubs Making Moves
FC Cincinnati officially signed striker Kevin Denkey from Cercle Brugge on a deal that will last through 2028. The 23-year-old joins as a Designated Player on a reported $16.2 million transfer, which would be a league record. He won the Golden Boot in Belgium last year after scoring 27 goals and should give Cincinnati some considerable firepower next year.
Elsewhere in the league, CF Montreal declined the option on Josef Martinez’s contract, meaning the Venezuelan forward will be a free agent once again. The 31-year-old led Montreal with 11 goals this season and we’ll see where he winds up next. Charlotte FC did not trigger the purchase option on Pep Biel’s loan, opening up a Designated Player spot. Former Lion Junior Urso’s contract option was also declined by Charlotte. The Philadelphia Union signed defender Olivier Mbaizo to a contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2026, with options for 2027 and 2028 as well.
Free Kicks
- In preparation for the 2026 World Cup, FIFA named 26 new options across the country as “base camps” for participating teams to train and rest. Orlando was included, with OCSC’s training grounds at Osceola Heritage Park pitched alongside the Lake Nona Wave Hotel.
- ESPN‘s Jeff Kassouf dove into how the NWSL stacks up to the biggest sports leagues in the U.S. Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Pride and Spirit should showcase just how entertaining the league is to plenty of viewers.
- Pep Guardiola will stick around as Manchester City’s manager for a couple more years after signing a two-year contract extension with the club. His contract was set to expire at the end of this season.
- Here’s a cool breakdown of the seven amateur teams that have qualified for the 2025 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup so far. None are from Florida, but there are some great logos to check out if you’re looking for a team to root for in the early rounds next year. Debutants Southern Indiana FC and the Virginia Dream are my personal favorites of the bunch.
- The draw for the 2025 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations will take place today. Zambia is in the second pot, meaning it will be put in a group of four that will include one of Nigeria, South Africa, or Morocco. The tournament itself will be in July of next year.
- Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City all clinched a spot in the Women’s Champions League quarterfinals with two games still left to play.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend. Go Orlando!
Orlando City
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.
The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.
Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.
Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:
I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.
Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):
Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.
Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.
That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:
It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.
If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.
While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.
I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.
Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!
Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.
Vamos Orlando!
Orlando Pride vs. Washington Spirit: Three Keys to Victory
The Case for Starting Luis Muriel Against Atlanta
Lion Links: 11/22/24
-
Lion Links3 days agoLion Links: 11/20/24
-
Orlando Pride5 days agoOrlando Pride vs. Kansas City Current: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Orlando Pride2 weeks agoOrlando Pride vs. Chicago Red Stars: Final Score 4-1 as Barbra Banda Brace Lifts Pride to First-Ever Playoff Win
-
Orlando Pride5 days agoOrlando Pride vs. Kansas City Current: Final Score 3-2 as Pride Advance to NWSL Championship
-
Orlando City2 weeks agoOrlando City vs. Charlotte FC: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
-
Orlando City1 day agoOrlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory
-
Orlando City1 day agoHow Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
-
Orlando City2 weeks agoOrlando City vs. Charlotte FC: Five Takeaways