Orlando City
Orlando City vs. FC Cincinnati: Final Score 1-1 as Lions Again Drop Points Against a Team Low in the Table
Nani’s second-half goal rescues a point on the road.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/E8Ov1CRWYAIFplm.jpg)
Wednesday night’s 1-1 draw against Inter Miami should have been a wakeup call despite being a rivalry game. But Orlando City continued to be wasteful with chances in a 1-1 away draw against FC Cincinnati tonight, dropping points again in a matchup with a lower table team at TQL Stadium. The Lions (8-4-6, 30 points) came from a goal down in the second half on a Nani strike after conceding to Cincinnati (3-7-7, 16 points) forward Brenner in the closing minutes of the first half.
Orlando has not lost to FC Cincinnati since FCC entered the league (2-0-2) but has yet to win against the recent expansion side in their home stadium (0-0-2) with one more match to play there this season. The Lions are unbeaten in their last three (1-0-2) but still haven’t returned to their form from earlier in the season. FC Cincinnati still hasn’t won in its new home (0-3-4).
“Obviously it’s always tough, because you want to win every game,” goalkeeper Mason Stajduhar said. “We fought hard, though. We came back in the second half.”
Oscar Pareja didn’t rotate heavily, but did swap out some players from Wednesday’s match against Inter Miami. Stajduhar got his third straight start in goal, backing up a defensive line of Emmanuel Mas, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel (for the injured Antonio Carlos — concussion protocol), and Kyle Smith. Junior Urso and Uri Rosell played central midfield, with Benji Michel, Mauricio Pereyra, and Chris Mueller funneling the attack toward Tesho Akindele at the top of the formation. Nani started on the bench and Joao Moutinho returned to the match day roster, although there was no sign of Daryl Dike, Pedro Gallese, or Alexandre Pato.
Orlando City held much of the possession in the first half but did little with it. Cincinnati played defensively and the Lions didn’t do a lot to break down the hosts’ shape, opting for shots from outside the area or trying to be too fine around the top of the box and losing the ball without generating anything.
The Lions got the first opportunity in the 11th minute when Mas tried a shot from outside the area. The ball skipped in front of Kenneth Vermeer and nearly slipped underneath him for a goal.
Cincinnati’s first chance came in the 17th minute when Allan Cruz was able to sneak in down the right, but Jansson got back and made a sliding block.
Three minutes later, Mas hit an inside-out shot toward goal that Vermeer was able to snare, although it may have been drifting wide anyway.
Mas said he’s getting more comfortable in Pareja’s system and that’s allowing him to get more into the flow of the match.
“It’s a new football for me. It’s a new system,” Mas said through a club interpreter. “I think, seeing that’s the way that Oscar wants to play and he’s got the confidence to give me some minutes, that really helped me develop. It’s a system where you need minutes. You need time in the game playing with your teammates to really make it work.”
A minute after his second shot, Mas sent a dangerous cross back across the area from left to right, but the defense knocked it away before Akindele could get to it. Mas was easily Orlando’s best player in the opening half.
Mueller had a go from outside the area in the 22nd minute but hit his shot way over the bar as Orlando just didn’t seem to have any ideas on how to finish an attack.
In the 27th minute, both teams fashioned a chance. Brenner had his shot blocked by Jansson and it fell for Yuya Kubo, who fired well over the crossbar. The Lions somehow got the ball to Akindele behind the defense seconds later (the broadcast didn’t show how) and he was 1-v-1 against Vermeer, who made an outstanding save to preserve the 0-0 score.
Two Lions got in each other’s way on the ensuing corner and it appeared Mas got his head to it, but the confusion made him send it wide. Mas then served in a great cross in the 32nd minute to the top of the six and Smith got to it first but made a mess of his shot attempt and popped it up over the goal.
A minute later, the Lions almost paid for that miss when Luciano Acosta worked Schlegel back and forth and sent a shot just wide of the far post from the top of the area.
In the 36th minute, Pereyra sent a good ball across to the far side from the left. Mueller slipped on the play, but Smith was able to reach it before the defense closed. The right back again got his final touch completely wrong and the ball squirted harmlessly off target.
Alvaro Barreal fired a shot wide of goal in the 39th minute and moments later Rosell went down with a non-contact injury, holding his groin area. He struggled back onto the pitch on the ensuing throw-in but was obviously not moving well. Barreal got down the right and cut the ball back to Brenner who was completley unmarked and the Brazilian finished easily. It was Cincinnati’s first goal in more than three matches.
As the video shows, Rosell’s lack of mobility after the injury set up an overload on the attacking right, but on the back side no one picked up Brenner. Rosell was subbed out after the goal for Andres Perea.
“I was very upset with that moment because I thought as well that (Rosell) was hurt,” Pareja said. “When I saw him walking back to the field — sometimes that happens with a player. It was almost the last two or three minutes in the half. I’ll take that responsibility on not subbing right away.”
Pareja said he’d hoped they could get to halftime and not have to use up one of their three substitution stoppages but dropping Pereyra deeper didn’t work on the play and he had no choice but to then send Perea on for Rosell.
Orlando held a possession advantage (51.4%-48.6%) and passed more accurately (87.8%-86.1%) in the first half, but a late flurry by FC Cincinnati had the hosts ahead on shot attempts (8-7), although Orlando got more on frame (3-1). Each team won one corner.
Pareja let the second half play out for 10 minutes and then brought on a triple substitution, sending Nani, Moutinho, and Ruan on for Michel, Mas, and Smith. Mas had been his most productive offensive player all night but he’s still likely a little short of 90-minute match fit and Nani works well down the left with the Portuguese left back.
Just a minute after Nani came on, he tied the game. A terrible no-look pass in his own half by Cruz ended up on the foot of Orlando’s captain instead. Nani dribbled toward the top of the area and sent a shot just inside the right post to even the score with his ninth goal of the season in the 56th minute. It was the captain’s 15th goal involvement in 15 appearances in 2021.
Orlando went for the kill in the moments right after the goal. Mueller ended up with the ball on the right and he blasted a shot but Vermeer was able to fight it off in the 57th minute. A minute later, Urso got into the box and went down as he was set to tee up a shot but referee Fotis Bazakos wasn’t interested in his penalty shout. Ruan won a corner on the other side just seconds later and the cross found Akindele’s head but his redirect was just over the bar.
Cincinnati had to sub Vermeer out a few minutes later, as the keeper went down holding his quad, and Przemyslaw Tyton entered the match. That delay seemed to break Orlando’s momentum and allowed the hosts to settle down a bit. The game opened up and FCC seemed to generate the better opportunities on the counter. Cruz fired over the bar in the 66th and Brenner did likewise from a tight angle in the 73rd.
Mueller nearly sent Akindele in behind just seconds after the restart from Brenner’s miss but new Cincinnati defender Geoff Cameron poked the ball away at the last second as the forward was preparing to shoot.
Brenner sent another shot just inches wide in the 75th minute before Orlando won a series of corners, but the Lions could do nothing with them.
Pareja sent Joey DeZart into the match for Urso in the 83rd minute with his final substitution, but would have liked to have made an attacking sub late. He said the injury to Rosell forced his hand to go a different way.
“The substitution early in the middle just took away the possibility, for example, to bring (on) Silvester (van der Water) or Alex (Alvarado). That was in my plans just to finish stronger up front,” Pareja said.
DeZart got into the box in the 88th minute and went down after contact but again Bazakos wasn’t interested. That was the last promising opportunity for Orlando other than some forays down the right that fizzled when Ruan either waited too long to cross or just sent a low ball blindly into traffic with his runners on the far side.
Cincinnati fashioned a chance to win the game in stoppage time. Forward Isaac Atanga was either offside or just held on by Moutinho and the ball found its way through to him. He dribbled into the area and Stajduhar came off his line, made himself big, and deflected the ball away for Jansson to clear in the 94th minute.
“I first thought he was offside — it’s what it looked like — but I guess he wasn’t,” Stajduhar said. “I just wanted to stay patient, stay up, wait for him to make a move, make him do something. The last second I went to spread and luckily got a piece of it. Robin was there to sweep it up, clean it up.”
Orlando saw out the ensuing corner and the match was over.
The more open second half allowed Cincinnati to out-shoot Orlando 17-13, although the Lions got more attempts on goal (5-2). Orlando also held more possession (53.8%-46.2%), earned more corners (6-2), and passed more accurately (87%-84.1%) but could only manage a single goal.
“I think we leave a little bit angry about the result,” Mas said. “We came in today to take the three points. I think that’s the beautiful thing about MLS is that every team is competitive. You can’t take a day off. You can’t relax on any particular game because there are so many irregularities that if you don’t come in and give your best effort, then any team can take the three points.”
“There’s no easy game in MLS, but you want to win every game you play,” Stajduhar said. “I think it’s just keep doing that next little step, get us over the hump, and get back in the win column.”
Next up for Orlando City is a Leagues Cup matchup at home against Santos Laguna on Thursday, Aug. 12. It’s the Lions’ first international competition and a big moment in club history.
Opinion
Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024
Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/OCvMontreal-LeaguesCup-2024.07.26-29-1-scaled.jpg)
Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?
The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.
For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.
Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.
It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.
Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.
Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.
Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.
Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.
Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 9/6/24
Amanda Allen loaned to Lexington SC, Alex Morgan announces retirement, USMNT prepares for Canada, and more.
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Happy Friday! I don’t have many plans this weekend, but am still looking forward to the next few days after a hectic week. When not working, I plan on finally starting Book of Night by Holly Black and figuring out how to make the most out of some dark rum I was gifted. For now though, let’s get to today’s links from around the soccer world!
Amanda Allen Loaned to Lexington SC
The Orlando Pride have loaned forward Amanda Allen to Lexington SC for the remainder of the USL Super League season. This decision should give Allen some valuable minutes, and the loan includes a right to recall as well. The 19-year-old has made 17 appearances since joining the Pride and had an assist in this year’s season opener. She is also currently in Colombia for the U-20 Women’s World Cup and her Canada squad takes on Brazil tonight. Hopefully she’s able to tear it up in the USL Super League’s inaugural season.
Alex Morgan Announces Her Retirement
American forward Alex Morgan has announced that she will retire after the San Diego Wave’s match on Sunday. She also announced that she is pregnant with her second child.
In her 224 international appearances, Morgan scored 123 goals and was a major force behind the USWNT’s back-to-back World Cup victories in 2015 and 2019. At the club level, she has played in every year of the NWSL’s existence and joined the Orlando Pride ahead of their inaugural season in 2016. In her six years in Orlando, Morgan recorded 23 goals and 10 assists in 69 appearances. Off the field, she’s been an outspoken supporter of equality and increased investment in women’s sports. We wish her the best of luck after a legendary career.
USMNT Faces Canada on Saturday
The United States Men’s National Team will take on Canada on Saturday in Kansas City in the first of two friendlies this month. Plenty has changed since the U.S. beat Canada in a penalty shootout in the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup quarterfinals, particularly on the sideline. American coach Jesse Marsch was hired by Canada in May, while the U.S. will be led by Mikey Varas in an interim capacity amid buzz that Mauricio Pochettino will take over. The U.S. is without Giovanni Reyna for these friendlies due to injury, with Cade Cowell replacing him. Canada boasts a talented roster that includes a trio of former Lions in Cyle Larin, Richie Laryea, and Kamal Miller. After this match, the USMNT will take on New Zealand on Tuesday.
Keeping Up With International Soccer
San Marino may be one of the smallest countries in the world, but it arguably had the biggest win of a busy day of international soccer after beating Liechtenstein 1-0 for its first competitive victory. Elsewhere in the UEFA Nations League, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia, while Spain was held to a scoreless draw in Serbia.
The third round of AFC World Cup qualifying is underway and Australia was upset 1-0 at home by Bahrain. Japan suffered no such setback though, dominating China in a 7-0 home win. Palestine drew 0-0 against South Korea in Seoul, which is no easy task.
CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifiers have also resumed, and Bolivia came up with a huge 4-0 win in high altitude against Venezuela to move up the table. We may see some Lions in action today. Facundo Torres and Uruguay take on Paraguay, while Pedro Gallese, Wilder Cartagena, and Peru host Colombia.
Free Kicks
- FC Cincinnati’s Luca Orellano won MLS Goal of the Matchday for scoring from nearly 80 yards out to beat CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois. Orlando’s Facundo Torres placed second in the voting for his volleyed strike against Nashville SC.
- NJ/NY Gotham FC forward Ella Stevens was named NWSL Player of the Month after recording three goals and two assists in August.
- Argentina beat Brazil in blind soccer at the Paralympics, ending Brazil’s unbeaten streak that has lasted the past 20 years. France and Argentina will face off in the gold medal game on Saturday.
- Chris Jurasek has stepped down as Chelsea’s chief executive after a year in the position, with Jason Gannon replacing him.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season
A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CityReper83124-42.jpg)
We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.
The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:
- Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
- Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
- At Columbus (1.96, second)
- At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
- Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
- At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
- Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)
As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.
In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.
In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)
New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Last-7-Games-1024x257.png)
A few takeaways from this chart:
- I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
- That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
- Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
- Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.
During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Possible-7-Game-Results.png)
Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.
Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.
No, that loss still stunk.
Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Algorithm-1024x262.png)
That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Rank-Order.png)
Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.
I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.
While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.
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