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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Final Score 2-1 as Lions Pull Off Comeback Road Victory

Antonio Carlos and Duncan McGuire led the Lions to a comeback victory in Atlanta.

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1 year ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City conceded first but goals by Antonio Carlos and Duncan McGuire brought the Lions back for a 2-1 win over Atlanta United at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Caleb Wiley put the hosts ahead but Orlando City (10-6-7, 37 points) showed resiliency to come from behind and then hold off a furious rally attempt late by Atlanta (9-7-8, 35 points).

It was just Orlando’s second road win in the all-time series and paid the Five Stripes back for them stealing a late point at Exploria Stadium back in May. The Lions leapfrogged Atlanta in the Eastern Conference standings and hold a game in hand.

“I saw today a lot of character on the field with a team that had a tough experience over the past weekend,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “And today coming to Atlanta this game was important for our confidence. It was important for the standings but for our confidence too.”

Pareja kept the same lineup from the last couple of games, with Pedro Gallese in goal behind a back line of Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Carlos, and Kyle Smith. Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena played central midfield behind an attacking line of Ivan Angulo, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres, with McGuire up top.

The Lions started quickly and created a good chance in the first minute. McGuire slipped Pereyra in behind the defense but the captain’s first touch was poor on the carpet and that allowed Brad Guzan to come off his line and challenge the shot. He was able to make the save from close range.

Torres tried a shot from distance but leaned back and got well under it in the fifth minute. McGuire and Araujo sent soft shots at Guzan in the sixth and eighth minutes, respectively.

Santos’ long ball for McGuire looked to put the rookie in behind the defense but he was called for a foul when Juan Jose Purata went down easily, baiting the referee into a call.

Orlando relaxed its pressure after the quick start and Atlanta held more possession and got some rhythm, but mistakes by the Lions created their own biggest problems. A poor pass by Smith was easily blocked by a defender right in front of him and it ignited the break in the 17th minute. Brooks Lennon sent in a dangerous cross through the six but none of his teammates could get onto it.

“It was hard to keep (the press) there all the time, but we really wanted to set the tone of the game in the beginning,” Pareja said.

The hosts took the lead five minutes later on a comedy of errors by Orlando. A poor throw-in play turned the ball over deep in the Lions’ end and when the ball got away, it appeared multiple Orlando players could have intervened and taken possession but no one did. Atlanta retained possession and a shot dribbled through Gallese. Carlos cleared it off the line but it went to Wiley who fired it home in the 22nd minute. Smith was caught ball watching on the play as Wiley was the only dangerous player in his area but he paid him no attention.

The Lions managed a quick response. Pereyra stood over a free kick from the left side and sent a good cross into the box. Carlos was headed toward goal, but changed directions and attacked the ball in the air, winning his battle and powering a header into the back of the net in the 25th minute. It was a rare set piece goal for the 2023 Lions and the first goal by an Orlando City center back this season.

“I am really happy to have scored that goal. It’s a goal that I’ve been after all season for quite some time,” Carlos said through a club interpreter. “I’ve come really close. Some other goalkeepers have made some really incredible saves to deny that goal, but finally it went in. I’m very happy to not only have scored, but to help the team defensively as well. And I’m just thrilled that we were able to pick up all three points.”

The goal seemed to give Orlando confidence. McGuire tried to catch Guzan off his line in the 33rd minute but the rookie’s shot was well off target. Two minutes later, a nice give-and-go ended with a blast by Angulo that skipped just inches wide of the left post.

Smith tried a shot from outside the area in the 42nd minute but it was just over the bar and Guzan let it go when he saw it was rising. That was the last look of the half but Orlando picked up two late yellow cards to Cartagena and Jansson — the latter after the halftime whistle.

Atlanta finished the half with more possession (52.1%-47.9%) and corners (2-0), while Orlando City had more shots (7-5) and shots on target (3-2) and passed more accurately (81.3%-78.2%).

The second half started more cautiously than the first but several of Orlando’s attacks broke down because Smith kept trying to pass the ball through opponents or left crosses short. It was a night of struggles in the attack for the veteran fullback.

The first chance of the second period came off Orlando’s first corner kick of the game, won by Angulo. Pereyra’s ball in hit off of McGuire, took a deflection, and then dribbled slowly toward goal and went inches wide of the right post in the 51st minute.

Just after that chance, Gallese bowled the ball to Smith, who seemed to see Wiley coming up behind him but lost the ball in his own end anyway. Orlando survived the turnover. Atlanta then won a corner and although the Lions cleared the initial danger, Santiago Sosa chipped a ball onto the roof of the net in the 55th minute.

The Lions took the lead at the hour mark. Pereyra sent in a gorgeous ball to send McGuire behind the back line. The rookie held off a defender while slotting home his team-leading eighth goal past Guzan to make it 2-1.

Derrick Etienne Jr. tried to pull McGuire’s goal right back but sent his effort over Gallese’s crossbar.

The Lions came within inches of an insurance goal in the 68th minute. Torres was sent down the right side and used his weaker right foot to send an excellent cross to the top of the six. Substitute Ramiro Enrique got his head to it but smashed it off the left post.

Matheus Rossetto had a go from distance in the 70th minute when Orlando gave him space but his blast was over the bar.

Pareja changed formations to try to see out the game, sending on Rodrigo Schlegel, Martin Ojeda, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson for Pereyra, Torres, and Smith. The hosts, needing a goal, brought on Edwin Mosquera and Designated Player Giorgos Giakoumakis.

Playing a five-man back line, Orlando got pinned back over the final 20 minutes of the game, plus an extreme amount of stoppage time from referee Victor Rivas. The defensive block was pushed too deep but Araujo and Cartagena did a good job of maintaining their concentration whenever league MVP candidate Thiago Almada tried to play the ball into dangerous areas or came forward himself, looking for a shot.

The Five Stripes were able to pile up lots of set pieces down the stretch but the Lions defended them much better than the ones a week ago at Real Salt Lake.

Just past the 80th minute, Atlanta got a couple of looks but Orlando defenders were there to block them and clean up the rebounds. Almada tried to tie the game himself in the 88th minute, working his way inside the top of the box but his shot took a deflection and bounced weakly to Gallese. Rossetto again found some space outside the area in the 90th minute but hit his shot similarly over the bar.

Time wound down and five minuts of injury time were added but Rivas allowed nearly double that amount in the end, despite only one sub being made and a fairly normal amount of time-wasting gamesmanship. That was nearly enough time to allow Atlanta to tie the match.

Although Gallese had little to do in the game but a foul against Almada gave Atlanta a free kick from a dangerous area. Almada went for goal and fired a good shot on target, but Gallese made a huge diving save going to his left to preserve the lead in the 99th minute.

Rivas then allowed Atlanta to take the ensuing corner but Orlando was able to clear it wide and the final whistle mercifully came at last.

The late spell of attacking pressure helped Atlanta take a commanding lead in possession (59.2%-40.8%), corners (7-1), and shot attempts (17-10), but the Lions equaled the hosts’ four shots on target for the match. Atlanta was also able to build an advantage in passing accuracy (84%-76.3%) as the Lions lumped the ball into space rather than trying to pick each other out in traffic.

“We knew that this was going to be a tough game. We knew that after the goal that Atlanta were going to go after the game. They were going to attack. They were going to go all in on the game,” Carlos said. “

“Obviously in the last 15 minutes we defended more than we wanted,” Pareja said. “All the credit for the players. They showed character. I’m very proud.”

The Lions get a break from MLS play until Aug. 20, when they’ll visit the Chicago Fire. However, Orlando City will be back in action on Friday night at home against the Houston Dynamo in Leagues Cup group stage play. Game time is 8 p.m.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

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2 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

4 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

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7 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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