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Orlando City vs. CF Montreal: Five Takeaways

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3 years ago

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Orlando City struck first in Wednesday night’s 1-1 draw vs. Montreal but couldn’t close the deal, splitting the points in a crucial Eastern Conference playoff race match. The Lions could end up regretting not taking all three points at home with two games left at Exploria Stadium — against the top two teams in the conference — along with trips to Columbus and Montreal down the stretch. Other results from the midweek games prevented the dropped points from being as costly as they could have been, but that was also a missed opportunity to improve positioning by leaping Philadelphia.

What did we learn from a frustrating result on a night the Lions perhaps deserved more?

Close, But No Cigar

If there’s one phrase that sums up Orlando City’s offense against Montreal Wednesday night it’s the one in the subhead above. The Lions were so close to scoring a number of times, especially in the first half, but couldn’t quite knock the door down until Chris Mueller’s goal in the 45th minute. One goal against Montreal wasn’t enough like it was Saturday night in Cincinnati. Some of the credit for that has to go to the visitors, who blocked or deflected several Orlando shots. One of those deflections cost Junior Urso a goal as the shot smacked off the crossbar. Another cost Ruan a potential winning goal. Ruan had to go for that loose ball in the box although had he left it, Nani was lurking with a head of steam (and a much better eye for goal). Daryl Dike headed a Benji Michel cross just over the crossbar in the first half and Mauricio Pereyra found space at the top of the box but guided his shot just left of the goal. Orlando has struggled to finish in games throughout the season and that lack of sharpness costs points in games like this.

Boxed In

As the clock wound down after Montreal equalized, the visitors were only too happy to accept their point and stay patient in case an opportunity came to break in transition for a winner. Montreal’s five-man back line and tightly compacted lines took away space and forced Orlando to be perfect to play through during the closing minutes, and the Lions couldn’t be perfect. Again, you have to credit the other side sometimes. Montreal has come to Orlando twice and played two solid matches, taking four of a possible six points out of Exploria Stadium. The Lions had their chances earlier in the game to prevent the bunker from being a problem late, when legs were heavy. By not finishing, it allowed Montreal to go into its shell to preserve a needed road point.

Papi Went for It

Anyone who says Orlando City was happy with a draw last night will have to fight me. Oscar Pareja wanted those three points and his substitutions showed that. Pareja brought on Nani, Alexandre Pato, Tesho Akindele, and Silvester van der Water in an effort to put fresh legs on the pitch to go for the win. While it didn’t work out, putting those particular players out there against a defense that had been forced to work hard for much of the game was a sound strategy. Nani could have had another iconic, game-winning moment if he’d been able to get Ruan to leave him that juicy rebound of the Dike effort in the 76th minute.

One Foot Won’t Work

With the way Mueller has struggled offensively throughout the season, some people have been calling for more of van der Water in the starting lineup. The Dutchman has shown some flashes of brilliance and a magical left foot at times in 2021 and looks to have a solid future in the game. But teams have seen him on film and there’s an obvious flaw in his game. Van der Water is a one-footed player. He’s not the only one. As a Manchester United fan, I used to become frustrated with Antonio Valencia at right back because when teams overplayed his strong foot, he was largely useless and didn’t know what to do, so he’d pass back and reset the whole attack rather than cut in on his weaker foot — often when numbers were advantageous to do so. Former Lion Mohamed El-Munir was mainly a one-footed left back in his time in Orlando.

On Wednesday, van der Water’s introduction made the Lions easier to defend on the right. Mueller could go either direction and was unpredictable. But van der Water wouldn’t go right. Kamal Miller knew this and overplayed him to his left side. Often this forced van der Water to play negative balls backward to reset the attack, but sometimes the Dutchman simply forced something on his left foot and conceded possession as a result. Other teams will do this, so he’s going to have to start using his right foot more or swap sides so he can get into wide areas and play balls in for his teammates.

Cash-ing In

It had been a long wait for a Mueller goal. Last year’s most dangerous Lion has had a rocky 2021 season and only last night did he equal his career-low season in goals, scoring his third to match his rookie year of 2018. It was great to see him get the monkey off his back and he scored what should have been a morale-boosting goal heading into halftime. That’s not the way it ultimately played out but Mueller goals are a critical piece of the offense that the team has been missing in 2021, so hopefully that was the start of a hot streak for the Money Badger.

Mueller now has three goals and five assists in 2021 after piling up 10 goals and seven assists in four fewer games a year ago. It became clear in last night’s postgame press conference that this has been a difficult season for Mueller, who sounded like he’d rather be in Scotland with his new team and is only here because the Lions couldn’t work out a deal with the SPL side to their liking to release him early.

“I can’t imagine that you are aware of what’s been going on with me, obviously, in my situation with the club, so ultimately I think that makes things a bit more difficult,” Mueller told the media. “But, nonetheless, I’ve just continued to push myself every day and continue to try and be positive and be happy where I can help the team, and just jump in and support my teammates, be there for my teammates, be there for myself, learn a lot about myself through what’s been, like I said, a tough process for me to handle everything that’s been going on.”

Mueller has been one of the most memorable and hard-working players Orlando City has had since joining MLS and his time with the club is almost over. He’s a popular player and the fans will miss him. It’s tough to see a second fan favorite — and yes, Cyle Larin was a fan favorite until the manner of his exit soured part of the fan base on him — in a situation with Orlando City that clearly isn’t making him happy. The front office must do a better job of being a player-friendly organization. While the club shouldn’t just give away top assets for nothing, it also shouldn’t have come to that. Unhappy players don’t play their best and we’ve seen a perfect example of that this year.

We’ll see if Mueller can put aside his off-the-field feelings about his exit in the team’s final playoff push and end on a hot streak.

That’s what I saw on Wednesday night. What stood out to you? Let us know in the comments.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

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13 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

15 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

Published

19 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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