Orlando City scored three goals Saturday night against Columbus, marking the seventh time in the last 12 games that the Lions had scored at least three goals in an MLS match. Unfortunately, the team gave up four goals in the loss, leading me to want to spend some time this week looking at the defense again to see if this game was just an aberration, playing against one of the best teams in MLS in their home stadium, or if as the team goes into its final stretch of four games against one elite team (FC Cincinnati) and three teams fighting for their playoff lives (FC Dallas, Philadelphia Union, Atlanta United) there is something still to be ironed out before Lions start their playoff run, assuming they make it.

Let’s start with just some basic numbers, and right away we will see that the performance recently has actually been an improvement from the beginning part of the season, even with four goals against in the most recent match:

This is where it might be fair to bring out the famous saying of “don’t make a mountain out of a molehill,” and point to the fact that the Lions earned shutouts in each of the three games prior to the Columbus match. I will point out that those teams the Lions shut out are ranked 23rd, 27th, and 15th overall in the MLS standings as a counter, but I do concede that one game is the smallest of small samples. So, let’s expand that one-game sample and look at how Orlando City has done against its opponents based on how they rank in MLS in terms of the full league standings (the first two rows are subsets of the third row):

This is not surprising. The teams ranked higher in the full league standings are ranked higher for a reason — specifically that they frequently score more goals than their opponents. It is not a surprise then that Orlando City gives up more goals against those good teams than against teams ranked lower in the standings and also has most of its shutouts against weaker teams as well. However, in the context of whether there is still something to be ironed out, yes, there is something, because once the playoffs start, every team will be good and Orlando City is giving up an average of two goals per game against the top half of MLS.

There is a story behind every goal that a team gives up, so while we have statistics that we can look at around the defense and the goalkeeping, it is never as clear and clean as data from baseball or cricket, for example, when every pitch/bowled ball can be looked at in isolation. That said, Orlando City has given up zero own goals this season, meaning every ball into the Lions’ net came on a shot, and fbref.com has a ton of information about all of those shots that we can look at (note: MLS Avg = the average for every other team except Orlando City; red means a number is worse than league average and green means better than league average):

I had three major takeaways from this data:

1. Either Orlando City’s defense has choked off opposition shots this season against good teams or the better teams are just more judicious with the shots they take, but there is a stark difference in shots allowed per 90 minutes for the games against higher performing teams vs. lower performing teams.
2. Teams towards the top of the standings take fewer shots when they play Orlando City but put a significantly higher percentage of their shots on target when they do get their shots off. Orlando City’s opponents in the Top 10 row above were Inter Miami (twice), Columbus (twice), LAFC, and FC Cincinnati. While those teams each are better than league average in shots on target overall (45.3%, 35.6%, 37.4%, and 37.5% respectively), when they played Orlando City, they looked like Olympic archers, putting everything on target with a 44.4% average.
3. The scariest numbers for me are the percentages of shots on target that turn into goals against good teams. Good teams clearly must have goal scorers, but more than half of the shots that go on target go in? Orlando City has some pretty talented offensive players, and they score a goal on 34% of the shots they put on target. The teams in the Top 5 row above are nearly twice as efficient as that when they play Orlando City, and that is not great, Bob. Or not great, anyone.

Going back to what I wrote earlier, it is exceedingly difficult to place the blame for any goal fairly on a per-player or per-positional-grouping basis. It’s like the butterfly effect. Every action prior has a link in the chain. Perhaps in some future article I’ll use Markov Chains to analyze the chains that lead up to goals to determine their likelihood, and I know all readers will be as enthralled as my high school students were when I taught Markov Chains in Precalculus. They were. I swear.

I think a common reaction for a lot of people when they see those percentages in red above is to think wow, Pedro Gallese must be having a rough season, since such a high percentage of shots on goal become goals. I do think that Gallese is not having an elite season, but it is completely fair to point out that he has had little to no chance on a large percentage of the goals he has given up. As our Mane Land PawedCast hosts Michael Citro and Dave Rohe often say, “¿Por que no los dos?”, as it very much can be on Pedro and on the defense for allowing point-blank shots.

Looking at the four goals from Saturday, as I did in the Five Takeaways and Sean Rollins did in the Player Grades, it is hard to blame Gallese for any of the four goals Columbus scored. Two of the goals were from absolute point-blank range with no defenders between the scorer and the goal, one took a deflection, and the other was smoked into the lower corner.

PSxG, not to be confused with PSG, which used to be everyone’s other favorite team when Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappé were there, stands for post-shot e(X)pected goals and is a measure that includes the location of the shot as well as how well the ball was struck to create a percentage chance that a shot will become a goal. I like this stat, because it includes an independent evaluation of how well the player shot the ball, which makes me more confident in this metric as opposed to plain expected goals (xG), which just uses the location of the shot, no matter how well the ball was hit.

The four goals against Columbus were, in order of when they happened in the game: 0.70, 0.98, 0.61, and 0.78 for their PSxG value. You’ll remember from math class that 0.70 is the same as 70%, and so all four goals from Columbus were on shots where Gallese was at best 39% likely to have made the save on the shot. That is not to say that El Pulpo could not have made the save, as he has made saves on even more difficult shots the past, but unlike in The Hunger Games, the odds were forever not in his favor on those four shots on Saturday.

Gallese has not had a great year in terms of making those elite saves, or really saves in general. During the last three seasons (2022, 2023, and 2024 YTD) there have been 119 goalkeeper seasons of at at least 500 minutes (i.e. Gallese’s 2022, 2023, and 2024 seasons are three of the 119). His 2024 season save percentage of 64.5% ranks 96th of 119 seasons and 29th in MLS this season, and his 2024 (stay with me here) PSxG-GA90 (fancy acronym for post-shot eXpected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes — the more positive the number, the better the goalkeeper is doing at saving shots that were expected to be goals) is -0.08, which ranks 79th of 119 seasons and 30th in MLS this season and indicates that Gallese is actually not saving as many shots as “expected” by the analysts from Opta who track the shots.

Those stats do not flatter Gallese, but how many of those shots could he really have saved or should he have saved? There is not yet a clear stat for that yet. PSxG is probably the closest to that, but it is still pretty subjective as it is a human who evaluates how well a shot was struck and the likelihood of it going into the net. Save percentage is not subjective, but no analyst would use that measure as a definitive characterization of a goalkeeper’s worth. The eye test is by definition subjective, and goalkeepers also do a lot more than just saving shots anyway. I still believe Orlando City has a strong goalkeeper, and even if he is not performing near the top of the MLS statistical charts, I do not think by any means that Gallese is the primary reason for the struggles against the better teams.

I believe the unsatisfactory answer for whether something needs to be ironed out is “yes, but something is actually a lot of things.” Orlando City’s best win all season, in terms of beating a team ranked high in the MLS standings, is the recent win against Charlotte FC, which is 15th best in MLS. In their seven matches against teams rated 14th or better, the Lions have taken two points from a possible 21, and have been outscored 20-7. When they play good teams, the defense needs to tighten up, and the offense needs to score more than one goal per game, or else all of a sudden it is going to be the off-season. The next test against a top team will be at FC Cincinnati on Oct. 5 and then in the playoffs, though the Lions still need to earn some points to ensure that they qualify.

Providing the Lions qualify, Orlando City will have to defeat top teams to advance and compete for MLS Cup. As with any playoff system, all that really matters is that you qualify, and then how you did in the regular season does not matter, and the best team on the day advances. Orlando City has not shown thus far this season that it can beat an elite team, but it has shown that it can play well for stretches. The Lions tied the best team in the league and kept it close against the teams ranked second and third.

The old saying is that defense wins championships. Let’s hope the Lions can make some adjustments and defend against the top teams the way they have against everyone else.

For much of the season, Orlando City has only had two legitimate strikers available. It was either Duncan McGuire or Ramiro Enrique, depending on availability and who had the hot foot. In the last few matches, Luis Muriel has come on strong, including scoring a brace against the Columbus Crew.

So, which striker should get the start up top against FC Dallas on Saturday?

Duncan McGuire

McGuire got the last start against Columbus and was held in check during his time on the pitch. He only managed 12 touches and one off-target shot. It wasn’t a great night from McGuire, but to be fair, he wasn’t the only one having trouble in the first half, and he had scored in his previous two matches.

FC Dallas is not the Columbus Crew, though the team does have some height on the back line. Having a big guy like McGuire able to go toe to toe with Sebastien Ibeagha, Omar Gonzalez, and Marco Farfan would be helpful. McGuire does have a nose for goal, and he won’t get pushed around inside the box.

Ramiro Enrique

Enrique came off the bench for McGuire against the Crew, and he started the comeback attempt for the Lions. His strike was a poacher’s goal, but they all count the same. He put himself in the right position to get that goal, which is definitely one of his skills as a striker. He’s a bit sneaky inside the box, allowing him to get goals like that.

The issue with Enrique is his size. He can certainly get knocked off the ball and has almost no chance of winning a header against Dallas’ back line. That being said, he has improved greatly, and did not play as many minutes as McGuire did in the previous match.

Luis Muriel

For most of the season, Orlando City supporters wondered if the front office made a mistake bringing in Muriel. It can take time for players outside of MLS to get a feel for the league. Sometimes it takes way longer than we hope. I had just about given up on Muriel, if I’m being honest, but it seems to have finally clicked for him in the last few matches.

Muriel earned a brace against the Crew, and he really should get an assist on Enrique’s goal. The Colombian set up McGuire’s goal to seal the Charlotte game. He has looked good coming off the bench the last few matches. Has his production earned him a start against Dallas? The one issue I have is that he’s more comfortable playing a little further back. If so, does he occupy the same space as Martin Ojeda or Facundo Torres? Of course, Oscar Pareja does like the hot foot, and that foot currently belongs to Muriel.

Ultimately, I would give Duncan the start, with the hope he’s able to use his size better in the box against Dallas’ defenders. I want to know what you think, so please vote in the poll below, and let me know your reasons in the comments section.

For those of us here in Florida, Hurricane Helene is here and dumping plenty of rainfall all over the state. If affected, don’t underestimate the storm, keep your wits about you, and err on the side of caution. Hopefully it’s a smooth next couple of days for you all as we get ready for a weekend filled with soccer. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Orlando City Prepares for FC Dallas

After a loss on the road to the Columbus Crew, Orlando City will aim to bounce back when it takes on FC Dallas in Texas on Saturday. The match presents a good opportunity for both clubs, as Orlando is fighting to host in the first round of the playoffs while Dallas is five points out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference. A win in Dallas guarantees a place in the playoffs for the Lions, although there are various scenarios in which the Lions can still clinch if they lose or draw. Head Coach Oscar Pareja, who coached FC Dallas for five years after stints there as an assistant coach, spoke on the team’s mentality heading into this match at his old stomping ground.

Alex Freeman Named MLS NEXT Pro Player of the Matchweek

Orlando City B clinched a spot in the MLS NEXT Pro playoffs after a 3-0 win over Chicago Fire FC II and right back Alex Freeman was honored as MLS NEXT Pro Player of the Matchweek for his role in the win. Although he didn’t score, Freeman assisted on OCB’s first and final goals of the match and helped the team secure its second consecutive shutout at home. The 20-year-old has been a major reason why the Young Lions have climbed the Eastern Conference standings, as he’s recorded five goals and four assists in their last six games.

Alyssa Naeher Will Stay in Chicago

The Chicago Red Stars have re-signed American goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher to a contract that will keep her with the club through the 2025 season. Naeher has been with the Red Stars since the 2016 season, after she was traded to the club from the Boston Breakers. The 36-year-old has started in 135 games for Chicago, and she’s the first NWSL goalkeeper to reach 50 wins with one club. At the international level, Naeher has excelled with the United States Women’s National Team and played every minute of the team’s winning campaign in this summer’s Olympics. Her contract was set to end after this season, so it’s a good move by Chicago to make sure she stays with the team.

Europa League Kicks Off

The Europa League is officially underway this week, with 36 teams participating in the revamped format. Galatasaray’s Victor Osimhen, who is on loan from Napoli, caused an own goal and had an assist in his team’s 3-1 victory against Greece’s PAOK. Manchester United was held to a 1-1 draw at Old Trafford by Dutch club FC Twente. Porto struck first against FC Bodø/Glimt but fell 3-2 to the Norwegian club despite playing a man up for the most of the second half. Lazio cruised to a 3-0 win over Dynamo Kyiv, Real Sociedad and Nice battled to a 1-1 draw, and Anderlecht held on for a 2-1 win against Ferencváros of Hungary.

Some of the matches highlighting today’s action in the tournament include AS Roma hosting Athletic Bilbao, Lyon and Olympiacos squaring off in France, and an interesting matchup between Ajax and Besiktas.

Free Kicks

• OCB returned to the top 10 of the MLS NEXT Pro power rankings, placing eighth as one of the most in-form teams in the league.
• The Columbus Crew drew Club America in the Campeones Cup, but fell in the penalty shootout after the match. Liga MX won its third Campeones Cup title, tying MLS at 3-3 over the competition’s history.
• Portland Timbers midfielder Evander won MLS Goal of the Matchday for his strike from a free kick against Real Salt Lake.
• Kylian Mbappe will be out due to a hamstring injury according to Real Madrid, although a time frame on how long he’ll be sidelined was not provided.
• Center back Raphael Varane is retiring after a career that included winning the 2018 World Cup with France and four Champions League titles with Real Madrid. The 31-year-old signed with Como in July, but sustained an injury in his only appearance with the Serie A side.
• CBS Sports ranked the top five American strikers ahead of the United States Men’s National Team’s friendlies against Panama and Mexico next month. AS Monaco’s Folarin Balogun tops the list, with Haji Wright and Josh Sargent as other options up top for the USMNT in October.
• The draw for the Carabao Cup’s fourth round is complete and Tottenham Hotspur will host Manchester City. Other intriguing matchups include Manchester United’s match against Leicester City, Brighton & Hove Albion’s game with Liverpool, and a showdown between Crystal Palace and Aston Villa.
• Speaking of the Carabao Cup, Arsenal started 16-year-old Jack Porter in goal for the team’s 5-1 win against Bolton Wanderers, making him the youngest player to ever start for Arsenal’s first team.
• Wojciech Szczęsny’s retirement may only last a month, as the 34-year-old goalkeeper will reportedly sign with Barcelona just a month after announcing his retirement. He’ll help replace Marc-Andre ter Stegen, who could miss the rest of the season after suffering a knee injury.

That’s all I have for you all today. Stay safe out there and be neighborly. Have a great Thursday!