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Orlando City

Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again

A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

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2 weeks ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.

Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.

Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com,  in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.

What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.

This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.

Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.

We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:

  • Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
  • Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
  • Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
  • Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.

Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.

The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.

I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.

Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. David

    June 14, 2024 at 10:55 am

    Great article that team statisticians need to read, digest, and interpret for the players and coaches to utilize. Stripping out the humorous asides and references to his dad’s 17, this article is full of statistical data that can help the 2024 Orlando City Lions be more consistent in getting good shots on target. Hope to see more articles like this from writers like this that know what they are talking about.

    Reply

  2. Hoganisme

    June 14, 2024 at 6:04 pm

    What a great article. I didn’t understand some of the stats, but the author explained it so I knew the point he was making.

    Reply

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Orlando City

PawedCast Episode 428: Chicago Rewind, New York City FC Preview, and More

The Lions explode for four goals but are leaky on defense again and must now go play NYCFC on its subpar pitch.

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3 hours ago

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June 26, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The Lions took on a fresh Chicago Fire team riding a rare hot streak just a couple of days after playing to a disappointing road draw on turf away from home despite having a man advantage for more than half the game. The situation didn’t appear poised to produce a season high in goals for the Lions, but that’s what happened. Facundo Torres’ brace led the way as Orlando City blasted Chicago 4-2. Despite the continuous leaks in the defense, Mason Stajduhar turned in a heroic effort in goal to help lead the Lions to just their second home win of the season.

We looked back at our score predictions, broke down the match, and made our selections for Man of the Match.

The USMNT kicked off its Copa America campaign with a shutout victory, but it wasn’t the impressive performance we were hoping for. The Yanks must play better against Panama and then brace for Uruguay.

This week’s mailbagbox wants to know if a lack of minutes is hurting rookie midfielder Jeorgio Kocevski and what kind of minutes we can expect Duncan McGuire to get at the Olympics. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.

After the mailbagbox, we looked at OCB’s matchup against Atlanta United 2 tonight. The Young Lions will have to go the rest of the season without center back Abdi Salim, who was loaned to USL Championship side Detroit City FC. Salim immediately made an impact in Detroit, scoring the only goal in a 1-0 friendly victory over Pumas.

Finally, we looked ahead to Orlando’s trip to the Bronx to face New York City FC at Yankee Stadium. We already know the field conditions aren’t ideal and that the Lions have a poor record there. But can they get a third straight result? We provide our key matchups and score predictions in our match preview.

Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.

Here’s how No. 428 went down:

0:15 – The Lions scored a season-high four goals and held off a fresher Fire squad.

31:32 – Our mailbagbox asks us about an Orlando City rookie and a USMNT striker.

45:06 – OCB hosts Atlanta tonight and the MLS Lions head north to the baseball diamond.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/26/24

Orlando City improves, Orlando Pride battle for top spot, Orlando City B in action tonight, and more.

Published

7 hours ago

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June 26, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. I have returned from my trip down to the City Beautiful having enjoyed two victories, six points, 10 total Orlando goals, and a bunch of great memories. I’m not saying that I had anything to do with the results, but I’m not, NOT saying it either.

I want to thank those listeners of The Mane Land PawedCast and all the readers of this site that I was able to meet with over the weekend. It was truly a pleasure to see you all. Now, let’s get to today’s links.

Lions Move Up in Power Rankings and Standings

It’s amazing what a 4-2 victory over the Chicago Fire can do for a team following a mid-week draw against Western Conference powerhouse LAFC. Those four points moved Orlando City up seven spots to 10th in the MLS Power Rankings. More importantly, those results have moved the Lions into 10th place in the Eastern Conference standings, and they are knocking on the door of the playoff picture. Orlando City will need to continue on this trajectory if the season is to be salvaged. Hopefully, this is the time of the season when Facundo Torres catches proverbial fire.

Pride Make Headlines

We here at The Mane Land have covered the Orlando Pride through the bad and now through the good. Now, the Pride are so good that the team is getting noticed elsewhere. The contributions of Barbra Banda and Marta are a big reason for that. The Pride are battling for the top spot with the Kansas City Current, with a showdown between the two powerhouses set for July 6. ESPN has the two teams steady, with the Current on top of its power rankings and the Pride sitting in the second spot. Banda is also in a race with Sophia Smith for the Golden Boot, with both players currently on 10 goals.

OCB in Action Tonight

Orlando City B takes on Atlanta United 2 tonight in what feels like an important match for the Young Lions. OCB will be without defender Abdi Salim as he has been loaned out to Detroit City FC, and others are on international duty or with the senior team. The Young Lions have won their last two matches against the Baby Five Stripes, or should they be called the Two-And-A-Half Stripes? Regardless, there will still be plenty to watch in this MLS NextPro match.

Copa America Rolls On

Pedro Gallese and Wilder Cartagena both got the start for Peru in a 1-0 loss to Canada and former Lions Cyle Larin, Richie Laryea, and Kamal Miller. Peru was playing a man down after Miguel Araujo was shown a red card in the 59th minute. The match also saw a linesman collapse from the heat and be taken off by the medical staff.

The USMNT is back in action on Thursday against Panama at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Yanks have a winning record against Panama, and a win over Panama will go a long way to helping the U.S. advance since there is a match against Uruguay still to come. Here is everything you need to know ahead of the match.

Euros Entertain as Group Stage Nears End

The UEFA European Championship matches were a mixed bag on Tuesday. France and Poland played to a 1-1 draw, meaning France placed second in the group behind Austria. Kylian Mbappé scored first for France on a penalty kick, but Robert Lewandowski evened the match with his own penalty kick goal to earn a point for Poland. Speaking of Austria, it earned first place in Group D with a 3-2 victory over the Netherlands. I don’t think anyone had Austria beating the Netherlands, let alone topping the group, on their bingo cards, but here we are.

The later matches were not nearly as fun to watch, with England and Slovenia playing to a 0-0 draw. The other match was equally exciting, as Denmark and Serbia also played to a 0-0 draw. Despite the results, England, Denmark, and Slovenia all advance to the knockout round, with England topping the group.

Free Kicks

  • Portland Thorns and USWNT midfielder Olivia Moultrie is out due to injury. As such, she is unlikely to make the Olympic roster.
  • Brazilian fans are mad after Brazil’s 0-0 draw with Costa Rica. They now agree with Ronaldinho’s pre-tournament assessment of the squad.
  • Much to the consternation of many Manchester United supporters — and the joy of other club’s supporters — Erik ten Hag is set to sign a new contract for Manchester United.
  • Keep your eyes peeled for the USWNT Olympic roster dropping today.
  • Finally, congratulations to the Pride’s Cori Dyke on receiving the Big Ten Medal of Honor.

That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for the Orlando City match this Friday and the Orlando Pride match on Sunday. Don’t forget to check out the OCB match later tonight as well. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/25/24

Two Lions earn recognition, Brianna Martinez signs new contract, two Californian teams fire coaches, and more.

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1 day ago

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June 25, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

It was a good weekend to be an Orlando soccer fan as the Orlando Pride and Orlando City combined to score 10 goals in the team’s two games, while taking all six points. Things aren’t going to slow down this week, as all three of Orlando’s teams are in action, and the United States Men’s National Team will play its second match of Copa America. Let’s jump into today’s links.

Lions Make MLS Team of the Matchday

A pair of Lions were rightfully rewarded for their performances in Orlando City’s 4-2 win over the Chicago Fire with a place in the MLS Team of the Matchday. Facundo Torres gets the nod in the midfield, while Mason Stajduhar was chosen between the sticks. Torres hit a pair of missiles from distance to spark OCSC’s offense to its highest goal output of the season. Stajduhar’s 10 saves tied a club record while helping the Lions get over the line with all three points secured. Nic Josey gave Stajduhar and Torres an 8 and 8.5 out of 10, respectively, in his player grades from the match‘, and it’s nice to see the duo get the recognition they deserve. Here’s hoping there’s more to come.

Brianna Martinez Signs New Contract

The Orlando Pride announced they have signed defender Brianna Martinez to a new two-year contract. That means she’ll be at the club through the end of the 2025 season, as the Pride got their business done early and ensured it has one less item to take care of in the off-season. Martinez has played in 12 games this season, starting in nine of them, so Orlando is locking up a developing player, who’s been an important part of the team’s success this season.

Californian Coaching Carousel Keeps Spinning

Coaching is a profession with no room for sentimentality, as was proven on Monday when a pair of California teams parted ways with their skippers. First up, the San Jose Earthquakes are comfortably the worst team in Major League Soccer, and club leadership decided to make a change by firing Luchi Gonzalez. Considering the Earthquakes are on 11 points through 19 games, with 51 goals conceded, it’s hard to argue with the decision. On the other hand, unless ownership invests more in the squad, simply changing the coach likely won’t make enough of a difference. Regardless, Ian Russell has been named interim coach, and faces a tough task in trying to reverse San Jose’s fortunes.

Moving down the coast by a few hundred miles, the San Diego Wave executed a much more shocking move by firing Casey Stoney. After 14 matches, the Wave are just one point outside a playoff position, but they’ve also scored a paltry 12 goals and haven’t won a game since beating the league-worst Utah Royals 2-0 all the way back on May 8. Winning the NWSL Shield last year and making a semifinal playoff appearance in each of the team’s first two seasons weren’t enough to keep her at the helm, and she’s been replaced by Paul Buckle as interim coach.

Euro & Copa America Updates

It was another exciting day of action in both Euro 2024 and Copa America play, so let’s catch up on everything that took place. In the Euros, Spain grabbed an early goal from Ferran Torres and coasted to a comfortable 1-0 win over an Albanian side that gave a good account of itself at the tournament. Spain won all three of its group games and advanced atop of Group B. Meanwhile, Croatia looked sure to advance in second place thanks to a goal from Luka Modric, but Italian substitute Mattia Zaccagni scored a beautiful curler with the last kick of the game to level the match at 1-1, break Croatian hearts, and send Italy through with four points to Croatia’s two.

Moving stateside, James Rodriguez pulled the strings for Colombia as a sea of yellow in Houston cheered Los Cafeteros to a 2-1 win over Paraguay. Rodriguez had two first-half assists to propel Colombia to its ninth straight win across all competitions. In the later game, Brazil and Costa Rica battled to a physical 0-0 draw in Los Angeles. Brazil had 73% of possession, and took 19 shots to Costa Rica’s two, but only put three shots on target and ultimately couldn’t find a way past Patrick Sequeira.

Free Kicks

That’s all I have for you today. Vamos Orlando!

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