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Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again

A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

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12 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.

Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.

Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com,  in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.

What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.

This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.

Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.

We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:

  • Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
  • Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
  • Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
  • Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.

Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.

The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.

I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.

Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/6/25

Alex Freeman called up for Concacaf Gold Cup, Orlando Pride get ready for the Houston Dash, Orlando City B plays tonight, and more.

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2 hours ago

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June 6, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Happy Friday! I’ll be spending this weekend celebrating my birthday by beating my friends at mini golf with no mercy but still hope to catch some soccer over the next few days. I’ve also been on a bit of a movie kick and plan on catching Wes Anderson’s new flick at some point soon. But for now, let’s dive into today’s links!

Alex Freeman Called Up For Gold Cup

Orlando City defender Alex Freeman was officially called up by the United States Men’s National Team for the Concacaf Gold Cup this summer. He’s the only Lion who will be at the tournament and is one of seven uncapped USMNT players on the roster. The 20-year-old could receive more playing time than expected, as right back Sergino Dest is not on the roster so that he can recover over the summer. Left back John Tolkin was added to replace Dest, so Freeman has a real shot at making a claim for the position this month. The U.S. will take on Turkey Saturday in the first of two friendlies before its first Gold Cup match against Trinidad & Tobago on June 15.

Orlando Pride Prepares to Host the Houston Dash

With the international break for women’s soccer over, the Orlando Pride return to action Saturday with a home game against the Houston Dash. It should be a great opportunity for the Pride to ease back into the swing of things against a Dash team that’s only scored 10 goals this season. Pride midfielder Ally Lemos spoke on the benefit of being able to rest heading into this match while maintaining a winning mindset from a 3-1 victory on May 23.

Anna Moorhouse Called Up For 2025 Euros

Orlando Pride goalkeeper Anna Moorhouse was named to England’s final roster for the 2025 UEFA European Women’s Championship. She’s one of three goalkeepers on the squad following Mary Earp’s surprise retirement from international soccer, and she will likely compete with fellow uncapped player Khiara Keating for the backup position behind Hannah Hampton. Moorhouse has started in every game for the Pride this season and was an NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year finalist for her record-breaking season last year. England’s Euro run will begin July 5 against France before other group matches against the Netherlands and Wales.

Orlando City B Takes On Huntsville City FC

The Young Lions are riding high after a 2-1 win over Chattanooga FC and will take that momentum into tonight’s road match against Huntsville City FC. Midfielder Noah Levis scored his first career goal in that home win, with Justin Hylton providing the assist in his OCB debut. Orlando’s offense has been hot and cold this season but has a variety of attacking talent that can create chances in different ways. The Young Lions have only won once on the road, but a win tonight would lift them to third in the Eastern Conference.

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  • FIFA Club World Cup action is coming to the City Beautiful this month and Orlando City legend Kaká spoke on how it’s nice for Orlando to host games.
  • San Diego Wave Head Coach Jonas Eidevall was named NWSL Coach of the Month. The Wave were undefeated in May, winning three of their four matches to climb to second in the league standings.
  • The NWSL will allow intraleague loans for all teams, with the players needing to consent to the move in order for it to happen. Denver and Boston’s expansion teams will have access to potentially over $1 million in Allocation Money starting on July 1 to build their rosters before the 2026 season.
  • Atletico Madrid is reportedly close to signing American midfielder Johnny Cardoso from Real Betis.
  • South Korea, Uzbekistan, and Jordan all qualified for the 2026 World Cup, while China was eliminated from contention. Australia beat Japan 1-0 and will qualify so long as it doesn’t lose heavily to Saudi Arabia on June 10.
  • Spain beat France 5-4 in a wild game to reach the UEFA Nations League final against Portugal on Sunday. Lamine Yamal continues to take the world by storm, but a late rally by France nearly completed a comeback.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/5/25

MLS All-Star voting update, Kerry Abello shines with USWNT, Sergio Zapata earns recognition, and more.

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1 day ago

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June 5, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I hope this week has been treating you well as we enjoy some international soccer and prepare for the return of NWSL action this weekend. Before we jump right into today’s links, let’s all wish a happy birthday to Orlando City B midfielder Dylan Judelson!

Pair of Lions Lead MLS All-Star Voting

Voting for this year’s MLS All-Star Game remains underway and an update was provided on which players are leading at each position. Orlando City defender Alex Freeman leads all right backs as he enjoys a breakout season. I was aware of the buzz he’s been getting this year, but it’s still surprising to see a Lion as an All-Star frontrunner. What’s even more surprising is that Pedro Gallese leads the voting for goalkeepers. The Peruvian made a rough gaffe last week, but has otherwise had a stellar season with Orlando that’s included seven clean sheets. Voting will close on June 11, so make sure to get those votes in before then.

Kerry Abello Impresses With USMNT

Orlando Pride defender Kerry Abello made her first appearance for the United States Women’s National Team Tuesday, playing every minute of the 4-0 win over Jamaica. The versatility she’s shown with the Pride translated well in Head Coach Emma Hayes’ system, as she was able to hold things down defensively and contribute to the attack as well. Abello could end up bringing solid depth to the USWNT as Hayes figures out the team’s future core of players. Enjoy this video from the USWNT that provides a look behind the scenes of Abello’s international debut.

Sergio Zapata Named Player of the Month

Sergio Zapata scored a whopping 11 goals for Orlando City’s U-19 team over the course of just four matches in May, winning the honor of MLS NEXT Player of the Month. He had three hat tricks last month, including one against Hoosier Premier at MLS NEXT Fest. Zapata committed to Cornell, so hopefully we’ll get to see him tear it up in the Ivy League over the next couple of years.

Zack Steffen Sustains Knee Injury

Goalkeeper Zack Steffen injured his knee at the United States Men’s National Team’s training camp and will reportedly miss this summer’s Concacaf Gold Cup. It’s rough news for the 30-year-old, as he was expected to compete with Matt Turner for the starting job with the USMNT. He’s been having a great season with the Colorado Rapids and returned to the club for further evaluation on the injury.

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That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 6/4/25

USWNT wins as Abello gets first cap, Orlando Pride’s Concacaf W Champions Cup draw, Club World Cup in Orlando, and more.

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2 days ago

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June 4, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. Tuesday was a busy soccer day, especially on the women’s side. We have plenty of Orlando Pride news, and the USWNT secured yet another victory. I’m hoping the good vibes continue since I’ll be coming down to Orlando for the Pride’s match this Saturday. If you’re going to the match, let me know, as I’d love to meet as many of our readers as possible. For now, let’s get to the links.

USWNT Blanks Jamaica

The USWNT defeated Jamaica 4-0 in a friendly at Energizer Park in St. Louis. The Orlando Pride’s Kerry Abello got her first start and her first cap in the match. She went the full 90 minutes and almost had her first international goal in the second half, but the chance went a bit wide of the right post. Ally Sentnor and Lynn Biyendolo each scored a brace as the U.S. rolled to an easy win.

Pride Internationals

Abello wasn’t the only Pride player to make an international appearance. Marta returned to international duty for Brazil getting the start and the captain’s armband in a 2-1 win over Japan. Both Grace Chanda and Barbra Banda started for Zambia in the 2-0 loss to South Africa in the Three Nations Challenge. Congratulations are also due to Zara Chavoshi, who earned her first cap with the Canadian Women’s National Team in the match against Haiti.

Concacaf W Champions Cup Draw

The Concacaf W Champions Cup draw happened yesterday and the Orlando Pride are in Group A with Club America Femenil, CF Pachuca Femenil, LD Alajuelense, and Chorrillo FC. Group B consists of NJ/NY Gotham FC, the Washington Spirit, CF Monterrey Femenil, Vancouver Rise FC Academy, and Alianza Women FC. The competition kicks off Aug. 19-21.

FIFA Loves Orlando

FIFA President Gianni Infantino sat for an interview with Jamie Seh of WKMG Orlando. Infantino spoke about the upcoming Club World Cup matches at Inter&Co Stadium and Camping World Stadium. FIFA loves Orlando enough for the city to host the Club World Cup, but not the actual World Cup. Here is the schedule for the matches in Orlando. We will be bringing you coverage of these matches.

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That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for the return of the Orlando Pride this weekend. Vamos Orlando!

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