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Orlando City

Orlando City Needs to Start Using the Scoreboard Again

A deep statistical dive into Orlando City’s offensive struggles. We’re warning you…there will be math (but we do it for you).

Published

10 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more memorable scenes in my favorite movie of all time, Bull Durham, is when the manager walks into the showers after another loss, yells at the team about their recent performance, and ends with “this (baseball) is a simple game: you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. You got it!?” Soccer is, of course, a little different but the concept remains the same. You pass the ball, you shoot the ball, you score the ball. Unless you are Orlando City, recently.

Anyone can look at the recent results for Orlando City and see that goals have been, shall we say, less than plentiful. But why is that happening? Well, one idea may be that another team in Orlando is using up all the goals, with the Orlando Pride having scored 19 (excluding opposition own goals) to Orlando City’s 15, with the Pride having played four fewer games to boot, but goals are not a zero-sum equation (I know you asked your math teacher for years when you would ever need to use equations in the real world; you’re welcome!), so let’s dive into what has been going on for Orlando City and take a look at what may be causing an average of 0.94 goals/game (again, excluding opposition own goals) in the 2024 MLS season after an average of 1.6 goals/game in 2023.

Wayne Gretzky famously said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take,” but I do not think a lack of shots taken is the main culprit for this Orlando City team this season. Yes, in the last match against the Red Bulls the Lions only managed five shots (all stats in this article are courtesy of fbref.com,  in collaboration with Opta, which codes thousands of matches every weekend across hundreds of competitions all over the world), but for the 2024 season, Orlando City is averaging 11.8 shots/game, 1.1 shots/game fewer than the league average of 12.9 but actually 0.1 higher than Orlando City’s 11.7 shots/game from 2023. Orlando City’s 11.8 shots/game ranks 23rd in all of MLS — not great, but the team with the most shots/game, St. Louis FC at 16.8, has only earned one more point than Orlando City after playing the same number of games, and the correlation (I told you there would be math) between shots/game and goals is relatively weak (r = 0.25, a strong positive correlation would be an r between 0.7 and the maximum r value of 1.0), so a higher value of shots/game does not necessarily lead to more goals.

What does tend to lead to more goals is more shots on target. I know, I know, you never would have thought of that. And as we look into shots on target for Orlando City in 2024, lo and behold, this is where we start to really see where the problems have arisen this season. Orlando City ranks 26th in MLS this year with 29% shots on target, so when you combine a rank of 23rd in shots/game with a rank of no. 26 in shots on target, you get a team that has scored a low amount of Goals as compared to the rest of the league. Orlando City’s 29% shots on target rate in 2024 is an 18% decrease from its 2023 shots on target percentage of 36% (7% raw decrease (36%-29% = 7%) but an 18% percent decrease (29%/36% – 100% = -18%), and the Lions’ 29% shots on target percentage is 1.28 standard deviations below the MLS average.

This is probably the time for me to tell you I was that high school math teacher who students asked about using math in the real world, and I did teach AP statistics, where we frequently talked about standard deviations and 1.28 standard deviations below the average is, in this case, to use a technical term, u-g-l-y and they ain’t got no alibi.

Is it as ugly as Bubba Sparxxx rapped about back in 2000? Was that just a question to make a pop culture reference about a song I enjoyed when I was in high school? Yes and yes. The first time I ever heard former Orlando City coach Adrian Heath interviewed he said, “Goals change games,” which of course is obvious and means that those who are taking the most shots need to be game changers. Looking at the table below, we can see who has been taking the shots and the differences between 2024 and 2023:

At first glance there is some good news. Orlando City’s leading shot takers this year are generally shooting on target around the league average, but it is on the clinical side, the goals per shot on target and goals per shot attempt where we can see that Orlando City is struggling.

We do see that Duncan McGuire continues to be clinical when he gets his shots on target, but the big drop for him is that last year he put nearly three out of every four shots on target and this year he is down to something much closer to the league average of around one out of every three. Among players with at least 17 shots last year (I chose this number because it would be 0.5 shots/game across 34 games and because it is my father’s favorite number), Duncan ranked first out of 244 MLS players in shots on target percentage and in goals per shots on target, and though his numbers this year are still above average, he is down to 43rd and 13th out of the 108 players who have taken more than 17 shots, respectively (keeping the same shot volume threshold for consistency). Four other major takeaways from me on this chart:

  • Facundo Torres was second on the list for most shots taken in 2023 and was an excellent finisher (this does include penalties, but they are shots and you have to make them), but in 2024 he is tied for fifth in shots with Dagur Dan Thórhallsson at only 15 shots taken.
  • Martin Ojeda remains a high volume shooter, but he is looking much more like Jordan Poole than Steph Curry this year with a lot of shots on target but not a lot of makes. And by not a lot I mean, sadly, zero.
  • Orlando City as a whole is taking shots from slightly closer to the goal but the team’s most frequent shooters are shooting from farther away than last year, and you do not need me as a math major to tell you that goalkeepers would prefer long shots over close shots.
  • Ercan Kara was a somewhat maligned striker for Orlando City, but he was pretty lethal when he got a shot off, putting more than two out of every five shots on frame and scoring at twice the MLS average on goals/shot. His 2023 shot volume is low on this chart because he left halfway through the season, but in his two years in MLS he scored at 21% and 22% on goals/shot, which put him in the upper echelon of shooters in the league.

Going back to McGuire and where he ranked in all of MLS, here is a heat map, but with the corresponding percentile ranks of Orlando City’s players among players who took at least 17 (hi Dad) shots (red to green scale — 0% (dark red, very low performance) to 100% (dark green, very good performance).

The comparisons between 2024 and 2023 are the most stark again in the columns involving goals, as in 2023 Orlando City’s most frequent shooters were scoring in the upper echelons of all MLS players, and this year there is much more red/orange than green for those with at least 17 shots. The other biggest differences of course surround who is taking the shots. Luis Muriel has arrived and has taken the most shots in 2024, but looking at his career shooting stats there is not a lot of evidence that being a lethal finisher is something in his skillset. Barbra Banda he is not, but then again nobody is Barbra Banda (except Barbra Banda), and expecting Muriel to change his playing style to be more of a finisher rather than initiator while adapting to a new league and teammates is lot to ask for someone who joined after the season began.

The bigger need for Orlando City is to get McGuire back on the field and to get Torres going, Facundo’s shots/90 minutes is down more than 50% from last season (largely owing to playing a lot of wingback over the last several weeks), and for someone who was in the 94th percentile in goals/shot in 2023 to have decreased their shot volume by so much is the opposite of what you want. Plus, Facundo is my son’s favorite player and he misses seeing Torres’ selfie celebration.

I want to end with a positive, however, and that is wrapped around the concept of regression to the mean. In the case of Orlando City this would actually likely be a positive regression as opposed to a negative one. During the last four years, MLS has been remarkably stable in terms of goals/shot on target (35%, 32%, 33%, 33%) and goals/shot (12%, 11%, 11%, 11%). Just because the league has been stable does not mean that Orlando City automatically will improve, but with the talent of the players on the squad and their history, I think it is more likely than not that Orlando City’s low performance so far in 2024 will come back up towards league average — much like a Major League Baseball player’s batting average on balls in play often evens out over time based on their level of skill.

Orlando City has talented players, including many who led the team to the best record in the team’s history last season, and I believe it is likely that we will start seeing small increases in goals/shot on target and goals/shot as the season progresses. I certainly hope we do, because it is much more fun when Orlando City masters this simple game and scores the ball, scores the ball, and scores the ball.

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Opinion

Orlando City’s Start to the Season a Pleasant Surprise So Far

The Lions have started the new season well enough, but we shouldn’t get too carried away just yet.

Published

22 hours ago

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April 18, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

While Orlando City didn’t have a ton of roster turnover to deal with during the off-season, it was really anybody’s guess as to what sort of start the Lions would make to the 2025 Major League Soccer season. There was obviously the loss of all-time leading goal scorer Facundo Torres to deal with, then Wilder Cartagena was lost for the year in preseason, although the club did a great job in landing Eduard Atuesta to replace him. There were also questions about depth at left back, center back, and central midfield. It was anyone’s guess on how Marco Pasalic would adjust to life in MLS, and there were serious questions about whether the Lions had enough firepower up front with Duncan McGuire unavailable to start the season while he recovered from shoulder surgery.

While the club returned the vast majority of the guys who played key roles in helping reach the Eastern Conference final, on paper, the roster didn’t improve and arguably got weaker, so was it truly realistic to expect the team to go a step farther and make the final this year?

Despite all of those concerns, and despite a confidence-shaking 4-2 opening game loss to the Philadelphia Union, Orlando has largely made a good start to the campaign. The Lions have compiled a respectable 3-2-3 record and have 12 points to show for it, currently sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference, six points behind the first-place Columbus Crew.

Even in the two losses, it’s hard to make the argument that OCSC played truly bad games on the whole. Rather, the Lions were undone by moments of bad defending and losses of concentration that led to silly mistakes, particularly against the Union. The shaky defending has certainly been one of the bigger concerns, especially on an Oscar Pareja-coached team, but things have begun to look better after keeping two straight clean sheets.

Ironically, even though the offense seemed to be most people’s biggest concern before the season started, it’s been the part of the team that has consistently functioned at the highest level. Before the two 0-0 draws, Orlando had scored the most goals in the league, and despite being held scoreless twice in a row, they still have the third-most goals scored. Out of OCSC’s six games played with a first choice XI, the Lions have scored more than one goal four times. Even in the games when they haven’t been as prolific, or have largely been on the back foot, the Lions have still managed to carve out a healthy number of chances. While their finishing has let them down at times, they’ve still managed to get several good looks at goal in every game, and that’s half the battle.

All in all, it’s been a perfectly respectable start to the season, and the team honestly has performed higher than my (probably slightly pessimistic) expectations. While the start hasn’t been white hot, it’s been nice to not see the sort of slow start that so often has seemed to plague this club during Pareja’s tenure at the helm.

That being said, I think it’s important to place the beginning of the year in the proper context. It’s worth noting that of the teams that Orlando has played to this point, Philadelphia is the only one currently above the playoff line (although the New York Red Bulls occupy the last play-in spot). The Lions have beaten an LA Galaxy team that is the worst in the West; Toronto FC, which is second from the bottom in the East; and D.C. United, which is third from the bottom in the East. They drew the fifth-place Union on the road, and lost to NYCFC at the baseball stadium. But it has to be said that Orlando has faced a noticeable lack of top shelf opponents so far.

Essentially, Orlando has played three bad teams, two decent ones, and one that started very well but has cooled off in recent weeks (twice). Of course, OCSC can’t do anything about that, but it’s worth asking if the solid start to the season is due to the Lions legitimately being a good team, or if it’s more of a paper tiger situation where they just haven’t had to play many tough opponents yet.

There isn’t really any way of knowing for sure, and there won’t be any hints for awhile. With the way the standings currently look, Orlando won’t face a team above the playoff line until they go up against Charlotte FC on the road on May 14. I don’t bring all of this up to try to dampen the mood, but I just don’t think we have a truly accurate idea of this team’s level yet. Which is fair and totally fine, after all we’re only eight games into the season.

That doesn’t mean that we can’t give OCSC its due for a solid start to the year. It hasn’t been perfect by any means, but the team has done more good than bad, and the Lions’ current place in the standings reflects that. We should still keep things in perspective and resist the urge to dole out too much praise just yet, but we can be happy with what we’ve seen so far.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/18/25

Orlando City set to play the Tampa Bay Rowdies, Lions reach Generation Adidas Cup semifinals, Angel City hires Alexander Straus, and more.

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1 day ago

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April 18, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! I hope today finds you well as we gear up for another Saturday filled with soccer to enjoy. I don’t have many plans this Easter weekend beyond working, catching soccer when I can, and playing Baldur’s Gate 3 for the first time if I find some spare hours. Let’s dive right into today’s links from around the soccer world!

Orlando City Learns U.S. Open Cup Opponents

Orlando City’s 2025 U.S. Open Cup campaign will begin on the road against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on May 7 at 7:30 p.m. in what will be the latest edition of the I-4 Derby. It will be Orlando’s first game of this year’s tournament, while the Rowdies joined in the previous round and got past FC Naples in penalties. The Rowdies have lost four of their five games so far this season in the USL Championship and fired Robbie Neilson as head coach earlier this month. The Lions also notably would have hosting priority if they reach the round of 16, where they will play either Nashville SC or the Chattanooga Red Wolves.

Here’s the full schedule for the round of 32, which includes some interesting matchups across the country. The Tacoma Defiance are the only MLS NEXT Pro side left and will face the Portland Timbers, while the New York Red Bulls will have a long road trip to take on the Colorado Springs Switchbacks.

Lions Advance to Generation Adidas Cup Semifinals

Orlando City’s U-18 team beat Real Salt Lake 1-0 in the Generation Adidas Cup to secure a spot in the semifinals. The Young Lions have won four of their five games of the tournament and will take on Santos Laguna in the semifinal on Saturday. The winner of that match will face whichever team becomes victorious in the other semifinal between Atlanta United and the Colorado Rapids.

The U-16 team’s run in the Premier bracket is also going strong after a 1-0 win over Bayern Munich, and Orlando will take on the New England Revolution in the semifinals on Saturday.

Angel City FC Hires Alexander Straus

Bayern Munich’s Alexander Straus was named Angel City FC’s next head coach and will officially join the club on June 1. The Norwegian coach has won back-to-back Bundesliga titles and has Bayern positioned well to make it three straight this season. He’ll join an Angel City team that’s unbeaten in its first four games of the season under interim head coach Sam Laity, who will stay on as an assistant coach once Straus joins.

Europa League Quarterfinals End In Dramatic Fashion

Old Trafford hosted one of the wildest games in Europa League history, with Manchester United and Lyon battling for a spot in the quarterfinals. United scored twice in the first half, then conceded twice in the second, sending the game to extra time. Lyon took the lead despite being a man down and then the teams traded penalty kicks as the madness continued. Casemiro orchestrated Manchester’s victory in the end, assisting on two late goals within a minute of each other to beat Lyon 5-4 and advance. This United fan pretty much sums up just how much of a rollercoaster this match was.

There was also drama in Italy, as Lazio came back in the second leg to force extra time against Bodo/Glimt. The match went to penalties and Bodo/Glimt goalkeeper Nikitka Haikin denied former New York City FC player Taty Castellanos from the spot to book his team’s place in the semifinals. Although Tottenham was without Son Heung-Min, it got the job done in a 1-0 road win against Eintracht Frankfurt, while Athletic Club beat Rangers 2-0 in Spain to advance as well. In the semifinals, Tottenham will face Bodo/Glimt and Manchester United will take on Athletic Club.

Free Kicks

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Orlando City

Orlando City at CF Montreal: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to earn all three points on the road against Montreal?

Published

2 days ago

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April 17, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City heads to the Great White North to take on CF Montreal. The Canadian squad sits in last place in not just the Eastern Conference but also the entire MLS, with only two points from a pair of draws. To say it’s not been a good start to the season is an understatement. Of course, it’s exactly that type of situation that makes it feel like a trap. What does Orlando City need to do to take all three points against CF Montreal?

Designated Goal Scorers

What do you do if you haven’t scored a goal in the last two matches? You play a team that has given up 13 goals in eight matches with a -9 goal differential. Montreal doesn’t have the worst defense in the league — I’m looking at you, D.C. United — but it’s not far off. That presents an opportunity for Orlando City to get back on track when it comes to scoring goals.

Through the first six matches of the season, Orlando City was leading the league in scoring with 15 goals. Over the last two matches, the spigot has dried up. The Lions must seize on this opportunity to create and finish their chances. Much like earlier in the season, I want to see Luis Muriel, Martin Ojeda, and Marco Pasalic lead the way. If anyone can get the first goal, then I’m hopeful the dam will break and the scoring drought will be over.

Keep it Clean

There is some good news of late when it comes to the Orlando City defense. The club has two clean sheets over the last two matches, and that is without Cesar Araujo. There is also some bad news, given Rodrigo Schlegel will be serving his red card suspension this match. That means David Brekalo will move back to center back with Robin Jansson, and Oscar Pareja will have to employ either Rafael Santos or Kyle Smith at left back. Santos has been less than good so far this season.

Montreal has scored a paltry four goals so far in 2025, but two of them have come from striker Prince Owusu. The defense will also need to deal with Caden Clark facilitating in the midfield. I get that this isn’t a prolific attack. Montreal has not looked very good this season and is looking for both its first win and its first points of any sort at home. That means the hosts may be desperate for a result, and desperate is often dangerous. How well the defense does — in particular, how well Santos does if he plays — may determine if Montreal is able to break out of its slump. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

Give the Midfield Time

Before the last match, I was a little worried about the midfield. Having both Araujo and Eduard Atuesta out at the same time seemed to be a concern. Now, after seeing how well Joran Gerbet and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson worked together against the New York Red Bulls, I’m way less worried. If Araujo and Atuesta need a little more time to get fully healthy, then let them. The Franco/Icelandic combo seems to be a potent one.

Of course, if the normal starters are ready, then by all means bring them back, but maybe not until the 60th minute. Perhaps Pareja could even mix and match. One never knows how yellow card suspensions or minor injuries will affect player availability. This is a good match for Gerbet and Thorhallsson to work their magic.

That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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