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Is Luis Muriel Who We Thought He Would Be?

A thorough investigation into whether Luis Muriel has underperformed or if fans just need some dissuasion.

Published

5 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Winston Churchill famously evaluated what Russia would do during World War II by saying, “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma, but perhaps there is a key.” In the grand scheme of things, the performance of one player on Orlando City’s 2024 squad is slightly less important than what Great Britain’s prime minister was discussing, I think, but when analyzing Luis Muriel and how his season has gone thus far, I continue to come back to the same question: is Luis Muriel underperforming expectations or were our expectations never correct in the first place?

Let’s get right into it — Muriel’s traditional stats thus far this season do not look fantastic for a striker (though it must be said that his post-goal dance on Saturday, dubbed “The Muriel” on this week’s episode of The Mane Land PawedCast, did look fantastic). Here is a chart, using data from fbref.com in collaboration with Opta, that shows some of his 2024 stats, their rank in MLS, and their rank on Orlando City (for some of these metrics I included a qualifier of number of attempts and chose 19 as the minimum, because for many teams that would mean a player had averaged at least one attempt per game in that category):

For a player who is, according to the MLS Players Salary Guide, the 12th-highest paid player in MLS, you would like to see a lot of those ranks closer to the top 10 or 20 in the league than what you see in that chart. For a player who is by far the highest paid on Orlando City’s 2024 team, and is the second highest-paid player ever for Orlando City (Kaká was the highest paid), you would like to see him leading the team in at least one of those categories, if not several.

The bottom two in particular stand out to me, as there are 125 MLS players who have taken at least 19 shots this season, and Muriel ranks 113th on that list in distance from the goal and 92nd in getting his shots on target, meaning he is shooting from farther away than nearly all high-volume shooters, and he is getting his shots on goal less often than most. In fact, his shot profile shows that he is taking a higher percentage of shots from 25+ yards away from the goal (dark purple section below) than any of his teammates are taking from 19+ yards away from the goal (dark purple + light purple sections), and he is taking nearly 70% of all of his shots from outside of the 18.

Now, were he putting these shots on goal — or, even better, in the goal — then nobody would care about where he was shooting from, but when you have three goals all year and 69% of your shots are not on target, then heads are going to shake, shake, shake, shake like a song by the Ying Yang Twins and Pitbull. But this is where I think a step back is needed, because if fans were expecting Muriel to come in and perform as a traditional striker or No. 9, then they were misreading his historical performance and his strengths as a player.

When you look at Muriel’s season-by-season statistics, two seasons jump out that would seem to contradict what I just wrote, and those are his 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, when he scored 18 and 22 goals, respectively.

“That seems like a lot of goals for someone you say is not a traditional striker, Andrew.”

Well, yes, but 11 of those 40 goals were from free kicks (which definitely takes skill, but skill that is not unique to a striker), and two were rebounds that fell to him inside the six-yard box, and while I do not generally love the statistic called xG (expected goals), it can be useful in some contexts, and those two rebounds both fell to Muriel in a location where a goal was expected 82% and 85% of the time. It’s almost so easy a caveman could do it.

So, either we are left with 27 of his goals (excluding 11 free kicks + two rebounds) or 29 of his goals (excluding only the 11 free kicks) that came from open play during those two high-scoring years — an average of 14.5 or 13.5 a season. Those are definitely good numbers, especially in a highly rated league like Serie A, but they are still also outliers when compared to his goals/year during most of his career.

Looking at his seasons from 2010-2011 through 2022-2023, excluding the two big seasons discussed above, Muriel averaged six non-penalty-kick goals per season. He scored those goals in Italy’s Serie A or Spain’s La Liga, top leagues, but six goals/year is not an amount generally associated with big-time strikers. To assume he would all of a sudden become a major goal scorer in the latter stages of his career just because he is joining a league rated lower than the one where he played previously is a bit of a stretch, and may be an unfair expectation by us as fans.

The other part I want to focus on that I think may be underappreciated by fans is all of the non-scoring contributions that Muriel has made during his time on the field. Yes, in the end the only stats that actually matter are goals and wins, and there have not been a lot of either thus far this season, but no single player is primarily responsible for that, even if they are a highly paid Designated Player.

A lot of the issues Orlando City has had this year are due to geometry (there will always be math when I write) and how the Lions’ shape needs to be in order to get the most out of the players on this year’s team. There are quite a lot of overlapping skills and overlapping places where players like to receive the ball, and that has frequently led to spacing issues on the field with creative players all wanting to go and get the ball in the same location at the same time.

Muriel, unlike many of his teammates, is a two-footed player and thus able to attack from anywhere on the field and in any direction, allowing him to create open spaces to play the ball all over the attacking third of the field. While this can get him into trouble (see: shots from very long range), he also has used this ability to be one of the more active and dangerous players in all of MLS when he has the ball:

As an aside, the last row there is interesting to me because Muriel ranks 16th in all of MLS, yet third on Orlando City (behind Nico Lodeiro in third overall and Facundo Torres in 15th overall). The Crew have two players in the top 16 as well, and every other player in the top 16 is the only one on his respective team. I am not sure whether Orlando City having three near the top is an example of an unselfish team that is comfortable playing the ball among playmakers or reflects a team that does not have the pecking order set, and thus it becomes a little of “my turn, your turn” type offense.

Last season, there was a clear order in that Torres led the team and was 25th in MLS, and the next-highest-ranking players were Martín Ojeda in 57th and Mauricio Pereyra in 79th. Is this something? I think it is still too early to tell, but removing own goals, Orlando City players scored 1.59 goals/game in 2023 and thus far this season they are only scoring 1.16 goals/game, and I believe that the lack of a defined primary creator is one of several contributing factors to the lower-scoring output this season.

Back to Muriel and that chart above, his talent and skill clearly shows in how he is able to thread passes into dangerous areas and create shots at a rate that puts him among the leaders in all of MLS. His dribbling ability, reflected in the progressive carry percentage, shows that he is moving the ball at least 10 yards forward towards the goal 12.7% of the time he dribbles the ball in the offensive half of the field. This puts the defense under pressure, because he is building up a head of steam and coming at pace, and since he is also completing approximately 80% of his short passes (0-15 yards) thus far this season, and completing many of those into the 18, he is a constant threat once he has the ball.

As I mentioned before, Muriel is a two-footed player (Opta’s tracking has the foot used for 83 Muriel goals — 22 were left foot and 61 were right foot, an impressive mix), so he is a player who can go left or right, is accurate with his passes in tight spaces, creates shooting opportunities for his teammates, and wants the ball at all times. These are all qualities you want in an attacking player, especially one as proficient as Muriel is in them.

So we return to the riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma — a player with clear skill and pedigree who is contributing offensively but is not putting up the counting stats fans thought he would, even though he never really did aside from two outlier years. As much as I like to be more glass-half-full than half-empty, I do feel like Muriel should have contributed more goals by this point in the season, but unlike what the fan sitting next to me said during Saturday’s game, I do not think he is massively underperforming either.

In the end, I think Muriel’s performance thus far has been kind of like where we frequently see him on the field, more in the middle than in the front.

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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Final Score 1-0 as Lions Advance to Eastern Conference Final

The Lions played well defensively and did just enough offensively to knock rival Atlanta out of the postseason.

Published

3 mins ago

on

November 24, 2024

By

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

The Orlando City-Atlanta United rivalry has been a one-sided affair since the latter joined Major League Soccer in 2017. The Lions had won only four times in all competitions between the clubs, including dropping both regular-season meetings this year. Orlando took a big step toward making the series a true rivalry by ousting the Five Stripes from the playoffs with a 1-0 win in front of an announced sellout of 25,046 fans at Inter&Co Stadium tonight.

Ramiro Enrique’s goal late in the first half off a corner kick scramble was the only scoring, as Orlando City continues to struggle offensively in the postseason. However, the Lions were so good defensively it didn’t matter, as the visitors attempted just seven shots and couldn’t get one of them on frame. As a result, Orlando City advanced and will play in the Eastern Conference final for the first time.

“We are obviously very excited and proud, but first from our players and our staff, we want to honor the fans that came today with such energy and helped us,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “It’s beautiful to see the stadium that way and see how the culture of this club has become one of the best in Major League Soccer. So, responding with this victory is great.”

Pareja’s starting lineup offered no surprises, with Pedro Gallese in goal behind a back line of Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson. Cesar Araujo and Wilder Cartagena started in central midfield behind an attacking line of Ivan Angulo, Martin Ojeda, and Facundo Torres with Enrique up top.

Orlando created a chance just two minutes into the match. Ojeda sent in a perfect cross from the left flank that picked out Torres in front. Torres got his head to it but got under it, sending it well over the bar.

Thorhallsson was able to sneak in on the right in the fifth minute, firing his shot off the right post. Brad Guzan saved the rebound shot but the entire play was ruled offside anyway.

Enrique got his head to a corner kick cross in the 10th minute but hit his shot straight at Guzan.

Ojeda smashed a shot on the volley in the 23rd minute from outside the area, just missing the upper left corner of the net. The next half chance came nine minutes later, when Santos sent in a low cross from the left. Araujo flew in to get his head to it but couldn’t steer it on frame.

Enrique opened the scoring in the 39th minute after the Lions won a corner kick on a cross that deflected behind off the defense. Ojeda sent in a good ball that hit off of Stian Gregersen and fell into an open spot in the six-yard box. Enrique was the first to react, slotting it past Guzan to make it 1-0.

“On that corner and that type of play, I always intend to be ready for that second ball, for that second play,” Enrique said. “When it was hit there, thankfully I anticipated it really well and just got into that space and beat everybody to the ball and was able to convert. Happy for this team and for this club, and to be able to move on in this moment, and to have a part in that by scoring the goal, I think being able to get to the conference final, we’re just really happy.”

Daniel Rios came on for Jamal Thiare in the 43rd minute after Atlanta’s starting striker had gone down multiple times with a knock and ultimately couldn’t continue.

After the change, Enrique tried his luck from long range in the 44th minute but hit his shot poorly and sent it well wide of the right post.

That was the last look at goal of the half and the Lions took their one-goal advantage into the break.

The Lions had the halftime advantage in possession (63.8%-36.2%), shots (7-3), shots on target (3-0), and passing accuracy (89.4%-74.9%). Both teams earned two corners in the opening half.

“Two difficult halves. The first one, we played very well,” Pareja said. “The second one, we found more resistance from Atlanta as you all saw, but we didn’t concede much options. Instead, I thought our group was fine, and then we found our goal. It means a lot for a very tight game.”

Rios took a ball to the face just after the restart and had to be subbed off in the 49th minute. Ronald Hernandez came on for Rios, who played only a few minutes.

Atlanta had a spell of possession just after that and generated a few shots but nothing too menacing. The closest was Aleksey Miranchuk’s shot into the outside netting from the left side in the 51st minute. After the Lions cleared a corner, Bartosz Slisz fired wide from outside the box in the 56th minute.

Enrique again went for a brace in the 57th on an Orlando corner kick. The Argentine was first to the cross but sent his header off target again.

Ajani Fortune shot off target in the 58th minute from the top of the area.

Enrique stole the ball in the 68th minute to ignite the break. Despite having some numbers with him in transition, he fired a shot from long range, missing the net. That was Enrique’s last involvement, as Duncan McGuire replaced him a minute later, with Luis Muriel coming on for Ojeda at the same time. Muriel was a difference maker, helping the Lions maintain more possession and control, however, McGuire was untidy with the ball, giving it away numerous times unnecessarily, helping Atlanta regain possession down the stretch while the visitors were searching for an equalizer.

Muriel was taken down in the attacking third in the 75th minute, but referee Armando Villarreal didn’t call a foul, allowing Atlanta to counter quickly. Saba Lobjanidze sent a dangerous ball across toward an open teammate on the left but Gallese came off his line quickly to make a vital interception.

A minute later, Muriel unlocked the defense on the left, sending Torres down into the corner. The Uruguayan fizzed a dangerous ball in to McGuire at the near post, but the striker’s flick was just wide.

Cartagena was left in too much space in the 86th minute, so he tried his luck from distance. He didn’t get enough on his shot and sent it straight to Guzan, marking the game’s only shot on target in the second half.

Orlando did just enough to see out the remaining few minutes of normal time and seven added minutes. Atlanta’s closest opportunity to finding an equalizer came in the fourth minute of stoppage time, when a good ball in from the right found Miranchuk high in the box. He got his head to the cross but sent it over the bar.

A few minutes later, the match was over. Orlando finished with the advantage in possession (50.6%-49.4%), shots (14-8), shots on target (4-0), corners (5-4), and passing accuracy (85.8%-83.6%).

Atlanta held more of the ball and created more with it in the second half, but ultimately the Lions had just about everything covered. Cartagena, who was suspended for both meetings between the rivals in the regular season, was a difference maker, helping Araujo lock down the middle of the pitch.

“There is not a secret just to see how the connection that Cesar and Wilder have had during the year, and both of them have grown tremendously in the way they helped the group,” Pareja said. “Both of them understand their role and they are very important. Wilder today had the task to control one of the best playmakers in the league, a guy who has created a lot of damage on the prior games, Miranchuk, very crafty, and I thought he neutralized him very well.”

“It’s an amazing feeling. I can tell you that,” Thorhallsson said. “I feel like there’s kind of a relief that finally we did it (reached the conference final) and just an amazing feeling. We felt like we needed to come like gun out blazing and just full out from the start, and I felt like we did that. I felt like from the beginning we were quite solid.”

“We are now competing the way we wanted,” Pareja said. “One more step. We haven’t won yet. We will be prepared for New York, and hopefully we can advance to the final.”

Orlando City will host the New York Red Bulls Saturday at 7:30 p.m. in the Eastern Conference final.

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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More

The Lions look to avenge two regular-season losses against Atlanta and advance to the Eastern Conference final.

Published

10 hours ago

on

November 24, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Welcome to your match thread for a Sunday Eastern Conference semifinal playoff matchup between Orlando City and Atlanta United at Inter&Co Stadium (6 p.m., MLS Season Pass on Apple TV). It’ll be the third meeting of the year between the two teams, after Atlanta claimed both of the regular-season clashes.

Here’s what you need to know ahead of tonight’s match.

History

The Lions are 4-10-7 in the all-time series against Atlanta in league play and 2-6-3 at home. Those numbers drop to 4-11-7 and 2-7-3 in all competitions.

The teams last met on Decision Day, with Atlanta scoring two early goals and holding on for a 2-1 win on Oct. 9. Saba Lobjanidze and Jamal Thiare gave the visitors an early lead. Martin Ojeda pulled one back and Duncan McGuire appeared to tie the game late, but the latter goal was overturned on video review for a handball. The teams also met at Mercedes-Benz Stadium back on March 17, when Orlando City fell 2-0 on goals by Lobjanidze and Giorgos Giakoumakis.

The last meeting of 2023 took place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with Orlando City capturing a 2-1 away win. Atlanta took the lead through Caleb Wiley, but Antonio Carlos and McGuire scored to lead the Lions’ comeback.

The southeast rivals also met in Orlando on May 27, 2023, at then-Exploria Stadium and played to a 1-1 draw. It was a heartbreaking dropped two points for the Lions, who took the lead through Kyle Smith at the half-hour mark and held that advantage until four minutes from full time, when Tyler Wolff pounced on a fortunate rebound in the box and equalized.

Atlanta went 1-0-1 in the season series in 2022. On Sept. 14 at Exploria Stadium the Five Stripes won 1-0 on a Thiago Almada goal despite the Lions out-shooting Atlanta 20-10. The sides played to a 1-1 draw in their first meeting of that year on July 22 in Atlanta. Mauricio Pereyra staked the Lions to an early 1-0 lead on a beautiful free kick. Juan Jose Purata equalized in the second half, but Atlanta bombarded Orlando the majority of the game and completely controlled the midfield, out-shooting the Lions 18-3 in the match.

Orlando had a six-match unbeaten streak in the series (3-0-3) snapped on Sept. 10, 2021, as the Five Stripes won 3-0 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. George Campbell and Ezequiel Barco scored for Atlanta, sandwiched around a Daryl Dike own goal to hand Gonzalo Pineda his first win as manager for United.

The second of three 2021 meetings took place July 30 at Exploria Stadium, with the Five Stripes taking the lead twice on goals by Josef Martinez and Marcelino Moreno, but the Lions not only fought back twice on strikes by Smith and Silvester van der Water, but Nani scored a late game winner by heading in VDW’s cross in Orlando City’s 3-2 win. The first meeting of that season between the two rivals came on opening day — April 17 — and they played to a 0-0 draw. It was an evenly matched game, with each team firing 11 shots and getting three on frame.

The final meeting of 2020 came on Oct. 28, when Orlando City ran away with a 4-1 win over Atlanta at Exploria Stadium. Dike, Chris Mueller, Tesho Akindele, and Matheus Aias — his first in MLS — scored the goals for the Lions, with Cubo Torres preventing a shutout with a late goal for the visitors. Prior to that, the teams met in Atlanta on Oct. 7, 2020 and played to a 0-0 draw. Robinho and Nani each hit the woodwork and Brad Guzan stood on his head to prevent Orlando from taking a deserved three points in that one, while Brian Rowe held down the fort at the other end to earn a shutout in Pedro Gallese’s absence.

Back on Sept. 5, 2020, a late, unforced turnover by Kamal Miller led to Adam Jahn’s 92nd-minute tying goal that offset a Benji Michel goal in a 1-1 draw at Exploria Stadium. Orlando City finally got on the board in the series against Atlanta United with a 3-1 win on the road on Aug. 29, 2020. Junior Urso, Mueller, and Nani supplied the offense to more than counter a Brooks Lennon headed goal. That three-goal explosion snapped a three-match scoreless streak against the Five Stripes for Orlando.

Orlando City created an incredible 17 scoring chances on Aug. 23, 2019, yet finished none of them in a 1-0 home loss. Martinez scored the game’s only goal in the second half. Only 17 days earlier at Exploria Stadium, Orlando also failed to score and lost 2-0 to Atlanta, getting bounced from the U.S. Open Cup semifinals. On Mother’s Day of 2019, Atlanta United claimed a 1-0 win at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Pity Martinez scored the goal.

Atlanta won at the building then known as Orlando City Stadium on Aug. 24, 2018 by a 2-1 final score. Leandro Gonzalez Pirez bundled home a rebound off Joe Bendik, who misplayed Barco’s free kick to open the scoring just 21 minutes in. Scott Sutter tied the game just before the half, but Josef Martinez broke the deadlock in the second half, with only 16 minutes remaining in normal time.

Atlanta easily claimed the June 30, 2018 meeting at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, 4-0. Josef Martinez and Barco each scored a goal and Miguel Almiron added a brace. Orlando lost the first matchup of 2018, 2-1, on May 13. An early penalty on a Cristian Higuita foul gave the visitors a leg up on a Josef Martinez goal from the spot and Barco doubled the lead before halftime. Justin Meram scored his first goal as a Lion to pull one back, but Orlando could get no closer. The unfortunate ending included a shower of debris coming out of the stands due to dissatisfaction with referee Alan Kelly’s decisions that night.

Hector Villalba’s two late goals in the first two meetings turned what could have been an Orlando draw and a win into a loss and a draw. The two teams kicked off their series with Orlando suffering a late 1-0 loss at home on July 21, 2017. Villalba found the net late. Villalba then scored a stoppage-time tally to rescue a 1-1 draw for Atlanta in the second meeting on July 29, 2017. Kaká scored one of his best goals as a Lion in that match to provide Orlando’s lone score.

Orlando City became the first visiting team to take any points out of Mercedes-Benz Stadium with a 3-3 draw in Atlanta that September. Dom Dwyer scored his first brace as a Lion (in MLS, anyway) and also assisted on Cyle Larin’s goal. Josef Martinez’s hat trick spoiled Orlando’s bid to take all three points.

Overview

Orlando is coming off a nervy, best-of-three series win over Charlotte FC that required penalties to decide. The Lions won the opening game, appeared to score a late winner in the 0-0 second game, only to see the flag come up — perhaps erroneously, but too close to overturn — and lost the penalty shootout 3-1, and then came from behind to tie Game 3 at 1-1 and win the penalty shootout 4-1. Orlando City is 7-1-2 in its last 10 home matches in regular-season and playoff action, with that one loss coming to tonight’s visitors.

Atlanta United is coming off a three-game series win over Supporters’ Shield-winning Inter Miami, falling in Game 1 but claiming the next two. All three games in the series were decided by one goal.

Orlando City’s defense will have to keep tabs on Lobjanidze, who led Atlanta in goals (9) and was second in assists (7), as well as Daniel Rios, who has chipped in seven goals and four assists for an Atlanta team coached (in the interim) by former USL Lion Rob Valentino. Brooks Lennon, an important part of the offense, led Atlanta with eight assists on the year, but was injured in the Miami series.

The winner of today’s game moves on to the Eastern Conference final — a game the Lions have not yet reached.

“It’s an important week and we obviously are trying to prepare the team the best way that we can,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said ahead of the match. “The preparation has been good, the responsibility of the players and the dedication and attention to their responsibility to be ready for our game on Sunday is first class. The guys who came back from their national teams, everybody is healthy and we’re good. They’ve had the chance already to train with us, so we have the roster complete. So, we’re ready. We’re just getting the last few things and details for the next two days, but our mentality is there.”

Orlando City will be without Mason Stajduhar (lower leg). Atlanta will be without Lennon (shoulder), Edwin Mosquera (knee), and Quentin Westberg (concussion protocol). 

Match Content

Official Lineups

Orlando City (4-2-3-1)

Goalkeeper: Pedro Gallese.

Defenders: Rafael Santos, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, Dagur Dan Thorhallsson.

Defensive Midfielders: Cesar Araujo, Wilder Cartagena.

Attacking Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Martin Ojeda, Facundo Torres.

Forward: Ramiro Enrique.

Bench: Javier Otero, Luca Petrasso, Kyle Smith, David Brekalo, Felipe, Nico Lodeiro, Luis Muriel, Jack Lynn, Duncan McGuire.

Atlanta United (3-5-2)

Goalkeeper: Brad Guzan.

Defenders: Luis Abram, Derrick Williams, Stian Gregersen.

Wingbacks/Midfielders: Pedro Amador, Ajani Fortune, Dax McCarty, Bartosz Slisz, Saba Lobjanidze.

Forwards: Aleksey Miranchuk, Jamal Thiare.

Bench: Matt Edwards, Ronald Hernandez, Luke Brennan, Noah Cobb, Josh Cohen, Tristan Muyumba, Xande Silva, Daniel Rios, Tyler Wolff.

Referees

REF: Armando Villarreal.
AR1: Kathryn Nesbitt.
AR2: Chris Elliott.
4TH: Pierre-Luc Lauziere.
VAR: Greg Dopka.
AVAR: Mike Kampmeinert.

How to Watch

Match Time: 3:30 p.m.

Venue: Inter&Co Stadium — Orlando.

TV/Live Stream: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV.

Radio:  Real Radio 104.1 FM (English), Mega 97.1 (Spanish).

Twitter: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow along at @TheManeLand, as well as Orlando City’s official Twitter feed (@OrlandoCitySC).

Enjoy the match. Go City!

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Opinion

The Case for Starting Luis Muriel Against Atlanta

Muriel’s game is tailor made to help Orlando get the result in what will likely be a tight contest.

Published

2 days ago

on

November 22, 2024

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

For the second season in a row, Orlando City finds itself hosting a match in the Eastern Conference semifinals. It was a scenario that was far less likely this year, with the Lions watching as all three seeds above them crashed out in the first round, leaving OCSC as the highest-seeded team still standing in the East. Last year’s semifinal match didn’t go so well, with 10-man Orlando falling to the eventual champion Columbus Crew in extra time. So, how do the Lions avoid that fate this year and advance to the Eastern Conference final for the first time?

For starters, they can succeed on each of Dave Rohe’s three keys to victory! I’d like to make an addition though, and campaign for Oscar Pareja to start Luis Muriel instead of Ivan Angulo. To be clear, it’s not that I have an axe to grind against Angulo, as he’s largely ranged from solid to good when starting out on the left wing. For my money though, this match is tailor made for Muriel and giving him the start could help Orlando get through to the next round without needing to resort to extra time or penalties.

It’s not unreasonable to expect Sunday’s game to play out in a similar manner to Orlando’s 2-1 Decision Day loss to Atlanta, in which the visitors had 34% of the ball to OCSC’s 66%. True, part of that disparity was down to Atlanta’s 2-0 lead after 16 minutes, which allowed the visitors to sit back, bunker, and protect what they had. Even if the game had remained scoreless for longer though, Atlanta probably would likely have ceded possession anyway and looked to play defensively and hit on the counter. They rolled out a compact 4-2-3-1 in that game, but deployed a 3-5-2 in their last two games against Miami, and they might do so again after its effectiveness.

With Orlando likely to have the lion’s share (hehe) of the ball, and Atlanta sitting deep, there figures to be less room for Angulo to deploy his electric pace. OCSC will probably need to make things happen in the “half-court,” with an emphasis on moving the ball quickly, making clever runs, and finding those runs with creative and accurate passes.

Enter Luis Muriel. The Colombian Designated Player had a slow start to life with Orlando City but has come on strong in recent months, excelling in a super sub role and frequently making an impact in games off the bench. In 56 minutes against Charlotte in Game 3, he completed two dribbles, played one key pass and one through ball, and took three shots, with one on target, one off target, and one blocked. He doesn’t offer Angulo’s speed, but he has maybe the best vision and range of passing of anyone on the team, he’s an outstanding dribbler, and he’s a calm and capable finisher.

He hasn’t been asked to do a ton of traditional striker work during his resurgence, but Muriel has excelled at setting up teammates and creating chances, as evidenced by the litany of key passes littering his stat sheet. Those attributes could be hugely important in breaking Atlanta down, and with two key passes and two completed dribbles against them in just 22 minutes on Decision Day, he’s already proven he can be effective against the Five Stripes.

Another thing that could help the Lions in starting Muriel, is that it would almost certainly take Atlanta by surprise. Oscar Pareja isn’t exactly known for tweaking his lineup on a game-to-game basis, vastly preferring to find an XI that works and stick with it religiously. As long as everyone’s healthy, that lineup has featured Angulo starting with Muriel coming off the bench, and flipping the script would certainly be an unexpected variation that Atlanta might not be expecting. At this level, teams are good enough to adjust on short notice, but you also take every possible edge that you can find, and a lineup shift could be exactly that.

In short, as much as I like Angulo, I think Muriel should get the call in his place on Sunday. The veteran’s combination of vision, passing ability, and dribbling makes him uniquely suited to help unlock defenses, which will be crucial in a game where Orlando City is likely to dominate possession. I don’t think it’s likely to happen given Papi’s consistency with his lineups, but the unexpected move could give the Lions the edge they’re looking for. Vamos Orlando!

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