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How Much Longer will Duncan McGuire be Dunc-ing on Orlando City’s Opponents?

A look into Duncan McGuire’s tenure with Orlando City and an evaluation of what the next few months may look like for him now that he has returned from the Olympics.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

I love dunking. Oreos, Dunkaroos, my son in the pool, basketballs on a lowered rim — I love all types of dunking. You do too, I know you do. In fact, I think dunking is universally loved by everyone, except the NCAA during the 1960s, when they outlawed dunking in basketball because Lew Alcindor (now known as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar) was unstoppable and they were trying to find a way to make college basketball games more interesting.

Frédéric Weis probably also does not love dunking (France, Olympics, basketball, this is the time of all times to reference that dunk), but that may be it for those who were or are anti-dunk. I also love Dunkin’, and their slogan, “America runs on Dunkin’,” which Orlando City fans co-opted to Orlando runs on Duncan (McGuire), who is the subject of my focus this week. Duncan has returned from the Olympics but the question on all of our minds now is: for how long?

That we are even asking that question two years into McGuire’s professional career is a testament to his skill and will, because he is one of only four players from the entire 2023 MLS SuperDraft (88 selections) to have played more than 2,500 MLS minutes, and as the sixth overall pick, he was drafted four spots behind teammate Shak Mohammed, who has played only five MLS minutes in his career thus far. MLS draftees generally do not blossom so quickly that they are European targets after their first season, though Orlando City has had more success than most in the SuperDraft, as they drafted Cyle Larin, Chris Mueller and Daryl Dike, all of whom play(ed) in Europe after starting their careers in Orlando.

While Duncan was not Orlando City’s top pick in 2023 he was still a top six overall pick, so he did come in with some pedigree, but he was not a player who came up playing on youth national teams and with the expectation that he would walk right into minutes as a professional player. He did not play in either of his first two professional matches, and for the opening half of the 2023 season he generally sat behind Ercan Kara and then came in as a sub at some point in the final third of the game. But in those limited minutes he showed that his style of play was better suited to partnering with the rest of the Orlando City attack than that of Kara, leading to Kara’s return to Europe and McGuire taking over as the team’s primary striker.

Looking at his stats in 2023, it is easy to see why he took over that starting role, as using stats found on fbref.com, McGuire finished tied for 12th in goals (13), was third in goals per 90 minutes (0.84), and led MLS in shots-on-target percentage (72.7%), percentage of shots that became goals (39%), and goals – expected goals (+7.7). In general, I do not love bringing in expected goals as a stat, but in some cases it can be instructive, and in this case I think it is, because expected goals measure the average likelihood of a player scoring a goal from a specific location. That means McGuire scored 7.7 more goals than the average player would have been expected to score from where he took his shots in 2023.

Here are his 2023 MLS shots, courtesy of fotmob.com’s shot chart (the red circle is his final goal of 2023, because the site does not have a view without at least one shot highlighted):

Interestingly, that shot from near the midfield line has an expected goal value of 0.03, meaning the coders who set the values expect a goal about once in every 33 shots from there. I disagree. Vehemently.

Coming back to Duncan, let’s look at how he has been doing in 2024 as compared to 2023 in those same categories where he did so well, with one additional stat added in for comparison purposes (MLS rank among qualified players is shown in parentheses for the metrics; t means tied for):

Yes, the numbers on the right do not look quite as impressive as those on the left, as there are no top 10 rankings in any of these metrics so far this year. However, McGuire’s 2024 numbers are not bad, they are just not quite as good as 2023, except for the fact that when he shoots it on target he scores at exactly the same clip as he did in 2023, which is likely not coincidental and is a product of his shooting proficiency.

With about one quarter of the season left to play, he will have plenty of chances to increase his goal tally (unless he’s transferred out), and he also can make some improvements on the other percentage-based metrics as well. I do not think he will get to 13 goals again, but he has a shot to get to 10, which could make him the third or fourth (depending on if Facundo Torres also scores 10 goals) Orlando City player ever to have multiple 10+ goals in an MLS season. McGuire also now has 20 MLS goals in his first two seasons, and I expect he will get a few more before the end of the 2024 campaign, which I will come back to after a quick detour to look at those 20 total goals.

That 20 goals made for a nice round number, so I took a look at this decade (the 2020s) to see how many players in their age 23 or younger season had scored at least 20 MLS goals. The answer: 17. My dad, the world’s foremost pointer outer (go with it) of the prevalence of how often 17 shows up in the world is nodding his head and saying he knew it would be 17.

For those wondering, the leader this decade in goals scored by young players is FC Dallas forward Jesús Ferreira, who has scored 43 goals and will not turn 24 until this December. Ferreira has scored those 43 goals in 8,950 MLS minutes, McGuire’s 20 goals were scored in only 2,730 MLS minutes, the fewest of any of those 17 players. Duncan’s career MLS goals per 90 minutes is 0.66, which ranks him first among those 17 young players and also fourth in all of MLS (among players of any age) in this decade. The other three in the top four (Giorgos Giakoumakis, Chicho Arango, and Cucho Hernandez — presented in order of rank) were/are all Designated Players and all had/have salaries at least 20 times higher than McGuire’s, according to the MLS Salary Guide.

I mentioned that I would come back to the fact that I expect Duncan to score a few more goals this season, and that is because I think that he will finish this season with Orlando City. I have no inside information. I just think it makes more sense for him to finish this MLS season strongly and then depart in the MLS off-season, which is right smack in the middle of European seasons, when there will be teams who really need a striker due to injury or a relegation battle or because they are chasing promotion — like Barnsley was several years ago when the club made a loan deal for Daryl Dike to try to win promotion to the Premier League. It is no secret that McGuire wants to play in Europe, and he clearly has the ability to do so based on his stats and the eye test, but as it usually comes down to, it will be about timing and the purchase price.

Transfermarkt values Duncan at €5 million (approximately $5.46 million), third highest on Orlando City behind Facundo Torres (€14 million, $15.26 million) and Martín Ojeda (€6 million, $6.54 million), tied for 33rd overall among all MLS players, and tied for 12th among players 23 or younger. For a player who cost Orlando City nothing to acquire, any compensation would be nearly pure profit, so the team has an incentive to sell him as opposed to letting him play out his contract and leave for free.

McGuire had an opportunity to break out at the Olympics and drive up immediate interest, but the U.S. Olympic Team was not really set up in a way to maximize, or really even utilize at all, his talents, and he did not contribute any goals or assists. I do not think this Olympic performance will affect how talent evaluators and other teams view him, but had he scored some goals or contributed more than just his trademark max effort at all times, that could have been a catalyst for a move before the end of the MLS transfer window on Aug. 14.

Alas for Duncan, it did not go the way he had hoped, but as he always does, he left it all out on the field…and then left France the following day (Saturday), returning to Orlando in time to sub in during the Leagues Cup match on Sunday night. That’s impressive dedication, and it indicated to me that he is locked in on getting on the field and showing what he can do again.

He did return to a different Orlando City team though, one with a scorching-hot Ramiro Enrique playing in what was McGuire’s striker role and on a five, which became six, game scoring run. We may see the return of supersub Duncan for a while, reminiscent of his first few months in 2023, but I think that by the end of the season we will see McGuire back as the starting striker. If so, it will mean he is in good form, because Enrique is only going to be beaten out by a deserving player.

I think this is a best-case scenario for Orlando City — a highly motivated McGuire who wants his spot back and who wants to show European evaluators that they should bring him across the Atlantic, and a highly motivated Enrique, who wants to keep his starting spot and who will want to be the clear choice to be the starter when Duncan eventually does leave.

Orlando City fans are in for 90 minutes of strong striker play in every match now that McGuire is back and Enrique has come on like the proverbial freight train, and I think we have a good chance to see another end-of-season run coming for the Lions down the stretch.

As the Pride’s Kerry Abello always says, vamos!

Opinion

Wednesday’s Decisions May Haunt Orlando City During Season’s Home Stretch

In-game decisions proved costly during Wednesday’s loss and may have an effect as the season winds down.

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Image of Inter&Co Stadium at night.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City sits seventh in the Eastern Conference, and while five points separate the Lions and the three teams immediately outside the playoff picture, things are far from comfortable. OCSC just battled one of those teams, Toronto FC, to a draw, and will welcome the other two, D.C. United and New York City FC, to Inter.co Stadium on back-to-back Saturdays.

There are six teams within six points of Orlando, and while OCSC has five more games to play, two of its opponents (FC Cincinnati and D.C. United) have a game in hand. All this is to say that at this stage of the season, small moments, decisions, and mistakes can have a huge effect on the outcome of the campaign. Wednesday’s 3-3 draw with Toronto FC provided an ample reminder of that fact.

The starting lineup for that game was an interesting one to say the least. With Robin Jansson unavailable due to a knock, and Griffin Dorsey out with a lingering back issue, Iago started next to David Brekalo at center back, while Ivan Angulo got the start at right back. I have no issue with Iago getting the start, as this roster isn’t exactly overflowing with proven options at center back. Angulo playing right back was the much more curious of Martin Perelman’s decisions for me, and not because I have anything against Angulo. He has not so quietly taken over Kyle Smith’s role as a guy who has played just about every position this year, and for the most part has done anywhere from good to serviceable in the process.

Rather, why put Angulo in that position when you have Zakaria Taifi, a right back by trade, ready and available? The 21-year-old hasn’t been perfect with the senior team this year, but he’s actually used to playing the position, and that counts for something. Angulo is at his best when using his speed to chase guys down and recover the ball, but tends to struggle defending 1-v-1 and with his defensive positioning because, well, he’s a winger by trade. Playing Taifi at fullback and Angulo in the midfield would have freed up the Colombian to make more of an impact higher up the field. Plus, the man tasked with covering when the right back went forward, Eduard Atuesta, isn’t exactly known for his defensive prowess either. Putting Angulo and Atuesta on the same side and saddling them with a lot of defensive responsibilities created a vulnerability in the Orlando lineup, and it isn’t remotely surprising that all three of Toronto’s goals either started or were finished on the Lions’ right flank.

To be fair, it’s possible that playing Taifi at right back wouldn’t have made a difference. After all, the defense has been giving away goals at an alarming rate regardless of who’s back there this season. I just struggle to get on board with the decision to not deploy a natural right back, particularly one that’s played just under 850 league minutes this year.

The other thing that stuck out to me was the substitution patterns, particularly during the later stages of the game. While I liked the decision to bring on Daryl Dike with the team chasing the game, as well as throwing Braian Ojeda on after the Lions went ahead in an attempt to inject fresh legs into the midfield, I have questions about how things went the rest of the way. For one thing, while Taifi eventually entered the game in place of Atuesta after Toronto had equalized, why not make that change immediately after Orlando took the lead? I understand wanting to keep Atuesta on while chasing a winner, but with how shaky OCSC looked on its right flank, effectively closing down the game was probably going to take more than simply bringing on Ojeda.

Then there’s the fact that two substitutions went unused altogether, basically three if you account for the fact that Atuesta came off in the fourth of five minutes of stoppage time. Orlando is in the midst of playing three games in eight days and may not have Justin Ellis or Jansson available at the weekend after both missed out on the midweek game. With a massive game against D.C. United looming large on the horizon, you want to be as fresh as possible, but Harvey Sarajian is the only player who got any meaningful sort of rest after coming off in the 67th minute. The Lions didn’t have the strongest possible bench with Tyrese Spicer, Marco Pasalic, Ellis, Jansson, and Dorsey all unavailable for various reasons, but I wouldn’t have minded seeing the likes of Joran Gerbet, Bernardo Rhein, or Tiago make appearances to spell some of the starters—especially once Dike’s goal hit the back of the net.

At the end of the day, while a road draw perhaps isn’t the worst result in the world considering the team’s struggles away from home this season, the fact that Orlando dropped two points late is brutal, however you slice it. Those two extra points would have given the Lions four points of breathing room between the Lions and the chasing pack, and to keep the majority of the starters on for so long but still end up dropping points is an extra kick in the teeth. It’ll hurt even more if the team looks tired and flat on Saturday and can’t get the job at home against a D.C. United side that’s breathing down its neck.


Of course, it’s worth pointing out that in soccer, as in life, there are no guarantees. We have no way of knowing whether starting Taifi would have fixed Orlando’s issues on the right side, or if he and other defensive subs coming on immediately after Dike’s goal would have prevented Toronto’s winner. We should have a better idea Saturday night if leaving two subs in the chamber was a bad idea, but it’s also possible that if Orlando does use all of its changes that the team doesn’t claw itself out of the 2-1 hole it was in. Regardless, I think there’s something to be said for putting yourself in the best possible position to succeed at this point in the year. I don’t think OCSC did that during Wednesday’s game, and the decisions made during that contest could well hurt the Lions on Saturday as well. Here’s hoping that isn’t the case. Vamos Orlando!

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Opinion

Orlando City’s Final Playoff Push Filled with Challenges

The Lions will need to contend with a busy schedule, tricky opponents, and injury concerns while pushing to secure a playoff spot.

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Image of Martin Perelman celebrating his first MLS win as coach.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City has seven games remaining in the 2026 MLS season, which means that crunch time is officially upon us. The Lions currently sit seventh in the Eastern Conference with 34 points but are only one point ahead of FC Cincinnati in 10th place. As a result, OCSC’s final matches of the season are of massive importance, but the men in purple will need to deal with a number of different hurdles if they want to keep the longest active postseason streak in the league alive for another year.

Fixture Congestion

As has been the case with much of a season that went on a two-month break for the 2026 World Cup, Orlando City is staring down the barrel of another busy month. Of the Lions’ seven remaining matches, six will take place in a jam-packed 21-day stretch during the month of October, before Decision Day against the New England Revolution on Nov. 7. Things get started Saturday at home against the Columbus Crew, and then OCSC plays away against Toronto on Wednesday, home against D.C. United on Saturday, Oct. 17, home against New York City FC on Saturday, Oct. 24, before finishing the month with back-to-back away games against the Chicago Fire on Oct. 28, and against Charlotte FC on Halloween. While there’s an even split of home and away matches, it’s still an absolutely hellish stretch.

Fortunately, most teams are in the same boat, and there’s a week in between the home matches against D.C. and NYCFC that may help a little, but it’s still a lot of games in a short amount of time. That won’t be anything new to this team after how busy August and September were, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be any easier to deal with.

Tricky Opponents

Let’s talk more about the games themselves, specifically the teams Orlando will be up against, because it’s an interesting mix. I wouldn’t classify the set of teams that the Lions will face down the stretch as either easy or difficult. Rather, it’s a tricky bunch that should both provide some good opportunities to pick up points, while also throwing up some pretty unappetizing matchups. First up is the Crew. The bad news is that they knocked Orlando out of the U.S. Open Cup in fairly convincing fashion, but on the flip side, the game is at home and the team will be well-rested — two conditions that usually lend themselves to OCSC playing fairly well. Hitting the road to Toronto on short rest feels like a recipe for disaster, but the Reds haven’t been playing great after losing 3-0 to Orlando back in September. Then it’s another game on short rest, but it comes against a D.C. side sitting in 11th and is winless in its last three.

After that, there’s a week off before welcoming an NYCFC team that has been in the midst of a free fall down the table, and then road trips to two strong teams in Chicago and Charlotte, both of which are on short rest. The team gets a week to prepare before facing another strong side on Decision Day in the Revs.

On paper, the games against Columbus, D.C., and NYCFC feel winnable. While Orlando lost to the latter two teams on the road earlier in the year, I think this version of Orlando is better than what it was in March and April when it lost to those teams, and the Lions have been infinitely better at home than on the road.

Conversely, I’ll be thanking my lucky stars if any points are picked up from back-to-back road trips to Chicago and Charlotte on short rest, while playing the Revs on Decision Day feels like a tough task even at home.

The backdrop of all this is the fact that the six teams immediately below Orlando in the table are all within at least five points of it. Plus, the Lions play four of those six teams in NYCFC, D.C., Columbus, and Toronto. At this point in the season, every game matters, but each of those contests takes on added importance because of how much of an impact they can have on the table. Win, and you put distance between yourself and one of the teams below you. Lose, and that team reels you in a little bit more if not outright leapfrogging you altogether.


Health and Availability

While Orlando’s list of unavailable players doesn’t look nearly as bad as it has at times this season, there are still some big absences that the team will have to contend with.

For one thing, barring a run all the way to the MLS Cup final, Tyrese Spicer’s season is over after he had surgery to repair a Jones fracture in his right foot. For those of you keeping score at home, that is now the third Jones fracture suffered by an Orlando City player this season, after Robin Jansson had surgery to repair one before the season started, and Braian Ojeda went under the knife to fix one back on Aug. 6. While the attacking positions aren’t looking as thin as they once were now that Martin Ojeda is fit and Marco Pasalic is staying put, Spicer was in the midst of an excellent season and had six goals and two assists in just 869 league minutes. Not having his spark off the bench is a big miss, and it also provides less options when it comes to rotation.

Then there’s the cases of Griffin Dorsey, and more recently, Justin Ellis. Let’s start with Dorsey, who hasn’t played since going off at halftime of the 3-2 win over Atlanta United due to a back issue, and while he carried a questionable designation for Orlando’s most recent game against the Philadelphia Union, he ultimately did not play. Presumably, two extra weeks of recovery will see him ready to go this weekend, but even if he does make a much-needed return to the field, Orlando needs to be careful with managing him.

Even after missing four games through injury, Dorsey has still played the fifth-most league minutes on the team behind Ivan Angulo, Maxime Crepeau, David Brekalo, and Robin Jansson — in that order. Angulo is the type of physical specimen that should be studied in a lab, while Crepeau, Brekalo, and Jansson aren’t asked to do nearly as much running as Dorsey is when he’s healthy. The Lions’ defense hasn’t been great all season, but it was mostly doing enough to keep the team in games before the right back went onto the shelf. Without him, it’s given up 10 goals in four games across all competitions and has won just one of those contests. I understand the temptation to keep Dorsey on the field as much as possible, given what he adds both offensively and defensively, but Martin Perelman needs to use him in tandem with Zakaria Taifi or risk losing the defender for another extended period of time when Orlando can least afford it.

That brings us to Justin Ellis. If you watched the United States Men’s National Team take down Canada 1-0 on Tuesday, then you probably got an almighty scare when Ellis went down after a physical play during the first half and had to leave the field after receiving treatment. He eventually returned in style and scored the game’s only goal, but he was visibly hobbled in the minutes after he came back on, and left the stadium at halftime to have an MRI done.

While we haven’t heard any updates since then and no news is presumably good news, caution may be needed when it comes to Saturday’s match against the Crew in order to prevent the injury turning into a more long-term issue.

Outside of Spicer, Braian Ojeda, and any lingering issues for Dorsey and Ellis, the team should have a clean bill of health to begin the final run-in, so that’s good news.


At the end of the day, the home stretch of this season is not going to be easy. The Lions will need to contend with fixture congestion, games against tricky opponents that have huge implications in the standings, and the ever-present injury and availability challenges. The Eastern Conference table has razor thin margins at the moment, and there’s very little room for error. We’re about to learn a lot about what this team is really made of over the course of the next seven games, for better or worse. Here’s hoping we like what we see. Vamos Orlando!

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Opinion

Orlando City Must Heed August Lessons Ahead of Crowded September

Orlando City would be wise to take the lessons it learned in August and apply them to a packed September slate.

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Image of Martin Perelman celebrating his first MLS win as coach.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

If it feels like Orlando City has played a boatload of matches during the month of August, get ready to experience some deja vu. After playing a whopping seven games in 31 days this month, the Lions will compete six times in 30 days during September. The August slate was a mixed bag for the men in purple. The team won just two of its seven contests and looked leggy as the days drew on after returning to league play with two strong performances over the San Jose Earthquakes and Nashville SC at the end of July. There were certainly mitigating factors, as the Lions battled injuries in areas with questionable depth, but there are a few lessons that have been dished out over the past month that can hold the Lions in good stead ahead of another period of fixture congestion.

Address the Left Back Situation

Fortunately, steps have already been taken to handle the first item on our list. Left back has continuously been a problem for Orlando City this year, as Adrian Marin largely hasn’t looked at the level Orlando needs him to be. Bernardo Rhein showed enough promise to displace him and played well, but he went down injured and Martin Perelman has had to use a combination of Marin and Zakaria Taifi (a natural right back) ever since. Taifi has been inconsistent on the left, and is susceptible to being beaten down the flank and over the top at the back post, and he certainly looks more comfortable on the right than the left.

Thursday’s loan signing of left back Vinicius Nogueira gives the Lions another natural left back to work with, and his arrival will hopefully help solve the problems in that area of the field. If it doesn’t, then it might be wise to consider shifting Brekalo out wide until Rhein returns to fitness, although that solution would depend on Iago, Marin, or possibly Wilder Cartagena being able to capably deputize at center back.

Don’t Be Afraid to Rotate

While rotation in certain areas was difficult at times due to absences at times of Rhein, Marin, Braian Ojeda, Martin Ojeda, and Marco Pasalic, Orlando looked noticeably leggy as August stretched on. Antoine Griezmann has yet to come off the field in a game he’s played for the Lions, and Justin Ellis has started all but three of the nine games the team has played after the World Cup break. Considering they are currently the team’s two most dynamic players, Orlando needs them at their best, and it wasn’t surprising to see loose touches, sloppy passing, and slow decision-making start to creep in as the month drew itself out. Fortunately, Perelman has shown himself more amenable to finding rest for Ellis lately, as the youngster has played just 308 of the last possible 540 minutes since. That will need to continue in order for him to be at his best, and Griezmann almost certainly needs to start being used in a similar way so as not to risk an injury.

Mix-Up the On-Field Approach

When Orlando’s fluid, position-less style of football works, as it did against San Jose, it’s almost unstoppable. The new-look style is at its best against opponents that want to come out and attack, as it emphasizes flooding numbers forward in transition and hitting opponents on the counterattack. When it doesn’t work, in the way we saw during the first half against Real Salt Lake, it’s extremely ineffective. Players need to be fit and rested to do the level of running that’s asked of them, and against teams that are content to sit back and stack numbers behind the ball, it can be hard to create chances when the Lions lack a traditional focal point up front to play off of.

By contrast, when Daryl Dike came on in the second half of the RSL game and Griezmann shifted into midfield, OCSC looked like a completely different team that arguably should have scored more than the two goals it managed. Perelman did well to make the correct adjustments, but there needs to be a willingness to be more flexible with the lineups and approach from the opening whistle — both for rotational and strategic purposes.


In soccer, as in life, there are no guarantees of anything. With that said, if OCSC can successfully incorporate those three August takeaways into its September campaign, it should theoretically put the team in a good position to succeed. Vamos Orlando!

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