Orlando Pride
The Pride’s Offense is Alive but Recently Has Not Thrived
An evaluation of the Pride’s offensive performance in their three games since the NWSL resumed play after the Olympic break.
The Pride keep winning, and former New York Jets coach Herm Edwards said it best: “you play to win the game. Hello!” Whether the result looks like free-flowing and beautiful soccer or brute force, rough-and-tumble soccer that looks more like (American) football, in the end all that matters is the scoreboard, and the Pride are still undefeated and in the midst of their second six-game winning streak of the season.
That said, since the Pride came back to NWSL play after the Olympic break, they have not quite looked as dominant offensively as they did pre-Olympics. The defense remains rock solid, with zero goals given up in all three games since the return (note: zero goals in the last three games and only one goal given up in the last seven NWSL games, wow!), but the offense looks slightly off, or as off as a team can be that scores in and wins three straight games. Are these champagne problems, or is there something bubbling up that will need ironing out as the calendar turns to autumn and playoff season nears? I do not want to be the male version of Debbie Downer (Andrew Alarmist? Hopefully there will be no need to workshop this any further.), but I think it is worth exploring.
Let’s take a look at some numbers for the Pride that illustrate how the offensive performance during the most recent three games looks as compared to prior games. In the chart below, taken from data provided on fbref.com and excluding opposition own goals, are the totals for the first 16 games of the season in the first row, the last three of those first 16 games in the second row, and then the most recent three games in the third row.
With the exception of the percentage of shots the Pride put on target, games 17-19 were worse across the board in every other category when compared to the three games immediately prior to the Olympic break and to the first 16 games overall. Worse is a relative term, because if you compare the “worse” performances in those most recent three games to the rest of the NWSL throughout the full season, the Pride’s performance compares favorably in many categories, even though when compared to their own earlier season performances it seems like a downturn.
Compared to every other NWSL team’s full season metrics, the Pride’s last three games are demonstrably better (blue highlighted cells are where the Pride’s output is better) than most other teams in goals, shots on target, and expected goals. The Pride are worse in the conversion stats, goals as a percentage of shots and as a percentage of shots on target, and the number of shots they are expected to take per goal (based on expected goals scored). This is the part in every article where I add my view on expected goals; I think this data is useful in terms of looking at whether the Pride are taking shots from dangerous locations, but I do not actually put a lot of faith into whether a goal really should or should not be “expected” from that location.
If you do the PhD-level mathematics of counting the blue cells as a percentage of the total cells, the Pride are better in 47.4% of the cells above, which ranks them seventh among all teams. This is, of course, not an even comparison, as it is three games for the Pride as compared to every other team’s full 19 games, but the point is that even during a recent “down” period for the Pride’s offense the team is still in the top half of the 14 team NWSL and is performing better than all but three teams in the offensive category that matters most — goals per game. And the Pride are performing better than every team in the league in another somewhat significant measure, the league standings. Take that, Andrew Alarmist.
Alas, we cannot abrogate (SAT word alert) Andrew Alarmist just yet. We still need to take a look at Barbra Banda and what has been going on with her recently, as she has zero goals or assists in each of the last three games. Back in July I wrote an article about the historic pace Banda was on, and it is important to preface a look at the recent “poor performance” by Banda by remembering that with 17 goal contributions (12 goals, 5 assists) she is already tied for the 11th best single season in NWSL history, and with her next goal or assist she will move into a tie for 10th. If we look at the same data for Banda as we did for the full team earlier, we can see that her performance mirrors the Pride’s, which should not be surprising, considering of how much of a focal point she is for their offense.
Clearly the zeroes in the goals categories stand out as compared to the other numbers, but the big takeaway for me was really was around the quality of her shots. This is where I think expected goals really shines, because like a standardized test, it is the same for everyone, and so you can see that the locations of Banda’s shots pre-Olympics (918 minutes over 12 games) were much better than they have been recently (257 minutes over 3 games).
Banda is averaging nearly the same number of shots per 90 minutes as she was pre-Olympics (5.3 shots per 90 mins post-Olympics vs. 5.8 shots per 90 mins pre-Olympics), so the fact that her expected goals per game in the post-Olympics games is half as high indicates that the shots she has taken recently have been from more acute angles and/or farther away from the goal. Correspondingly, her shots on target percentage have dropped, which should not be a surprise based on the expected goals evaluation that the shots she has been taking are from more difficult locations.
On the flipside of the lack of goal contributions by Banda though is, once again, that the team has won all three of its recent games, even with her not scoring. Marta has now scored six goals on the season and Adriana and Summer Yates both have five, making the Pride the only team in the NWSL with four players with at least five goals scored this season. It is always better to have multiple threats, and the Pride are now rolling out four players that force the opposition to game plan against.
To go back to my question earlier, I think that it is indeed a champagne problem for the Pride that since the Olympic break they are winning games by close scores as opposed to walloping their opponents. Bill James, one of the originators of analytics in baseball, felt that run differential was more important than a team’s actual record in terms of determining who the best team in baseball really was, and if we apply this same concept to soccer, we would look at goal differential as the corresponding measure. The Pride are +25 thus far this season, 39% better than the team ranked next behind them and on track for one of the best seasons in league history, if not the best.
To give myself a little bit of credit, I think it was fair to look at the recent games with a discerning eye, but if Julie Doyle was not offside by inches against Gotham, that game is 3-0 instead of 2-0, and Banda also had multiple shots that were cleared off the line against the Red Stars, so that game could have been a multiple-goal victory as well.
To go back to the baseball well one more time, sometimes the Moneyball idea that you can evaluate sports by only looking at the numbers can be deceiving. You have to watch the games too. The Pride have clearly been the better team during all three of their recent games and Banda has been a force to be reckoned with as well. They just have been inches away from showing it both on the field and in the box scores.
I expect that a positive regression to the mean is coming for the Pride’s offense, hopefully as soon as Friday night in the Pride’s rematch with the Current!
Orlando Pride
2024 Orlando Pride Season in Review: Luana
Her season was over almost before it began, but Luana was still a key part of the group with the 2024 Orlando Pride.
The Orlando Pride signed Brazilian international central midfielder Luana on Dec. 13, 2023, looking to bolster that area of the club after spending resources beefing up the back line and the attack. She agreed to a deal that runs through 2025 with a mutual option year in 2026. The Pride’s central midfield was a strength throughout the team’s 2024 championship run, but the former Corinthians star sadly wasn’t part of it after the first few games.
After appearing in the Pride’s first three matches of the season, Luana was listed on the availability report as an excused absence for three games before a shocking announcement came from the club on April 29— she had been diagnosed with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Luana missed the rest of the season to undergo treatment. Thankfully, the treatment looks to have worked, with reports in mid-November that her recent scans had shown no sign of the disease.
Luana’s true impact on the team goes beyond what took place in the season’s first three matches. We will never forget players holding up their hands in an ‘L’ shape to honor her when celebrating goals or the pictures of her with her teammates following her treatment. Clearly, she was an inspiration to the team and it’s not difficult to imagine how her illness may have strengthened a group as close as the 2024 Pride. Clearly, she was never far from the other players’ thoughts.
Although she missed almost the entire season, Luana is a member of the Pride who played and is still with the team. As such, we will honor her and look back at her 2024 season.
Statistical Breakdown
Luana made her Pride debut on opening day, March 16, in Orlando’s 2-2 road draw at Racing Louisville FC. She started that match and appeared in the team’s first three games (two starts), playing 192 of the available 270 minutes. Luana did not have a goal contribution, but depending on where you look, she did record a shot attempt (off target). Her stats page on the NWSL website does not show her having a shot, but her game log on the site does. The Pride’s game notes and statistics page have a shot, so we’ll say one shot. She was effective in helping control the middle of the pitch, winning two of four tackle attempts (50%), tallying three interceptions, and winning four headed duels. She completed 80% of her 75 pass attempts across the three games, including a successful long ball and a cross. Her bite in the midfield shows in her five fouls conceded, six fouls drawn, and two yellow cards. In the two games after her debut in Louisville — in which Orlando rallied from two goals down inside of 19 minutes and got a road result, despite Kylie Strom being sent off in the 62nd minute — the Pride conceded only once in the run of play.
Best Game
The Sao Paulo, Brazil native’s best match came in her second start of the season, a 1-1 home draw against the Chicago Red Stars. The Pride allowed only a Mallory Swanson goal in the match, with Luana starting and playing 71 minutes, completing 77.3% of her passes, committing two fouls (including a yellow card), and drawing three free kicks from the opposition. The Pride were dominant in the match, out-shooting the visitors 21-9, with Luana helping the team keep 59.2% of the possession in the match. Although the Pride drew their third consecutive match to start the season, it was a promising performance that the Pride built on, winning their next eight games — an NWSL record.
2024 Final Grade
The Mane Land staff cannot give Luana an official grade due to not meeting the minimum number of minutes played (400), so she will receive an incomplete for the 2024 season. However, we can (and do) give her a 10 out of 10 for her courage and grace during an extremely difficult time.
2025 Outlook
It’s difficult to say what Luana’s outlook will be for next season, as there are obviously some unknown variables. If her scans remain clean, as we all hope, she would presumably work to recover her fitness and could compete for a starting spot in central midfield in 2025. The Pride had the best defense in the league in 2024 and that was after losing someone who started two of the first three matches and played 45 minutes off the bench in the second game. Conceivably, the Pride could be an even better team with a healthy Luana on the pitch. Whether she even plays another minute for the club, however, our main concern is that she remains healthy. It would be understandable, for example, if she decided to rethink her career entirely in light of what she’s been through. Thankfully, she has a good support system with the Pride.
Previous Season in Review Articles (Date Posted)
Orlando Pride
2024 Orlando Pride Season in Review: Viviana Villacorta
Viviana Villacorta returned to the field late in the 2024 season. Let’s see how she performed this year.
The Orlando Pride selected Viviana Villacorta with the ninth overall pick of the 2021 NWSL Draft out of UCLA. The defensive midfielder opted to remain in school for her senior season, but tore her ACL shortly after, which kept her out of action for the 2021 NWSL campaign. She suffered an ankle injury in the 2022 season that required surgery and tore her ACL for the second time late in the 2023 season.
Villacorta didn’t re-enter the team until late in the year in 2024, making some league appearances and a playoff appearance as the season wound down. While she didn’t have a significant impact on the championship run, the fact that she got back onto the field was an accomplishment.
Let’s take a look at how Villacorta did in the few minutes she received in 2024.
Statistical Breakdown
Villacorta was in the team for the first time this season on Sept. 28, coming on as a substitute at home against the Houston Dash. She made three regular-season appearances in 2024, starting one — the last game of the season against Seattle Reign FC. She played 69 minutes in the regular season without a goal or an assist, completing 31 of 35 passes (91.2%). Villacorta attempted one shot but it was not on frame. Defensively, she recorded one tackle and two interceptions, commited three fouls, and was not booked.
She also came on as a substitute in the first playoff game against the Chicago Red Stars, making her professional playoff debut. The midfielder played three minutes in the match without a goal contribution, helping to see out the game. She completed four of her five passes (80%).
Best Game
The 25-year-old’s best game has to be her lone start against Seattle on Nov. 2. She had a season-high 26 touches, completed 95% of her 18 passes, and recorded one of her two interceptions in 45 minutes of action. She also took her only shot of the season in that game, though it was off target. She was replaced by regular starter Angelina at halftime.
2024 Final Grade
The Mane Land staff gave Villacorta a 5.5 for the 2022 and 2023 seasons, but she didn’t play enough minutes (400 across all competitions) this year to get a grade. As a result, she receives an incomplete grade for the 2024 NWSL season.
2025 Outlook
Despite suffering multiple season-ending injuries, the Pride continue to believe in Villacorta, signing her to a new contract on July 16 that runs through the 2025 season with a mutual option for 2026. The defensive midfielder has shown her quality when healthy, but she’s been unable to remain on the field for long periods of time. The Pride have also strengthened that position, adding Angelina and Morgan Gautrat to the roster, as well as Luana, who is attempting to work her way back from cancer treatment. As a result, it will be hard for Villacorta to get significant minutes, even if she is able to remain healthy. With her experience, however, she can be a key depth player at the position.
Previous Season in Review Articles (Date Posted)
Orlando Pride
2024 Orlando Pride Season in Review: Mariana Larroquette
The Argentine international’s second season with Orlando did not produce the larger role with the team she may have expected.
In the middle of the 2023 season, the Orlando Pride signed forward Mariana Larroquette, adding her to the roster July 6 on a deal through the 2025 season. The Argentine international represented her country in the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, meaning she didn’t join the Pride until after the competition. Although she was a signing made with an eye toward bolstering the offense, Larroquette made only five appearances in her first season in Orlando — all of them off the bench. With a full preseason with the Pride under her belt, many expected to see her play a more significant role in 2024, but ultimately, it didn’t work out that way. The Pride’s signing of Barbra Banda didn’t help matters for Larroquette in terms of playing time.
Let’s take a look at how Larroquette performed in her second season in Orlando.
Statistical Breakdown
Larroquette made her season debut March 22 against Angel City, which was one of just four appearances during the regular season — all off the bench — logging 48 total minutes. She did not contribute a goal or an assist, failing to attempt a shot. The 32-year-old completed just 41.2% of her 17 passes without a key pass. Larroquette won four of her six tackle attempts (66.7%) and two headed duels. She committed one foul and drew three on the opposition and was not booked.
In the Summer Cup, Larroquette made three appearances, starting once — in the team’s 2-2 draw against CF Monterrey, in which Orlando captured the extra point in penalties. Larroquette played 107 minutes but did not contribute a goal or an assist, attempting three shots but putting neither on target. She completed 68% of her 25 passes but did not create a scoring chance from them. Defensively, she won two headed duels and recorded three interceptions, but she did not attempt a tackle. Larroquette committed one foul in the Summer Cup, drew four on the opposition, and was not booked.
She did not appear in the Pride’s playoff run.
Best Game
Larroquette’s best game has to be the one in which she started and played a season-high 65 minutes — the Pride’s 2-2 draw and 5-4 penalty shootout victory over CF Monterrey in the Summer Cup. Although Larroquette was already off the pitch by the time the shootout took place, she still made her biggest impact in this match, as it was the only game of the year in which she attempted any shots. While she didn’t impact the scoresheet on the attacking end, Larroquette recorded three interceptions in the match as she helped out in the press and defending the Mexican side.
2024 Final Grade
With 155 total minutes across all competitions, Larroquette fell short of the required 400 minutes to qualify for a grade from The Mane Land staff. As a result, she’s given an incomplete for the 2024 NWSL season. She played more in 2024 than she did in 2023, but she was also on the roster all year.
2024 Outlook
Larroquette’s contract runs through the 2025 NWSL season, but the writing may be on the wall after getting few minutes the last two seasons. She’s also on the wrong side of 30 to see much of an increase in that department. This may be an off-season that sees the club part ways with the veteran striker, who may seek a chance to get more minutes elsewhere as she the shelf life on her professional career grows shorter. If she remains on the roster, I would expect her role to remain the same in 2025, giving the club a few minutes here and there later in games and perhaps seeing a larger role in midseason cup competitions.
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