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Wilder Cartagena Must Be Himself Despite Yellow Card Accumulation

An evaluation of Wilder Cartagena’s propensity for earning yellow cards and how that may influence the upcoming playoff game against Charlotte.

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5 hours ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

My wife recently went to a Hoobastank concert at EPCOT, and while standing in line, waiting to be allowed to enter the general admission seating area, she asked one of the Disney employees working the event which band had had the longest line queued up in advance of being allowed to enter. The answer, to her great surprise (and later to mine), was Yellowcard. I have nothing against that band, it just would have taken me approximately 15-20 days worth of guesses to even think of them as generating that much demand.

If you were to ask me which current Orlando City player would be most likely to receive a yellow card, however, that would not even take 15-20 seconds. Since joining Orlando City in 2022, Wilder Cartagena averages 0.35 yellow cards per 90 minutes in MLS regular-season play, or about one yellow card per every three games.

Quick trivia question for our diehard Orlando City fans: Cartagena’s 0.35 yellow cards per 90 minutes ranks fourth all time on the Orlando City leaderboard among players who played at least 1,000 MLS minutes. Who are the three players who received yellow cards more frequently?

I’ll show a table shortly that reveals this answer, but before then I will point out that Cartagena has also played in five MLS playoff games, and he is currently on a…hot?…cold?…terrible and please stop doing this?…streak of earning a yellow card in four consecutive postseason matches. His playoff yellow-cards-per-90-minutes average is a ridiculous 0.85, so for all intents and purposes, one yellow card in every game. That is the kind of performance that gets you…suspended.

More on this after I reveal the answer to the trivia question in the chart below. Thanks to the coders at Opta and fbref.com and their Stathead site for tracking yellow cards received. I enjoyed the trip down memory lane this provided, as during some of those early Orlando City years the team was far better at earning yellow cards than the Lions were at things like scoring goals and winning games. Maybe I actually did not enjoy this as much as I thought.

Without further ado, here are your Orlando City players who most frequently received yellow cards in MLS play:

For all of you who correctly identified Cristian Higuita, Brek Shea and Sebas Méndez without doing any research, I suggest bringing this knowledge of arcane Orlando City trivia and joining us at The Mane Land!

Back to Cartagena and suspensions, MLS rules for the playoffs are that if a player receives three yellow cards during the opening round and conference semifinal games, then they must sit out the next game. So, since Cartagena received two yellow cards during the first two opening-round games against Charlotte, if he receives a yellow card in Game 3, he would be suspended for the conference semifinal, if Orlando City defeats Charlotte.

I have shared similar data before, but while Cartagena may not be the player that most fans or pundits think of when thinking about Orlando City, there is the little matter of the fact that he leads the team in plus-minus (goals scored while a player is on the field minus goals given up while a player is on the field) across all competitions this year:

Not only does he lead the team in plus-minus while he is on the field, he is also one of only two Lions (Cesar Araújo is the other) who has a season-long negative on-off value (negative in this case is good, as on-off is calculated by the goals scored when a player is off the field minus the goals given up while a player is off the field). Cartagena is +22 while on the field and the team was -5 while he was not on the field, so he is a net +27 for the season, an outstanding number.

The website fbref.com tracks on-off for MLS regular season games only, and among non-goalkeepers Cartagena ranked 26th in 2024 and and 24th over the 2023 and 2024 seasons combined, with Orlando City being more than one goal worse per 90 minutes in goal differential when the Peruvian midfielder was not playing. Said another way, having Cartagena play a full 90 minutes during the last two seasons was basically tantamount to Orlando City starting the match with a 1-0 lead.

This was not meant to be a Cartagena fawning session, so let me step down from this soapbox (I do not think the crowd could have been any wilder (see what I did there?) while I was speaking though) and walk down to a place off Ocean Avenue to get back to the topic of yellow cards. I do not regret writing that line.

As mentioned earlier, Cartagena is carrying two yellow cards into the upcoming match with Charlotte, so if (when) he receives one, he would be suspended for the semifinal if Orlando City wins. As he is averaging nearly a yellow card per match in his five-game playoff career, it feels very likely that he will receive one at some point in the game. While it would be devastating for him, and the team, to think about having to play a conference semifinal without him on the field, there is a playoff cliché that applies here first, which is that in the playoffs, teams have to survive and advance and think about games one at a time.

Orlando City cannot play Atlanta or Inter Miami before it plays Charlotte, so the Lions need to play the style that they believe will bring them the best chance of winning. That means Cartagena needs to be a midfield destroyer and not be constantly on edge and trying to avoid a card. During the 2024 season he averaged 2.0 fouls committed per 90 minutes, which is 36th in MLS and 19th among MLS midfielders, and he needs to be the same aggressive player he has been all season. If he is thinking about yellow cards, he is not fully focused on winning, and that will not benefit the Lions.

If Cartagena does receive a yellow card, and as a reminder, he averages 0.85 yellow cards per match in MLS playoff games, so this is quite likely, then I believe it would be most beneficial if it were to happen in the middle third of the match. All cards in the opening third of an elimination match are brutal, as those players are now on the referee’s radar and have to consider the risk of a second yellow on any play they make for the rest of the match. It would be doubly brutal for Cartagena, as he would then also have the extra mental strain of knowing that he is definitely missing the next match if the Lions win, and in an elimination game, one moment of distraction or loss of focus can mean the difference. By the way, Tim Ream, feel free to be distracted for many moments.

Elite athletes like Cartagena are usually far better at compartmentalizing than we normal humans are, so perhaps an early yellow card would not impact him that much, but it would be better for Orlando City if it does not happen, so there is not the additional concern around if Oscar Pareja needs to sub him off to avoid going down to 10 players. Just as an early yellow card would be brutal, I also believe that a yellow card in the final third of the game would be brutal, because that would mean that the game was still competitive enough that Cartagena had to be on the field and taking risks to make plays, and then there would be the immediate letdown of a yellow card and the knowledge that if Orlando City advances, he would not be available.

An early card changes the game for Cartagena and the coaching staff, and a late card means a close game and a risk of short-term loss of focus late in the match, so therefore I am going to go with a yellow card in the middle of the match being the best scenario, even though none of these are actually good options. I do not want to disrespect any of the other central midfield candidates, but there is not really another good option aside from a midfield pairing of Araújo and Cartagena for as long as Orlando City can have them on the field. If this was Inter Miami, I’m sure Darth…sorry, Don…Garber would find a way for an emergency one-game contract signing of someone like Arsenal’s Declan Rice, but this is Orlando City, so no such luck for the Lions.

Make no mistake, the best outcome for Orlando City is a clean game from Cartagena, and while his playoff booking numbers are not ideal, he played 20 card-free MLS regular-season games this year, so he certainly can do it. My hope is that he does not allow the yellow card accumulation to influence his play at all and just plays with the same vim and vigor that made him the most valuable player for Orlando City in terms of goal differential.

If it helps at all, I am happy to write this message up in big bold letters and display it inside Inter&Co Stadium on Saturday night, though I will definitely not write it on a yellow card.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/7/24

Orlando Pride prepare for the playoffs, Lewis Morgan named MLS Comeback Player of the Year, Champions League roundup, and more.

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10 hours ago

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November 7, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

Welcome to Thursday, Mane Landers. Playoff soccer looms here in the City Beautiful, as Orlando City and the Orlando Pride both host games in which defeat means elimination. I’ll unfortunately be spending the next few days working but am still looking forward to following along when I can. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Orlando Pride Focus On Playoff Game

A historic season for the Orlando Pride will continue Friday when they host the Chicago Red Stars in their first playoff game at home. Preparing for the postseason is unfamiliar territory of sorts for this Pride team, but NWSL veterans like Morgan Gautrat and Carson Pickett can help the team get in the playoff mindset. Emily Sams, who is in just her second year with the Pride but has experience winning an NCAA championship with Florida State, spoke on how the team is focused on its goal of winning the championship that’s driven the team forward this year.

“We’ve come back to that at different points in the season and reminded ourselves that our big goals are to win the shield and to win the championship,” Sams said after training. “We know that it’s very serious and that if we don’t perform well, we could possibly go home. But also knowing that Chicago’s in the same boat, they’re coming to our environment, they’re in front of our fans, where we can control things and just know that we’re the better team and that we can, if we play our best and play up to the standard that we want to, that we’ll be the ones happy at the end of the game.”

Lewis Morgan Named MLS Comeback Player of the Year

New York Red Bulls midfielder Lewis Morgan was voted 2024 MLS Comeback Player of the Year for his performance this season after undergoing hip surgery in September of last year. The 28-year-old led his team with 13 goals and also had seven assists to help the Red Bulls clinch a spot in the playoffs. Morgan was also called up by Scotland for the Euros and UEFA Nations League. Injuries kept him out for most of the 2023 season and there were concerns over whether he would be able to return to form this year. He received 37.69% of the vote to win the award over Robin Lod and Maxi Moralez.

Hector Herrera Not Returning to Houston

The Houston Dynamo declined the option on captain Hector Herrera’s contract for next year. Herrera joined the Dynamo from Atletico Madrid in the middle of the 2022 season and helped the club win the 2023 U.S. Open Cup and make the playoffs the past two years. He had five goals and 21 assists over 62 regular-season matches and was named an MLS All-Star twice. It will be interesting to see what the Dynamo do with the now open Designated Player spot. Only two Western Conference teams scored fewer goals than the Dynamo’s 47 this season, so we’ll see how they add some firepower to the attack heading into next year. Houston is also in discussions with five players regarding returning for next year, including goalkeeper Steve Clark and midfielder Latif Blessing.

Champions League Reaches Midway Point

The fourth round of the UEFA Champions League wrapped up and there were plenty of great games held across Europe. Atletico Madrid went to France and left with all three points after a win against Paris Saint-Germain that included a winner in stoppage time from Angel Correa. A penalty kick right before halftime was the difference in Inter Milan’s 1-0 win at home against Arsenal. Aston Villa was handed its first loss of its campaign in a 1-0 loss to Club Brugge due to Tyrone Mings picking up the ball in his own box. Barcelona, Atalanta, and Bayern Munich all won, while RB Salzburg got its first win of the tournament by beating Feyenoord on the road.

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That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a great Thursday and rest of your week.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/6/24

Orlando City and Orlando Pride set for upcoming playoff games, Rafaelle out for the season, UEFA Champions League results, and more.

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1 day ago

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November 6, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

Welcome to Wednesday, Mane Landers. It’s win or go home time for both Orlando City and the Orlando Pride this weekend. As if this week wasn’t stressful enough, we have that to occupy our collective minds. I know that I often prefer to concentrate on soccer, so let’s let to the links.

Do or Die Time for the Lions

Thanks to a lackluster performance by Orlando City in the second match against Charlotte FC away from home, the Lions need a victory to advance in the playoffs. Fortunately, the next match will be back at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions will need Facundo Torres and Martin Ojeda to return to form if they are to win. Orlando City isn’t the only home squad looking to win this weekend.

The NWSL Playoffs Are Here

With the NWSL playoffs imminent, it is any club’s championship to win. Of course, we want the Orlando Pride to win a second trophy. Each club has a chance to win, though some are better positioned to do so than others. The argument against the Pride stems from the two road matches they recently lost, and the goals given up after winning the NWSL Shield. If the Pride can return to the defensive form from earlier in the season, their odds will be better.

Rafaelle’s Season is Over

Any hope we had of Rafaelle bolstering the Orlando Pride back line came to an end Tuesday, as did her season. The Brazilian has been placed on the Season Ending Injury list with a partial tear of her quadriceps tendon in her right leg. The club is working with Orlando Health on a recovery program for Rafaelle, in hopes she’ll be available for the 2025 season. We wish her a complete and speedy recovery.

Champions League Doesn’t Disappoint

It was quite a day in the UEFA Champions League Tuesday. Liverpool dispatched Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 on the back of a Luis Diaz hat trick, with all four goals coming after the 60th minute. Another high-scoring match saw Sporting CP down Manchester City 4-1 thanks to a hat trick from Victor Gyokeres.

Christian Pulisic helped AC Milan defeat Real Madrid 3-1 with the American providing an assist off a corner. It really was quite a beauty with a finish by Malick Thiaw.

The USMNT’s Malik Tillman scored a goal and added two assists in PSV’s 4-0 victory over Girona. Of course, Girona played a man down after Arnau Martinez received a second yellow card 10 minutes into the second half.

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  • This Atalanta supporter will have a story to tell that few, if any, could ever dream of when talking about his club.
  • If you were wondering what a day in the life of Felipe looks like, wonder no more.
  • If you’re looking for something to do tonight perhaps you’d like to meet Simone Charley and Grace Chanda? The info is in the post below from Tuesday.

That will do it for today. Check back as we get you ready for both matches this weekend. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/5/24

Orlando City announces preseason match, how the Orlando Pride turned things around, Americans in midweek action, and more.

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2 days ago

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November 5, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Tuesday, everyone. We have a massive week ahead of us, as the Orlando Pride take on the Chicago Red Stars in the NWSL playoffs on Friday. That will be followed up by a pivotal Game 3 for Orlando City against Charlotte FC on Saturday. Both matches will be at home, so suffice it to say we have a lot going on around these parts. As usual, we have lots to talk through today, so let’s get into the links.

Orlando City Announces Friendly

Orlando City has announced that the club will play a preseason match against Inter Miami in Tampa on Valentine’s Day, Feb. 14. The game will take place at Raymond James Stadium at 7:30 p.m., with tickets going on sale to the general public on Nov. 14. There will also be a pregame fan festival set up outside the stadium, which is free if you have a ticket. The decision to play Miami in a preseason game isn’t a surprising one, as it involves minimal travel for both clubs, and a chance to capitalize on the box office draw of Lionel Messi. It is a little surprising that the decision was made to host the game at Raymond James Stadium rather than Orlando’s Camping World Stadium, but it’s possible that the latter wasn’t available, or that there was a desire to capitalize on the additional gate money from the extra 15,000 seats at Raymond James.

How the Pride Escaped the Cellar

In a season that featured several teams who played outstanding campaigns, the Orlando Pride still managed to finish first in the National Women’s Soccer League. It’s a feat made even more impressive when considering how the club has historically struggled, but the change didn’t happen overnight. The rebuild really got underway in 2021, which was when a series of high profile exits and trades began to take place, which would eventually allow the Pride to do a lot of maneuvering in the transfer market. It was a long process though, and it took the arrival of Haley Carter in the front office and Seb Hines as the head coach for things to really start coming together. It’s been an all-around effort, but one that paid off with a first-place finish this season.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans playing this week, so make sure you’ve got everything marked down on your calendar. UEFA Champions League action returns tomorrow, as Malik Tillman, Ricardo Pepi, and Richie Ledezma will take on Girona with PSV Eindhoven. Christian Pulisic, Yunus Musah, and AC Milan face Real Madrid, and Tim Weah, Weston McKennie, and Juventus hit the road to take on Weah’s former club, Lille. European action then continues on Thursday as Tanner Tessmann and Lyon face Hoffenheim on the road in the Europa League, and Johnny Cardoso and Real Betis host Celje in the Conference League.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

As always seems to be the case, there are a number of transfer rumors floating around. First up, Spanish outlet Marca says that if Vinicius Jr. becomes available then Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain would be interested in signing him. This comes amid reports that the Brazilian is considering a move to Saudi Arabia. Speaking of Chelsea, Enzo Fernandez could seek an exit from the Blues reportedly due to not being favored by boss Enzo Maresca, with Barcelona and Inter Milan as possible destinations. Finally, Eintracht Frankfurt star Omar Marmoush is reportedly attracting interest from some of Europe’s big clubs, with Bayern Munich and Liverpool both interested in signing him.

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That’s all I have for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

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