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Wilder Cartagena Must Be Himself Despite Yellow Card Accumulation

An evaluation of Wilder Cartagena’s propensity for earning yellow cards and how that may influence the upcoming playoff game against Charlotte.

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2 weeks ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

My wife recently went to a Hoobastank concert at EPCOT, and while standing in line, waiting to be allowed to enter the general admission seating area, she asked one of the Disney employees working the event which band had had the longest line queued up in advance of being allowed to enter. The answer, to her great surprise (and later to mine), was Yellowcard. I have nothing against that band, it just would have taken me approximately 15-20 days worth of guesses to even think of them as generating that much demand.

If you were to ask me which current Orlando City player would be most likely to receive a yellow card, however, that would not even take 15-20 seconds. Since joining Orlando City in 2022, Wilder Cartagena averages 0.35 yellow cards per 90 minutes in MLS regular-season play, or about one yellow card per every three games.

Quick trivia question for our diehard Orlando City fans: Cartagena’s 0.35 yellow cards per 90 minutes ranks fourth all time on the Orlando City leaderboard among players who played at least 1,000 MLS minutes. Who are the three players who received yellow cards more frequently?

I’ll show a table shortly that reveals this answer, but before then I will point out that Cartagena has also played in five MLS playoff games, and he is currently on a…hot?…cold?…terrible and please stop doing this?…streak of earning a yellow card in four consecutive postseason matches. His playoff yellow-cards-per-90-minutes average is a ridiculous 0.85, so for all intents and purposes, one yellow card in every game. That is the kind of performance that gets you…suspended.

More on this after I reveal the answer to the trivia question in the chart below. Thanks to the coders at Opta and fbref.com and their Stathead site for tracking yellow cards received. I enjoyed the trip down memory lane this provided, as during some of those early Orlando City years the team was far better at earning yellow cards than the Lions were at things like scoring goals and winning games. Maybe I actually did not enjoy this as much as I thought.

Without further ado, here are your Orlando City players who most frequently received yellow cards in MLS play:

For all of you who correctly identified Cristian Higuita, Brek Shea and Sebas Méndez without doing any research, I suggest bringing this knowledge of arcane Orlando City trivia and joining us at The Mane Land!

Back to Cartagena and suspensions, MLS rules for the playoffs are that if a player receives three yellow cards during the opening round and conference semifinal games, then they must sit out the next game. So, since Cartagena received two yellow cards during the first two opening-round games against Charlotte, if he receives a yellow card in Game 3, he would be suspended for the conference semifinal, if Orlando City defeats Charlotte.

I have shared similar data before, but while Cartagena may not be the player that most fans or pundits think of when thinking about Orlando City, there is the little matter of the fact that he leads the team in plus-minus (goals scored while a player is on the field minus goals given up while a player is on the field) across all competitions this year:

Not only does he lead the team in plus-minus while he is on the field, he is also one of only two Lions (Cesar Araújo is the other) who has a season-long negative on-off value (negative in this case is good, as on-off is calculated by the goals scored when a player is off the field minus the goals given up while a player is off the field). Cartagena is +22 while on the field and the team was -5 while he was not on the field, so he is a net +27 for the season, an outstanding number.

The website fbref.com tracks on-off for MLS regular season games only, and among non-goalkeepers Cartagena ranked 26th in 2024 and and 24th over the 2023 and 2024 seasons combined, with Orlando City being more than one goal worse per 90 minutes in goal differential when the Peruvian midfielder was not playing. Said another way, having Cartagena play a full 90 minutes during the last two seasons was basically tantamount to Orlando City starting the match with a 1-0 lead.

This was not meant to be a Cartagena fawning session, so let me step down from this soapbox (I do not think the crowd could have been any wilder (see what I did there?) while I was speaking though) and walk down to a place off Ocean Avenue to get back to the topic of yellow cards. I do not regret writing that line.

As mentioned earlier, Cartagena is carrying two yellow cards into the upcoming match with Charlotte, so if (when) he receives one, he would be suspended for the semifinal if Orlando City wins. As he is averaging nearly a yellow card per match in his five-game playoff career, it feels very likely that he will receive one at some point in the game. While it would be devastating for him, and the team, to think about having to play a conference semifinal without him on the field, there is a playoff cliché that applies here first, which is that in the playoffs, teams have to survive and advance and think about games one at a time.

Orlando City cannot play Atlanta or Inter Miami before it plays Charlotte, so the Lions need to play the style that they believe will bring them the best chance of winning. That means Cartagena needs to be a midfield destroyer and not be constantly on edge and trying to avoid a card. During the 2024 season he averaged 2.0 fouls committed per 90 minutes, which is 36th in MLS and 19th among MLS midfielders, and he needs to be the same aggressive player he has been all season. If he is thinking about yellow cards, he is not fully focused on winning, and that will not benefit the Lions.

If Cartagena does receive a yellow card, and as a reminder, he averages 0.85 yellow cards per match in MLS playoff games, so this is quite likely, then I believe it would be most beneficial if it were to happen in the middle third of the match. All cards in the opening third of an elimination match are brutal, as those players are now on the referee’s radar and have to consider the risk of a second yellow on any play they make for the rest of the match. It would be doubly brutal for Cartagena, as he would then also have the extra mental strain of knowing that he is definitely missing the next match if the Lions win, and in an elimination game, one moment of distraction or loss of focus can mean the difference. By the way, Tim Ream, feel free to be distracted for many moments.

Elite athletes like Cartagena are usually far better at compartmentalizing than we normal humans are, so perhaps an early yellow card would not impact him that much, but it would be better for Orlando City if it does not happen, so there is not the additional concern around if Oscar Pareja needs to sub him off to avoid going down to 10 players. Just as an early yellow card would be brutal, I also believe that a yellow card in the final third of the game would be brutal, because that would mean that the game was still competitive enough that Cartagena had to be on the field and taking risks to make plays, and then there would be the immediate letdown of a yellow card and the knowledge that if Orlando City advances, he would not be available.

An early card changes the game for Cartagena and the coaching staff, and a late card means a close game and a risk of short-term loss of focus late in the match, so therefore I am going to go with a yellow card in the middle of the match being the best scenario, even though none of these are actually good options. I do not want to disrespect any of the other central midfield candidates, but there is not really another good option aside from a midfield pairing of Araújo and Cartagena for as long as Orlando City can have them on the field. If this was Inter Miami, I’m sure Darth…sorry, Don…Garber would find a way for an emergency one-game contract signing of someone like Arsenal’s Declan Rice, but this is Orlando City, so no such luck for the Lions.

Make no mistake, the best outcome for Orlando City is a clean game from Cartagena, and while his playoff booking numbers are not ideal, he played 20 card-free MLS regular-season games this year, so he certainly can do it. My hope is that he does not allow the yellow card accumulation to influence his play at all and just plays with the same vim and vigor that made him the most valuable player for Orlando City in terms of goal differential.

If it helps at all, I am happy to write this message up in big bold letters and display it inside Inter&Co Stadium on Saturday night, though I will definitely not write it on a yellow card.

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1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. David

    November 9, 2024 at 8:43 am

    This article is both timely and provocative. It made me think back on the careers of Billy Martin and Ty Cobb in MLB, Metta World Peace and Dennis Rodman in the NBA, Lyla Alzato in the NFL, and Tennis stars John McEnroe and Serena Williams. But in World Class Soccer, like the NHL, a team might have to play a player down if it gets too aggressive, so a team has to be careful that the aggression does not have a negative effect on the team’s success. Let’s hope that this article has a positive impact on Orlando City’s next games.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

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3 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

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  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/20/24

Martin Ojeda could be a key factor against Atlanta, Seb Hines wins Coach of the Year, Lions abroad, and more.

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1 day ago

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November 20, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Good Wednesday morning, Mane Landers. For long time readers, you might remember me as a staple in your Lion Links but having stepped away on sabbatical. Today, I’m honored to be called off the bench and fill in for Dave. My life has been filled with being a first-time father along with taking over as commissioner of a soccer league and my normal day job. Through all of it, I have stayed true to catching as many Orlando City matches as I can or at least the highlights. TML is my go-to source for all things purple, so I’m glad to pitch in and talk about what is happening around the City Beautiful and soccer once again. So, let’s get into the links!

Lions’ Not-So Secret Weapons

Orlando City is ready to take on Atlanta United on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. According to Andrew Wiebe of MLSsoccer.com, midfielder Martín Ojeda and the home field advantage of Inter&Co Stadium will be the key to victory for Oscar Pareja to finally lift the cup with Orlando. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta United goalkeeper Brad Guzan is in impeccable form and will give the Five Stripes an opportunity to advance again despite being the underdogs.

Seb Hines Wins Major Award

The National Women’s Soccer League announced Pride Head Coach Seb Hines has been named the 2024 NWSL Coach of the Year. Following his stint as a player for Orlando City and coaching at the youth level, Hines became the Pride’s interim head coach in June 2022 before getting the gig full time. This season was his best yet with Orlando, finding 18 wins and leading a team that scored a club-record 46 goals along the way. He learned about his award from his players:

Internationals Take The Pitch

Tuesday gave some Lions the chance to represent their home nations. Orlando City right back Dagur Dan Thorhallsson entered the UEFA Nations League match between Wales and Iceland in the 75th-minute, but Iceland fell 4-1 after scoring first. Goalkeeper Pedro Gallese gained another start for Peru in its CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier against Argentina but couldn’t earn a shutout in a 1-0 loss.

Record MLS Signing Reported

FC Cincinnati has splashed the cash and has reportedly completed the signing of 23-year-old Cercle Brugge forward Kévin Denkey. The transfer fee of $16.2 million is an MLS record, passing the previous $16 million that Atlanta United spent to acquired Thiago Almada in 2022. The signing of Denkey to a four-year contract fills a gap at forward for Cincinnati. The length of the deal appears to make him the centerpiece of the team as only one player on the roster has guaranteed contract years beyond 2026, and only striker Kevin Kelsy has option years into 2028 and 2029, but he is currently on loan.

Inter&Co Stadium Will Host Orlando Cup

Coming in January 2025, the Orlando Cup Pro Series will bring clubs Santos FC, Atlético Nacional, and Fortaleza to our home stadium. These will be preseason matches for the participating teams to help them tune up and grow their brands in the United States.

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That’s a wrap on links for the day. I wish you all the best with the rest of you week. Who else is excited for a big Orlando soccer weekend? Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/19/24

Orlando Pride players honored, USMNT beats Jamaica, USWNT roster announced, and more.

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2 days ago

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November 19, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Happy Tuesday, everyone! We’ve had a busy few days with the Orlando Pride advancing to the NWSL Championship in style, and games continuing to come thick and fast during the international break. Things aren’t slowing down around here though, as the Pride will play for a trophy on Saturday, and Orlando City faces Atlanta United in the Eastern Conference semifinals on Sunday. Today also marks 11 years since Orlando City was announced as the 21st MLS club. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Pride Players Named to NWSL Best XI

On top of advancing to the NWSL Championship, a number of Orlando Pride players have been honored with places in the league’s Best XI First Team and Best XI Second Team. Emily Sams, Marta, and Barbra Banda made the cut for the First Team, while Anna Moorhouse and Kerry Abello were chosen for the Second Team.

Sams started in all 13 of the Pride’s shutouts, while Marta had 10 goal contributions on the year and Banda bagged 13 goals and six assists in her first year in the league. A big congratulations to all five players!

USMNT Routs Jamaica

The United States Men’s National Team ran riot over Jamaica in the second leg of its Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal series, winning by a score of 4-2 in St. Louis. The Yanks used a dominant first half to put the game away early, with two Christian Pulisic goals and Ricardo Pepi’s second goal in as many games giving the Americans a 3-0 lead at halftime. In the first 45 minutes, the USMNT enjoyed 70% possession and took six shots to the visitors’ two, with the majority of the action being played in Jamaica’s half. The game opened up more in the second half with Demari Gray grabbing a brace, but the Yanks were never truly threatened and advanced to the Concacaf Nations League semifinals.

USWNT Roster Announced

The United States Women’s National Team has announced its roster for upcoming friendlies against England and the Netherlands. Emma Hayes has named a 24-player roster for the two games, both of which will take place overseas. The roster features a familiar face, as the Orlando Pride’s Sams was named to the squad as a center back. The team also features Lily Yohannes, who recently announced her decision to play for the USWNT, and she will face the other team she was eligible to declare for in the Netherlands. To date, Sams has made two appearances for the USWNT and could be in line to double that number. The Yanks will face England at Wembley on Nov. 30, and then take on the Dutch on Dec. 3 at ADO Den Haag Stadium.

UEFA Nations League Roundup

The international break continued yesterday and there are a number of results to catch up on. In Europe, Croatia and Portugal both advanced to the UEFA Nations League quarterfinals after a 1-1 draw, and Scotland used a late goal by Andy Robertson to beat Poland 2-1, with the result sending the Scots to a playoff that will determine if they’ll be relegated from League A, while Poland dropped into League B. San Marino won just its second game in 20 years by beating Liechtenstein 3-1 to move up into League C. Finally, Denmark advanced to the quarterfinals courtesy of a scoreless draw with Serbia.

Free Kicks

  • Come meet Duncan McGuire tomorrow and enjoy some chicken to boot.

That’s all I have for you today. Vamos Orlando!

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