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Orlando City

Wilder Cartagena Must Be Himself Despite Yellow Card Accumulation

An evaluation of Wilder Cartagena’s propensity for earning yellow cards and how that may influence the upcoming playoff game against Charlotte.

Published

7 months ago

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

My wife recently went to a Hoobastank concert at EPCOT, and while standing in line, waiting to be allowed to enter the general admission seating area, she asked one of the Disney employees working the event which band had had the longest line queued up in advance of being allowed to enter. The answer, to her great surprise (and later to mine), was Yellowcard. I have nothing against that band, it just would have taken me approximately 15-20 days worth of guesses to even think of them as generating that much demand.

If you were to ask me which current Orlando City player would be most likely to receive a yellow card, however, that would not even take 15-20 seconds. Since joining Orlando City in 2022, Wilder Cartagena averages 0.35 yellow cards per 90 minutes in MLS regular-season play, or about one yellow card per every three games.

Quick trivia question for our diehard Orlando City fans: Cartagena’s 0.35 yellow cards per 90 minutes ranks fourth all time on the Orlando City leaderboard among players who played at least 1,000 MLS minutes. Who are the three players who received yellow cards more frequently?

I’ll show a table shortly that reveals this answer, but before then I will point out that Cartagena has also played in five MLS playoff games, and he is currently on a…hot?…cold?…terrible and please stop doing this?…streak of earning a yellow card in four consecutive postseason matches. His playoff yellow-cards-per-90-minutes average is a ridiculous 0.85, so for all intents and purposes, one yellow card in every game. That is the kind of performance that gets you…suspended.

More on this after I reveal the answer to the trivia question in the chart below. Thanks to the coders at Opta and fbref.com and their Stathead site for tracking yellow cards received. I enjoyed the trip down memory lane this provided, as during some of those early Orlando City years the team was far better at earning yellow cards than the Lions were at things like scoring goals and winning games. Maybe I actually did not enjoy this as much as I thought.

Without further ado, here are your Orlando City players who most frequently received yellow cards in MLS play:

For all of you who correctly identified Cristian Higuita, Brek Shea and Sebas Méndez without doing any research, I suggest bringing this knowledge of arcane Orlando City trivia and joining us at The Mane Land!

Back to Cartagena and suspensions, MLS rules for the playoffs are that if a player receives three yellow cards during the opening round and conference semifinal games, then they must sit out the next game. So, since Cartagena received two yellow cards during the first two opening-round games against Charlotte, if he receives a yellow card in Game 3, he would be suspended for the conference semifinal, if Orlando City defeats Charlotte.

I have shared similar data before, but while Cartagena may not be the player that most fans or pundits think of when thinking about Orlando City, there is the little matter of the fact that he leads the team in plus-minus (goals scored while a player is on the field minus goals given up while a player is on the field) across all competitions this year:

Not only does he lead the team in plus-minus while he is on the field, he is also one of only two Lions (Cesar Araújo is the other) who has a season-long negative on-off value (negative in this case is good, as on-off is calculated by the goals scored when a player is off the field minus the goals given up while a player is off the field). Cartagena is +22 while on the field and the team was -5 while he was not on the field, so he is a net +27 for the season, an outstanding number.

The website fbref.com tracks on-off for MLS regular season games only, and among non-goalkeepers Cartagena ranked 26th in 2024 and and 24th over the 2023 and 2024 seasons combined, with Orlando City being more than one goal worse per 90 minutes in goal differential when the Peruvian midfielder was not playing. Said another way, having Cartagena play a full 90 minutes during the last two seasons was basically tantamount to Orlando City starting the match with a 1-0 lead.

This was not meant to be a Cartagena fawning session, so let me step down from this soapbox (I do not think the crowd could have been any wilder (see what I did there?) while I was speaking though) and walk down to a place off Ocean Avenue to get back to the topic of yellow cards. I do not regret writing that line.

As mentioned earlier, Cartagena is carrying two yellow cards into the upcoming match with Charlotte, so if (when) he receives one, he would be suspended for the semifinal if Orlando City wins. As he is averaging nearly a yellow card per match in his five-game playoff career, it feels very likely that he will receive one at some point in the game. While it would be devastating for him, and the team, to think about having to play a conference semifinal without him on the field, there is a playoff cliché that applies here first, which is that in the playoffs, teams have to survive and advance and think about games one at a time.

Orlando City cannot play Atlanta or Inter Miami before it plays Charlotte, so the Lions need to play the style that they believe will bring them the best chance of winning. That means Cartagena needs to be a midfield destroyer and not be constantly on edge and trying to avoid a card. During the 2024 season he averaged 2.0 fouls committed per 90 minutes, which is 36th in MLS and 19th among MLS midfielders, and he needs to be the same aggressive player he has been all season. If he is thinking about yellow cards, he is not fully focused on winning, and that will not benefit the Lions.

If Cartagena does receive a yellow card, and as a reminder, he averages 0.85 yellow cards per match in MLS playoff games, so this is quite likely, then I believe it would be most beneficial if it were to happen in the middle third of the match. All cards in the opening third of an elimination match are brutal, as those players are now on the referee’s radar and have to consider the risk of a second yellow on any play they make for the rest of the match. It would be doubly brutal for Cartagena, as he would then also have the extra mental strain of knowing that he is definitely missing the next match if the Lions win, and in an elimination game, one moment of distraction or loss of focus can mean the difference. By the way, Tim Ream, feel free to be distracted for many moments.

Elite athletes like Cartagena are usually far better at compartmentalizing than we normal humans are, so perhaps an early yellow card would not impact him that much, but it would be better for Orlando City if it does not happen, so there is not the additional concern around if Oscar Pareja needs to sub him off to avoid going down to 10 players. Just as an early yellow card would be brutal, I also believe that a yellow card in the final third of the game would be brutal, because that would mean that the game was still competitive enough that Cartagena had to be on the field and taking risks to make plays, and then there would be the immediate letdown of a yellow card and the knowledge that if Orlando City advances, he would not be available.

An early card changes the game for Cartagena and the coaching staff, and a late card means a close game and a risk of short-term loss of focus late in the match, so therefore I am going to go with a yellow card in the middle of the match being the best scenario, even though none of these are actually good options. I do not want to disrespect any of the other central midfield candidates, but there is not really another good option aside from a midfield pairing of Araújo and Cartagena for as long as Orlando City can have them on the field. If this was Inter Miami, I’m sure Darth…sorry, Don…Garber would find a way for an emergency one-game contract signing of someone like Arsenal’s Declan Rice, but this is Orlando City, so no such luck for the Lions.

Make no mistake, the best outcome for Orlando City is a clean game from Cartagena, and while his playoff booking numbers are not ideal, he played 20 card-free MLS regular-season games this year, so he certainly can do it. My hope is that he does not allow the yellow card accumulation to influence his play at all and just plays with the same vim and vigor that made him the most valuable player for Orlando City in terms of goal differential.

If it helps at all, I am happy to write this message up in big bold letters and display it inside Inter&Co Stadium on Saturday night, though I will definitely not write it on a yellow card.

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Opinion

Predicting Orlando City’s June Results

It’s time to take a glimpse into the future and predict how Orlando City will fare during the month of June.

Published

11 hours ago

on

May 30, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

We’re almost to the end of what’s been an extremely packed month of May for Orlando City. After the conclusion of Saturday’s match against the Chicago Fire, the Lions will have played nine matches in the span of 28 days. OCSC has basically played a match every three days, which is an absurd pace. Other than two recent blemishes, Orlando has mostly handled it exceedingly well though, and June presents a much lighter schedule for our brave heroes.

The Lions play just three games next month and will have two weeks off between Saturday’s match against the Fire and their next game. Without any further ado, I will now attempt to peer into the crystal ball and predict the results of Orlando’s three games in June.

Saturday, June 14 — at Colorado Rapids

Orlando will return to action after a two-week layoff by hopping on the purple plane and flying west to take on Colorado. The Rapids are currently eighth in a crowded Western conference table with 22 points, and they are 10 points off the Vancouver Whitecaps at the top of the table. They’ve put together a pretty even season so far with a record of 6-6-4 (W-L-D). The biggest problem for Colorado has been scoring goals, as the Rapids only have 18 goals in 16 games and have been held scoreless five times in the league. They have this week off, and won’t return to action until June 7, when they host Austin FC. I give Orlando City the edge in this match, and hopefully that extra rest will help the good guys hang tough at altitude. The Lions have been defensively sound recently — when they’ve had all 11 men on the field — while also still being able to put the ball in the back of the net several times a game. Shutting down Djordje Mihailovic is going to be key, but I like Orlando’s chances given its recent form and the fact that the Lions will be well rested.

Prediction: Orlando City 3-1 Colorado Rapids.

Wednesday, June 25 — at St. Louis City

I refuse to capitalize every letter in “City” in St. Louis City’s name, because frankly I think it’s a ridiculous stylistic choice. The team also hasn’t been very good this year, so it doesn’t deserve me catering to it in that manner. St. Louis is currently 2-8-5 and only truly woeful campaigns by CF Montreal and the LA Galaxy are saving it from leading the Wooden Spoon race with 11 points. It makes Colorado look like an offensive juggernaut, as it’s only scored 11 goals in 15 games. St. Louis isn’t bad defensively, as it’s only conceded 20 goals, but it’s always going to be a struggle when you average scoring just 0.73 goals a game. Its form was enough to get Head Coach Olof Mellberg fired, and he lasted just over six months on the job. The club hasn’t won since a March 15 match against the Galaxy and has a tricky upcoming slate, with a home match against the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday, an away game against the Portland Timbers on June 8, and a home match against the Galaxy on June 14. With a week and a half between the Colorado match and this one, I once again like Orlando City in this game. Unless St. Louis can find its shooting boots, I don’t see it offering much threat against a rested Orlando defense that has come on strong since a shaky start to the year.

Prediction: Orlando City 2-0 St. Louis City.

Saturday, June 28 — vs. FC Cincinnati

OCSC wraps up June by returning home to play one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference on short rest. It isn’t ideal, but it isn’t the worst thing in the world either. Cincy has been good this year, compiling a record of 9-4-3 and 30 points to sit second in the East. New signings Evander and Kevin Denkey have been as good as you would expect, as Evander has seven goals and five assists in 14 appearances, and Denkey has nine goals in 15 games. As a team, Cincinnati has scored 24 goals and conceded 22, so it’s been a balanced campaign to this point. It’ll be coming to the end of a stretch of three straight road games, as Cincy will be away to the New England Revolution on June 14 and then at CF Montreal on June 25, so it’ll also be traveling on short rest. That said, aside from the Philadelphia Union, Cincy is the toughest team the Lions will have faced in MLS play, and stopping both Evander and Denkey is far from an easy task. This reeks of a draw that has a couple of goals for each team, so that’s what I’ll be going with.

Prediction: Orlando City 2-2 FC Cincinnati.

There you have it. I’ve scrutinized the tea leaves and you now know what the path ahead holds for the Lions. Be sure to check back in at the end of June so you can marvel at how stunningly accurate my forecast was. Until then, feel free to either disagree or tell me how crystal clear my visions are down in the comments. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/30/25

Orlando City players called up, Orlando Pride sign Simone Jackson, USWNT gets ready to play China, and more.

Published

15 hours ago

on

May 30, 2025

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! It’s been a bit of a brutal week, but we’ve made it through. Our reward is an exciting weekend of soccer to enjoy to close out the month. I’ll be spending most of the weekend working, but it should still be a nice next few days. Let’s dive right into today’s links from around the soccer world.

Lions Called Up For International Duty

Orlando City goalkeeper Pedro Gallese was predictably called up for Peru’s CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers. Peru is ninth in the standings and will take on Colombia June 6 before hosting Ecuador on June 10.

Defender David Brekalo was called up by Slovenian for a pair of friendlies against Luxembourg and Bosnia and Herzegovina. These matches will help prepare Slovenia for World Cup qualifying this fall against Sweden, Switzerland, and Kosovo.

A few Young Lions are also heading to Europe for the UEFA Friendship Cup in Switzerland. The U.S. will represent Concacaf at the U-18 tournament, and OCB players Justin Ellis, Colin Guske, and Jackson Platts were called up for it.

Orlando Pride Sign Simone Jackson

The Orlando Pride signed forward Simone Jackson to a contract through the 2028 season. Jackson played at the University of Southern California for four years, recording 22 goals and 13 assists in 75 games, and trained with the Pride during the preseason. Internationally, she’s represented the U.S. at various youth levels and scored a goal in the 2022 FIFA U-20 Women’s World Cup. The 22-year-old gives Orlando some helpful depth up front and can develop her game learning from some of the best attackers in the sport as well.

USWNT Prepares For Friendly Against China

The United States Women’s National Team will take on China Saturday at Allianz Field in St. Paul, MN in the first of two friendlies during this international window. Orlando Pride defenders Emily Sams and Kerry Abello were both called up to join a young roster as the team builds a foundation before the 2027 Women’s World Cup. Goalkeeper will continue to be a position to watch, as opportunity knocks for Phallon Tullis-Joyce, Mandy McGlynn, and Claudia Dickey to stake a claim as the team’s starter. Following this match, the USWNT will take on Jamaica in St. Louis on Tuesday before a pair of friendlies against Ireland later in June.

Denver’s NWSL Team Hires First General Manager

Denver’s NWSL team hired Curt Johnson to serve as the club’s first general manager. He will have the opportunity to build the team’s roster and staff from the ground up before the team takes the field as an expansion side in 2026. Johnson left the North Carolina Courage in December and was the chief soccer officer when the club dominated the league in 2018 and 2019. It looks like a solid hire in my opinion and I’m interested to see what kind of team he puts together in Denver.

Free Kicks

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Chicago Fire: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to secure a victory against Chicago at home?

Published

1 day ago

on

May 29, 2025

By

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City ends May the way it began, with a match against the Chicago Fire. The Lions are coming off a wild and disappointing match against rival Atlanta United. I always worry about a team after such an emotional outing, and on short rest to boot, especially since the Fire were off during the midweek. How the team reacts will determine the result. What does Orlando City need to do to take all three points from Chicago at home?

Defend this House

Much like the last time, Orlando City will need to deal with Hugo Cuypers and the rest of Chicago’s attack. The Lions likely won’t get the benefit of having Chris Brady sent off in the 36th minute again, meaning they will need to defend more attacks for a longer time. In the last match, Chicago took 16 shots, putting eight of those on target. Limiting those chances will be critical.

I expect to see Alex Freeman, Rodrigo Schlegel, Robin Jansson, and David Brekalo starting on the back line despite having done so Wednesday night. No cheap giveaways, no errant arms away from the body in the box, just solid defending for 90 plus minutes. The Lions will have to do it without Cesar Araujo, thanks to his sending off against Atlanta. I think they can, but it will be more difficult without him.

Atuesta Ahoy

Eduard Atuesta played the full 90 minutes against the Portland Timbers, and then played limited minutes against Atlanta United. I completely agreed with that strategy, because he did not need to be playing too many minutes so soon after returning. He is also working back to full fitness. He will be rested for this home match, and the pitch conditions will be much better.

We were reminded of how good he is in the attacking midfield in that match against Portland. I need him to provide those slicing passes through tiny windows against the Chicago defense. Joran Gerbet has proven to be a steal in the draft, but he doesn’t yet have that extra bit of quality you see from Atuesta. Look for him to break Chicago’s lines.

Early and Often

Orlando City will come in on three days rest, whereas Chicago will be on six days rest. This match will also be the Lions’ ninth match in May — their seventh in the league and two more in the U.S. Open Cup. To say that tired legs will be a concern is an understatement. As such, Orlando City needs to jump out to an early lead as it did against Atlanta.

Fortunately, there was more rotation in the attack on Wednesday for Orlando City with Ramiro Enrique getting the start. That means Luis Muriel will be fresh for a start on the much nicer grass at Inter&Co Stadium. I’ll take a goal from Muriel, or frankly any Orlando player. Heck, Jansson is due for one, right? Multiple goals will likely be needed to secure a victory.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday night. Let me know your in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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