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Gambler’s Guide to Major League Soccer Week 4

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After a disastrous spell in Week 2, we were able to rebound a bit last week with the help of Sporting Kansas City and the LA Galaxy delivering on their ability and generating some incoming revenue. This week will be a bit different, as MLS features a minimal slate of games in the wake of World Cup qualifying.

It's time to build off that momentum and make sure we head into April with money in our pockets.

Now, for the usual intro.

* * *

For the uninitiated, odds are generally presented in three forms — a "spread," a "moneyline," and a "total."

The spread is the goal difference expected. For example, if the spread for Orlando City is +1.5, you’ll want them to win, draw, or lose by one goal to win the wager. Losing by two or more goals would result in losing the wager.

The moneyline is my personal favorite, and the only odds we'll use for soccer. I'm not a fan of spreads with this sport, as the margin for error is very small. A moneyline is simple — odds are presented, and you select the outcome you expect — Team A win, Team B win, or Draw.

The total is the total number of goals scored this game. This can be tough to predict in soccer, and is generally something I recommend staying away from — though it can be a useful moneymaker for both hockey and basketball.

Odds are presented with a number preceded by either a + or a -. When the number is presented after a +, this means that selection is an underdog. The number following the + is the amount of money the odds pay out for every $100 risked. When the number is presented as a -, this means that selection is a favorite. The number following the – is the amount of money you will need to risk for odds to pay out $100.

To improve your odds, you can always play what's called a "parlay." A favorite of mine, with this option you can select winners across multiple games, and watch your payouts soar. The risk, however, is if you miss any one contest on your parlay, you've lost the entire bet.

(Note: These odds were pulled from BetDSI, and may not reflect lines posted by your sportsbook of choice.)

* * *

Easy Money

Here we take a look at the CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers for a quick fix to our money woes. The United States Men's National Team (-165) takes the pitch against Guatemala (+545) and are our biggest favorites of the week. A total of 13 (14 if you count the newest Colorado Rapid, Secretary of Defense Tim Howard) MLS players will be representing the States against our Central American neighbors.

This should be the safest bet of the week. Guatemala, the 95th ranked country in the world, should be no match for Jurgen and the boys. The Pick: USMNT.

We can’t forget to scout the competition when Mexico (-145) squares up against Canada (+475). I know what you’re thinking. “Wade, as Mane Lander Jeff Milby has pointed out every single week in his MLS Power Rankings, Cyle Larin is on pace for 34 goals. He’s in great form, this game reeks of upset!”

No, it doesn't. In matters of money, never include your heart. The highest ranked country in CONCACAF shouldn't miss a beat against our neighbors from the north. The Pick: Mexico.

Feeling Lucky?

This week, we’ll all benefit from the glory that is MLS scheduling. With the World Cup qualifying window open, teams that have matches are facing the sort of watered down rosters we all love to hate. When D.C. United (+157) hosts FC Dallas (+176), we’ll see this in spades.

United will be without Steve Birnbaum (USMNT) and Alvaro Saborio (Costa Rica), who will both miss the match to represent their countries.

As for Dallas? Well…

Let's just say they'll be shorthanded.

Fabian Espindola should feast off the remnants of the FC Dallas defense. The Pick: DC United

My Play

With the slower weekend, I will be playing every game mentioned above, but I also want to talk about New York City FC (+125) hosting the New England Revolution (+211). The call up bug has bit NYCFC pretty hard in the form of Mix Diskerud missing the match, and as our sister blog Hudson River Blue learned on Thursday afternoon’s conference call, Patrick Vieira is less than pleased.

"I think it's quite a little bit disappoint[ing], really, that we have to play the game knowing it is an international week," – NYCFC manager Patrick Vieira

The speculation is that this will bring the season debut of surging star Kwadwo Poku, which should be the spark the second best MLS expansion side this half of the decade needs to earn three points. The Pick: NYCFC

2016 Record

Easy Money — 3-4

Feeling Lucky — 1-5

My Play — 4-8

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More

Orlando City restarts its 2026 MLS campaign late tonight out west at San Jose.

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Image of Braian Ojeda taking a shot in a friendly against FC Dallas.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Justin Glatt

Welcome to your match thread for a late night midweek matchup tonight between Orlando City (4-9-2, 14 points) and the San Jose Earthquakes (10-3-2, 32 points) at PayPal Park (10:30 p.m., Apple TV). This is the only scheduled meeting between the teams in 2026 and the first time the teams have met since 2024.

Here’s what you need to know ahead of tonight’s match.

History

Orlando City is 3-1-3 in the previous seven MLS meetings with the Quakes since the club joined Major League Soccer in 2015. The Lions got their only away win in the series in the last meeting and enter tonight 1-1-2 on the road against San Jose.

The teams last met on May 18, 2024, with Jack Lynn coming off the bench to score the game’s only goal. Lynn’s strike in the 89th minute broke the scoreless deadlock and lifted the Lions to a 1-0 victory.

The teams met in Orlando most recently way back on June 22, 2021, with the Lions beating the Quakes down, 5-0. Orlando got things started with an early penalty kick goal by Nani, followed by braces from Benji Michel and Daryl Dike to easily put the game away. The lasting memory from the game is Michel’s celebratory dance wearing a cowboy hat that came out of the stands.

Prior to that Orlando City romp, the last time the teams met was on Aug. 31, 2019 when the Lions got freight trained 3-0 at Avaya Stadium, giving the Quakes their first win in the series. San Jose’s offense came via a Chris Wondolowski brace and an early opening goal by Magnus Eriksson. Orlando looked flat and weary out of the gate.

The Lions were victorious in Exploria Stadium in the 2018 meeting on April 21, a 3-2 Orlando win. It was the first win in the series for either side after three straight draws. Chris Mueller, Sacha Kljestan, and Dom Dwyer gave the Lions a 3-0 lead before Florian Jungwirth pulled two back in the game’s late stages.

The Lions led all of the first three matches in the second half only to see San Jose pull level, with two of those tying goals coming late. In the 2017 meeting, Carlos Rivas finally broke the scoreless tie and gave Orlando City the lead in the 81st minute, but Wondolowski spoiled the Lions’ night with an equalizer two minutes later as the teams drew at Avaya Stadium, 1-1.

In 2016, the Lions were gut-punched in the 94th minute in an emotional match that ended in a 2-2 draw. It was the first home match following the Pulse nightclub tragedy and what appeared to be a storybook ending to a cathartic win turned sour on a last-gasp equalizer by Shea Salinas. Seb Hines — now the Orlando Pride’s head coach — opened the scoring for Orlando, only to see Chad Barrett tie it up. Julio Baptista restored the lead in stoppage time, but Salinas ruined everything.

The two teams also drew in the first meeting, a 1-1 affair at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with the Lions down to 10 men after Brek Shea was sent off in the first half. Kaká and Wondolowski each scored from the penalty spot four minutes apart in that initial meeting.

Overview

The teams meet tonight to get their post-World Cup portion of the season started. Orlando City has been terrible on the road all season long, keeping only one MLS opponent under two goals all year away from home and allowing five goals twice (at New York City FC and Nashville) and six goals twice (at LAFC and in the team’s most recent match away at FC Cincinnati just before the break).

Orlando City is a putrid 1-6-1 on the road this season, and now the Lions must face the Western Conference co-leaders tonight before coming home to face Supporters’ Shield-leading Nashville SC at home on Saturday. They’ll have to play at least tonight’s game without Martin Ojeda, who is out with a thigh injury sustained some time between his first-half goal a week ago in a friendly against FC Dallas and the time the availability report dropped on Tuesday.

But it isn’t all bad news for the Lions, who should have both Antoine Griezmann and Dike in the lineup. Griezmann was the club’s highly prized and widely publicized summer Designated Player signing, while Dike’s return to Orlando came together more recently, following his departure from West Bromwich Albion. They’ll help the club’s offense, but the attack hasn’t been the issue in 2026 — it’s been the historically porous defense, which is on pace to shatter the MLS record for goals conceded.

Meanwhile, San Jose is one of the first half of the season’s biggest surprises, as the Quakes have been outstanding in 2026. Scoring 34 goals while conceding just 15, San Jose is among the league leaders in goals scored (tied for third), goals conceded (third), and goal differential (+19, third).

The Earthquakes are 4-2-1 at home and are coming off a 3-1 road win at Portland in their last game prior to the World Cup break. San Jose boasts Golden Boot challenger Preston Judd, who leads the Quakes with 11 goals, adding two assists in his 15 appearances. Ousseni Bouda has chipped in five goals and three assists. Niko Tsakiris leads the team with seven assists to go along with his two goals, but he’s still recovering from a lower body injury and is not available tonight. However, the arrival of Timo Werner (four goals and five assists in just seven games) has truly elevated Bruce Arena’s Quakes, and he’ll need to be one of the main focal points for the Orlando defense.

To have any shot at taking something from this game, the Lions will need to play better road defense than they have all season. Orlando can score goals, but with Ojeda out, Griezmann will need to adapt quickly, and someone other than the team’s leading scorer will need to find the net.

The Lions will play without Ojeda (thigh), Joran Gerbet (knee), Nolan Miller (knee), Colin Guske (international duty), and Clovis Archage (international duty). In addition, Marco Pasalic may or may not have returned to the team after the World Cup. He was not in training Monday, although interim head coach Martin Perelman said he expected the Croatian back soon. The Earthquakes will be without Nonso Adimabua (lower body), former Lion Earl Edwards Jr. (lower body), DeJuan Jones (lower body), and Tsakiris (you guessed it, lower body…come on, San Jose).

Match Content


Official Lineups:

Orlando City (4-4-2)

Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.

Defenders: Adrian Marin, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Griffin Dorsey.

Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Braian Ojeda, Eduard Atuesta, Tiago.

Forwards: Justin Ellis, Antoine Griezmann.

Bench: Javier Otero, Bernardo Rhein, Tahir Reid-Brown, Zakaria Taifi, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Luis Otavio, Harvey Sarajian, Tyrese Spicer

San Jose Earthquakes (4-2-3-1)

Goalkeeper: Angus Gunn.

Defenders: Jamar Ricketts, Reid Roberts, Daniel Munie, Benjamin Kikanovic.

Defensive Midfielders: Beau Lerouox, Ronaldo Vieira.

Attacking Midfielders: Timo Werner, Nick Fernandez, Ousseni Bouda.

Forwards: Preston Judd.

Bench: Jonathan Gonzalez, Dave Romney, Paul Marie, Jack Skahan, Jack Jasinski, Ian Harkes, Francesco Montali, Max Floriani, Darius Johnson.

Referees

REF: Elijio Arreguin.
AR1: Adam Wienckowski.
AR2: Mike Nickerson.
4TH: Timothy Ford.
VAR: Jose Carlos Rivero.
AVAR: TJ Zablocki.


How to Watch

Match Time: 10:30 p.m.

Venue: PayPal Park — San Jose, CA.

TV/Live Stream: Apple TV.

Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).

Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.


Enjoy the match. Go City!

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Podcasts

PawedCast Episode 542: Tampa Bay Friendly, McGuire Traded, OCB Beats Cincinnati, and More

Lions maul the Rowdies in friendly action, OCB wins on the road, and it’s transfer season.

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Image of Antoine Griezmann and Ivan Angulo celebrating a goal in a friendly against the Tampa Bay Rowdies.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City welcomed I-4 Derby rival Tampa Bay to Inter&Co Stadium for a friendly match on Wednesday and then proceeded to bludgeon the Rowdies with a couple of hammers named Antoine Griezmann and Justin Ellis. The two attackers combined for a goal and four assists in a 6-0 beatdown of the team from the Gulf Coast, with five different Lions scoring and Griffin Dorsey forcing an own goal. We discuss Griezmann’s first minutes with Orlando City, what the team showed in its formation, and how good Justin Ellis’ vision is.

Oh, and it’s also transfer season now. Duncan McGuire is on his way out and Marco Pasalic reportedly will follow soon, while a new left back may be headed from Spain to Orlando.

Following all of that, we discuss Maxime Crepeau being added to the MLS All-Star Team and the announcement that he’ll participate in the 2026 MLS All-Star Skills Challenge.

Our mailbagbox asked us about which World Cup semifinalist players we’d want to join Orlando this season (if we could only pick one), and more. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.

After the mailbagbox, we dive into OCB’s 2-1 road win at FC Cincinnati 2. It wasn’t the prettiest game by the Young Lions, but they managed to do enough to earn three points on the road, where they’ll stay to face Chattanooga on Saturday. We briefly preview that game.

Finally, Orlando City will be in Dallas Wednesday for the second of two friendlies leading up to the restart of the MLS season. It’s unlikely we’ll get a lot of details about that one, but we’ll see what happens. Maybe the FC Dallas folks will help us out.

Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.


Here’s how No. 542 went down:

0:15 – Orlando City crushed the Rowdies, the transfer season is in full swing, plus: hey now, Crepeau’s an all-star.

28:50 – The mailbagbox is always good for a hypothetical scenario.

36:54 – The Young Lions slipped past Cincy and head to Chattanooga, while the senior Lions head to Dallas.

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Podcasts

SkoPurp Soccer Episode 119: International Break, USWNT, Louisville Preview, and More

The Pride return from a long international break looking to get their first-ever road win against Racing Louisville.

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Image of Haley McCutcheon scoring the opening goal in Orlando's home playoff win over Seattle.
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

It feels like months since the Orlando Pride last took the field, but the calendar says otherwise. If you believe calendars, it’s only been a little less than three weeks, but time moves strangely in the post-pandemic apocalyptic world.

Anyway, we don’t have a match to recap, so we touched on a couple of Pride players putting the ball in the net during the international break and chat a bit about the United States Women’s National Team’s three-game friendly series against Japan. Emma Hayes used a lot of players, and the team looked solid for two of the three matches, but the rotated middle game seemed a bit disjointed. Hayes has greatly expanded the player pool and will have plenty of options when the World Cup approaches.

Our mailbagbox had questions about a potential change in the NWSL schedule, as the league explores adopting the fall-to-spring slate, and opposition own goals. Remember, you can ask us anything by hitting us up on Twitter at either @TheManeLand or @SkoPurpSoccer and using the hashtag #AskSkoPurp. You can use that same hashtag and hit @TheManeLand.bsky.social up on Bluesky. Or you can visit our show page, scroll down, and fill out the handy form. We’d also appreciate any ratings or reviews you can leave wherever you get your podcasts, and if you do that on Apple Podcasts, we’ll find them easily and read them on the show.

After the mailbagbox, we turned our attention toward Friday’s late afternoon tussle with Racing Louisville in Kentucky. The Pride have never won on the road against Louisville, and it’s about high time they did. This match begins a congested push to the June World Cup break, and although Friday’s hosts aren’t high in the table, the Pride must be at their best to get a road result in this fixture. We look back at the series history, compare the two sides, provide our key matchups in the game, and make our final score predictions.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.


Here’s how Episode 119 went down:

0:15 – We open the show with a little banter about the Pride in the international break and the USWNT’s series vs. Japan.

9:03 – The mailbagbox features questions via both eletronic mail and social media. We welcome all modes of delivery.

19:59 – The Pride travel to Louisville to face Racing. They’ve never won in Kentucky, but we inform them how to do so.

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