Orlando City
Orlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Final Score 2-2 as Euphoria Turns to Heartbreak in Stoppage
Julio Baptista appeared to have won the game with a brilliant strike but Shea Salinas spoiled the party.
What was seconds away from being a storybook ending and a welcome celebration for a community badly in need of one turned into just another game and just another draw. The Lions remain unbeaten at home but that will be little consolation after a 2-2 draw against a San Jose Earthquakes team that hadn’t scored a goal in its last three competitive matches.
And the fact that both of those goals came in 85th minute or later, and both followed Orlando City goals won’t make anyone feel any better about it. It’s two more dropped points in a season filled with them. And this one hurts more than most because the city of Orlando was a few mere ticks away from happiness, even if only for the moment.
“Obviously bitterly disappointed with the way that it’s finished,” Head Coach Adrian Heath said after the match. “I don’t think I ever wanted to win a game of football more in my life than tonight for the obvious reasons. The players are absolutely distraught in there and I feel for them. They worked really, really hard.”
A huge, emotional Camping World Stadium crowd of 37,194 saw a 94th-minute goal from Shea Salinas ruin what was nearly a much-needed win — instead producing Orlando’s MLS-leading eighth draw. Orlando City and San Jose have now met twice and neither game produced a winner.
Orlando City players collapsed in frustration and exhaustion as referee Robert Sibiga blew the whistle for full time just seconds after Salinas had equalized in the fourth of what was to be at least three minutes of stoppage time. It came minutes after Julio Baptista scored what could have been the goal of the season and one of the biggest in Orlando City history — for non-soccer reasons.
The night began with a huge ovation for the first responders and an emotional National Anthem, sung by a crowd that somehow managed to stripe the stadium in rainbow colors with just a few days’ notice. The Pulse shooting victims’ names were displayed on the giant video screen and advertising boards. And then there was a soccer game.
All four goals were scored in the second half as Orlando City (3-3-8, 17 points) and San Jose (5-4-6, 21 points) traded salvos at the death of a hard-fought game that neither side wanted to lose.
After the midweek U.S. Open Cup match at Jacksonville, Heath opened with a back four of Luke Boden, Seb Hines, Tommy Redding and Kevin Alston, meaning three of the four defenders were playing their second game in four days. Cristian Higuita returned from his yellow card suspension to line up with Servando Carrasco in the defensive midfield, with an attacking midfield of (left to right) Brek Shea, Kevin Molino, and Adrian Winter beneath lone striker Cyle Larin in the 4-2-3-1.
San Jose countered with the traditional 4-4-2.
The Lions fashioned the game’s first good scoring chance when Molino earned an early free kick. Carrasco fizzed the set piece delivery just over the bar from about 20 yards out.
Two minutes later, Molino coughed up the ball and conceded a kick from the right wing, which was sent in by San Jose’s Matias Perez Garcia, but it was nodded well wide by Quincy Amarikwa. San Jose came close again three minutes after that when Amarikwa’s cross slipped momentarily out of Joe Bendik’s hands, but the keeper recovered before the Quakes could pounce.
In the 13th, Molino had a free header at the back post off a Boden corner but seemed to misplay the ball and it sailed harmlessly wide. Carrasco’s try from above the box in the 15th minute sailed as well.
Simon Dawkins found pockets of space throughout the opening half and had San Jose’s best chance of the first period when Perez Garcia found him in the middle of the box. Dawkins sent a one-time shot just inches wide of the right post in the 21st minute.
Molino had an eventful first half, getting a shot blocked in the 27th minute after Shea’s long ball fell for Larin, but the Canadian had a defender draped on his back and laid off for the Trinidadian.
Hines should have done better with a free header off a Boden corner in the 31st, but his shot was over despite a lack of pressure from any Earthquakes player. Five minutes later, Shea sent Winter in on goalkeeper David Bingham, but the Swiss winger’s shot sailed well high of the target.
Molino then earned the visitors yellow cards on counter attacks against San Jose’s Shaun Francis and Fatai Alashe in a two-minute span in the 37th and 39th minutes, but Orlando couldn’t take advantage of the free kicks from distance.
San Jose fashioned the last good chance of the opening 45 minutes off a Perez Garcia free kick that found its way to Alberto Quintero above the box. The Panamanian sent his volley over Bendik’s goal and the teams went to the locker room with a 0-0 stalemate.
The action picked up after the scoreless first half. Shortly after the restart, Victor Bernardez and Hines picked up separate bookings. The latter set up a moment of silence in the 49th minute (actually in the 50th) for the victims of the Pulse nightclub tragedy. Hines will miss next weekend’s match against Toronto FC due to yellow card accumulation.
Nothing came of the free kick, and moments later, Larin was in alone on goal down the right side of the box, but his shot hit a sliding Bingham in the 52nd minute. One minute later, Molino was nearly in on goal alone off a great entry ball from Winter but the Trinidadian’s first touch was a tad heavy and the Earthquakes’ keeper collected.
In the 56th minute, Orlando fashioned two chances. Off a corner scramble, Carrasco’s volley was stopped by a diving Bingham. Seconds later, Alston tried his luck from distance but didn’t get enough power on his drive and Bingham comfortably collected.
The Earthquakes then put Dawkins in on goal but Bendik made a big save in the 61st minute. Before the throw-in, San Jose brought on Salinas for Quintero and Heath countered with Baptista, withdrawing Boden and moving Shea to left back.
Moments later, Larin earned a corner with his hustle to force Bernardez into an error at the end line. Hines sent a header toward goal on the scramble that Bingham tipped over for a second corner. Hines did better with his second bite of the apple, driving a powerful header just under the bar off Winter’s inch-perfect corner cross, giving the Lions a 1-0 lead in the 66th minute.
Immediately after the goal, the Earthquakes got on the front foot. Bendik was forced into a diving save on a shot that changed directions in the 68th. Salinas was left wide open at the back post on a corner and knocked his header just over in the 72nd.
Larin nearly got in alone on Bingham in the 74th but appeared to be held, although the referee had a good look and no foul was given, and the goalkeeper reached the ball first as a result. Orlando again created a chance to put the game away with a Molino breakaway in the 83rd but a perfect saving tackle from behind by Marvell Wynne barely poked the ball off of his foot to deny the opportunity.
San Jose Head Coach Dominic Kinnear praised the play as a big moment in the game.
“One thing we know about Marvell is that he’s really fast,” said Kinnear. “For Marvell to make up the ground and put pressure on him to put him into not getting a goal, that’s huge. Because at two-nothing the climb is a little bigger than it was for one-nothing. Sometimes Marvell’s last-ditch defending is excellent and it was really important for us at that particular time.”
There’s no understating the play by Wynne, because two minutes later, second-half sub Chad Barrett tied the score with a header. Salinas ran inside of Barrett, confusing the defense and leaving Redding with two attacking players to defend on a cross. The cross fell perfectly onto Barrett’s head for the goal.
Just when the game appeared headed to a 1-1 draw, Heath brought on Carlos Rivas and the Colombian helped deliver a magic moment. Rivas sent in a perfect cross for Baptista and Molino that the Brazilian chested. He let the ball take a bounce to gather himself and then volleyed spectacularly with power through Bingham to send the crowd into a frenzy in the 91st minute.
It should have been the game winner. It almost was.
But the euphoria wasn’t to last. Salinas then broke hearts in the fourth minute of injury time when Carrasco’s clearing attempt bounced right to the San Jose attacker for the tying goal.
“We got done in by a little bit of lack of concentration on a couple of occasions,” Heath said. “But I thought we’d done enough to win the game. It’s been a difficult evening for everything. The mood in the stadium and even the music that was playing. Everything was a little bit different. Probably for me it was the most emotional evening I’ve had in football.”
Now Orlando City will need to regroup for Toronto next week. The Lions haven’t done well against the Reds so far in MLS and it’s unknown if either Kaká (thigh) or Darwin Ceren (ankle) will be back. Rafael Ramos did return to the bench tonight and may have come on had there been a stoppage before the Barrett goal. But once that happened, Heath opted to put Rivas on to try for the win. It almost worked.
Opinion
The Case for Starting Luis Muriel Against Atlanta
Muriel’s game is tailor made to help Orlando get the result in what will likely be a tight contest.
For the second season in a row, Orlando City finds itself hosting a match in the Eastern Conference semifinals. It was a scenario that was far less likely this year, with the Lions watching as all three seeds above them crashed out in the first round, leaving OCSC as the highest-seeded team still standing in the East. Last year’s semifinal match didn’t go so well, with 10-man Orlando falling to the eventual champion Columbus Crew in extra time. So, how do the Lions avoid that fate this year and advance to the Eastern Conference final for the first time?
For starters, they can succeed on each of Dave Rohe’s three keys to victory! I’d like to make an addition though, and campaign for Oscar Pareja to start Luis Muriel instead of Ivan Angulo. To be clear, it’s not that I have an axe to grind against Angulo, as he’s largely ranged from solid to good when starting out on the left wing. For my money though, this match is tailor made for Muriel and giving him the start could help Orlando get through to the next round without needing to resort to extra time or penalties.
It’s not unreasonable to expect Sunday’s game to play out in a similar manner to Orlando’s 2-1 Decision Day loss to Atlanta, in which the visitors had 34% of the ball to OCSC’s 66%. True, part of that disparity was down to Atlanta’s 2-0 lead after 16 minutes, which allowed the visitors to sit back, bunker, and protect what they had. Even if the game had remained scoreless for longer though, Atlanta probably would likely have ceded possession anyway and looked to play defensively and hit on the counter. They rolled out a compact 4-2-3-1 in that game, but deployed a 3-5-2 in their last two games against Miami, and they might do so again after its effectiveness.
With Orlando likely to have the lion’s share (hehe) of the ball, and Atlanta sitting deep, there figures to be less room for Angulo to deploy his electric pace. OCSC will probably need to make things happen in the “half-court,” with an emphasis on moving the ball quickly, making clever runs, and finding those runs with creative and accurate passes.
Enter Luis Muriel. The Colombian Designated Player had a slow start to life with Orlando City but has come on strong in recent months, excelling in a super sub role and frequently making an impact in games off the bench. In 56 minutes against Charlotte in Game 3, he completed two dribbles, played one key pass and one through ball, and took three shots, with one on target, one off target, and one blocked. He doesn’t offer Angulo’s speed, but he has maybe the best vision and range of passing of anyone on the team, he’s an outstanding dribbler, and he’s a calm and capable finisher.
He hasn’t been asked to do a ton of traditional striker work during his resurgence, but Muriel has excelled at setting up teammates and creating chances, as evidenced by the litany of key passes littering his stat sheet. Those attributes could be hugely important in breaking Atlanta down, and with two key passes and two completed dribbles against them in just 22 minutes on Decision Day, he’s already proven he can be effective against the Five Stripes.
Another thing that could help the Lions in starting Muriel, is that it would almost certainly take Atlanta by surprise. Oscar Pareja isn’t exactly known for tweaking his lineup on a game-to-game basis, vastly preferring to find an XI that works and stick with it religiously. As long as everyone’s healthy, that lineup has featured Angulo starting with Muriel coming off the bench, and flipping the script would certainly be an unexpected variation that Atlanta might not be expecting. At this level, teams are good enough to adjust on short notice, but you also take every possible edge that you can find, and a lineup shift could be exactly that.
In short, as much as I like Angulo, I think Muriel should get the call in his place on Sunday. The veteran’s combination of vision, passing ability, and dribbling makes him uniquely suited to help unlock defenses, which will be crucial in a game where Orlando City is likely to dominate possession. I don’t think it’s likely to happen given Papi’s consistency with his lineups, but the unexpected move could give the Lions the edge they’re looking for. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/22/24
Emily Sams wins Defender of the Year, Orlando City’s turnaround, Barbra Banda nominated for African Woman Player of the Year, and more.
Happy Friday! Beyond working and catching some soccer here and there, I don’t have many plans for the weekend. I’m also hoping to find some time to trial some cranberry and brie bites I’m trying to perfect before Thanksgiving next week. For now though, let’s jump right into today’s links from around the soccer world!
Emily Sams Awarded NWSL Defender of the Year
The Orlando Pride’s Emily Sams was named 2024 NWSL Defender of the Year after a fantastic season. The Pride only conceded 20 goals in a record-breaking season, and Sams played in all 13 of the team’s shutouts. Sams was one of the most impactful players for the Pride this year and had 163 recoveries, 76 clearances, and 16 blocks. She’s the first Pride player to win the award and it’s great to see her receive some deserved recognition in her second year in Orlando.
Analyzing Orlando City’s Revitalization
It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for the Lions to say the least. There were serious concerns over whether or not the Lions would even make the playoffs back in June and now they find themselves as the highest remaining seed in the Eastern Conference this postseason. Facundo Torres’ excellent run of play is a major reason behind the club’s turnaround, but the buy-in from all of Orlando’s attackers has helped create a dynamic and unselfish offense. Although expectations are rising once more for the Lions, Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi spoke on how the team is focused on Sunday’s playoff match.
“There’s only one team that matters: Atlanta United,” Muzzi said. “The easiest way to lose a game is to look ahead. I’ll say we didn’t expect to be playing at home, but it’s welcomed. We’re focused on Atlanta, they’re playing great. They have a lot of confidence and momentum. It doesn’t matter they’re the No. 9 seed because they’re not playing like the No. 9 seed.”
Barbra Banda Up For African Woman Player of the Year
Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda was one of 10 players nominated for this year’s African Woman Player of the Year award. The 24-year-old has done well for both club and country this year. She scored 13 goals in her first regular season with the Pride and has three goals so far in the playoffs. Banda also had a hat trick for Zambia in the Summer Olympics. She’s joined by fellow NWSL players Temwa Chawinga and Racheal Kundananji on the list of nominees. Bay FC striker Asisat Oshoala, who has won the award in five of the past six years, was not nominated for the first time in a decade. The nomination list will be trimmed to a three-player shortlist before the winner is announced on Dec. 16 in Morocco.
Croix Bethune Named NWSL Midfielder of the Year
Washington Spirit rookie Croix Bethune won NWSL Midfielder of the Year after recording 10 assists and five goals in 17 matches this season. A knee injury cut her season short in September, but she still tied Tobin Heath’s record for the most assists in a season. Bethune gave plenty of NWSL teams headaches this year and also won Rookie of the Year earlier this week. She’s the first player to ever receive NWSL Midfielder of the Year and she beat out the Pride’s Marta, the North Carolina Courage’s Ashley Sanchez, and Kansas City Current duo Lo’eau LaBonta and Vanessa DiBernardo.
Eastern Conference Clubs Making Moves
FC Cincinnati officially signed striker Kevin Denkey from Cercle Brugge on a deal that will last through 2028. The 23-year-old joins as a Designated Player on a reported $16.2 million transfer, which would be a league record. He won the Golden Boot in Belgium last year after scoring 27 goals and should give Cincinnati some considerable firepower next year.
Elsewhere in the league, CF Montreal declined the option on Josef Martinez’s contract, meaning the Venezuelan forward will be a free agent once again. The 31-year-old led Montreal with 11 goals this season and we’ll see where he winds up next. Charlotte FC did not trigger the purchase option on Pep Biel’s loan, opening up a Designated Player spot. Former Lion Junior Urso’s contract option was also declined by Charlotte. The Philadelphia Union signed defender Olivier Mbaizo to a contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2026, with options for 2027 and 2028 as well.
Free Kicks
- In preparation for the 2026 World Cup, FIFA named 26 new options across the country as “base camps” for participating teams to train and rest. Orlando was included, with OCSC’s training grounds at Osceola Heritage Park pitched alongside the Lake Nona Wave Hotel.
- ESPN‘s Jeff Kassouf dove into how the NWSL stacks up to the biggest sports leagues in the U.S. Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Pride and Spirit should showcase just how entertaining the league is to plenty of viewers.
- Pep Guardiola will stick around as Manchester City’s manager for a couple more years after signing a two-year contract extension with the club. His contract was set to expire at the end of this season.
- Here’s a cool breakdown of the seven amateur teams that have qualified for the 2025 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup so far. None are from Florida, but there are some great logos to check out if you’re looking for a team to root for in the early rounds next year. Debutants Southern Indiana FC and the Virginia Dream are my personal favorites of the bunch.
- The draw for the 2025 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations will take place today. Zambia is in the second pot, meaning it will be put in a group of four that will include one of Nigeria, South Africa, or Morocco. The tournament itself will be in July of next year.
- Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City all clinched a spot in the Women’s Champions League quarterfinals with two games still left to play.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend. Go Orlando!
Orlando City
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.
The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.
Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.
Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:
I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.
Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):
Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.
Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.
That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:
It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.
If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.
While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.
I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.
Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!
Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.
Vamos Orlando!
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