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Gambler’s Guide to Major League Soccer: Week 6
I don't know about you, but the early goings this year have been less than kind to my wallet. Placing $10 on each game from the My Play subsection leaves me down $90 through five (six? I dunno. Stupid MLS) weeks.
With every team having played at least five games, we're starting to get a good sample size on what these clubs are about. We'll use an added emphasis on recent form, and performance at home or on the road where applicable, to best find the winners we need to get those dollars up.
As a bonus — if you're looking for a gimme to throw in a parlay, look no further than Khabib Nurmagomedov, fighting a late replacement opponent at UFC on Fox 19 in Tampa Saturday night. The undefeated former Combat Sambo world champion and Judo black belt returns from a two year injury layoff as a massive favorite, so be sure to use him in a parlay to get redeemable value on the play.
Now, for the usual intro.
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For the uninitiated, odds are generally presented in three forms — a "spread," a "moneyline," and a "total."
The spread is the goal difference expected. For example, if the spread for Orlando City is +1.5, you’ll want them to win, draw, or lose by one goal to win the wager. Losing by two or more goals would result in losing the wager.
The moneyline is my personal favorite. A moneyline is simple — odds are presented, and you select the outcome you expect — Team A win, Team B win, or Draw. The total is the total number of goals scored this game.
Odds are presented with a number preceded by either a + or a -. When the number is presented after a +, this means that selection is an underdog. The number following the + is the amount of money the odds pay out for every $100 risked. When the number is presented as a -, this means that selection is a favorite. The number following the – is the amount of money you will need to risk for odds to pay out $100.
To improve your odds, you can always play what's called a "parlay." A favorite of mine, with this option you can select winners across multiple games, and watch your payouts soar. The risk, however, is if you miss any one contest on your parlay, you've lost the entire bet.
(Note: These odds were pulled from BetDSI, and may not reflect lines posted by your sportsbook of choice.)
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Easy Money
Real Salt Lake (-102) hosts Vancouver Whitecaps FC (+290) on Saturday night, where RSL will look to extend its home winning streak to three following one goal wins over Seattle and Colorado. The Whitecaps have been awful on the road this year, surrendering seven goals in three games. Inversely, Real’s defense has been stifling on home turf, allowing just one to date.
While it's true Real will likely be missing Javier Morales again, it shouldn't stop it from getting three points at home in this one. The Pick: Real Salt Lake.
Feeling Lucky?
The struggling Seattle Sounders (-146) host the Philadelphia Union (+462), who are massive underdogs despite their 2-1 win over Orlando City last week. Seattle can’t seem to figure out their striker situation, attempting to replace the departed Obafemi Martins with a revolving door of disappointment.
C.J. Sapong has been anything but disappointing for Philly. Scoring three goals this season and averaging a hair over three shots per game, the man has been terrorizing goalkeepers since the first whistle was blown.
Speaking of goalkeepers, the Union's Andre Blake has been a walking personification of presidential candidate Donald Trump's dream wall. Except, you know, minus the bigotry.
If you're not comfortable taking the Union outright, you can take them with a spread of +0.5 (+125) and retain favorable odds for a draw or win. The Pick: Philadelphia Union.
My Play
On top of RSL and the Union, I’ll be playing the Colorado Rapids (+110) over New York Red Bulls (+280). The Rapids remain unblemished at home, while the Red Bulls are 0-3 on the road and have yet to find the back of a foreign net. Coincidentally, the Rapids have refused visitor entry into their goal in both their home contests.
I’ll also be taking our Orlando City Lions (+109) over the New England Revolution (+250) at home, where Inchy’s boys have proven to be very comfortable this season. The Revs haven’t lost since falling 3-0 to the Union in Week 2, but have allowed seven goals in three road contests and have managed to win just one of their six games.
The Lions will be looking to bounce back following a 2-1 loss of their own to the Union last week, and the Citrus Bowl is the place to do it. Look for this to be a high-scoring affair, as Orlando City looks to add to its seven home goals on the season.
2016 Record
Easy Money — 5-8
Feeling Lucky — 2-9
My Play — 7-13
Podcasts
SkoPurp Soccer Episode 144: Gotham Rewind, Seattle Preview, and More
The Pride finished their home schedule with a loss to Gotham and hope to finish their road schedule with a win in Seattle.
The Orlando Pride tried to send their fans home happy in their regular-season home finale, but despite an impressive overall performance against the league leaders, the Pride wasted numerous chances in front of goal and paid for two big mistakes at the back in what ultimately ended as a 2-1 loss in a season filled with far too many defeats. Solai Washington did so many things well, but despite a month’s worth of chances, she could only muster one goal. Still, it was a promising outing albeit in a developing story that won’t continue much longer this year.
We discuss the key plays, players, and moments, look back at our score predictions from last week, and select our Player of the Match.
This week’s mailbagbox asked us about Marta, the reasons for the Pride’s struggles in 2026, and more. Remember, you can ask us anything by hitting us up on Twitter at either @TheManeLand or @SkoPurpSoccer and using the hashtag #AskSkoPurp. You can use that same hashtag and hit @TheManeLand.bsky.social up on Bluesky. Or you can visit our show page, scroll down, and fill out the handy form. We’d also appreciate any ratings or reviews you can leave wherever you get your podcasts, and if you do that on Apple Podcasts, we’ll find them easily and read them on the show.
Finally, we look ahead to Sunday’s season finale at the Seattle Reign. The Pride opened their 2026 season with a home loss to the Reign but would like to close it with a road win over Seattle to enter the off-season on a positive note. It won’t be easy, as the Reign are clinging to the last playoff spot and trying to catch rival Portland as multiple teams are trying to catch them. We look at Orlando’s attempt to play spoiler, check back on the series history, compare the teams’ positions in the table, provide our key matchups, and more.
Here’s how Episode 144 went down:
0:15 – The Pride finished their home schedule with a good performance but another poor result against the league’s top team.
20:07 – Our mailbagbox has questions about the GOAT.
38:26 – Seattle was the first 2026 opponent and will be the last 2026 opponent. We preview for the last time this season.
Podcasts
SkoPurp Soccer Episode 140: Bay FC Rewind, San Diego Preview, and More
The Pride keep their playoff hopes alive by eliminating Bay FC but things get tougher with San Diego visiting Friday.
The Orlando Pride remained perfect on the road against Bay FC with a 3-1 win on Sunday. Deuces were wild, as Haley McCutcheon, who wears jersey No. 2, scored in the second minute of both halves, and her two goals in California gave the midfielder her second brace of both the 2026 NWSL season and her career. Barbra Banda figured heavily in pulling defenders out of position on two of the three Orlando goals and assisted on Jacquie Ovalle’s right-footed thunderbolt in stoppage time to put the game away. But make no mistake, it’s not as if the Pride played well, turning the ball over often and conceding 28 shot attempts to the hosts.
We break down a road win that may have been more exhausting to watch than to play in (although I wouldn’t bet on it), check back on our score predictions, and make our selections for Player of the Match.
This week’s mailbagbox asked us about Haley McCutcheon, where to most strongly place the blame for the Pride’s disappointing season, and more. Remember, you can ask us anything by hitting us up on Twitter at either @TheManeLand or @SkoPurpSoccer and using the hashtag #AskSkoPurp. You can use that same hashtag and hit @TheManeLand.bsky.social up on Bluesky. Or you can visit our show page, scroll down, and fill out the handy form. We’d also appreciate any ratings or reviews you can leave wherever you get your podcasts, and if you do that on Apple Podcasts, we’ll find them easily and read them on the show.
Finally, we looked ahead to Friday, when Orlando will host San Diego Wave FC, looking to both complete a season sweep and to keep its faint playoff hopes alive. We look at the series history, provide our key matchups for the contest, and make our predictions for the final score.
Here’s how Episode 140 went down:
0:15 – The Pride improved to 2-1-1 under Yolanda Thomas, but a lot of good Cosette Morche saves were required to get that second win.
20:00- The mailbagbox asks us to play the blame game.
33:36 – The Pride continue to face California-based competition, but Friday’s opponent is much higher in the table than Sunday’s was.
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
Orlando City restarts its 2026 MLS campaign late tonight out west at San Jose.
Welcome to your match thread for a late night midweek matchup tonight between Orlando City (4-9-2, 14 points) and the San Jose Earthquakes (10-3-2, 32 points) at PayPal Park (10:30 p.m., Apple TV). This is the only scheduled meeting between the teams in 2026 and the first time the teams have met since 2024.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of tonight’s match.
History
Orlando City is 3-1-3 in the previous seven MLS meetings with the Quakes since the club joined Major League Soccer in 2015. The Lions got their only away win in the series in the last meeting and enter tonight 1-1-2 on the road against San Jose.
The teams last met on May 18, 2024, with Jack Lynn coming off the bench to score the game’s only goal. Lynn’s strike in the 89th minute broke the scoreless deadlock and lifted the Lions to a 1-0 victory.
The teams met in Orlando most recently way back on June 22, 2021, with the Lions beating the Quakes down, 5-0. Orlando got things started with an early penalty kick goal by Nani, followed by braces from Benji Michel and Daryl Dike to easily put the game away. The lasting memory from the game is Michel’s celebratory dance wearing a cowboy hat that came out of the stands.
Prior to that Orlando City romp, the last time the teams met was on Aug. 31, 2019 when the Lions got freight trained 3-0 at Avaya Stadium, giving the Quakes their first win in the series. San Jose’s offense came via a Chris Wondolowski brace and an early opening goal by Magnus Eriksson. Orlando looked flat and weary out of the gate.
The Lions were victorious in Exploria Stadium in the 2018 meeting on April 21, a 3-2 Orlando win. It was the first win in the series for either side after three straight draws. Chris Mueller, Sacha Kljestan, and Dom Dwyer gave the Lions a 3-0 lead before Florian Jungwirth pulled two back in the game’s late stages.
The Lions led all of the first three matches in the second half only to see San Jose pull level, with two of those tying goals coming late. In the 2017 meeting, Carlos Rivas finally broke the scoreless tie and gave Orlando City the lead in the 81st minute, but Wondolowski spoiled the Lions’ night with an equalizer two minutes later as the teams drew at Avaya Stadium, 1-1.
In 2016, the Lions were gut-punched in the 94th minute in an emotional match that ended in a 2-2 draw. It was the first home match following the Pulse nightclub tragedy and what appeared to be a storybook ending to a cathartic win turned sour on a last-gasp equalizer by Shea Salinas. Seb Hines — now the Orlando Pride’s head coach — opened the scoring for Orlando, only to see Chad Barrett tie it up. Julio Baptista restored the lead in stoppage time, but Salinas ruined everything.
The two teams also drew in the first meeting, a 1-1 affair at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with the Lions down to 10 men after Brek Shea was sent off in the first half. Kaká and Wondolowski each scored from the penalty spot four minutes apart in that initial meeting.
Overview
The teams meet tonight to get their post-World Cup portion of the season started. Orlando City has been terrible on the road all season long, keeping only one MLS opponent under two goals all year away from home and allowing five goals twice (at New York City FC and Nashville) and six goals twice (at LAFC and in the team’s most recent match away at FC Cincinnati just before the break).
Orlando City is a putrid 1-6-1 on the road this season, and now the Lions must face the Western Conference co-leaders tonight before coming home to face Supporters’ Shield-leading Nashville SC at home on Saturday. They’ll have to play at least tonight’s game without Martin Ojeda, who is out with a thigh injury sustained some time between his first-half goal a week ago in a friendly against FC Dallas and the time the availability report dropped on Tuesday.
But it isn’t all bad news for the Lions, who should have both Antoine Griezmann and Dike in the lineup. Griezmann was the club’s highly prized and widely publicized summer Designated Player signing, while Dike’s return to Orlando came together more recently, following his departure from West Bromwich Albion. They’ll help the club’s offense, but the attack hasn’t been the issue in 2026 — it’s been the historically porous defense, which is on pace to shatter the MLS record for goals conceded.
Meanwhile, San Jose is one of the first half of the season’s biggest surprises, as the Quakes have been outstanding in 2026. Scoring 34 goals while conceding just 15, San Jose is among the league leaders in goals scored (tied for third), goals conceded (third), and goal differential (+19, third).
The Earthquakes are 4-2-1 at home and are coming off a 3-1 road win at Portland in their last game prior to the World Cup break. San Jose boasts Golden Boot challenger Preston Judd, who leads the Quakes with 11 goals, adding two assists in his 15 appearances. Ousseni Bouda has chipped in five goals and three assists. Niko Tsakiris leads the team with seven assists to go along with his two goals, but he’s still recovering from a lower body injury and is not available tonight. However, the arrival of Timo Werner (four goals and five assists in just seven games) has truly elevated Bruce Arena’s Quakes, and he’ll need to be one of the main focal points for the Orlando defense.
To have any shot at taking something from this game, the Lions will need to play better road defense than they have all season. Orlando can score goals, but with Ojeda out, Griezmann will need to adapt quickly, and someone other than the team’s leading scorer will need to find the net.
The Lions will play without Ojeda (thigh), Joran Gerbet (knee), Nolan Miller (knee), Colin Guske (international duty), and Clovis Archage (international duty). In addition, Marco Pasalic may or may not have returned to the team after the World Cup. He was not in training Monday, although interim head coach Martin Perelman said he expected the Croatian back soon. The Earthquakes will be without Nonso Adimabua (lower body), former Lion Earl Edwards Jr. (lower body), DeJuan Jones (lower body), and Tsakiris (you guessed it, lower body…come on, San Jose).
Match Content
- Our most recent PawedCast includes our key matchups and score predictions for tonight’s match.
Official Lineups:
Orlando City (4-4-2)
Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.
Defenders: Adrian Marin, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Griffin Dorsey.
Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Braian Ojeda, Eduard Atuesta, Tiago.
Forwards: Justin Ellis, Antoine Griezmann.
Bench: Javier Otero, Bernardo Rhein, Tahir Reid-Brown, Zakaria Taifi, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Luis Otavio, Harvey Sarajian, Tyrese Spicer
San Jose Earthquakes (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Angus Gunn.
Defenders: Jamar Ricketts, Reid Roberts, Daniel Munie, Benjamin Kikanovic.
Defensive Midfielders: Beau Lerouox, Ronaldo Vieira.
Attacking Midfielders: Timo Werner, Nick Fernandez, Ousseni Bouda.
Forwards: Preston Judd.
Bench: Jonathan Gonzalez, Dave Romney, Paul Marie, Jack Skahan, Jack Jasinski, Ian Harkes, Francesco Montali, Max Floriani, Darius Johnson.
Referees
REF: Elijio Arreguin.
AR1: Adam Wienckowski.
AR2: Mike Nickerson.
4TH: Timothy Ford.
VAR: Jose Carlos Rivero.
AVAR: TJ Zablocki.
How to Watch
Match Time: 10:30 p.m.
Venue: PayPal Park — San Jose, CA.
TV/Live Stream: Apple TV.
Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).
Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.
Enjoy the match. Go City!
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