The dictionary definition of a mirage involves physics and how light bends as it travels through different air temperatures. I think exactly zero of you opened this article to read about science, so we can quickly move from the physics definition to the more generally used definition of mirage, which is that people think they see something, but what they see is not real.

Orlando City has played 20 real games of MLS soccer this season and currently sits fifth in the Eastern Conference and has the ninth best points earned per game rating in the entire league, but do those rankings reflect (see what I did there?) reality, and are the Lions one of the league’s best teams? Let’s take a look.

Orlando City is three games into the second half of the season — 59% of the way through the full season to be more precise — and at this point, there are still some scheduling quirks, but for the most part teams have played enough games that we can look at the results and not worry about a small sample size. The table below shows how the Lions performed at home and on the road as well as how they fared in games against teams in the top third, middle third, and bottom third of the overall league rankings for points earned per game. You read each cell in the table as two different values, the first being the number of games played and the number after the slash is the average points earned per game.

• Top Third = Cin (H), Mia (A), Phi (A&H) Port (H)
• Middle Third = Char (H), Chi (A&H), Col (A), NE (H), NYC (A), NYRB (A&H)
• Bottom Third = Atl (A&H), D.C. (H), LA Gal (A), Mon (A), STL (A), Tor (H)

The schedule makers were fair to Orlando City, giving the team an even 10 home games and 10 away matches among their first 20 outings, and at the macro level the Lions were consistent, earning nearly the same points per game at home as they did on the road. Looking at the different segments, however, it is clear that Orlando beats up on the teams in the bottom third and then has mixed results against the teams ranked in the top and middle thirds.

This brings the mirage question back up, as teams in the bottom third will not qualify for the playoffs, and in games against the top two-thirds (the top 20 teams) in the league, Orlando City is 4-5-4, meaning the Lions earn points in most matches, but they are just as likely to win as they are to lose.

Looking at a performance table for the league’s top 10 teams, however, lends credence to the idea that that those might be real lions you see on the field when watching Orlando City. This table shows the average points earned per match by the top teams, and Orlando City is not alone among the top teams in how they earn their points.

I did not list out the performances of all 30 teams, but Orlando City’s 1.40 points earned per game against teams in the top third of MLS is tied for the sixth best in the entire league. The Lions struggle against the middle of the pack, ranking 18th, and then are elite again when it comes to playing the bottom teams (seventh).

Only two teams in the league are in the top 10 against teams in all three categories: Vancouver (sixth, fourth, third) and Columbus (ninth, second, fourth). Portland is the only team in MLS that has earned zero points against teams in the top third, but because the Timbers have only played three opponents in that category and because they have done well against the teams in the bottom 20, they are 10th overall in the league.

That’s enough talk about other teams for now, but it is important to note that the number of games against teams in each category weighs heavily on the overall ranking. Orlando City has had a varied schedule, but there are teams that have played as few as three games against top 10 teams and others who have played as many as nine. Teams have no control over their schedule, and since MLS has an unbalanced schedule every year, some teams get lucky or unlucky with their cross-conference games.

Orlando City has 14 games remaining, and while it has had a pretty varied schedule so far in terms of opponents, the club’s final 14 games are backloaded with teams currently in the top 10. This is not ideal, but it is how it is, and Óscar Pareja’s teams have been excellent closers in recent years, so if the Lions can do that again, they have a great chance to make some leaps up the table as half of their final 14 games are against teams above them in the overall standings.

• Top Third = Cin (A), Col (A&H), Mia (H), Nash (A&H), Van (H)
• Middle Third = Cha (A), NE (A), NYC (H)
• Bottom Third = D.C. (A), KC (H), Mon (H), Tor(A)

If Orlando City does not close well, however, the Lions could find themselves dropping rapidly down the table due to 10 of their final 14 games being against teams in the top 20. The draws against a weak CF Montréal team, a Chicago Fire team that played down a player for nearly 55 minutes, and a New England team that was beaten before Robin Jansson gave away a needless penalty kick in the final minutes will loom large no matter how the season ends up, but considering Orlando City was the better team or a man up in all three of those games and none of those teams is a top 10 team, those will be six huge dropped points in the final standings.

Playing the woulda/coulda/shoulda/didn’t game accomplishes nothing, but those extra six points would have the Lions tied with Cincinnati (which they also could have beaten or at least tied!) as the third-best team in the league in points earned per game, and that would just be from beating teams much lower in the overall standings.

Ugh.

So, where did we end up? Orlando City is a top 10 team in points per game and in points per game against top 10 teams, and our eye test (important in an evaluation of whether something is or is not a mirage) says that it probably should have earned more points than it did. The glass-half-empty side of “the Lions should have earned more points than they did,” however, is that multiple times they were unable to earn points that were there for the taking, and that is generally not a sign of a championship-caliber team.

With a backloaded schedule that is one of the more difficult ones in the league (only Nashville has more games left against teams in the top 10, and two of those are against Orlando City), the Lions will need to be ruthless and not play with their food when they have chances to eat during the final months. I am far more optimistic than pessimistic, both in general and also when looking at the 2025 Orlando City team, and I think the team will finish strong and be a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

The 2024 team finished the season at 1.52 points earned per game, 8% lower than this year’s team’s current average of 1.65, and that team went all the way to the conference final. I believe this team is better than last year’s team, not just from those points earned per game, but also because of the talent of the players on the field, and that as Pareja’s teams often do, they will find their ideal lineup and get on a roll to end the season.

At least that is what I think I see out in front of us.

Vamos Orlando!

Orlando City travels to North Carolina to take on Charlotte FC in an important Eastern Conference match. The Lions need to get back on the winning side following their home loss to FC Cincinnati. Orlando City has been good on the road lately, so perhaps that is a positive. Despite Charlotte missing some players on international duty, it will still be a tough match. What does Orlando City need to do to bring home all three points from Charlotte?

Left Side Puzzle

Orlando City’s attack has been lacking on the left side. Ivan Angulo has not been great so far this season. He has taken 23 shots, putting eight on target, and has not scored. Additionally, Angulo only has three assists. David Brekalo has been the first choice at left back for most of the season, but he’s not the most adept at getting into the attack. He has no completed crosses and only two assists.

The reason Brekalo has been starting is because Rafael Santos has been poor defensively. Of course, he’s a better crosser than Brekalo, meaning if Oscar Pareja did start Santos, it might help the attack on the left. I don’t know that there is an ideal lineup. Brekalo is better on defense, Santos is better on offense, and Angulo is fast. All three won’t be on the left side, so does Pareja prioritize the attack or the defense? I say the attack, given Orlando’s scarcity of goals in recent matches — the St. Louis match notwithstanding.

Defense Central

Charlotte has a very good attacking midfield with Wilfried Zaha, Pep Biel, and Liel Abada. The three have combined for 16 goals and 15 assists. Even if Charlotte is missing Patrick Agyemang due to his being with the USMNT, there is still plenty of firepower for Cesar Araujo and the back line to deal with on Saturday.

I expect we’ll see a back line consisting of Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, and Dagur Dan Thorhallsson. I’m also expecting Angulo and Eduard Atuesta in the midfield. It will be essential for all six to contain Charlotte’s attack. A return to form from Pedro Gallese might be in order as well.

Finally Finishing

In the St. Louis match, Orlando City scored four goals on 23 shots with 12 on target. Last match, the Lions took 17 shots with only three on target, totaling one goal. Orlando City will need to do better against Charlotte if the club is to keep pace or climb the standings in the Eastern Conference.

Ramiro Enrique and Marco Pasalic won’t have to deal with Tim Ream, who is also away with the USMNT, but they will need to get the ball past Charlotte keeper Kristijan Kahlina, who is a good keeper. And you can bet the defense will be looking at Enrique and Pasalic. That is why I want Martin Ojeda and Luis Muriel to get back to scoring some goals in this match.

That is what I will be looking for Saturday night. Let me know your in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

How’s it going, Mane Landers? It’s been a weird week for me so far, as it’s felt simultaneously like it’s flying by and taking forever for the weekend to get here. All of the soccer has been nice at least, and I’ve been able to get some reading and painting done when not swamped. But enough about me, let’s dive into today’s links!

Orlando Pride Loan Multiple Players Out

The Orlando Pride loaned out five players for the rest of the 2025 season, with four of them joining USL Super League teams. Forward Amanda Allen, who was loaned to Lexington SC last year and injured her shoulder in December, is headed to her home country of Canada to join Halifax Tides FC in the Northern Super League. As for the players headed to the USL Super League, right back Brianna Martinez will join Carolina Ascent FC, goalkeeper Kat Asman and forward Mariana Larroquette were loaned to Lexington, and Aryssa Mahrt was sent to Spokane Zephyr FC. These loans should provide solid opportunities for minutes for these players, so hopefully they can make some noise with their respective teams.

Orlando City Academy Players Make All-Star Team

The rosters for the 2025 MLS NEXT All-Star Game are out and Orlando City B midfielders Gustavo Caraballo and Dylan Judelson were both selected for the event. The East All-Stars will be coached by Orlando City SC Academy Director Javier Carrillo, who also coached Orlando’s U-18 team to victory in the Generation Adidas Cup this year. Caraballo was named MVP of that tournament’s U-18 age group and scored 16 goals over the course of the MLS NEXT season. Judelson appeared in 32 games for Orlando this season and could factor into Canada’s U-17 World Cup plans come November. The MLS NEXT All-Star Game will take place on July 21 and can be viewed on the MLS YouTube channel.

USMNT Takes Down Guatemala in Gold Cup

The United States Men’s National Team secured a spot in the Concacaf Gold Cup final after winning 2-1 against Guatemala in St. Louis. The Yanks got off to a hot start thanks to Diego Luna’s brace in the first 15 minutes of the match. The offense wasn’t able to extend the lead beyond that though, and a late goal by Olger Escobar made the match a bit more tense the U.S. would have liked. Regardless, the U.S. got the job done in the end and will play in Sunday’s final in Houston.

USWNT Breezes Past Canada in Friendly

The United States Women’s National Team beat Canada in convincing fashion, shutting out its northern rival 3-0 in a friendly. Sam Coffey and Claire Hutton scored in the first half to give the USWNT a nice lead, and Yazmeen Ryan came off the bench to put the nail in the coffin with a late goal. The defense did well to claim its third clean sheet of this series of summer friendlies. Emily Sams didn’t make an appearance for the U.S., and Zara Chavoshi didn’t come off the bench for Canada either.

NWSL Announces Layout For 2026 Schedule

The 2026 NWSL regular season will kick off on March 13 and finish on Nov. 1 according to the league’s announced framework for next year’s action. Although there will be 16 teams next year, the playoff format remains the same and the top eight teams in the standings will qualify, with the 2026 NWSL Championship set for Nov. 21. There will once again be a balanced schedule, with each team playing 30 matches over the course of 27 weeks. The league will also notably be on break for a majority of June due to the FIFA World Cup, citing expectations to accommodate stadium demands in markets where World Cup games will take place

Free Kicks

• Boston Legacy FC signed American midfielder Annie Karich as its first player ahead of its inaugural season next year. Karich spent the past two seasons with SC Freiburg in Germany and joins Boston as a free agent.
• San Diego FC forward Anders Dreyer was named MLS Player of the Month after recording three goals and six assists in June. He leads the league with 23 goal contributions this season and is a major reason behind San Diego’s rise to the top of the Western Conference standings.
• Atlanta United bolstered its defense by signing Albanian center back Enea Mihaj to a contract through 2028. The 26-year-old joins as a free agent after spending the past three seasons with FC Famalicao in Portugal top flight.
• The 2025 Women’s European Championship kicked off in Switzerland, with Finland beating Iceland 1-0 in the first match of the tournament. Switzerland struck first against Norway, but Ada Hegerberg scored an equalizer and an own goal by Swiss defender Julia Stierli gave Norway the 2-1 win.
• It seems the Concacaf co-hosts for next year’s World Cup will be able to serve suspensions in friendlies rather than missing out on the World Cup.

That’s all I have for you all this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!