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Orlando City’s Goal Difference Can Help Predict Postseason Trajectory
Since MLS expanded to six playoff teams per conference in 2015, the top six Eastern Conference teams in terms of goal differential in each of the past two years have made the postseason, although not in exact order. This supports the fact that goal differential is a good indicator of success — there’s a direct relationship between goal dominance and point accumulation.
Orlando City currently sits level on goal differential for the 2017 season, having scored 11 and shipped 11 through its first nine contests. Although this even differential is the fifth-best in the East at the moment, the Lions find themselves just a point off the top of the conference table with a game in hand on Toronto, so things are still good standings-wise despite back-to-back losses.
Much of the season is obviously left to play, but given the fact that goal differential is such an accurate predictor of playoff qualifiers over the course of a full MLS regular season, it’s not too early to take a look at this factor. Orlando’s zero in the GD column would likely get it into the playoffs if it remained constant through the end of the regular season, as an even goal differential would’ve been good enough for the playoffs in both of City’s first two MLS seasons in 2015 and 2016 (three teams qualified for the postseason in that span despite a negative differential — Columbus in ’15, and Montreal and Philadelphia in ’16).
If that goal difference held through the end of the season, though, the Lions would likely see themselves fall much closer to the playoff cut line before it’s all said and done; a goal differential of zero would’ve been the fifth-best in the East in 2015 and tied for fourth-best in 2016. There’s generally been a steep drop-off from playoff teams’ goal differential to those of non-playoff teams, with the exception of Orlando City last season, which missed the GD cut by only one goal (thanks to shipping a league-high 60 goals) — and the Lions also missed the playoffs by only one point.
The good news for City in this regard is that we can safely assume the 4-0 loss at Houston is an outlier. Prior to that drubbing, the Lions had surrendered only seven goals through eight games — an average of 0.88 goals per match that ballooned to 1.22 after one bad night in H-town — with a +4 differential. With Jonathan Spector returning, we can probably count on Orlando returning to a less 2016-like form on the defensive end.
The bad news for the Lions is that their attack has not proven to be especially potent. The Lions’ 11 goals this season are fewer than seven other Eastern Conference teams have managed, and only D.C. United has managed fewer (nine), while NYRB and the Union sit even with Orlando.
Orlando City has yet to score more than two goals in a game this season, and it has been shut out completely on two occasions. While Cyle Larin has been mostly great, Carlos Rivas has showed flashes of brilliance, and Kaká is still rounding into shape after a long injury layoff, we can’t assume that the Lions’ offense will start rampaging and open up a significant goal-differential gap. Until they prove otherwise, the Lions will likely to continue to rely on solid defense and doing just enough offensively to get by, which isn’t a recipe for the type of +19 and +17 goal differentials we saw from NYRB as it topped the East over the last two seasons.
While Orlando is firmly in line for a playoff berth based off its early goal differential returns, we could see the Lions move into a battle for the fourth or fifth postseason spots in the East rather than the first or second if they don’t start winning more comfortably and widening their goal differential a bit. But there is much soccer still to be played, and if the Houston scoreline was the type of aberration we believe it was, that should begin to reflect over time with a recovery in the GD column.
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A Note About Hurricane Milton and The Mane Land
First of all, be safe. Second of all, be safe. Third of all, here’s what’s up regarding our upcoming schedule.
Hello, Mane Landers! With another powerful storm bearing down on the Sunshine State, it’s good to know that Orlando City and OCB are off and the Pride are on the road this weekend. We hope that everyone remains safe as Hurricane Milton passes through and near the areas in which many of you (and us) live.
As always, I hate writing these pieces but it seems to be required at least once per year, so I wanted to let everyone know that we at The Mane Land are going to do our best to continue our normal coverage and publication schedule as best we can — understanding that we are not a priority for anyone in the area at the moment. Our schedule in the coming days is not really up to us, as there are always unknown aspects to every storm, and while Hurricane Milton may or may not disrupt some or all of us personally, there are cell, internet, and electricity services that could be affected — something far beyond our control — to the point where our normal service isn’t possible. So we ask that you be aware of that and to be patient if that happens.
Hopefully our cable/satellite/electricity/internet will stay on for all the normal reasons, as well as so we can continue our coverage of Orlando’s soccer teams.
As Hurricane Milton threatens our state, we want to wish all of you the best of luck. Mother Nature is not a force to be trifled with, so we hope that everyone takes the mindset to err on the side of caution rather than take unnecessary risks. The weather is undefeated and should never be challenged.
The weather is undefeated and should never be challenged.
For those who read us throughout the Central Florida area and beyond, please let this serve as a reminder that several of our writers will be within reach of the storm, and all or some of us could find ourselves without power, internet, and/or cell service soon. Some of our staff members live in the more vulnerable areas along the Gulf Coast and Space Coast, where flooding could be severe.
When The Weather Channel sends people to your area to broadcast about the storm, you definitely take notice.
The safety of the TML staff is obviously of paramount importance to me. I urge all of our staff to take appropriate precautions, including – should they deem it necessary – evacuation. I urge everyone to be wherever they’re going to be by 5 p.m. tonight and then to stay put. As a website, we will strive to continue to function as normally as possible over the coming days.
I will personally do everything in my power (provided I have power and either the internet or cell service, or both) to maintain the site’s schedule of features with whatever breaking news we can cover over the span of the storm’s passing and beyond. However, please be aware that the site could potentially go without updates for an indeterminate period if the storm is particularly destructive and leaves us without power/internet, or with more immediate problems that must be overcome before we can even think about sitting down to write a blog post or record a podcast. This may be unavoidable, but we will do everything we can to avoid it.
I will try to provide updates from The Mane Land Twitter account (@TheManeLand) periodically to let people know that we’re OK as I get reports from our staff, and what the status of stories will be over the days (and weeks, if need be) to come. We hope the storm isn’t too disruptive to our daily functions but…this is a blog and it is infinitely less important than real life. I guess what I’m trying to say is that we’ll do what we have to do and get back to normal as quickly as we can.
Hopefully I’ll be able to look back on this post in a few days and laugh about having written it.
But this is a two-way community, so enough about us. Where are you located in relation to the storm’s path? What are you doing to prepare for the hurricane? Are you getting out of harm’s way, or are you staying put? How are you planning to pass the time? What are your best hurricane hacks? Let us know what you’re up to in the comments section below and keep us updated on how the weather is affecting your area.
Stay safe, Lion Nation.
Uncategorized
Reflecting on Eight Years with The Mane Land
A look back over my time with The Mane Land (so far).
As of last week, I have been a contributor at The Mane Land for eight years. That’s longer than I’ve ever been at any of my actual jobs in my life. There are literally only a couple of people who have been with the site longer, but I’m still amazed at how long it’s been. This is not to say I’m going anywhere, but rather I wanted to take the opportunity to look back at the past eight years, and look ahead to the future.
Unlike some, I didn’t come to be a supporter of Orlando City until it was announced that the club was joining MLS. At the time, I was contemplating picking a club to follow in MLS, but being in Tallahassee, there were no nearby options at that time. I considered FC Dallas and D.C. United, given the two were geographically closer in proximity to me than any others. Fortunately, it was literally while I was considering my options that the announcement was made regarding Orlando City’s jump to MLS. It was an easy decision.
As I do in many aspects of my life, I immediately started researching my new club, which led me to the content being produced by The Mane Land. There was also an article on the site titled “Join The Mane Land Staff.” I had often over the years internally bemoaned that I rarely used my Bachelor’s degree in English, and the desire to write welled up in me so much that I emailed the staff.
In response, one of our former editors, Andrew Marcinko, contacted me and said “I think your voice would be a great fit on TML.” He asked me to submit a Fan Post (those went away with our presence on SBN), and then another piece for review. Following that, our founder and managing editor, Michael Citro, emailed me to welcome me to the staff. I had no idea at the time how big a part of my life this blog would become.
I started out writing Monday’s Lions Links — often one of the more difficult days to write — and a feature piece. It’s been many years gone by now, but there was a time when the feature piece was “Pride Pub,” an ongoing series that paired craft beer and good food based on Orlando City’s opponent. I can tell you that the research for that was very enjoyable, and I still use some of the recipes I found to this day.
Eventually, I started contributing more match coverage and analytical pieces. Staff came and went, but I never thought to leave since I was enjoying myself. Sometime after that, I was promoted to senior columnist, for which I’m grateful. I can without reservation say that I’m a better writer thanks to my time with the site, and from working with such excellent staff.
In November of 2016, Michael asked if I wanted to give co-hosting The Mane Land PawedCast a try. My first recording was for Episode 71. We just recorded Episode 354, and with the exception of maybe two or three episodes, I have been on every single one of 283 episodes over the last six plus years. Michael and I have spent a lot of time talking on and off the podcast over the years, and I’m proud of what we have produced and to call him my friend.
We recently added an Orlando Pride-specific podcast called Skopurp: An Orlando Pride PawedCast. For years we wanted to give the Pride the time and attention the club deserves. Now, it is a reality, but one that I ask you to listen to and share. I’ll even put out that although Michael and I are the current hosts, we merely consider ourselves stewards and are hoping to get others to come onboard and eventually take it to the next level.
When I started with The Mane Land, the site had just made the move from a free WordPress site to the SBNation network. It was a big deal, and for many years it was a good partnership. Of course that all came to an end not too long ago, and our blog went the independent route thanks to the incredibly generous support of our readers and listeners. In fact, if you want to be one of those supporting our efforts, please go to our Buy Me A Coffee site to become a member. The move has allowed a flexibility we didn’t have before, but I really want others to have the same sense of joy and accomplishment that I have as a member of our staff.
At one point we had nearly twice the staff that we do now, and as you know, many hands make light work. The opposite of that is also true. I genuinely believe that there must be others out there with the same passion for Orlando City as I have — with the same desire to have their voice heard, whether through the written word or on a podcast. I promise you there is an opportunity to contribute here with us. Our internal discussions are informative, engaging, and often funny. Please consider joining us, as I did eight years ago. I haven’t regretted it and I know you won’t either.
I want to thank all of those who contributed to The Mane Land over the years. There are many that I am still in touch with, though they are no longer a part of the staff. Of course, the current staff are a pleasure to work with, and I appreciate their dedication to what we are trying to do.
Finally, I want to thank the readers and listeners over the years. From those who regularly comment on our articles, to those that I’ve personally met at matches or even randomly on the street, you are a big reason that we do all of this. You are a big reason why I’ve been doing this for the better part of a decade. it is always a genuine pleasure hearing your thoughts or simply sharing a moment of joy together — U.S. Open Cup final, anyone?
So, thank you. I look forward to many more years of this journey together.
Orlando City
The Mane Land Announces Membership Program
Maximize your Mane Land experience with our new TML membership program while supporting our independent efforts.
Hello, readers of The Mane Land and listeners of our podcasts. Before you start reading this, please note that the most important part of this post is at the end. So, don’t stop until you get to the bottom.
You may recall that when we left SBNation to become independent, we really weren’t sure the best way to go about that. Many of our readers and listeners generously offered to help us make that transition, but we still weren’t sure the best path forward, so we took a poll.
The poll was pretty much split down the middle between those who preferred a one-time, Kickstarter-style campaign (which we did, and those of you who stepped up to help completely blew us away!) and those who favored a Patreon-style, subscription-based membership with extra perks. In fact, the member subscriptions option got a few more votes in our poll.
The folks who took part in our GoFundMe fundraiser were fantastic and are now immortalized on this very site on the “Our Founders” page. But we had always planned to give folks the option to choose whichever method of support they preferred and we tried to communicate that throughout the process. It took a little longer than expected to get up and running, but our membership subscription program is now in place! (You may notice the fancy new banner ad about it on the home page, echoed below.)
Part of that delay was thinking up something that didn’t encroach on the benefits we gave our Founders. Those folks helped us get started and deserve the exclusivity of the perks they got. The other part of the delay is that there just aren’t enough hours in the day. (However, for you guys, I’m willing to be cloned.)
We have utilized the popular Buy Me a Coffee platform to run this program. You can find the basics here. The Mane Land premium membership program includes three tiers of membership, as well as the option to click on the “Support” tab for those who just want to help us out whenever, without joining the program or adding any recurring “appointment-based” payments to their budgets. We love that feature of Buy Me a Coffee (or “Buy Us a Beer” in our case…you drink what you like).
For those who do choose to become members, we hope we have provided value and we are planning to add benefits along the way, in addition to providing special giveaways, events, etc. (more on that below). We have also provided subscription options — with monthly or annual memberships. The annual cost essentially gives you 12 months for the price of 10.
Current Benefits
The current membership benefits depend on which level of support you choose — Homegrown Player, TAM Player, or Designated Player level. Each level includes all benefits from the lower tiers, with additional benefits for each higher level.
Homegrown Player: This is a basic set-it-and-forget-it level of support for The Mane Land, providing a way for our readers and podcast listeners to contribute to the success of TML‘s independence goals. We want to compensate our current volunteers, replace lost income of those who previously received small stipends from being part of the SBNation network, add photographers, attract new writers, and expand our coverage. Additionally, each Homegrown Player Level member will be recognized in a Lion Links column, which is still typically our most widely read post of each day and one of the top daily links columns among soccer sites. Homegrown Player Level members will also be included in any future prize drawings we have or events we host and may be subject to future benefits as they are added.
TAM Player: In addition to Homegrown Player benefits, TAM Players will receive a new weekly e-newsletter in their inbox (unless you opt out…some people hate email). These will be informal missives from myself, other TML writers, or a combination, discussing what’s on our mind regarding Orlando City, the Pride, OCB, or soccer in general. Think of it as an extra post from our site that may cover multiple topics. Additionally, you’ll get a 10% discount from our web shop items that we control (presently, that means everything except our listed MLS Shop items). We will definitely have more benefits coming for this level soon and will look for opportunities to include additional benefits as they become available.
Designated Player: This limited availability level of support includes all perks from the Homegrown and TAM levels, but it goes beyond. Your discount at our webshop (for items we control) will be 15% off. Additionally, we’ll send you Zoom links to watch us “make the doughnuts” whenever we record the podcast. This includes when we interview guests. You’ll see how the sausage is made behind the scenes and everything that we say, some of which will end up on the cutting room floor before the final podcast is sent out. This includes both The Mane Land PawedCast and SkoPurp Soccer: An Orlando Pride PawedCast. And after two months of membership you can commission a bonus episode of either podcast simply by letting us know what topic you want us to cover. Think of this as an extended Ask Us Anything. We’ll do a whole show about your topic and you can even join us to discuss it if you wish.
The DP Level will certainly have additional benefits tacked on as we move forward. It is currently limited to 40 members but could be expanded slightly depending on demand and our Zoom attendance.
Future Benefits / Benefits Under Consideration
While we won’t be able to schedule these due to the random nature of items falling into our hands, there will be periodic prize giveaways in drawings that include all of our members, regardless of level. The catch is that you get one entry per level of support, meaning Homegrown Player Level members will get one entry per prize drawing, TAM Player Level members will get two entries per drawing, and Designated Player Level members get three entries for prize drawings. Some of the kinds of items we have come across in the past include match tickets, trinkets, posters, scarves, and so on.
We are planning to add a message board to our website, well…soon-ish is the word that comes to mind. The plan for the message board is to build our community and further the discussion about the club. As part of this, we’re planning an exclusive, members-only area of that message board that TAM and DP members can access. This will be a place our staff can share informational nuggets we can’t necessarily write stories about for various reasons and interact with our members on a daily basis.
Other things in the works include meet-and-greets/watch parties where you can chat with TML staff members and catch a road match with a bunch of like-minded Orlando City/Pride fans while we all cheer on the team together. There may also be other informal outings with one or more members of the staff, organized fantasy leagues, random Zoom calls for Q&A sessions, and perhaps even some organized group outings for Orlando City / Pride matches, national team games, etc.
The Most Important Part of This Post
Remember at the top of this post, when I said the most important part is at the bottom? Well, that seems like a long time ago, now, so it’s OK if you’ve already forgotten.
The most important part of our membership program is you. We want your feedback so we can make this program something that interests and excites you. We want to know what you like and dislike about this program. We want to know if there are some things we didn’t think of that interest you. If you like what we’re offering, tell us! If you hate what we’re offering, we want to know what you’d prefer instead or in addition. If you want to go drinking with Dave, we can probably arrange that, but it’ll be a unique tier and we’ll have to figure out the cost of that.
No idea is too crazy to suggest, even if it’s too insane for us to actually offer. Let us know what you want from your subscription and we’ll see if that’s something we can do. We’ll make it easy for you by putting the form right here below this post, which is now concluded.
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