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Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. New York Red Bulls

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7 years ago

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After taking a week off to get healthier, Orlando City takes the pitch again this weekend to square off against the New York Red Bulls. There are plenty of storylines going into Saturday’s mid-day match, including Sacha Kljestan meeting up with his former team and Carlos Rivas’ return to Orlando. The Lions are still looking for their first win of the 2018 season while New York is juggling the league and the semifinals of the CONCACAF Champions League. Dom Dwyer should make his long-awaited return to the field this weekend and perhaps we’ll see what Josué Colmán can really do.

And while the Red Bulls continue to play the same brand of soccer, there are a few new key players wearing red and white to get to know. So we touched base with Austin Fido, managing editor of SB Nation’s own Once a Metro to get the scoop on New York’s red team. I also answered his questions and you can find those over at his place.

The Red Bulls’ offense has been clicking even after the departure of Sacha Kljestan. What has been the key to New York’s early success in 2018?

Austin Fido: I think the simple answer — and the one the team might itself endorse — is that RBNY has had a consistent tactical philosophy since 2015 and has single-mindedly focused on recruiting players that fit the desired system and style of play for the last three seasons. So the core of the team knows exactly what it is supposed to do, and the new arrivals and emerging talents know exactly what they need to do to rise up the depth chart. That, plus the fact a few players have started the year in excellent form — BWP and Luis Robles most notably, perhaps — adds up to a team that knows itself very well and has been able to get out to a quick start in 2018.

There’s a little more to it than that, of course. In part, the team has been perhaps fortunate to be matched up against opponents in MLS and CONCACAF Champions League who aren’t playing nearly as fluidly, for one reason or another. In part, RBNY should get credit for a well-planned preseason: it wasn’t really reflected in the results of the squad’s February friendlies, but clearly the plan — which was to have a squad capable of competing in both CCL and MLS from the get-go — has worked. This is particularly praise-worthy because the club scheduled a very similar preseason for itself last year, and didn’t kick off the season nearly as well. The front office and technical staff clearly absorbed a number of lessons from that experience, and the team seems to be much the better for it. 

It’s also very helpful that several of the new arrivals — Tim Parker, Kyle Duncan and yes, even the oft-maligned Carlos Rivas — have settled in quickly and with near-immediate positive impact on the field. Again, credit the technical staff for their own development of their craft. The team signs new players every year, but they don’t always work out as well, as quickly as the 2018 intake appears to have done.

The next challenge is to sustain the run of results as our opponents in MLS and CCL get progressively better. In the league, we’ll soon start running into teams that have shaken off the early-season rust, or never had any in the first place. And in CCL, the challenge gets progressively more difficult, as tends to be the case in knockout competitions. But the first hurdle — the first month of the season — has been cleared with style and confidence.

Bradley Wright-Phillips has started this season hot, scoring three goals in three games even without Sacha. What has been the secret to his success even at this late stage in his career?

AF: For me, there’s no secret: he’s an extremely intelligent player, and that’s been the basis of his success in MLS since he arrived at RBNY. He’ll age out of the game at some point, but he hasn’t been a player relying on exceptional physical gifts at any stage of his career with the Red Bulls; rather, he relies on exceptional movement and reading of the game around him. 

Further evidence of his intelligence: he’s adapted to a significant tactical shift at the club. He’s won two Golden Boots playing for two very different teams — almost two oppositional teams. The side Mike Petke coached was built around Thierry Henry and controlling possession. Jesse Marsch coaches to the principles of RalfBall, which is more about controlling space. Through the turbulent transition between those distinct eras of RBNY soccer, BWP has remained the team’s top-scorer — and an elite scorer by MLS standards (indeed, by most leagues’ standards). 

He’s been able to do that, I would argue, because he’s one of the smartest players at RBNY, and in MLS. His body will eventually let him down, but as long as he can keep up with the physical demands of a pro soccer career, I think he’ll continue to be an elite player because it’s his mind that makes him special, and that might be the one thing a pro athlete can reasonably expect to improve with age, rather than diminish.

Nonetheless, we’re not used to seeing BWP scoring quite this freely this early in the year. He has tended to need a few games to get into form during his time at RBNY. Jesse Marsch has repeatedly mentioned BWP came into preseason prepared and focused (last year, he was juggling preseason with the arrival of a newborn child), and very obviously wants us to know that if Wright-Phillips appears to be in mid-season form in March, it’s because it’s exactly what he spent the winter working toward.

Will the trip to Guadalajara for the CONCACAF Champions League tie with Chivas a few days after the match affect how Jesse Marsch lines his team up this weekend?

AF: Jesse has been quite consistent so far this season: he plays whatever he thinks is his strongest team in CCL. In MLS, he uses whatever he thinks is the strongest team that won’t weaken the CCL lineup. I expect him to stick to that approach for this game. 

That doesn’t necessarily mean Orlando will see a reserve team in RBNY shirts. For a start, the concept of “reserves” gets a little blurred when you have multiple players consistently starting and playing well. Kyle Duncan has started all three of RBNY’s league games so far this season. He’s played well — the team has won two out of three of those games. Is he really a reserve? We’ll find out when Marsch is allowing himself to pick from his full squad, rather than effectively dividing the roster into MLS and CCL lineups. That won’t be this weekend.

For now, Jesse is trying to keep legs fresh for CCL and we’re basically watching two near-separate RBNY squads. My impression is he decides on the team he wants to play in CCL and then works backwards to what that means for MLS games. The formation — RBNY flips pretty comfortably between a three-at-the-back formation supplemented by wing backs, and a more conventional four-man back line — will depend on whichever players are picked for the match, with perhaps some slight concession to the opponent. 

Having said that, few things are more consistent about RBNY these days than the capacity of its head coach to surprise fans with his team selections. Very often, when we think we’ve figured out where Jesse’s head is at with respect to the roster, he changes something. So expect a Red Bull “reserve” team, and don’t be shocked if that isn’t the case.

Also note that the second-string squad currently includes senior players like Aurelien Collin and newly-signed DP Kaku (still finding his way into the team’s system), and club captain Luis Robles hasn’t missed a game yet this season.

What injuries/suspensions will keep players out this weekend and what is your predicted lineup and final score? 

AF: Fidel Escobar is returning from international duty with an injury. Kaku missed RBNY’s last outing with a previously undisclosed knock, though not one thought to be particularly serious. Amir Murillo, Tyler Adams, and Kemar Lawrence will also be recently returned from national team outings and they are considered likely starters for CCL, so consider it a mild surprise if any of them even appear on the bench.

Predicted lineup: Luis Robles; Connor Lade, Aurelien Collin, Aaron Long, Kyle Duncan; Marc Rzatkowski, Florian Valot; Derrick Etienne, Kaku, Ben Mines; Carlos Rivas.

Score: On the road with more or less a second-string lineup against a team due a win, I think we’ll do well to get a draw. I also think we won’t get a draw — Orlando to win, 2-1

Thanks again to Austin for taking the time to answer our questions and giving us some insight on the Red Bulls.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

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13 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

15 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

Published

18 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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