Orlando City
Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Portland Timbers
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/OPvReign-2019-10-12-1-scaled.jpg)
The Portland Timbers are trending upward, taking two points from their last two after being battered in their opening matches of 2018. But they travel across the continent to Central Florida to take on an Orlando City team that is also on the upswing after a wild 4-3 victory over the New York Red Bulls.
There’s a new boss at the helm in the Rose City and, while the bulk of the roster has remained intact, the team that topped last year’s Western Conference has struggled to get results this time around.
For what to expect of this year’s Timbers, we’ve asked Will Conwell from Portland’s SB Nation blog Stumptown Footy to give us some insight. I also answered some questions about our side and you can find them over at their place.
How has life been after Caleb Porter and how has Giovanni Savarese left his mark on this team?
Will Conwell: Saravese has certainly had an impact on the Timbers through four games this season, changing up the side’s tactical approach after five years of playing under Porter. In those four games there have been definite struggles as the team looks to adjust to their new look, but as the team has adapted to Saravese and Saravese has adapted to the team, the results have gone from disappointing to encouraging over the course of the Timbers’ season-opening road trip.
Under Porter, the Timbers developed an identity as a team that was capable of holding the ball and would wear down teams with their possession, as well as being a side capable of picking their moments and striking out on the break after dropping deep and welcoming their opposition forward.
In many ways, Saravese’s preferred approach to the game is the opposite of this. Given the right personnel, Saravese would love to be a team that actively presses high up the pitch, turning over the opposing team deep in their own end and creating the sort of high value chances that come when the defense is out of its shape. Unfortunately, while the Timbers’ attacking trio of Fanendo Adi, Diego Valeri, and Sebastian Blanco are all capable of being quite active on the defensive front, none seem particularly inclined toward the sort of high energy performance it takes to press all game.
That is not to say that the Timbers have abandoned the high press. In last weekend’s 2-2 road draw against the Chicago Fire, the Timbers were able to put the home side on the back foot for much of the match, getting the opening goal early in the match after turning over the Fire and taking advantage on the break. Saravese is still determining how best to make use of his players, but the seeds that he has planted with the side are showing definite signs of growth.
Portland’s defense struggled through March, allowing nine goals in four matches. Liam Ridgewell’s exclusion from the side has been a major talking point; are the two things related?
WC: Ridgewell was on the field for six of the Timbers’ nine goals allowed so far this season and as the team captain, his lack of effort in the side’s 4-0 week two loss to the New York Red Bulls was particularly galling.
In the first two matches that the Timbers — and Ridgewell — played, the side were disorganized and disheartened. The back line was out of sync, the midfield was disconnected, and the forwards were stranded on an island by themselves. Not all of that can be pinned on Ridgewell, but as a veteran and the team captain, it is on him to rally the side through words or deeds and it appeared that he went for neither.
What’s more, Ridgewell’s game has long been built around his ability to take a timely step up and break up a play with a headed ball away, an interception, or a timely foul. Without a dedicated defensive midfielder in front of him, dropping back onto the back line as David Guzman or Diego Chara did so often in 2017, Ridgewell has struggled to keep from opening up holes on the back line through his play. In the right situation and the right formation, Ridgewell’s instincts could still serve him well, but with the changes that Saravese has looked to implement this year he has often been the odd man out.
Recent word from the Timbers camp is that Ridgewell has taken the benching like a professional and is training well. Ridgewell is training so well, according to word from this week’s training sessions, he is in consideration for a return to the 18 this weekend. This is all, of course, exactly what the Timbers should be saying and after two weeks in exile, it seems as likely as not that the Timbers will continue to turn to Larrys Mabiala and Bill Tuiloma, the self-proclaimed “French Connection,” to be their starting center backs.
How has the team dealt with Darlington Nagbe’s high-priced departure over the off-season?
WC: The loss of Nagbe to Atlanta United, the Timbers’ first draft pick and a staple of the side since they joined Major League Soccer in 2011, has been difficult for the Timbers to deal with as they adjust to life without him.
Nagbe brings a number of things to the pitch, but first and foremost is an absolute inability to lose the ball. A pass anywhere near Nagbe at any speed is as good as received. Getting the ball on Nagbe’s foot means that he will get off a pass to another player on his team just about every time. Losing that remarkable knack for possession makes things difficult for the Timbers. Without Nagbe, the Timbers have lost one of their most effective pressure release valves. They no longer have a player that they can just pass the ball near and expect good things to happen.
At the same time, the loss of Nagbe has been freeing for the Timbers.
Nagbe’s unwillingness or inability to get involved in the attack in a regularly effective manner has long been a source of frustration for anyone who watches him play. Without Nabge on the pitch, the Timbers have looked to Sebastian Blanco to provide many of the same services in transition that Nagbe once did and they have profited from it. While Blanco is far from the possession machine that Nagbe was for the Timbers, his creativity, flair, and attacking mindset have already paid dividends this year with three goals and an assist through four games.
In Nagbe’s absence and with teams unable to ignore the dual attacking threats of Diego Valeri and Fanendo Adi, Blanco should continue to flourish this year.
What injuries/suspensions will keep players out this weekend and what is your projected lineup and predicted final score?
WC: (4-3-2-1) Jake Gleeson; Vytautas Andriuškevičius, Bill Tuiloma, Larrys Mabiala, Zarek Valentin; Christhian Paredes, Diego Chara, Andres Flores; Sebastian Blanco, Diego Valeri; Fanendo Adi
2-1 Orlando, with a Will Johnson goal and a Dom Dwyer red card.
Thanks again to Will for taking the time to provide some information on this weekend’s visitors.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/The_more_you_know.0.jpg)
Opinion
Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024
Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/OCvMontreal-LeaguesCup-2024.07.26-29-1-scaled.jpg)
Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?
The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.
For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.
Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.
It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.
Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.
Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.
Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.
Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.
Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 9/6/24
Amanda Allen loaned to Lexington SC, Alex Morgan announces retirement, USMNT prepares for Canada, and more.
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Happy Friday! I don’t have many plans this weekend, but am still looking forward to the next few days after a hectic week. When not working, I plan on finally starting Book of Night by Holly Black and figuring out how to make the most out of some dark rum I was gifted. For now though, let’s get to today’s links from around the soccer world!
Amanda Allen Loaned to Lexington SC
The Orlando Pride have loaned forward Amanda Allen to Lexington SC for the remainder of the USL Super League season. This decision should give Allen some valuable minutes, and the loan includes a right to recall as well. The 19-year-old has made 17 appearances since joining the Pride and had an assist in this year’s season opener. She is also currently in Colombia for the U-20 Women’s World Cup and her Canada squad takes on Brazil tonight. Hopefully she’s able to tear it up in the USL Super League’s inaugural season.
Alex Morgan Announces Her Retirement
American forward Alex Morgan has announced that she will retire after the San Diego Wave’s match on Sunday. She also announced that she is pregnant with her second child.
In her 224 international appearances, Morgan scored 123 goals and was a major force behind the USWNT’s back-to-back World Cup victories in 2015 and 2019. At the club level, she has played in every year of the NWSL’s existence and joined the Orlando Pride ahead of their inaugural season in 2016. In her six years in Orlando, Morgan recorded 23 goals and 10 assists in 69 appearances. Off the field, she’s been an outspoken supporter of equality and increased investment in women’s sports. We wish her the best of luck after a legendary career.
USMNT Faces Canada on Saturday
The United States Men’s National Team will take on Canada on Saturday in Kansas City in the first of two friendlies this month. Plenty has changed since the U.S. beat Canada in a penalty shootout in the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup quarterfinals, particularly on the sideline. American coach Jesse Marsch was hired by Canada in May, while the U.S. will be led by Mikey Varas in an interim capacity amid buzz that Mauricio Pochettino will take over. The U.S. is without Giovanni Reyna for these friendlies due to injury, with Cade Cowell replacing him. Canada boasts a talented roster that includes a trio of former Lions in Cyle Larin, Richie Laryea, and Kamal Miller. After this match, the USMNT will take on New Zealand on Tuesday.
Keeping Up With International Soccer
San Marino may be one of the smallest countries in the world, but it arguably had the biggest win of a busy day of international soccer after beating Liechtenstein 1-0 for its first competitive victory. Elsewhere in the UEFA Nations League, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia, while Spain was held to a scoreless draw in Serbia.
The third round of AFC World Cup qualifying is underway and Australia was upset 1-0 at home by Bahrain. Japan suffered no such setback though, dominating China in a 7-0 home win. Palestine drew 0-0 against South Korea in Seoul, which is no easy task.
CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifiers have also resumed, and Bolivia came up with a huge 4-0 win in high altitude against Venezuela to move up the table. We may see some Lions in action today. Facundo Torres and Uruguay take on Paraguay, while Pedro Gallese, Wilder Cartagena, and Peru host Colombia.
Free Kicks
- FC Cincinnati’s Luca Orellano won MLS Goal of the Matchday for scoring from nearly 80 yards out to beat CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois. Orlando’s Facundo Torres placed second in the voting for his volleyed strike against Nashville SC.
- NJ/NY Gotham FC forward Ella Stevens was named NWSL Player of the Month after recording three goals and two assists in August.
- Argentina beat Brazil in blind soccer at the Paralympics, ending Brazil’s unbeaten streak that has lasted the past 20 years. France and Argentina will face off in the gold medal game on Saturday.
- Chris Jurasek has stepped down as Chelsea’s chief executive after a year in the position, with Jason Gannon replacing him.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season
A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CityReper83124-42.jpg)
We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.
The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:
- Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
- Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
- At Columbus (1.96, second)
- At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
- Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
- At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
- Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)
As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.
In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.
In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)
New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Last-7-Games-1024x257.png)
A few takeaways from this chart:
- I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
- That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
- Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
- Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.
During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Possible-7-Game-Results.png)
Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.
Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.
No, that loss still stunk.
Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Algorithm-1024x262.png)
That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Rank-Order.png)
Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.
I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.
While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.
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