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Why We Shouldn’t Freak Out About Dom Dwyer’s Miss on Saturday
Dom Dwyer has understandably been the subject of many scalding hot takes after his miss on Saturday. Ruan put the ball on a platter for him six minutes after he was introduced off the bench at New York City FC and the Orlando City striker botched what many have called “the easiest chance he’ll have all year.”
Personally, I hope Dwyer has some easier chances still to come in 2019 as Orlando’s newer players learn more about the diminutive forward and give him even better quality service, but I’ll not argue against Saturday’s chance being the sitterest of sitters. Many have criticized Dwyer’s finishing this season and rightfully so, as he’s not been as sharp to start the season as we might expect, considering the quality of chances. It’s perfectly fine to be mad or even #MadOnline about Dwyer’s miss. It’s possible he’s let it go by now himself, but no doubt he was kicking himself for it on Saturday.
But the Cuckfield, England native has always been a streaky player and it’s something that our Sporting Kansas City brethren talked about at the time Orlando City acquired him via trade in 2017.
Dom is a streaky player and while he scored the second-most goals of anyone in club history, he could have and really should have had many more. Some fans have been screaming for years now that Dwyer is overrated, but they are crazy.
Dom has always been this way and it’s revisionist history to think otherwise. He misses maddeningly simple-looking chances, but he does provide offense.
Just because Dwyer has been streaky at finishing, it doesn’t mean he hasn’t been a productive contributor. In fact, as difficult as it was for me to believe when crunching the numbers, he’s actually been contributing at a higher rate than is typical throughout his career, although nine games is admittedly a small sample size.
For all the hand wringing by fans, Dwyer has been involved in five goals in nine games, scoring three and setting up two others. He’s only finished with more than his current tally of two assists on the season twice in his career. He assisted on five goals in 2017 — four of those coming after he was traded from Sporting Kansas City to Orlando City — and three in 2016. A striker involved in an average of a goal every other game is generally considered good in MLS. Maybe not Zlatan-level or Carlos Vela-level, but generally within what one might expect. (If you’re looking for Carlos Vela-level, you’ll have to convince Orlando City to go out and get Vela.)
But let’s look deeper to see if this is “not the same Dwyer” that was producing at SKC.
So far in 2019, Dwyer is scoring or assisting on a goal for every 104.8 minutes he’s on the pitch. His previous best goals + assists rate was once every 118.4 minutes in 2014. That season, Dwyer scored a career-high 22 goals with one assist in 33 appearances (31 starts) for a defending MLS champion Sporting side that went 14-13-7 in the Eastern (yes, Eastern) Conference. The Sporks made the playoffs that year but were knocked out by the Red Bulls in the first round. Dwyer scored 22 of SKC’s 48 total goals that year.
Here’s how Dwyer has done through the years:
- 2019 (So far): Goal or assist every 104.8 minutes in nine games (four starts).
- 2018: Goal or assist every 172.6 minutes in 26 games (25 starts).
- 2017 (Orlando only): Goal or assist every 121.9 minutes in 12 games (11 starts).
- 2017 (Overall): Goal or assist every 160.4 minutes in 27 games (25 starts).
- 2016: Goal or assist every 148.6 minutes in 33 games (31 starts).
- 2015: Goal or assist every 181.9 minutes in 30 games (28 starts).
- 2014: Goal or assist every 118.4 minutes in 33 games (31 starts).
- 2013: Goal or assist every 168.5 minutes in 16 games (7 starts).
- 2012: No goals or assists in four minutes of play in one game (subbed on).
In looking at 2019 Dom vs. Doms from other years, the current model is not producing fewer goals + assists per minutes played. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Admittedly this review doesn’t take into account advanced metrics like expected goals, but it’s still telling. After all, if he’s producing at a higher rate in terms of goals + assists per minutes but he’s not finishing as many expected goals as he should be, that should indicate he’s at least getting into position more often for an expected goal than ever before. I’ll leave the xG breakdown for another day, as this piece is already long.
Add in the fact that most of Dwyer’s previous top seasons have come while playing on a solid playoff team in Kansas City, meaning he probably had a better overall surrounding cast, and this year’s numbers are more surprising. But there is another factor that I haven’t yet addressed.
Dwyer has been a starting striker throughout his career since 2014. He’s made a few substitute appearances but the high mark for that came way back in 2013, when he was breaking into the league. That year, he was used as a sub nine times in 16 matches. Since then, Dwyer has subbed on no more than twice in any season until this year. He was a sub only once in 2018 and just twice in 2017 (once for Orlando, once for SKC), 2016, 2015, and 2014.
Still only age 28, one wouldn’t think Dwyer to be over the hill quite yet. However, he has had some nagging injuries in recent seasons, so it’s logical that James O’Connor would like to manage his minutes to keep him fresh throughout the season.
That said, the numbers show a disparity when Dwyer starts versus when he comes off the bench.
Because he hasn’t been used as a sub much throughout his career, it’s difficult to draw many conclusions from previous seasons. Subbing on only once or twice a year doesn’t reveal many patterns. The only two seasons in which he had a nearly 50/50 split of starts to substitute appearances have been 2013 and (so far) 2019.
It’s difficult to glean much from 2013, because his first nine appearances of that year were off the bench and he played fewer than 10 minutes in four of those as he was still establishing himself in the league. Still, he managed only one goal and no assists in those nine games, firing six shots but getting only one on target — his goal against the New York Red Bulls on Aug. 3, 2013. His first start of that season produced a Dwyer assist and one shot (on target) against the Colorado Rapids. After not seeing the field against Columbus, Dwyer started SKC’s last six games, scoring a goal and adding an assist while taking 21 shots (five on frame).
In 2019 it’s been easier to track his production as a starter versus as a sub. He’s no longer a young player breaking into the side. How he’s gotten his appearances has been more consistent and he’s not had a long streak of starts or sub appearances. With a more even distribution of his appearances, some patterns have emerged early this season.
Dwyer has appeared in nine games, with four starts and five games as a substitute. In his four starts, Dom has played 342 minutes, scoring two goals, firing 20 shots (eight on target) and committing six fouls. As a sub, Dwyer has played 182 minutes, producing one goal and two assists, firing five shots (officially four, but somehow the scorer didn’t give him one on Saturday at NYCFC, so I had to add it for the purposes of this piece) with just two on target. He’s committed 10 fouls as a sub.
Breaking down these numbers further, Dwyer produces a goal every 171 minutes as a starter and also a goal or assist every 171 minutes as a starter. As a sub, Dwyer is producing a goal every 182 minutes but there is a slight uptick in goals + assists, with one or the other produced every 60.7 minutes. As for chances, Dwyer averages a shot every 17.1 minutes when starting in 2019 as opposed to a shot every 36.4 minutes off the bench. He shoots on frame once every 42.8 minutes as a starter compared to once every 91 (!) minutes off the bench. Finally, Dwyer commits a foul about once every 57 minutes when starting while being whistled once every 18.2 minutes as a substitute.
With his two assists in 2019 providing a bit of an outlier in terms of his starting versus bench production, Dwyer seems more comfortable as a starter than as a sub. His goals, shots, and shots on target come more frequently when he starts the game and he doesn’t foul at nearly so high a rate as he does when he’s brought on later in the game.
Again, small sample size, but his numbers so far indicate he’s sharper when he’s on the field at kickoff rather than on the bench, as he’s cleaner with challenges and doesn’t go as long between shots or shots on target. Given the data available, O’Connor might be wise to find time in the second halves of games to get Dwyer rest rather than subbing him on later. The logic behind putting a quick, pesky Dwyer on against a fatigued back line is unassailable. It makes so much sense you’d need to be insane not to try it. But if Dwyer is going to find his rhythm and get hot again, it might be wiser to start him, because his numbers seem to indicate a higher comfort level in that role.
That said, maybe if O’Connor sticks with the current plan, Dwyer will adjust to his more varied role over time. As I’ve said, repeatedly, it’s early.
As for Dwyer’s miss Saturday, it happens in soccer. This weekend alone, Christian Ramirez of LAFC also missed a would-be game-winner on a chance where it was harder to miss the empty net than hit it.
But even those among the most prolific scorers in the game’s history can lack the right touch at the crucial moment.
Benching Dwyer won’t get him back into top form and the options behind him are limited to Tesho Akindele — who has a career high of seven goals back in 2014 — rookies Santiago Patino or Benji Michel, or someone who isn’t really a striker. So right now Dwyer is the best option for Orlando City and it’s probably best for all involved that he continues to get starts for now in order to try to round himself back into top form. The club can always re-evaluate the striker position in the lead-up to the summer window if things don’t change.
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A Note About Hurricane Milton and The Mane Land
First of all, be safe. Second of all, be safe. Third of all, here’s what’s up regarding our upcoming schedule.
Hello, Mane Landers! With another powerful storm bearing down on the Sunshine State, it’s good to know that Orlando City and OCB are off and the Pride are on the road this weekend. We hope that everyone remains safe as Hurricane Milton passes through and near the areas in which many of you (and us) live.
As always, I hate writing these pieces but it seems to be required at least once per year, so I wanted to let everyone know that we at The Mane Land are going to do our best to continue our normal coverage and publication schedule as best we can — understanding that we are not a priority for anyone in the area at the moment. Our schedule in the coming days is not really up to us, as there are always unknown aspects to every storm, and while Hurricane Milton may or may not disrupt some or all of us personally, there are cell, internet, and electricity services that could be affected — something far beyond our control — to the point where our normal service isn’t possible. So we ask that you be aware of that and to be patient if that happens.
Hopefully our cable/satellite/electricity/internet will stay on for all the normal reasons, as well as so we can continue our coverage of Orlando’s soccer teams.
As Hurricane Milton threatens our state, we want to wish all of you the best of luck. Mother Nature is not a force to be trifled with, so we hope that everyone takes the mindset to err on the side of caution rather than take unnecessary risks. The weather is undefeated and should never be challenged.
The weather is undefeated and should never be challenged.
For those who read us throughout the Central Florida area and beyond, please let this serve as a reminder that several of our writers will be within reach of the storm, and all or some of us could find ourselves without power, internet, and/or cell service soon. Some of our staff members live in the more vulnerable areas along the Gulf Coast and Space Coast, where flooding could be severe.
When The Weather Channel sends people to your area to broadcast about the storm, you definitely take notice.
The safety of the TML staff is obviously of paramount importance to me. I urge all of our staff to take appropriate precautions, including – should they deem it necessary – evacuation. I urge everyone to be wherever they’re going to be by 5 p.m. tonight and then to stay put. As a website, we will strive to continue to function as normally as possible over the coming days.
I will personally do everything in my power (provided I have power and either the internet or cell service, or both) to maintain the site’s schedule of features with whatever breaking news we can cover over the span of the storm’s passing and beyond. However, please be aware that the site could potentially go without updates for an indeterminate period if the storm is particularly destructive and leaves us without power/internet, or with more immediate problems that must be overcome before we can even think about sitting down to write a blog post or record a podcast. This may be unavoidable, but we will do everything we can to avoid it.
I will try to provide updates from The Mane Land Twitter account (@TheManeLand) periodically to let people know that we’re OK as I get reports from our staff, and what the status of stories will be over the days (and weeks, if need be) to come. We hope the storm isn’t too disruptive to our daily functions but…this is a blog and it is infinitely less important than real life. I guess what I’m trying to say is that we’ll do what we have to do and get back to normal as quickly as we can.
Hopefully I’ll be able to look back on this post in a few days and laugh about having written it.
But this is a two-way community, so enough about us. Where are you located in relation to the storm’s path? What are you doing to prepare for the hurricane? Are you getting out of harm’s way, or are you staying put? How are you planning to pass the time? What are your best hurricane hacks? Let us know what you’re up to in the comments section below and keep us updated on how the weather is affecting your area.
Stay safe, Lion Nation.
Uncategorized
Reflecting on Eight Years with The Mane Land
A look back over my time with The Mane Land (so far).
As of last week, I have been a contributor at The Mane Land for eight years. That’s longer than I’ve ever been at any of my actual jobs in my life. There are literally only a couple of people who have been with the site longer, but I’m still amazed at how long it’s been. This is not to say I’m going anywhere, but rather I wanted to take the opportunity to look back at the past eight years, and look ahead to the future.
Unlike some, I didn’t come to be a supporter of Orlando City until it was announced that the club was joining MLS. At the time, I was contemplating picking a club to follow in MLS, but being in Tallahassee, there were no nearby options at that time. I considered FC Dallas and D.C. United, given the two were geographically closer in proximity to me than any others. Fortunately, it was literally while I was considering my options that the announcement was made regarding Orlando City’s jump to MLS. It was an easy decision.
As I do in many aspects of my life, I immediately started researching my new club, which led me to the content being produced by The Mane Land. There was also an article on the site titled “Join The Mane Land Staff.” I had often over the years internally bemoaned that I rarely used my Bachelor’s degree in English, and the desire to write welled up in me so much that I emailed the staff.
In response, one of our former editors, Andrew Marcinko, contacted me and said “I think your voice would be a great fit on TML.” He asked me to submit a Fan Post (those went away with our presence on SBN), and then another piece for review. Following that, our founder and managing editor, Michael Citro, emailed me to welcome me to the staff. I had no idea at the time how big a part of my life this blog would become.
I started out writing Monday’s Lions Links — often one of the more difficult days to write — and a feature piece. It’s been many years gone by now, but there was a time when the feature piece was “Pride Pub,” an ongoing series that paired craft beer and good food based on Orlando City’s opponent. I can tell you that the research for that was very enjoyable, and I still use some of the recipes I found to this day.
Eventually, I started contributing more match coverage and analytical pieces. Staff came and went, but I never thought to leave since I was enjoying myself. Sometime after that, I was promoted to senior columnist, for which I’m grateful. I can without reservation say that I’m a better writer thanks to my time with the site, and from working with such excellent staff.
In November of 2016, Michael asked if I wanted to give co-hosting The Mane Land PawedCast a try. My first recording was for Episode 71. We just recorded Episode 354, and with the exception of maybe two or three episodes, I have been on every single one of 283 episodes over the last six plus years. Michael and I have spent a lot of time talking on and off the podcast over the years, and I’m proud of what we have produced and to call him my friend.
We recently added an Orlando Pride-specific podcast called Skopurp: An Orlando Pride PawedCast. For years we wanted to give the Pride the time and attention the club deserves. Now, it is a reality, but one that I ask you to listen to and share. I’ll even put out that although Michael and I are the current hosts, we merely consider ourselves stewards and are hoping to get others to come onboard and eventually take it to the next level.
When I started with The Mane Land, the site had just made the move from a free WordPress site to the SBNation network. It was a big deal, and for many years it was a good partnership. Of course that all came to an end not too long ago, and our blog went the independent route thanks to the incredibly generous support of our readers and listeners. In fact, if you want to be one of those supporting our efforts, please go to our Buy Me A Coffee site to become a member. The move has allowed a flexibility we didn’t have before, but I really want others to have the same sense of joy and accomplishment that I have as a member of our staff.
At one point we had nearly twice the staff that we do now, and as you know, many hands make light work. The opposite of that is also true. I genuinely believe that there must be others out there with the same passion for Orlando City as I have — with the same desire to have their voice heard, whether through the written word or on a podcast. I promise you there is an opportunity to contribute here with us. Our internal discussions are informative, engaging, and often funny. Please consider joining us, as I did eight years ago. I haven’t regretted it and I know you won’t either.
I want to thank all of those who contributed to The Mane Land over the years. There are many that I am still in touch with, though they are no longer a part of the staff. Of course, the current staff are a pleasure to work with, and I appreciate their dedication to what we are trying to do.
Finally, I want to thank the readers and listeners over the years. From those who regularly comment on our articles, to those that I’ve personally met at matches or even randomly on the street, you are a big reason that we do all of this. You are a big reason why I’ve been doing this for the better part of a decade. it is always a genuine pleasure hearing your thoughts or simply sharing a moment of joy together — U.S. Open Cup final, anyone?
So, thank you. I look forward to many more years of this journey together.
Orlando City
The Mane Land Announces Membership Program
Maximize your Mane Land experience with our new TML membership program while supporting our independent efforts.
Hello, readers of The Mane Land and listeners of our podcasts. Before you start reading this, please note that the most important part of this post is at the end. So, don’t stop until you get to the bottom.
You may recall that when we left SBNation to become independent, we really weren’t sure the best way to go about that. Many of our readers and listeners generously offered to help us make that transition, but we still weren’t sure the best path forward, so we took a poll.
The poll was pretty much split down the middle between those who preferred a one-time, Kickstarter-style campaign (which we did, and those of you who stepped up to help completely blew us away!) and those who favored a Patreon-style, subscription-based membership with extra perks. In fact, the member subscriptions option got a few more votes in our poll.
The folks who took part in our GoFundMe fundraiser were fantastic and are now immortalized on this very site on the “Our Founders” page. But we had always planned to give folks the option to choose whichever method of support they preferred and we tried to communicate that throughout the process. It took a little longer than expected to get up and running, but our membership subscription program is now in place! (You may notice the fancy new banner ad about it on the home page, echoed below.)
Part of that delay was thinking up something that didn’t encroach on the benefits we gave our Founders. Those folks helped us get started and deserve the exclusivity of the perks they got. The other part of the delay is that there just aren’t enough hours in the day. (However, for you guys, I’m willing to be cloned.)
We have utilized the popular Buy Me a Coffee platform to run this program. You can find the basics here. The Mane Land premium membership program includes three tiers of membership, as well as the option to click on the “Support” tab for those who just want to help us out whenever, without joining the program or adding any recurring “appointment-based” payments to their budgets. We love that feature of Buy Me a Coffee (or “Buy Us a Beer” in our case…you drink what you like).
For those who do choose to become members, we hope we have provided value and we are planning to add benefits along the way, in addition to providing special giveaways, events, etc. (more on that below). We have also provided subscription options — with monthly or annual memberships. The annual cost essentially gives you 12 months for the price of 10.
Current Benefits
The current membership benefits depend on which level of support you choose — Homegrown Player, TAM Player, or Designated Player level. Each level includes all benefits from the lower tiers, with additional benefits for each higher level.
Homegrown Player: This is a basic set-it-and-forget-it level of support for The Mane Land, providing a way for our readers and podcast listeners to contribute to the success of TML‘s independence goals. We want to compensate our current volunteers, replace lost income of those who previously received small stipends from being part of the SBNation network, add photographers, attract new writers, and expand our coverage. Additionally, each Homegrown Player Level member will be recognized in a Lion Links column, which is still typically our most widely read post of each day and one of the top daily links columns among soccer sites. Homegrown Player Level members will also be included in any future prize drawings we have or events we host and may be subject to future benefits as they are added.
TAM Player: In addition to Homegrown Player benefits, TAM Players will receive a new weekly e-newsletter in their inbox (unless you opt out…some people hate email). These will be informal missives from myself, other TML writers, or a combination, discussing what’s on our mind regarding Orlando City, the Pride, OCB, or soccer in general. Think of it as an extra post from our site that may cover multiple topics. Additionally, you’ll get a 10% discount from our web shop items that we control (presently, that means everything except our listed MLS Shop items). We will definitely have more benefits coming for this level soon and will look for opportunities to include additional benefits as they become available.
Designated Player: This limited availability level of support includes all perks from the Homegrown and TAM levels, but it goes beyond. Your discount at our webshop (for items we control) will be 15% off. Additionally, we’ll send you Zoom links to watch us “make the doughnuts” whenever we record the podcast. This includes when we interview guests. You’ll see how the sausage is made behind the scenes and everything that we say, some of which will end up on the cutting room floor before the final podcast is sent out. This includes both The Mane Land PawedCast and SkoPurp Soccer: An Orlando Pride PawedCast. And after two months of membership you can commission a bonus episode of either podcast simply by letting us know what topic you want us to cover. Think of this as an extended Ask Us Anything. We’ll do a whole show about your topic and you can even join us to discuss it if you wish.
The DP Level will certainly have additional benefits tacked on as we move forward. It is currently limited to 40 members but could be expanded slightly depending on demand and our Zoom attendance.
Future Benefits / Benefits Under Consideration
While we won’t be able to schedule these due to the random nature of items falling into our hands, there will be periodic prize giveaways in drawings that include all of our members, regardless of level. The catch is that you get one entry per level of support, meaning Homegrown Player Level members will get one entry per prize drawing, TAM Player Level members will get two entries per drawing, and Designated Player Level members get three entries for prize drawings. Some of the kinds of items we have come across in the past include match tickets, trinkets, posters, scarves, and so on.
We are planning to add a message board to our website, well…soon-ish is the word that comes to mind. The plan for the message board is to build our community and further the discussion about the club. As part of this, we’re planning an exclusive, members-only area of that message board that TAM and DP members can access. This will be a place our staff can share informational nuggets we can’t necessarily write stories about for various reasons and interact with our members on a daily basis.
Other things in the works include meet-and-greets/watch parties where you can chat with TML staff members and catch a road match with a bunch of like-minded Orlando City/Pride fans while we all cheer on the team together. There may also be other informal outings with one or more members of the staff, organized fantasy leagues, random Zoom calls for Q&A sessions, and perhaps even some organized group outings for Orlando City / Pride matches, national team games, etc.
The Most Important Part of This Post
Remember at the top of this post, when I said the most important part is at the bottom? Well, that seems like a long time ago, now, so it’s OK if you’ve already forgotten.
The most important part of our membership program is you. We want your feedback so we can make this program something that interests and excites you. We want to know what you like and dislike about this program. We want to know if there are some things we didn’t think of that interest you. If you like what we’re offering, tell us! If you hate what we’re offering, we want to know what you’d prefer instead or in addition. If you want to go drinking with Dave, we can probably arrange that, but it’ll be a unique tier and we’ll have to figure out the cost of that.
No idea is too crazy to suggest, even if it’s too insane for us to actually offer. Let us know what you want from your subscription and we’ll see if that’s something we can do. We’ll make it easy for you by putting the form right here below this post, which is now concluded.
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