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Orlando City

Orlando City at Columbus Crew: Player Grades and Man of the Match

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Man, this game was yellow — not just the Crew’s blinding kits, but the Lions picked up three yellow cards to Columbus’ one. This game was full of Orlando City turnovers, and Columbus corners. If I hadn’t seen it myself, it would be hard to believe that Orlando City won this match with all the turnovers, all the corners, and all the fouls. Yet, here we are with three road points and some confidence as the Lions return home to face Philadelphia on Wednesday. 

Starters

GK, Brian Rowe, 8 — It was a performance from Brian Rowe that had my non-believer husband saying, “I love Rowe! I didn’t think I did, but I do!” So there’s that, if it matters. He had 37 touches and ended the game with a clean sheet on the road. Plus, he made a spectacular save to deny a Goal of the Week from Robinho. What more could he need as a keeper?

D, Danilo Acosta, 7 — It must have been “defend with your face” night, as Acosta took a hard knock to the face or neck early in the second half after Robin Jansson took one in the first half. Acosta, who hasn’t seen very much game play for the Lions, sent crosses to nowhere, and was beaten out multiple times to the ball. We finally saw a nice defensive play out of Acosta in in the 86th minute and he won a free kick. I feel like I can’t be too hard on Acosta only having three clearances, when Lamine Sané and Jansson were out there racking up 26 collectively. He also got a secondary assist on Mueller’s goal, starting the play toward the net by driving inside and finding Nani.

D, Robin Jansson, 9 (co-MotM) — Jansson was just so, I don’t even know how to share how amazing he was to watch tonight! He took that free kick to the face and after a quick look, kept going. It seemed to be swelling as the game went on but that didn’t stop him at all. Not to mention that tackle that sprung the series leading Tesho to score in the 66th minute. He just kept heading crosses away for the rest of the match. Jansson saw 45 touches, 13 clearances, two tackles and three fouls.

D, Lamine Sané, 9 (co-MotM) — Sané has had a touch-and-go season in my opinion, but he was on fire tonight. We saw a nice clearance in the 11th minute when Columbus sent a free kick into the box. Then there was that beautiful moment in added time during the first half, when the ball fell perfectly for Columbus and Sané just got it out of there. He just continued to soar over everyone and clear the ball repeatedly. Thirteen was a lucky number for the defense tonight as Sané also recorded 13 clearances and an interception. Is this what a happy and healthy Lamine Sané means for Orlando’s back line?

D, Kyle Smith, 7.5 — We saw a nice play early in the match where Smith chipped a ball into the area for Mueller, but Columbus’ Jon Kempin was there to grab it. Smith took a yellow in minute 15 in exchange for shutting down what could have been a potentially dangerous turnover. He was aggressive and had two tackles, an interception, four clearances, and two fouls. A little bit of aggression is what I’ve been looking for in the Lions!

MF, Uri Rosell, 7.5 — Maybe you know this about me, maybe you don’t. I stan Uri Rosell. He’s not always flashy in the midfield, but he seems to be consistent and reliable. He ended the match with an 81% passing rate, an interception, five tackles, and match-high touches, with 64.

MF, Sacha Kljestan, 7.5 — Klejstian was awarded a yellow card in the 63rd minute as his attempt to break up play and win the ball back came in a bit heavy. His help clearing a free kick in the second half helped keep the clean sheet for Rowe. In a surprising turn of events, Sacha’s passing rate was at 90% this match, and he made three clearances defensively.

MF, Dillon Powers, 6.5 — It was a quiet night for Powers who has been receiving a lot of love from fans as of late. His 50 touches saw an 80% passing rate and he had two interceptions defensively. Not much else to add as Uri and Sascha seemed to hold down the midfield tonight.

F, Nani, 8 — Ah isn’t it fun to watch Nani when Nani’s on? From putting his moves on Pedro Santos in the 50th minute and stealing the ball then drawing a foul in the 57th, to the assist on that beautiful Tesho Akindele goal in the 66th. Excitement was high in our house when Nani was off on a breakaway and fired his chance right into Kempin’s chest later in the second half. Nani made four tackles and an interception as well as, two key passes (both assists), and one shot on target.

F, Tesho Akindele, 7 — His goal from distance in the second half was just what the Lions needed to help secure the 2-0 game, but of his 22 passes, only 11 connected. Aside from the offside call and his goal, Akindele was pretty quiet.

F, Chris Mueller, 7.5 — Mueller started off rough. In fact, I was ready to score him pretty low as he dribbled away opportunity after opportunity. Then, there it was, in the 41st minute, Chris Mueller put one in.

Substitutes

MF, Carlos Ascues (77’), 6 — Ascues was booked late in the game for holding up a restart. Other than that, he didn’t have much of an impact.

F, Benji Michel (65’), 6 — Michel came on for Mueller in the 65th minute, right before Tesho’s goal, but other than that he was pretty quiet as he collected his minutes and helped see out the match.

F, Santiago Patino (87’), 5.5 — Patino didn’t play much tonight, but his first bit of play saw him commit an unnecessary foul. So, I’m grading him anyway. Don’t @ me.


You read right, Mane Landers, that’s two Men of the Match winners from me tonight! That’s how I saw the game anyway. Agree or disagree? Let us know in the comments and don’t forget to vote your man of the match in the poll below!

Polling Closed

PlayerVotes
Lamine Sané and Robin Jansson 55
Chris Mueller6
Nani23
Tesho Akindele1
Just Lamine Sané5
Just Robin Jansson21
Other4

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Portland Timbers: Three Keys to Victory

If the Lions can check these three boxes, then they should be in a good position to win Saturday night.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Jeremy Reper

Coming off a midweek U.S. Open Cup match that I think we’d all rather not talk about too much, Orlando City will try to continue a good run of form in league play tomorrow when it faces the Portland Timbers at home. Both teams will be coming off a short week and need wins to keep pace at the top of crowded Eastern and Western conferences. What follows are three things I believe will go a long way towards helping OCSC pick up the win.

Balance the Lineup

Hindsight is of course 20/20, but playing a mostly first-choice lineup on Wednesday coming off short rest on Sunday after an emotional win hurt Orlando City dearly in the end. Nashville SC looked like the fresher team, and several Lions simply seemed to hit physical walls in the second half, which wasn’t surprising considering the amount of minutes that have piled up on their legs over the course of May. Playing a lineup of all the guys who started on Wednesday would be tantamount to suicide, but Oscar Pareja is going to need to strike the right balance between calling on his best XI and getting some fresh legs in. Alex Freeman, Martin Ojeda, Cesar Araujo, and Joran Gerbet could surely do with some rest, and the health of Eduard Atuesta will surely have a big impact on how the starting lineup looks Saturday night. Either way, Papi is going to need to a good job of walking the tightrope.

Focused for the Full 90

Two of the three goals that Nashville scored on Wednesday were in large part due to the Lions being far too lackadaisical in their defending. Whether it was switching off because they were expecting a whistle that never came, or simply allowing an opposition player to have far too much time and space on the ball, moments where OCSC let its collective focus slip came back to haunt the club in a big way. Like Nashville, Portland is a strong side that’s more than capable of punishing mistakes and lapses of concentration. Tired legs and a possible emotional hangover from the Inter Miami victory likely contributed to Orlando delivering an uncharacteristically unfocused performance, but if the Lions can put those issues in the past, it’ll go a long way towards picking up all three points.

Finish Your Chances

While Orlando has been in (mostly) strong form lately, a recurring theme has begun to emerge of the team not finishing some of the best chances that it creates. Andrew DeSalvo spoke about this at length in an excellent piece, and drew upon OCSC’s 3-0 victory over Miami as a prime example of the Lions leaving goals on the table. Yes, the team has still been getting results, but the margins are so small in the game of soccer that repeatedly spurning chances to score will come back to bite you sooner or later. Plus, there’s plenty of danger going into this game: the Lions will be on short rest, with extra tired legs, against one of the best teams in the west. Any and all high-quality chances that the good guys can carve out need to be finished emphatically, and if they are, then don’t be surprised if OCSC comes out with a win.


There you have it, people. If Orlando comes out with a balanced lineup, maintains razor-sharp focus for the entirety of the game, and is ruthless about finishing off great chances to score, then the Lions should be in a great position to get the win at home. All they need to do is go out and make it happen. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/23/25

Tonight’s OCB match moved to Sunday, Alex Freeman makes USMNT roster, FanDuel Sports Network will stream Orlando Pride games, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! A long weekend is ahead of us and there is plenty of Orlando soccer to enjoy as well. I’ll be celebrating my nephew’s first birthday this weekend, so it should be a nice next couple of days visiting family. Let’s dive right into today’s links from around the soccer world!

OCB Match Moved to Sunday in Kissimmee

As a heads up, Orlando City B is no longer playing today. OCB’s match against Atlanta United 2 was originally scheduled for tonight in Atlanta, but it was instead postponed to 7 p.m. Sunday and relocated to Osceola Heritage Park rather than Fifth Third Stadium in Georgia. Stadium availability was cited as the reason for the change, and the match will be played behind closed doors, although it will still be streamed live. The Young Lions are coming off of a 3-0 win over Inter Miami II and will face an Atlanta team that has drawn its last four games.

Alex Freeman Makes USMNT Training Camp Roster

Orlando City right back Alex Freeman was named to the United States Men’s National Team’s training camp roster ahead of friendlies next month against Turkey and Switzerland. The 20-year-old is one of five uncapped players on the roster and one of 16 MLS players. He’ll likely be behind Sergino Dest on the depth chart, but Joe Scally was not called up for this window. There are many notable players absent, opening the door for players like Freeman across multiple positions to stake their claim to participate in this summer’s Gold Cup and the World Cup next year.

FanDuel Sports Network Will Stream Select Pride Games

The Orlando Pride will have eight of its remaining games streamed on FanDuel Sports Network, including tonight’s road game against the Utah Royals. The regional network, which used to be called Bally Sports before rebranding, is available on various providers throughout Florida and there is an app for streaming as well. Personally, I find this as just another cog in a messy machine of NWSL coverage options, but I imagine this is handy for those out there who are already accustomed to using the network to watch other Floridian pro sports teams.

Winter Garden Lands USL League One Team

Another pro soccer team is coming to Central Florida, as the United Soccer League announced its intent to bring a USL League One team to the area. Central Florida Pro Soccer’s ownership group has plans for a development in Winter Garden that would include a 5,000-seat multi-purpose soccer stadium. The plans also include recreational fields, a hotel, parks, and a walking trail. The group will gather input from the community in the coming months to help determine the team’s colors, badge, and name.

Free Kicks

  • Kansas City Current defender Alana Cook was placed on the season-ending injury list due to a torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus sustained in the club’s match against the Orlando Pride.
  • NJ/NY Gotham FC and Tigres will square off in the Concacaf W Champions Cup final on Saturday. The winner will earn a spot in the 2026 Women’s Champions Cup and the 2028 Women’s Club World Cup.
  • Luka Modric penned a farewell to Real Madrid fans as his time with the club has come to an end. I don’t know where his next stop will be, but I sure hope it’s not with a team the Lions still have to face this year.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your holiday weekend!

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Orlando City

Converting More Big Chances Could Propel Orlando City’s Season Into An Epic Universe

An analysis of Orlando City’s conversion rate on big chances and an evaluation of the impact of a small improvement .

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

If you could all hop in the Wayback Machine with me, I would like to take you all the way back to Sunday, May 18, 2025. It was a glorious day, punctuated by a 3-0 victory over Orlando City’s southern rivals Inter Miami. The Five Takeaways article about that game was pretty awesome too, and in that article, the dashingly handsome and spellbindingly brilliant author noted that Orlando City “could, and probably should, have scored five or even six goals” against Miami.

You probably surmised that the author of that Five Takeaways article was me, and I appreciate your immediate recognition of my handsomeness and brilliance. I am also pretty confident that you believe that Orlando City should have scored more than three goals as well, and I am here to tell you that the eye test and the tracking data agree. The wonderful site fotmob.com tracks a statistic coded by analysts from Opta called “big chances,” which they define on their frequently asked questions page as:

A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.

The key words in their definition are “reasonably be expected,” and so, while the word ‘expected’ is in this definition, do not confuse “reasonably be expected” with “expected goals” (xG). I think of expected goals more like a geography problem, kind of like the game show Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego? Was that an excuse just to mention that one of my best friends was a contestant on that show in 1994 and won a trip to Orlando? A gentleman never tells.

Back to the geography problem, expected goals is really just a mapping exercise, mapping conversion percentages to locations all over a soccer field and then summing up all the shots taken from those locations in a game. By that measure, fbref.com had Orlando City with an xG of 2.9 against Miami, extremely close to the actual output of three goals. Earlier in the season, however, the xG tracking was 1.6 against Toronto…but the Lions scored four goals.

There are countless examples of the real results not matching the xG. While I value xG and just finished reading a great book called How To Win The Premier League: The Inside Story of Football (soccer)’s Data Revolution, which details the history of expected goals and how the author — the former director of research at Liverpool — helped build the first analytics department at a Premier League club using xG as a foundational measurement tool, I still think xG needs to be used alongside other measures and cannot stand alone by itself.

One of the main reasons I think it needs to be combined with other data is that xG requires a shot to be taken, and sometimes that does not happen. Consider Orlando City’s third goal against Miami, if Duncan McGuire’s cross had gone untouched then the xG on that play would have gone from 0.56 to 0.0, because without a shot attempt there is no shot location, and no map coordinates to use to find the xG for that area of the field.

This takes us back to that definition of big chances, which notably does not include a requirement for a shot to be taken. Duncan McGuire’s pass clearly created a chance to score, and that pass, combined with the perfectly timed run from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, meant that Orlando City had a great opportunity to score from a location where anyone with eyes would think that “a player should reasonably be expected to score.” If Thórhallsson had whiffed, then the xG would have said no sir, you get 0.0 xG, even though everyone who watched that pass would have said, “Oh my, he should have scored that, what a big chance missed.”

Note: Thórhallsson did not miss, and it was glorious.

According to Opta’s tracking, Orlando City had eight big chances in the game against Miami. Which sounds closer to your memory of that match: Orlando City’s xG was 2.9 or Orlando City created eight big chances to score? I think most people probably think of the latter and remember the breakaways and the close-range opportunities and how it seemed like Orlando City had so many clear chances to score.

Looking at the 2025 season to date, the Lions are tied for the MLS lead with 50 big chances thus far, and just as against Miami, you can see that their conversion rate on those big chances has not been great:

ClubBig ChancesBig Chances ConvertedConversion Rate
San Jose502040%
Orlando City501428%
Chicago461839%
Columbus461430%
Nashville411229%
Vancouver402153%
LAFC391436%
Miami392051%
Minnesota391436%
Portland371643%
MLS Average*3412.437%
  • *The MLS Average is the average of every team except Orlando City

If you were wondering, yes, 28% is among the league’s worst conversion rates on big chances. It is tied for second worst, ahead of only Austin, which must be driving its fans up the wall with a 19% conversion rate on 31 big chances. Maybe the release of Wicked at the end of 2024 put the kibosh on good things happening to those in green for a while. Vancouver, on the other hand, is out there Burning Blue like Mariah the Scientist (contemporary pop song alert), converting a league-leading 53% of its big chances.

For Orlando City, however, 28% feels right. It feels terrible, but it also feels right. How many times did it seem like it would be harder not to score than to score, but then the Lions went ahead and did not score? Luis Muriel leads the team with 12 big chances missed (second most in MLS), and while it takes an extreme amount of skill and work to get into position to miss chances, the reality is that 12 times independent analysts thought Muriel should reasonably have been expected to score and he did not.

Anytime there is a lower-than-average performance there is always a question of whether that performance is reality or if there is a regression to the mean coming. In this case, regression to the mean would actually be positive, or something more akin to ascension to the mean. If Orlando City performs at a conversion rate similar to that of the rest of the league, the Lions will score about one additional goal per every 10 big chances, or an additional five goals over their next 50 big chances generated.

Considering that the Lions generated those 50 big chances in 14 games, it is easy math to double that and put Orlando City at 100 big chances after 28 games at the current pace. That extra five goals, were it to happen and the team continued to similarly convert its “small chances,” would net the team 32 goals in the next 14 games, and take the team to 59 after 28 games, with six more games still to play in the season.

Readers of UpRoar, the weekly newsletter for The Mane Land’s Buy Me a Coffee subscribers, which you can subscribe to by clicking this link, will know that Orlando City’s offense is already on pace to break the club’s MLS goal-scoring record, which is…wait for it…59 goals, and so, if the Lions could start converting more of their big chances, then the 2025 team could not only break that record but smash it — like, epically smash it like the Super Smash Brothers.

And speaking of…what better way to celebrate today’s official opening of Epic Universe but to imagine Óscar Pareja and the coaching staff out there training their goal-scoring dragons and super Marco and Luis-gi to tame the dark world of opposition defenses with their Harry Potter-esque offensive wizardry?

That would be epic, and if you are asking me what the coaching staff should do, that is what I pick.

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