Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Philadelphia Union: Player Grades and Man of the Match
James O’Connor made three changes to his lineup as he regained the services of midfielders Will Johnson and Sebas Méndez from international duty while Ruan also returned after being rested for Saturday’s visit to Columbus.
Having started brightly and looking in complete control, the momentum shifted on two key moments in favor of Philadelphia, which currently sits atop the Eastern conference. First, by scoring an equalizer and then seeing Orlando’s first red card, the Union wrestled the game back in their favor going into the break and landed another blow to Orlando in the opening few minutes of the second half before a few Lions truly hit self-destruct. Not everyone did poorly as some went down with the sinking ship with dignity and the grades reflect that:
Starters
GK, Brian Rowe, 6.5 – Rowe was forced into his first save in the 12th minute, diving low to his right to deny a long range Kacper Przybyłko effort destined for the bottom corner. He’d be forgiven for thinking he was in for a quiet day after the first half hour but that all changed. He ended up making five saves in total but couldn’t do anything about the first goal as Przybyłko had the entire goal at his mercy and from there things snowballed. He was equally as helpless for the other two Union goals, I wouldn’t expected any goalkeeper in MLS to stop those, and despite coming up big for a spectacular double save, it ultimately didn’t matter as the game had long slipped out of the Lions’ grasp. A commanding day aerially and some good distribution (84.6% accuracy, fifth best) are relatively moot points on a night like tonight.
D, Danilo Acosta, 4 – With João Moutinho’s injury persisting for now, Acosta got another chance to stake his claim for the starting role following his return from an anonymous Gold Cup jaunt with Honduras, for which he still hasn’t been cap-tied but he likely damaged his chances. A bright start offensively with some neat interplay with Nani soon gave way to slack defending. It finally cost Orlando when Acosta was caught out on the long ball that Alejandro Bedoya was able to turn back infield for the assist on the second goal and after the third goal went in, I seemed to notice Acosta immediately turn inwards towards Miller, shouting and throwing his arms up in frustration. Not a good look from a player a long way from a good performance himself and I’m not sure O’Connor is the type of person that takes kindly to such blame culture. Two tackles, three clearances and the second-worst pass completion percentage on the team.
D, Robin Jansson, 3.5 – Jansson was having a pretty sturdy outing for the first half hour, reading play and cutting out passes as Orlando was able to defend as a unit, but a turnover left the defense vulnerable on the counter, and the Swede got sucked to the ball and left Przybyłko unmarked for the goal. His late attempt at stepping up didn’t dissuade him from a valiant last ditch slide but it did little to salvage the situation. He then got caught as the last man against Fafà Picault on another break close to halftime that ultimately spelled the end of his day — Jansson lost his composure, recklessly left the ground and wildly swung his legs through the back of Picault. Chris Penso surprisingly only showed yellow before VAR rightfully asked him to revisit the decision. Prior to his dismissal, Jansson had actually completely all 16 of his pass attempts and made a joint-high five clearances.
D, Lamine Sané, 5 – Similar to Jansson, Sané made a couple of good tackles prior to the goal but failed in his first one-on-one scenario, not doing enough to close down Jamiro Monteiro, who was easily able to feed Przybyłko for the Union’s equalizer. With 11 defensive actions (two tackles, three interceptions, five clearances and one blocked shot) he had a significantly busier game than usual and actually did pretty well, remaining pretty tight despite the numerical disadvantage and introduction of Kamal Miller. Still, I really don’t trust his ability to win individual battles and it really heaped the pressure on Jansson both for the Union’s first goal and then his red card.
D, Ruan, 4 – Ruan continually tested Kai Wagner and Brenden Aaronson out for pace on the Philadelphia left and saw some mild success but for all the good will he has built up during his time in purple, his attacking output has dried up and it’s no longer covering his defensive frailties. He registered absolutely no defensive actions whatsoever in a game that left the Lions defending for their lives at times. One shot and an 80.6% accuracy on 36 passes, the fifth most, is all he really has to show on his return to the side. He did rank first in one category though, losing possession a team-leading six times.
MF, Sacha Kljestan, 3 – Gone are the days of Kljestan as an assist-hungry attacking midfielder. He has adopted a more central and deeper role in the current O’Connor system with a lot of defensive responsibility, serving as a box-to-box on the break. He had a good passing game, completing the fourth most at 81.4% but his lack of pace showed at times and as the game slipped away, Orlando began chasing shadows in midfield. That made Kljestan frustrated and you won’t like Kljestan when he’s frustrated. It ultimately ended in Jansson being left to hold Kljestan’s beer as the 33-year-old went lunging in on Monteiro for what was frankly a horrendous challenge. Red card, maybe an additional game ban. It was that bad.
MF, Sebas Méndez, 5.5 – Méndez was the deepest-lying midfielder as he once again assumed the role of quarterback on his return, sitting in between Jansson and Sané in possession to help dictate play. He led the team in passes with 64, which is comparatively low to some of his other games this season but did make 93.8% including five long balls. Like the vast majority of the team, he was left high and dry by the sending offs and was a passenger once OCSC was reduced to nine.
MF, Will Johnson, 7 (MOTM) – Will Johnson had the game that Kljestan woke up this morning hoping to have. They played the same role on either side of a midfield tandem with Méndez sitting behind them. He covered every blade of grass and was the last man left running out there as he commendably channeled his frustration into work rate, not recklessness. Not only did he pass the eye test but he also bossed the stats sheet, leading the team in both tackles, with four, as well as key passes, with two, while his 98.2% pass accuracy was second only behind Jansson’s 100% on a much lower 16 attempts, compared to the Canadian’s 55, also good enough for second.
F, Nani, 4 – After what Orlando City analyst Miguel Gallardo called Nani’s most complete performance in purple against Columbus on Saturday, Nani only got 45 minutes as departed at halftime to make room for a defender following Jansson’s sending off. It was a forgettable half that the Portuguese was pretty anonymous in, flattering to deceive in transition. His 73.1% pass accuracy was the lowest of every Lion, starters and subs, and he only registered one shot that was off target. Considering the high standards the All-Star has set himself, it was a disappointing evening for the DP.
F, Tesho Akindele, 5.5 – Akindele was Orlando’s primary outlet when the Lions regained possession and showed some good hold-up play. However, he was caught out for the Union equalizer, getting dispossessed on what he thought should have been a foul and was the second-most dispossessed player behind Ruan. He was the only Orlando player to successfully complete more than one dribble and made 31 passes (83.9%) but he was another the game just got away from.
F, Chris Mueller, 7 – A storming solo run carved open the Union defense in the eighth minute, leaving Mueller ample time to pick his spot past rookie goalkeeper Matt Freese, taking the second-year forward’s personal total to five for the season. That set the tone as he was a nuisance for the hour he played before being subbed off. Closing down from the front, sniffing out loose passes, drawing fouls, running at defenders, and that’s not to mention his defensive hustle. A solid outing for Cash, who the Union will not be looking forward to matching up against again at the weekend.
Substitutes
CB, Kamal Miller (46’), 4 – In all honesty, rookie Kamal Miller was shockingly bad but he does have my sympathies, subbing on at halftime to cover for Jansson. But he didn’t get a second to adjust back to life in the Orlando back line following his return from national team duty as the Union scored inside two minutes, with Miller giving everyone a lesson in how not to defend, meekly turning his back on the shot. His efforts for Philadelphia’s third were even less impressive, getting caught in two minds whether to close down, which he began to do then stopped, or track the run of Picault, which he probably realized he should’ve done just as Picault was shooting. There’s a strong argument that the youngster was less useful in the second half than the departed Jansson was sat back in the locker room, although he earned some points back for a last ditch block on Marco Fabián in garbage time.
CB, Shane O’Neill (61’), 4.5 – In all honesty, I’m reading Shane O’Neill’s name on my notes and I’m struggling to remember if he actually came on or he’s still on the sideline waiting to enter the game. He managed one more touch than an isolated Dom Dwyer who subbed on at the same time as him although he did manage one tackle so I guess that automatically elevates him above Ruan and Miller at least. Not a healthy situation to sub into that soon got worse. It’s confusing to know how defending for half an hour with nine men your central defender can go so unnoticed but I guess that’s just a wider metaphor for O’Neill in general. Not actively messing up counts for something, right?
FW, Dom Dwyer (61’), 6 – Playing his first minutes since May 19, Dwyer struggled to get into the game. He did attempt a spectacular bicycle kick off a corner in the 84th minute but playing with two fewer players, he was never going to get much of a look at goal as Orlando struggled to retain any purposeful possession. He managed to spring Akindele after a neat turn before Penso brought it back for a foul in stoppage time but nothing came of it. In difficult circumstances, you can at least take heart that he looked sharp in the few moments he did actually touch the ball. He gets the benefit of the doubt purely as the life of striker is already quiet enough when you have the correct number of players on your team.
Agree with the grades? Have your own pick for Man of the Match? Vote on the poll and let us know in the comments!
Polling Closed
Player | Votes |
Brian Rowe | 2 |
Will Johnson | 27 |
Chris Mueller | 31 |
Lamine Sané | 2 |
Other (comment below) | 3 |
Opinion
The Case for Starting Luis Muriel Against Atlanta
Muriel’s game is tailor made to help Orlando get the result in what will likely be a tight contest.
For the second season in a row, Orlando City finds itself hosting a match in the Eastern Conference semifinals. It was a scenario that was far less likely this year, with the Lions watching as all three seeds above them crashed out in the first round, leaving OCSC as the highest-seeded team still standing in the East. Last year’s semifinal match didn’t go so well, with 10-man Orlando falling to the eventual champion Columbus Crew in extra time. So, how do the Lions avoid that fate this year and advance to the Eastern Conference final for the first time?
For starters, they can succeed on each of Dave Rohe’s three keys to victory! I’d like to make an addition though, and campaign for Oscar Pareja to start Luis Muriel instead of Ivan Angulo. To be clear, it’s not that I have an axe to grind against Angulo, as he’s largely ranged from solid to good when starting out on the left wing. For my money though, this match is tailor made for Muriel and giving him the start could help Orlando get through to the next round without needing to resort to extra time or penalties.
It’s not unreasonable to expect Sunday’s game to play out in a similar manner to Orlando’s 2-1 Decision Day loss to Atlanta, in which the visitors had 34% of the ball to OCSC’s 66%. True, part of that disparity was down to Atlanta’s 2-0 lead after 16 minutes, which allowed the visitors to sit back, bunker, and protect what they had. Even if the game had remained scoreless for longer though, Atlanta probably would likely have ceded possession anyway and looked to play defensively and hit on the counter. They rolled out a compact 4-2-3-1 in that game, but deployed a 3-5-2 in their last two games against Miami, and they might do so again after its effectiveness.
With Orlando likely to have the lion’s share (hehe) of the ball, and Atlanta sitting deep, there figures to be less room for Angulo to deploy his electric pace. OCSC will probably need to make things happen in the “half-court,” with an emphasis on moving the ball quickly, making clever runs, and finding those runs with creative and accurate passes.
Enter Luis Muriel. The Colombian Designated Player had a slow start to life with Orlando City but has come on strong in recent months, excelling in a super sub role and frequently making an impact in games off the bench. In 56 minutes against Charlotte in Game 3, he completed two dribbles, played one key pass and one through ball, and took three shots, with one on target, one off target, and one blocked. He doesn’t offer Angulo’s speed, but he has maybe the best vision and range of passing of anyone on the team, he’s an outstanding dribbler, and he’s a calm and capable finisher.
He hasn’t been asked to do a ton of traditional striker work during his resurgence, but Muriel has excelled at setting up teammates and creating chances, as evidenced by the litany of key passes littering his stat sheet. Those attributes could be hugely important in breaking Atlanta down, and with two key passes and two completed dribbles against them in just 22 minutes on Decision Day, he’s already proven he can be effective against the Five Stripes.
Another thing that could help the Lions in starting Muriel, is that it would almost certainly take Atlanta by surprise. Oscar Pareja isn’t exactly known for tweaking his lineup on a game-to-game basis, vastly preferring to find an XI that works and stick with it religiously. As long as everyone’s healthy, that lineup has featured Angulo starting with Muriel coming off the bench, and flipping the script would certainly be an unexpected variation that Atlanta might not be expecting. At this level, teams are good enough to adjust on short notice, but you also take every possible edge that you can find, and a lineup shift could be exactly that.
In short, as much as I like Angulo, I think Muriel should get the call in his place on Sunday. The veteran’s combination of vision, passing ability, and dribbling makes him uniquely suited to help unlock defenses, which will be crucial in a game where Orlando City is likely to dominate possession. I don’t think it’s likely to happen given Papi’s consistency with his lineups, but the unexpected move could give the Lions the edge they’re looking for. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/22/24
Emily Sams wins Defender of the Year, Orlando City’s turnaround, Barbra Banda nominated for African Woman Player of the Year, and more.
Happy Friday! Beyond working and catching some soccer here and there, I don’t have many plans for the weekend. I’m also hoping to find some time to trial some cranberry and brie bites I’m trying to perfect before Thanksgiving next week. For now though, let’s jump right into today’s links from around the soccer world!
Emily Sams Awarded NWSL Defender of the Year
The Orlando Pride’s Emily Sams was named 2024 NWSL Defender of the Year after a fantastic season. The Pride only conceded 20 goals in a record-breaking season, and Sams played in all 13 of the team’s shutouts. Sams was one of the most impactful players for the Pride this year and had 163 recoveries, 76 clearances, and 16 blocks. She’s the first Pride player to win the award and it’s great to see her receive some deserved recognition in her second year in Orlando.
Analyzing Orlando City’s Revitalization
It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for the Lions to say the least. There were serious concerns over whether or not the Lions would even make the playoffs back in June and now they find themselves as the highest remaining seed in the Eastern Conference this postseason. Facundo Torres’ excellent run of play is a major reason behind the club’s turnaround, but the buy-in from all of Orlando’s attackers has helped create a dynamic and unselfish offense. Although expectations are rising once more for the Lions, Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi spoke on how the team is focused on Sunday’s playoff match.
“There’s only one team that matters: Atlanta United,” Muzzi said. “The easiest way to lose a game is to look ahead. I’ll say we didn’t expect to be playing at home, but it’s welcomed. We’re focused on Atlanta, they’re playing great. They have a lot of confidence and momentum. It doesn’t matter they’re the No. 9 seed because they’re not playing like the No. 9 seed.”
Barbra Banda Up For African Woman Player of the Year
Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda was one of 10 players nominated for this year’s African Woman Player of the Year award. The 24-year-old has done well for both club and country this year. She scored 13 goals in her first regular season with the Pride and has three goals so far in the playoffs. Banda also had a hat trick for Zambia in the Summer Olympics. She’s joined by fellow NWSL players Temwa Chawinga and Racheal Kundananji on the list of nominees. Bay FC striker Asisat Oshoala, who has won the award in five of the past six years, was not nominated for the first time in a decade. The nomination list will be trimmed to a three-player shortlist before the winner is announced on Dec. 16 in Morocco.
Croix Bethune Named NWSL Midfielder of the Year
Washington Spirit rookie Croix Bethune won NWSL Midfielder of the Year after recording 10 assists and five goals in 17 matches this season. A knee injury cut her season short in September, but she still tied Tobin Heath’s record for the most assists in a season. Bethune gave plenty of NWSL teams headaches this year and also won Rookie of the Year earlier this week. She’s the first player to ever receive NWSL Midfielder of the Year and she beat out the Pride’s Marta, the North Carolina Courage’s Ashley Sanchez, and Kansas City Current duo Lo’eau LaBonta and Vanessa DiBernardo.
Eastern Conference Clubs Making Moves
FC Cincinnati officially signed striker Kevin Denkey from Cercle Brugge on a deal that will last through 2028. The 23-year-old joins as a Designated Player on a reported $16.2 million transfer, which would be a league record. He won the Golden Boot in Belgium last year after scoring 27 goals and should give Cincinnati some considerable firepower next year.
Elsewhere in the league, CF Montreal declined the option on Josef Martinez’s contract, meaning the Venezuelan forward will be a free agent once again. The 31-year-old led Montreal with 11 goals this season and we’ll see where he winds up next. Charlotte FC did not trigger the purchase option on Pep Biel’s loan, opening up a Designated Player spot. Former Lion Junior Urso’s contract option was also declined by Charlotte. The Philadelphia Union signed defender Olivier Mbaizo to a contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2026, with options for 2027 and 2028 as well.
Free Kicks
- In preparation for the 2026 World Cup, FIFA named 26 new options across the country as “base camps” for participating teams to train and rest. Orlando was included, with OCSC’s training grounds at Osceola Heritage Park pitched alongside the Lake Nona Wave Hotel.
- ESPN‘s Jeff Kassouf dove into how the NWSL stacks up to the biggest sports leagues in the U.S. Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Pride and Spirit should showcase just how entertaining the league is to plenty of viewers.
- Pep Guardiola will stick around as Manchester City’s manager for a couple more years after signing a two-year contract extension with the club. His contract was set to expire at the end of this season.
- Here’s a cool breakdown of the seven amateur teams that have qualified for the 2025 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup so far. None are from Florida, but there are some great logos to check out if you’re looking for a team to root for in the early rounds next year. Debutants Southern Indiana FC and the Virginia Dream are my personal favorites of the bunch.
- The draw for the 2025 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations will take place today. Zambia is in the second pot, meaning it will be put in a group of four that will include one of Nigeria, South Africa, or Morocco. The tournament itself will be in July of next year.
- Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City all clinched a spot in the Women’s Champions League quarterfinals with two games still left to play.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend. Go Orlando!
Orlando City
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.
The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.
Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.
Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:
I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.
Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):
Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.
Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.
That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:
It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.
If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.
While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.
I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.
Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!
Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.
Vamos Orlando!
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