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Orlando City: Contender or Pretender?

Orlando City’s results against teams in the top, middle, and bottom third of the standings and what it means.

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Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

The dictionary definition of a mirage involves physics and how light bends as it travels through different air temperatures. I think exactly zero of you opened this article to read about science, so we can quickly move from the physics definition to the more generally used definition of mirage, which is that people think they see something, but what they see is not real.

Orlando City has played 20 real games of MLS soccer this season and currently sits fifth in the Eastern Conference and has the ninth best points earned per game rating in the entire league, but do those rankings reflect (see what I did there?) reality, and are the Lions one of the league’s best teams? Let’s take a look.

Orlando City is three games into the second half of the season — 59% of the way through the full season to be more precise — and at this point, there are still some scheduling quirks, but for the most part teams have played enough games that we can look at the results and not worry about a small sample size. The table below shows how the Lions performed at home and on the road as well as how they fared in games against teams in the top third, middle third, and bottom third of the overall league rankings for points earned per game. You read each cell in the table as two different values, the first being the number of games played and the number after the slash is the average points earned per game.

OpponentsAt HomeOn the RoadOverall
Games Against Top Third3 / 1.002 / 2.005 / 1.40
Games Against Middle Third4 / 1.254 / 1.258 / 1.25
Games Against Bottom Third3 / 3.004 / 1.757 / 2.29
Overall10 / 1.7010 / 1.6020 / 1.65
  • Top Third = Cin (H), Mia (A), Phi (A&H) Port (H)
  • Middle Third = Char (H), Chi (A&H), Col (A), NE (H), NYC (A), NYRB (A&H)
  • Bottom Third = Atl (A&H), D.C. (H), LA Gal (A), Mon (A), STL (A), Tor (H)

The schedule makers were fair to Orlando City, giving the team an even 10 home games and 10 away matches among their first 20 outings, and at the macro level the Lions were consistent, earning nearly the same points per game at home as they did on the road. Looking at the different segments, however, it is clear that Orlando beats up on the teams in the bottom third and then has mixed results against the teams ranked in the top and middle thirds.

This brings the mirage question back up, as teams in the bottom third will not qualify for the playoffs, and in games against the top two-thirds (the top 20 teams) in the league, Orlando City is 4-5-4, meaning the Lions earn points in most matches, but they are just as likely to win as they are to lose.

Looking at a performance table for the league’s top 10 teams, however, lends credence to the idea that that those might be real lions you see on the field when watching Orlando City. This table shows the average points earned per match by the top teams, and Orlando City is not alone among the top teams in how they earn their points.

Teamvs. Top Thirdvs. Middle Thirdvs. Bottom ThirdOverall
Philadelphia1.132.252.752.00
Vancouver1.402.002.432.00
Cincinnati1.752.141.891.95
San Diego2.331.502.221.95
Nashville1.751.702.331.90
Columbus1.252.172.331.85
Miami1.671.802.001.81
Minnesota1.002.001.781.70
Orlando City1.401.252.291.65
Portland0.001.632.131.58

I did not list out the performances of all 30 teams, but Orlando City’s 1.40 points earned per game against teams in the top third of MLS is tied for the sixth best in the entire league. The Lions struggle against the middle of the pack, ranking 18th, and then are elite again when it comes to playing the bottom teams (seventh).

Only two teams in the league are in the top 10 against teams in all three categories: Vancouver (sixth, fourth, third) and Columbus (ninth, second, fourth). Portland is the only team in MLS that has earned zero points against teams in the top third, but because the Timbers have only played three opponents in that category and because they have done well against the teams in the bottom 20, they are 10th overall in the league.

That’s enough talk about other teams for now, but it is important to note that the number of games against teams in each category weighs heavily on the overall ranking. Orlando City has had a varied schedule, but there are teams that have played as few as three games against top 10 teams and others who have played as many as nine. Teams have no control over their schedule, and since MLS has an unbalanced schedule every year, some teams get lucky or unlucky with their cross-conference games.

Orlando City has 14 games remaining, and while it has had a pretty varied schedule so far in terms of opponents, the club’s final 14 games are backloaded with teams currently in the top 10. This is not ideal, but it is how it is, and Óscar Pareja’s teams have been excellent closers in recent years, so if the Lions can do that again, they have a great chance to make some leaps up the table as half of their final 14 games are against teams above them in the overall standings.

Teamvs. Top Thirdvs. Middle Thirdvs. Bottom ThirdOverall
Philadelphia37414
Vancouver44715
Cincinnati74314
San Diego54514
Nashville81514
Columbus46414
Miami57618
Minnesota36514
Orlando City73414
Portland64515
  • Top Third = Cin (A), Col (A&H), Mia (H), Nash (A&H), Van (H)
  • Middle Third = Cha (A), NE (A), NYC (H)
  • Bottom Third = D.C. (A), KC (H), Mon (H), Tor(A)

If Orlando City does not close well, however, the Lions could find themselves dropping rapidly down the table due to 10 of their final 14 games being against teams in the top 20. The draws against a weak CF Montréal team, a Chicago Fire team that played down a player for nearly 55 minutes, and a New England team that was beaten before Robin Jansson gave away a needless penalty kick in the final minutes will loom large no matter how the season ends up, but considering Orlando City was the better team or a man up in all three of those games and none of those teams is a top 10 team, those will be six huge dropped points in the final standings.

Playing the woulda/coulda/shoulda/didn’t game accomplishes nothing, but those extra six points would have the Lions tied with Cincinnati (which they also could have beaten or at least tied!) as the third-best team in the league in points earned per game, and that would just be from beating teams much lower in the overall standings.

Ugh.

So, where did we end up? Orlando City is a top 10 team in points per game and in points per game against top 10 teams, and our eye test (important in an evaluation of whether something is or is not a mirage) says that it probably should have earned more points than it did. The glass-half-empty side of “the Lions should have earned more points than they did,” however, is that multiple times they were unable to earn points that were there for the taking, and that is generally not a sign of a championship-caliber team.

With a backloaded schedule that is one of the more difficult ones in the league (only Nashville has more games left against teams in the top 10, and two of those are against Orlando City), the Lions will need to be ruthless and not play with their food when they have chances to eat during the final months. I am far more optimistic than pessimistic, both in general and also when looking at the 2025 Orlando City team, and I think the team will finish strong and be a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

The 2024 team finished the season at 1.52 points earned per game, 8% lower than this year’s team’s current average of 1.65, and that team went all the way to the conference final. I believe this team is better than last year’s team, not just from those points earned per game, but also because of the talent of the players on the field, and that as Pareja’s teams often do, they will find their ideal lineup and get on a roll to end the season.

At least that is what I think I see out in front of us.

Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links

Lion Links: 7/13/26

Pride and OCB win, Maxime Crepeau to compete in MLS All-Star Skills Challenge, Latest MLS transfer roundup, and more.

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Image of Marta blasting a goal from long range against Kansas City.
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Mark Thor

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida. I’ve been very busy at work, but I look forward to watching the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals and final this week. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Pride Shut Out Kansas City Current at Home

The Orlando Pride defeated the Kansas City Current 3-0 at Inter&Co Stadium Friday night, bouncing back from a tough outing at Angel City the previous week. After a scoreless first half, Marta scored the opener from long distance to give Orlando the lead. Hannah Anderson and Barbra Banda added a goal apiece as the Pride have won three out of their last four league matches. Goalkeeper Anna Moorhouse earned a clean sheet in her 100th appearance for the club. Orlando remains eighth in the NWSL table with 20 points. The Pride will be back in action at home Wednesday, taking on Boston Legacy at Inter&Co Stadium.

OCB Wins at FC Cincinnati 2

Orlando City B beat FC Cincinnati 2 by a 2-1 scoreline at NKU Soccer Stadium in Highland Heights, KY on Sunday. Issah Haruna’s goal gave the Young Lions the lead in the first half. In the second half, Cincinnati leveled the match, but Matthew Belgodere scored the winner on the road. That result pulls the Young Lions into third in the MLS NEXT Pro Eastern Conference standings with 33 points, just one point off leaders Chattanooga FC. OCB will be away for another road test Saturday against Chattanooga FC at Finley Stadium.

Orlando City Reportedly Submits Transfer Offer for Alex Moreno

Orlando City has reportedly submitted a transfer offer to sign Girona defender Alex Moreno. No agreement has been reached between the two sides, and conversations remain ongoing, according to reports. Moreno made 31 appearances for Girona last season in La Liga and recorded three assists. The 33-year-old left back remains under contract with Girona through 2027, but the club was relegated from La Liga to La Liga 2 last season. Several European clubs have also expressed interest in signing Moreno, including La Liga sides Real Betis and Rayo Vallecano.

Crepeau to Compete in MLS All-Star Skills Challenge

Orlando City goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau will compete in the 2026 MLS All-Star Skills Challenge at Truist Field in Charlotte on July 28, the club announced Friday. The competition will feature top players from Major League Soccer and Liga MX competing to test their soccer skills on the pitch. Five skills challenge competitions are featured, including the All-Star Goalie Wars, All-Star Crossbar Challenge, and the MLS vs. Liga MX Relay Challenge. Each competition will crown its own champion this year, switching from the traditional MLS-versus-opponent format used in previous years.

Latest MLS Transfer Roundup

According to Tom Bogert of The Athletic, Sporting Kansas City has emerged as a potential option to sign former Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah.

🚨🇪🇬 Sources: Sporting KC has emerged as top MLS suitor for Liverpool legend Mo Salah.Still a longshot of course, as sources believe he prefers Europe + Saudi very interested, but SKC the top MLS option now.More here with @paultenorio.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/athletic/743…

Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2026-07-10T19:35:14.046Z

D.C. United has reportedly acquired forward Nathan Ordaz from LAFC.

🇸🇻 BREAKING: D.C. United to acquire El Salvador international forward Nathan Ordaz from LAFC, per sources.Ordaz, 22, is a product of LAFC's academy. Made 98 first team apps. 9g/4a in 2,163 mins over last two years.Gets chance to earn more mins at D.C.

Tom Bogert (@tombogert.bsky.social) 2026-07-12T13:55:49.973Z

Meanwhile, the Seattle Sounders have reportedly traded defender Cody Baker to the New England Revolution.

Free Kicks

  • Former Lion Silvester van der Water has signed with Cambodian Premier League side Preah Khan Reach Svay Rieng FC.
  • Ted Lasso actor Cristo Fernandez, who plays Dani Rojas in the show, made his professional debut for USL Championship side El Paso Locomotive over the weekend.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

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Orlando City Trades Duncan McGuire to Houston Dynamo

The Lions send the 2023 first-round pick to Houston for a pile of Garberbucks.

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Image of Duncan McGuire playing the ball against New York City FC.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando no longer runs on Duncan as Orlando City has traded 2023 first-round draft pick Duncan McGuire to the Houston Dynamo. The big striker with the even bigger smile and the back flips joins the Dynamo, with the Lions receiving $600,000 in 2026 General Allocation Money (GAM), $400,000 in 2027 GAM, and $250,000 in 2027-2028 GAM. The return could also include up to $1.15 million in GAM add-ons if certain performance metrics are met. OCSC will retain a percentage of any sell-on by Houston.

It became clear that something was up with McGuire, as he did not dress for Orlando City’s friendly against Tampa Bay on Wednesday.

“Duncan has meant a great deal to this club since the day he arrived in Orlando,” Orlando City General Manager and Sporting Director Ricardo Moreira said in a club press release. “His resilience, determination, and willingness to fight through challenges both on and off the field have earned the respect of everyone throughout our organization. He has played a major role in our success over the last several years, and when the opportunity arose, we wanted to ensure it was a move that made sense for both Duncan and the club. We’re grateful for everything he has given to Orlando City and wish him and his family nothing but success in this next chapter.”

The Lions selected McGuire out of Creighton with the No. 6 overall selection in the first round of the 2023 MLS SuperDraft. Although he was not a Generation Adidas player, the striker had signed a pre-draft contract with the league, meaning Orlando City didn’t need to spend time agreeing to a contract. The 6-foot-1 forward quickly became a starter for the Lions during his rookie year, and put together back-to-back, double-digit goal-scoring seasons in his first two professional seasons. Now in his fourth pro year, McGuire has appeared in 85 MLS matches (45 starts) for the Lions, scoring 29 goals and adding eight assists. In all competitions, McGuire has contributed 32 goals and nine assists in 109 appearances (55 starts).

Once one of the most promising up-and-coming American strikers in any league after his 24 goals across his first two MLS campaign, Mcguire underwent surgery on both shoulders in separate procedures after the 2024 MLS Cup playoffs, which have restricted his availability, affected his form, and have limited him to just five goals and three assists in his last 29 matches. He has sat behind various other strikers starting in his place the last couple of seasons, including Ramiro Enrique, Luis Muriel, and Justin Ellis.

After his breakout rookie campaign, in which the Omaha, NE native scored 14 goals, he was courted by several teams in Europe. He signed with Blackburn Rovers in 2024, only to see the transfer rejected by the English Football League due to an administrative error by the EFL Championship club. Upon his return, the Creighton product signed his most recent contract on Aug. 22, 2024, locking him down through 2027 with a club option for 2028. That deal now belongs to the Dynamo.

McGuire’s hot start to his professional career had him climbing the U.S. Men’s National Team player pool. Gregg Berhalter called him up to the USMNT for the first time in January 2024 ahead of the team’s friendly against Slovenia. The striker made his first USMNT appearance in that match, coming off the bench to replace Brian White on Jan. 20, 2024, in a 1-0 loss. That is his only cap to date, although he had previously appeared nine times and scored one goal for the U.S. U-23 side.

The 2022 Hermann Trophy winner spent three seasons at Creighton, where he appeared in 24 games (23 starts) in his final (junior) season, logging 1,591 college minutes. McGuire scored 23 goals and added three assists in 2022.

What It Means for Orlando City

It makes sense to deal a striker making a base salary of $600,000 ($921,000 in total guaranteed compensation) if he can’t crack the starting lineup. While some of that comes down to coaching decisions and other players emerging, it didn’t help McGuire that he struggled to regain the consistent form he showed in his first two years in Orlando. In the end, this is a bit of a blow financially to the club, as the initial agreement with Blackburn was for a reported $4 million. He now departs for considerably less money, but his value understandably dropped with his production and the two shoulder surgeries.

McGuire is still just 25 years old, and sitting out after two surgeries means he has fewer miles on his legs than many players his age. He could still regain the form that saw him score 14 times in 2023 and 10 more times in 2024 and had the USMNT and European clubs paying attention. Orlando City will hope that he returns to form, because that will influence how much GAM the club eventually receives for this transaction.

A fan favorite since his arrival, McGuire will be missed, and while the Lions could perhaps have benefitted from getting a player back in return to bolster an area of need, the influx of GAM can help accomplish the same goal.

McGuire’s departure appears to solidify Justin Ellis’ position on the first team, although his play in the first half of the season likely already did that. It may also open up more minutes for Tiago. But the trade also tells us that unless a new striker is brought in, the Lions will play without a traditional target striker for the time being, allowing players who have typically either played as wingers, attacking midfielders, or false nines to have the freedom to fluidly change positions and force defenders out of their comfort zones when it comes to coverage. Martin Ojeda, Antoine Griezmann, Ellis, Ivan Angulo, Marco Pasalic, and the team’s fullbacks will be harder to keep tabs on under such a system.

Whether it will work or if it will further stress the team’s shoddy transition defense (or both) remains to be seen.

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Flashback Friday: July 10, 2022 vs. Inter Miami

Let’s rewind to a match against the Herons that featured the unlikeliest of heroes.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

With both the United States Men’s National Team and Colombia suffering World Cup exits that were both agonizing in their own right, this summer’s tournament has lost a little luster for me. Don’t get it twisted, I’m still looking forward to the rest of the games, but I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t going to be a little bittersweet.

Fortunately, Orlando City will be back in action before we know it, and in the meantime we can continue our practice of looking back on Lions matches from years gone by. Last week we relived a 4-0 win over Toronto FC from July 4, 2023. This week we go a little farther into the past to July 10, 2022, and a visit from Inter Miami.

Going into the match with the Herons, OCSC was badly in need of a result. The Lions were in the midst of a summer slump and had won just one of eight matches since squeaking by Toronto FC 1-0 back on May 14. To try to turn things around, Oscar Pareja sent out a lineup of Pedro Gallese in goal; a back line of Kyle Smith, Robin Jansson, Rodrigo Schlegel, and Ruan; Junior Urso and Cesar Araujo in the double pivot; Benji Michel, Mauricio Pereyra, and Facundo Torres in attacking midfield; and Ercan Kara up top.

Orlando’s effort to try to pick up a win had to wait a little longer than originally planned, as kickoff was postponed by close to two and a half hours due to lightning in the area. Once the game eventually started, both Orlando City’s fans and players probably wished it had been delayed a little longer. The Lions came out of the starting blocks slow and were guilty of a number of bad passes and miscommunication that made it difficult to get going offensively.

The bad start nearly cost the home side early, as Pereyra played a bad back pass in the seventh minute that was snagged by Indiana Vasilev, who promptly broke toward goal. Fortunately, his shot smashed into Gallese’s face and went wide of the net to spare Mauricio’s blushes. Speaking of the Uruguayan, Miami seemed to have keyed on him as a player to stop at all costs, because whenever the Lions started to get a rhythm in the final third, the Herons promptly fouled him to break up the flow of things.

It took half an hour for the first decent chances to finally surface for Orlando City. When those opportunities arrived, it was in the form of Urso taking a pop from outside the box that got blocked on the way through, and Michel nearly getting on the end of a training ground corner kick routine, only to be let down by a bad first touch.

That was mostly everything of note in a largely quiet first half. Miami had the more dangerous chances, but there wasn’t much to separate the teams in the end. Miami had a slim lead in possession (50.6%-49.4%), and also had more shots (6-3), shots on target (1-0), and corners (3-2). Orlando City was a shade more accurate in its passing (84.5%-83.6%).

Once the second half started, Miami very nearly got an early goal once again, but Robert Taylor didn’t get good contact on a header attempt and the ball went out harmlessly for a goal kick. Vassilev had a much more dangerous effort in the 49th minute, but he put his shot over the bar and wasted a nice passage of play from the visitors.

Orlando carved out an excellent chance of its own nine minutes later. Ruan played a clever cutback for Michel, but like Taylor, he didn’t get good contact on his shot and sent it tamely right to goalkeeper Drake Callender. Torres and Urso sent shots wide and high shortly afterward, before Miami really should have scored from a 72nd-minute corner kick. Aime Mabika found himself all alone in front of goal after the initial ball was played short, but he put his header wide right.

Tesho Akindele was one of the substitutes brought on, and he flashed his fresh legs by getting on a couple of chances as the game wound towards the 90th minute. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to convert either one, and things looked sure to end in a scoreless draw. Enter an extremely unlikely hero: Jake Mulraney.

In the second of four minutes of stoppage time, the winger sent a hopeful cross into the box with just two men in purple to aim for. The ball had relatively little chance of reaching Akindele, who was bracketed by two defenders, but Damion Lowe tried to clear it and instead sliced it off the underside of the crossbar and into the Miami net making it 1-0 to the good guys.

Unsurprisingly, given the state of the game up to that point, neither team managed to muster any real chances after that, and Orlando narrowly came away with three much-needed points.

OCSC ended the game with more possession (54.7%-45.3%) and better passing accuracy (96.6%-82.9%), while Miami took more shots (10-8) and won more corners (6-2). Both sides put just one shot on target, making the final score somewhat unsurprising.

Marcus Mitchell was at the helm for Player Grades in this game, and he gave the outstanding Cesar Araujo the Man of the Match award, with a grade of 7.5 out of 10. The midfielder racked up eight tackles, drew nine fouls, and played a key pass while snuffing out a lot of Miami’s danger before it could truly develop.

Those three points didn’t exactly galvanize the Lions in the short term, as they won just one of their next six games in all competitions, not counting a friendly loss to Arsenal. Fortunately, better times lay ahead in the U.S. Open Cup.


That’ll do it for this week’s edition of Flashback Friday. We’ve only got one more of these before Orlando City returns to action on July 22, so enjoy the reminiscing while you can. Vamos Orlando!

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