Connect with us

Orlando City

Orlando City: Contender or Pretender?

Orlando City’s results against teams in the top, middle, and bottom third of the standings and what it means.

Published

on

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

The dictionary definition of a mirage involves physics and how light bends as it travels through different air temperatures. I think exactly zero of you opened this article to read about science, so we can quickly move from the physics definition to the more generally used definition of mirage, which is that people think they see something, but what they see is not real.

Orlando City has played 20 real games of MLS soccer this season and currently sits fifth in the Eastern Conference and has the ninth best points earned per game rating in the entire league, but do those rankings reflect (see what I did there?) reality, and are the Lions one of the league’s best teams? Let’s take a look.

Orlando City is three games into the second half of the season — 59% of the way through the full season to be more precise — and at this point, there are still some scheduling quirks, but for the most part teams have played enough games that we can look at the results and not worry about a small sample size. The table below shows how the Lions performed at home and on the road as well as how they fared in games against teams in the top third, middle third, and bottom third of the overall league rankings for points earned per game. You read each cell in the table as two different values, the first being the number of games played and the number after the slash is the average points earned per game.

OpponentsAt HomeOn the RoadOverall
Games Against Top Third3 / 1.002 / 2.005 / 1.40
Games Against Middle Third4 / 1.254 / 1.258 / 1.25
Games Against Bottom Third3 / 3.004 / 1.757 / 2.29
Overall10 / 1.7010 / 1.6020 / 1.65
  • Top Third = Cin (H), Mia (A), Phi (A&H) Port (H)
  • Middle Third = Char (H), Chi (A&H), Col (A), NE (H), NYC (A), NYRB (A&H)
  • Bottom Third = Atl (A&H), D.C. (H), LA Gal (A), Mon (A), STL (A), Tor (H)

The schedule makers were fair to Orlando City, giving the team an even 10 home games and 10 away matches among their first 20 outings, and at the macro level the Lions were consistent, earning nearly the same points per game at home as they did on the road. Looking at the different segments, however, it is clear that Orlando beats up on the teams in the bottom third and then has mixed results against the teams ranked in the top and middle thirds.

This brings the mirage question back up, as teams in the bottom third will not qualify for the playoffs, and in games against the top two-thirds (the top 20 teams) in the league, Orlando City is 4-5-4, meaning the Lions earn points in most matches, but they are just as likely to win as they are to lose.

Looking at a performance table for the league’s top 10 teams, however, lends credence to the idea that that those might be real lions you see on the field when watching Orlando City. This table shows the average points earned per match by the top teams, and Orlando City is not alone among the top teams in how they earn their points.

Teamvs. Top Thirdvs. Middle Thirdvs. Bottom ThirdOverall
Philadelphia1.132.252.752.00
Vancouver1.402.002.432.00
Cincinnati1.752.141.891.95
San Diego2.331.502.221.95
Nashville1.751.702.331.90
Columbus1.252.172.331.85
Miami1.671.802.001.81
Minnesota1.002.001.781.70
Orlando City1.401.252.291.65
Portland0.001.632.131.58

I did not list out the performances of all 30 teams, but Orlando City’s 1.40 points earned per game against teams in the top third of MLS is tied for the sixth best in the entire league. The Lions struggle against the middle of the pack, ranking 18th, and then are elite again when it comes to playing the bottom teams (seventh).

Only two teams in the league are in the top 10 against teams in all three categories: Vancouver (sixth, fourth, third) and Columbus (ninth, second, fourth). Portland is the only team in MLS that has earned zero points against teams in the top third, but because the Timbers have only played three opponents in that category and because they have done well against the teams in the bottom 20, they are 10th overall in the league.

That’s enough talk about other teams for now, but it is important to note that the number of games against teams in each category weighs heavily on the overall ranking. Orlando City has had a varied schedule, but there are teams that have played as few as three games against top 10 teams and others who have played as many as nine. Teams have no control over their schedule, and since MLS has an unbalanced schedule every year, some teams get lucky or unlucky with their cross-conference games.

Orlando City has 14 games remaining, and while it has had a pretty varied schedule so far in terms of opponents, the club’s final 14 games are backloaded with teams currently in the top 10. This is not ideal, but it is how it is, and Óscar Pareja’s teams have been excellent closers in recent years, so if the Lions can do that again, they have a great chance to make some leaps up the table as half of their final 14 games are against teams above them in the overall standings.

Teamvs. Top Thirdvs. Middle Thirdvs. Bottom ThirdOverall
Philadelphia37414
Vancouver44715
Cincinnati74314
San Diego54514
Nashville81514
Columbus46414
Miami57618
Minnesota36514
Orlando City73414
Portland64515
  • Top Third = Cin (A), Col (A&H), Mia (H), Nash (A&H), Van (H)
  • Middle Third = Cha (A), NE (A), NYC (H)
  • Bottom Third = D.C. (A), KC (H), Mon (H), Tor(A)

If Orlando City does not close well, however, the Lions could find themselves dropping rapidly down the table due to 10 of their final 14 games being against teams in the top 20. The draws against a weak CF Montréal team, a Chicago Fire team that played down a player for nearly 55 minutes, and a New England team that was beaten before Robin Jansson gave away a needless penalty kick in the final minutes will loom large no matter how the season ends up, but considering Orlando City was the better team or a man up in all three of those games and none of those teams is a top 10 team, those will be six huge dropped points in the final standings.

Playing the woulda/coulda/shoulda/didn’t game accomplishes nothing, but those extra six points would have the Lions tied with Cincinnati (which they also could have beaten or at least tied!) as the third-best team in the league in points earned per game, and that would just be from beating teams much lower in the overall standings.

Ugh.

So, where did we end up? Orlando City is a top 10 team in points per game and in points per game against top 10 teams, and our eye test (important in an evaluation of whether something is or is not a mirage) says that it probably should have earned more points than it did. The glass-half-empty side of “the Lions should have earned more points than they did,” however, is that multiple times they were unable to earn points that were there for the taking, and that is generally not a sign of a championship-caliber team.

With a backloaded schedule that is one of the more difficult ones in the league (only Nashville has more games left against teams in the top 10, and two of those are against Orlando City), the Lions will need to be ruthless and not play with their food when they have chances to eat during the final months. I am far more optimistic than pessimistic, both in general and also when looking at the 2025 Orlando City team, and I think the team will finish strong and be a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

The 2024 team finished the season at 1.52 points earned per game, 8% lower than this year’s team’s current average of 1.65, and that team went all the way to the conference final. I believe this team is better than last year’s team, not just from those points earned per game, but also because of the talent of the players on the field, and that as Pareja’s teams often do, they will find their ideal lineup and get on a roll to end the season.

At least that is what I think I see out in front of us.

Vamos Orlando!

Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/12/26

Barbra Banda up for weekly honors, Johnny Cardoso to have surgery, Americans in midweek action, and more.

Published

on

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

Good morning, everyone. It was a mixed bag for Orlando’s soccer teams over the weekend, as the Orlando Pride and Orlando City B both picked up victories, while Orlando City lost. There’s no rest for the wicked though, because the Pride take on Boston Legacy on the road tonight, while the Lions will host the Philadelphia Union on Wednesday. We’ve got a lot to talk about this morning, so let’s get into the links.

Barbra Banda up for Weekly Honors

Barbra Banda’s game-winning strike over the North Carolina Courage has been nominated for the NWSL Goal of the Week. Banda cut across her marker in the 87th minute with the match tied 0-0 and curled a great strike inside the far post to give the Pride a lead that wouldn’t be relinquished. The victory got Orlando back on track after dropping two games in a row, and the goal was Banda’s league-leading eighth strike of the year. Make sure you go vote for her to win!

Surgery for Johnny Cardoso

Atletico Madrid announced on Monday that midfielder Johnny Cardoso will have surgery to repair an injury to his right ankle. Cardoso was hurt during a training session, with Atletico classifying the injury as a “high-grade sprain involving joint damage.” The club’s statement did not specify a timeline for his return to the field and U.S. Soccer has not made any statement besides wishing Cardoso a speedy recovery. That said, with this summer’s World Cup less than a month away, its tough to imagine that he’ll be healed up and ready to be part of the United States Men’s National Team roster. If that’s the case, it’ll be a bitter blow for both the USMNT and a midfielder that looked like a sure bet to be on the squad.

Americans in Midweek Action

There are a number of Americans who will be taking part in games during the working week, so let’s make sure we’ve got everything on the schedule. Things got started on Monday when Brenden Aaronson played 63 minutes in Leeds United’s 1-1 draw with Tottenham. Action continues today when Aidan Morris and Middlesborough face Southampton in the second leg of an EFL Championship playoff promotion semifinal. Wednesday sees Auston Trusty and Celtic take on Motherwell in a game with massive ramifications on the title race in the Scottish Premier League. Wednesday also has Alex Freeman and Villarreal hosting Sevilla in La Liga play, while Chris Richards and Crystal Palace will try to play spoiler against Manchester City.

MLS Matchday 12 Lessons

Matchday 12 is officially in the books for Major League Soccer, so what did we learn from the weekend’s action? For one thing, Jack McGlynn was imperious in his second game back from injury, as his brace helped the Houston Dynamo knock off LAFC on the road while USMNT assistant Jesus Perez was watching from the stands. The New England Revolution are now unbeaten in the club’s last seven league games, and Carles Gil was a big reason why, as he nabbed a goal and an assist in the Revs’ 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Union. He’s got four goals and four assists so far, and the Revs are sitting pretty at second in the Eastern Conference.

Transfer Rumor Roundup

European seasons aren’t quite wrapped up yet, but that isn’t stopping transfer rumors from flying thick and fast. We start with the Premier League, where Manchester City is reportedly prepared to trigger the release clause of 16-year-old Hertha Berlin midfielder Kennet Eichhorn, before immediately sending the player on loan to continue his development. Elsewhere in England, Manchester United, Liverpool, and Arsenal are all said to be interested in signing Juventus fullback Andrea Cambiaso. Switching lanes to the managerial side of things, Chelsea has reportedly identified Xabi Alonso as the leading candidate to become the next manager of the team, with the Spaniard said to be open to taking the job. Finally, Jose Mourinho is said to be open to taking the Real Madrid job, although he reportedly has a couple conditions that he wants met first.

Free Kicks

  • Kickoff times have been set for Orlando City’s three group stages matches in this year’s Leagues Cup.
  • The Lions will be launching a new merch collection Friday at The Final Whistle.

That’s all I’ve got for you this morning. Vamos Orlando!

Continue Reading

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. CF Montreal: Player Grades and Man of the Match

Here’s how your favorite Lions performed in Orlando City’s 2-0 loss to CF Montreal.

Published

on

Image of Griffin Dorsey trying to send the ball upfield against a Montreal defender.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

If you play Football Manager enough, you play plenty of games where the after-match comment is “a bore draw.” That appeared to be where Orlando City’s road game at CF Montreal was headed until a mistake by Robin Jansson in added time led to a penalty which opened the scoring for the hosts. They tacked on another late in stoppage time and the Lions will return home for a three-game set (one of them in the U.S. Open Cup) sore from Saturday’s 2-0 loss to CF Montreal.

Let’s take a look at how Orlando City’s players rated individually in their matchup with the Quebecois.

Starters

GK, Maxime Crépeau, 5.5 — With 25 shots by Montreal, one would’ve figured Crepeau was busy. Not really — he finished with three saves. A goalkeeper is almost never responsible for being scored on from the penalty spot, but Dagur Dan Thorallsson’s goal at the death is one Crepeau will want back, although in fairness it was perfectly placed. The Canadian goalkeeper finished with a 72.7% passing rate and was helped out after being rounded by Prince Owusu in a 1-v-1 opportunity that his teammates should never have allwoed for what would have been a goal if not for Iago’s sliding block to clear it off the line.

D, Adrián Marin, 5.5 — Marin got caught ball-watching in the 34th minute to allow a Wiki Carmona rocket that just went wide. Otherwise, he just didn’t impact the game one way or the other. Marin completed 87.8% of his passes and added one tackle, one block, and three clearances.

D, Robin Jansson, 5 Jansson played his normal emergency role all game. Unfortunately, he got put off-balance in the first minute of added time in the second half and fell into the legs of Luca Petrasso, giving a penalty. It was a rough ending for the captain, but Orlando left the door open for Montreal and the hosts took it. The Swede also couldn’t close down Thorhallsson to prevent the second late Montreal goal. Jansson completed 78.7% of his passes, with one tackle, 10(!) clearances, and one block.

D, Iago, 6 — We saw both sides of Iago. He had a really nice pass in the 17th minute to free up Eduard Atuesta on goal but the Colombian missed the target to waste Orlando’s best chance of the game. The Brazilian’s biggest highlight moment was in the 76th minute, when Owusu dribbled past Crepeau for an open look at goal but Iago was there to clear it off the line. On the flip side, he also had a dangerous header defending a corner that almost created an own goal, instead hitting the left post. He got pulled wide in the first minute of the second half, allowing a dangerous shot by Owusu. On the offensive end, he got on the end of a corner but headed it right at Thomas Gillier. He was all over the place, which you can expect from a young player. He would’ve gotten a higher grade had the game finished scoreless because of his goal-line clearance and a couple of sparkling long balls that should have led to more. Alas. He finished with zero interceptions or tackles, three blocks, six clearances, and a 92.3% passing rate. He also picked up a yellow card in the sixth minute of added time in the second half preventing a counter on one of his attacking teammates’ many turnovers.

D, Griffin Dorsey, 5.5— While Orlando City was heavily weighted to the left side all game, when the Lions went down the right, it was through Dorsey. He led the break down that side multiple times but had trouble connecting. Dorsey finished with one tackle, three clearances, and one cross while passing at a 79% rate.

MF, Iván Angulo, 4.5 — When Angulo whiffed on a ball in the second minute which caused a Montreal counter, it was an indicator of the night to come. He was sloppy all game long and, by The Mane Land’s unofficial tally, turned the ball over eight times, with the majority of those coming in his own defensive half. It was an ugly night that looked a touch better when Tyrese Spicer departed, changing Angulo’s duties, but it didn’t wipe out a forgettable match. He finished with 90.2% passing, despite being loose with the ball. He was two out of six for successful dribbles and two out of seven in winning ground duels.

MF, Eduard Atuesta, 5.5 — A major part of the toothlessness of the Lions in the match was the midfield play. While Atuesta had a 95% passing rate, the only real impact he had was in the 17th minute, when Iago broke him free with a great pass. Atuesta made a well-timed run, but he ended up doing nothing with it when he sent his shot wide of goal. He had a turnover in the fourth minute to leave Montreal with a 3-on-2 break, leaving me to wonder if it was going to be one of those nights for him. Luckily no, but there was no real contribution either. He picked up a yellow card in the 62nd, was dispossessed once, and committed four fouls.

MF, Braian Ojeda, 5.5 Atuesta’s midfield partner also had trouble linking the play but contributed a touch more defensively. His sloppy handling in the 41st minute allowed Montreal to keep possession and created a corner. In the end, he finished with one tackle, one block, one clearance, and a 90% passing rate.

MF, Tyrese Spicer, 6— Unfortunately, most of Spicer’s contributions came on the defensive end this game because he could never get himself in the flow offensively. While he was 10-for-11 passing, he attempted two shots, one right at the goalkeeper and the other that missed so badly it almost went behind the net without hitting anything. He had just two touches in the opposition box. His biggest highlight was a tackle in the 23rd minute to end a dangerous Montreal possession. He was replaced in the 67th minute by Duncan McGuire. Spicer finished with a 91% passing success rate, led the team in tackles with four, and added two interceptions.

F, Martín Ojeda, 5 — This grade may be a bit harsh. However, when you are a Designated Player, you have to contribute, and Martin Ojeda was invisible at best. With 44 total passes, he was the one having to compensate for the lack of midfield control and it showed by his lack of offensive contribution. He had zero touches in the opposition box, which is not going to be a recipe for Orlando City success. Martin took one shot that was on target and passed at a 91% rate.

F, Justin Ellis, 6.5 (MotM) Someone has to win Man of the Match. Ellis almost wins it by default as his overall play was the only positive thing all game. While his stats were mediocre, and there was not one moment you can pick to point to, he was the most talented when on the ball, tracked back to collect the ball occasionally, did more to link play than the midfield did, and just didn’t have a negative impact. He was replaced in the 80th by David Brekalo and finished with a 94% passing rate, was four-for-four on successful dribbles, and went five-for-six on ground duels won.

Substitutes

F, Duncan McGuire (67′), 5— McGuire started out playing out of position on the wing and while asked to pick up the offense, McGuire was unable to show anything of promise. Dorsey found him in the 88th minute with a cross, but McGuire turned down a quick shot and held the ball too long while deciding, and he ended up taking a low angle shot that had been there from the beginning that ended up harmless. He passed at a 75% rate and had three touches in the opposition box, turning those into a measly 0.05 expected goals. One of his touches on a promising attack was heavy and wasted the opportunity to get a shot off late in the game.

D, David Brekalo (80′), N/A — Brekalo came on for Ellis with a few minutes remaining, maybe a tactical choice to see out the draw. He completed all seven of his passes and had one clearance. He was not able to do anything to prevent Montreal’s two late goals, but he wasn’t the only one.

MF, Tiago (90′+5), N/A — Tiago entered right after the penalty to try to claw back a goal. Unfortunately, he whiffed on a 50/50 ball just moments before Thorhallsson ended up scoring the game’s second goal. He wasn’t on long enough to issue a grade, however.

D, Zakaria Taifi (90′+5), N/A — The best thing you can say about Taifi’s time is that he didn’t turn the ball over conceding a goal in the five minutes he was on the field.


That’s how I saw the individual performances in Orlando City’s loss to CF Montreal. Let us know what you thought of the game in the comments below, and don’t forget to vote for your Man of the Match.

Continue Reading

Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/11/26

Lions fall to CF Montreal, Pride defeat North Carolina Courage, OCB beats Atlanta United 2, and more.

Published

on

Image of Barbra Banda taking a shot against North Carolina.
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Justin Glatt

Hello, Mane Landers! I hope all is well with you down in Florida, and belated happy Mother’s Day to all you moms out there. I spent the weekend in Texas catching up with friends and family. Let’s wish a happy birthday to Orlando City goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau, who turns 32 today. We’ve got plenty to cover today, so let’s get to the links.

Lions Fall to CF Montreal

Orlando City fell 2-0 to CF Montreal at Stade Saputo Saturday on a pair of late goals. After a scoreless first half, the Lions were minutes away from escaping with a point on the road but conceded twice in stoppage time, with former Lion Dagur Dan Thorhallsson adding the insurance goal for Montreal as Orlando City left Canada with zero points. The Lions could not capitalize on their few scoring chances throughout the match. Orlando City returns home for its next match on Wednesday against the Philadelphia Union at Inter&Co Stadium.

Banda’s Late Goal Lifts Pride Over Courage

The Orlando Pride defeated the North Carolina Courage 1-0 at Inter&Co Stadium Friday, as Barbra Banda scored the lone goal late in the second half to help the Pride secure a much-needed win, snapping their two-match losing streak. Banda scored her eighth goal of the season, and she has scored five goals in the last three matches. The Pride will be on the road this week, facing the Boston Legacy Tuesday at Gillette Stadium, followed by another match Saturday against the Denver Summit at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park.

OCB Beats Atlanta United 2 on the Road

Orlando City B defeated Atlanta United 2 with a goal in each half, winning 2-0 at Turner Soccer Complex in Athens, GA Sunday. Gustavo Caraballo scored the opening goal from the spot to give the Young Lions the early lead. In the second half, Issah Haruna added another goal for the Young Lions to put it away and take three points. OCB will be back on the road Sunday to face New England Revolution II at Beirne Stadium in Smithfield, RI.

Americans Abroad

Austin Trusty played a full 90 minutes as Celtic won its sixth consecutive match across all competitions 3-1 against Rangers. Gio Reyna scored his first goal of the season for Borussia Monchengladbach to snap his 16-month goal drought at the club level, but his side fell 3-1 to FC Augsburg. Weston McKennie played 86 minutes for Juventus in a 1-0 win against Lecce. In the Women’s FA Cup semifinals, Alyssa Thompson played 78 minutes for Chelsea, but her side fell 3-2 to Manchester City after extra time. Lindsey Heaps scored for OL Lyonnes while Lily Yohannes and Korbin Shrader were also in action in a 4-1 win against Paris Saint-Germain to lift the Coupe De France trophy. Later today, Brenden Aaronson and Leeds United will face Tottenham Hotspur.

Free Kicks

  • Check out this video on Orlando City’s social media pages featuring some players writing letters to their moms for Mother’s Day.
  • James Rodriguez will reportedly leave Minnesota United this week and will not return to the club after the World Cup concludes this summer.
  • Slavia Prague chairman Jaroslav Tvrdik stated that the club will impose a lifetime ban to fans who invaded the pitch as the club was minutes away from defeating rivals Sparta Prague Saturday to win the Czech First League title before the match was abandoned.
  • Leandro Trossard scored a late winner in the second half to help Arsenal beat West Ham United 1-0 to keep its five-point lead over Manchester City and pull a step closer to clinching the English Premier League title.

That will do it for me today, Mane Landers. Enjoy your Monday, and I’ll see you next time.

Continue Reading

Trending