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View from the End Line: Schedules, Math, and Wild Guesses
The Eastern Conference race for the playoffs is getting more and more interesting by the week. Mathematically speaking, everyone in still in, but realistically, FC Cincinnati — currently on 18 points — will most certainly not make it this season. Positions five through 11 are currently separated by only 11 points, and most teams still have nine matches to play.
With two months left to go in the 2019 regular season, just what does each team’s schedule look like, and how do they compare to each other? I will be putting the scheduled matches and opponents through a complex algorithm to determine who has it easy, and who is staring up at Everest from base camp.
I will walk you through the teams below, listing their remaining matches in scheduled order, with their opponents’ current standing in their conference.
No. 5: New York Red Bulls
After their match against Los Angeles FC on Sunday, the Red Bulls switched positions with D.C. United, failing to improve upon their 37 points for the season with nine matches remaining. Those matches are:
- vs New England Revolution (6th)
- at D.C. United (3rd)
- at New York City FC (4th)
- vs Colorado (11th in West)
- at Seattle Sounders (2nd in West)
- at Portland Timbers (8th in West)
- vs Philadelphia Union (1st)
- vs D.C. United (3rd)
- at Montreal Impact (7th)
Playing five of nine on the road as the season closes is tough, and coupled with the relative positions of the opponents means a tough road lies ahead for the Red Bulls. They haven’t helped themselves in being vulnerable at home this season, either.
No. 6: New England Revolution
The Revs are currently on 34 points with nine matches remaining. Those matches are:
- at NYRB (5th)
- vs. Chicago (10th)
- vs. Toronto (8th)
- at NYCFC (4th)
- at Orlando (9th)
- vs. Real Salt Lake (6th in West)
- at Portland (8th in West)
- vs. NYCFC (4th)
- at Atlanta United FC (2nd)
The Revs may have gotten the rough end of the schedule stick, playing five of nine away, including at NYRB, NYCFC, OCSC, and Atlanta to finish the season. Bruce Arena has come in and has the club in form, but can the Revolution hold on through the tough stretch ahead?
No. 7: Montreal Impact
The Impact are currently on 33 points with eight matches remaining. Those matches are:
- vs. FC Dallas (7th in West)
- at Toronto (8th)
- vs. Vancouver (12th in West)
- vs. D.C. United (3rd)
- vs. FC Cincinnati (12th)
- at LA Galaxy (5th in West)
- vs. Atlanta (2nd)
- vs. NYRB (5th)
I can’t help but notice that the Impact play six of eight at home as they close out 2019. The Impact will certainly gain some benefit from that, although the strength of the teams traveling to play them is not to be taken lightly. Montreal is also having an odd run of form lately, and will need to turn it around before the last playoff position slips away.
No. 8: Toronto FC
The other club from the frigid north has nine matches left and is also on 33 points, but Montreal holds the first tiebreaker (the order: number of wins, goal differential, goals for). Those matches are:
- at Columbus (11th)
- vs. Montreal (7th)
- at New England (6th)
- at FC Cincinnati (12th)
- at NYCFC (4th)
- vs. Colorado Rapids (11th in West)
- at Los Angeles FC (1st in West)
- at Chicago (10th)
- vs. Columbus (11th)
Toronto plays six of the final nine matches on the road as the season comes to an end. The Reds have a few tough matches, but if they continue their recent form, they would be expected to pick up a solid number of points.
No. 9: Orlando City SC
The Lions are currently sitting on 30 points (last season they managed only 28) with nine matches remaining. Those matches are:
- vs. Sporting Kansas City (10th in West)
- at Minnesota United (3rd in West)
- vs. Atlanta (2nd)
- at San Jose Earthquakes (4th in West)
- vs. LAFC (1st in West)
- vs. New England (6th)
- at Houston Dynamo (9th in West)
- at FC Cincinnati (12th)
- vs. Chicago Fire (10th)
Orlando gets five at home and four on the road, but look at some of the opponents. There are plenty of opportunities for the Lions to get points, but the need is for three, not one. The Lions’ form is much better than last season, and they continue to improve every match, so it isn’t impossible to think they could sneak into the seventh spot, but it will certainly take some help. The Lions also hold a pretty good road record this season, but they do face a number of Western Conference teams, so they will need help from everyone else in the East — namely those top four teams in the conference, well maybe three of them.
No. 10: Chicago Fire
The Fire have 30 points as well, but lose on the first tiebreaker to the Lions. Chicago only has eight matches left, which are:
- at Portland (8th in West)
- vs. Philly (1st)
- at New England (6th)
- at Columbus Crew (11th)
- vs. FC Dallas (7th in West)
- at FC Cincinnati (12th)
- vs. Toronto (8th)
- at Orlando City (9th)
Five of those eight are on the road for the Fire to close out the regular season, and although they have been looking better over their last few matches, their road record does not inspire much hope.
No. 11 Columbus Crew
The Crew are currently on 26 points with only eight matches left and still have a chance mathematically. The remaining fixtures are:
- vs. Toronto (8th)
- at NYCFC (4th)
- at FC Cincinnati (12th)
- vs. Chicago (10th)
- at Atlanta (2nd)
- at Vancouver (12th in West)
- vs. Philly (1st)
- at Toronto (8th)
Five of those eight are also away for Columbus. Similarly to Chicago, the Crew’s road record is not good, and they will face some pretty tough teams across the final matches of the season, especially looking at those final two matches — they could be facing a team vying for the No. 1 spot in the East and then a team which might be looking to snag that last playoff spot.
I have spent the past three days trying to derive a formula to express the above information into something predictive, but nothing seems to work. So many of the teams above are streaky, like Montreal and New England, although their runs of form have been polar opposites.
The race for the playoffs is absolutely anyone’s guess at the moment, and it looks like everyone minus freshman FC Cincinnati has a shot. Orlando’s odds will be heavily dictated by the next three or four weeks of play. Wins, not draws, are now a must for Orlando if it wants a chance to be above the red line come October, and finally beating Atlanta in a few weeks could add some extra pressure on United as they chase the top spot in the East.
There is no reason to think the season is over, because it most certainly is not. No one thought that Tool would ever put out its new album and allow streaming services to stream their catalog, and guess what…they did.
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
Orlando City restarts its 2026 MLS campaign late tonight out west at San Jose.
Welcome to your match thread for a late night midweek matchup tonight between Orlando City (4-9-2, 14 points) and the San Jose Earthquakes (10-3-2, 32 points) at PayPal Park (10:30 p.m., Apple TV). This is the only scheduled meeting between the teams in 2026 and the first time the teams have met since 2024.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of tonight’s match.
History
Orlando City is 3-1-3 in the previous seven MLS meetings with the Quakes since the club joined Major League Soccer in 2015. The Lions got their only away win in the series in the last meeting and enter tonight 1-1-2 on the road against San Jose.
The teams last met on May 18, 2024, with Jack Lynn coming off the bench to score the game’s only goal. Lynn’s strike in the 89th minute broke the scoreless deadlock and lifted the Lions to a 1-0 victory.
The teams met in Orlando most recently way back on June 22, 2021, with the Lions beating the Quakes down, 5-0. Orlando got things started with an early penalty kick goal by Nani, followed by braces from Benji Michel and Daryl Dike to easily put the game away. The lasting memory from the game is Michel’s celebratory dance wearing a cowboy hat that came out of the stands.
Prior to that Orlando City romp, the last time the teams met was on Aug. 31, 2019 when the Lions got freight trained 3-0 at Avaya Stadium, giving the Quakes their first win in the series. San Jose’s offense came via a Chris Wondolowski brace and an early opening goal by Magnus Eriksson. Orlando looked flat and weary out of the gate.
The Lions were victorious in Exploria Stadium in the 2018 meeting on April 21, a 3-2 Orlando win. It was the first win in the series for either side after three straight draws. Chris Mueller, Sacha Kljestan, and Dom Dwyer gave the Lions a 3-0 lead before Florian Jungwirth pulled two back in the game’s late stages.
The Lions led all of the first three matches in the second half only to see San Jose pull level, with two of those tying goals coming late. In the 2017 meeting, Carlos Rivas finally broke the scoreless tie and gave Orlando City the lead in the 81st minute, but Wondolowski spoiled the Lions’ night with an equalizer two minutes later as the teams drew at Avaya Stadium, 1-1.
In 2016, the Lions were gut-punched in the 94th minute in an emotional match that ended in a 2-2 draw. It was the first home match following the Pulse nightclub tragedy and what appeared to be a storybook ending to a cathartic win turned sour on a last-gasp equalizer by Shea Salinas. Seb Hines — now the Orlando Pride’s head coach — opened the scoring for Orlando, only to see Chad Barrett tie it up. Julio Baptista restored the lead in stoppage time, but Salinas ruined everything.
The two teams also drew in the first meeting, a 1-1 affair at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with the Lions down to 10 men after Brek Shea was sent off in the first half. Kaká and Wondolowski each scored from the penalty spot four minutes apart in that initial meeting.
Overview
The teams meet tonight to get their post-World Cup portion of the season started. Orlando City has been terrible on the road all season long, keeping only one MLS opponent under two goals all year away from home and allowing five goals twice (at New York City FC and Nashville) and six goals twice (at LAFC and in the team’s most recent match away at FC Cincinnati just before the break).
Orlando City is a putrid 1-6-1 on the road this season, and now the Lions must face the Western Conference co-leaders tonight before coming home to face Supporters’ Shield-leading Nashville SC at home on Saturday. They’ll have to play at least tonight’s game without Martin Ojeda, who is out with a thigh injury sustained some time between his first-half goal a week ago in a friendly against FC Dallas and the time the availability report dropped on Tuesday.
But it isn’t all bad news for the Lions, who should have both Antoine Griezmann and Dike in the lineup. Griezmann was the club’s highly prized and widely publicized summer Designated Player signing, while Dike’s return to Orlando came together more recently, following his departure from West Bromwich Albion. They’ll help the club’s offense, but the attack hasn’t been the issue in 2026 — it’s been the historically porous defense, which is on pace to shatter the MLS record for goals conceded.
Meanwhile, San Jose is one of the first half of the season’s biggest surprises, as the Quakes have been outstanding in 2026. Scoring 34 goals while conceding just 15, San Jose is among the league leaders in goals scored (tied for third), goals conceded (third), and goal differential (+19, third).
The Earthquakes are 4-2-1 at home and are coming off a 3-1 road win at Portland in their last game prior to the World Cup break. San Jose boasts Golden Boot challenger Preston Judd, who leads the Quakes with 11 goals, adding two assists in his 15 appearances. Ousseni Bouda has chipped in five goals and three assists. Niko Tsakiris leads the team with seven assists to go along with his two goals, but he’s still recovering from a lower body injury and is not available tonight. However, the arrival of Timo Werner (four goals and five assists in just seven games) has truly elevated Bruce Arena’s Quakes, and he’ll need to be one of the main focal points for the Orlando defense.
To have any shot at taking something from this game, the Lions will need to play better road defense than they have all season. Orlando can score goals, but with Ojeda out, Griezmann will need to adapt quickly, and someone other than the team’s leading scorer will need to find the net.
The Lions will play without Ojeda (thigh), Joran Gerbet (knee), Nolan Miller (knee), Colin Guske (international duty), and Clovis Archage (international duty). In addition, Marco Pasalic may or may not have returned to the team after the World Cup. He was not in training Monday, although interim head coach Martin Perelman said he expected the Croatian back soon. The Earthquakes will be without Nonso Adimabua (lower body), former Lion Earl Edwards Jr. (lower body), DeJuan Jones (lower body), and Tsakiris (you guessed it, lower body…come on, San Jose).
Match Content
- Our most recent PawedCast includes our key matchups and score predictions for tonight’s match.
Official Lineups:
Orlando City (4-4-2)
Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.
Defenders: Adrian Marin, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Griffin Dorsey.
Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Braian Ojeda, Eduard Atuesta, Tiago.
Forwards: Justin Ellis, Antoine Griezmann.
Bench: Javier Otero, Bernardo Rhein, Tahir Reid-Brown, Zakaria Taifi, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Luis Otavio, Harvey Sarajian, Tyrese Spicer
San Jose Earthquakes (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Angus Gunn.
Defenders: Jamar Ricketts, Reid Roberts, Daniel Munie, Benjamin Kikanovic.
Defensive Midfielders: Beau Lerouox, Ronaldo Vieira.
Attacking Midfielders: Timo Werner, Nick Fernandez, Ousseni Bouda.
Forwards: Preston Judd.
Bench: Jonathan Gonzalez, Dave Romney, Paul Marie, Jack Skahan, Jack Jasinski, Ian Harkes, Francesco Montali, Max Floriani, Darius Johnson.
Referees
REF: Elijio Arreguin.
AR1: Adam Wienckowski.
AR2: Mike Nickerson.
4TH: Timothy Ford.
VAR: Jose Carlos Rivero.
AVAR: TJ Zablocki.
How to Watch
Match Time: 10:30 p.m.
Venue: PayPal Park — San Jose, CA.
TV/Live Stream: Apple TV.
Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).
Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.
Enjoy the match. Go City!
Podcasts
PawedCast Episode 542: Tampa Bay Friendly, McGuire Traded, OCB Beats Cincinnati, and More
Lions maul the Rowdies in friendly action, OCB wins on the road, and it’s transfer season.
Orlando City welcomed I-4 Derby rival Tampa Bay to Inter&Co Stadium for a friendly match on Wednesday and then proceeded to bludgeon the Rowdies with a couple of hammers named Antoine Griezmann and Justin Ellis. The two attackers combined for a goal and four assists in a 6-0 beatdown of the team from the Gulf Coast, with five different Lions scoring and Griffin Dorsey forcing an own goal. We discuss Griezmann’s first minutes with Orlando City, what the team showed in its formation, and how good Justin Ellis’ vision is.
Oh, and it’s also transfer season now. Duncan McGuire is on his way out and Marco Pasalic reportedly will follow soon, while a new left back may be headed from Spain to Orlando.
Following all of that, we discuss Maxime Crepeau being added to the MLS All-Star Team and the announcement that he’ll participate in the 2026 MLS All-Star Skills Challenge.
Our mailbagbox asked us about which World Cup semifinalist players we’d want to join Orlando this season (if we could only pick one), and more. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.
After the mailbagbox, we dive into OCB’s 2-1 road win at FC Cincinnati 2. It wasn’t the prettiest game by the Young Lions, but they managed to do enough to earn three points on the road, where they’ll stay to face Chattanooga on Saturday. We briefly preview that game.
Finally, Orlando City will be in Dallas Wednesday for the second of two friendlies leading up to the restart of the MLS season. It’s unlikely we’ll get a lot of details about that one, but we’ll see what happens. Maybe the FC Dallas folks will help us out.
Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.
If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.
Here’s how No. 542 went down:
0:15 – Orlando City crushed the Rowdies, the transfer season is in full swing, plus: hey now, Crepeau’s an all-star.
28:50 – The mailbagbox is always good for a hypothetical scenario.
36:54 – The Young Lions slipped past Cincy and head to Chattanooga, while the senior Lions head to Dallas.
Podcasts
SkoPurp Soccer Episode 119: International Break, USWNT, Louisville Preview, and More
The Pride return from a long international break looking to get their first-ever road win against Racing Louisville.
It feels like months since the Orlando Pride last took the field, but the calendar says otherwise. If you believe calendars, it’s only been a little less than three weeks, but time moves strangely in the post-pandemic apocalyptic world.
Anyway, we don’t have a match to recap, so we touched on a couple of Pride players putting the ball in the net during the international break and chat a bit about the United States Women’s National Team’s three-game friendly series against Japan. Emma Hayes used a lot of players, and the team looked solid for two of the three matches, but the rotated middle game seemed a bit disjointed. Hayes has greatly expanded the player pool and will have plenty of options when the World Cup approaches.
Our mailbagbox had questions about a potential change in the NWSL schedule, as the league explores adopting the fall-to-spring slate, and opposition own goals. Remember, you can ask us anything by hitting us up on Twitter at either @TheManeLand or @SkoPurpSoccer and using the hashtag #AskSkoPurp. You can use that same hashtag and hit @TheManeLand.bsky.social up on Bluesky. Or you can visit our show page, scroll down, and fill out the handy form. We’d also appreciate any ratings or reviews you can leave wherever you get your podcasts, and if you do that on Apple Podcasts, we’ll find them easily and read them on the show.
After the mailbagbox, we turned our attention toward Friday’s late afternoon tussle with Racing Louisville in Kentucky. The Pride have never won on the road against Louisville, and it’s about high time they did. This match begins a congested push to the June World Cup break, and although Friday’s hosts aren’t high in the table, the Pride must be at their best to get a road result in this fixture. We look back at the series history, compare the two sides, provide our key matchups in the game, and make our final score predictions.
If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.
Here’s how Episode 119 went down:
0:15 – We open the show with a little banter about the Pride in the international break and the USWNT’s series vs. Japan.
9:03 – The mailbagbox features questions via both eletronic mail and social media. We welcome all modes of delivery.
19:59 – The Pride travel to Louisville to face Racing. They’ve never won in Kentucky, but we inform them how to do so.
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