Orlando City
Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Atlanta United
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/OPvReign-2019-10-12-1-scaled.jpg)
To put things lightly, today’s game is an absolute whale of a match-up. Not only is Orlando City playing Atlanta United — a team most Lions fans are less than fond of — but the game comes at a time when Orlando could scarcely need three points more. Were it not for a frustratingly placed varsity football game that needs medical coverage, I would 100% be in the stands tonight for this one.
Even though I won’t be in The Wall this evening, I still did my pregame duty by sitting down with Sydney Hunte from SBNation’s Dirty South Soccer. As always, Sydney was gracious enough to give me an excellent update on how life has been treating Atlanta United. You can read my answers to their questions over at their place.
Atlanta certainly seems to be back to its MLS Cup-winning form with five wins in its last six league matches. What do you think has been the biggest reason for Atlanta being back to the team we’re used to seeing?
Sydney Hunte: I think it’s really a couple of things: A) a result of going back to what’s worked in the past for Atlanta — free-flowing, attacking football, and B) the presence of Josef Martinez, Pity Martinez, and Ezequiel Barco being on the field at the same time.
I do think that it’s more of the former since this team is simply not used to playing any other way. Frank de Boer tried to overplay his hand when he first came in and attempted to impose a more possession-based, slower version of what Atlanta players and fans were used to. There was a good bit of push-back because of it (including a publicized rift between de Boer and Pity Martinez), as well as some pointed comments from players to the media criticizing the change in tactics from what Tata Martino rolled out in 2017 and 2018.
I think credit is due to de Boer because rather than succumb to the stubbornness that cost him his job at Inter and Crystal Palace, he was willing to adapt and return to the tactical style that Atlanta was famous for in its first two years. Part of that was a switch to a 3-5-2 that favors play alongside the outside wings and depends on well-placed crosses into the box to create opportunities for players like Josef Martinez to score goals, and it’s no surprise that he’s looked better than he’s looked all season over this past chunk of matches. At times, the wings are able to work up the field and look for diagonal balls to break through the defense, which is what you saw with Julian Gressel on Josef’s goal in Portland.
The three DPs playing together and building chemistry certainly helps as well. Pity Martinez has slowly been acclimating himself into the forward corps and is hopefully set for a strong back end of the season going into the playoffs. Barco hasn’t quite found his form yet after a long absence but should return to it sooner rather than later. I think that once those two can put the pieces together, they — coupled with Josef Martinez — will make Atlanta tough to beat down the stretch.
One of those wins came in the Campeones Cup final over Club America. I’m curious to get an Atlanta fan’s perspective on the competition. Was it a trophy that most fans were super invested in winning or was it viewed as simply another distraction in a season where Atlanta already competed in the Concacaf Champions League and has advanced to the U.S. Open Cup final?
SH: I’ll be completely honest: I wasn’t too high on Campeones Cup, even with Atlanta having made it. However, after watching what turned out to be an emotional, competitive match against one of the big clubs in Liga MX, I came away with a greater appreciation of it and certainly will be watching in the future. I think that Atlanta fans will certainly pay more attention to it down the road whether they shared my sentiment coming into the match or were already amped up to see it play out.
I will say that Atlanta players were completely all-in on the competition, with even Pity Martinez guaranteeing a victory beforehand and Josef Martinez saying afterward that he would look back on beating Las Aguilas as a highlight of his career when he retired. You could certainly see what it meant to América players during the match as well. I think that in a sense, a team like Atlanta (or any other MLS side, for that matter) was really the best-case scenario for the organizers of the tournament as you’d like to see MLS grow more competitive with Liga MX sides — especially with this era of collaboration they’re in right now — which hopefully carries over to CCL.
What do you see as a match-up that Atlanta needs to win in order to make it three wins out of three against Orlando this season?
SH: I think it really rests on Orlando’s outside backs to neutralize the threat that both Justin Meram and Julian Gressel pose along the edges of the pitch. Obviously there’s no love lost between Meram and Orlando City fans, but he’s looked terrific in his tenure with Atlanta and has fit right into that 3-5-2 formation since both he and Gressel have the pace to work the ball upfield rather than it being forced through the middle — which really was a source of frustration for the team this season, especially without a player like Miguel Almiron, who really thrived on making those pretty runs through the center of the field.
Obviously, the health of João Moutinho and Ruan may be in question, but whoever is on either side of Orlando’s defense on Friday night will have their hands full.
Are there any injuries, suspensions, or call-ups that will keep players unavailable for selection on Friday? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?
SH: As I write this (on Tuesday evening), I’m not sure of the status of Franco Escobar and Eric Remedi as they both missed Campeones Cup last Wednesday and the Portland Timbers game on Sunday night with separate injuries. Brek Shea is done for the year with a knee injury. Mikey Ambrose, who was questionable for Portland, should crack the 18 but probably won’t see any time, but outside of that, it’s a largely clean bill of health.
Lineup-wise, de Boer has to toe the line of ensuring Atlanta is able to come away from Orlando with a result (especially on the road, and especially in a rivalry match) while having an eye toward a U.S. Open Cup final on Tuesday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against Minnesota United. That said, it should still be close to a first-team XI as possible, especially with the match in Philadelphia over Labor Day weekend being the last before the international break. Here’s how I think it will look if Remedi and Escobar are both fit (3-5-2):
Forwards: Josef Martinez-Pity Martinez.
Midfield: Justin Meram-Ezequiel Barco-Eric Remedi-Darlington Nagbe-Julian Gressel.
Defense: Franco Escobar-Leandro Gonzalez Pirez-Miles Robinson.
If Remedi and Escobar can’t go, look for Jeff Larentowicz and Florentin Pogba to take their places in the lineup, respectively.
As for a scoreline prediction? Atlanta does come into Exploria Stadium riding that wave of momentum after a Campeones Cup victory at home and a key away win at the Timbers, giving it back-to-back away wins across all competitions after four straight losses away from Mercedes-Benz. I feel that they’ll be able to ride that to a victory, although I think Orlando makes it a little interesting and puts pressure on the visitors early on before allowing a pair of second-half goals. Let’s go with 2-0 Atlanta with Josef Martinez extending his MLS-record scoring streak to 12 and Ezequiel Barco finding the net for his first goal in a while.
Big thanks to Sydney for the excellent info on Atlanta.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/The_more_you_know.0.jpg)
Opinion
Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024
Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/OCvMontreal-LeaguesCup-2024.07.26-29-1-scaled.jpg)
Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?
The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.
For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.
Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.
It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.
Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.
Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.
Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.
Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.
Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 9/6/24
Amanda Allen loaned to Lexington SC, Alex Morgan announces retirement, USMNT prepares for Canada, and more.
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Happy Friday! I don’t have many plans this weekend, but am still looking forward to the next few days after a hectic week. When not working, I plan on finally starting Book of Night by Holly Black and figuring out how to make the most out of some dark rum I was gifted. For now though, let’s get to today’s links from around the soccer world!
Amanda Allen Loaned to Lexington SC
The Orlando Pride have loaned forward Amanda Allen to Lexington SC for the remainder of the USL Super League season. This decision should give Allen some valuable minutes, and the loan includes a right to recall as well. The 19-year-old has made 17 appearances since joining the Pride and had an assist in this year’s season opener. She is also currently in Colombia for the U-20 Women’s World Cup and her Canada squad takes on Brazil tonight. Hopefully she’s able to tear it up in the USL Super League’s inaugural season.
Alex Morgan Announces Her Retirement
American forward Alex Morgan has announced that she will retire after the San Diego Wave’s match on Sunday. She also announced that she is pregnant with her second child.
In her 224 international appearances, Morgan scored 123 goals and was a major force behind the USWNT’s back-to-back World Cup victories in 2015 and 2019. At the club level, she has played in every year of the NWSL’s existence and joined the Orlando Pride ahead of their inaugural season in 2016. In her six years in Orlando, Morgan recorded 23 goals and 10 assists in 69 appearances. Off the field, she’s been an outspoken supporter of equality and increased investment in women’s sports. We wish her the best of luck after a legendary career.
USMNT Faces Canada on Saturday
The United States Men’s National Team will take on Canada on Saturday in Kansas City in the first of two friendlies this month. Plenty has changed since the U.S. beat Canada in a penalty shootout in the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup quarterfinals, particularly on the sideline. American coach Jesse Marsch was hired by Canada in May, while the U.S. will be led by Mikey Varas in an interim capacity amid buzz that Mauricio Pochettino will take over. The U.S. is without Giovanni Reyna for these friendlies due to injury, with Cade Cowell replacing him. Canada boasts a talented roster that includes a trio of former Lions in Cyle Larin, Richie Laryea, and Kamal Miller. After this match, the USMNT will take on New Zealand on Tuesday.
Keeping Up With International Soccer
San Marino may be one of the smallest countries in the world, but it arguably had the biggest win of a busy day of international soccer after beating Liechtenstein 1-0 for its first competitive victory. Elsewhere in the UEFA Nations League, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia, while Spain was held to a scoreless draw in Serbia.
The third round of AFC World Cup qualifying is underway and Australia was upset 1-0 at home by Bahrain. Japan suffered no such setback though, dominating China in a 7-0 home win. Palestine drew 0-0 against South Korea in Seoul, which is no easy task.
CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifiers have also resumed, and Bolivia came up with a huge 4-0 win in high altitude against Venezuela to move up the table. We may see some Lions in action today. Facundo Torres and Uruguay take on Paraguay, while Pedro Gallese, Wilder Cartagena, and Peru host Colombia.
Free Kicks
- FC Cincinnati’s Luca Orellano won MLS Goal of the Matchday for scoring from nearly 80 yards out to beat CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois. Orlando’s Facundo Torres placed second in the voting for his volleyed strike against Nashville SC.
- NJ/NY Gotham FC forward Ella Stevens was named NWSL Player of the Month after recording three goals and two assists in August.
- Argentina beat Brazil in blind soccer at the Paralympics, ending Brazil’s unbeaten streak that has lasted the past 20 years. France and Argentina will face off in the gold medal game on Saturday.
- Chris Jurasek has stepped down as Chelsea’s chief executive after a year in the position, with Jason Gannon replacing him.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season
A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CityReper83124-42.jpg)
We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.
The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:
- Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
- Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
- At Columbus (1.96, second)
- At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
- Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
- At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
- Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)
As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.
In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.
In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)
New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Last-7-Games-1024x257.png)
A few takeaways from this chart:
- I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
- That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
- Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
- Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.
During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Possible-7-Game-Results.png)
Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.
Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.
No, that loss still stunk.
Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Algorithm-1024x262.png)
That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Rank-Order.png)
Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.
I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.
While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.
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