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Orlando City

Intelligence Report: Orlando City vs. Atlanta United

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5 years ago

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To put things lightly, today’s game is an absolute whale of a match-up. Not only is Orlando City playing Atlanta United — a team most Lions fans are less than fond of — but the game comes at a time when Orlando could scarcely need three points more. Were it not for a frustratingly placed varsity football game that needs medical coverage, I would 100% be in the stands tonight for this one.

Even though I won’t be in The Wall this evening, I still did my pregame duty by sitting down with Sydney Hunte from SBNation’s Dirty South Soccer. As always, Sydney was gracious enough to give me an excellent update on how life has been treating Atlanta United. You can read my answers to their questions over at their place.

Atlanta certainly seems to be back to its MLS Cup-winning form with five wins in its last six league matches. What do you think has been the biggest reason for Atlanta being back to the team we’re used to seeing?

Sydney Hunte: I think it’s really a couple of things: A) a result of going back to what’s worked in the past for Atlanta — free-flowing, attacking football, and B) the presence of Josef Martinez, Pity Martinez, and Ezequiel Barco being on the field at the same time.

I do think that it’s more of the former since this team is simply not used to playing any other way. Frank de Boer tried to overplay his hand when he first came in and attempted to impose a more possession-based, slower version of what Atlanta players and fans were used to. There was a good bit of push-back because of it (including a publicized rift between de Boer and Pity Martinez), as well as some pointed comments from players to the media criticizing the change in tactics from what Tata Martino rolled out in 2017 and 2018.

I think credit is due to de Boer because rather than succumb to the stubbornness that cost him his job at Inter and Crystal Palace, he was willing to adapt and return to the tactical style that Atlanta was famous for in its first two years. Part of that was a switch to a 3-5-2 that favors play alongside the outside wings and depends on well-placed crosses into the box to create opportunities for players like Josef Martinez to score goals, and it’s no surprise that he’s looked better than he’s looked all season over this past chunk of matches. At times, the wings are able to work up the field and look for diagonal balls to break through the defense, which is what you saw with Julian Gressel on Josef’s goal in Portland.

The three DPs playing together and building chemistry certainly helps as well. Pity Martinez has slowly been acclimating himself into the forward corps and is hopefully set for a strong back end of the season going into the playoffs. Barco hasn’t quite found his form yet after a long absence but should return to it sooner rather than later. I think that once those two can put the pieces together, they — coupled with Josef Martinez — will make Atlanta tough to beat down the stretch.

One of those wins came in the Campeones Cup final over Club America. I’m curious to get an Atlanta fan’s perspective on the competition. Was it a trophy that most fans were super invested in winning or was it viewed as simply another distraction in a season where Atlanta already competed in the Concacaf Champions League and has advanced to the U.S. Open Cup final?

SH: I’ll be completely honest: I wasn’t too high on Campeones Cup, even with Atlanta having made it. However, after watching what turned out to be an emotional, competitive match against one of the big clubs in Liga MX, I came away with a greater appreciation of it and certainly will be watching in the future. I think that Atlanta fans will certainly pay more attention to it down the road whether they shared my sentiment coming into the match or were already amped up to see it play out.

I will say that Atlanta players were completely all-in on the competition, with even Pity Martinez guaranteeing a victory beforehand and Josef Martinez saying afterward that he would look back on beating Las Aguilas as a highlight of his career when he retired. You could certainly see what it meant to América players during the match as well. I think that in a sense, a team like Atlanta (or any other MLS side, for that matter) was really the best-case scenario for the organizers of the tournament as you’d like to see MLS grow more competitive with Liga MX sides — especially with this era of collaboration they’re in right now — which hopefully carries over to CCL.

What do you see as a match-up that Atlanta needs to win in order to make it three wins out of three against Orlando this season?

SH: I think it really rests on Orlando’s outside backs to neutralize the threat that both Justin Meram and Julian Gressel pose along the edges of the pitch. Obviously there’s no love lost between Meram and Orlando City fans, but he’s looked terrific in his tenure with Atlanta and has fit right into that 3-5-2 formation since both he and Gressel have the pace to work the ball upfield rather than it being forced through the middle — which really was a source of frustration for the team this season, especially without a player like Miguel Almiron, who really thrived on making those pretty runs through the center of the field.

Obviously, the health of João Moutinho and Ruan may be in question, but whoever is on either side of Orlando’s defense on Friday night will have their hands full.

Are there any injuries, suspensions, or call-ups that will keep players unavailable for selection on Friday? What is your projected starting lineup and score prediction?

SH: As I write this (on Tuesday evening), I’m not sure of the status of Franco Escobar and Eric Remedi as they both missed Campeones Cup last Wednesday and the Portland Timbers game on Sunday night with separate injuries. Brek Shea is done for the year with a knee injury. Mikey Ambrose, who was questionable for Portland, should crack the 18 but probably won’t see any time, but outside of that, it’s a largely clean bill of health.

Lineup-wise, de Boer has to toe the line of ensuring Atlanta is able to come away from Orlando with a result (especially on the road, and especially in a rivalry match) while having an eye toward a U.S. Open Cup final on Tuesday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against Minnesota United. That said, it should still be close to a first-team XI as possible, especially with the match in Philadelphia over Labor Day weekend being the last before the international break. Here’s how I think it will look if Remedi and Escobar are both fit (3-5-2):

Forwards: Josef Martinez-Pity Martinez.

Midfield: Justin Meram-Ezequiel Barco-Eric Remedi-Darlington Nagbe-Julian Gressel.

Defense: Franco Escobar-Leandro Gonzalez Pirez-Miles Robinson.

If Remedi and Escobar can’t go, look for Jeff Larentowicz and Florentin Pogba to take their places in the lineup, respectively.

As for a scoreline prediction? Atlanta does come into Exploria Stadium riding that wave of momentum after a Campeones Cup victory at home and a key away win at the Timbers, giving it back-to-back away wins across all competitions after four straight losses away from Mercedes-Benz. I feel that they’ll be able to ride that to a victory, although I think Orlando makes it a little interesting and puts pressure on the visitors early on before allowing a pair of second-half goals. Let’s go with 2-0 Atlanta with Josef Martinez extending his MLS-record scoring streak to 12 and Ezequiel Barco finding the net for his first goal in a while.

Big thanks to Sydney for the excellent info on Atlanta.

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Orlando City

How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively

How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.

Published

14 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.

Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.

Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:

The purpose of this image is a table to show how Atlanta United lined up in 2024 (mostly in a 4-2-3-1 but also in one of six other formations).

I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.

Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):

Table embedded as an image showing Orlando City doing best in goal differential in 12 games against three-man back lines, second best against four-man back lines, and having played once against a five-man back line (a 1-1 draw).

Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.

Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.

That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy four defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus eight goal differential for the season.

It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.

If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.

While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.

Table embedded as an image showing the most frequently used lineups against teams who deploy three defenders. The most frequently used attacking group has a plus three goal differential for the season.

I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.

Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!

Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.

Vamos Orlando!

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Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Atlanta United: Three Keys to Victory

What do the Lions need to do to get a victory to advance to the Eastern Conference final?

Published

16 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City continues its playoff journey against Atlanta United Sunday at Inter&Co Stadium. The Lions are coming off an emotional penalty shootout win over Charlotte FC in their best-of-three, first-round series. Likewise, Atlanta United stunned everyone by taking out Inter Miami to advance in its own best-of-three matchup. Now, the rivals meet in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

What does Orlando City need to do to get past Atlanta United to advance to the Easter Conference final?

Beat Guzan

Brad Guzan made 16 saves over Atlanta’s three matches against Inter Miami, including seven in the 3-2 win on the road in Game 3. The 40-year-old former USMNT keeper is in excellent form and is a big reason why the Five Stripes are facing Orlando City. Converting chances against Guzan will be crucial to earning a result. There have been times this season when the Lions have struggled to convert their chances. Despite that, the team has done enough offensively to get to this point. Facundo Torres, Martin Ojeda, Duncan McGuire, Ramiro Enrique, and others have contributed and will need to do so this weekend.

Cartagena is Essential

Orlando City lost twice to Atlanta United during the regular season. What is interesting, and perhaps relevant, is that Wilder Cartagena was out for both of those matches. Cartagena was shown a straight red in the match against Minnesota United prior to the first match against Atlanta way back in March. He was shown a yellow card in the match against FC Cincinnati and then served a yellow card accumulation suspension for the final match of the season against Atlanta. Fortunately for Orlando City, Cartagena will be available for the match this weekend. I’ve mentioned before the importance of Cartagena to Orlando City’s success. When he and Cesar Araujo are on the field together, the defense is simply better. Cartagena is frankly one of the better defensive midfielders in MLS. Atlanta scored five goals in the series against Miami, and Orlando will need to keep the visitors from having that kind of offensive success.

Overcome the Past

That darn international break in the middle of the playoffs is something I don’t love. More precisely, I don’t like it because Orlando City often struggles after a break. It would have been nice if Orlando City could have ridden the momentum from the penalty kick victory into the Atlanta match, but that’s not to be. Now is the time for Orlando City to break some bad habits, including turning around its historical lack of success against Atlanta, and tendency to struggle in the first match after a break. Oscar Pareja needs to have the players in the right frame of mind, and the players need to execute the plan. A full house of supporters can also make a difference. Given it’s a Sunday afternoon match, there’s no reason not to pack the house.

That is what I will be looking for Sunday afternoon. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 11/21/24

Marta’s chance to shine in NWSL Championship, NWSL and MLS award winners announced, 2025 SheBelieves Cup details, and more.

Published

19 hours ago

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November 21, 2024

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Image courtesy of Orlando Pride

How’s it going, Mane Landers? I’ve been spending most of this week plotting out some holiday shopping to make things a little less stressful for myself over the next few weeks. A big weekend filled with Orlando soccer awaits us, so make sure to get any errands or obligations out of the way sooner rather than later. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Spotlight Falls On Marta in NWSL Championship

There are plenty of storylines heading into Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Orlando Pride and Washington Spirit, including Marta’s opportunity to put an exclamation point on what has been an excellent season for the Pride. Orlando has been enjoying the fruits of its labor this season after a rebuild over the past few years that’s included plenty of change in the City Beautiful. Marta has been a constant, however, enduring some difficult seasons since joining the Pride and adapting her game She’s scored in both of the Pride’s playoff games so far and has a chance to author a storybook ending on Saturday.

Ann-Katrin Berger Named NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year

NJ/NY Gotham FC goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was named 2024 NWSL Goalkeeper of the Year, beating out the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse and Utah Royals FC’s Mandy Haught for the honor. It was Berger’s first year in the NWSL and she’s the first European player to win the award. She only conceded 16 goals across her 22 matches for Gotham this season and was a key reason behind her team’s success. I’m not too surprised that Moorhouse did not win, considering how solid the Pride’s defense was as a whole, but this won’t take anything away from a record-breaking season for her.

Wilfried Nancy Named MLS Coach of the Year

Columbus Crew Head Coach Wilfried Nancy was voted 2024 MLS Coach of the Year after a historic season in which the Crew set club records in both points and goals. The Crew also won the Leagues Cup this summer and their 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup campaign included advancing past Tigres and Monterrey en route to the final. This is Nancy’s first time being named Coach of the Year and he has been a finalist for the award every year since 2021. The Frenchman received 40.02% of the vote, winning the award over Inter Miami’s Gerardo Martino and Colorado Rapids Head Coach Chris Armas.

2025 SheBelieves Cup Details Unveiled

The 10th annual SheBelieves Cup will take place next year and the tournament will return to its usual format where each of the four teams plays each other once. The United States Women’s National Team will host Japan, Colombia, and Australia in February in what should be an exciting tournament. The U.S. will take on Colombia on Feb. 20 in Houston before facing Australia in Arizona on Feb. 23 and finishing the tournament on Feb. 26 against Japan at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego. These games will also be the first domestic games of 2025 for the USWNT as it prepares to qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil.

Eric Quill Named FC Dallas Head Coach

FC Dallas announced that Eric Quill will become the team’s next head coach. Quill joins Dallas after a great year with New Mexico United that included trips to the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinals and USL Championship Western Conference semifinals. It’s also a reunion of sorts for Quill, as he previously coached North Texas SC and was named USL League One Coach of the Year with the club in 2019. Dallas missed out on the playoffs this season, with Peter Luccin coaching the team on an interim basis after the firing of Nico Estevez in June.

Free Kicks

  • District of Columbia Mayor Muriel Bowser challenged Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer to a bet involving this weekend’s NWSL Championship, with embarrassing lightshows on the line.

That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

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