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Breaking Down a Potential Trade of Dom Dwyer for Darwin Quintero

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With rumors swirling of Minnesota United’s interest in Orlando City striker Dom Dwyer, as well as the claim of Darwin Quintero that the Loons have not picked up his option for 2020 (although that has apparently been refuted by the club), many believe a deal might be imminent that would send Dwyer to Minnesota and Quintero to Orlando. Right now it’s all nothing but speculation and rumor. But it’s the off-season, so…let’s talk about it! Is this a deal that would make sense for the Lions?

Both players have shown they can score double digit goals in Major League Soccer and both have worn the Designated Player tag the last couple of seasons.

Quintero completed his second season with Minnesota but seemed to fall out of favor in the latter stages of the year. He played in more games this season (30 in 2019, 27 in 2018) but started one fewer match (26 this year compared to 27 last season), and played 188 fewer minutes (2,208 as opposed to 2,396), which is just a little more than the equivalent of two fewer matches. He scored 10 goals in 2019 after netting 11 a year ago. His shots were close to identical as well, as he fired 81 shot attempts in his second MLS season after trying 78 last season. But he got more on target last year (32) than in 2019 (27). His goal, time played, and shots data is close to identical over the course of his two seasons in Minnesota.

However, the big change for Quintero came in distribution. Quintero assisted on 15 goals in 2018 for an offense that scored 49 times in total. But this season he registered only five assists for an offense that scored 52 goals. A drop-off of double digit assists in the era of the hockey assist is curious.

Meanwhile, Dwyer had his worst goal-scoring season since 2013, when he netted two goals in 16 appearances with Sporting Kansas City. He finished the season with seven goals and four assists in 27 appearances, which seems a huge drop-off after finding the net 13 times in 26 games a year ago. And it is a big drop, but when you consider that he started 16 times compared to 25 last season, and played 630 fewer minutes, a big chunk of that production drop can be explained.

What can’t be explained is the higher-than-expected rate of missed sitters Dwyer had in 2019. Whether it was a lack of confidence due to coming off the bench more, trying to do too much to show he should be a regular starter, off-field distractions — don’t condemn me for this, but I spent eight months during my wife’s last pregnancy as a nervous wreck and it absolutely messed with my concentration and everyday life — or something else, Dwyer wasn’t his normal, reliable self. While he’s always been streaky and he’s always missed some sitters, you could typically also count on him to stick somewhere between a dozen and 16 balls into the back of the net over the course of a season.

On the other hand, despite a drop in minutes, Dwyer provided four assists in 2019 — the second most of his career. He had five assists in 2017, with one before his arrival in Orlando and four more after being paired up top with Cyle Larin. The Larin-Dwyer pair we wanted to see never materialized in 2018 because of how the Canadian engineered his exit from the club (and the club has its share of blame for that happening as well, but I digress).

So, when you look at the last two seasons the math gives you these sums:

  • Quintero: 57 games played, 53 starts, 4,604 minutes, 21 goals, 20 assists, 159 shots, 59 shots on goal, 52 fouls committed, 23 offside calls, and eight yellow cards.
  • Dwyer: 53 games played, 41 starts, 3,858 minutes, 20 goals, four assists, 144 shots, 62 shots on goal, 80 fouls committed, 56 offside calls, 16 yellow cards and one red card.

What we can take from those numbers is that Quintero is a much better setup man. The two have scored about the same number of goals, with Quintero needing more minutes and shots to get there. Dwyer is more likely to be called for offside, commit a foul, or go in the book.

Why Orlando City Should Consider the Deal

The biggest pro for both is a fresh start for the players. If each guy gets a second wind from the deal, it’ll be good for Dwyer and Quintero. Orlando fans will enjoy Quintero’s more consistent play and the added dimension he brings in setting up others. A fresh face is usually a popular one unless the new guy struggles, so any residual anger some fans feel for Dwyer after his 2019 scoring slump would turn into a more positive vibe — at least in the short term.

Being a Colombian, Quintero might have a better understanding of how some of his teammates (Sebas Mendez, for example) want to play and his style might better suit working with Nani. He’d be better at providing for guys like Tesho Akindele, Chris Mueller, Benji Michel, and Santiago Patino.

Why Orlando City Shouldn’t Consider the Deal

If this is a straight-up, one-for-one trade, it might not be in the best interest of OCSC. For starters, Quintero will turn 33 during the 2020 season. Dom will turn 30 in late July. While Dwyer has shown that he can be susceptible to injuries, there’s not a huge gap in games played between the two, so I wouldn’t even make that a consideration. Some fans want a bigger striker because Dwyer is often dwarfed by the opposing team’s center backs. Quintero is listed as being four inches shorter than Dwyer.

Quintero made $1.75 million in guaranteed salary this past season. Dwyer made $1.5 million. Orlando would be giving up a quarter million dollars more in salary (although nothing extra against the cap if swapping one DP for another) by trading forwards with Minnesota. At least there would be no need for an international slot, as Quintero has received his green card. If the plan is to buy down Dwyer/Quintero with allocation money, you’re probably better off with the less expensive guy.

Dwyer showed signs of finally busting his slump late in the season, scoring two goals and adding an assist in his final three matches of 2019. He fired 11 shots with seven on target in those three games. Quintero, on the other hand, scored only two goals in his last eight appearances and they both came in the same game.

If Dwyer returns to his usual numbers — perhaps not DP numbers in today’s MLS but pretty strong — and Quintero continues to slide, there would be a lot of upset folks in the stands of Exploria Stadium after such a trade.

Mitigating Circumstances that Could Make the Deal Better/Worse

Any deal between the two teams could change drastically depending on whether any other assets are involved. That could be in the form of players, draft picks, allocation money, an international slot, allocation ranking, etc. A straight-up trade would seem fairly even financially and we’ve already seen that it wouldn’t necessarily be lopsided on the production side. But whoever gets the other team to throw in additional assets could come out on the right end of such a trade.


Ultimately, if a deal is struck, Quintero might be a good addition to Orlando and he might even provide more offense than Dwyer. However, if the Lions are going to get older and shorter up front, this can’t be the final move the club should make up top this off-season. Just as Dwyer may more of a prototypical MLS 2.0 striker than an MLS 3.0 striker, Quintero also may not be the answer. If the club is going to find its own Carlos Vela/Zlatan Ibrahimovic/Josef Martinez type, neither guy is one of those. However, Quintero would seem a better fit in a three-man front opposite Nani with one of those Vela/Zlatan/Martinez types in the middle.

Whether the next coach is Oscar Pareja or someone else, they might have their own opinion on whether or not they’d rather work with Dwyer or Quintero. That’s something else to keep in mind if nothing happens in this two-day trade window. This could always happen later after the new coach is in place and has had time to review his squad.

Right now, we haven’t heard of anything being imminent, but things can move suddenly and quickly when the trade window is open. We’ll see what happens if this kind of deal comes to pass. For now, I just thought it would be fun to look at the numbers to see what it might look like if a deal gets done.

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More

Orlando City restarts its 2026 MLS campaign late tonight out west at San Jose.

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Image of Braian Ojeda taking a shot in a friendly against FC Dallas.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Justin Glatt

Welcome to your match thread for a late night midweek matchup tonight between Orlando City (4-9-2, 14 points) and the San Jose Earthquakes (10-3-2, 32 points) at PayPal Park (10:30 p.m., Apple TV). This is the only scheduled meeting between the teams in 2026 and the first time the teams have met since 2024.

Here’s what you need to know ahead of tonight’s match.

History

Orlando City is 3-1-3 in the previous seven MLS meetings with the Quakes since the club joined Major League Soccer in 2015. The Lions got their only away win in the series in the last meeting and enter tonight 1-1-2 on the road against San Jose.

The teams last met on May 18, 2024, with Jack Lynn coming off the bench to score the game’s only goal. Lynn’s strike in the 89th minute broke the scoreless deadlock and lifted the Lions to a 1-0 victory.

The teams met in Orlando most recently way back on June 22, 2021, with the Lions beating the Quakes down, 5-0. Orlando got things started with an early penalty kick goal by Nani, followed by braces from Benji Michel and Daryl Dike to easily put the game away. The lasting memory from the game is Michel’s celebratory dance wearing a cowboy hat that came out of the stands.

Prior to that Orlando City romp, the last time the teams met was on Aug. 31, 2019 when the Lions got freight trained 3-0 at Avaya Stadium, giving the Quakes their first win in the series. San Jose’s offense came via a Chris Wondolowski brace and an early opening goal by Magnus Eriksson. Orlando looked flat and weary out of the gate.

The Lions were victorious in Exploria Stadium in the 2018 meeting on April 21, a 3-2 Orlando win. It was the first win in the series for either side after three straight draws. Chris Mueller, Sacha Kljestan, and Dom Dwyer gave the Lions a 3-0 lead before Florian Jungwirth pulled two back in the game’s late stages.

The Lions led all of the first three matches in the second half only to see San Jose pull level, with two of those tying goals coming late. In the 2017 meeting, Carlos Rivas finally broke the scoreless tie and gave Orlando City the lead in the 81st minute, but Wondolowski spoiled the Lions’ night with an equalizer two minutes later as the teams drew at Avaya Stadium, 1-1.

In 2016, the Lions were gut-punched in the 94th minute in an emotional match that ended in a 2-2 draw. It was the first home match following the Pulse nightclub tragedy and what appeared to be a storybook ending to a cathartic win turned sour on a last-gasp equalizer by Shea Salinas. Seb Hines — now the Orlando Pride’s head coach — opened the scoring for Orlando, only to see Chad Barrett tie it up. Julio Baptista restored the lead in stoppage time, but Salinas ruined everything.

The two teams also drew in the first meeting, a 1-1 affair at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with the Lions down to 10 men after Brek Shea was sent off in the first half. Kaká and Wondolowski each scored from the penalty spot four minutes apart in that initial meeting.

Overview

The teams meet tonight to get their post-World Cup portion of the season started. Orlando City has been terrible on the road all season long, keeping only one MLS opponent under two goals all year away from home and allowing five goals twice (at New York City FC and Nashville) and six goals twice (at LAFC and in the team’s most recent match away at FC Cincinnati just before the break).

Orlando City is a putrid 1-6-1 on the road this season, and now the Lions must face the Western Conference co-leaders tonight before coming home to face Supporters’ Shield-leading Nashville SC at home on Saturday. They’ll have to play at least tonight’s game without Martin Ojeda, who is out with a thigh injury sustained some time between his first-half goal a week ago in a friendly against FC Dallas and the time the availability report dropped on Tuesday.

But it isn’t all bad news for the Lions, who should have both Antoine Griezmann and Dike in the lineup. Griezmann was the club’s highly prized and widely publicized summer Designated Player signing, while Dike’s return to Orlando came together more recently, following his departure from West Bromwich Albion. They’ll help the club’s offense, but the attack hasn’t been the issue in 2026 — it’s been the historically porous defense, which is on pace to shatter the MLS record for goals conceded.

Meanwhile, San Jose is one of the first half of the season’s biggest surprises, as the Quakes have been outstanding in 2026. Scoring 34 goals while conceding just 15, San Jose is among the league leaders in goals scored (tied for third), goals conceded (third), and goal differential (+19, third).

The Earthquakes are 4-2-1 at home and are coming off a 3-1 road win at Portland in their last game prior to the World Cup break. San Jose boasts Golden Boot challenger Preston Judd, who leads the Quakes with 11 goals, adding two assists in his 15 appearances. Ousseni Bouda has chipped in five goals and three assists. Niko Tsakiris leads the team with seven assists to go along with his two goals, but he’s still recovering from a lower body injury and is not available tonight. However, the arrival of Timo Werner (four goals and five assists in just seven games) has truly elevated Bruce Arena’s Quakes, and he’ll need to be one of the main focal points for the Orlando defense.

To have any shot at taking something from this game, the Lions will need to play better road defense than they have all season. Orlando can score goals, but with Ojeda out, Griezmann will need to adapt quickly, and someone other than the team’s leading scorer will need to find the net.

The Lions will play without Ojeda (thigh), Joran Gerbet (knee), Nolan Miller (knee), Colin Guske (international duty), and Clovis Archage (international duty). In addition, Marco Pasalic may or may not have returned to the team after the World Cup. He was not in training Monday, although interim head coach Martin Perelman said he expected the Croatian back soon. The Earthquakes will be without Nonso Adimabua (lower body), former Lion Earl Edwards Jr. (lower body), DeJuan Jones (lower body), and Tsakiris (you guessed it, lower body…come on, San Jose).

Match Content


Official Lineups:

Orlando City (4-4-2)

Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.

Defenders: Adrian Marin, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Griffin Dorsey.

Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Braian Ojeda, Eduard Atuesta, Tiago.

Forwards: Justin Ellis, Antoine Griezmann.

Bench: Javier Otero, Bernardo Rhein, Tahir Reid-Brown, Zakaria Taifi, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Luis Otavio, Harvey Sarajian, Tyrese Spicer

San Jose Earthquakes (4-2-3-1)

Goalkeeper: Angus Gunn.

Defenders: Jamar Ricketts, Reid Roberts, Daniel Munie, Benjamin Kikanovic.

Defensive Midfielders: Beau Lerouox, Ronaldo Vieira.

Attacking Midfielders: Timo Werner, Nick Fernandez, Ousseni Bouda.

Forwards: Preston Judd.

Bench: Jonathan Gonzalez, Dave Romney, Paul Marie, Jack Skahan, Jack Jasinski, Ian Harkes, Francesco Montali, Max Floriani, Darius Johnson.

Referees

REF: Elijio Arreguin.
AR1: Adam Wienckowski.
AR2: Mike Nickerson.
4TH: Timothy Ford.
VAR: Jose Carlos Rivero.
AVAR: TJ Zablocki.


How to Watch

Match Time: 10:30 p.m.

Venue: PayPal Park — San Jose, CA.

TV/Live Stream: Apple TV.

Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).

Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.


Enjoy the match. Go City!

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Podcasts

PawedCast Episode 542: Tampa Bay Friendly, McGuire Traded, OCB Beats Cincinnati, and More

Lions maul the Rowdies in friendly action, OCB wins on the road, and it’s transfer season.

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Image of Antoine Griezmann and Ivan Angulo celebrating a goal in a friendly against the Tampa Bay Rowdies.
Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City welcomed I-4 Derby rival Tampa Bay to Inter&Co Stadium for a friendly match on Wednesday and then proceeded to bludgeon the Rowdies with a couple of hammers named Antoine Griezmann and Justin Ellis. The two attackers combined for a goal and four assists in a 6-0 beatdown of the team from the Gulf Coast, with five different Lions scoring and Griffin Dorsey forcing an own goal. We discuss Griezmann’s first minutes with Orlando City, what the team showed in its formation, and how good Justin Ellis’ vision is.

Oh, and it’s also transfer season now. Duncan McGuire is on his way out and Marco Pasalic reportedly will follow soon, while a new left back may be headed from Spain to Orlando.

Following all of that, we discuss Maxime Crepeau being added to the MLS All-Star Team and the announcement that he’ll participate in the 2026 MLS All-Star Skills Challenge.

Our mailbagbox asked us about which World Cup semifinalist players we’d want to join Orlando this season (if we could only pick one), and more. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.

After the mailbagbox, we dive into OCB’s 2-1 road win at FC Cincinnati 2. It wasn’t the prettiest game by the Young Lions, but they managed to do enough to earn three points on the road, where they’ll stay to face Chattanooga on Saturday. We briefly preview that game.

Finally, Orlando City will be in Dallas Wednesday for the second of two friendlies leading up to the restart of the MLS season. It’s unlikely we’ll get a lot of details about that one, but we’ll see what happens. Maybe the FC Dallas folks will help us out.

Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.


Here’s how No. 542 went down:

0:15 – Orlando City crushed the Rowdies, the transfer season is in full swing, plus: hey now, Crepeau’s an all-star.

28:50 – The mailbagbox is always good for a hypothetical scenario.

36:54 – The Young Lions slipped past Cincy and head to Chattanooga, while the senior Lions head to Dallas.

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Podcasts

SkoPurp Soccer Episode 119: International Break, USWNT, Louisville Preview, and More

The Pride return from a long international break looking to get their first-ever road win against Racing Louisville.

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Image of Haley McCutcheon scoring the opening goal in Orlando's home playoff win over Seattle.
Image courtesy of Orlando Pride / Jeremy Reper

It feels like months since the Orlando Pride last took the field, but the calendar says otherwise. If you believe calendars, it’s only been a little less than three weeks, but time moves strangely in the post-pandemic apocalyptic world.

Anyway, we don’t have a match to recap, so we touched on a couple of Pride players putting the ball in the net during the international break and chat a bit about the United States Women’s National Team’s three-game friendly series against Japan. Emma Hayes used a lot of players, and the team looked solid for two of the three matches, but the rotated middle game seemed a bit disjointed. Hayes has greatly expanded the player pool and will have plenty of options when the World Cup approaches.

Our mailbagbox had questions about a potential change in the NWSL schedule, as the league explores adopting the fall-to-spring slate, and opposition own goals. Remember, you can ask us anything by hitting us up on Twitter at either @TheManeLand or @SkoPurpSoccer and using the hashtag #AskSkoPurp. You can use that same hashtag and hit @TheManeLand.bsky.social up on Bluesky. Or you can visit our show page, scroll down, and fill out the handy form. We’d also appreciate any ratings or reviews you can leave wherever you get your podcasts, and if you do that on Apple Podcasts, we’ll find them easily and read them on the show.

After the mailbagbox, we turned our attention toward Friday’s late afternoon tussle with Racing Louisville in Kentucky. The Pride have never won on the road against Louisville, and it’s about high time they did. This match begins a congested push to the June World Cup break, and although Friday’s hosts aren’t high in the table, the Pride must be at their best to get a road result in this fixture. We look back at the series history, compare the two sides, provide our key matchups in the game, and make our final score predictions.

If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.


Here’s how Episode 119 went down:

0:15 – We open the show with a little banter about the Pride in the international break and the USWNT’s series vs. Japan.

9:03 – The mailbagbox features questions via both eletronic mail and social media. We welcome all modes of delivery.

19:59 – The Pride travel to Louisville to face Racing. They’ve never won in Kentucky, but we inform them how to do so.

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