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The MLS Landscape is Changing, Will Orlando City Change With It?
And you better start swimmin’
Or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’ – Bob Dylan
Orlando City doesn’t have far to sink to get to the bottom of Major League Soccer. The team narrowly missed the playoffs in its inaugural year and has since spent 2015 to 2018 on a downward trajectory, with a slight improvement in 2019. While great strides were made defensively last season, the offense went backward and now the club moves forward without its best defender after the departure of Lamine Sané.
And now there are more troubling signs around the league as smaller market teams have recognized that they can’t compete for a playoff spot, let alone a championship, unless they start digging into their bank accounts. Estimates are that Sporting Kansas City has paid around a $10 million transfer fee to secure the services of Mexican striker Alan Pulido. Reports out of Vancouver suggest that the Whitecaps are forking over at least $5 million (and possibly north of $6 million) to buy Lucas Cavallini.
This is a sea change in spending for MLS small market clubs. Sporting Kansas City, like Orlando City, finished 11th in its conference last season. Vancouver finished 12th. SKC’s investment in Pulido isn’t fully known yet but it is believed to be between the ninth- and 12th-highest transfer fee in league history. A look down the list of the highest transfer fees linked above turns up the words “Atlanta,” “Toronto,” “Seattle,” and “Los Angeles” a lot. It’s not a surprise that those are the teams in the running for the championship year after year.
Spending big is not something Orlando City has done much of in the past. Sure, the Lions have invested in a single big-money player just about every year. Kaká was the league’s most expensive player for a while and Nani doesn’t come cheap at just under $2.5 million per year. Additionally, Orlando uses its DP slots, and we’ve talked at great length in the past at how those have been squandered. But salaries are one thing and big transfer fees are another. Nani came to Orlando on a free transfer, meaning there was no up-front money just to buy the player’s rights. He’s not a player in his ascendancy, although he’s still putting up MLS DP-like numbers for his role.
Big-spending clubs, like the two clubs in Los Angeles, Atlanta, Toronto, etc., have not shied away from spending just to get a player’s rights. As such, they reap the rewards those kinds of players bring with them, riding high in the standings and competing for trophies. If Flavio Augusta da Silva isn’t willing (or able) to keep up with them, he’ll now need to at least try to keep up with what teams like Vancouver and SKC are doing, or else risk the Lions falling even further behind.
To be sure, there are more economical ways of building a team, and Luiz Muzzi has already shown the ability to find good players on a budget in his short time with Orlando City. But this recent willingness by small market teams to spend record money on transfer fees shows a new escalation in the MLS 3.0 arms race. Will the Lions be able to keep up just by signing young, inexpensive players and developing them? Probably not, because the moment they develop into something special, bigger clubs in Europe will come calling to buy them away and the process will start all over again. Developing Homegrown Players will help, and the Lions are embracing that at the moment.
It’s not impossible to build a team of bargains into a competitor, but the odds are certainly stacked against that method. Economics generally dictate that better players make more money and sports history shows that spending on better players generally yields better results in the win-loss column — not always, but generally. One needs look no further than the final four teams in the 2019 MLS Cup playoffs to see that. Seattle, Toronto, Atlanta, and LAFC were four of the five highest spending teams this past year. The only failure at the top was the Chicago Fire, who spent the third most in MLS. Spending money can’t guarantee success but it sure can stack the deck in your favor.
Conversely, the lowest five teams in spending saw the New York Red Bulls and FC Dallas reach the postseason, with Houston, Colorado, and Vancouver all failing to get to the playoffs. Red Bulls have a structure and system unlike any other in MLS, and so they’re a bit of an outlier. Dallas, which has a terrific academy system, built its team the way Orlando City is now trying to do, but was knocked out in the first round after squeaking into the last playoff spot in the Western Conference.
Orlando spent about $3.8 million more than Dallas last year, give or take a bit. (It’s difficult to know how much of a player’s salary was picked up by the team from players who went out on loan for all or part of the season.) The club’s final payroll was $12,413,226.33, according to the MLSPA September salary release. Obviously there were some bad investments in there, including more than a million for little-used Sacha Kljestan.
The champion Sounders had 13 players making more than $500,000 per year in 2019. Orlando had seven. The Lions must be more shrewd with the use of DP slots and allocation money, which is something we’ve all known for some time, and you don’t dig out from under bad contracts overnight. The Lions jettisoned three players — Sané, Kljestan, and Cristian Higuita — who were in the over-$500,000 bucket, along with Will Johnson, who was just under that mark. Muzzi also just re-signed Uri Rosell, who was a bit north of that number before his option year was declined, but could now be below — we’ll have to wait until the next salary release by the MLSPA to find out for sure.
The Lions have plenty of cap room to play with now. They should be flush with allocation money. But will they also be willing to spend millions up front, just to get players’ rights before a guy even takes the field? SKC and Vancouver are now showing a willingness to do that. While one big-money addition won’t guarantee those teams success, they’ve at least acknowledged that the playoffs won’t be getting much closer without some greater investment. Orlando almost certainly must start to approximate following suit or risk falling even further off the pace.
The battle outside ragin’
Will soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’
Orlando City
Orlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Preview, How to Watch, TV Info, Live Stream, Lineups, Match Thread, and More
Orlando City restarts its 2026 MLS campaign late tonight out west at San Jose.
Welcome to your match thread for a late night midweek matchup tonight between Orlando City (4-9-2, 14 points) and the San Jose Earthquakes (10-3-2, 32 points) at PayPal Park (10:30 p.m., Apple TV). This is the only scheduled meeting between the teams in 2026 and the first time the teams have met since 2024.
Here’s what you need to know ahead of tonight’s match.
History
Orlando City is 3-1-3 in the previous seven MLS meetings with the Quakes since the club joined Major League Soccer in 2015. The Lions got their only away win in the series in the last meeting and enter tonight 1-1-2 on the road against San Jose.
The teams last met on May 18, 2024, with Jack Lynn coming off the bench to score the game’s only goal. Lynn’s strike in the 89th minute broke the scoreless deadlock and lifted the Lions to a 1-0 victory.
The teams met in Orlando most recently way back on June 22, 2021, with the Lions beating the Quakes down, 5-0. Orlando got things started with an early penalty kick goal by Nani, followed by braces from Benji Michel and Daryl Dike to easily put the game away. The lasting memory from the game is Michel’s celebratory dance wearing a cowboy hat that came out of the stands.
Prior to that Orlando City romp, the last time the teams met was on Aug. 31, 2019 when the Lions got freight trained 3-0 at Avaya Stadium, giving the Quakes their first win in the series. San Jose’s offense came via a Chris Wondolowski brace and an early opening goal by Magnus Eriksson. Orlando looked flat and weary out of the gate.
The Lions were victorious in Exploria Stadium in the 2018 meeting on April 21, a 3-2 Orlando win. It was the first win in the series for either side after three straight draws. Chris Mueller, Sacha Kljestan, and Dom Dwyer gave the Lions a 3-0 lead before Florian Jungwirth pulled two back in the game’s late stages.
The Lions led all of the first three matches in the second half only to see San Jose pull level, with two of those tying goals coming late. In the 2017 meeting, Carlos Rivas finally broke the scoreless tie and gave Orlando City the lead in the 81st minute, but Wondolowski spoiled the Lions’ night with an equalizer two minutes later as the teams drew at Avaya Stadium, 1-1.
In 2016, the Lions were gut-punched in the 94th minute in an emotional match that ended in a 2-2 draw. It was the first home match following the Pulse nightclub tragedy and what appeared to be a storybook ending to a cathartic win turned sour on a last-gasp equalizer by Shea Salinas. Seb Hines — now the Orlando Pride’s head coach — opened the scoring for Orlando, only to see Chad Barrett tie it up. Julio Baptista restored the lead in stoppage time, but Salinas ruined everything.
The two teams also drew in the first meeting, a 1-1 affair at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with the Lions down to 10 men after Brek Shea was sent off in the first half. Kaká and Wondolowski each scored from the penalty spot four minutes apart in that initial meeting.
Overview
The teams meet tonight to get their post-World Cup portion of the season started. Orlando City has been terrible on the road all season long, keeping only one MLS opponent under two goals all year away from home and allowing five goals twice (at New York City FC and Nashville) and six goals twice (at LAFC and in the team’s most recent match away at FC Cincinnati just before the break).
Orlando City is a putrid 1-6-1 on the road this season, and now the Lions must face the Western Conference co-leaders tonight before coming home to face Supporters’ Shield-leading Nashville SC at home on Saturday. They’ll have to play at least tonight’s game without Martin Ojeda, who is out with a thigh injury sustained some time between his first-half goal a week ago in a friendly against FC Dallas and the time the availability report dropped on Tuesday.
But it isn’t all bad news for the Lions, who should have both Antoine Griezmann and Dike in the lineup. Griezmann was the club’s highly prized and widely publicized summer Designated Player signing, while Dike’s return to Orlando came together more recently, following his departure from West Bromwich Albion. They’ll help the club’s offense, but the attack hasn’t been the issue in 2026 — it’s been the historically porous defense, which is on pace to shatter the MLS record for goals conceded.
Meanwhile, San Jose is one of the first half of the season’s biggest surprises, as the Quakes have been outstanding in 2026. Scoring 34 goals while conceding just 15, San Jose is among the league leaders in goals scored (tied for third), goals conceded (third), and goal differential (+19, third).
The Earthquakes are 4-2-1 at home and are coming off a 3-1 road win at Portland in their last game prior to the World Cup break. San Jose boasts Golden Boot challenger Preston Judd, who leads the Quakes with 11 goals, adding two assists in his 15 appearances. Ousseni Bouda has chipped in five goals and three assists. Niko Tsakiris leads the team with seven assists to go along with his two goals, but he’s still recovering from a lower body injury and is not available tonight. However, the arrival of Timo Werner (four goals and five assists in just seven games) has truly elevated Bruce Arena’s Quakes, and he’ll need to be one of the main focal points for the Orlando defense.
To have any shot at taking something from this game, the Lions will need to play better road defense than they have all season. Orlando can score goals, but with Ojeda out, Griezmann will need to adapt quickly, and someone other than the team’s leading scorer will need to find the net.
The Lions will play without Ojeda (thigh), Joran Gerbet (knee), Nolan Miller (knee), Colin Guske (international duty), and Clovis Archage (international duty). In addition, Marco Pasalic may or may not have returned to the team after the World Cup. He was not in training Monday, although interim head coach Martin Perelman said he expected the Croatian back soon. The Earthquakes will be without Nonso Adimabua (lower body), former Lion Earl Edwards Jr. (lower body), DeJuan Jones (lower body), and Tsakiris (you guessed it, lower body…come on, San Jose).
Match Content
- Our most recent PawedCast includes our key matchups and score predictions for tonight’s match.
Official Lineups:
Orlando City (4-4-2)
Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau.
Defenders: Adrian Marin, David Brekalo, Robin Jansson, Griffin Dorsey.
Midfielders: Ivan Angulo, Braian Ojeda, Eduard Atuesta, Tiago.
Forwards: Justin Ellis, Antoine Griezmann.
Bench: Javier Otero, Bernardo Rhein, Tahir Reid-Brown, Zakaria Taifi, Iago, Wilder Cartagena, Luis Otavio, Harvey Sarajian, Tyrese Spicer
San Jose Earthquakes (4-2-3-1)
Goalkeeper: Angus Gunn.
Defenders: Jamar Ricketts, Reid Roberts, Daniel Munie, Benjamin Kikanovic.
Defensive Midfielders: Beau Lerouox, Ronaldo Vieira.
Attacking Midfielders: Timo Werner, Nick Fernandez, Ousseni Bouda.
Forwards: Preston Judd.
Bench: Jonathan Gonzalez, Dave Romney, Paul Marie, Jack Skahan, Jack Jasinski, Ian Harkes, Francesco Montali, Max Floriani, Darius Johnson.
Referees
REF: Elijio Arreguin.
AR1: Adam Wienckowski.
AR2: Mike Nickerson.
4TH: Timothy Ford.
VAR: Jose Carlos Rivero.
AVAR: TJ Zablocki.
How to Watch
Match Time: 10:30 p.m.
Venue: PayPal Park — San Jose, CA.
TV/Live Stream: Apple TV.
Radio: AM 810 FOX Sports Radio Orlando (English), Mega 97.1 FM (Spanish), Nossa Rádio 1160 AM-WRLZ (Portuguese).
Social Media: For rapid reaction and live updates, follow us on Bluesky Social at @themaneland.bsky.social or follow Orlando City’s official Twitter (@OrlandoCitySC) or Bluesky (@OrlandoCitySC) feed.
Enjoy the match. Go City!
Podcasts
PawedCast Episode 542: Tampa Bay Friendly, McGuire Traded, OCB Beats Cincinnati, and More
Lions maul the Rowdies in friendly action, OCB wins on the road, and it’s transfer season.
Orlando City welcomed I-4 Derby rival Tampa Bay to Inter&Co Stadium for a friendly match on Wednesday and then proceeded to bludgeon the Rowdies with a couple of hammers named Antoine Griezmann and Justin Ellis. The two attackers combined for a goal and four assists in a 6-0 beatdown of the team from the Gulf Coast, with five different Lions scoring and Griffin Dorsey forcing an own goal. We discuss Griezmann’s first minutes with Orlando City, what the team showed in its formation, and how good Justin Ellis’ vision is.
Oh, and it’s also transfer season now. Duncan McGuire is on his way out and Marco Pasalic reportedly will follow soon, while a new left back may be headed from Spain to Orlando.
Following all of that, we discuss Maxime Crepeau being added to the MLS All-Star Team and the announcement that he’ll participate in the 2026 MLS All-Star Skills Challenge.
Our mailbagbox asked us about which World Cup semifinalist players we’d want to join Orlando this season (if we could only pick one), and more. Remember, if there’s anything — and we do mean anything — you want us to address on the show, just ask us by tweeting it to us at @TheManeLand with the hashtag #AskTMLPC, or hitting us up on Bluesky Social with that same hashtag.
After the mailbagbox, we dive into OCB’s 2-1 road win at FC Cincinnati 2. It wasn’t the prettiest game by the Young Lions, but they managed to do enough to earn three points on the road, where they’ll stay to face Chattanooga on Saturday. We briefly preview that game.
Finally, Orlando City will be in Dallas Wednesday for the second of two friendlies leading up to the restart of the MLS season. It’s unlikely we’ll get a lot of details about that one, but we’ll see what happens. Maybe the FC Dallas folks will help us out.
Be sure to rate and review our show wherever you get your podcasts. Remember, we’ll read any five-star reviews we get on Apple Podcasts on the next show.
If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.
Here’s how No. 542 went down:
0:15 – Orlando City crushed the Rowdies, the transfer season is in full swing, plus: hey now, Crepeau’s an all-star.
28:50 – The mailbagbox is always good for a hypothetical scenario.
36:54 – The Young Lions slipped past Cincy and head to Chattanooga, while the senior Lions head to Dallas.
Podcasts
SkoPurp Soccer Episode 119: International Break, USWNT, Louisville Preview, and More
The Pride return from a long international break looking to get their first-ever road win against Racing Louisville.
It feels like months since the Orlando Pride last took the field, but the calendar says otherwise. If you believe calendars, it’s only been a little less than three weeks, but time moves strangely in the post-pandemic apocalyptic world.
Anyway, we don’t have a match to recap, so we touched on a couple of Pride players putting the ball in the net during the international break and chat a bit about the United States Women’s National Team’s three-game friendly series against Japan. Emma Hayes used a lot of players, and the team looked solid for two of the three matches, but the rotated middle game seemed a bit disjointed. Hayes has greatly expanded the player pool and will have plenty of options when the World Cup approaches.
Our mailbagbox had questions about a potential change in the NWSL schedule, as the league explores adopting the fall-to-spring slate, and opposition own goals. Remember, you can ask us anything by hitting us up on Twitter at either @TheManeLand or @SkoPurpSoccer and using the hashtag #AskSkoPurp. You can use that same hashtag and hit @TheManeLand.bsky.social up on Bluesky. Or you can visit our show page, scroll down, and fill out the handy form. We’d also appreciate any ratings or reviews you can leave wherever you get your podcasts, and if you do that on Apple Podcasts, we’ll find them easily and read them on the show.
After the mailbagbox, we turned our attention toward Friday’s late afternoon tussle with Racing Louisville in Kentucky. The Pride have never won on the road against Louisville, and it’s about high time they did. This match begins a congested push to the June World Cup break, and although Friday’s hosts aren’t high in the table, the Pride must be at their best to get a road result in this fixture. We look back at the series history, compare the two sides, provide our key matchups in the game, and make our final score predictions.
If you’d like to support our independent writing and podcasting efforts, we’d love to have you as a subscriber or donor over at our Buy Me a Coffee site.
Here’s how Episode 119 went down:
0:15 – We open the show with a little banter about the Pride in the international break and the USWNT’s series vs. Japan.
9:03 – The mailbagbox features questions via both eletronic mail and social media. We welcome all modes of delivery.
19:59 – The Pride travel to Louisville to face Racing. They’ve never won in Kentucky, but we inform them how to do so.
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