Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Philadelphia Union: Final Score 1-1 as Lions Win Group A
A draw thanks to Mauricio Pereyra was enough to see Orlando City finish at the top of Group A in the MLS is Back Tournament on goal differential.
Mauricio Pereyra’s first goal as a Lion erased a 1-0 deficit and helped Orlando City draw the Philadelphia Union 1-1 in the final Group A match of the MLS is Back Tournament at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex. Orlando City (2-1-2, 8 points, 2-0-1 in MLS is Back) finishes at the top of Group A by virtue of a slightly better goal differential than the Union (also 2-1-2, 8 points, 2-0-1 in MLS is Back).
Orlando ran its unbeaten streak to three straight (2-0-1) on a night when the Lions weren’t at their best but still did enough to feel they should have taken all three points. Orlando City is 3-4-5 against Philadelphia in league play and 3-5-5 against the Union in all competitions.
“Let me congratulate this group of players that has made a great effort today to bounce back, and even deserve to win it,” Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “We had another experience where we were down in the score and we bounced back quickly. That just tells us that the team has personality and desire and that made us feel very confident, playing against a very good team also well-coached, and very dynamic in the middle. We’ll take the point and to qualify as the first of the group is something to be proud of.”
Pareja didn’t have his full arsenal as Dom Dwyer experienced some tightness in his quad and was held out for precautionary reasons. The team instead went with a 4-4-2, moving Nani ostensibly up beside Tesho Akindele, although Nani had the green light to freelance and drop deeper as needed, per usual. Pedro Gallese started in goal behind the preferred back line of Joao Moutinho, Robin Jansson, Antonio Carlos, and Ruan. Uri Rosell and Junior Urso joined Pereyra and Chris Mueller in the midfield.
Jim Curtin went with the expected 4-1-2-1-2 (or 4-4-2 diamond) lineup, with Andre Blake in goal; Kai Wagner, Mark McKenzie, Jack Elliott, and Ray Gaddis on the back line; Warren Creavalle — in for the suspended Jose Martinez — Alejandro Bedoya, Jamiro Monteiro, and Brenden Aaronson in the midfield; and Kacper Przybylko and Sergio Santos up top.
Urso had a couple of early opportunities but hit one weakly at Blake and fired the other wide of the left post. The latter was a screamer.
Unfortunately, after a bright start to the match, Urso picked up a knock at a quarter of an hour and left the match. At the time, he was a perfect five-for-five passing with a recovery and an interception in what had been to that point his best play of the tournament. After playing a man down for a few minutes, Sebas Mendez came on to replace him in the 19th minute.
Both teams sent in a few crosses for the next several minutes before Nani finally had a look at goal, but fired right at Blake from outside the area in the 27th minute. Two minutes later, Orlando should have scored. Pereyra found Akindele on the right but the Canadian fired and Blake parried it away. The better play would have been a return pass to Pereyra, who was all alone in front of goal for a tap-in, but it’s hard to fault a striker for having a go from that range when he hasn’t had a good look at goal yet.
Each team squandered a good free kick opportunity, with Nani and Monteiro trading weak bouncers at the keeper. Philadelphia’s best opportunity of the half came just before stoppage time, when Santos was denied by a decent Pedro Gallese save. Santos retrieved the ball and appeared to foul Ruan while doing so but the referee saw nothing wrong and Santos crossed for Aaronson, who should have scored but fired about a foot wide.
The whistle blew on a somewhat unsatisfying half for both teams. Orlando lacked sharpness in the opening 45 minutes. Some of that was due to Philadelphia, but Nani, Mueller, and Ruan were a bit off, and Mendez struggled to get into the game, although he settled in a bit toward the end of the period. Urso’s strong start illustrated the difference between the team before and after his injury.
The Union had more shots (8-5) but Orlando got more on target (4-2). Possession was almost evenly split, with Philly holding a slim edge (50.7%) and the Union passed a bit more crisply (83%-80%).
Philadelphia started the second half on the front foot, getting lots of the ball early. Orlando managed to finally break the pressure and Nani fired well off target in the 49th minute. Just seconds later, Mueller sent Mendez in alone but he went for power rather than a chip over the onrushing Blake or trying to slot it around him and it was saved. Mueller followed but Blake got there just after Mueller did and nothing came of it as the Money Badger tried to finesse around him.
Orlando had several crosses that were just a little bit off in the second half. Moutinho had one in the 60th that only needed a touch from Akindele or Mueller but his pass had too much spice and skipped out in front of both of them. Ruan did the same to Akindele in the 64th in a 2-v-1 situation in front of Blake on what should have been a goal.
Antonio Carlos nearly got his first MLS goal in the 66th as he blasted a header on goal off a corner kick cross. Blake got a touch on the ball and then it crashed off the crossbar.
Two minutes after Carlos nearly opened the scoring, the Union took the lead against the run of play. Philadelphia ended up with numbers on the right side and second-half sub Ilsinho got the ball on the right side. From a severe angle he sent a perfect shot off the inside of the far post and in to make it 1-0 in the 68th minute. The Lions have still scored first only once in 2020.
Philadelphia’s lead didn’t last long. Pereyra sent the ball out wide to the left for Nani, who surveyed the scene in front of goal and sent in a perfect ball back to Pereyra at the near post. The Uruguayan nodded home his first MLS goal to level things in the 70th minute.
“I think we didn’t deserve this goal in our net,” Pereyra said of Ilsinho’s strike. “But after we conceded that goal we started with the same energy that we started the second half and had a good combination. And then, when Nani gets the ball, something different can happen and I went inside the box feeling that this was coming for me, and it was like that, so I’m very happy to score my first goal in Orlando.”
From that point on the teams exchanged a couple of crosses through the box and some near connections but nothing came of it and the match finished at 1-1. There was a late handball scare deep in stoppage as a ball came back at Ruan quickly but the referee blew the final whistle and replays weren’t conclusive.
The Union ended up with more shots (12-10) but took some of those from downtown Orlando. The Lions got more of their efforts on target (7-4). Orlando took over the possession battle, keeping 53.7% of the ball for the game, and the passing got a bit closer, with the Union holding an 83%-82% advantage in accuracy. The Lions created more and seemed to have plenty of opportunities to put two or three in the net but Blake was outstanding when he had to be and a few crosses were hit just a bit too hard or too far in front of the attacking line.
Rosell talked about how the team was able to keep the Union’s big names — Przybylko and Aaronson — mostly quiet on the night.
“Yeah, honestly, before the game, we knew that they were very good players. They know what they were doing, and they had success in the last games. So we really focused on ourselves first, but then keeping an eye on them and and putting the work in,” he said. “At the end, when you are well organized and everybody gives their best and they know their role, things come through.”
Now we wait to see who Orlando will play on Saturday in the Round of 16. It could be Atlanta.
Opinion
The Case for Starting Luis Muriel Against Atlanta
Muriel’s game is tailor made to help Orlando get the result in what will likely be a tight contest.
For the second season in a row, Orlando City finds itself hosting a match in the Eastern Conference semifinals. It was a scenario that was far less likely this year, with the Lions watching as all three seeds above them crashed out in the first round, leaving OCSC as the highest-seeded team still standing in the East. Last year’s semifinal match didn’t go so well, with 10-man Orlando falling to the eventual champion Columbus Crew in extra time. So, how do the Lions avoid that fate this year and advance to the Eastern Conference final for the first time?
For starters, they can succeed on each of Dave Rohe’s three keys to victory! I’d like to make an addition though, and campaign for Oscar Pareja to start Luis Muriel instead of Ivan Angulo. To be clear, it’s not that I have an axe to grind against Angulo, as he’s largely ranged from solid to good when starting out on the left wing. For my money though, this match is tailor made for Muriel and giving him the start could help Orlando get through to the next round without needing to resort to extra time or penalties.
It’s not unreasonable to expect Sunday’s game to play out in a similar manner to Orlando’s 2-1 Decision Day loss to Atlanta, in which the visitors had 34% of the ball to OCSC’s 66%. True, part of that disparity was down to Atlanta’s 2-0 lead after 16 minutes, which allowed the visitors to sit back, bunker, and protect what they had. Even if the game had remained scoreless for longer though, Atlanta probably would likely have ceded possession anyway and looked to play defensively and hit on the counter. They rolled out a compact 4-2-3-1 in that game, but deployed a 3-5-2 in their last two games against Miami, and they might do so again after its effectiveness.
With Orlando likely to have the lion’s share (hehe) of the ball, and Atlanta sitting deep, there figures to be less room for Angulo to deploy his electric pace. OCSC will probably need to make things happen in the “half-court,” with an emphasis on moving the ball quickly, making clever runs, and finding those runs with creative and accurate passes.
Enter Luis Muriel. The Colombian Designated Player had a slow start to life with Orlando City but has come on strong in recent months, excelling in a super sub role and frequently making an impact in games off the bench. In 56 minutes against Charlotte in Game 3, he completed two dribbles, played one key pass and one through ball, and took three shots, with one on target, one off target, and one blocked. He doesn’t offer Angulo’s speed, but he has maybe the best vision and range of passing of anyone on the team, he’s an outstanding dribbler, and he’s a calm and capable finisher.
He hasn’t been asked to do a ton of traditional striker work during his resurgence, but Muriel has excelled at setting up teammates and creating chances, as evidenced by the litany of key passes littering his stat sheet. Those attributes could be hugely important in breaking Atlanta down, and with two key passes and two completed dribbles against them in just 22 minutes on Decision Day, he’s already proven he can be effective against the Five Stripes.
Another thing that could help the Lions in starting Muriel, is that it would almost certainly take Atlanta by surprise. Oscar Pareja isn’t exactly known for tweaking his lineup on a game-to-game basis, vastly preferring to find an XI that works and stick with it religiously. As long as everyone’s healthy, that lineup has featured Angulo starting with Muriel coming off the bench, and flipping the script would certainly be an unexpected variation that Atlanta might not be expecting. At this level, teams are good enough to adjust on short notice, but you also take every possible edge that you can find, and a lineup shift could be exactly that.
In short, as much as I like Angulo, I think Muriel should get the call in his place on Sunday. The veteran’s combination of vision, passing ability, and dribbling makes him uniquely suited to help unlock defenses, which will be crucial in a game where Orlando City is likely to dominate possession. I don’t think it’s likely to happen given Papi’s consistency with his lineups, but the unexpected move could give the Lions the edge they’re looking for. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 11/22/24
Emily Sams wins Defender of the Year, Orlando City’s turnaround, Barbra Banda nominated for African Woman Player of the Year, and more.
Happy Friday! Beyond working and catching some soccer here and there, I don’t have many plans for the weekend. I’m also hoping to find some time to trial some cranberry and brie bites I’m trying to perfect before Thanksgiving next week. For now though, let’s jump right into today’s links from around the soccer world!
Emily Sams Awarded NWSL Defender of the Year
The Orlando Pride’s Emily Sams was named 2024 NWSL Defender of the Year after a fantastic season. The Pride only conceded 20 goals in a record-breaking season, and Sams played in all 13 of the team’s shutouts. Sams was one of the most impactful players for the Pride this year and had 163 recoveries, 76 clearances, and 16 blocks. She’s the first Pride player to win the award and it’s great to see her receive some deserved recognition in her second year in Orlando.
Analyzing Orlando City’s Revitalization
It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for the Lions to say the least. There were serious concerns over whether or not the Lions would even make the playoffs back in June and now they find themselves as the highest remaining seed in the Eastern Conference this postseason. Facundo Torres’ excellent run of play is a major reason behind the club’s turnaround, but the buy-in from all of Orlando’s attackers has helped create a dynamic and unselfish offense. Although expectations are rising once more for the Lions, Executive Vice President of Soccer Operations and General Manager Luiz Muzzi spoke on how the team is focused on Sunday’s playoff match.
“There’s only one team that matters: Atlanta United,” Muzzi said. “The easiest way to lose a game is to look ahead. I’ll say we didn’t expect to be playing at home, but it’s welcomed. We’re focused on Atlanta, they’re playing great. They have a lot of confidence and momentum. It doesn’t matter they’re the No. 9 seed because they’re not playing like the No. 9 seed.”
Barbra Banda Up For African Woman Player of the Year
Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda was one of 10 players nominated for this year’s African Woman Player of the Year award. The 24-year-old has done well for both club and country this year. She scored 13 goals in her first regular season with the Pride and has three goals so far in the playoffs. Banda also had a hat trick for Zambia in the Summer Olympics. She’s joined by fellow NWSL players Temwa Chawinga and Racheal Kundananji on the list of nominees. Bay FC striker Asisat Oshoala, who has won the award in five of the past six years, was not nominated for the first time in a decade. The nomination list will be trimmed to a three-player shortlist before the winner is announced on Dec. 16 in Morocco.
Croix Bethune Named NWSL Midfielder of the Year
Washington Spirit rookie Croix Bethune won NWSL Midfielder of the Year after recording 10 assists and five goals in 17 matches this season. A knee injury cut her season short in September, but she still tied Tobin Heath’s record for the most assists in a season. Bethune gave plenty of NWSL teams headaches this year and also won Rookie of the Year earlier this week. She’s the first player to ever receive NWSL Midfielder of the Year and she beat out the Pride’s Marta, the North Carolina Courage’s Ashley Sanchez, and Kansas City Current duo Lo’eau LaBonta and Vanessa DiBernardo.
Eastern Conference Clubs Making Moves
FC Cincinnati officially signed striker Kevin Denkey from Cercle Brugge on a deal that will last through 2028. The 23-year-old joins as a Designated Player on a reported $16.2 million transfer, which would be a league record. He won the Golden Boot in Belgium last year after scoring 27 goals and should give Cincinnati some considerable firepower next year.
Elsewhere in the league, CF Montreal declined the option on Josef Martinez’s contract, meaning the Venezuelan forward will be a free agent once again. The 31-year-old led Montreal with 11 goals this season and we’ll see where he winds up next. Charlotte FC did not trigger the purchase option on Pep Biel’s loan, opening up a Designated Player spot. Former Lion Junior Urso’s contract option was also declined by Charlotte. The Philadelphia Union signed defender Olivier Mbaizo to a contract extension that will keep him with the club through 2026, with options for 2027 and 2028 as well.
Free Kicks
- In preparation for the 2026 World Cup, FIFA named 26 new options across the country as “base camps” for participating teams to train and rest. Orlando was included, with OCSC’s training grounds at Osceola Heritage Park pitched alongside the Lake Nona Wave Hotel.
- ESPN‘s Jeff Kassouf dove into how the NWSL stacks up to the biggest sports leagues in the U.S. Saturday’s NWSL Championship between the Pride and Spirit should showcase just how entertaining the league is to plenty of viewers.
- Pep Guardiola will stick around as Manchester City’s manager for a couple more years after signing a two-year contract extension with the club. His contract was set to expire at the end of this season.
- Here’s a cool breakdown of the seven amateur teams that have qualified for the 2025 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup so far. None are from Florida, but there are some great logos to check out if you’re looking for a team to root for in the early rounds next year. Debutants Southern Indiana FC and the Virginia Dream are my personal favorites of the bunch.
- The draw for the 2025 Women’s Africa Cup of Nations will take place today. Zambia is in the second pot, meaning it will be put in a group of four that will include one of Nigeria, South Africa, or Morocco. The tournament itself will be in July of next year.
- Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City all clinched a spot in the Women’s Champions League quarterfinals with two games still left to play.
That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend. Go Orlando!
Orlando City
How Orlando City’s Offense Stacks Up Against What Atlanta Does Defensively
How Orlando City has performed against teams playing with three or four defenders, and how that may influence the playoff game against Atlanta United.
The most famous quote about real estate is that “there are three things that matter in property: location, location, location.” Soccer coaches also like to think in threes, especially when it comes to points, but for a soccer coach, the three things that matter might be the rhyming triplet “formation, formation, formation,” as that is where they will have the biggest influence on every game that their team plays.
Throughout his tenure as head coach, Óscar Pareja has preferred to use a 4-2-3-1 as his formation (fbref.com’s lineup data shows that the Lions primarily played a 4-2-3-1 in 65% of their MLS matches this season, and 79% of their MLS matches during the last three seasons). The Lions have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 during each of their last 14 games, and my confidence level is strong to quite strong (can you believe Meet the Parents came out 24 years ago?) that they will do so once again on Sunday when they host Atlanta United.
Atlanta United also prefers to deploy a 4-2-3-1, but was less consistent than Orlando City this season during MLS play, as evidenced by the chart below that shows how Atlanta lined up this season:
I am relying on the coders at Opta for their evaluation of the formation, as I do not watch a lot of Atlanta United matches (sounds terrible), but though Atlanta primarily played with four defenders in more than two-thirds of its matches, during the last two matches it played a 3-5-2, the only two matches all season in which interim coach Rob Valentino rolled out that formation. I suspect that the formation change was related partially to playing Inter Miami and trying to defend the Herons’ dynamic offense and partially due to an injury suffered by defender Brooks Lennon in the first game of that series. So, while Atlanta primarily played four in the back for most of the season, there is a good chance it will roll with what worked against Florida’s second-best MLS team when it plays Florida’s best MLS team this weekend.
Now, if you want to read more about Atlanta, then you can read our match preview, which will drop Sunday morning, but I want to look at how Orlando did against teams that play similar styles. Looking only at MLS games, the table below shows how Orlando City performed against different back line structures this season (the left side is how the Lions’ opponents lined up, the right side is how Orlando City performed against opponents in those formations):
Orlando City earned slightly more points per game — the stat that matters most — against teams that played four in the back, but the Lions had a better average goal differential when teams played three in the back. Atlanta will likely deploy one of those two formations. In both games against Orlando City this season, Sunday’s visitors went with a 4-2-3-1, but as mentioned earlier, they used three in the back in each of their last two matches, so it really could be either.
Soccer is not like baseball, where players primarily stay in the same spot throughout the game, so some of these stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, as players are not always rigidly in the same position throughout a match. A team may also primarily play with four in the back but switch to three when chasing a game, or five when trying to protect against a late goal.
That said, using the data around Orlando City’s opponents’ general formations, here are the attacking groups who played the most frequently against four defenders during the 24 MLS games where Opta coded the opponents as using a defensive group of four:
It is a little ominous that the main starting group, shown in row one, has played 666 MLS minutes against back lines of four this season, but do I like that green goal differential of +8 in those minutes, which is a strong +1.08 per 90 minutes. I like that goal differential more than I like all the things that Cardi B, Bad Bunny, and J Balvin like on their song that is creatively named “I Like It.” Coincidentally, when people ask me what I think about that song, I say, “I like it.” I am very creative.
If we look at the lineups that Orlando City has used against back lines of three defenders then there are some pretty major differences in personnel groupings, but it must be noted that more than half of the games against teams playing three in the back came early in the season, when Ramiro Enrique was unavailable to play. Enrique, my presumed starter at striker, has played fewer than three games’ worth of minutes (265 total) against back lines of three this season, and only 28 minutes with the main starting group, which ranks 13th among all the attacking lineups for minutes played against three defenders. That group scored one goal in their 28 minutes together though, for a robust 3.21 goals-scored-per-90-minutes average.
While the team as a whole has been successful against three-man back lines, I do not expect any of the lineups shown in the table below to play more than a few minutes together this weekend, though the first row and the last row are strong groups and had a lot of success.
I am sure that all week long the Orlando City coaching staff has been going back and forth on whether it is more likely that Atlanta reverts to its most commonly used four in the back, or if the Five Stripes try for three wins in a row with three in the back. I would prefer that Atlanta plays with zero defenders and goalkeeper Brad Guzan wears a blindfold, but I think that is unlikely to be the case.
Even though Atlanta defeated Orlando City both times while in a 4-2-3-1, based on available personnel and recent results, I believe that the team will come out in a 3-5-2 in Inter&Co Stadium in the conference semifinal. Good things come in threes, and Orlando City’s best offensive production this season has been against three defenders, so I am going to be hoping that this continues, and in the third game against Atlanta the Lions grab the three points. Three’s company!
Well, it is a playoff game, so there are no actual points at stake, but you know what I meant.
Vamos Orlando!
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