Orlando City
Orlando City vs. Los Angeles FC: Final Score 1-1 as the Lions Go Through on Penalties
Nani saw a penalty in regulation saved but his spot kick in the shootout sent Orlando into the semifinals.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/MLSIsBack.jpg)
Nani left a second-half penalty too close to the goalkeeper and squandered a great chance to put Orlando City ahead. But the captain redeemed himself in a penalty shootout after Joao Moutinho’s 90th-minute goal sent the match to spot kicks. Orlando out-lasted LAFC 5-4 in the shootout to advance to the semifinals after a 1-1 draw in the MLS is Back Tournament at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex.
Shortly after Nani’s miss in regulation, Bradley Wright-Phillips put LAFC on top. As time wound down, it looked like the Lions would bow out of the tournament after a strong showing against perhaps the league’s best team, despite outplaying LAFC for much of the night. But Orlando City went five for five from the spot and shocked the visitors from Los Angeles.
Orlando officially gets a draw against LAFC, but the end result is LAFC is going home and the Lions are moving on to the semifinals.
“We are very proud of the group of players who have done an excellent job today and stayed in the game that needed a lot of heart and desire and determination,” Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the match. “I think they accomplished that in those 90-plus minutes, and the game rewarded them, because they were the best team on the field. They were patient in the difficult moments. I want to highlight that as the heart of the team and the club.”
Pareja started the same lineup that beat Montreal last Saturday night, with goalkeeper Pedro Gallese behind a back line of Moutinho, Robin Jansson, Antonio Carlos, and Ruan. Uri Rosell and Sebas Mendez handled the central midfield behind an attacking line of Nani, Mauricio Pereyra, and Chris Mueller, with Tesho Akindele up top.
Orlando City played a cautious game to start, keeping LAFC from getting into a rhythm and looking for opportunities to get in behind. The Lions did well to break LAFC’s press and hold the ball for prolonged spells, but things generally broke down in the final third, as has been the case the last few games.
Nani went for goal on a free kick from long range nine minutes in but drilled his shot right at LAFC goalkeeper Kenneth Vermeer. The captain had a much more advantageous position in the 15th minute just at the left corner of the box but he squirted his shot off to the side and it sailed wide to the left.
Diego Palacios sent a dangerous ball skipping through Gallese’s six-yard box in the 20th minute but nobody from LAFC was anywhere near the back post and the ball skipped out for a goal kick.
Carlos got his head to a Pereyra corner kick cross in the 27th minute but didn’t get much power on it due to knocking it off an opponent’s head, and Vermeer was able to tip it over the bar. That began a good spell of Orlando pressure but both Ruan and Nani overcooked crosses at the top of the six and the Lions couldn’t get anyone to them.
Wright-Phillips appeared to open the scoring for LAFC in the 32nd minute as a ball from Brian Rodriguez deflected off Ruan and fell perfectly for BWP to tap in. However, Rodriguez was half a step offside in the buildup, and Joseph Dickerson went over to take a look, waving off the goal after getting a look at the replay.
Nani blazed a shot from the left in the 38th minute but Vermeer was well positioned to make the save.
LAFC ended the half with its first truly prolonged possession of the half, earning a couple of corners and free kicks, but last year’s Shield winners didn’t manage to get a shot off, as the Lions defended well. The teams went to the break at 0-0. It was the first time in the tournament that LAFC went to the break without a goal on the board. Orlando City led in shots (7-0), shots on target (3-0), possession (52.1%) and passing accuracy (77%-73%).
Mueller, who had been grimacing and clutching his shoulder since suffering an early foul, was subbed off at halftime and replaced by Benji Michel. It appeared that the training staff put Mueller in some kind of sling just before the second half started. Pareja said after the match that he thinks Mueller and Jansson — who left later in the match — will be OK but he can’t be sure until they’re more thoroughly examined by the team’s physicians.
Orlando picked up more or less where it left off in the first half, staying organized and keeping the ball moving to avoid giving LAFC transition opportunities. The Lions generated a good chance in the 53rd minute when Rosell blasted a rocket just over the bar from the left corner of the penalty area after a short corner kick was played to Pereyra.
Two minutes later, Ruan came down the right side and got in behind Palacios, who tried a desperation tackle but tripped up the Brazilian fullback in the area. Dickerson pointed to the spot and it appeared Orlando would finally get its breakthrough. Nani stepped up to take the penalty and hit it hard but left it too close to Vermeer, who guessed the right way and had a comfortable save to keep the game at 0-0 in the 57th minute.
“When I had the chance to score the first penalty, I think it was a fantastic moment for the goalkeeper and he had a great save,” Nani said.
The miss was costly. Mendez did what Orlando had avoided most of the night and turned the ball over in his defensive third, getting muscled off the ball by Diego Rossi. The LAFC star took the ball down the right side and fizzed a cross past Jansson to Wright-Phillips, who managed to beat Carlos to the ball. Wright-Phillips made no mistake from point-blank range and L.A. scored on its first shot of the match.
Orlando opened up a bit after the goal and it nearly cost the Lions immediately. Gallese was forced to make a huge kick save in the 62nd minute to keep Rossi from doubling the lead.
The Lions nearly pulled one back two minutes later, when Nani’s cross deflected off of Eddie Segura and headed toward the net. Vermeer got down to keep the ball out again.
Orlando kept coming but gave up some chances as a result of having to chase a goal. Nani came tantalizingly close to equalizing in the 73rd minute, cutting left to right and curling a shot that skipped just inches wide of the right post.
Ruan fell asleep on a throw-in and it nearly cost Orlando. Rossi quickly sped past Carlos and shot from a tight angle. Gallese made the stop, but the rebound came right back to Rossi. Gallese made a second save to keep the Lions in it, living up to his nickname, “The Octopus.”
As the game wound down, LAFC seemed more likely to put the game away than Orlando did to tie things up. Substitute Jordan Harvey forced a good save from Gallese in the 88th minute and El Pulpo again kept his team alive.
The Cardiac Cats showed up in the 90th minute. Ruan came down the right and slid a pass in for substitute Santiago Patino in front of goal but Tristan Blackmon made a sliding block to deny a goal, giving Orlando a corner kick. The Lions made the most of the opportunity.
Nani whipped in the corner from the right and Moutinho beat Harvey to the back post ball, heading it home to score against his former club. It was his first goal for Orlando City and the game was tied 1-1 with five minutes of stoppage time remaining.
“I was in charge of going to the back post on our attacking set pieces — corners and free kicks,” Moutinho said. “So, I knew I had some space there. We had already took, I think, two or three corners, and I saw that I had the chance to to get the ball, and I got just a bit short. So yeah, I was expecting the ball to go there and I kept my eye on it, and I knew that the space was there. Yeah, it was a great ball, a great cross. And I was fast enough to get in front of the defender and just head it in.”
“I think we deserved at the end when we scored the goal, because of everything we put on the field,” said Nani, who picked up the assist.
Neither team got a quality chance in the added time but Michel did send a shot from the left corner of the box that just wouldn’t curl, sailing high and wide of the target. The final seconds ticked off and the match went straight to penalties.
Orlando had more shots (17-8), with each team getting five on target. The Lions held 52.2% of the possession and maintained their passing accuracy advantage (77%-72%). It was only fair after that performance for Orlando to have a chance to go through to the semifinals.
LAFC got to shoot first and Francisco Ginella narrowly beat Gallese, who got his fingertips to the shot but couldn’t keep it out. Pereyra stepped up and equalized for Orlando. Harvey shot second for L.A. but powered a rocket shot off the crossbar, giving the Lions the advantage.
Substitute Kyle Smith scored beautifully into the side netting to push Orlando out front, but Rossi leveled the shootout at 2-2 on LAFC’s third shot. Moutinho hurt his old team again by scoring on the next Orlando penalty and Brian Rodriguez kept the pressure on the Lions by equalizing on the fourth L.A. kick. Carlos didn’t seem an obvious choice as Orlando City’s fourth shooter. Vermeer guessed correctly and got his hands to the shot but it had just enough power on it to slip through the goalkeeper’s grasp, making it 4-3. Latif Blessing tied the shootout again and it was down to Nani to make up for his earlier penalty.
The captain stepped up, took a stutter step, and coolly won the shootout, sending Vermeer the wrong way.
That was it. Orlando had slain the MLS dragon and advanced to the MLS is Back semifinals. The lads were excited, to say the least.
“Pay attention (to) our team with good eyes, and give the respect of the football,” Nani said, when asked about Orlando City’s underdog status. “Because we’ve been working hard, and we want to continue to work hard just to play our football and try to improve. We know we are a team who are improving our football. But the respect on football is very important.
“We put more concentration, we put more determination, and the best team won the game.”
Orlando City will await the winner of the San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United. That quarterfinal matchup will take place tomorrow night at 8 p.m., with the winner facing the Lions next Thursday at 8 p.m.
Opinion
Martin Ojeda Can Further Build on an Improved 2024
Martin Ojeda has picked things up after a slow start to the season, but he has room to play even better.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/OCvMontreal-LeaguesCup-2024.07.26-29-1-scaled.jpg)
Argentinian attacking midfielder Martin Ojeda finished his maiden season in an Orlando City uniform with six goals and 10 assists. While 16 goal contributions in his first year in a new league with unfamiliar surroundings isn’t a terrible return, there was a widespread sense that he didn’t perform at the level the Lions needed from a Designated Player. He improved the deeper Orlando got into the year though, and coming into the 2024 season, a lot of the projections involving OCSC being one of the best teams in the league were predicated on him taking the next step and becoming a true force in Major League Soccer. So, has that happened?
The broad numbers say that it hasn’t. Through 27 appearances and 1,582 minutes, Ojeda has three goals and eight assists, compared to six goals and 10 assists in 34 appearances and 1,751 minutes in 2023. The Argentine still has time to eclipse his totals from last year, but barring a positively explosive run of form, it’ll take him more minutes to do so. For my money, it isn’t quite that simple though.
For one thing, Ojeda has shown improvement in two key areas: passing accuracy and key passes. His accuracy is up to 84% in 2024, while it was 79% last season. He’s also already eclipsed his total for key passes in 2023, currently sitting on 45, compared to the 42 he finished with in his debut season in purple. That suggests that not only is he passing the ball better, but he’s also putting it in more dangerous areas than previously. Some of that is to be expected, considering his shift into the center of the field to play the no. 10, but he’s still had to adapt to the new position, and he’s looked more and more comfortable as the year has continued.
Let’s talk about that positional change a little. The first few months of the season were ugly for just about everyone wearing an Orlando City jersey. Guys were hurt, off on international duty, or suspended, and many of the ones who could play were forced to do so in positions that weren’t natural for them. At various points throughout the early months of 2024, he found himself playing in the hole behind two strikers, as a deep-lying playmaker, deputizing at striker himself, or dropped from the starting XI entirely.
It was hard to argue with him coming off the bench, as he had just three assists in the 16 games prior to the LAFC match on June 15. He got his first league goal of the year in that match though, and in the 11 games since then, he’s recorded two goals and four assists. While not a staggering return, he’s trending in the right direction. Outside of the numbers, he looks capable of being able to produce at a higher level.
Saturday’s match against Nashville SC provided two specific instances which I found encouraging. The first was his assist on Ivan Angulo’s opening goal, specifically the way in which Ojeda created the goal.
Everything about that is fantastic. The anticipation and work rate to get into a position to intercept the wayward pass, the vision to see Angulo’s position, the quick decision to play the one-touch pass, and the execution to deliver that pass squarely on the money. One of the knocks on Ojeda in an OCSC shirt has been his decision making and execution in the final third, as at times he’s settled for long potshots or held onto the ball too long before trying to find a teammate. None of that was on display here, and the speed of thought, coupled with the execution, meant that Orlando grabbed an early lead.
Let’s then talk about the turn he executed at midfield during the buildup to Facundo Torres’ first goal. Ojeda receives the ball, takes a touch, neatly slips it through a defender’s legs, and then immediately drives hard at the Nashville defense before releasing the ball and finding Torres in space. It’s one moment of skill, but it’s something that happens when you have a guy who’s playing with confidence, and the fact that he then made the right pass at the right time makes it even better.
Those are the moments that we’ve started to see more of from the Designated Player as the year has gone on, and we’ll need to continue seeing more of if Orlando City wants to keep pushing up the table.
Ojeda has a chance to improve on his debut season and really make an impact for the Lions down the stretch. If he keeps playing with confidence, making the correct decisions, and executing in the way that he’s shown this summer, it should bode well for OCSC. Vamos Orlando!
Lion Links
Lion Links: 9/6/24
Amanda Allen loaned to Lexington SC, Alex Morgan announces retirement, USMNT prepares for Canada, and more.
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Happy Friday! I don’t have many plans this weekend, but am still looking forward to the next few days after a hectic week. When not working, I plan on finally starting Book of Night by Holly Black and figuring out how to make the most out of some dark rum I was gifted. For now though, let’s get to today’s links from around the soccer world!
Amanda Allen Loaned to Lexington SC
The Orlando Pride have loaned forward Amanda Allen to Lexington SC for the remainder of the USL Super League season. This decision should give Allen some valuable minutes, and the loan includes a right to recall as well. The 19-year-old has made 17 appearances since joining the Pride and had an assist in this year’s season opener. She is also currently in Colombia for the U-20 Women’s World Cup and her Canada squad takes on Brazil tonight. Hopefully she’s able to tear it up in the USL Super League’s inaugural season.
Alex Morgan Announces Her Retirement
American forward Alex Morgan has announced that she will retire after the San Diego Wave’s match on Sunday. She also announced that she is pregnant with her second child.
In her 224 international appearances, Morgan scored 123 goals and was a major force behind the USWNT’s back-to-back World Cup victories in 2015 and 2019. At the club level, she has played in every year of the NWSL’s existence and joined the Orlando Pride ahead of their inaugural season in 2016. In her six years in Orlando, Morgan recorded 23 goals and 10 assists in 69 appearances. Off the field, she’s been an outspoken supporter of equality and increased investment in women’s sports. We wish her the best of luck after a legendary career.
USMNT Faces Canada on Saturday
The United States Men’s National Team will take on Canada on Saturday in Kansas City in the first of two friendlies this month. Plenty has changed since the U.S. beat Canada in a penalty shootout in the 2023 Concacaf Gold Cup quarterfinals, particularly on the sideline. American coach Jesse Marsch was hired by Canada in May, while the U.S. will be led by Mikey Varas in an interim capacity amid buzz that Mauricio Pochettino will take over. The U.S. is without Giovanni Reyna for these friendlies due to injury, with Cade Cowell replacing him. Canada boasts a talented roster that includes a trio of former Lions in Cyle Larin, Richie Laryea, and Kamal Miller. After this match, the USMNT will take on New Zealand on Tuesday.
Keeping Up With International Soccer
San Marino may be one of the smallest countries in the world, but it arguably had the biggest win of a busy day of international soccer after beating Liechtenstein 1-0 for its first competitive victory. Elsewhere in the UEFA Nations League, Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal in Portugal’s 2-1 win over Croatia, while Spain was held to a scoreless draw in Serbia.
The third round of AFC World Cup qualifying is underway and Australia was upset 1-0 at home by Bahrain. Japan suffered no such setback though, dominating China in a 7-0 home win. Palestine drew 0-0 against South Korea in Seoul, which is no easy task.
CONMEBOL’s World Cup qualifiers have also resumed, and Bolivia came up with a huge 4-0 win in high altitude against Venezuela to move up the table. We may see some Lions in action today. Facundo Torres and Uruguay take on Paraguay, while Pedro Gallese, Wilder Cartagena, and Peru host Colombia.
Free Kicks
- FC Cincinnati’s Luca Orellano won MLS Goal of the Matchday for scoring from nearly 80 yards out to beat CF Montreal goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois. Orlando’s Facundo Torres placed second in the voting for his volleyed strike against Nashville SC.
- NJ/NY Gotham FC forward Ella Stevens was named NWSL Player of the Month after recording three goals and two assists in August.
- Argentina beat Brazil in blind soccer at the Paralympics, ending Brazil’s unbeaten streak that has lasted the past 20 years. France and Argentina will face off in the gold medal game on Saturday.
- Chris Jurasek has stepped down as Chelsea’s chief executive after a year in the position, with Jason Gannon replacing him.
That’s all I have for you today. I hope you all have a fantastic Friday and rest of your weekend!
Orlando City
Predictions for Orlando City’s Remaining Games of the 2024 Season
A deep dive into Orlando City’s final seven opponents and predictions on the Lions will do in those matchups.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CityReper83124-42.jpg)
We do not often write about National Football League Commissioner Roger Goodell at The Mane Land, but it is clear that the NFL was intentional about scheduling its season-opening weekend on a bye weekend for Orlando City, lest they lose all of their viewers to watching the team that you know and I know is the most exciting team to watch in all of sports. Fittingly for the city of Orlando, that excitement has been similar to a roller coaster this season, with ups and downs throughout, but with positive results in eight of the last 10 matches and wins in six of those matches, the team is clearly now heading in the right direction. The question remains whether the Lions will continue this climb or if they are just leading up to a sudden drop.
The Lions have seven games remaining on their regular-reason schedule, and at a quick glance it would appear like they have an excellent chance of continuing their hot streak and picking up points in more than half of those games. The next games in order are:
- Home vs. New England (1.04 points/game this season, 23rd in MLS)
- Home vs. Charlotte (1.41, 14th)
- At Columbus (1.96, second)
- At Dallas (1.22, 18th)
- Home vs. Philadelphia (1.11, 21st)
- At Cincinnati (1.89, fourth)
- Home vs. Atlanta (1.15, 20th)
As Orlando City is currently on a pace of 1.37 points per game, which is 15th in MLS, the Lions are playing four teams with lower points per game this season, one that is nearly the same, and two that have been performing better thus far this season.
In looking a little deeper at the seven remaining opponents, however, that schedule actually starts to look a little more difficult. If you look at the results from the most recent five matches instead of the season as a whole, Orlando City is playing four teams (Columbus, Dallas, Philadelphia, Atlanta) that are performing better recently than they had been for all games prior to their most recent five games. Two of those teams (Columbus and Dallas) are tied with Orlando City for second in MLS, with 10 points from their last five games. Unfortunately for Orlando City, both of those games against Columbus and Dallas will be on the road, but then again, Orlando’s road record of 6-3-5 (1.50 points/game) is better than its home record of 4-4-5 (1.23 points/game), so perhaps that is actually fortunate.
In looking even deeper, well, this chart will help show how all over the place Orlando City’s opponents really are when you look at their full season performance and also their more recent performance. (PPG = points per game and GDG = goal differential per game, which I needed to use instead of just plain goal differential, since the teams have not all played the same amount of games.)
New England’s -0.84 under Full Season GDG means that for the full season the Revolution have been losing games by an average of 0.84 goals per game.
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Last-7-Games-1024x257.png)
A few takeaways from this chart:
- I mentioned earlier that four teams are getting better results recently than they had been before the most recent five matches, but Dallas and Philadelphia are both playing significantly better than they had before, while Atlanta and Columbus are only playing slightly better than they had before.
- That said, Columbus was playing really well and is still playing really well, so that lack of improvement is relative, since the Crew did not have a lot of room to improve and yet they still did.
- Cincinnati is a stunning case, since the club had only lost four of its first 22 matches before losing four of its next five. And in those four losses, Cincinnati was outscored 9-2, leading to that big drop in GDG. Even with that swoon, Cincinnati is still ranked fourth overall in MLS and third in the Eastern Conference in points per game.
- Lastly, the section on the far right shows how each team has performed at home or on the road this season. The Match Location is for Orlando City, and the Opponent PPG shows, for example, that Philadelphia averages 1.31 points on the road this season. Orlando City has a better location-based PPG than its opponent in only three (New England, Charlotte, Atlanta) of the final seven games.
During each of the last three seasons, Orlando City earned at least 48 points during the regular season, and to make it four years in a row, the Lions will need to pick up at least 11 points from these final seven games. Here are the possible points the Lions can still earn, based on the number of wins they could have in those seven games:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Possible-7-Game-Results.png)
Just looking at the math, it is possible that they could get to 11 points with only two wins, but that would require no losses in the other five games, and I think that is asking a lot for a team that has lost 37% of its games thus far this season. I think the most likely way that Orlando City gets to at least 11 points is three wins and two draws or four wins and any number of draws, so we need to rank the final seven opponents based on the likelihood of an Orlando City win.
Before we do that, however, we should note that Orlando City’s only MLS loss in its last seven MLS matches was at Sporting Kansas City, a team that is among the hottest in MLS, with results in four of its last five matches. Even though SKC lost, it played some close matches with several of the top teams in the league (LA Galaxy, Real Salt Lake, Colorado, Vancouver) before that. Perhaps Orlando City’s loss away in Kansas City was not as bad as it seemed at the time.
No, that loss still stunk.
Coming back to our ranking, I got out my mathematics degree, shined it up, blew it a kiss, and then put together a very fancy (read: very simple) algorithm using standard deviations to determine the order of most to least likely for Orlando City to get a win, with a formula that went:
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Algorithm-1024x262.png)
That formula produced the list below, ranked in order of the upcoming schedule, accompanied by the team’s rank in order of likelihood of Orlando City getting a win (higher numbers mean Orlando City is more likely to win):
![](https://themaneland.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Rank-Order.png)
Whether this algorithm is correct or not, there is no doubt that the next two games for Orlando City are absolutely critical in both the made-up pursuit of a fourth straight season of at least 48 points and the more important push to secure a playoff berth and the opportunity to win MLS Cup. The next game (New England) is always the most important game, and after that, Orlando City could have an opportunity to pass Charlotte and move up the table, depending on how the Lions do against New England and how Charlotte does in its Sept. 14 match against CF Montréal. Both matches are at home, and despite their poor overall home record the Lions have three wins and one draw in their last four home MLS games. It would be quite nice to extend that to five wins in their last six before going on the road to Columbus.
I am going to predict that Orlando City does indeed win against New England and Charlotte, loses on the road at Columbus, ties at Dallas, ties Philadelphia, loses at Cincinnati, and closes with a home win over Atlanta for a final record of 3-2-2 during those last seven matches. The mathematically inclined will quickly recognize that a 3-2-2 record adds up to the 11 points the Lions needed to get to 48 points, but leaves them short of getting to 50 for the third time in the last four years. They would secure a playoff position, but they would also be on the road for the first game, and a third game as well if the series goes to three games.
While the team has definitely been playing a lot better as of late, I think this last seven-match run is a difficult one and the Lions will have to really push to do even as well as I predicted, which is only earning 11 of a possible 21 points. They have it in them to make a run. Let’s hope they come back from this bye week ready to roar and rub my prediction right in my face.
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