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Orlando City vs. New York Red Bulls: Final Score 1-1 as Red Bulls Steal Points Deep in Stoppage; Lions Clinch Playoff Spot

Lions were seconds from a huge road victory when disaster struck, but Orlando City still clinched its first-ever MLS playoff berth.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC

Brian White’s spinning shot trickled just inside the far post in the 95th minute to steal two points from Orlando City in a 1-1 draw at Red Bull Arena. Nani had put Orlando City (8-2-8, 32 points) ahead on a penalty kick in the second half, and the Lions had only seconds left to see out. They had just cleared a corner kick when the ball found its way to exactly the wrong spot at the wrong time, allowing the New York Red Bulls (7-8-4, 25 points) to equalize.

Orlando was able to clinch its first-ever MLS playoff spot, however, as Toronto FC scored late to beat Atlanta United, giving the Lions enough points to finish above the line in 2020.

Despite now going winless in three games, Orlando is unbeaten in 12 (6-0-6), but a lack of goal scoring and tired legs — without the ability to rotate players — is starting to catch up with the Lions. Orlando finishes the season series 1-0-1 against the Red Bulls and 5-6-2 in the all-time series.

“Well, we can talk about the frustration with what happened in the last minute — the moment when we dropped the points,” Orlando City Head Coach Oscar Pareja said after the game. “I have to calm down and see all the positive things that the boys did today. Again, they dominated in the first half. The second half was normal, especially at the end, when New York was throwing bodies up front and trying to cross balls and all those things. We tried to settle the game and we couldn’t, but we keep going.”

Pareja used the same lineup as Wednesday’s match vs. New York City FC, with Brian Rowe in goal behind a back line of Kamal Miller, Robin Jansson, Antonio Carlos, and Ruan. Joey DeZart and Junior Urso manned the central midfield behind an attacking midfield line of Nani, Andres Perea, and Chris Mueller, with Daryl Dike up top.

The Red Bulls controlled about the first nine minutes of the match, keeping Orlando hemmed in its own half of the pitch. But the Lions did well to defend and break up play, allowing no real chances during that time.

Orlando’s first sustained foray into the attacking third resulted in a half chance, with Nani looping a cross in for Mueller but the ball was played too close to goalkeeper Ryan Meara. Mueller and Meara collided and a foul was given New York’s way.

Caden Clark sent a rocket shot over Rowe’s bar in the 16th minute after he was given too much time and space outside the area. After the Lions couldn’t capitalize on a couple of decent crosses, the Red Bulls worked a corner kick in for Tom Barlow but his header was weakly hit and right at Rowe in the 23rd minute. Daniel Royer fired a weak shot from the top of the box at Rowe three minutes later.

The Lions had a great chance in the 29th after Ruan won a free kick near the right sideline. Nani sent in a gorgeous cross that Mueller was lining up for a free header but Dike came from the other side and tried to get onto it and his presence threw off the shot. Mueller’s header ended up well off target.

A minute later Nani lined up a shot at the top of the area but didn’t get all of it and Meara made a comfortable save.

In the 34th minute, Mueller crossed at the top of the area and Urso corralled it and fired a shot. Unfortunately, the Brazilian didn’t get it all and it skipped weakly wide of goal.

The best chance came in the 41st minute when Jansson launched a perfect long ball for Nani to run onto. The captain broke in alone down the left and blasted a shot but Meara fought it off with a big save.

The Red Bulls got the last shot of the half in the 44th when Ruan’s throw-in was turned over in the Orlando half. Florian Valot tried his luck from outside the area but hit his shot wide, and the teams went to the break locked in a scoreless draw.

Orlando City had more shot attempts (5-4), with each team getting two on target in the opening half. The Lions had more corners (3-1), more possession (54.7%-45.3%), and more accurate passing (78%-72%). But, as the passing rates indicate, it was a sloppy, and defensive-minded first half.

The Lions grabbed the lead 10 minutes after the restart. Dike shredded New York’s defense, slicing through multiple defenders and into the penalty area. Once he got there, he tried to move around former Lion Amro Tarek, who made heavy contact with the rookie striker. Referee Drew Fischer pointed to the spot immediately. Nani stepped up, stutter stepped, then slotted the spot kick home in the 56th minute to put Orlando ahead.

“I turned and I saw that I had some space,” Dike said. “So I kind of decided I wanted to go toward the [end line] to try to get in a cross and fortunately I got fouled. Nani came in, calm, cool, and collected, and had a good penalty and he scored.”

It was the first penalty in league play this season for Orlando City and Nani’s fifth goal of the season, but the rookie’s incisive run set it up.

“What Dike did today is another demonstration of the way he’s progressed as a forward,” Pareja said. “He looked great today. I’m happy for him.”

The Red Bulls turned up the heat after that and threw numbers forward. Center backs Tarek and Tim Parker continually joined in the attack, keeping Orlando from breaking out of its own end. Still, most of the time the Lions were able to turn back New York’s attack without facing a shot.

The Red Bulls got a good opportunity in the 62nd minute when Perea conceded a free kick straight out from goal, but Valot sent his free kick well over the crossbar.

Orlando went looking for a second goal on the counter in the 67th minute with a good buildup on an excellent passing sequence from Dike to Perea to Mueller. Unfortunately, Cash needed a touch to settle the ball and by the time he fired his shot, the defense had recovered in time to block it.

New York kept coming, but Orlando did well to defend crosses and push the Red Bulls into wide areas. There weren’t many dangerous opportunities, but with so much New York possession, it sometimes seemed like it. A chance appeared in the 72nd minute but substitute Samuel Tetteh hit his shot wide.

The Red Bulls then got two more set pieces in good spots on a legit foul on Perea and an extremely soft one on Urso. Nothing happened on the first, but Rowe made a good save on the second in the 77th minute to protect the lead.

Still, the Lions looked to counter when they could and substitute Kyle Smith — who came on for Ruan after the Brazilian took a heavy challenge from Tarek — sent in a cross for Nani, but the captain’s header was off target in the 81st minute.

DeZart joined the parade of injuries just before the end of regular time, leaving the game while holding his hamstring. Alex De John came on for him to try to see out six minutes of stoppage time, which seemed a bit much.

The Lions got the first good scoring opportunity in the added time, with Nani laying off for Urso at the top of the box but the shot was blocked by Parker.

New York got a couple of late corners and Orlando dealt with them, but the last one only protected the lead for a moment. The ball was knocked to the top of the area where a shot was blocked by Urso and bounced out about halfway between the top of the box and midfield, where Jason Pendant tried a desperation long-range shot. Pendant hit the ball poorly, but it ended up at the feet of White, who turned and fired through traffic and the ball slipped through the bodies and inside the back post for the heartbreaking equalizer.

“It was a corner, where we cleared them,” Pareja said. “The guy who hit the ball — he missed the ball. He just kicked it somewhere and it arrived with the forward.”

The Red Bulls immediately pushed for a game winner after the restart, but Orlando turned them over and the Lions were starting a possibly dangerous transition attack when Fischer blew the final whistle at just a few seconds beyond the original six.

Behind all of the pressure they could muster over the final 40 minutes, the Red Bulls turned the box score completely around, finishing with more shots (14-9), shots on target (4-3), corners (6-5), and possession (58.8%-41.2%), and the better passing accuracy (77%-72%).

“New York is not an easy place to come and play on the road,” Miller said. “They really turn up the intensity and it’s really a dogfight here, so for us to come in here and take them all the way to the dying seconds of the game shows how invested we are as a team defensively, everyone working hard, and that’s just football. Sometimes the ball bounces their way and that’s what happened.

“We clinched playoffs but we’re still not happy with the way we clinched playoffs. We feel like we need to start turning these draws into three points.”


Orlando City will be on the road again for its next match as the Lions head south to face Inter Miami on Saturday.

Opinion

Pedro Gallese’s Recent Form No Surprise

Pedro Gallese’s recent solid form isn’t anything new, you just need to know where to look.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

One of the more frustrating narratives surrounding Orlando City at the beginning of the season was the assertion that goalkeeper Pedro Gallese was playing poorly and was costing the Lions points. The main point of emphasis from the detractors was the Lions’ 4-2 opening day loss to the Philadelphia Union, although he also got a lot of flak for his performances against Toronto FC, and during the 2-1 loss to New York City FC. That criticism has started to get quieter in recent weeks, particularly after he made the bench of the most recent MLS Team of the Matchday, but I don’t think he was playing nearly as poorly as some people made him out to be at the start of the season, and his recent performances haven’t come out of nowhere.

So let’s talk about those two big supposed “black marks” on his 2025 resume. Most of the chatter came from the opening game against the Union, with him coming in for criticism in two instances here, and here. I want to specifically address the mention of Gallese allowing six goals on 2.9 post-shot expected goals. Listen, I don’t actually have a problem with the xG stat the way some people do, and I truly think it can be incredibly useful when used properly in certain contexts. I just don’t think the numbers tell the full story here.

Against the Union, three goals came from inside or on the edge of the six-yard box, and were one-touch finishes. Gallese realistically had no chance on two of them (the first and fourth goals), and while the other one came from an acute angle and was mostly right at him, the ball is still coming so fast and from such a short distance that it still feels a bit nitpicky to place the blame entirely on him. Yes, he arguably could have done better, but there are plenty of goalkeepers in this league that aren’t saving that.

The other goal of the night came from a Rodrigo Schlegel error and a first touch shot from the edge of the box that came as El Pulpo was already moving laterally across his goal to shift with the rest of his defense, only for the shot to be heading for the opposite side of the net. Despite the distance the shot is coming from, that one also feels harsh to blame him for in my book. Again, I love xG when it’s used properly, but I just don’t think this is a fair application, as it doesn’t take into account where Gallese is at the time of the turnover-produced shot — only the shooter’s location. I find it pretty hard to look at each one of those goals and honestly say that he should save them. To me, there’s a big difference between something a goalkeeper could do more to save and something they should do more to save.

The other two goals out of the aforementioned six came against Toronto FC, and honestly it’s hard for me to put a ton of blame on him for either of them. The first came off a corner and was a header from inside the six-yard box, and although he should maybe do better considering the angle of the shot and his placement in the goal, the final shot comes from about three yards away. I’m sorry, but that just requires excellent reaction time, and while it’s the sort of shot that we do see saved in MLS sometimes, I’m not sure it’s one that we should expect to see saved. TFC’s final goal of the night was a great strike from distance in the bottom corner that also came through a few bodies, which meant Gallese didn’t see it until fairly late on. Again, to me this is a shot that he could do more to save, but not one that he should do more to save, and that’s an important distinction.

Honestly, the most justified criticism I’ve seen probably comes from here, when speaking about the 2-1 loss to NYCFC. Gallese gave up a huge rebound for the hosts’ second and eventual game-winning goal. Frankly, it wasn’t great at all and it ended up costing Orlando City a point. That being said, he did still make seven saves in that game and kept the Lions in it with a chance to salvage a late point.

Aside from the error against NYCFC though, El Pulpo has largely been mistake free and pretty blameless for the three goals he’s conceded. One was a penalty kick against the New York Red Bulls, and the second was a one-touch finish from about three yards away which also came against the Red Bulls. Go back and watch the film, and you won’t be shocked to hear that I hold him blameless for both. The goal he surrendered against the LA Galaxy wasn’t great, as Christian Ramirez’s flick isn’t exactly traveling at light speed. But, the shot also goes the opposite way of which Gallese’s momentum is already carrying him, so that’s something to consider. Aside from the rebound against NYCFC, this is the one goal he’s given up in 2025 that I really think he should have done better with.

The Peruvian has gotten a lot of praise (and rightly so) for the three straight clean sheets he’s kept in Orlando’s last three games. He’s made 11 saves during that time and got absolutely peppered late against Montreal, when Orlando went down to 10 men (again!). But he’s been making saves all year long, and the one game he didn’t register any (the season opener), was also a game where you can make a real argument that he couldn’t have done a better job of attempting to stop the ball going in than he already did. His save percentage of 73% is 19th out of 33, which is close to bang average; and his clean sheet percentage of 37.5% is tied for ninth.

Oh, and if we want to bring post-shot expected goals back into this, then let’s look at his post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed (PSxG-GA). PSxG-GA uses expected goals to provide a stat that is based on how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot. The number can be either positive or negative, with a positive number suggesting either a better-than-average shot-stopping ability, or a goalkeeper that’s been luckier than most. Gallese’s PSxG-GA of 1.7 is tied for 13th out of 49 goalkeepers, which ain’t half bad, is it? It’s worth mentioning that some of the rankings are skewed by keepers who only spent a small amount of time on the field and either let in a ton of goals or very few, but that’s the funny thing about raw stats — they need context.


At the end of the day, I’m not trying to sit here and say that Gallese has been flawless this season, is completely blameless for each and every one of the goals he’s conceded, and that every ounce of criticism that’s come his way has been unfair. There are absolutely goals that he should have done a better job on, but even at the time they were written, I think some of the assertions that he was a massive weak point for the Lions were overblown and not properly justified. He’s had a few shaky moments, like any keeper, but the defense in front of him wasn’t doing him any favors at times, and he was still regularly making saves to keep Orlando City in games. While it’s nice that he’s finally getting some plaudits, he’s had himself a perfectly fine 2025 season for the most part. You just have to take the time to look.

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Lion Links

Lion Links: 4/25/25

Orlando City gets ready for Atlanta United, Luiz Muzzi and Ricardo Moreira promoted, NWSL MVP candidates, and more.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Happy Friday! Today starts three straight days of Orlando soccer to enjoy, so make sure to plan your weekend accordingly. It was a fairly fast week for me, and I was able to read three books somehow. Before we dive into today’s links, let’s all wish a very happy 21st birthday to Orlando City winger Nicolas Rodriguez!

Orlando City Gets Ready for Rivalry Match

The Lions are back in action Saturday night against rival Atlanta United in what should be one of the more interesting matchups of the weekend. Both teams are looking for answers on offense heading into this match, as Orlando is coming off of three straight scoreless draws and Atlanta hasn’t won since March. Taking on a rival at home could be just what’s needed for the Lions to jumpstart their attack and return to the form they had earlier this season. Head Coach Oscar Pareja spoke on how it’s an important game to win for Orlando, as well as how the offense needs to exercise some calmness to finish its chances.

Orlando City Promotes Luiz Muzzi and Ricardo Moreira

Luiz Muzzi and Ricardo Moreira were both promoted by Orlando City, with Moreira taking over as the club’s general manager and sporting director and Muzzi becoming senior advisor to ownership, global soccer ventures. It’s a natural step up for Moreira, who joined the club in 2018 and has helped build a competitive roster that’s made the playoffs for the past five seasons. Muzzi’s new role is a bit of a mouthful, but he’ll be taking on an advisory role focused on the growth of the club while working closely with ownership.

“I am truly grateful to have had the opportunity to serve as Orlando City Soccer Club’s EVP of Soccer Operations and General Manager for seven seasons, and I am excited to continue my journey with the club in this new role,” said Luiz Muzzi. “I look forward to working alongside the Wilf family and the leadership team to help shape the future of the club and its continued success, both on and off the field, and I know Orlando City’s Soccer Operations will be in great hands under Ricardo’s leadership.”

Orlando Pride Players in the NWSL MVP Hunt

Now that we’re over a month into the NWSL season, ESPN‘s Jeff Kassouf highlighted the league’s early MVP candidates, and there are a couple of familiar faces in his rankings. Orlando Pride forward Barbra Banda is predictably in the mix in sixth on the list, as she has three goals and an assist to her name so far. But a surprise inclusion is midfielder Haley McCutcheon, who has impressed on both sides of the ball to earn ninth place in the rankings. While I think the MVP race will ultimately be between scorers like Banda, Temwa Chawinga, Ashley Hatch, and Debinha, it’s pretty great to see McCutcheon receive deserved praise for her performance this year.

MLS Transfer News Roundup

The transfer deadline may be over for MLS clubs, but deals that crossed the finish line are still coming in. The Columbus Crew added yet another forward by sending up to $1.2 million to the Houston Dynamo in exchange for Aliyu Ibrahim. The 23-year-old will maintain his U22 Initiative Player status in Columbus and recorded 12 goals and nine assists across 90 appearances for Houston. LAFC signed 26-year-old midfielder Ryan Raposo, who spent the past five seasons with the Vancouver Whitecaps and was a free agent this year. St. Louis City also made things official with Simon Becher by making his loan move a permanent one so that he stays with the club.

Free Kicks


That’s all I have for you this time around. Mother’s Day is less than a month away, just as a warning. If the mothers in your life like romance books and you’re looking for a gift, I can’t recommend The Rom-Commers by Katherine Center enough. Have a great Friday!

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Orlando City

Orlando City Was Hot, But Now Is Not — An Explanation

A comparison of the Lions’ start to the season vs. recent form.

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Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Years ago, back during the early days of the new millennium, one of the first websites to ever “go viral” was the matchmaking site AmIHotOrNot.com. I, of course, never visited this site, as I had access to a mirror on the wall and already knew who was the fairest of them all (not me, the mirror was pretty clear about that). But as a college student during those years, I knew of the site and how it quickly was getting millions of views per day. Today’s topic is related to hot and not, but it is the significantly more important topic of Orlando City’s performance on the field during the 2025 season.

During the first six games of the season, the Lions looked better than any previous Orlando City team in the club’s MLS era in terms of early season offensive prowess. The squad led the league in goals scored, the Designated Players were scoring or contributing to nearly every goal, and with Duncan McGuire still to return to add even more firepower, it seemed like there might be the possibility of running out of purple smoke to shoot off in front of The Wall with how many goals Orlando City was scoring.

And then, with apologies to Prince, purple flames were doused by purple rain, and we found out what it sounds like when Lions fans cry. To understand why the offense went from 2.5 goals scored per game to being shut out in three straight matches for the first time since 2018 we need to first consider whether the start to the season was an aberration itself, and had our expectations misaligned for how this team would perform for the rest of the season. Let’s take a look at how the first six games of 2025 compared with the second half of the 2024 regular season (17 games):

Metric2024 Final 172025 First 6
Goals per Game2.52.5
Shots on Target per Game5.65.5
Shots on Target %40%35%
Goal Conversions per Shot on Target44%45%
Medium + Long Passes Completed per Game215208
Medium + Long Pass Completion %81%80%
Completed Crosses + Switches per Game21.421.0
Progressive Carries + Passes per Game64.657.3
Points Earned per Game2.061.67

For the most part it looks like the beginning of the 2025 season picked right up where the 2024 regular season ended (I intentionally excluded the 2024 playoffs from the data because playoff games tend to be played differently than regular-season games). There were some major changes in personnel from 2024 to 2025, but even with the changes in players, the style of play and the formation used by Orlando City remained the same, and most of the offensive stats are nearly exactly the same. Six games is a decent enough sample size to say that those stats from 2025 were not a fluke, and the offensive output that we saw in the second half of the 2024 season could be reasonably expected to continue at a similar pace.

But then it did not. Oh boy has it not. Looking at the same chart, but comparing the 2025 first six games to the 2025 most recent three matches gets an immediate “not hot” vote and is as ugly as a Bubba Sparxxx song.

Metric2025 First 62025 Last 3
Goals per Game2.50.0
Shots on Target per Game5.53.0
Shots on Target %35%31%
Goal Conversions per Shot on Target45%0%
Medium + Long Passes Completed per Game208171
Medium + Long Pass Completion %80%74%
Completed Crosses + Switches per Game21.012.6
Progressive Carries + Passes per Game57.342.0
Points Earned per Game1.671.0

The sharp-eyed observer will note that red cards are not noted anywhere above, and in those last three games Orlando City played nearly 50 minutes with only 10 players. In both of the games when a red card (the ultimate sum of two yellow cards by the same player) was given, Orlando City was ahead in expected goals at the moment the red card was issued, and while those do not count for anything officially, they indicate who was getting shots off from more dangerous locations. I thought Orlando City seemed more likely to score and take all three points in both games up until the dismissal of a player. Instead, of course, the Lions went down a player and immediately had to pivot to a more defensive posture, and with one fewer player on the field, they could not play (or at least maintain) the same style as they had been.

In addition to playing far more conservatively, in both games Orlando City substituted on a defender for a key attacking player within four minutes of the red card, removing Marco Pašalić in the game against New York and Luis Muriel in the game against Montréal. This was effectively a double negative, and not in the way that turns two negatives into a positive. It was more like f(x) = -2x, a function with a slope of -2 and…let me stop right there. It was bad, and hurt the offense to remove a key playmaker and goal scorer.

Another major issue is that the midfield engine of César Araújo and Eduard Atuesta have played a combined 11 minutes in the last three games, and all 11 of those minutes were played by Atuesta in the game against New York and after the red card. Araújo’s absence has definitely been felt, but as he is more of a deep-lying player and defensive destroyer, the team has been able to adequately replace him, but Atuesta’s offensive talents have been sorely missed. Atuesta may not have many goal contributions, but he is second on the team in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes (4.62) and first on the team in goal-creating actions per 90 minutes (1.20). That 1.20 is the highest in club history (fbref.com only has tracking back to 2018, so apologies to the legend Kaká) among players who played at least 500 minutes in a season, and it is nearly 50% higher than the player in second place in that stat, Mauricio Pereyra in 2020, when he averaged 0.82.

Might it be nice to be able to play a player who is creating a goal every 90 minutes? I think so. Joran Gerbet has played well, especially for a rookie, and specially especially (just go with it) for a rookie in the mentally and physically demanding role of a central midfielder. He has a ton of potential, but he is not yet as productive a player as Atuesta and when the Colombian playmaker returns the offense will get back a key cog that will help to create good shots, and in a game like soccer the difference between a goal and a miss is often a matter of inches, and a slightly better delivery on the pass can turn a shot into a shot on target and a shot on target into a goal.

Is it really as simple as just red cards and injuries, and that if Orlando City can keep its full complement of players on the field and get back some injured players, everything will go from not hot to hot again? Perhaps, but I think there is a style of play change that has also been causing some of the recent issues. I included rows on the charts above on the aggregation of completed crosses and switches (as in switches of the field) per game and medium and long passes completed per game, and from that chart you can see that the numbers are much lower in the last three games as compared to the beginning of this season and the final half of last season.

Those drops coincide with Rafael Santos playing only 59 minutes in the last three games, and with Alex Freeman not being able to get into the attack in the same way as he was in the season-opening games. There definitely is some overlap here with playing down a player and needing to keep defensive players back, but Santos’ offensive contributions (he is currently 20th in MLS in completed crosses + switches per 90 minutes), and even just the threat of him playing a long ball across the field to change the point of attack, have been missed by the Orlando City offense with him off the field. David Brekalo is an excellent defender, but his offensive contributions are more tied to his ability to win balls in the air, whereas Santos is among the league leaders in crosses and switches per 90 minutes, with Freeman one of his primary targets.

Brekalo playing left back certainly helped shore up a defense that had been leaking goals, and Santos was a major contributor to that with some poor defensive performances, but that tradeoff has removed a major threat to the Orlando City offense. Freeman’s reduction in offensive contributions has not helped, but I think the loss of Santos’ early crosses, long switches, and overlapping runs contributed more to the nearly 400-minute dry spell without a goal from open play. The Lions need him to find his form again, though he will not be able to do it against Atlanta, as he will be suspended.

Three games without a goal is unpleasant as a fan, but Orlando City battled in all three games and at least came away with a point. The defense is playing well, and despite many injuries, the Lions are still very much in the playoff hunt as the season approaches the one-third mark. There are legitimate reasons for the recent offensive swoon, and Araújo and Atuesta will likely be back shortly, and McGuire also may soon be able to start a game and offer a different offensive look. Ramiro Enrique heated up once spring turned to summer in 2024, and when all four of those players are back to full health, the team will once again have a deep roster full of players aggressively competing for minutes.

Óscar Pareja historically has used the first half of a season to find his preferred lineup for the stretch run of the season, and I believe this is another season when he will be playing the long game and seeing what he has at his disposal. The red cards and injuries provided short-term pain in terms of points dropped, but they will likely also provide long-term gain with the view into how the players play in different positions and combinations.

It is a long season, with two cup competitions still to start, in addition to 25 more regular-season games, and summer does not even start until June. I expect that a lot of the issues from the recent run of games will work themselves out with time. We just need to keep our cool and wait for the inevitable Orlando City late season hot streak.

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