Connect with us

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. San Jose Earthquakes: Player Grades and Man of the Match

Published

on

Orlando City won 5-0 in a dominant performance at home against the San Jose Earthquakes Tuesday night. Nani got the scoring started from a penalty and then Benji Michel and Daryl Dike both had braces as the Lions have now scored the most goals of any team in the Eastern Conference, with 16.

The Lions are riding high after the win, but how did each player perform? Here are your player grades from the match, as well as who earned the title of Man of the Match.

Starters

GK, Brandon Austin, 6.5 — In his second start as a Lion, Austin didn’t have to make a save until first-half stoppage time. Javier Lopez fired a rocket from outside the box, but Austin managed to jump and make a great save to deny him. That was Austin’s only save of the match as San Jose didn’t manage to put any of its other 11 shots on target. With the result, Austin gets his first clean sheet as a Lion. He completed 81.3% of his passes and three of his six long balls and, importantly, didn’t spill the wet ball when handling San Jose’s crosses.

D, Joao Moutinho, 6 — Moutinho only played the first half and had 24 touches as Orlando’s wingers handled most of the work on the sides of the pitch. He made 17 passes at a 76% success rate and had a tackle and an interception. On short rest after playing 90 minutes Saturday, it made sense for Oscar Pareja to take Moutinho off and we may see more of him this Friday in Miami.

D, Robin Jansson, 7 — There was a bit of a scary moment in the 29th minute when Moutinho’s clearance smacked Jansson right in the head at close range. The medical staff came on to check him out and he went the distance without any issues. Jansson led the team with a whopping five clearances, putting an end to many of San Jose’s attempts to get back in the match. The Beefy Swede also had a tackle and an interception while tying Andres Perea for the most touches on the team with 59. He did well building out of the back with 50 total passes at a 92% success rate.

D, Antonio Carlos, 7 — It was Carlos’ ninth start this season and the fifth time he’s guided Orlando’s defense to a shutout in 2021. Carlos made three defensive blocks, including one early on that could’ve given Austin trouble and potentially change the momentum of the game. The Brazilian center back also had two tackles, two clearances, and an interception to help stop the Earthquakes right in their tracks. Carlos made a key pass in the 88th minute, sending Benji Michel down the field in transition. It was another solid night for Carlos and he finished third on the team with 55 touches and was successful on 89% of his 46 passes.

D, Kyle Smith, 6.5 — The fullback started on the right and then shifted to the left side for the second half as he continues to impress this season with his versatility. It was a quieter game than usual for Smith as he had just 36 touches, one tackle, and one cross that ended up unsuccessful. But a quiet night for a defender in a shutout win is hardly a bad thing and he completed 93% of his 28 passes. His ability to play on either side allowed Pareja to sub off Moutinho and he’s played every minute this season to help cover Orlando’s lack of depth at fullback.

MF, Junior Urso, 6 — It may have just been due to the rainy conditions at Exploria Stadium, but Urso was sloppy at times in the first half and had some miscues when passing. But in the 44th minute after the weather delay, he made a key pass in on goal that Dike shot just wide. Two of Urso’s three shots were deflected and the third was sent wide after he didn’t make clean contact. He was subbed off for Mauricio Pereyra in the 56th minute and ended the night with 35 touches, 29 passes at an 83% success rate, a tackle, and one successful dribble.

MF, Andres Perea, 6.5 — It was another full shift for Perea while filling in for Sebas Mendez in the midfield. The 20-year-old had two shots, sending one wide and the other right at goalkeeper JT Marcinkowski. He tied Jansson for a team-high in both touches (59) and passes (50), completing the latter at an 84% rate as he connected Orlando’s offense and defense. Defensively, Perea pitched in with two tackles, including a good one late in the match that ended a San Jose opportunity.

MF, Chris Mueller 7 — Although he is still on the hunt for his first goal of the season, Mueller had his fourth assist of the season. He played the ball into a dangerous area in the box for Michel to pounce on. He had just 32 touches and 26 passes at a 77% success rate over the course of 77 minutes of action, but he was still effective on offense and led the team with four key passes. His only attempted cross wasn’t successful and he had a good opportunity after a set piece from the training ground that sent the ball to him in front of goal, but nothing came of it. While he didn’t have a shot in this one as concerns grow over his scoring drought, Mueller is quietly tied with Tesho Akindele for most assists on the team this season, with four, and tied with Mauricio Pereyra for most key passes with 13.

MF, Benji Michel 9 (MotM) — It didn’t take long for Michel to make an impact in the match, using his speed and some silky footwork to breeze past Judson and draw a late tackle from Florian Jungwirth for a penalty in the sixth minute. Nani converted the penalty for an early lead and Michel scored one for himself in the 16th minute. Mueller played a ball in on goal and Michel surged past Paul Marie’s attempt to shield him and poked the ball past Marcinkowski before the goalkeeper could collect it.

In the 90th minute, with victory already assured, Michel was still hungry to score and got his brace after powering the ball into the bottom right corner from close range. Michel led the team with five shots, putting three on target, and was successful on three of his four attempted dribbles. While he was only dispossessed once, Michel did hold the ball too long at times as defenders clogged passing lanes and left him without options. The Homegrown Player also had a key pass, a clearance, 33 touches, and was successful on all but one of his 16 passes (94.4%). While most of the offense thrived in this one, Michel is our Man of the Match for setting the tone early on and directly contributing to three of Orlando’s five goals.

F, Nani, 8.5 — The captain was as cool as can be when scoring from the spot, cleanly tucking the ball into the bottom left corner. While it won’t be in a highlight reel like some of his other goals this season, it was great to see him convert after two post-season penalty misses in the recent past. Nani reveled in the open spaces the Earthquakes allowed, although their defense did well preventing him from cutting back in front of goal and blocked his only attempted cross in open play. Nani’s best moment of the match came on the team’s third goal when he sent a sublime ball through a tight window between defenders for Dike to put it away. In the second half, he got his second assist of the night from a free kick service for Dike’s second goal.

He played 71 minutes and ended the night with three key passes, a shot on target, and three successful dribbles. Nani finished fourth on the team in touches, with 43, and had 33 passes at a 73% success rate in another strong performance since his suspension.

F, Daryl Dike, 9 —  Dike spoke with Pareja and Nani on the sideline while Jansson was receiving treatment and then the two players connected for a goal just a few minutes later. In the 31st minute, Dike made a strong run to reach a perfect pass from Nani and, after a great first touch that got him around Marcinkowski, he scored with his left foot from a tough angle for his first goal of the season. His second goal came in the 49th minute when he got his head on Nani’s cross off of a set piece and powered it home.

Dike honestly could have scored even more goals in this one as he looked lethal no matter how difficult the angle. He was subbed off in the 71st minute and finished with four shots, with only one off target. Dike was successful on eight of his 12 passes and had 24 touches as well in his first start of the season.

Substitutes

D, Michael Halliday (45’), 7 — The Homegrown Player came out of the gate in the second half like a man possessed. He sprinted down the field to earn a corner for the Lions and then won a foul that led to Orlando’s set piece goal. It was definitely his best game as a Lion so far and he led the team in tackles, with three, while adding two clearances as well. On offense, he attempted three crosses but none found their target and he’ll need to work on getting those past the first defender. He ended the game with 23 touches and completed seven of his nine passes. Cade Cowell beat him a few times, but it was a great outing for Halliday as he received important minutes.

MF, Mauricio Pereyra (55’), 7 — Coming off the bench for the first time this season, Pereyra nearly scored in stoppage time with a good look in front of goal, but his shot hit the woodwork. He had two key passes as well, but neither Perea nor Tesho Akindele could put their shots on frame. He managed a secondary assist on Michel’s second goal. Still, Pereyra did well to keep the Lions’ offense roaring until the final whistle. The Uruguayan finished with 31 touches and completed 22 of his 27 passes.

MF, Alexander Alvarado (71’), 6 — Alvarado had a nice cross that found Pereyra and then Akindele, but Alvarado otherwise didn’t make much of an impact in the match. He did deflect a shot from outside the box, but was also dispossessed twice. It was his longest appearance yet as a Lion and he had 17 touches and completed nine of his 10 passes.

F, Tesho Akindele (71’), 7 — Coming on to replace Dike, Akindele did well creating chances up top for the Lions. He got his fourth assist of the year by laying the ball off to Michel for the team’s final goal and nearly had another assist but Pereyra hit the post. Akindele’s only shot of the match was sent just over the bar and he finished with 11 touches and a 78% passing rate on nine total passes.

MF, Uri Rosell (77’), 6.5 — Rosell completed 12 of his 13 passes in his season debut, including a pair of long balls to help spark Orlando’s offense. He also had an interception and 15 touches as Pareja eases him back into action. It was nice seeing him back out there on the field to anchor Orlando’s central midfield.


That’s how I saw everyone’s performance, but what did you see in Orlando’s biggest win so far this season? Let us know in the comments below and make sure to vote for your Man of the Match as well.

Polling Closed

PlayerVotes
Benji Michel72
Daryl Dike37
Nani8
Robin Jansson0
Antonio Carlos0
Kyle Smith5
Other (please tell us who in the comments section below)2

Orlando City

Converting More Big Chances Could Propel Orlando City’s Season Into An Epic Universe

An analysis of Orlando City’s conversion rate on big chances and an evaluation of the impact of a small improvement .

Published

on

Dan MacDonald, The Mane Land

If you could all hop in the Wayback Machine with me, I would like to take you all the way back to Sunday, May 18, 2025. It was a glorious day, punctuated by a 3-0 victory over Orlando City’s southern rivals Inter Miami. The Five Takeaways article about that game was pretty awesome too, and in that article, the dashingly handsome and spellbindingly brilliant author noted that Orlando City “could, and probably should, have scored five or even six goals” against Miami.

You probably surmised that the author of that Five Takeaways article was me, and I appreciate your immediate recognition of my handsomeness and brilliance. I am also pretty confident that you believe that Orlando City should have scored more than three goals as well, and I am here to tell you that the eye test and the tracking data agree. The wonderful site fotmob.com tracks a statistic coded by analysts from Opta called “big chances,” which they define on their frequently asked questions page as:

A situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually in a one on one scenario or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal and there is low to moderate pressure on the shooter. Penalties are always considered big chances.

The key words in their definition are “reasonably be expected,” and so, while the word ‘expected’ is in this definition, do not confuse “reasonably be expected” with “expected goals” (xG). I think of expected goals more like a geography problem, kind of like the game show Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego? Was that an excuse just to mention that one of my best friends was a contestant on that show in 1994 and won a trip to Orlando? A gentleman never tells.

Back to the geography problem, expected goals is really just a mapping exercise, mapping conversion percentages to locations all over a soccer field and then summing up all the shots taken from those locations in a game. By that measure, fbref.com had Orlando City with an xG of 2.9 against Miami, extremely close to the actual output of three goals. Earlier in the season, however, the xG tracking was 1.6 against Toronto…but the Lions scored four goals.

There are countless examples of the real results not matching the xG. While I value xG and just finished reading a great book called How To Win The Premier League: The Inside Story of Football (soccer)’s Data Revolution, which details the history of expected goals and how the author — the former director of research at Liverpool — helped build the first analytics department at a Premier League club using xG as a foundational measurement tool, I still think xG needs to be used alongside other measures and cannot stand alone by itself.

One of the main reasons I think it needs to be combined with other data is that xG requires a shot to be taken, and sometimes that does not happen. Consider Orlando City’s third goal against Miami, if Duncan McGuire’s cross had gone untouched then the xG on that play would have gone from 0.56 to 0.0, because without a shot attempt there is no shot location, and no map coordinates to use to find the xG for that area of the field.

This takes us back to that definition of big chances, which notably does not include a requirement for a shot to be taken. Duncan McGuire’s pass clearly created a chance to score, and that pass, combined with the perfectly timed run from Dagur Dan Thórhallsson, meant that Orlando City had a great opportunity to score from a location where anyone with eyes would think that “a player should reasonably be expected to score.” If Thórhallsson had whiffed, then the xG would have said no sir, you get 0.0 xG, even though everyone who watched that pass would have said, “Oh my, he should have scored that, what a big chance missed.”

Note: Thórhallsson did not miss, and it was glorious.

According to Opta’s tracking, Orlando City had eight big chances in the game against Miami. Which sounds closer to your memory of that match: Orlando City’s xG was 2.9 or Orlando City created eight big chances to score? I think most people probably think of the latter and remember the breakaways and the close-range opportunities and how it seemed like Orlando City had so many clear chances to score.

Looking at the 2025 season to date, the Lions are tied for the MLS lead with 50 big chances thus far, and just as against Miami, you can see that their conversion rate on those big chances has not been great:

ClubBig ChancesBig Chances ConvertedConversion Rate
San Jose502040%
Orlando City501428%
Chicago461839%
Columbus461430%
Nashville411229%
Vancouver402153%
LAFC391436%
Miami392051%
Minnesota391436%
Portland371643%
MLS Average*3412.437%
  • *The MLS Average is the average of every team except Orlando City

If you were wondering, yes, 28% is among the league’s worst conversion rates on big chances. It is tied for second worst, ahead of only Austin, which must be driving its fans up the wall with a 19% conversion rate on 31 big chances. Maybe the release of Wicked at the end of 2024 put the kibosh on good things happening to those in green for a while. Vancouver, on the other hand, is out there Burning Blue like Mariah the Scientist (contemporary pop song alert), converting a league-leading 53% of its big chances.

For Orlando City, however, 28% feels right. It feels terrible, but it also feels right. How many times did it seem like it would be harder not to score than to score, but then the Lions went ahead and did not score? Luis Muriel leads the team with 12 big chances missed (second most in MLS), and while it takes an extreme amount of skill and work to get into position to miss chances, the reality is that 12 times independent analysts thought Muriel should reasonably have been expected to score and he did not.

Anytime there is a lower-than-average performance there is always a question of whether that performance is reality or if there is a regression to the mean coming. In this case, regression to the mean would actually be positive, or something more akin to ascension to the mean. If Orlando City performs at a conversion rate similar to that of the rest of the league, the Lions will score about one additional goal per every 10 big chances, or an additional five goals over their next 50 big chances generated.

Considering that the Lions generated those 50 big chances in 14 games, it is easy math to double that and put Orlando City at 100 big chances after 28 games at the current pace. That extra five goals, were it to happen and the team continued to similarly convert its “small chances,” would net the team 32 goals in the next 14 games, and take the team to 59 after 28 games, with six more games still to play in the season.

Readers of UpRoar, the weekly newsletter for The Mane Land’s Buy Me a Coffee subscribers, which you can subscribe to by clicking this link, will know that Orlando City’s offense is already on pace to break the club’s MLS goal-scoring record, which is…wait for it…59 goals, and so, if the Lions could start converting more of their big chances, then the 2025 team could not only break that record but smash it — like, epically smash it like the Super Smash Brothers.

And speaking of…what better way to celebrate today’s official opening of Epic Universe but to imagine Óscar Pareja and the coaching staff out there training their goal-scoring dragons and super Marco and Luis-gi to tame the dark world of opposition defenses with their Harry Potter-esque offensive wizardry?

That would be epic, and if you are asking me what the coaching staff should do, that is what I pick.

Continue Reading

Orlando City

Orlando City vs. Nashville SC: Five Takeaways

Here’s what we learned from a regrettable 3-2 loss to Nashville SC in the U.S. Open Cup.

Published

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Orlando City came into the U.S. Open Cup Round of 16 match against Nashville SC riding a 12-match unbeaten streak, including a 3-0 thrashing of in-state rival Inter Miami on Sunday. The Lions’ next match against the Portland Timbers looms on Saturday. Despite the glut of matches, Orlando fielded most of the normal starters in an effort to advance. Unfortunately, the Lions fell 3-2 to the visitors to end any hopes of another Open Cup trophy. Here are my five takeaways from a disappointing midweek match.

Pasalic Power

Marco Pasalic decided he wanted to do it all himself on the first goal. As he has so often, he went up the right side before cutting in to the left and burying an absolute rocket of a shot into the back of the net to give Orlando City the early lead. It’s the type of goal we’ve come to expect from Pasalic since his arrival and it was his first U.S. Open Cup goal on his debut in the competition. Unfortunately, he’ll have to wait until at least next year for his next USOC match.

Tired Starters

One could see that the Orlando City defenders were running on tired legs. It seemed obvious in the two goals given up in the first half. The first goal bounced around in the box and then off of Rodrigo Schlegel for an own goal. On the second goal, no one stepped to Ahmed Qasem at the top of the box, allowing him to put an easy shot into the bottom right corner of the goal.

Alex Freeman was near Qasem, but had to anticipate a pass to the wing. Cesar Araujo trailed Qasem passively, and he was not in position to do anything when the Nashville attacker opted to take the space the defense gave him. On the left side, Nashville’s attackers torched David Brekalo from the start. The defense simply looked tired, including Araujo in central midfield.

Enrique’s Equalizer

Orlando City came back out after halftime looking much better on the ball. The tactical adjustments worked as the team pushed for an equalizer. Working along the right side of the attack, Freeman sent the ball to Pasalic, who smartly provided a one-touch pass to Ramiro Enrique for the finish. It was a well-worked attack and a beautiful finish.

Handball Debacle

In the 72nd minute, there was a handball in the box on Nashville’s Wyatt Meyer. Unfortunately, referee Joshua Encarnacion did not make the call. To make matters worse, he then gave Freeman a yellow card for dissent a little further down the field seconds later. There is no video review in the U.S. Open Cup, so there was no second look available to make the correct call. It was a double whammy of a situation. To then pour salt on the wound, Meyer scored Nashville’s third goal to give the visitors the lead again.

Taking it Too Seriously?

Oscar Pareja takes the U.S. Open Cup seriously. So seriously that he started most of the regulars despite the emotional and physical toll taken in the match against Inter Miami and the volume of minutes they’ve played throughout May every three days. Initially, it looked to be the right decision, but the two first-half goals by Nashville put that into question. The number of minutes played by some of the starters — who will need to play against the Portland Timbers this weekend — may turn one loss into two. That being said, I wanted Pareja to prioritize the Open Cup over the Leagues Cup, and we’ll find out in July and August if that’s the case.


Those are my takeaways from Orlando City’s 3-2 loss to Nashville in the U.S. Open Cup. It was a disappointing result on a night where Nashville didn’t bring their A-squad, but did bring its A-game.

Let us know your thoughts about the Nashville SC match in the comments below. Vamos Orlando!

Continue Reading

Lion Links

Lion Links: 5/22/25

Orlando City ousted from U.S. Open Cup, OCB’s Justin Ellis named Player of the Matchweek, Tottenham wins Europa League, and more.

Published

on

Image courtesy of Orlando City SC / Mark Thor

Well, that could have gone better. It’s understandable to feel a bit deflated after Wednesday night’s game, especially after so many positive Orlando City results as of late. The good news though is that we’re another day closer to a holiday weekend that should include some good times or at least rest and relaxation. Let’s dive into today’s links!

Orlando City Eliminated from U.S. Open Cup

The Lions lost 3-2 at home to Nashville SC in the U.S. Open Cup’s round of 16, ending the team’s run in the tournament. Orlando struck first in a rollercoaster of a match, and Ramiro Enrique pulled the Lions level after they fell behind, but rookie Wyatt Meyer scored the winner for the visitors. The loss snapped Orlando’s 12-game unbeaten streak across all competitions and Orlando looked like a team that played five other matches already this month. Orlando will need to shake off this loss as it prepares to host the Portland Timbers on Saturday.

Justin Ellis Named MLS NEXT Pro Player of the Matchweek

Orlando City B midfielder Justin Ellis was selected as MLS NEXT Pro Player of the Matchweek for his role in the team’s 3-0 win over Inter Miami II. Ellis, who turned 18 years old last week, assisted on both of OCB’s first two goals before scoring from the penalty spot himself. It’s been quite the year so far for Ellis, as he also scored six goals in the Generation Adidas Cup to help Orlando win the U-18 title in April. The Young Lions are back in action Friday with a road match against rival Atlanta United 2.

U.S. Open Cup Round of 16 Results

Comebacks were a theme throughout the U.S. Open Cup’s round of 16. Minnesota United took the lead, gave it up, and ultimately advanced thanks to defender Anthony Markanich scoring two late goals to beat St. Louis City 3-2 at Allianz Arena. Markanich was traded from St. Louis to Minnesota last year, adding a little salt in the wound for the visitors. D.C. United and Charlotte FC battled in a back-and-forth match that ended up with D.C. winning the penalty shootout after a 3-3 draw. The match between the New York Red Bulls and FC Dallas also went the distance, with the Red Bulls winning the shootout. The Philadelphia Union won 4-1 against the Pittsburgh Riverhounds to eliminate the last team from outside MLS. The draw for the quarterfinals will take place this morning.

Tottenham Hotspur Wins Europa League Final

Tottenham prevailed in this year’s Europa league final, winning 1-0 against Manchester United in Spain. Brennan Johnson’s goal was enough for Tottenham to end its 17-year wait for a major trophy. It was a bit of an underwhelming finish to what was a fairly exciting knockout stage, and this was United’s only loss in this year’s tournament. Tottenham has now qualified for next season’s Champions League despite currently being 17th in the English Premier League standings.

Free Kicks


That’s all I have for you this time around. I hope you all have a wonderful Thursday and rest of your week!

Continue Reading

Trending